The Syndicate

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Jan 18, 2020 12:58 pm I wish I had faked investigation on Tony like I was planning to. =p
But he was lynched eventually. Good job, town. And gg mafia as well.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Jan 18, 2020 1:56 am

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jan 18, 2020 1:37 am Great game, I thought that scum had a pretty clear path to victory but just as every other time i think that, Sloonei stepped in.
Leaving Sloonei alive was sort of a “meh he doesn’t suspect LC” thing

I would not have looked at you at all if not for that last second vote. As was the case last time, it took a hell of a lot of digging to figure out that you were lying to us. You played an excellent game.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 11:58 pm Let future generations of mafia players know that "I'm playing in a Magic tournament tonight" is an accurate scumtell 100% of the time.

Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:08 pm CFD Long Con?

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:01 pm I love you Tony.

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 8:43 pm This is some dense stuff and I have truly only read some of it. So I can only comment on thoughts about those parts.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 8:12 pmThe crux of my argument is that point at the end: Tony and I were the two most active players in the thread on Day 4, at least in the early portion of the phase. He claims, here and at the end of Day 4, that I was his top suspect and that this was articulated early in the day. But both as I was interacting with him in real time AND as I look back on his activity now, I do not sense that he was putting any pressure on me or that he was in any way truly skeptical about me. His vote and his claims that he challenged me on things are not supported by his activity.

Saying he challenged you on things when he didn't is not the best thing to do. Tony?

I do think that "putting pressure" on someone is more likely to manifest when that person seems to be skating by. An attempt to deepen their involvement. If the two of you were the most active players, why would you need pressure applied?

Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Jan 14, 2020 4:18 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Jan 14, 2020 3:37 pm That said, no one besides Tony has actually responded to my case against Tony.

I responded a little, and I think there are a few people voting for Tony as well. That's not a bad response.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 14, 2020 4:18 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Jan 14, 2020 4:16 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 14, 2020 4:09 pm I chimed in, and then read the past 10 or so posts?

Trying to find a good point now in effort to catch up from, but I may just ISO the remaining players.

We spent most of yesterday trying to figure out why I was still alive. Or I did, at least. And so did Tony. No one else was really talking.
I concluded that Tony is bad and he left me alive because people would be paranoid about it and try to lynch me. We ended up not lynching anybody, and then there was no kill at night. So we've had two identical phases.

I see. That would be a good angle.

I propose a TSP lynch followed by a Sloonei lynch then (of course within reason. I have alot to read still.)

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Jan 14, 2020 3:37 pm That said, no one besides Tony has actually responded to my case against Tony.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Jan 14, 2020 5:42 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Jan 14, 2020 5:40 pm

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 14, 2020 5:36 pm The point about TSP not mentioning previous suspicions on Sloonei is a bit debatable because people civs change their minds all the time, but if you add all the other points TSP looks pretty shady.

Not that I feel the need to argue the point, but it wasn't a matter of Tony changing his mind. It's a matter of him suggesting that he had a suspicion that he never expressed despite having an entire day's worth of opportunity to express it and do something about it.

I did I told my cat

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Jan 14, 2020 5:40 pm

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 14, 2020 5:36 pm The point about TSP not mentioning previous suspicions on Sloonei is a bit debatable because people civs change their minds all the time, but if you add all the other points TSP looks pretty shady.

Not that I feel the need to argue the point, but it wasn't a matter of Tony changing his mind. It's a matter of him suggesting that he had a suspicion that he never expressed despite having an entire day's worth of opportunity to express it and do something about it.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Jan 14, 2020 4:35 pm No one has suggested the theory that there's a player with a bulletproof vest in the game yet and I find that ridiculous.

Michelle wrote: ↑Tue Jan 14, 2020 3:30 pm sigh.. this looks like i have to be here at eod.. 4:27 am

if you all decided to lynch an active player and give again a pass to an inactive this is pretty hard to understand at logical level.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Jan 14, 2020 1:16 am

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Jan 14, 2020 1:14 am For what it’s worth you’re still probably light orange on the rainbow voting for you might be more reactionary than it should be in which case I should be trying to convince you more that you’re wrong. But I think you’ll eventually just come to that conclusion yourself.

