Champions 2019 - Crisis on The Syndicate [GAME OVER]

[Michelle]

Don't know if this was addressed, but I was thinking...If sig potentially designed the levels, would he have risked sending the anti-monitor in the main thread , the only place where lynched people die?

ok i assume that's the list i wanted to look in cuz i remember that account telling us tsp and someone else was with sig

i think, ultimately, sig would've used the 3 man level for shading and bet on this very wifom. if we bit it, it takes a 50/50 to lynch his anti-monitor which would seem dumb from him.

I don't know if he'd risk it by putting him in main thread, so I think that he'd just place him in Michelle's hood thing.

I'll take a look at those peeps. But names that stick out upon PoE and shit are probably JJJ / Gman / Speed

Michelle

I remember [mention]Sloonei[/mention] had in the dream level a similar idea.

[Sloonei]

Jack, Dom, and juliets are not on Mac’s team. Everyone else is on the table as far as I’m concerned.

The anti-monitor is between Jay, Tony, Epi, or Dom for me. Dom seems the least likely of the bunch. I have no explicit reason to eliminate G-man, but I am not feeling that it’s him.

[Sloonei]

Don't know if this was addressed, but I was thinking...If sig potentially designed the levels, would he have risked sending the anti-monitor in the main thread , the only place where lynched people die?

ok i assume that's the list i wanted to look in cuz i remember that account telling us tsp and someone else was with sig

i think, ultimately, sig would've used the 3 man level for shading and bet on this very wifom. if we bit it, it takes a 50/50 to lynch his anti-monitor which would seem dumb from him.

I don't know if he'd risk it by putting him in main thread, so I think that he'd just place him in Michelle's hood thing.

I'll take a look at those peeps. But names that stick out upon PoE and shit are probably JJJ / Gman / Speed

Michelle

I remember Sloonei had in the dream level a similar idea.

Jay would leapfrog you as my anti-monitor suspect if this is the case.

[Sloonei]

Actually maybe there was something to my Michelle theory. I see no harm in bringing it up again. Who the hell knows at this point?
For reference:

Spoiler: show

This is my Michelle theory, for those who were not in our thread yesterday:

When the day began, Michelle had compiled a long chain of posts from speedchuck from this thread (the one we are all currently posting in) which she used to push a suspicion against The Chuck (and she would later walk back a fair amount of this case in a way that might have been dishonest, but that's not my main issue).

Speedchuck was one of just five people that Michelle shared that thread with. He also had apparently been singled out as a suspect by her coming into that day. This seemed either convenient or coincidental to me.

Separately, I had a theory that the events of yesterday were triggered by sig, as his role (The Architect) is derived from Inception Mafia, it contains secrets, and he was almost a sure bet to be lynched that coming day, so there would be no better time for him to trigger the hypothetical Inception event in his role card. IF this is the case (and that is an enormous if), then there are two people who would have known that the thread split was coming: sig and sig's partner. In the original Inception Mafia game (which Jay and I co-hosted), the mafia team was allowed limited control over which players submerged onto each dream level.

If sig's partner was preparing to submerge into a lower dream level, they would likely want to take a player with them who they could use as a scapegoat for suspicion, or someone who is unlikely to cast suspicion on them in particular. speedchuck could conceivably be a viable candidate for both of those things. So the theory is this: Michelle, as sig's partner/the anti-monitor, was aware that she was going to submerge into a smaller thread, and brought speedchuck with her, having pre-planned an attack against him for that day.

There are holes in this theory that I acknowledge: given that there was only one lynch yesterday (the top level/player with the most votes across all three levels) there should not have been much urgency for Michelle to need a scapegoat like this; it's also not at all impossible that Michelle suspected speedchuck and wanted to ISO him, and it was purely coincidental that they ended up in the same thread together. But the fact that Michelle had singularly prepared to launch an investigation against speedchuck yesterday (I asked her if she had compiled posts on anybody else and she said no) and then ended up in the same small group as him stood out to me as a remarkable coincidence.

But if the theory is that the anti-monitor was on level 2, then this thread’s evidence points more to Jay or G-man, I think. Certainly not speedchuck, and I’d be shocked if it was juliets. Maybe it is her.

[Sloonei]

Tony was in limbo with sig.

[TonyStarkPrime]

I’m going to die tonight

[juliets]

Actually maybe there was something to my Michelle theory. I see no harm in bringing it up again. Who the hell knows at this point?
For reference:

Spoiler: show

This is my Michelle theory, for those who were not in our thread yesterday:

When the day began, Michelle had compiled a long chain of posts from speedchuck from this thread (the one we are all currently posting in) which she used to push a suspicion against The Chuck (and she would later walk back a fair amount of this case in a way that might have been dishonest, but that's not my main issue).

