The Syndicate

I was just a delayed watcher. Nook accidentally gave me my night 1 results on time tho.

alexa wrote: ↑Sun Feb 13, 2022 6:53 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Feb 13, 2022 6:50 pm
alexa wrote: ↑Sun Feb 13, 2022 6:47 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Feb 13, 2022 6:39 pm How did the soup mechanics work? How much info did the mafia team have about all the roles?
not much. we had a n0 result on a random player (was on nutella) as an exchange for having to kill someone in our faction (dya's loyal day vig). we then used dizzy's 1-shot rolecop on belzy because we figured belzy+porscha were linked

then we only had the info town shared, so we figured falcon was town JOAT. i think we speculated on you being the gift giver, but it was a risky soup
yeah syn posted the soup in spec chat. It failed because dya had me as the gift giver.

Why did you think I was that?
dya received an immunity ability on n1.

"Cuirass of the Savior’s Hide

You have received an item! It is the Cuirass of the Savior’s Hide. While you possess this item, you are immune to any non-lethal negative actions taken against you. This includes kill modifiers, but not kills themselves. You will be told if/when you lose possession of this item."

you softed that you were self-clearing in some way + i looked and you were the creator of a game that used a similar ability (and we were aware roles were assigned to people, not randomized) + you were reading dya as town. i dunno, it was really just speculation so i'm surprised they went for the soup with that with only 1 scum left. but, dya didn't have much time to play and was loverized to sabie so i can totally understand wanting to take a leap, i just would've erred on the more cautious side

Oh nice, I was feeling jilted because I hadn’t seen any Elder Scrolls mechanics in this game.

alexa wrote: ↑Sun Feb 13, 2022 6:47 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Feb 13, 2022 6:39 pm How did the soup mechanics work? How much info did the mafia team have about all the roles?
not much. we had a n0 result on a random player (was on nutella) as an exchange for having to kill someone in our faction (dya's loyal day vig). we then used dizzy's 1-shot rolecop on belzy because we figured belzy+porscha were linked

then we only had the info town shared, so we figured falcon was town JOAT. i think we speculated on you being the gift giver, but it was a risky soup

yeah syn posted the soup in spec chat. It failed because dya had me as the gift giver.

Why did you think I was that?

How did the soup mechanics work? How much info did the mafia team have about all the roles?

Aight I can now kick back and relax for 2022 and come back in for next year’s GoC.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sun Feb 13, 2022 5:52 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Feb 13, 2022 5:38 pm My confirming mech, if y’all would have believed me, was that I watched Radishes on Night 1. Since he didn’t reload, I had to be town.

Evidence to support my claim was my questioning of falcon Day 2 followed by immediate acceptance of his claim.
I thought I saw someone peeking in my window.

You looked very cozy.

My confirming mech, if y’all would have believed me, was that I watched Radishes on Night 1. Since he didn’t reload, I had to be town.

Evidence to support my claim was my questioning of falcon Day 2 followed by immediate acceptance of his claim.

Good games everyone. Well played, dya.

Belzy wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 4:04 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 4:03 pm
dyachei wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 5:31 pm
alexa wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 5:30 pm
dyachei wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 5:29 pm alexa im not sure there's much utility in continuing to argue over this. I can't see faking red claims as a wolf role personally. so you have to decide for yourself if this role exists or not?
i've said repeatedly that i just don't believe the role exists, and especially if people are saying NAA does it anyway, why does the role exist and conveniently go to the person who does it anyway?
right so keep your vote there. but like arguing about it for the rest of the day doesnt seem like it's in our best interest and you seem to be getting upset
Is this a teammate interaction?
I can see your point where Dizzy and I had very different tones, and those two more similar.

Interesting. I was thinking it’s not a teammate interaction because it looks like a real disagreement.

Creature wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 4:37 pm Could I be afraid of a dyachei + Sloonei team?

I think that reading the thread today should clearly paint me as town.

dyachei wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 5:31 pm
alexa wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 5:30 pm
dyachei wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 5:29 pm alexa im not sure there's much utility in continuing to argue over this. I can't see faking red claims as a wolf role personally. so you have to decide for yourself if this role exists or not?
i've said repeatedly that i just don't believe the role exists, and especially if people are saying NAA does it anyway, why does the role exist and conveniently go to the person who does it anyway?
right so keep your vote there. but like arguing about it for the rest of the day doesnt seem like it's in our best interest and you seem to be getting upset

Is this a teammate interaction?

