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- Fri May 04, 2018 9:31 am
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Assassination Classroom [ENDGAME]
- Replies: 3660
- Views: 154226
Re: Assassination Classroom [NIGHT 1]
One answer is right above it.
- Fri May 04, 2018 9:32 am
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Assassination Classroom [ENDGAME]
- Replies: 3660
- Views: 154226
Re: Assassination Classroom [NIGHT 1]
And you are misinterpreting what I said. I didn't say anyone voted at random. I am saying CFDs bring the hunting process to a success rate closer to randomness than otherwise.
- Fri May 04, 2018 10:32 am
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Assassination Classroom [ENDGAME]
- Replies: 3660
- Views: 154226
Re: Assassination Classroom [DAY 1]
Quin wrote: ↑Fri May 04, 2018 4:15 am
I hate being late, hate hate hate it! Such brilliant students as yourselves don't deserve that!
Not that the E class noticed. They were too busy poking each other with sticks to even notice lapluie had impaled herself with one! Oops!
lapluie has been lynched.
Spoiler: show
Night 1 has begun. To make up for the late host post (and also because I'm busy tomorrow as well) Night 1 will be extended to 9:30 AEST on Sunday (about 39 hours).
Please take your time Quin. I have MBA this weekend. And a job interview on monday. And maybe another interview on tuesday. The more the game delays, the better.
- Fri May 04, 2018 12:53 pm
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Assassination Classroom [ENDGAME]
- Replies: 3660
- Views: 154226
Re: Assassination Classroom [NIGHT 1]
Imo going by the role description and the character himself the indie is anything but mafia.Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri May 04, 2018 12:41 pmWhat is a hot potato? I'm hungry.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri May 04, 2018 6:59 am I don't really think this thing was a hot potato. Whatever it was, a civilian was lynched.
On Day 1, a civilian usually gets lynched. Oh well, it sucks, but we move forward. If the game maintains its pace, we'll be fine. The civilians are winning right now.
Also, town is winning, obivously, cause town is awesome. BUT, I want to stress that if all town does not start getting involved for real we're not going anywhere. There are five mafia members, and we do need coordination and a sense of urgency. Just a mantra I have.
He may actually have a wincon of his own but he seems geared to help town.
- Fri May 04, 2018 12:59 pm
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Assassination Classroom [ENDGAME]
- Replies: 3660
- Views: 154226
Re: Assassination Classroom [NIGHT 1]
I'm more on the weak reads territory. I have weak bad reads on nova, Avito, wolbre and Dom. Weak civ reads on you, Jay, and Scotty. Neutral on everyone else I think.Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri May 04, 2018 12:44 pmWell, yeah, meh. Personally I feel that without a super clear direction, CFD at the end of day 1 is not the worst way to go because 1) you can get lucky and 2) everyone participating gives information and reacts in a fast paced thread. (3 - it's kind of fun).Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Fri May 04, 2018 8:33 am The procedure is not to close yours eyes and vote randomly like you guys did there.
Like the day has 24 hours for a reason. You use them. The moment Mac threw the word CFD the rest of you dropped every discussion you had done so far and started randomly changing your vote like madmen.
I would prefer building good cases going forward. Do you have any? I'm more in PoE land right now. More about that later.
- Fri May 04, 2018 1:28 pm
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Assassination Classroom [ENDGAME]
- Replies: 3660
- Views: 154226
Re: Assassination Classroom [NIGHT 1]
Fake news.Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Fri May 04, 2018 1:22 pmMaybe he learns to love over the course of the series or something but as of Epi 1, the yellow guy wants to destroy the whole planet and has already destroyed most of the moon. I’d bet on him as bad.wolbre04 wrote: ↑Fri May 04, 2018 12:50 pmAnd the Golden character seems to be a town aligned 3p unless he counts as nontown for numbers?wolbre04 wrote: ↑Fri May 04, 2018 12:49 pmThe post from Quin says that there are 4 mafia, did I miss something?Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri May 04, 2018 12:41 pmWhat is a hot potato? I'm hungry.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri May 04, 2018 6:59 am I don't really think this thing was a hot potato. Whatever it was, a civilian was lynched.
On Day 1, a civilian usually gets lynched. Oh well, it sucks, but we move forward. If the game maintains its pace, we'll be fine. The civilians are winning right now.
Also, town is winning, obivously, cause town is awesome. BUT, I want to stress that if all town does not start getting involved for real we're not going anywhere. There are five mafia members, and we do need coordination and a sense of urgency. Just a mantra I have.