Who should I vote for instead?

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Jan 14, 2020 5:52 am I switched to TSP. His reaction to my post about him being teammates with Sloonei was a scumslip.

Michelle wrote: ↑Tue Jan 14, 2020 8:37 am

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:29 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:17 pm I also notice that Mac has all the red squares and only one green one. How would you characterize your read on him, and why are there so many yellows/oranges?

Mac is an easy dunk target by nature of his relative absence so I didn't count that in his read, but a team with him takes a huge risk leaving Sloonei up for so long IF they don't intend to at least try to lynch Sloonei. That's what's so prohibitive about Mac teams. Mac Sloonei is red not because I couldn't see it but more because it's the kind of team that deserves a win if they can get it at this point. And I also can't see it it's way too clever. Michelle and Sig haven't been around to promote the kind of Lynch that a Mac scum team would need, though notably in a Mac/Michelle pairing, Epi has done most of the work. DDL never risks lynching a mostly inactive teammate on Day 2 so that's that red read. The other ones kill Sloonei and don't interact as they have.

My read on Mac individually is null lean scum. Mac as scum here wants back-to-back Sloonei/Epi lynches (assuming he's not paired with one of them), and currently it seems things might go that way and all of Mac's posts fit inside that narrative. I will make no attempts to read Mac himself, but he's mildly pinged me a few times.

The main reasons for yellows and oranges are day one votes, town presences, and a prohibitive kill strategy. Honestly at this point in the game, I probably should be able to assign more of those, but all of the lynches have been apathetic thus far. I can ascertain almost nothing from voting patterns on day 2 and 3.

Reading in Sloonei's wall something is not good in this post for me, that I didn't notice at first read.

"Michelle and Sig haven't been around to promote the kind of Lynch that a Mac scum team would need, though notably in a Mac/Michelle pairing, Epi has done most of the work"
Pairing players for the sake of pairing, and making a world of a non existent scum team is not what a townie should do. And the worlds are not exactly pointed out, they are ambiguous, and the conclusion is that Epi has done most of the work. Epi is almost inexistent in the game so where is the work?

"I can ascertain almost nothing from voting patterns on day 2 and 3"
Almost nothing is not nothing but the unfinished thought gives the impression he thinks more at the game. Why not say that almost nothing instead keeping it? Maybe because a good analisis points at him? (didn't search, it's just a supposition). Or maybe because he didn't analyze it at all?

I don't see how this post is town motivated.

thanks for autocorrect, it shows me my mistakes. A lot of...

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Jan 14, 2020 12:24 am What was your level of suspicion of me early in the day yesterday?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 11:47 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:46 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:14 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:00 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 5:49 pm @DrWilgy @Dragon D. Luffy @Michelle @sig

Am I town or mafia?

Describe your new tactic, and how it helps you win.

I believe there’s a chance I was left alive so that I could be mislynched. I think it’s possible/probable that they’d be banking on a civilian or two to push the case forward. I want to get everyone’s opinion.

So if everyone commits to calling you town because you make them then you won’t be lynched, is what you’re banking on.

Here's where you "talked about it." If this is a callout, I'm not feeling any pressure.
You also suggested in your previous "callout" that my point was "fair?" so I again am not feeling any pressure.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 11:50 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 11:44 pm I’m not gonna quote the whole thing but RE: not properly considering Mac/Sloonei: do you think I improperly tossed this away? Given your interactions I guess maybe I did but I still I don’t think it’s seriously worth consideration

This is not what I care about.

