The Syndicate

That was re: LC's vote.

If Sophie continues to not be very forthcoming with contributions, I'll agree with you guys. But she did say something about being busy, so I'm not personally ready to vote her yet.

Linki: interesting.

I'd be okay with a bullz lynch, tbh. I'd say it has about as much chance of success as a Bass one. Any other candidate has a lower chance at this point, imo.

FTR FZ/BF, I hadn't noticed the curse first. That was DH.

DharmaHelper wrote:Oh I get it, its a curse.

Bass, it says he has cursed playing cards. I made a logical assumption.

Bass_the_Clever wrote:Timmer are you reading the thread or are you cheating and just skimming. I don't understand why you voted for me I feel like you gave a half ass excuse and never asked me any questions about anything.

I explained precisely why I voted for you. I'm simply waiting for you to comment on it. Which you now have. Frankly, this came across as an annoyed baddie who can't believe he took a vote for something unanticipated. My vote stays. Call it half assed if you think that's the way to change my mind.

Interesting to note that Roxy has voted for Epig.

@Epig, that's an impressive amount of breakdown, my man, but I think FZ's got a valid question to you.

If YOU are civ, and have the unique vantage point of knowing that virtually EVERY vote in the Day 1 lynch was spread between two civs, what purpose is there in doing a detailed examination of one side of the lynch versus the other? Is it because highlighting the people who voted you would look too NO U-y or something?

What if the baddies aren't even spread out evenly, and somehow more of them ended up voting you?

Or are you bad, and figured that by doing something as obviously one-sided as looking only at th llama voters, that we would assume you can't be bad, because that would paint an obvious target on you? Like, it's a WIFOM move?

As it is, I'm basing my vote for today on my own hunches. And, in fact I'm voting bass for now. He came back in and didn't even try to offer up a response to my idea about him. I may change it to bullz if bass manages a decent response.

votes bass

Black Rock wrote:
Seems like normal Rabbit to me. Throughout the day I have been some catch up. I was very far behind. I'm hoping to have some time tonight to go over things and see how I feel about people. I have no solid suspicions yet.

I'm not sure. His post re: LC feel genuine, but his BF posts don't. Could we have a curser AND a case-forcer, or whatever you call it? Either way, if that's what's going on, rabbit won't likely be allowed to hint that we're right, so it just means I am choosing to listen to him more regarding LC atm. And in terms of LC, his play style seems to have shifted from the one I remember, he's kind of laid back and very helpful seeming lately, but I don't know how to read that yet. Rabbit clearly thinks it's a sign of LC being bad.

Where I'm at with this lynch:

I still am pinged by Roxy but won't vote for her while apparently silenced. Not this early in the game, anyway, if i had a rock solid case later on I would.

My ping on SVS is still there but she has handled today very well and thanks to either her honesty or solid abilities at being a lying FEB, I don't feel like I've much here to promote a vote.

I don't feel like bullz has really fixed my perception of him, so I may vote his way.

My other issue here is Bass. Bass seems to be cursed, having to say cheat in every post. As soon as people noticed that and mentioned it, he sort of disappeared. Here's my conspiracy theory: the role that seems to involve curses is Double Down (cursed playing cards). He is a New Rogue. Another New Rogue is Blacksmith who needs to find her teamies and gain btsc. Considering that Bass was in NO way a major poster in the game on Day 1, and is kind of a weird choice to be cursed, I feel like there is a decent chance that Bass is Double Down, cursed himself, and is using it as a shout out to Blacksmith. He basically posted a whole bunch of fluff posts to get the curse noticed, and then four hours later posted in the sockys thread but never actually tried to contribute to the game.

My vote will be for bullz or Bass, at this point.

FZ. wrote:t up like you claim, you would have seen that a few people said Eloh's reply was fishy (TH and I come to mind as an example of those people), so claiming no one paid attention to it, would be either a lie or negligence.
Second, it obviously did make sense to bring it up yourself because other than me, I see no one really looking at you as a suspect (maybe Sophie, considering her last post). Like I said, I think it was a tactic to make you look good, and it seems like it did pay off.

So now I'm lying about reading the thread? Jeez man, read my posts! Yes I know some people mentioned it, That's why I said THIS:

timmer wrote:I pointed it out, because I see a roomful of people arguing over past games and whether llama would say monkey is he were the monkey, and almost no one really talked about how garbled Eloh's reply was. It's a sign that maybe some of the people who were the most active were choosing not to branch out to other cases/suspicions and also not even looking for others, but adamantly sticking to their chosen one, something that is more of a baddie tell, to me.