Creature wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:36 pm I hope LP flips wolf so maybe we can have Sloonei claim their info tomorrow.

Have I not resolved myself through sheer force of will yet?

I’ll be mostly unavailable for the rest of this phase. Reading dya is a good idea. As is continuing to read other names. If anyone has the time and energy, an analysis of the remaining players’ interactions with each other (Ex. Jpic & LP) could also be useful.

Good luck town, and keep up the good work.

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:19 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:18 pm Actually, before I articulate my concern, I need to ask a question first.
Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 1:52 pm I didn't trust anything Ilario said. I didn't trust the 3p won't inherit the mafia kill because that definitely didn't blow up in my face before.
In what scenario could ilario "inherit the mafia kill"?
If the wolves are all dead and the game was still going on

So ilario would have needed to remain in the game for several phases after killing alexa in order for this to happen. And if it did happen, we would all know it right away. But it would not likely happen because he told us he would disappear from the game after killing alexa if she flipped mafia. If she flipped town, ilario basically would have had no win condition. If she flipped mafia and he stayed in the game, he’d have a very slim win condition.

If ilario’s win condition required him to survive for an extensive period of time after poisomkng alexa, then it never made sense for him to claim the way he did.

Now to get to the point I was originally going to object to here: your fear about ilario inheriting the mafia kill would imply confidence in alexa flipping mafia.

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:19 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:16 pm
Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:06 pm Are you telling me every townie you have played with has a reaction that makes 'sense'.

B) that isn't true because Alexa could have been healed.

"All we were being asked to do was believe him or not believe him with regards to Alexa." - and I chose not to trust him
We knew that Alexa was poisoned. We knew that ilario claimed responsibility. We knew what ilario had told us about his role. We did not know whether it was possible for alexa to be healed.

In the world where alexa was healed, ilario's attempt to achieve his 3p goal would have failed. In which case, he'd be stuck in the thread having outed himself completely unnecessarily. ilario was safely in the towncore at the time of his claim. In this world, there is nothing we can do on Day 4 except wait to see what happens to alexa and ilario. This is what I mean when I say "there was nothing we could do to prevent his actions from resolving." Thus, we were never being asked to "trust" ilario in a game-sense. We were only being asked to trust a singular read he had made, and even that was not strictly necessary. "Trusting" his alexa read just meant playing that day as though alexa might be mafia, rather than confirmed town. Making a fuss about not trusting ilario just impedes our efforts to flesh out reads in the world where alexa is mafia.

I also have another concern which I'll articulate in a separate post.
You're again discounting the possibility that town makes irrational reactions

I’m not. I just think your reaction specifically looks exaggerated.

Actually, before I articulate my concern, I need to ask a question first.

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 1:52 pm I didn't trust anything Ilario said. I didn't trust the 3p won't inherit the mafia kill because that definitely didn't blow up in my face before.

In what scenario could ilario "inherit the mafia kill"?

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:06 pm Are you telling me every townie you have played with has a reaction that makes 'sense'.

B) that isn't true because Alexa could have been healed.

"All we were being asked to do was believe him or not believe him with regards to Alexa." - and I chose not to trust him

We knew that Alexa was poisoned. We knew that ilario claimed responsibility. We knew what ilario had told us about his role. We did not know whether it was possible for alexa to be healed.

In the world where alexa was healed, ilario's attempt to achieve his 3p goal would have failed. In which case, he'd be stuck in the thread having outed himself completely unnecessarily. ilario was safely in the towncore at the time of his claim. In this world, there is nothing we can do on Day 4 except wait to see what happens to alexa and ilario. This is what I mean when I say "there was nothing we could do to prevent his actions from resolving." Thus, we were never being asked to "trust" ilario in a game-sense. We were only being asked to trust a singular read he had made, and even that was not strictly necessary. "Trusting" his alexa read just meant playing that day as though alexa might be mafia, rather than confirmed town. Making a fuss about not trusting ilario just impedes our efforts to flesh out reads in the world where alexa is mafia.

I also have another concern which I'll articulate in a separate post.

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:06 pm
Belzy wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:05 pm
Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:03 pm Have any of you actually read my past mafia games?
I am playing this game.
So you don't use meta reads at all?

