The Syndicate

leetic wrote: ↑Fri Mar 08, 2019 10:00 pm Do you post links to the scum/dead QCs when it's all done here?

Sometimes. That's typically the host's prerogative.

Bounce if you've been a civilian at LyLo and made the wrong vote.

Bounce again if you've been mislynched at LyLo.

sabie12 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 08, 2019 12:35 pmI literally never win ever. So I think I may disappear from mafia again for awhile. Like this just isnt the place for me.

It's not you sabie, it's the alignment you had the misfortune of rolling. Civilians have not won very often in recent memory, and we keep ending up with civilian roles. I've been losing over and over lately too.

I think we're better off with you around, and I hope you'll stay.

Now that we've completed this heist, let's get moving on the next one up.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 08, 2019 1:08 am Yeah, I figured you and Bob would be unconvinced. I thought the Audrey kill especially would be a giveaway like “only Jack shoots an inactive going into lylo.” Luckily she had static reads.

At LyLo I was primarily triggered by two things you did:

You built a thousand convoluted scenarios about who kills who and when and why and who doesn't kill whoever blah blah -- I did the same thing at LyLo in Phenon: Origins to secure my own mafia win there. It looked very fake to me.

Then when you criticized leetic for failing to consider sabie as a mafioso enough, I was like "what the fuck? Jack hasn't given that theory any attention either"

It hardly matters. I was dead. I don't envy leetic or sabie (and I certainly don't blame them) for what they had to contend with.

I wanted Jack's head at LyLo.

I was pretty into his case against bob a few days back though. I thought that was his best achievement here, getting that mislynch outside the general POE.

Thanks for hosting Epi. You took full advantage of the creative potential in a heist.

We'll see how players can handle the next nine months trying to wrest that Best Mafioso socky from you, Jackaroo.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 08, 2019 12:40 amJaggedJimmyJay
Good god you are scurry when you’re towning.

It may have been the best Day/Night 1 I've ever played, but that's a blessing and a curse. Mafia can't be won in one day.

Not sure why the thread was locked. Sometimes that's glitchy. Jack must have been salivating for a chance to gloat.

It's open.

The mafia glory has been logged into the Hall of Fame forever.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 21, 2019 2:30 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Feb 21, 2019 2:24 pm First of all, I am not prepared to discard a mafia team comprised of Lunalee, Jack, and speedchuck. I see no good reason why that can't exist. I'll assess the rest separately.
Jack: We are getting murdered out there. How did Jay find us already?
Speed: No kidding. Jay is so good at mafia. At least Luna is safe.
Luna: Hold my beer.

Good game you rotten bastards.

You did everything you had to do, Mr. ofhearts. The team that most deserved to win the game is the team that did win the game.

Spoiler: show

Happy "dating anniversary" to nutella and nutella's bf.

Parting words if I die: don’t be lynch wimps. Don’t default.

Elohcin wrote: ↑Thu Feb 21, 2019 5:50 pmIndie came to mind because you didn't seem to care if you were lynching a civ or baddie.

What made you think I didn't care about speedchuck's alignment?

Just here clicking refresh once in a while during class. We could use some cot-damned posting right here in these parts.

I'm going to lynch Jack for posting Giant Jackie Chan twice.

Does anyone think rey looks bad at face value? As in, do his posts bother you on the level of intuition?

I don’t think so.

Do your thing, [mention]reywaS[/mention].

Yeah u right nutella. I did that too. Muh bad B.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 21, 2019 2:58 pm I want to go check vote order to see if Jay is right about when the Speed wagon dissolved but I’m getting Fire Emblem ptsd.

Thankfully I think most people have been calling their votes with the tags.

I wonder if I'll assign my Cognitive Psychology students next fall as much homework as I assign to the people I play Mafia with.

By the way, I included those eight specific players in the chart because they're the ones to have appeared in the various POE lists provided so far. I don't think I missed anyone.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 21, 2019 2:40 pm This is the year I get a townie award. Maybe not best townie. Maybe not in this game. But I’m going to have a good town year. My last three town games on MU were each better than all my previous town games over the past two years.

Do it. Push for it. I am clearly already trying to reclaim my Socky from Sloonei (2017) and nutella (2018). Join the fight, and civilian play across the site will be elevated.

now = not

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Feb 21, 2019 2:31 pm There is one decent way of narrowing the POE pool, but it requires a lot of work. I will likely not have enough time during this night phase to finish it all, but perhaps the seedlings can be planted.

Interactive analyses of all POE candidates isolates compatible and incompatible teams (as best as the analyst can tell) and may facilitate the removal of a player from the pool. It's the ambitious matrix work I have done in a few past games. I'll provide a template chart.