Speedchuck was one of just five people that Michelle shared that thread with. He also had apparently been singled out as a suspect by her coming into that day. This seemed either convenient or coincidental to me.

Separately, I had a theory that the events of yesterday were triggered by sig, as his role (The Architect) is derived from Inception Mafia, it contains secrets, and he was almost a sure bet to be lynched that coming day, so there would be no better time for him to trigger the hypothetical Inception event in his role card. IF this is the case (and that is an enormous if), then there are two people who would have known that the thread split was coming: sig and sig's partner. In the original Inception Mafia game (which Jay and I co-hosted), the mafia team was allowed limited control over which players submerged onto each dream level.

If sig's partner was preparing to submerge into a lower dream level, they would likely want to take a player with them who they could use as a scapegoat for suspicion, or someone who is unlikely to cast suspicion on them in particular. speedchuck could conceivably be a viable candidate for both of those things. So the theory is this: Michelle, as sig's partner/the anti-monitor, was aware that she was going to submerge into a smaller thread, and brought speedchuck with her, having pre-planned an attack against him for that day.

There are holes in this theory that I acknowledge: given that there was only one lynch yesterday (the top level/player with the most votes across all three levels) there should not have been much urgency for Michelle to need a scapegoat like this; it's also not at all impossible that Michelle suspected speedchuck and wanted to ISO him, and it was purely coincidental that they ended up in the same thread together. But the fact that Michelle had singularly prepared to launch an investigation against speedchuck yesterday (I asked her if she had compiled posts on anybody else and she said no) and then ended up in the same small group as him stood out to me as a remarkable coincidence.

But if the theory is that the anti-monitor was on level 2, then this thread’s evidence points more to Jay or G-man, I think. Certainly not speedchuck, and I’d be shocked if it was juliets. Maybe it is her.

Sloonei, the theory about Michelle is dependent on scum being able to dictate who goes into the different levels. Do we have any evidence that that's the case? I thought in the original Inception design scum only picked what level they were going to, not who they would be with. Let me know if I've misunderstood this point.

[tedxtr]

In a world where sig is not told about whether this inception phase ends after one lynch, he has all the incentive to place himself in the 3rd realm.

Like, think about the actual odds of it. Let's say...Sig was not in full control of how the threads were designed. Okay, the odds of him being in the 3rd level are 3/17 which rounds up to 18% or so. (I could be wrong about the total number of players, I believe it was 17?)

Was he hit by pure luck here? :thonk:

[tedxtr]

By all means I'm not saying it to suggest Michelle is scum (I don't think she is) I just kind of want to clarify this, being useful, etc etc. 18% odds. Think mathematically.

If sig was the Architect and was going to die, he'd want to stall it as much as possible. 3 phases before he dies.

So, I believe he did have control over the threads, the actual important question here is : Did he know that this inception phase only lasts one phase?

[tedxtr]

Not to mention, I don't see a point for sig's role unless he had that choice. It's essentially a, what? Dice roll that escapes you one lynch? you have to dice roll for it? sounds unlikely.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Because you're mafia and running out of people to finger. (See what I did there?)

Absolute horseshit. I have been saying this about you for days. If all I wanted was an easy finger, there are numerous easier fingers than you. You're doing fuck all; you're going through the motions.

#2 is all fair enough, but we're in Night 6. I don't think that's good enough anymore. I also don't think he "seems good" as much as he "seems barely present". His time constraints are real, and they have no impact upon his role card. He has made moves in this game with plenty of capacity for "agenda" -- shitting on juliets in the earliest stage, building that big case for Colin yesterday, defending sig loudly while many others were doing the opposite -- to name a few.

So which team am I on? sig's or Mac's?

And fuck that yellowy mess up there, Mr. "Minimal-civilian-inspiration-and-compatibility-with-Mac-Turnip-Head-you-are-a-tragedy."

I think you're more likely to be on Mac's team. And defending sig in the manner you did is suitable -- you know he's not on Mac's team if you are, and that provides an avenue to ride the high road.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I want it to be Jay because these no pause between “we double lynched town” and trying to lynch Epi and Ted.....who are what D4 says should be scum.

Mixed messaging. Recommend restarting your computer.

That's kind of the point. We seem to live in a universe where neither TH nor Colin was a mafioso, and to me that sounds like a universe where defaulting to the "friendliest" lynches is no longer justified. This is the time to change gears.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

[mention]tedxtr[/mention] who is on Mac's team?

[tedxtr]

Speed, G-Man on masters team

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Speed, G-Man on masters team

Why?

[tedxtr]

Because the others are pretty town. It’s a combo of that and them not doing anything that screams town to me.