I see no problem with Belzy's approach right now.

Creature wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 1:59 pm I am somewhat afraid of it being dyachei + sabie bullshitting about BTSC

at the very least I believe that they won the poetry contest. No one else has said a word about being rewarded for that. Well, TSP did but he was lying.

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 1:52 pm I didn't trust anything Ilario said. I didn't trust the 3p won't inherit the mafia kill because that definitely didn't blow up in my face before. Again, look at my reaction to HK and tell me there was a difference.

I'm not gonna argue about my reaction because it's frankly fucking silly.

Ilario wasn't going to inherit the nightkill that night in any world anyway. There were still two mafia left after alexa. If ilario did not vanish from the game after killing alexa, we would have known that he was lying and would have had as much of an opportunity to eliminate him as before. My argument here is that it never made sense to react the way that you did to ilario because A) he was not asking us to "trust him", and B) there was nothing we could do to prevent his actions from resolving anyway. All we were being asked to do was believe him or not believe him with regards to Alexa.

You seemed to be at least entertaining suspicion against alexa prior to ilario's claim. After the claim, your attention shifted to distrusting ilario.

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 1:47 pm No, i said we should leave both alexa and ilario alone that day.

Then alexa died from the modkill and i assumed she was going to flip town

So... what were you objecting to, exactly?

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 1:44 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 1:41 pm
Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 1:40 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 1:38 pm I also did not like JPIC's reaction to ilario's claim. It felt exaggerated. He was one of the most vocal opponents to the notion of "trusting a 3p." But, as I was arguing at the time, we were not being asked to trust a 3p. ilario poisoned alexa, then presented his argument for doing so, then told us he was 3p. All actions had already been set in motion by the time the claim came out. Jpic's resistance to ilario feels now like a sort of smoke screen to keep us from diving too deeply into the "Alexa is mafia" worldview that day.
Context matters.
Yes, I believe that was part of my argument at the time as well.
Right so you can see why someone who was in the infamous goc 2020 would be nervous about the 3p

Look at my reaction to hk

Skepticism is fine. Your response to ilario specifically felt overblown.

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 1:42 pm What if alexa had flipped town (as that was what I was expecting to happen) and ilario was still around. We just blindly allow a 3p running amok in the game

Then we'd be playing a game that is entirely different from the one we're in. Alexa did not flip town. The reason I was willing to listen to ilario was because I believed in his case against alexa. And he turned out to be right.

Are you suggesting that we should have voted for ilario that day?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 1:06 pm
Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 12:58 pm c'mon man, a 3p literally won GoC last year.

ilario could well be telling the truth but i'd be a fool to believe it.
Context is important. The timing and nature of ilario’s claim influences my response to it, believe it or not.

See?

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 1:40 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 1:38 pm I also did not like JPIC's reaction to ilario's claim. It felt exaggerated. He was one of the most vocal opponents to the notion of "trusting a 3p." But, as I was arguing at the time, we were not being asked to trust a 3p. ilario poisoned alexa, then presented his argument for doing so, then told us he was 3p. All actions had already been set in motion by the time the claim came out. Jpic's resistance to ilario feels now like a sort of smoke screen to keep us from diving too deeply into the "Alexa is mafia" worldview that day.
Context matters.

Yes, I believe that was part of my argument at the time as well.

I also did not like JPIC's reaction to ilario's claim. It felt exaggerated. He was one of the most vocal opponents to the notion of "trusting a 3p." But, as I was arguing at the time, we were not being asked to trust a 3p. ilario poisoned alexa, then presented his argument for doing so, then told us he was 3p. All actions had already been set in motion by the time the claim came out. Jpic's resistance to ilario feels now like a sort of smoke screen to keep us from diving too deeply into the "Alexa is mafia" worldview that day.

Belzy wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 1:30 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 1:25 pm
Belzy wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 1:23 pm The work Sloonei is putting in gives me a pause on reading them. Lp is a good lynch today, but then the final one is still something my mind is doubting.
I am currently trying to find reasons why it can't be JPIC.
I started off this day with LP+JPIC, and then LP+Sloonei.

JPIC looked good for their vote on TSP, but maybe worth to look into the context.

Dya, I still give them toen credits for the Marmot kill, but that is potentially dangerous to do.