You mentioned me in conjunction with Mac in your analysis. That was the extent of your consideration of me as scum. Your response was "I talk about Sloonei being scum in the same paragraph where he says 'I assume he’s town'." I was just highlighting why that's not a satisfying point at all.
If I was your top suspect yesterday, I saw you doing very little work to A) promote that idea and B) produce any more meaningful content around it.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:06 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:00 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 12:13 pm [VOTE: Long con] aubergine

Long Con wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:59 am

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 5:05 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:15 am Epi being mafia would help to explain why so many of my reads have felt unsatisfying.

If you flip scum he's lynching himself anyway so down you go buddy

What do you mean?

What’s my alignment?

I think you're town. Did you not like my question to Macdougall?

Just wanted to ask. Why am I town?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 11:31 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 11:27 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:47 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:45 am I could be left alive so that the mafia team can scratch their heads at all the wifomy reasons that I was left alive and look good for doing it.

Stifling debate is a negative point for Sloonei but it’s fair?

1

I still don't know what you meant by this post but I think you misunderstood my intent.

It was my first expression of skepticism against you. I wasn't serious about it at the time, but it was an idea I was entertaining.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:47 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:45 am I could be left alive so that the mafia team can scratch their heads at all the wifomy reasons that I was left alive and look good for doing it.

Stifling debate is a negative point for Sloonei but it’s fair?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 7:22 pm My laptop just died as I was wrapping up a long reply post.

Tony is bad.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 3:35 pm Why am I alive?

This has been the question of the day since the start of Day 4. The question of multiple days. For some of you the answer is "because you're mafia", but that is not the correct answer. Unfortunately only I (and the actual mafia team) knows this. Fortunately, knowing it lets me look at things with unclouded eyes. In the Sloonei-Is-Town world, there are several theories:

• Mafia left me alive so that they could push a lynch against me.

I have trouble seeing this one. It's a huge gambit and I'm historically not an easy lynch. Even if successful, it leaves them highly exposed once I flip town. So that's not it. If this was the case, Epignosis would be the first person implicated. He is a calculated player when he's mafia, but this would be too bold and too reckless for an Epignosis play.

• Mafia left me alive because they don't care about the situation/aren't aware of my status as a consensus town read before Day 4.

Nah. They had clearly and intentionally picked off three out of the four players who were being bunched together as pseudo-confirmed town before leaving me, the most vocal of that bunch, alive. It was a deliberate choice to leave Sloonei as the last survivor from that group. Therefore...

• Mafia left me alive because my survival would be most likely to sow paranoia and prompt other civilians to push a lynch against me.

In this scenario the mafia team is orchestrating a context in which I will become a top suspect naturally and without them having the dirty their hands in the thread. They'll let Epignosis plunge down the rabbit hole and hope that enough people follow. Maybe they'll even stoke the flames by publicly speculating about this whole Why Is Sloonei Alive? thing, being careful not to push too hard on it and give away their intentions. By keeping the idea of it in circulation without committing to it, they ensure that it remains a topic of conversation, an idea in peoples' minds, but they can look like they're solving the game and not look like they're pushing too hard for a particular lynch. It's also an easier plan to follow if one of the members of the scum team has already established themselves as opposed to me without much reason, but that's a point for a later case.

This last point is by far the most satisfying answer to me. And the first person implicated in it is Tony.

this is backwards derived. This is “what happened -> ahh that’s clearly what mafia wanted”. And that happens to work into your argument? Why couldn’t scum just not care? What if scum benefitted from the cases you were making while you were alive?

Why Tony?

Early Day 4:

Spoiler: show

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:32 am Who doesn’t kill Sloonei:

1) Sloonei
2) Epi (but Epi doesn’t start trying to lynch Sloonei Day 4 after not killing him)
3) Sig
3) LC teamed with not Mac or maybe DDL
4) Wilgy teamed with not Mac or maybe DDL
5) Mac team trying to out-WIFOM the game

Step 2) If Sloonei is scum, is the assumption just that he can out-WIFOM the deaths of TMN without his own? Why doesn’t he just kill Sig or something and then Timmer tomorrow? Sloonei as scum eventually has to deal with the “why am I not dead”, but why cause that eventuality? I also agree with the notion that Sloonei would prefer to leave the team alive and coast with them, but he does get lynched first I think if two or three survive, but at least he’d leave up Timmer.