Why are you trying so hard to twist my words and make me seem shady?

Epignosis wrote:I am about to make some rather obvious points in a moment, but these are points that people will say I'm using to paint targets on people's backs.

If anyone objects to this, I won't do it. You have eight minutes.

I await the revelations, and yet much more than eight minutes has passed. I am disappoint.

@FZ, certainly think what you want to think. I mean sure, if I were bad and felt that Eloh had stumbled a bit in her response to Epig and no one had really noticed or paid attention to it, it would make perfect sense to bring it up myself and point it... no, wait, actually it wouldn't?

Maybe I've got a civ role, and did an honest read through of the game, including my own predecessor's posts? You don't think that would make a wee bit more sense?

LOL, yes I know how you are, for sure. Which is why I highlighted that we are still talking Day 1 stuff here. Anyone who thinks that their ideas are 100% right this early is just horribly misguided about mafia, imo. I know you know your thoughts aren't 100% sure to be right, and I do as well. I prefer this early to point out what I think is fishy but always with no blinders on.

in fact, that's what drew people to Epig, i suppose, his adamance? (is that a word?) Like, he had an idea of a probability of baddieness, and pursued it as if it were 100% instead of whatever number he had come up with. He worked with deliberate blinders, and that isn't very helpful.

Well, I did do a breakdown of Epig's possible groupings, and found that his actions wouldn't make much sense if he were an Old Rogue, so I agree with you to that point. This also muddles things for me. I didn't like your tactics against him, but at the same time, my breakdown suggests he is more likely to be bad or indy, so my points against you should not be construed as a direct defence of him, if that makes sense.

Turnip Head wrote:Do you still think Epi is bad, SVS? Is anyone else jockeying for your vote right now?

I'd like to hear tho, as well. What do you think of the current state of things, SVS?

S~V~S wrote:
Um, I tried to keep the lynch focused on him becasue I believe he is bad. Isn't that what the point of this game is?

Absolutely, it was just the way you framed his posts that pinged me. Both you and Roxy did it very near each other, both highlighting the "he wants her dead no matter what" angle. For a Day 1, it pinged me. I'm not sure where I'm going to vote yet today; the Bullz/BF thing has shown up as a new option, and Roxy's apparently silenced. And it's not like you are wilting under my gaze, exactly, lol. I'm not one to stay blinkered on a case when it is a Day 1 case.

S~V~S wrote:EBWOP~ and yes, I did see Timmers post, and Aces. I believe Aces to be misguided. Still not sure about Timmer. I was thinking Epi may have been throwing her under the bus for that cred. Maybe not, not sure. But in any case, I totally disagree with their posts since I am not bad, but it is not easy to refute opinion

And like Bullz, I play my baddie game most of the time. Oddly it gets me in trouble more when i am civ than otherwise, but it is what it is. I found it impossible to play my civ game as a baddie, so I switched it up that way instead.

I think it needs to be said here that we ARE still talking about Day 1 activities. While I've highlighted that I'd have voted Roxy or SVS if I had been caught up, those votes would have been based on what still amounts to fairly flimsy material. I've called the main cases crap, but it's not like I've got gold over here, either, I just like my crap better than I liked yours, lol.

This is the problem with Day 1 cases based largely on Day 0 "fun time" antics. Now it is Day 2, but most of what we have to work with is still rippling from these Day 0 things, in a way.

Long Con wrote:A read of Metalmarsh's posts shows that he was (and still is, I think) a big proponent of Epig's lynch. For those who suspect S~V~S and Roxy, how do you feel about Metalmarsh? MM, what's your opinion of those two ladies at this time?

There were several people who questioned Epig's methods on Day 1, and seemed good with his potential lynch. i highlighted Roxy and SVS above the others because they both seemed to be trying to keep the lynch focused on him, more than people like MM were.

But now it looks like Roxy is silenced? Looking at the roles, the most likely silencer is Abra Kadabra, which makes for an interesting question... why would an indy with no apparent motives but survival silence a player who was taking a bit of heat? The only thing I can think of is that there is a chance that Roxy IS that role and did this to herself. It's a ton of conjecture, and there may be other roles who can silence, I just don't see it. But I won't be voting Roxy today, anyway.

Long Con wrote:
What makes you feel not great about bullz' posts about bf? Do you mean how he called him out on likely being a Detective?

Yes, that's exact why. He didn't specifically say it out loud, he just kept mentioning how much bf had been fighting against a llama lynch in a way that seemed to be wanting others to come to the detective conclusion. I found that weird. And while none of our win conditions actually say that we need the detectives to be alive, it's not like they are irrelevant? They fight the New Rogues, which makes them direct allies! So anyone trying to point one out without saying it is more likely to be a New Rogue, imo.