They’re just PoE.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Inferences required to find mafia by way of dream level arrangements, and my perceptions of how reasonable those inferences are:

1) sig had partial control of where people landed
Reasonable -- the architect in the Inception game could hold people back on levels during submergences, and the mafia team chose who among their own to leave behind. I think it's reasonable to at least infer sig had control over his own position. That's reinforced by landing him in the small level with Tony (a player who had defended him) and Tranq (possible lurker bait).

2) sig knew how many phases the inception period would last
Maybe -- whether it's clarified in the role or not, it could be inferred just given that this is a GOC and any single game references like that figure to be limited

3) sig knew that the player with the most votes across levels would be the only lynch
Unreasonable -- this is not how it worked in the Inception game. Indeed, in the real game Sloonei and I didn't tell anyone, mafia or civilian, how the multi-level lynches worked (kicks up toward the top dream, or deaths AT the top dream). They picked that up as they went. Long Con was on that team.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Because the others are pretty town. It’s a combo of that and them not doing anything that screams town to me.

They’re just PoE.

I don't believe you. "The others" are nine people. How have you eliminated them from Mac's team? "Pretty town" is meaningless. Expand.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Theory: tedxtr believes in his pursuit of the architect-driven Anti-Monitor hunt. It's real. And it's his predominant focus because it's the only real hunting he's capable of. The rest of the living mafia are his teammates.

[tedxtr]

They’re the least town.

[juliets]

[mention]JaggedJimmyJay[/mention] just to clarify, did the mafia have control over which civilians went to each level or just which of the mafia went to each level. I'm asking this because of the inference about Michelle preparing ahead of time for speedchuck. I thought I remembered you or Sloonei saying the mafia only controlled themselves.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

@JaggedJimmyJay just to clarify, did the mafia have control over which civilians went to each level or just which of the mafia went to each level. I'm asking this because of the inference about Michelle preparing ahead of time for speedchuck. I thought I remembered you or Sloonei saying the mafia only controlled themselves.

In our game (Sloonei and I), the mafia team chose who among their own to hold back while the rest submerged levels. They had no control over any of the civilian placements except the architect could choose one to hold in place during submergence.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

They’re the least town.

I feel like I am talking to a mouse.

*meep*

[tedxtr]

If someone that doesn’t misconstrue my actions according to their bias wants to talk, then @ me.

I wasn’t even chasing an anti-monitor lead. I’ve talked about G-man being a suspect and was trying to convey that i’d want him lynched, even if I said I was drained because I wasn’t being backed up. That’s not hunting anti-monitor, that’s accusing scummy people.

Not like I pushed an anti-monitor lead on anyone, I just like discussing mechanics and unsolving mysteries. I’ve done next to nothing and I wanted something to get me back in this game, which was solving this mech thing sig PoV. I like doing it.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Dom on sabie

All of these reviews will be limited exclusively to content preceding sabie's death.

Spoiler: show

Nanook, Jack and Dom were all on Nutella and me.

Mac cares nothing about facts.
Nanook literally had a civ role when thye voted nutella.

Mac and Sabie should be our priorities tomorrow.

While you're bad, you're not wrong that her vote on you sucked.

Sloon--

your post confirms what i'm thinking about sabie.

I'd like to hear more from ted.

There isn't much here, but it's all anti-sabie. At least by tone I think it matches most of Dom's aggression in this game, so I have no reason to presume distancing. There's not enough here for me to say they're not aligned. I don't feel it though.

Compatibility: Minor

[JaggedJimmyJay]

If someone that doesn’t misconstrue my actions according to their bias wants to talk, then @ me.

I wasn’t even chasing an anti-monitor lead. I’ve talked about G-man being a suspect and was trying to convey that i’d want him lynched, even if I said I was drained because I wasn’t being backed up. That’s not hunting anti-monitor, that’s accusing scummy people.

Not like I pushed an anti-monitor lead on anyone, I just like discussing mechanics and unsolving mysteries. I’ve done next to nothing and I wanted something to get me back in this game, which was solving this mech thing sig PoV. I like doing it.

I'm not talking about you pushing things on people. I am talking about the relative distribution of your hunting between the two teams right now.

One of them gets a devoted theory. The other gets a hand-wave 2-person POE pool.

[tedxtr]

They’re the least town.

I feel like I am talking to a mouse.

*meep*

I need good questions to work with. Bring the cheese to this damn mouse or I’m not buying.

This mouse shouldn’t waste his time negotiating with the human that wants him trapped up anyway.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

G-Man on sabie

Nada.

Compatibility: Technical

[JaggedJimmyJay]

They’re the least town.

I feel like I am talking to a mouse.