Fill in the blanks. Check every 2-way interaction, decide how compatible the two are as mafia teammates, and indicate that in this chart with a color (green for not appearing teamed, red for team-indicative, orange for team-compatible, yellow for [no, yellow sucks, you're now allowed to include yellow]).

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 21, 2019 2:30 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Feb 21, 2019 2:24 pm First of all, I am not prepared to discard a mafia team comprised of Lunalee, Jack, and speedchuck. I see no good reason why that can't exist. I'll assess the rest separately.
Jack: We are getting murdered out there. How did Jay find us already?
Speed: No kidding. Jay is so good at mafia. At least Luna is safe.
Luna: Hold my beer.

What can I say? *sits in front of Socky, Maffie, and MU trophy case admiring my own reflection in the gold*

There is one decent way of narrowing the POE pool, but it requires a lot of work. I will likely not have enough time during this night phase to finish it all, but perhaps the seedlings can be planted.

Interactive analyses of all POE candidates isolates compatible and incompatible teams (as best as the analyst can tell) and may facilitate the removal of a player from the pool. It's the ambitious matrix work I have done in a few past games. I'll provide a template chart.

reywaS wrote: ↑Thu Feb 21, 2019 2:26 pm
colonialbob wrote: ↑Thu Feb 21, 2019 1:05 pm
reywaS wrote: ↑Thu Feb 21, 2019 12:57 pm and you seemed to be trying to find baddie motivations behind me asking JJJ questions. Sloonei was 100% feels.
I'd love some content not related to people's views of you
you say that as if all of my content this game has been the self centered variety.

In recent memory a lot of his has been. I'd also like to hear what your reads are of everyone else apart from how people have treated you. There's value in the reads you've given on that front, but a different approach would help.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 21, 2019 2:20 pm And I had been on Speed basically the whole day while Luna defended him.

So why does scum Luna come in and break up the lynch her wolf buddy has been pushing up and make it more likely that her buddy gets lynched instead? Or she ultimately gets lynched instead. It was like 5 Speed votes, 2 Jack votes and 2 votes on...Rey? someone I wasn’t paying attention to, for awhile before anyone was really looking at Luna.

Luna didn't break up the speedchuck lynch. It was already broken. We'd moved. You and leetic were the last to vote Luna (before leetic moved to you). After the speedchuck wagon lost me and nova voted Luna, the balance was already shifted.

First of all, I am not prepared to discard a mafia team comprised of Lunalee, Jack, and speedchuck. I see no good reason why that can't exist. I'll assess the rest separately.

sabie12 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 21, 2019 2:12 pm Sorry I have been at the hospital today haven't been able to participate. Glad you guys caught one of the baddies! I'll have to catch up at some point if I'm able to

I hope you're doing alright sabie! Take your time.

leetic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 21, 2019 1:45 pm My one question is, if both Lunalee and Jack are scum, why didn't they just hound speedchuck?

It's a very speculative and WIFOM thing to discuss, but I can provide a few potential reasons (any one or combination of which may be applicable):

~ Both of them moving on speedchuck together is an associative risk that they wanted to avoid.

~ Once the Lunalee wagon had grown to a lead or tied for the lead, the mafia team has to brace itself for the potential that she'll die. That's typically when those in BTSC are talking about "to bus or not to bus".

~ Either of them moving back to speedchuck after the rest of us has exodus'd that wagon is in isolation risky (or perceived as risky).

~ At a certain point, it wouldn't have been enough to give speedchuck an outright tally lead. If so, Luna is getting lynched either way -- might as well make it look good.

bob's grievances with Elohcin are resonating too. She was close to correct in her assumptions about my strategies, but I don't know why "indie" was in her mindset. Early in games, I think mafia members are generally more indie-conscious than civilians.

I can't get to 5 yet in my POE, and I am left with 7 (ordered alphabetically):

Elohcin
Jackofhearts2005
leetic
reywaS
sabie12
Sloonei
speedchuck

I need to get rid of two of these people.

At face value, among these people as of right this instant, the two that I think look most like civilians are leetic and reywaS. For each of them, I see authenticity and organic posts. The interactions and some of the details don't work their way. Generally when I find myself in that conflict, I side with the gut: a dirty record can be civilian-indicative anyway.

Do your thing [mention]Jackofhearts2005[/mention]. I'm interested to see what POE you arrive at.

[mention]reywaS[/mention], I have no idea what you think of speedchuck apart from one GTH read (good). Please help me out there.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 21, 2019 1:22 pm Is this an answer or a statement? If it’s a statement, tell me which letters are which people.

A and B (speedchuck and reywaS) have similar reads, but C (Luna) does not.