The Day 1 case against bullz wasn't good at all, but his later posts about bf have changed the outlook on him in my eyes.

Roxy is def. on my list of people I'd like to hear from. Also, I'd like to know what Sophie thinks, once she locks in on a game she often has good instincts about things.

And I haven't played with rabbit in forever, but I remember his instincts being pretty good too, so I'd like to see what LC has to say about rabbit's calling him bad.

I don't feel great about bullz' posts about bf, either.

FZ. wrote: Say I accept that, another baddie tendency is to throw out general accusations like this, instead of saying who exactly is catching your attention by doing so, which is what you're doing.

Uhm, yeah I just broke down Day 1 and listed Roxy and SVS as my suspects, FZ. Maybe you should go read that.

I pointed it out, because I see a roomful of people arguing over past games and whether llama would say monkey is he were the monkey, and almost no one really talked about how garbled Eloh's reply was. It's a sign that maybe some of the people who were the most active were choosing not to branch out to other cases/suspicions and also not even looking for others, but adamantly sticking to their chosen one, something that is more of a baddie tell, to me.

DharmaHelper wrote:Timmer I already did the math on an Epi lynch.

LOL yes you did. Maybe consider my numbers as a backup for your own very clearly stronger ones!

While BTSC is a little hard to pin down in this game (neither the arch villains or the detectives actually say they have btsc, for instance, though I assume they probably do, being small groups), I'm a little surprised that you still are pushing bf as suspicious for this, bullz.

Now that I've said all that, let me reverse course and use Epig's own number theories to see if he is bad.

He says that he felt Eloh wasn't invested and that it likely meant that she didn't have BTSC. He thus ruled her out of being Capt. Cold or Heat Wave, or Golden Glider. He then suggested that that meant that, going by probability, there was a much bigger chance that Eloh/me was not an Old Rogue. And then when I didn't vote to save llama he added the "not a detective, either" to that.

So Epig is very happy to see Eloh/me be lynched base on a single guess at probability. SVS feels that a civ Epig would not do that. Let's see if she's right.

So who would pull a gambit like Epig's?

Well, the Arch-Villains, for starters. There are three of them. If Epig is one of them, he wouldn't need to do anything about Eloh's role. He wouldn't care if she were an Old Rogue, a New Rogue, a Detective, it wouldn't matter, she could die and it would presumably help his cause. While their win condition is secret, I can't think it involves jeeping people alive.

Would he do this as a New Rogue? I'm not so sure. It doesn't look like they have BTSC, but some will come if they find each other. And there are 7 of them, a very big faction, so if Epig were a New Rogue, I doubt he would pull this on Eloh, especially if his numbers indicated a good chance of her being one. So I'll rule Epig out of being a New Rogue right now.

Let's rule Epig out of being a detective here, as well, since he didn't fight to save llama. This uses his own logic about the situation. So he is not a detective, and not a New Rogue.

How about an independent rogue? They are a big group. they don't seem to have BTSC. And their job is simply to survive, it seems. Epig could definitely have used his gambit if he were an indy, since what would he care?

And finally, the old rogues. If Epig were an old rogue, he would know that he needs to eliminate the new rogues and Gorilla Grodd. The question becomes, if he felt Eloh/me wasn't an old rogue, would this gambit make sense?

New Rogues+Grodd equals 8 players.

Indy Rogues+other 2 archvillains+detectives+3 old rogues who don't have a btsc factor=14 players

So no, if Epig is an old rogue, and really thought this through and was truly banking on numbers, he would have seen that promoting an Eloh lynch would have a less than 50% chance of hitting someone he needs dead to win the game. Thus, I doubt he is an old rogue.

So, going by numbers, Epig is either an arch-villain or an indy rogue.

I look at this two ways. From a win condition POV, there are NO indy rogues who need to die. And apparently the only arch villain who actually needs to die is Grodd. So in terms of win conditions, I see only a 1 in 9 chance (Grodd vs other arch villains combined with indies) that an Epig lynch would contribute to a win. However, the flip side is that there is almost NO chance that an Epig lynch would harm the cause, in that I don't see him as a detective or an old rogue.

Thus, an Epig lynch would not be a bad thing, but the odds of it being a GREAT lynch are low.

Sorry for the maths.

@SVS, re: the Epig post you linked to:

"Eloh signed up so her pouting husband could have something fun to do. I decided I would kill her Night 1 if I could, or, if that couldn't happen, I would try to get her lynched."