- Fri May 04, 2018 1:30 pm
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Assassination Classroom [ENDGAME]
- Replies: 3660
- Views: 154226
- Fri May 04, 2018 1:31 pm
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Assassination Classroom [ENDGAME]
- Replies: 3660
- Views: 154226
Re: Assassination Classroom [NIGHT 1]
A friend of mine once told me excessive criticism of town can be viewed as a baddie sign. As if they are unconsciously rooting against town.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri May 04, 2018 1:22 pm Well damn. That's good stuff, Dizzy.
<Vote lapluie> with bewildered question mark meme guy followed by You lynched lapluie? This had better meet my standards. is a pretty terrible look.
This fits it.
- Fri May 04, 2018 1:33 pm
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Assassination Classroom [ENDGAME]
- Replies: 3660
- Views: 154226
Re: Assassination Classroom [DAY 1]
I hate this post.novaselinenever wrote: ↑Thu May 03, 2018 6:59 pmYeah, I didn't like how she backed off of her own vote. And the reason to begin with was weak sauce. Felt forced and she just jumped on an opportunity to have a vote on the table early on.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu May 03, 2018 6:57 pmZero civilian credit to be found and her dismissal of her own vote is weak.
Avito's lynch isn't happening and I don't like my vote to be meaningless, so I'll jump there. You coming ?
How was Avito lynch not happening? He had like 3 votes on him at some point.
- Fri May 04, 2018 1:38 pm
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Assassination Classroom [ENDGAME]
- Replies: 3660
- Views: 154226
Re: Assassination Classroom [NIGHT 1]
Hmm who did that? Avito?Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri May 04, 2018 1:36 pmGoing along those lines, a mentality of wanting to stop town having what is preceived as unfair advantages also is a rather common mindset slip. Let's say something like "we can't role claim right, it's totally banned right, or else that would be super unfair!" Just mentioning it for the shade.
- Sun May 06, 2018 10:40 am
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Assassination Classroom [ENDGAME]
- Replies: 3660
- Views: 154226
Re: Assassination Classroom [NIGHT 1]
No OP this week, sadly.Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sat May 05, 2018 12:44 pm INH and DDL still in this game? They’ve been really quiet.
*clears throat*
ANYONE WANNA TALK ABOUT TWIN PEAKS AND ONE PIECE?
- Sun May 06, 2018 10:41 am
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Assassination Classroom [ENDGAME]
- Replies: 3660
- Views: 154226
Re: Assassination Classroom [DAY 2]
I am here. Slowly catching up but I have a food poisoning of sorts so I feel like horse shit. Will try to do something useful before the day ends if I can.
- Sun May 06, 2018 11:09 am
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Assassination Classroom [ENDGAME]
- Replies: 3660
- Views: 154226
Re: Assassination Classroom [DAY 2]
I used "sort of" because I dont know if this is the right term in english. All I know is that I ate a shrimp paella for dinner yesterday and sonething in it was spoiled, and now I feel like there is an angry mob screaming and punching in my stomach.
- Sun May 06, 2018 1:50 pm
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Assassination Classroom [ENDGAME]
- Replies: 3660
- Views: 154226
Re: Assassination Classroom [DAY 2]
Pennywise being inactive is not his meta, but is also NAI. We will have to lynch him eventually if he doesn't show up. Doesn't have to be now, but has to be before the endgame.
I have a hard time reading Avito cuz I dont know him that much game-wise. He is pretty laid back right now but from what I know of him that is also NAI.
I suspect nova tho. Epi made a good point and I still think his lapluie vote was forced. He could have fought for it. He just came, made what looked like a joke vote, and hours later came back and joined the sexy civ wagon available.
I have a hard time reading Avito cuz I dont know him that much game-wise. He is pretty laid back right now but from what I know of him that is also NAI.
I suspect nova tho. Epi made a good point and I still think his lapluie vote was forced. He could have fought for it. He just came, made what looked like a joke vote, and hours later came back and joined the sexy civ wagon available.
- Sun May 06, 2018 1:51 pm
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Assassination Classroom [ENDGAME]
- Replies: 3660
- Views: 154226
Re: Assassination Classroom [DAY 2]
[VOTE:
novaselinenever] aubergine
- Sun May 06, 2018 1:56 pm
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Assassination Classroom [ENDGAME]
- Replies: 3660
- Views: 154226
Re: Assassination Classroom [DAY 2]
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun May 06, 2018 1:06 pmObjectively the worst game mechanic.
I remember switching votes like mad to try to tell people I was silenced in a previous game and nobody freaking noticed.