I have been reading JPIC's ISO but not commenting on it. I was surprised at how underwhelming his TSP interactions were this time around. Granted, I am reading him through the lens of him being mafia right now.
He consistently suggests that TSP is a suspect, but never makes a real push on him or engages in any meaningful discussion around him. It has plenty of distancing potential.

The TSP interactions are what I initially gave him a town-read for, but I no longer feel that is warranted. None of his interactions with the other flipped wolves are inspiring either. The same can be said of his interactions with LinearPoint.

Belzy wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 1:23 pm The work Sloonei is putting in gives me a pause on reading them. Lp is a good lynch today, but then the final one is still something my mind is doubting.

I am currently trying to find reasons why it can't be JPIC.

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 10:54 am Sloonei i will read your walls once i have recovered from hangover

It's really not that important. You can if you want to, but I don't write those posts because I think people need to read them. I do it for my own sake and so that I can reference back to it in later conversations.

The key point with regards to you is that I felt your interactions with Dizzy were all very hollow.

It's 2:30 AM so I'm not about to dive into mac/tsp/alexa ISOs right now. But Dizzy's ISO just brought me right back to where I started today. [VOTE: linearpoint] aubergine again.

The Dizzy Saga: Part III

Spoiler: show

Dya shoots Marmot. Dizzy pats Dya on the back. If I stare through the computer screen and try to gaze into Dizzy's soul, I sense honest disappointment and frustration in that "Nice job". Dizzy is positively SEETHING, can't you tell? Maybe. I dunno. Tentatively calling it a good look for dya. In addition to the much greater Good Luck that comes with, you know, blasting a mafioso on Day 1.

Spoiler: show

More palpable frustration from Dizzy, this time directed at Belzy. Cool. Belzy town, sorry for entertaining doubts.
The bottommost section of this post introduces a bit of Suspect Salad, comprised of Mac, Scotty, and sabie. I don't think sabie names two suspects in a three-player pool. One feels like the right number. Soft good look for sabie.

Spoiler: show

Laying it on too thick to be dya's teammate. Also noting that Dizzy is coming out more aggressively against macyo here. Distancing, but not quite rising to the level of "bussing" yet.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Jan 29, 2022 9:10 pm Alright, if I'm shot by a town gg gl, no hard feelings. Gotta sleep.

Dya
Alexa
Belzy
Sean
Guillo
Alison

Nut
Ilario
Jpic
MR

^towns.

I think this list is long enough to contain multiple teammates. From most to least town: Belzy > dya > Jpic

Spoiler: show

*pretend shock face*

Spoiler: show

Coooool. Without looking at sabie's ISO to confirm whether or not there is anything there RE: Marmot, I do not like this. I didn't like it earlier either. Dizzy has previously expressed the idea of suspicion toward sabie. Why pass up on a great opportunity to shade her here?

Spoiler: show

These two are not teammates.

Spoiler: show

This exists. It tells me very little about dya. But...

Spoiler: show

... this tells me that Porscha is ALSO not Dizzy's teammate. Fancy that.

Spoiler: show

Here is an interaction with Jpic that exists.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 7:10 pm 112
Creature
DrWilgy
hollowkatt
LinearPoint
sabie12
sig
TonyStarkPrime

Boom. If there's not wolf in here I quit mafia forever. Probably.

I believe these are Dizzy's initial 8 votes on the chaos day. Noted x8. I would not be surprised if there are 2 teammates here.

Spoiler: show

I can once again confirm that this JPIC interaction exists.

Spoiler: show

Creature is the "he" in these two posts. There continues to be absolutely nothing of interest between Dizzy and JPIC, but they are talking to each other quite a bit.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 7:47 pm [VOTE: 112 Wilgy Paopan TSP Sabie Sig] aubergine

Suddenly I have votes to spare but that's ok

New votes. Paopan added. Creature, hollowkatt, linearpoint removed. Creature unvote is justified by posts. Hollowkatt and LinearPoint have not been mentioned once, unless I missed something, in Dizzy's ISO in the time between his two vote posts.

Spoiler: show

Four confirmed towns + sabie. Okay.