*meep*

I need good questions to work with. Bring the cheese to this damn mouse or I’m not buying.

This mouse shouldn’t waste his time negotiating with the human that wants him trapped up anyway.

When I say mouse I don't mean short on words. I mean your posts seem actually frightened.

[tedxtr]

I just said the mech thing was merely for me to uncover this mystery and helping people like Sloonei look into their theory and update it based on what I inferred. It’s a win win deal. You’re misconstruing it to be me hunting for the anti-monitor when I haven’t even accused anyone of being an anti-monitor.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Jackofhearts2005 on sabie

Spoiler: show

Hey svs! it's been awhile since we've been in a game together.
I see the votes on jack and I'm not sure. I thought i had a good idea of Jack's gameplay but I've been wrong a couple times. I feel like he tries really hard to blend in and look civ when he's bad and has been a more aggressive and jokey player when civ. He accused nutella in another game and ended up getting mislynched early on and was right about her. Nutella can be difficult to read at times but I have been able to read her correctly before. When I have more time later I'll have to read through their ISOs

Nanook was bad last game I played in and he was good at seeming like a civilian for awhile. I actually only started suspecting him towards the end. I haven't had a chance to look over his civ gameplay style to see if it is similar.
I saw JJJ put me in the bottom part of the reads when I haven't even done anything yet or is it because I haven't done anything yet? I didn't even know the game had started and it's a lot to catch up on. I'm not super talkative in the beginning of games sometimes but I'm trying to get better at it.

Sabie Sabie. I didn’t get mislynched. I can even physically be mislynched.

I gathered a few votes and then told Nutella she better shoot me and claim the mafia was trying to frame her, which is exactly what she did.

I’ve correctly read Nutella like 8 games running on D1. She’s a baddie.

Players who knows Sabie much better than I, please talk about Sabie.

She's way easier to read for me lategame.

Generally, she has a really good tone but tends to express honest suspicions that are maybe not 100% thought out and can come across as scummy or opportunistic even when she's town.

Since tone and mindset reads are not super effective against her, I'd lean on associative reads which again points to waiting until late game.

I know that's not even slightly helpful but hey, she's a null read for me atm.

In looking through speedchucks ISO there really isn't much there. When he discussed the jack nutella dynamic he just says it was interesting which is a way to kind of seem involved and respond to what's going on without really putting in his own perspective or response to it. He hasn't really seemed like he's trying to figure things out or anything.

I guess I'm not surprised jack is kind of changing what he said before about nutella. It seems as though he is trying to see how people react to his accusations and I know he can be tricky like that. I don't see it as a bad look for jack right now. I don't know if it necessarily changes my feeling on nutella but I'm curious to see what her response is to that.

Can you elaborate on your feelings on Nutella?

I saw you basically be like "Jack is good at reading Nutella" but I didn't see much in the way of what you independently think about her, given the posts I'm missing.

[insert Dizzy ISO/case here]

This convinces me to lower my opinion of Sabie in this game. Yea multiball.

sabie created a dichotomy between Jack and nutella

sabie said jack wouldn't push nutella because him doing that as scum and being wrong will make him a suspect. she votes nutella.

jack backs out. sabie says "well that doesn't change how I feel about nutella cuz I would've expected jack to do that anyway"

"I", as in, her own read. sabie didn't say anything about nutella before that.

Therefore, Sabie is scum and I am town.

Li kinda want to mansplain to Sabie how she’s misusing the term “mansplainig.”

I'm like 80% sure sabie flips scum, and it's not only because of the wall I've made but that's pretty fabulous. I've taken into account her surgery and this is why I'm currently not haphazardly pushing her to reply to my post, I'm sure she will, I'll give her the time she needs.

I do have one question, nutella, do you have a history of correctly reading sabie? Any reason why she would fear you if she were scum? stuff like that

I don't believe I have any specific history of reading sabie's alignment, no.

I tend to just defend players who are regularly mislynched until they do actual scummy things. This makes me look better at reading players like Sabie, Sig and Creature than I probably am for realzies.

sabie created a dichotomy between Jack and nutella

sabie said jack wouldn't push nutella because him doing that as scum and being wrong will make him a suspect. she votes nutella.

jack backs out. sabie says "well that doesn't change how I feel about nutella cuz I would've expected jack to do that anyway"

"I", as in, her own read. sabie didn't say anything about nutella before that.

So, idk if you meant to ask differently but there is history in the other direction which may inform this-- in the recent game where jack correctly pegged me as scum right away, after he died others backed off of me but sabie was the one who eventually caught me (she was the cop and I was godfather so appeared green to her but she figured it out). So that may explain why she put credence in jack's read of me and took it as her own/held on to it independently.