What I did in one game where I was silenced was explode the forum. Spammed the mafia forum convo thread. Spammed politics. Spammed anime forums.
It worked.
The mafia was tilted because I kind of exploited the rules. Their role could force me to post things but disnt force me to do it fast, so I waited until the end of the day while I kept exploding the forum.
- Sun May 06, 2018 2:19 pm
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Assassination Classroom [ENDGAME]
- Replies: 3660
- Views: 154226
Re: Assassination Classroom [DAY 2]
Hmm why not reading the first three pages?Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun May 06, 2018 1:31 pmPW and Avito seem to be the most suspected players but I’m not sure why on PW.
I go back and forth on JJJ.
I’m pretty open to being convinced at this point.
The further the game advances, the smaller the percentage of the game (page 4 to when I arrived) I haven’t read and the more my lack of reads bothers me.
- Mon May 07, 2018 7:48 am
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Assassination Classroom [ENDGAME]
- Replies: 3660
- Views: 154226
Re: Assassination Classroom [DAY 2]
You made a solid read on Avito. Then you changed away from it in a sketchy way. That's the problem.novaselinenever wrote: ↑Sun May 06, 2018 5:29 pmHow was my vote on Lapluie forced ? I've seen you pushing me since D1 little by little. First it was discrediting my meta read on Avito, you then agreed with, maybe it was to eventually prepare yourself to jump on his wagon. Now it's something else. Seems like some premeditated consistent throwing to eventually hammer me. I'm watching you boy.Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sun May 06, 2018 1:50 pm Pennywise being inactive is not his meta, but is also NAI. We will have to lynch him eventually if he doesn't show up. Doesn't have to be now, but has to be before the endgame.
I have a hard time reading Avito cuz I dont know him that much game-wise. He is pretty laid back right now but from what I know of him that is also NAI.
I suspect nova tho. Epi made a good point and I still think his lapluie vote was forced. He could have fought for it. He just came, made what looked like a joke vote, and hours later came back and joined the sexy civ wagon available.
- Mon May 07, 2018 8:09 am
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Assassination Classroom [ENDGAME]
- Replies: 3660
- Views: 154226
Re: Assassination Classroom [NIGHT 2]
Not sure. I lynched JJJ for similar reasons in FE and he turned up to be civ. Though in FE, he was posting a lot more. I think his playstyle here is more similar to FE: he is pursuing the obvious wagons (he won't let me bash him for this because in FE most of those wagons were civ lol), he is exploding the thread and he is generally blunt and self-confident and hard to argue with.
So all this points to him being a civ. Yet, I believe his Mountain meta may have been affected by RL more than it looks like, which would mean a real baddie Jay would be a lot more similar to a civ one, and better at imitating his meta.
- Mon May 07, 2018 11:22 am
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Assassination Classroom [ENDGAME]
- Replies: 3660
- Views: 154226
Re: Assassination Classroom [NIGHT 2]
Well I admit this is less sketchy now that we know Avito was a civ too.
I think I'll do that color poll thing to see if we can learn anything from those polls.
I think I'll do that color poll thing to see if we can learn anything from those polls.
- Mon May 07, 2018 12:26 pm
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Assassination Classroom [ENDGAME]
- Replies: 3660
- Views: 154226
Re: Assassination Classroom [NIGHT 2]
I list all the votes (including abandoned votes) in the order they were made. Each color is one person who was voted for.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon May 07, 2018 12:14 pm I have seen these “technicolor vote” things many times and still have no idea what they mean. An clear explanation would be appreciated.
So this way we can see who started each wagon, who jumped on it, and any counter-wagons that may have been made.
- Mon May 07, 2018 6:54 pm
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Assassination Classroom [ENDGAME]
- Replies: 3660
- Views: 154226
Re: Assassination Classroom [NIGHT 2]
Ok let's do this
Gman's Technicolor Vote Analysis
DAY 1
For those who don't know, here is how it works.
The first list, inside spoilers, is every vote made during the day that is being analysed:
Now, we have the same list, but with only with the name of the voters. The people who are voted for are coded by color, whose key is shown below.
nova
Marmot
Jay
Dizzy
Scotty
Epi
INH
Mac
Sprityo
DDL
LC
Dizzy
Jay
Dizzy
Dizzy
Jay
Marmot
Scotty
Marmot
Sprityo
Dizzy
Jay
Scotty
Dizzy
Dizzy
Jay
Jay
Scotty
Juliets
Jack
Epi
LC
Mac
Jay
Dizzy
Jack
nova
Dizzy
Juliets
Jay
Mac
Dizzy
Scotty
Dizzy
Jack
Jay
INH
Mac
Dizzy
Jack
Kyle
lapluie - green
LC - red
wolbre - light blue
Avito - yellow
Sprityo - purple
Jack - orange
Juliets - dark blue
other - no color
Now we analyse the people who got the most votes, color by color.