The other thing you said was about bob's posts (whether he mentioned people), not those three.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 21, 2019 1:15 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Feb 21, 2019 1:13 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 21, 2019 1:09 pmThis is you coming into an iso with the idea that I’m bad and then using confirmation bias to say this is evidence of it.
Before I did that analysis I expected to think you'd look better.
Okay. Then why when I take ABC and say A is different in one way and B is different in another are you like “Jack isolating B. ”?

"A and B have a visible connection that does not apply to C"

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 21, 2019 1:09 pmThis is you coming into an iso with the idea that I’m bad and then using confirmation bias to say this is evidence of it.

Before I did that analysis I expected to think you'd look better.

leetic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 21, 2019 1:01 pmThe main reason I am a little less suspicious of Jack than the others is because Luna voted him during EOD, rather than jumping on speedchuck's wagon which would have made sense from a self preservation perspective. Don't get me wrong, a Jack lynch isn't off the table, it's just that I find the other two more suspicious.

Does it mean anything to you that when Luna's wagon immediately ballooned to six votes, the speedchuck wagon was only at two? This means Jack and speed were approximately equivalent as counterwagon options.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Feb 21, 2019 12:33 pm The progression from Luna's vote for Jack to Jack's vote for Luna:

Spoiler: show
Lunalee wrote: ↑Wed Feb 20, 2019 6:06 pm
novaselinenever wrote: ↑Wed Feb 20, 2019 6:04 pm [VOTE: Lunalee] aubergine
lol, okay.
[VOTE: JackofHearts] aubergine
Let's make a three-way tie and hash this out, shall we?

Lunalee wrote: ↑Wed Feb 20, 2019 6:07 pm linki: dang speed, you broke the tie as soon as I made it.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Feb 20, 2019 6:08 pm Much as I like ties...

reywaS wrote: ↑Wed Feb 20, 2019 6:08 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Feb 20, 2019 5:30 pm
Elohcin wrote: ↑Wed Feb 20, 2019 5:23 pmI back luna on this. The votes on chuck seem suspicious and I am not even close to certain of chuck's alignment either. From the get-go, JJJ has been saying BS about this player and that player whether is be of their civviness or baddiness. He has been doing whatever he can just to get people to participate. I think that this his vote for chuck and hard go on chuck is the same thing. I don;t think JJJ CARES if chuck si good or bad. I think he just thinks that it will get people working to solve the game. I think JJJ could be indie.
Apart from the indie thing, you're not far off here. Most of the things that I say and do in any Day 0/1 period is intended to generate a productive environment wherein the civilians have a reasonable opportunity to develop reads (both now and into future phases). I am playing the motivator and facilitator roles I described in the linked thread there. I think most successful civilian teams need someone doing these things.

That isn't to say I don't care about speedchuck's alignment though. I do. It isn't imperative to lynch a mafioso on Day 1, and the sky won't be falling if there's a mislynch. A correct lynch is still obviously preferred though, and I am trying my best to promote suspicions that I think are most likely to yield that result.
Have you ever done these things as mafia? If so, how often?

Lunalee wrote: ↑Wed Feb 20, 2019 6:09 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 20, 2019 1:48 pm And from everybody else, remind me if Luna buddies as scum or if I’ve just mislynched her for buddying before when she was really town.

Cause her iso is almost like a peace rally while we’re at a debate/execution.
Oh hey, I just saw this. I'm done with peace rallies. Tell me why you shouldn't be lynched.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Feb 20, 2019 6:10 pm *sprinkles the salts of suspicion upon the thread as would global 2017 meme sensation saltbae*

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 20, 2019 6:10 pm
Lunalee wrote: ↑Wed Feb 20, 2019 6:06 pm
novaselinenever wrote: ↑Wed Feb 20, 2019 6:04 pm [VOTE: Lunalee] aubergine
lol, okay.
[VOTE: JackofHearts] aubergine
Let's make a three-way tie and hash this out, shall we?
Yuck. How bout no?

Linki: Cause you’re being lynched.

[VOTE: Lunalee] aubergine

That's every post that occurred in that moment. I have to step away, so I'll talk about this in a bit.

Alright, about this. I wasn't sure if the linki preceding Jack's vote for Luna featured someone else voting for her. That'd provide Jack with an added motive and more wagon momentum to throw his own vote in the ring. That's not the case though, and his post-linki "Cause you're being lynched" is a response to Luna asking in this space "Tell me why you shouldn't be lynched". So it's more of a snark response and the linki on its own may not mean much. I'll leave others to judge that and the progression in general.

It's a minor point in my perception of Jack anyway.