Not defending her as this can still be true if she's scum in multiball. Just pointing this out since it seems relevant to your thought process here.

The problem is that Australian Sabie saw the point I was making and believed in it and believed in me and found some independent reason to continue that push.

Champs 2019 Sabie basically disregarded my changed opinion and I didn’t see independent reason to continue the push.

Contrast to a degree Mac, who answered something like “what would you do if Jack started townreading Nutella” with something like “townread Nutella too I guess.”

sabie created a dichotomy between Jack and nutella

sabie said jack wouldn't push nutella because him doing that as scum and being wrong will make him a suspect. she votes nutella.

jack backs out. sabie says "well that doesn't change how I feel about nutella cuz I would've expected jack to do that anyway"

"I", as in, her own read. sabie didn't say anything about nutella before that.

Therefore, Sabie is scum and I am town.

Why does this make me scum? I was trying to say that Im not just following your votes around and I'm making my own reads based on her in other games. I thought she was playing how she has in games where she has been mafia. Also, the day was ended before I would have had a chance to consider voting someone else. Also also nutella ended up being not town also also also I just hate anyone telling me how to do something that I know how to do I just go about it a different way. Going back to work now.

Be quiet and get under the bus.

Would lynch based on Radishes flip: Jack

Lol you and what army?

To clarify, that was more of a hypothetical thought in answer to the question of “why would scum Mac do that.”

I currently do not think Mac and Radish were teamed and even though it doesn’t change my read on Mac in a vacuum, it does mean the likelihood of Mac being scum period was cut in half. I’m more likely to vote Sabie or GMan (who I agree looks really yucky with that Sloonei/Radish comment) than Mac at this point.

Yea multiball.

So I haven’t fully read/reread D2 but I did read Jay’s interactives and I generally agree with his conclusions.

I know I’m town and I don’t want to lynch Dom or Sprityo anyway. I think he maybe gives Juliets too much credit and Speed not enough. Neither should be lynched before Sabie or GMan anyhow.

Jack's take on sabie was a beige paint swatch until Dizzy provided The Goods. From there his read went south and stayed there. Jack's own posts leave me little inspiration to dissociate them; however with sabie's posts also visible here I am not inclined to ignore them. When she responded to his accusations, it doesn't look like teammate stuff to me.

Compatibility: Minor

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I just said the mech thing was merely for me to uncover this mystery and helping people like Sloonei look into their theory and update it based on what I inferred. It’s a win win deal. You’re misconstruing it to be me hunting for the anti-monitor when I haven’t even accused anyone of being an anti-monitor.

This is the worst sentence I have ever seen, and I would like to cordially invite you to the gallows at sundown.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Michelle on sabie

Spoiler: show

I will do my best. I like this post of yours, it's full of thoughts, looks real.
Just by reading it (keep in mind I didn't read all the thread but reading you civ I take all like from villagery mindset), I have these ideas:
- I don't think I'd read Turnip villager in this game, but maybe is from lack of meta?
- Ted and Sig villas for me too.
- Jack backtracking on Nut is nagl for me. Jack is a too stubborn fellow for that to be always a towny move for him.
- Colin bad agree, Drago bad I need to check.
- Sabie and Dizzy don't look so bad for me.

bbl, I am working today

That's it. I'm not sure why sabie is paired with Dizzy in this sole mention. To be clear, this was in response to an S~V~S reads list -- S~V~S had both (sabie/Dizzy) red among numerous others. This is nothing, and it leaves no inspiration.

Compatibility: Decent

[tedxtr]

Take me out to dinner first, let’s take it step by step. And while we’re at it, maybe explain how that’s the worst sentence?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Actually, nevermind. Given TH's green flip and the entire dynamic of his shot at Michelle that went to sabie instead, I don't think Michelle fits mechanically. Clear her of the Anti-Monitors unless you (the general you) see some flaw in that logic.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Take me out to dinner first, let’s take it step by step. And while we’re at it, maybe explain how that’s the worst sentence?

It's a huge backpedal. Look at me with a straight face and tell me that's not about hunting for the Anti-Monitor. "I haven't accused anyone!" is an ugly look. Don't thank me for coming to your Ted Talk.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

speedchuck on sabie

Nada.

Compatibility: Technical

[TonyStarkPrime]

Take me out to dinner first, let’s take it step by step. And while we’re at it, maybe explain how that’s the worst sentence?

It's a huge backpedal. Look at me with a straight face and tell me that's not about hunting for the Anti-Monitor. "I haven't accused anyone!" is an ugly look. Don't thank me for coming to your Ted Talk.

show me

[tedxtr]

It’s not, I’m shifting the idea that you’re creating about me doing it to hunt the Anti Monitor to the actual idea of me trying to regain the energy and getting re-invested into the game by solving some “mathematical equation” or I guess, a puzzle. And I’ve already specified it, but you’re not even reading my posts because you just want my head on a pogo stick.