---------------------------------------------------
Thus concludes the Dizzy saga.
Condensed thoughts on the remaining uncomfirmed players:

Belzy is town. Dizzy gets visible frustrated with Belzy's constant suspicion at multiple points, and Belzy never relents. If they are teammates, this is absolutely masterful distancing. Their tones are way out of sync and they both look completely authentic.
And, of course, if Belzy is town then so is Porscha. Dizzy also hopped on the Porscha wagon Day 1, which is a point in her favor independent of Belzy.
Dya looks slightly good for Dizzy's reaction to marmot's death. It does not look like Dizzy expected it to happen and I could sense some deflation when it happened.
A few question marks surrounding each of sabie and JPIC. More so JPIC because Dizzy talks at him several times, but the two of them never have anything of substance to say to or about the other.
LinearPoint looks like a partner that Dizzy can't justify a town read, but also does not want to push hard.

Although the point about me clearly not being teamed with Dizzy should probably be read there.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:44 am Dude...I'm sorry, but I'm not gonna wade through this novella.

What are your big takeaways. Let's say...200 words or less if ya please

Belzy probably town, LP maybe scum. JPIC kinda the next suspect by default.

I do not expect people to read all of those words. The big posts exist for my own sake and I'm happy to condense them for anyone who asks.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 6:47 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Feb 03, 2022 7:04 pm Guillotine (9): 112, Creature, Sloonei, dyachei, Justplayingitcool, LinearPoint,

At this exact moment, I would point to LinearPoint and JPIC. But that is based on a page and a half of Dizzy's ISO being fresh in my mind, in which nothing conclusive is offered on either of them. But the only other option here is dya, and I feel better about them than the other two.

I am unsure what more I can be expected to say here. My votes on this day were not good. At most we had two wolves available to us this day. I suspect we only had one. Other than hollowkatt, my votes were all based on vague impressions I had about the direction of the thread. I did not read most of Day 1 and was playing Day 2 as though it were my Day 1.

Getting Dizzier:

Spoiler: show

First time acknowledging TSP in the game. Just noting it because TSP is the last of the flipped wolves that Dizzy has interacted with. It is a generic question to weird TSP shenanigans.

Spoiler: show

Is it possible all three of the names in this exchange are mafia? Yes! Likely? I dunno. Dizzy has "been wondering about this for a while" but has pressed absolutely nobody to talk about it and done zero work to find out the truth despite having allegedly almost read the whole game. Noted.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Jan 29, 2022 1:24 pm Town:
Alexa
Ilario
Belzy
Guillo
Sean
Nutella
Alison (think she cares about the game in a town way)
Paopan (don't know them, but surface level this just seems like town)

Jpic and Radish also seem ok.

Decided to color ilario green this time because, from Dizzy's perspective, he is not mafia. Also because ilario is honorary town for catching alexa. Both Belzy and JPIC are named here , so

I remember previously expressing confusion about JPIC and Radishes being listed separately from everyone else. Still confused.

Spoiler: show

Belzy asks a question and Dizzy gives an answer. Noted. Marmot is underwhelming now. So there's a bus. It's a pretty slick move if Mafia Belzy asks Mafia Dizzy to give a read on Mafia Marmot like this. Not impossible, but it's a small micro interaction that I kinda like for Belzy.

Spoiler: show

This is either Dizzy sticking up for a teammate or trying to dig up suspicion against a low hanging fruit. Considering how limply Dizzy has pursued this angle, and the alleged "town potential", I am inclined to say that this is a bad look for LinearPoint. I do not get the sense that Dizzy actually wants to be told that LinearPoint has slipped. Intead, it looks like Dizzy wants to talk about LinearPoint so that the "slip" can be argued away.

Spoiler: show

There is a sabie mention in the spoiler of the first post. Together, these two posts are Dizzy's first acknowledgments of sabie's presence in this game. Given Dizzy's propensity toward not bussing thus far, I am inclined to call this a good look for sabie.

Spoiler: show

I am starting to feel as though the Dizzy/Belzy dynamic is a good look for Belzy. Belzy is constantly the aggressor in these exchanges, and Dizzy's responses feel a bit guarded and safe. If they are partners, their tones are way out of sync in all of their interactions. I would be impressed if that is an act.

Spoiler: show

JPIC expressed skepticism of our Radishy friend, Dizzy makes jokes and goads him along.

Spoiler: show

Aight Belzy might just be town then.

Hold on, let's go see what Falcon is asking me about now. Hitting submit so we can all see where I'm at currently. It's important.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:30 am
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 12:10 am Also I've realized that falcon is 100% confirmed town.
What made you lock that read in?