So 1 is unlikely I think. 2 is unlikely I think.
Maybe I’m just saying these because they confirm my previous reads. *shrug*

Tony muses over the two sides of the argument, leaving things open ended. The bottom paragraph seems like it challenges the premise of the "Sloonei is bad" argument, which gives the impression that Tony is leaning toward "Sloonei is being set up", but he fails to provide a satisfying answer to the question of who I'm being set up by. This trend will continue.

It does challenge Sloonei is bad. It does fail to provide a satisfying answer. Oh well.
It also grapples with the question that you later say I don’t grapple with.

Spoiler: show

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:39 am So let’s assume Epi assumes he can get a kill on Sloonei today.
That leaves
Me Epi Wilgy Michelle LC Sig DDL Mac
You still need two lynches, and you’ve shown your hand pretty significantly. Doesn’t seem like a safe scum strat. But you can get out of it?

I think the teams that don’t kill Sloonei arent as wide as I thought 3 minutes ago, because if you don’t commit to trying to lynch Sloonei today presumably you intend to not kill him tonight, which probably carries at least til LyLo. Why would you leave an active Sloonei around? Unless he’s totally wrong about everything.

Which would imply likely Epi scum. Which takes us back to where we started.

Here he begins to reveal his plan a little bit. Sloonei needs to be taken care of soon if you are mafia. But if you go straight for the throat you stand out afterwards, so you need to make sure you're not too close to the button while still making sure it gets pushed.

Ahh perry the platypus you have fallen into my trap now let me tell you my secret plan or something.

Spoiler: show

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:46 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:41 am

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:39 am So let’s assume Epi assumes he can get a kill on Sloonei today.
That leaves
Me Epi Wilgy Michelle LC Sig DDL Mac
You still need two lynches, and you’ve shown your hand pretty significantly. Doesn’t seem like a safe scum strat. But you can get out of it?

I think the teams that don’t kill Sloonei arent as wide as I thought 3 minutes ago, because if you don’t commit to trying to lynch Sloonei today presumably you intend to not kill him tonight, which probably carries at least til LyLo. Why would you leave an active Sloonei around? Unless he’s totally wrong about everything.

Which would imply likely Epi scum. Which takes us back to where we started.

What if I’m mafia?

If you’re scum you probably only kill the three if you have strong town control anyways, or if you’re with Sig. (Sloonei/Sig is actually a reasonable pairing here I think, but my guess is that has even more incentive to leave Timmer alive just as a voting bloc improvement.) But I think if you feel comfortable with your position Timmer is a reasonable night kill in any case, you can WIFOM your way out of any fingers pointed your way.

Tony expresses this theory about a world where I am mafia. But as I think back on the way Day 4 felt, I never got the sense that Tony was paranoid about me. A civilian who is so deeply wrapped up in the problem of Sloonei Being Alive at this stage is, I would think, probably going to be prone to bouts of paranoia and rapid mind-changes. Tony was calm and collected for 48 hours. Other words I could use: clinical and cold. This was a calculated phony theory.
this is contrary to all of the posts I’m quoted in not particularly here

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:12 pm Vote: Epi

Epi was integral to the Dom lynch and at least voted for Nova. The “Epi isn’t doing anything” narrative misses that Epi has had just as much direction as almost anyone else.

A vote for Epi, but not because he's the most aggressive Sloonei opponent.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:22 pm What does scum do if Epi and Sloonei aren’t scum?

Tony asks this question. I answered that they "let us fight" and he followed by asking if they'd "sit back", but I think the answer to that question is "No." If they want me lynched, they're going to meddle. They're just not going to be obvious about it.

Spoiler: show

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:29 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:17 pm I also notice that Mac has all the red squares and only one green one. How would you characterize your read on him, and why are there so many yellows/oranges?