First, the lapluie wagon. It has some early adopters, Sprityo (who unvoted) and Epi. But it really caught steam when nova, juliets, Jay and Mac pushed it. INH hopped on it it near the end. The wagon seemed to be an alternative to the LC CFD that was formed at the point. In fact, the two wagons were tied. If LC flips bad, there is a high chance of baddies in this.
LC wagon next. Jay was a quick, and short, early adopter. It really started when Mac brought it up, followed by Jay, Dizzy and Jack. The same Jay, Dizzy and Jack would fumble around other wagons before coming back to LC around the end of the day.
Wolbre is another big story here. The votes came with a quick movement of Jay, Scotty, Juliets and Jack around the middle of the day, with Dizzy somewhat later, and Jack coming in again before leaving for LC again.
There are other wagons which I bothered to color, but I won't analyse them for now. The problem here is that we have no bad flips yet, so anything we obtain here is highly speculative (though I recommend we go back here once said scum flip happens). But we can try to spot some trends now. First is, that in spite of Day 1 chaos, all of the big wagons came from very quick burst. In one second a person had no votes, next second they were leading the poll. This is, at the same time, really easy for scum to hop in, and really hard for scum to stop (hence the main appeal of CFDs). LC, or lapluie, could have been a counter-wagon to LC, or wolbre. On the other hand, it could be that all three wagons were on civs, and scum was just coasting and blending.
The same actors can be seen in all wagons: Jay, Dizzy, Mac, Jack, juliets. I like to believe there was scum among those, blending, while another 2 or 3 scum were staying away from the main wagons. Would be a good way for scum to spread I think.
Gman's Technicolor Vote Analysis
DAY 1
For those who don't know, here is how it works.
The first list, inside spoilers, is every vote made during the day that is being analysed:
Spoiler: show
Now, we have the same list, but with only with the name of the voters. The people who are voted for are coded by color, whose key is shown below.
nova
Marmot
Jay
Dizzy
Scotty
Epi
INH
Mac
Sprityo
DDL
LC
Dizzy
Jay
Dizzy
Dizzy
Jay
Marmot
Scotty
Marmot
Sprityo
Dizzy
Jay
Scotty
Dizzy
Dizzy
Jay
Jay
Scotty
Juliets
Jack
Epi
LC
Mac
Jay
Dizzy
Jack
nova
Dizzy
Juliets
Jay
Mac
Dizzy
Scotty
Dizzy
Jack
Jay
INH
Mac
Dizzy
Jack
Kyle
lapluie - green
LC - red
wolbre - light blue
Avito - yellow
Sprityo - purple
Jack - orange
Juliets - dark blue
other - no color
Now we analyse the people who got the most votes, color by color.
First, the lapluie wagon. It has some early adopters, Sprityo (who unvoted) and Epi. But it really caught steam when nova, juliets, Jay and Mac pushed it. INH hopped on it it near the end. The wagon seemed to be an alternative to the LC CFD that was formed at the point. In fact, the two wagons were tied. If LC flips bad, there is a high chance of baddies in this.
LC wagon next. Jay was a quick, and short, early adopter. It really started when Mac brought it up, followed by Jay, Dizzy and Jack. The same Jay, Dizzy and Jack would fumble around other wagons before coming back to LC around the end of the day.
Wolbre is another big story here. The votes came with a quick movement of Jay, Scotty, Juliets and Jack around the middle of the day, with Dizzy somewhat later, and Jack coming in again before leaving for LC again.
There are other wagons which I bothered to color, but I won't analyse them for now. The problem here is that we have no bad flips yet, so anything we obtain here is highly speculative (though I recommend we go back here once said scum flip happens). But we can try to spot some trends now. First is, that in spite of Day 1 chaos, all of the big wagons came from very quick burst. In one second a person had no votes, next second they were leading the poll. This is, at the same time, really easy for scum to hop in, and really hard for scum to stop (hence the main appeal of CFDs). LC, or lapluie, could have been a counter-wagon to LC, or wolbre. On the other hand, it could be that all three wagons were on civs, and scum was just coasting and blending.