I'd like more dialogue w/ you about the specifics of my wagon breakdown...in particular, who of the 4 from Guillos wagon is Maf? What's your take on my take away from that NF?

You targeted Master Radishes Night 1. If non-town targeted him Night 1, he would have received a second day vig shot.

I have not looked at any wagons or read any of your analysis on them. I'm currently still in the middle of ISOing Dizzy, but I can take a moment to look at something else. What does NF mean?

Let's just start reading mafia isos and see what comes out of it.

Marmot:

Marmot wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 11:51 pm
LinearPoint wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 11:49 pm
Paopan wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 11:47 pm I am a simple person spreading love.

Anyway,
LP talking from a 3rd person PoV seems new. I'd classified it as NAI at best.
But at this point. I don't see any AtE coming from him. So that's -1 credits coming from Paopan
Neeko wanted to try something new. Best not to read into it.
afaik, Neeko in LoL talks in 3rd person.

A nothing comment providing some background for LinearPoint's post gimmick. Okay.
... and that's it.

Dizzy:

Spoiler: show

I think this looks like a sincere salutation between these two. This may or may not be the first time these two have played in a game together since the 2020 Champs finale. If that is the case, excitement and enthusiasm at seeing each other is reasonable. There might be a slight town lean for dya in this in that the greeting appears sincere, and they might have already seen each other behind the scenes if they were in a mafia chat together. But this point barely registers enough to warrant a mention. It is there.

Spoiler: show

... but then Dizzy looks self-conscious immediately after. Hm.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Jan 29, 2022 6:30 am
Belzy wrote: ↑Sat Jan 29, 2022 5:27 am
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 7:52 pm Hello to everyone actually tbh tbh
Hello Dyslexicon,

How are you doing and how motivated are you for this game?
Belzy! I’m happy that you’re playing.

And I’m not very motivated for this game, at least not until at least half of us has died. Hope we all die soon.

A slightly more substantial exchange with Belzy, in that Belzy at least asked Dizzy a somewhat relevant question. Dizzy's answer looks... like an answer, I guess. This tells me nothing.

Spoiler: show

JPIC and Dizzy trade guillo town reads. JPIC's post feels a bit superfluous, but more so in a careless, stream-of-consciousness kind of way, rather than a strained and obligatory interaction.

Spoiler: show

These are strained words. See how hard Dizzy works to convey a sense of enjoyment. There is not enough here for me to offer an opinion as to the source of that strain; whether it is because Dizzy is feeling overwhelmed at being mafia in such a loud thread, or because he doesn't know how to act naturally in such a small interaction with a teammate.

Spoiler: show

We may presume that Dizzy is feigning surprise/confusion about this mechanic here. We can make no such assumptions about Belzy. I do question whether Dizzy would choose to latch onto this post if Belzy was his teammate, though. Not impossible, but it's a micro-interaction that seems slightly less likely for some reason.

Spoiler: show

This exchange was going nowhere until Dizzy blurted out a town read on Belzy. Belzy seems to make reference to something adjacent to suspicion ("you don't come across townly this way"), but I'm unsure what that is in reference to. I do not think there is enough here for me to read Belzy through this exchange, but this relationship is one that I will keep an eye on as I progress.

Spoiler: show

Does Dizzy make this post if JPIC is his teammate? It seems more or less unprompted. It comes just a few minutes after Dizzy had made this post justifying the Guillo town read to Radishes. There is exactly one post in the thread between Dizzy's Guillo post and the JPIC town read. It is this post from Belzy:

Belzy wrote: ↑Sat Jan 29, 2022 7:10 am I think there is a good chance Dyslexicon is scum this game, but I don't want to make the mistake to tunnel vision day 1. So I just will try to read more players, and because EOD is at midnight for me, I am always here at EOD and I can wait with voting until later. I have no idea if it helps to speculate who would pick who, but I always believe the best way to scum hunt is to read someone as either scummy or not scummy

It is certainly not the case that both Belzy and JPIC are Dizzy's teammates. Belzy opens this post by declaring an early suspicion on Dizzy, but then spends the rest of the post talking about things that are in no way related to that read. On the one hand, I like that Belzy called Dizzy out so early. On the other hand, I dislike that this post does not actually offer any explanation of the read. We are introduced to the idea of suspecting Dizzy, but are given no impetus to push that suspicion forward.
It is impossible to tell whether Dizzy's JPIC post was prompted in any way by Belzy's post. They came just a couple minutes apart. In a vacuum, it is a strange look no matter how you slice it. Mafia Dizzy responds to Town Master Radishes to justify a town read on Town Guillotine, then after a few moments of silence, blurts out "Hey maybe JPIC is town too." Why JPIC? Why that moment? Idk.