Mac is an easy dunk target by nature of his relative absence so I didn't count that in his read, but a team with him takes a huge risk leaving Sloonei up for so long IF they don't intend to at least try to lynch Sloonei. That's what's so prohibitive about Mac teams. Mac Sloonei is red not because I couldn't see it but more because it's the kind of team that deserves a win if they can get it at this point. And I also can't see it it's way too clever. Michelle and Sig haven't been around to promote the kind of Lynch that a Mac scum team would need, though notably in a Mac/Michelle pairing, Epi has done most of the work. DDL never risks lynching a mostly inactive teammate on Day 2 so that's that red read. The other ones kill Sloonei and don't interact as they have.

My read on Mac individually is null lean scum. Mac as scum here wants back-to-back Sloonei/Epi lynches (assuming he's not paired with one of them), and currently it seems things might go that way and all of Mac's posts fit inside that narrative. I will make no attempts to read Mac himself, but he's mildly pinged me a few times.

The main reasons for yellows and oranges are day one votes, town presences, and a prohibitive kill strategy. Honestly at this point in the game, I probably should be able to assign more of those, but all of the lynches have been apathetic thus far. I can ascertain almost nothing from voting patterns on day 2 and 3.

Here is where I began to feel ill at ease about Tony, but I didn't identify it as such right away. So much of Tony's "teammate pairing" exercise seems to hinge on me being town. That entire top paragraph eliminates several targets specifically because they do not align with a world where I am town. The middle paragraph also requires a Town Sloonei to be applicable, along with a Town Epignosis.

Sloonei mad he only occupies one row on the table? I guess? I talk about Sloonei being scum in the same paragraph where he says “I assume he’s town”.

When I say that Tony's attitude felt off, this is what I mean: I don't sense any uncertainty about my alignment in any of his posts. He entertains the idea that I could be scum, but every word that he says seems to be coming from a position that assumes (knows) that I am town. It's not just this post, but posts like the one that I highlighted earlier; when he does theorize about me being mafia, it comes out in a way that feels almost disinterested and does not appear to linger over his thoughts like it should if he is genuinely trying to suss out this situation.
I don’t know how to linger over thoughts in a text based game in real life I just walked around my kitchen. I don’t sit around typing out “I think Sloonei is scum in this second” and then “I think Sloonei is town”
He drops a vote on me "while he thinks" 3 hours before the deadline. This is the strongest indication so far that Tony actually considers me a suspect.

So I started all of the list of possible scum options lists with Sloonei is scum just for ... academic integrity? Panicky.

Spoiler: show

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 7:46 pm

sig wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 7:41 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 7:38 pm Vote: Sloonei while I think

Why Sloonie over DDL?

I don’t think DDL is scum, first off. The main reason to vote for him is because he’s a few steps down on some POE lists, which is weak in a game where scum is thriving on town apathy. I’d just as soon vote for Mac or Wilgy, players I “blah” read and are in the POE just as much as DDL.
Also I’m struggling to see a world where not one of Epi or Sloonei is scum and I think I’m leaning towards the latter.

Tony passes over DDL as a suspect pretty easily here. I'm unclear why, and once again have to question whether I believe his apparent lack of uncertainty here.
I’ve emphasized several points about this this game.
I also want to highlight, again, the lack of evidence to support Tony's claim that he truly finds me suspicious to this point. While he has remained actively engaged in trying to make sense of my survival, his attempts at understanding have all seemed to gravitate around a world where I am town and I never saw evidence of a genuine development in that read.
TSP makes no development in understanding how I could be town and then decided to vote for me. I don’t understand.
Tony
began by asking aloud what possible team combination would have left me alive. He ended by asking aloud what possible team combination would have left me alive.

Meanwhile, he never pursued the alternative ("Why would Sloonei put himself in this situation if he's bad?") with any tenacity.
I did that. You quoted it. The question has an answer.
Tony's posts were constructed to appear concerned, but to never arrive at a conclusion so that he could vote for me when the time came. And that's what he did. And the vote itself was the worst part of his day.