The way I read this is that he means that if he saw a reason to lynch her, as in, a decent possibility that she were bad, he would focus on lynching her. He can feel free to correct or support this idea if he wants. So he came up with his probability case and figured it was actually decent enough to lynch her since he thought she didn't want to be here. I don't think, if he felt that she was civ, and if he was civ, that he'd have gone ahead with his plan. Again, he can feel free to correct me if he wants.

Either way, he's wrong. He freely admits in his line of thinking that there is a certain chance of Eloh/me being certain good roles, and a certain other chance that we are not. He's basing his entire purpose in this game on it, and what he will eventually have to accept, either during the game or afterwards when the roles are revealed, is that the numbers didn't work out the way he thought they would. Just like my Oilers won the draft lottery despite only having a 10% chance, sometimes someone is a good guy even if the list of roles he could be includes many bad ones, as well.

Long Con, if I had been caught up, I think I'd have voted Roxy or SVS.

When the main Day 1 cases are based on jokey stuff or people playing out gambit-type stuff, which is how I would class both llama and Epig, I look to see who was pushing those cases from "that guy is acting weird" to "he is suspicious".

While plenty of people were about Epig, right after Day 1 started, I noticed that Roxy's tone in particular was more built to make him look bad. Roxy, MM and SVS all used the term distracting around the same time, in a negative way. And then later, both Roxy and SVS leaned on the idea that Epig wanted Eloh to die. Like, they were putting his words in an undeniably negative, suspicious light.

Does it make them all bad? No. But for a Day 1, I found that push to bump Epig from weird to suspicious... suspicious. I'd have voted one of them.

Okay, so I've caught up. I'm also tired and achey so I'll just do one sort of sum up post for now.

I think all three of the main cases of Day 1 (Epig, llama, bullz) were crap, tbh. While YES, this was Day 1, and I know those are always a mess, these three cases were each built on meta-information that had a chance of error roughly the same as just picking a name out of a hat.

Both Epig and llama are notorious for a) shaking up their game b) being active posters and c) stirring the shit. But none of those things are an indication of alignment. So the case against llama, that mentioning the monkey so often must = bad, is about as bad as when Vompatti decided to try posting more "normal" as a civ and got lynched for it. And Epig's idea, he'll be sorry to find out, is clever but completely wrong. He's forgetting that probability is called probability because it indicates what is probable, not what actually IS. But is he bad for saying it? I can't say. On one hand, he didn't really try to pursue any other leads or ideas, but on the other, every time someone else brought it up, he was obliged to respond. A Catch-22.

The case on bullz involved so much talk of some previous game and the line "always play my baddie game" that there is no way I would ever follow it.

Something that I noticed. Roxy really honed in on the idea that Epig was suspicious, and so did SVS. They both posted regarding Epig at the start of the day, Roxy more boldly than SVS. But I mention them because they also BOTH pursued later in the day this idea that Epig had said he would rather lynch or NK an absent Eloh than have her replaced.

Now, please, if I've missed a key post point it out to me, but I don't see anywhere where Epig actually ever said that? Sure, he never wavered from his stance about her, but he never said he'd rather kill her than replace her? Where is that?

Both Roxy and SVS brought that up as fact, and it feels very twisty, like maybe they took something else he said and tried to attach different meaning to it to make him look worse. Please point out where I'm wrong, if I am.

And finally, I'm surprised tbh that more people didn't actually Elohcin MORE, as her responses to Epig actually made little sense. Either she completely misread his posts regarding her or completely misunderstood them, because her response was actually backwards from what he had said? Anyway, I'm heading to bed now, but those were the pings I caught.

Epignosis wrote: And timmer? Welcome. Glad you could take the burden off my wife. There's a good pal. I'm sorry you probably did not get an Old Rogue role, and, since you didn't vote to save llama, you didn't get a detective role.

Thanks! And all I can say is that sometimes even the smartest people can come to the most wrong conclusions. You'll want to find a new tangent, my man. I've now caught up through Day 0, working on more later tonight.

Is picking the first player on the poll really random?



:P

Long Con wrote: I don't believe I've seen any games on this site where the entire role list was a secret, but I've realized since Thingyman came to us that several of our Mafia styles are a departure from the broader norm.

Wheel of Time Mafia will have an entirely secret role list.

So yeah I see there are rules for missing votes so I random ed. Ill be caught up by this evening.

Hey all I can't possibly catch up enough to vote before the pool closes. If there are punishments for missing votes i will random or something!