Which is also why I’m not answering any of your inquiries anymore. Sorry, date’s over.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

It’s not, I’m shifting the idea that you’re creating about me doing it to hunt the Anti Monitor to the actual idea of me trying to regain the energy and getting re-invested into the game by solving some “mathematical equation” or I guess, a puzzle. And I’ve already specified it, but you’re not even reading my posts because you just want my head on a pogo stick.

Which is also why I’m not answering any of your inquiries anymore. Sorry, date’s over.

Yeah I think all of that is bullshit.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Take me out to dinner first, let’s take it step by step. And while we’re at it, maybe explain how that’s the worst sentence?

It's a huge backpedal. Look at me with a straight face and tell me that's not about hunting for the Anti-Monitor. "I haven't accused anyone!" is an ugly look. Don't thank me for coming to your Ted Talk.

show me

Show you what exactly?

[TonyStarkPrime]

Take me out to dinner first, let’s take it step by step. And while we’re at it, maybe explain how that’s the worst sentence?

It's a huge backpedal. Look at me with a straight face and tell me that's not about hunting for the Anti-Monitor. "I haven't accused anyone!" is an ugly look. Don't thank me for coming to your Ted Talk.

show me

Show you what exactly?

I hear the case, but I don’t see the evidence — Ted exclusively hunting the anti-monitor and then denying it.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

tedxtr on sabie

Spoiler: show

This game has been so hard for me to follow It takes me at least a half hour to catch up on reading everything after I leave and come back. I don't know why me voting for nutella who did not flip town and mac who is not confirmed town must mean I'm bad. I voted for mac because I thought his gameplay matched his other mafia gameplay before. We still don't know that mac isn't bad. I can see why people think I'm not playing well this game and that's a fair assessment because I'm having a hard time keeping up and making reads there is so much going on. So yeah I am trying my best and I always think it's better to be honest and to at least try to put my vote somewhere that I think makes sense than to make up fake reads or not vote at all. People always think I'm scummy because my posts are weird and my gameplay style doesn't make sense to them.

Spoiler: show

Alright, I didn't know what to start with but I guess I'll take this at a time when I'm actually able to analyse stuff on PC. Let's enter sabie's mind a little bit.

Sabie, admittedly, has avoided the Radishes wagon and decided to vote for him instead. The main reasoning was that his gameplay was reminiscing of a mafia meta. That's fine.

What isn't fine is how Sabie goes around the bolded and red line. It's something about the second sentence that strikes me as an odd thing to see from an uninformed PoV. Allegedly, sabie has already faltering reasons for scum reading Mac, which is meta. I honestly don't agree with mac aligning himself with his past mafia self so I'd really appreciate if sabie can describe to me how mac's different.

I'll cut to the chase, from a town PoV, mac's recent play was fairly good and I'd reckon a meta read would falter easily, but sabie's stiff on that read. The second line comes from a scum PoV that basically says "Oh well I'm being pushed for scum reading mac but we don't even know he doesn't flip scum here" which subtly hints towards the idea of sabie believing her read but I interpret that as having other underlying reasons for scum reading mac that sabie can't out, because it's the type of feels that scum teams have on the opposing team's scums, if that makes sense (also, the "we don't even know if he's flipping baddie speaks from a mindset of "well we don't know what he'll flip" - lol, obvious, but the point i was making was that this is said implies that sabie is unsure of the read herself, which, if she is, why does she seem to not be and if she's not, then why is she saying "we don't know"?). I interpret it that way because no way is sabie that confident in Mac flipping wolf off meta, especially when he's obviously not scum based on meta , so she is secretive of other aspects that make her truthfully believe mac's scum with conviction.

Firstly, why'd you even base it off accuracy? That's what scum look for, lynching other scums and getting the credit. Mac flipping wolf by no means absolves you of anything, but it is a scum thought more than it is a town thought, because you think it'd make you look good for lynching scum when you're just playing according to your wincon.

And the crucial point I wanted to emphasize on is that sabie is virtually saying "let him flip wolf and that will confirm me" instead of explaining WHY she believes he's scum and burying him to death. That signals that she acknowledges her push is wrongly based but the ultimate conclusion that she draws out of it is that "the means which you get through to scum read someone don't matter if they ultimately flip scum" which I perceive to be a wolf thought rather than a civvie one, hope that made some sense.