Spoiler: show

This exchange is confirmed cute.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Jan 29, 2022 9:12 am On page 16 or something

Town:
Alexa
Guillo
Sean
Marmot
Belzy
Ilario

This list could probably be longer, but these are the people I care more about.

Does Day 1 Dizzy name half of his teammates as town reads during his catch-up? I don't know. it is not impossible. NOTE that Dizzy neglects to name JPIC. I am again unsure what this means. If I have to pick a side, I would say that Dizzy is likely to be more conscious of his fake read on Mafia JPIC than Town JPIC. So JPIC being omitted from the list in this case can be seen as a good thing. But I am hardly convinced of that, and I could easily go either way on that. If it matters at all. Idk again.

Spoiler: show

I have talked about this post previously. Dizzy seemed hyper aware of an alleged slip from LinearPoint on Day 1. I'll do my best to look at this progression with fresh eyes this time around.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Jan 29, 2022 9:18 am I don't really have any scum reads, but I would straight up yeet Sloonei here. He probably doesn't want to play because he's mafia.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Jan 29, 2022 9:18 am So I guess I do have a scum read lol

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Jan 29, 2022 9:20 am We should not chop Marmot D1. He's probably town and in any case his alignment will show, and I'd rather have him around if he's town.

These are three consecutive posts. Not just in Dizzy's ISO, but in the thread as a whole. Nobody else spoke a word in the time that Dizzy made these three posts, which all came within a 2-minute window. I bring this up so that I can shout the following in all caps: DO YOU SEE THIS? ARE YOU LOOKING AT THIS? AND, AFTER LOOKING AT IT, DO YOU REALLY THINK THAT I AM ON THE SAME TEAM AS DYSLEXICON AND MARMOT AT THIS MOMENT?

bonus content
Anyway...

Spoiler: show

Just highlighting this post to emphasize a point about how Dizzy is interacting with known teammates here. Dizzy has (previously) defended Marmot, but appears to be backing off of that slightly at this point. Lacking the full context, but I would assume that the Marmot suspicion is growing at this point. More importantly, Dizzy introduces a new "very town" read on Alexa here. And Dizzy has also previously voiced support of Mac's soft push on me. So that's 3 teammates who Dizzy has, at one time or another, voiced support of in some form. 2 of them have been outright town reads. Dizzy does not look inclined to drive a bus over anyone at this stage. May be a bad look for JPIC. Potentially also Belzy.

End of Page 1, so I'm gonna hit submit and continue.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 12:51 am How do you read me at this instant, @Porscha?

Porscha wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 1:14 am from what I understand, only way last standing mafia can soup is if they are powerless goon right? that person would want to make it out before the other mafia assuming other mafia has role abilities. did we see a goon flip? was tsp a goon? wonder if we already flipped the 1 goon or something

No. Any mafia member can soup any time except a vanilla goon. Vanilla goon can only soup if they are the last team member standing.

How do you read me at this instant, @Porscha?

Porscha wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 12:35 amwhat is ebwop

"edit by way of post", since we're not allowed to actually edit posts in-game. Just correcting a typo.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 12:24 am I also felt that JPIC TSP and Mac treated him in a way that I would not expect from teammates.

ebwop

Porscha wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 12:27 am
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 12:07 am
Porscha wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 11:44 pm there is no way you can say me and belzy were confirmed town before role reveal AND be wolves backed into a corner in the same thought process. I know you aren't playing like that rn frfr!!!!
This is not a thing that I said.

You and Belzy were both being treated as town reads by the majority of the thread. Not "confirmed", and probably not universal either. But if there was a towncore at that point, you two were in it.
At the same time, however, you two had clearly and obviously linked yourselves together. When I say that you were "backed into a corner", I mean that you and Belzy, if mafia, could not do anything to unlink yourselves from one another. You had clearly and blatantly shielded each other. If you are mafia and alexa is your partner, this was her attempting to provide the two of you with justification for that strong connection in the thread.