The same actors can be seen in all wagons: Jay, Dizzy, Mac, Jack, juliets. I like to believe there was scum among those, blending, while another 2 or 3 scum were staying away from the main wagons. Would be a good way for scum to spread I think.
- Mon May 07, 2018 7:10 pm
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Assassination Classroom [ENDGAME]
- Replies: 3660
- Views: 154226
Re: Assassination Classroom [NIGHT 2]
There is an error in the list. I somwhow registered Jay's last vote on LC as if it was on Quin. Here's the correct one (hopefully):
DAY 1
nova
Marmot
Jay
Dizzy
Scotty
Epi
INH
Mac
Sprityo
DDL
LC
Dizzy
Jay
Dizzy
Dizzy
Jay
Marmot
Scotty
Marmot
Sprityo
Dizzy
Jay
Scotty
Dizzy
Dizzy
Jay
Jay
Scotty
Juliets
Jack
Epi
LC
Mac
Jay
Dizzy
Jack
nova
Dizzy
Juliets
Jay
Mac
Dizzy
Scotty
Dizzy
Jack
Jay
INH
Mac
Dizzy
Jack
Kyle
lapluie - green
LC - red
wolbre - light blue
Avito - yellow
Sprityo - purple
Jack - orange
Juliets - dark blue
other - no color
DAY 1
Spoiler: show
Marmot
Jay
Dizzy
Scotty
Epi
INH
Mac
Sprityo
DDL
LC
Dizzy
Jay
Dizzy
Dizzy
Jay
Marmot
Scotty
Marmot
Sprityo
Dizzy
Jay
Scotty
Dizzy
Dizzy
Jay
Jay
Scotty
Juliets
Jack
Epi
LC
Mac
Jay
Dizzy
Jack
nova
Dizzy
Juliets
Jay
Mac
Dizzy
Scotty
Dizzy
Jack
Jay
INH
Mac
Dizzy
Jack
Kyle
lapluie - green
LC - red
wolbre - light blue
Avito - yellow
Sprityo - purple
Jack - orange
Juliets - dark blue
other - no color
- Mon May 07, 2018 7:23 pm
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Assassination Classroom [ENDGAME]
- Replies: 3660
- Views: 154226
Re: Assassination Classroom [NIGHT 2]
Day 2
Jay
Sprityo
Avito
Scotty
juliets
Epi
Scotty
DDL
wolbre
Jay
LC
Jay
nova
Mac
Marmot
Epi
Jack
Kyle
Avito
Scotty (unknown time)
Note: Scotty's votes are weird because he was silenced. I don't know who his first vote was for (only saw people commenting on it) and I don't know when he changed it to Avito.
Well there are two clear wagons here. nova and Avito. All of the day's focus is on them. Avito was a civ. nova may or may not have been bad. If nova is bad, this is pure gold, otherwise, meh. This was a low activity day, after all.
Spoiler: show
Jay
Sprityo
Avito
Scotty
juliets
Epi
Scotty
DDL
wolbre
Jay
LC
Jay
nova
Mac
Marmot
Epi
Jack
Kyle
Avito
Scotty (unknown time)
Note: Scotty's votes are weird because he was silenced. I don't know who his first vote was for (only saw people commenting on it) and I don't know when he changed it to Avito.
Well there are two clear wagons here. nova and Avito. All of the day's focus is on them. Avito was a civ. nova may or may not have been bad. If nova is bad, this is pure gold, otherwise, meh. This was a low activity day, after all.
- Mon May 07, 2018 7:25 pm
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Assassination Classroom [ENDGAME]
- Replies: 3660
- Views: 154226
Re: Assassination Classroom [NIGHT 2]
I want to push one of those people who kept flip-flopping wagons on Day 1. Jay, Juliets, Mac and Jack. I already gave my reasons why I think Jay is a civ (which should be taken with ten grains of salt) but the others are a big question mark in my imaginary rainbow.
- Tue May 08, 2018 8:15 am
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Assassination Classroom [ENDGAME]
- Replies: 3660
- Views: 154226
Re: Assassination Classroom [NIGHT 2]
Fair enough, it's just that you appear in two of the main wagons.juliets wrote: ↑Mon May 07, 2018 9:36 pmWhat do you mean "kept flip flopping wagons"? I made one change, that was it.Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Mon May 07, 2018 7:25 pm I want to push one of those people who kept flip-flopping wagons on Day 1. Jay, Juliets, Mac and Jack. I already gave my reasons why I think Jay is a civ (which should be taken with ten grains of salt) but the others are a big question mark in my imaginary rainbow.