Summary, sabie's bolded line expresses a thought of "follow me on mac, flip him and prove him wrong" even though her reasoning for scum reading him shouldn't reflect that type of thought, which is a meta read that, from my PoV, doesn't fit at all. The "we don't even know if mac is bad" is speaking more from a wolf mindset of "the means which you get to a scum read on someone doesn't matter as long as they flip wolf" which is more unlikely to come from a town that meta read someone at the last minute as mafia, it's also a pre-emptive defence. I don't think Sabie actually believes in mac flipping wolf and she seems to imply it heavily in this post, I can't see sabie scum reading mac heavily off a meta read, unless there were underlying reasons that she wouldn't be able to pinpoit because they heavily rely on what scum factions feel for slots, which town have no knowledge of.

Let's take a look :

I've also not been a fan of TH this game I just read the ISO. My first issue with them at the beginning of the game was making reads with no real explanation. Then their treatment of colin was weird to me like they were so sure its gotta be colin and anyone who thought maybe give colin a chance must be bad too. Now all of a sudden since no one was following that he's onto something else. Shrug idk I don't feel great about him so far.

I think right now though I feel worse about mac. I'm not seeing him as civ and in looking back at other games I could see his responses as a scum mac. He is trying to get people off himself without trying to make cases elsewhere. His blindly following jack on nutella was meh. I know he has a way of trying to sneakily get suspicion in different directions without directly saying it.
[VOTE: mac] aubergine

sabie12 could you develop on your reasons for meta reading him wolf and maybe quote some posts from other games that make you feel like they match his current gameplay?

I think G-Man / JJJ / TH / Sabie lynches at least 2 of radishes scum buds, in that order

sabie created a dichotomy between Jack and nutella

sabie said jack wouldn't push nutella because him doing that as scum and being wrong will make him a suspect. she votes nutella.

jack backs out. sabie says "well that doesn't change how I feel about nutella cuz I would've expected jack to do that anyway"

"I", as in, her own read. sabie didn't say anything about nutella before that.

I'm like 80% sure sabie flips scum, and it's not only because of the wall I've made but that's pretty fabulous. I've taken into account her surgery and this is why I'm currently not haphazardly pushing her to reply to my post, I'm sure she will, I'll give her the time she needs.

I do have one question, nutella, do you have a history of correctly reading sabie? Any reason why she would fear you if she were scum? stuff like that

Ohhhhh ted I haven't gotten to your tldr post yet I'm at work but I'm checking in here and there. Are we going to go through this whole thing a third time? Where you accuse me of being scummy because you don't understand the way I play and then mansplain how I should be playing and then you find out you were wrong about me and then I help win the game. It's always so fun

always a pleasure. should i start avoiding reading you because of our previous encounters?

we would've won anyway. well, the people that were alive would've.

this feels a little unfair, given you haven't even, well, read the main thing I had on you. but that's okay.

sabie, i declare you my arch nemesis on syndicate. i have an arch nemesis on MU which I always scum read and it's not anything that you can do about it, unfortunately, so maybe we could work on switching the frame to a more positive one. you can like laugh at me and then reminisce at these games when we will hopefully be playing in the future and go



and having a grin on your face

i have much respect for my arch nemesis

A broken clock strikes correctly twice during a day sabie :P

I'll eventually get a soul read on you sabie. Don't worry. I just need like, 3 more games or so.

Yeah I'm trying to comprehend why her catching you in a previous game would be used as a reasoning to scum read you in here. Like, without actually having commented anything on you from this game.

Ok, I won't do a loaded question. I'll actually think critically.

IF there's a reason for why sabie was scum reading you and didn't mention it in the thread, I'd like to hear that.

I mean Sabie is independently scummy so this works even better for me

we'll see if I mansplained myself into a wolf lynch

ted was vocally anti-sabie, and the character of that stance strikes me as worth dissociating. ted gave sabie crap on two fronts -- her suspicion of Mac and her suitability as a teammate of Radish. I get the impression this was serious hunting from him, and accordingly not distancing etc.

Compatibility: Low

[TonyStarkPrime]

Also you never finished this activity with Mac. You’re now going back and doing it with Sabie to little result. Why?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I hear the case, but I don’t see the evidence — Ted exclusively hunting the anti-monitor and then denying it.

Here's his post history. If you start at Day 5 and work down, you'll note emerging trends for the focus of ted's posts:

~ Defending himself as suspicion mounts
~ Telling us he's not engaged
~ Initiating and building on a theory about how sig may have arranged the dream levels and what it may mean for his team

When I asked about Mac's team, I got blank POE for two names, on the basis that others look "more town". I get no impression that ted is looking for that group.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Also you never finished this activity with Mac. You’re now going back and doing it with Sabie to little result. Why?

If I recall correctly, the only person I didn't get to originally with Mac was Turnip Head. And I got there later.