I do find it a bit hard to believe. But it is easier to believe than a world where I am mafia.
yeah there's no way I don't just get bussed or thrown to the wolves (no pun intended) day 1 instead of having 1 out of the few wolves put themselves out there like that. I highly doubt most people here play like that b/c it seems dumb to do, but idk, maybe it's just a thing people do sometimes and I wouldn't know.
also idk why you keep saying you have to look at me and belzy b/c there's a world where you are town. why can't you be town and still have the other poe. I dont get the relation

See my other post. I have doubts about the POE in general.

My thoughts are not concrete. I am actively trying to solve the game right now. That means considering all angles. "Considering all angles" will necessarily mean that I voice some things that are not correct. That could be this. It could be the suspicion against LP, or a new case that I haven't discovered yet. We will see.

Any world that has me as mafia is wrong and I am doing what I can to demonstrate that.

While I am not ruling these people out as suspects:
I struggle to see dya as mafia because they killed Marmot on Day 1 when they were absolutely not in a position to remain invested in this game longterm. Shooting a teammate on Day 1 is not a move I would expect a mafia member to make in dya's position.

I struggle to see JPIC as mafia simply because he passes the eye test. I also felt that JPIC and Mac treated him in a way that I would not expect from teammates.

I feel that sabie is town because she has a believable tone, has appeared distressed about the suspicion against her in a way that seems honest, and because dya has suggested that all of these things are reflected in their private chat as well.

LP remains as a suspect, but some of their behavior today has had me second guessing this. Additionally, I am struggling to identify the last remaining mafioso in the world where LP is bad.

Also I've realized that falcon is 100% confirmed town.

Porscha wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 12:06 am i'm willing to believe you are still town, but idk why you need to try and open case against me and belzy as if there isn't a perfect good poe between jpic, lp, sabie, dya, and reach of even falcon if we believe he's deep wolfing and saving m!creature. reaching for me and belzy just seems weird as if there isn't other options b/c we "miscleared"... there are some who aren't cleared at all, so like?

I am considering all angles here as well. All of those names are still in the POE. But I have spent some time trying to consider a world where LP is town. And in that world, I feel like we're missing something major. In that world, the first place I look is at the two players who were very publicly cleared by a member of the mafia team in what was very clearly a staged outburst from her.

Porscha wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 11:44 pm there is no way you can say me and belzy were confirmed town before role reveal AND be wolves backed into a corner in the same thought process. I know you aren't playing like that rn frfr!!!!

This is not a thing that I said.

You and Belzy were both being treated as town reads by the majority of the thread. Not "confirmed", and probably not universal either. But if there was a towncore at that point, you two were in it.
At the same time, however, you two had clearly and obviously linked yourselves together. When I say that you were "backed into a corner", I mean that you and Belzy, if mafia, could not do anything to unlink yourselves from one another. You had clearly and blatantly shielded each other. If you are mafia and alexa is your partner, this was her attempting to provide the two of you with justification for that strong connection in the thread.

I do find it a bit hard to believe. But it is easier to believe than a world where I am mafia.

I am town, Porscha. I am not making that argument because I believe it must be right. I am making that argument because I am becoming increasingly wary that we have miscleared somebody. If this is the case, you and Belzy stand out. You were cleared by a player who has since flipped mafia in what was obviously a fabricated emotional outburst from her. I think it is worth reconsidering our reads on you at this stage of the game.

Before typing this post, I had typed out my mechanical claim. I was about to hit submit, but thought I'd keep trying to fight my way out of the POE the old fashioned way instead. I would still prefer not to expose myself to the soup at this stage, but if the game can't progress out of the assumption that I am mafia, then I fear I will need to claim sooner rather than later.

This is also why I’ve opened up to a Belzy/Porscha world. If the POE contains me then the POE is wrong.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 7:42 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 7:33 pm
Belzy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 7:29 pm Sloonei really looks awful in the 4 man lynch.

Jpic looks better. I wasn't done with the ISO before I left for work. Sloonei has to be scum. Lp and Sloonei. Period.
Nope
Compelling.

At work. No time for bigger interactions right now.

I am very town and believe that an honest assessment if my posts should reflect that.

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