- Tue May 08, 2018 8:17 am
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Assassination Classroom [ENDGAME]
- Replies: 3660
- Views: 154226
Re: Assassination Classroom [NIGHT 2]
It is total speculation. I didn't do this because I wanted to make a point. I did it to produce data, then analyse whether I could gather anything from that data (not much, I admit). I thought it was a good use of my time since I'm not sure who I want to lynch anymore.MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon May 07, 2018 11:01 pm
This is the most obvious fake effort post I have ever seen. None of the points you have raised are logical. It's a huge colourful monstrosity that is designed to make you seem like you are contributing. Your last point is just total speculation for instance.
[VOTE: DDL] aubergine
Besides, Sprityo asked for it, and a lot of people said they wanted it implemented in the forum, so I'm not the only one who could use it? And it can be revisited once we get a scum flip and become much more useful.
- Tue May 08, 2018 8:19 am
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Assassination Classroom [ENDGAME]
- Replies: 3660
- Views: 154226
Re: Assassination Classroom [NIGHT 2]
I'm an engineer bro. Emotionless arbitrary calculations is how I feed myself.MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon May 07, 2018 11:04 pmDo you usually decide who to vote for based on emotionless arbitrary calculations with no actual evidence to suggest that the hypothesis is alignment indicative or are you just doing it here because you have no suspects?Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Mon May 07, 2018 7:25 pm I want to push one of those people who kept flip-flopping wagons on Day 1. Jay, Juliets, Mac and Jack. I already gave my reasons why I think Jay is a civ (which should be taken with ten grains of salt) but the others are a big question mark in my imaginary rainbow.
Now seriously, I see no problem applying hard logic to problems like this just to see what happens.
- Tue May 08, 2018 8:19 am
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Assassination Classroom [ENDGAME]
- Replies: 3660
- Views: 154226
Re: Assassination Classroom [NIGHT 2]
Not necessarily. If one of those wagons was on a baddie, leaving it is a scum tell.MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon May 07, 2018 11:05 pm Flip flopping wagons is a town tell not a scum tell btw.
- Tue May 08, 2018 8:22 am
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Assassination Classroom [ENDGAME]
- Replies: 3660
- Views: 154226
Re: Assassination Classroom [DAY 3]
I'd say... not when the person is in danger of being lynched soon, because we aren't THAT merciful. GoC shows a lot of examples of that.Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue May 08, 2018 12:25 am The mafia team has (presumably):
Killed Dyslexicon
Silenced Scotty
Killed sig
Silenced JJJ
When your team has a mafia silencer, at what point is it optimal to silence one of your own?
Knowing that silenced persons are almost never lynched here, what do you do?
But when the person has just a little suspicion on them and wants to stall... may be a good use of it.
- Tue May 08, 2018 8:28 am
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Assassination Classroom [ENDGAME]
- Replies: 3660
- Views: 154226
Re: Assassination Classroom [DAY 3]
[VOTE:
MacDougall] aubergine
His reaction to me trying to analyse votes is to smear the whole method... after I mention him in the suspect list.
I mean it's not like I'm trying to invent the wheel this is basic vote analysis only with colors. We do that every game.
Yeah this is OMGUS but fuck it.
His reaction to me trying to analyse votes is to smear the whole method... after I mention him in the suspect list.
I mean it's not like I'm trying to invent the wheel this is basic vote analysis only with colors. We do that every game.
Yeah this is OMGUS but fuck it.
- Tue May 08, 2018 8:32 am
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Assassination Classroom [ENDGAME]
- Replies: 3660
- Views: 154226
Re: Assassination Classroom [DAY 3]
Hey [mention]Quin[/mention] why does the poll lack an end time?
- Tue May 08, 2018 10:08 am
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Assassination Classroom [ENDGAME]
- Replies: 3660
- Views: 154226
Re: Assassination Classroom [DAY 3]
Well there was a 2 minute difference maybe he read my post and thought "oh yeah I wanna put my vote there too".
- Tue May 08, 2018 10:45 am
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Assassination Classroom [ENDGAME]
- Replies: 3660
- Views: 154226
Re: Assassination Classroom [DAY 3]
It's more like there is more data in the day 1 lynch than in day 2.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue May 08, 2018 10:10 am The Day 2 lynch was calm, controlled, and featured very little vote motion.
A civilian was still lynched.
I don’t understand why the events of Day 1 are being viewed as more suspicious. That’s backwards.
People changing back and forth from lynches tells more about them than everyone collectively voting the low posters.
Sure, the people voting for the low posters are really suspicious, but there is a whole lot less meat for us to look at.