The progression from Luna's vote for Jack to Jack's vote for Luna:

Spoiler: show

Lunalee wrote: ↑Wed Feb 20, 2019 6:06 pm
novaselinenever wrote: ↑Wed Feb 20, 2019 6:04 pm [VOTE: Lunalee] aubergine
lol, okay.
[VOTE: JackofHearts] aubergine
Let's make a three-way tie and hash this out, shall we?

Lunalee wrote: ↑Wed Feb 20, 2019 6:07 pm linki: dang speed, you broke the tie as soon as I made it.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Feb 20, 2019 6:08 pm Much as I like ties...

reywaS wrote: ↑Wed Feb 20, 2019 6:08 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Feb 20, 2019 5:30 pm
Elohcin wrote: ↑Wed Feb 20, 2019 5:23 pmI back luna on this. The votes on chuck seem suspicious and I am not even close to certain of chuck's alignment either. From the get-go, JJJ has been saying BS about this player and that player whether is be of their civviness or baddiness. He has been doing whatever he can just to get people to participate. I think that this his vote for chuck and hard go on chuck is the same thing. I don;t think JJJ CARES if chuck si good or bad. I think he just thinks that it will get people working to solve the game. I think JJJ could be indie.
Apart from the indie thing, you're not far off here. Most of the things that I say and do in any Day 0/1 period is intended to generate a productive environment wherein the civilians have a reasonable opportunity to develop reads (both now and into future phases). I am playing the motivator and facilitator roles I described in the linked thread there. I think most successful civilian teams need someone doing these things.

That isn't to say I don't care about speedchuck's alignment though. I do. It isn't imperative to lynch a mafioso on Day 1, and the sky won't be falling if there's a mislynch. A correct lynch is still obviously preferred though, and I am trying my best to promote suspicions that I think are most likely to yield that result.
Have you ever done these things as mafia? If so, how often?

Lunalee wrote: ↑Wed Feb 20, 2019 6:09 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 20, 2019 1:48 pm And from everybody else, remind me if Luna buddies as scum or if I’ve just mislynched her for buddying before when she was really town.

Cause her iso is almost like a peace rally while we’re at a debate/execution.
Oh hey, I just saw this. I'm done with peace rallies. Tell me why you shouldn't be lynched.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Feb 20, 2019 6:10 pm *sprinkles the salts of suspicion upon the thread as would global 2017 meme sensation saltbae*

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 20, 2019 6:10 pm
Lunalee wrote: ↑Wed Feb 20, 2019 6:06 pm
novaselinenever wrote: ↑Wed Feb 20, 2019 6:04 pm [VOTE: Lunalee] aubergine
lol, okay.
[VOTE: JackofHearts] aubergine
Let's make a three-way tie and hash this out, shall we?
Yuck. How bout no?

Linki: Cause you’re being lynched.

[VOTE: Lunalee] aubergine

That's every post that occurred in that moment. I have to step away, so I'll talk about this in a bit.

reywaS wrote: ↑Thu Feb 21, 2019 12:28 pm question....at what point did JoH2005 vote for Lunalee?

Shortly after she voted for him. He responded without a vote initially, got a linki, and then added his vote for her. I am actually going to revisit that now to determine what new posts came into the thread to generate that linki for Jack.

reywaS wrote: ↑Thu Feb 21, 2019 12:27 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Feb 21, 2019 12:22 pm
reywaS wrote: ↑Thu Feb 21, 2019 12:14 pm I have a gif for all this bogus suspicion of me....

wait for it
Whose suspicion of you is bogus?
Sloonei and maybe leetic....possibly nutella. Sloonei's suspicion of me smells the worst.

Such "maybe". Such "possibly".

What makes Sloonei's the worst?

reywaS wrote: ↑Thu Feb 21, 2019 12:14 pm I have a gif for all this bogus suspicion of me....

wait for it

Whose suspicion of you is bogus?

leetic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 21, 2019 12:09 pm One thing I found interesting is that, with my switch to the Jack wagon, votes were 4-5, meaning it would be easy for scum to flip the lynch if they wanted to. Get, for some reason, they didn't.

There are a few potential conclusions that can be drawn from this:

1. Scum was already on the Jack wagon, and thus couldn't switch.
2. Scum wasn't around during EOD.
3. Jack himself is scum.

If conclusion 1 is correct, that's not a good look for reywaS, and likewise with sabie and conclusion 2. Thus, I think either of them would be good targets for D2.

For the sake of detail in our continuing dialogue I will note that your vote switch came 23 minutes prior to the deadline. That's how much time anyone would have had to tip the scales to Jack.

What prevents you from favoring option 3?

I think leetic looks good at face value. The interactions are questionable (not terrible, but questionable). That conflict is difficult to sort.

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