I have no idea what the results will be when I assess sabie interactions or any other interactions. The point is to see what I find. I'm not surprised there isn't a ton of conclusive stuff available for sabie given that she was blended into the thread, didn't say a bunch, and died via night kill. Nonetheless, it's advisable to try. If I can make time I mean to look at sig as well.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Civilians who do not make the attempt to find connections are civilians who don't want to win.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I just said the mech thing was merely for me to uncover this mystery and helping people like Sloonei look into their theory and update it based on what I inferred. It’s a win win deal. You’re misconstruing it to be me hunting for the anti-monitor when I haven’t even accused anyone of being an anti-monitor.

You asked about "denying it" too Tony. There you go.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

TonyStarkPrime on sabie

Spoiler: show

Players who knows Sabie much better than I, please talk about Sabie.

I think I can’t articulately read Sabie when she’s town but I develop a feeling pretty early on when she’s Scum. No such feeling has yet developed. It’s a good sign.

Dizzy is town, Colin is ehh.

I knew you would come to love me. Are you town though? Cause I want like a read list or something from you. Or at least your top suspects or something. Basically just want to know more where you're at and not so in the background.

Town:

Dizzy
Epi?
G-Man
Jack?
SVS
sig
Ted
Me

Ehh:
Colin
Dom
Drago
Mac
Radish
Michelle
A book
Sloonei
Sprit
Tranq

Baddish:
Jay
Juliets
Sabie
Speed
Turnip

Baddish:
Juliets
Sabie
Turnip

I'm very interested in these reads. Rip my life.

I’ve got nothing specific. I feel very sure on Juliets but in the presence of lots of town reads I’ll succumb to the majority. Sabie is playing similarly to how she did in Fallout as far as I can tell, it’s a little floaty. Not a lot of fighting to grasp onto, big paragraphs and inherently defensive.
Turnip was a shrug read. Went to put it in Ehh, changed my mind.

I think Sabie is on the Radish team. The way she was addressing Radish was sparse and awkward. She didn't respond to Radish when Radish picked her vote on Nut out as the worst vote. But every time I say something anti-Sabie she's there to comment on it.

Turnip also looks bad from this. The way he ended up on Nut D1 even though he supposedly suspected Radish. And also D2 built counter wagons to him. Not a great look. Though I've been reading Turnip more town otherwise. Idk.

Right

This game has been so hard for me to follow It takes me at least a half hour to catch up on reading everything after I leave and come back. I don't know why me voting for nutella who did not flip town and mac who is not confirmed town must mean I'm bad. I voted for mac because I thought his gameplay matched his other mafia gameplay before. We still don't know that mac isn't bad. I can see why people think I'm not playing well this game and that's a fair assessment because I'm having a hard time keeping up and making reads there is so much going on. So yeah I am trying my best and I always think it's better to be honest and to at least try to put my vote somewhere that I think makes sense than to make up fake reads or not vote at all. People always think I'm scummy because my posts are weird and my gameplay style doesn't make sense to them.

It’s more that your vote pattern fits a radish teammate

You also voted mac over radishes so what does that say about you? I have said before I'm not familiar with radishes and had nothing to compare to. I know they are newer here and don't know a lot of people and I didnt know if they came off as scummy because of that. When I played in all my circuits this happened to therealet and everyone gave them a super hard time and they ended up being civ. I didn't have any real read on radishes so I didnt vote there. When I made my post about mac and TH the reason I included both of them is because they were the wagons with the most votes so I put my thoughts on both. Then I saw slooneis post town reading TH which led me more in the direction of voting mac over TH at the time. Then I wasn't around because I was busy IRL. That's about it. I always think it's so funny when people look way too far into what I'm doing when there isn't anything behind it.

Sabie, can you give me two or three reads? In any direction.

Tony's initial take on sabie was positive, and then in his next mention she was at the bottom of a reads list. It'd be ideal to know how that developed, Tony, over those 1.5-2 real time days. From there Tony's suspicion held albeit with docility. By words alone, I think Tony is compatible. The best argument in Tony's favor is that he was stuck with sig in the smallest dream level. That's not a small point.

Compatibility: Minor

[TonyStarkPrime]

Also you never finished this activity with Mac. You’re now going back and doing it with Sabie to little result. Why?

If I recall correctly, the only person I didn't get to originally with Mac was Turnip Head. And I got there later.

I have no idea what the results will be when I assess sabie interactions or any other interactions. The point is to see what I find. I'm not surprised there isn't a ton of conclusive stuff available for sabie given that she was blended into the thread, didn't say a bunch, and died via night kill. Nonetheless, it's advisable to try. If I can make time I mean to look at sig as well.

you didn’t check me