- Tue May 08, 2018 10:57 am
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Assassination Classroom [ENDGAME]
- Replies: 3660
- Views: 154226
Re: Assassination Classroom [DAY 3]
But Avito was a civ. There were 7 people voting for the guy who did nothing. It is a ridiculously easy wagon for a mafioso to jump in.juliets wrote: ↑Tue May 08, 2018 10:55 amWhy are the people voting for the low poster "really suspicious"? You played GOC - remember the low posting there from INH, Lorab, Dr. Wilgy, Marmot, and Boomslang? All were mafia. I learned there that there really is some truth to the low poster=sometimes a mafia tell.Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Tue May 08, 2018 10:45 amIt's more like there is more data in the day 1 lynch than in day 2.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue May 08, 2018 10:10 am The Day 2 lynch was calm, controlled, and featured very little vote motion.
A civilian was still lynched.
I don’t understand why the events of Day 1 are being viewed as more suspicious. That’s backwards.
People changing back and forth from lynches tells more about them than everyone collectively voting the low posters.
Sure, the people voting for the low posters are really suspicious, but there is a whole lot less meat for us to look at.
I am not sure who I want to vote for today but I'm not feeling a DDL vote. I don't feel a Mac vote either. I'm going to take a look at sprityo, nova, Marmot and maybe INH.
- Tue May 08, 2018 11:13 am
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Assassination Classroom [ENDGAME]
- Replies: 3660
- Views: 154226
Re: Assassination Classroom [DAY 3]
juliets I'm not trying to find blame in the civs who thought this was a good idea.
I'm trying to find the baddies who blended with them.
In fact, this wasn't a bad idea. Avito wasn't doing anything. It was a good shot to make. But it's also a good lynch to look at, possibly.
I'm trying to find the baddies who blended with them.
In fact, this wasn't a bad idea. Avito wasn't doing anything. It was a good shot to make. But it's also a good lynch to look at, possibly.
- Tue May 08, 2018 11:14 am
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Assassination Classroom [ENDGAME]
- Replies: 3660
- Views: 154226
Re: Assassination Classroom [DAY 3]
Make your point. Whose vote is suspicious?
- Tue May 08, 2018 12:09 pm
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Assassination Classroom [ENDGAME]
- Replies: 3660
- Views: 154226
Re: Assassination Classroom [NIGHT 2]
Yes.juliets wrote: ↑Tue May 08, 2018 11:24 amDDL, is this somehow telling me what order the votes were in? Like who voted Avito 1st, 2cnd, 3rd, etc?Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Mon May 07, 2018 7:23 pm Day 2
Spoiler: show
Jay
Sprityo
Avito
Scotty
juliets
Epi
Scotty
DDL
wolbre
Jay
LC
Jay
nova
Mac
Marmot
Epi
Jack
Kyle
Avito
Scotty (unknown time)
Note: Scotty's votes are weird because he was silenced. I don't know who his first vote was for (only saw people commenting on it) and I don't know when he changed it to Avito.
Well there are two clear wagons here. nova and Avito. All of the day's focus is on them. Avito was a civ. nova may or may not have been bad. If nova is bad, this is pure gold, otherwise, meh. This was a low activity day, after all.
Excluding Scotty's votes because I can't see when they were made.
- Tue May 08, 2018 12:16 pm
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Assassination Classroom [ENDGAME]
- Replies: 3660
- Views: 154226
Re: Assassination Classroom [DAY 3]
Vote movement alone isn't suspicious, but specific vote changes can be, depending on the alignment of the people being voted for.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue May 08, 2018 12:08 pm While I investigate the Day 2 votes, I want someone to tell me why vote movement is suspicious.
- Tue May 08, 2018 2:19 pm
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Assassination Classroom [ENDGAME]
- Replies: 3660
- Views: 154226
Re: Assassination Classroom [NIGHT 2]
I don't like the use of the word "fault" as if this is some crime. But it kind of is? I'm not doing it just for myself.Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Tue May 08, 2018 12:23 pmSo it’s Sprityo’s fault is it?Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Tue May 08, 2018 8:17 amIt is total speculation. I didn't do this because I wanted to make a point. I did it to produce data, then analyse whether I could gather anything from that data (not much, I admit). I thought it was a good use of my time since I'm not sure who I want to lynch anymore.MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon May 07, 2018 11:01 pm
This is the most obvious fake effort post I have ever seen. None of the points you have raised are logical. It's a huge colourful monstrosity that is designed to make you seem like you are contributing. Your last point is just total speculation for instance.
[VOTE: DDL] aubergine
Besides, Sprityo asked for it, and a lot of people said they wanted it implemented in the forum, so I'm not the only one who could use it? And it can be revisited once we get a scum flip and become much more useful.
- Tue May 08, 2018 3:01 pm
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Assassination Classroom [ENDGAME]
- Replies: 3660
- Views: 154226
Re: Assassination Classroom [DAY 3]
I mean I'm not gonna pretend it's some halmark of civ work, in fact it was completely useless in FE. But like... vote tracking is vote tracking, maybe something shows up.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue May 08, 2018 2:21 pm I already used DDL's tracked votes once, so it's not without application.
- Tue May 08, 2018 3:02 pm
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Assassination Classroom [ENDGAME]
- Replies: 3660
- Views: 154226
Re: Assassination Classroom [DAY 3]
I recall INH looked decent but then he kind of disappeared? Not much different from GoC where he was bad tbh.
- Tue May 08, 2018 3:05 pm
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Assassination Classroom [ENDGAME]
- Replies: 3660
- Views: 154226
Re: Assassination Classroom [DAY 1]
I disagree, he posted a fuckload of fluff, but there are some useful posts here and there. Sounds like you're trying to throw shit on him.wolbre04 wrote: ↑Tue May 08, 2018 2:46 pmNone of INHs posts are meaningful tbhinsertnamehere wrote: ↑Thu May 03, 2018 7:25 pmDyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu May 03, 2018 6:27 pmI was wondering this too. I speak Jimmeeey this game. Jimmeeeeeeeey!
I'm a nice cool person who finds Day 1 and apparently day 2 and 3play utterly baffling and usually either hangs back or gets annoyed when people start poking at me.
I agree with the prevailing opinions against LC and Lapluie, although both of their responses to getting heat seem genuine. GTH, I'd say Lapluie is more likely to be bad, but I wanna hear more from both of them. I'll probably take a look at JoH's ISO at some point, I don't really have a read on him right now.
fuck it, i'll hop on board the train as an extra stowaway.
[VOTE: Lapluie] aubergine
- Tue May 08, 2018 3:11 pm
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Assassination Classroom [ENDGAME]
- Replies: 3660
- Views: 154226
Re: Assassination Classroom [DAY 3]
I can't for the life of me remember what Epi's position is. He is changing it a lot and for little reason.
Like he always does that, but maybe this game he is overdoing it?
Like he always does that, but maybe this game he is overdoing it?
- Tue May 08, 2018 3:11 pm
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Assassination Classroom [ENDGAME]
- Replies: 3660
- Views: 154226
Re: Assassination Classroom [DAY 3]
I mean I can see he's voting Kyle but I don't think he said why either?
- Tue May 08, 2018 3:12 pm
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Assassination Classroom [ENDGAME]
- Replies: 3660
- Views: 154226
Re: Assassination Classroom [DAY 3]
Maybe in Day 7 he will reveal what his master plan was.
- Tue May 08, 2018 3:42 pm
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Assassination Classroom [ENDGAME]
- Replies: 3660
- Views: 154226
Re: Assassination Classroom [DAY 3]
Ok so
[VOTE: Epignosis] aubergine
until he at least explains what's up with that random-ass Kyle vote.
[VOTE: Epignosis] aubergine
until he at least explains what's up with that random-ass Kyle vote.
- Tue May 08, 2018 8:07 pm
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Assassination Classroom [ENDGAME]
- Replies: 3660
- Views: 154226
- Tue May 08, 2018 8:10 pm
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Assassination Classroom [ENDGAME]
- Replies: 3660
- Views: 154226
Re: Assassination Classroom [DAY 3]
I can consider both the universe where you are bad and the one where Avito is bad, you know.novaselinenever wrote: ↑Tue May 08, 2018 7:58 pmOh, I agree with it. And it's not the only thing that is fake from him. He's been beating around the bush with me and Avito since D1 and sitting on the fence. Agreeing with my meta assessment of Avito but continuously throwing shades.MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue May 08, 2018 7:31 pmI got annoyed when he made a big ugly colourful post and made out like I was bad. It felt fake. But nobody agrees so fuck it.novaselinenever wrote: ↑Tue May 08, 2018 7:12 pmI'm flirting with voting DDL. I think that can still happen with a good push.
What's your case on him ?
I'm not 100% sure of either of you.
- Tue May 08, 2018 8:12 pm
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Assassination Classroom [ENDGAME]
- Replies: 3660
- Views: 154226