Tony's vote

As of 6:38 PM Tony's vote is on me (deadline is shortly after 9 PM). He dismisses DDL as a viable lynch without having engaged in any discussion with or about him. His stance here is that "one of Sloonei or Epi is scum." The above section tries to explain why this statement strikes me as inauthentic. As he had previously failed to articulate a meaningful suspicion of Epi, I'll register an additional point against Tony here: He has now set up a scenario wherein either Sloonei is scum, or the player who pushed most aggressively against him is scum. Remember way back at the beginning when I made the point that "going straight for the throat is too obvious"? Here is Tony demonstrating why that's the case.
I agree that saying that one of Sloonei or Epi is scum is simplistic.

At 6:51 PM:

Spoiler: show

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 7:51 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 7:42 pm I've returned.

Sorry about being away, very hectic work week. I'm going to try to catch up this evening, but will mostly skim from this day onwards to gain an immediate frame of reference.

Interested in the sloonei wagon. What's the general premise here?

Sloonei should be dead here, given most of the previously thought likely scum combos. When he wasn’t dead today and Epi voted for him early, he seemed caught off guard and then pulled some self preservation tactics which I wasn’t a fan of. In general, while he has been by far the highest poster he hasn’t seemed particularly focused to any townish end. Counter arguments: Day 1 CFD and his status as the main game driver

"Sloonei should be dead here." If Tony has felt this way at any point prior to this, he has not expressed it.
WE STARTED THE DAY WITH THIS
He has pursued answers to the question of my survival, but he has never firmly expressed the position that I "should be dead", even if just to put momentary pressure on me. Indeed, I never felt like he put any pressure on me.
Panicky
"When he wasn't dead today... he seemed caught off guard and then pulled some self preservation tactics which I wasn't a fan of." Where? When? Why did you not comment on any of this at the time, Tony?
I am now. I did comment on some of them. I can comment on more. I’m pretty sure I did call some out.
You were working closely with me throughout the day but you never expressed any of these concerns, and instead were focused on helping me figure out which pair of scum players could have possibly left me alive. I absolutely cannot believe that this sentence was typed by a civilian TonyStarkPrime after the interactions I had with him earlier in the phase.
I was too nice is what this whole thing boils down to. I worked “closely with you” because you were the only player around for most of the day.

If any single post in here stands out as the basis for a case against Tony, it is this one. Even if you are reading all of this (and I commend you for that, brave soldier) and you don't agree with me in general, I urge you to take this post, #1473, and try to find validation for it in Tony's previous posts about me on Day 4.

Spoiler: show

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:48 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:42 pm I’ll stress this point again: if I am mafia there is no way that I am picking off my “ninja turtle” companions one by one immediately after we’ve all been lumped together. That is the same as putting a big glowing “Lynch Me” sign on above my head. There is no reality in which I’d pursue that as a strategy.

Counter point: you assume this no matter what, there’s no reason for you to come into suspicion just as the ninja turtles die, you don’t expect that outcome.
Furthermore, you lose endgames with the ninja turtles so you know you have to take them out and figure you’ll be fine if you don’t die fourth.
It’s actually weird that we didn’t wait another day for this conversation why are we having it now instead of either day 3 or day 5 this is weird

Where were these counterpoints earlier in the day? Now that the deadline is approaching, Tony is twisting the knife.

Why didn’t he write this case refuting why I was town EARLIER is certainly a take if you think I want you to get lynched from the get go, which is your premise of me being scum


At 8:51, when I've been the top lynch candidate throughout the day, Tony makes this post. I think someone wanted me dead. What does this even mean?

At 8:55 Tony votes for Epi. He tempers it with this:

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:57 pm Epi is playing a pretty aggressive gambit if he’s scum though

Yes, I agree. It is once again unlikely that scum would be that aggressive. They'd take the more measured route.

At 8:59 he reinforces his skepticism of me. I'm still wondering where this skepticism was in hours 1-45 of the day phase.

At 9:01 he denounces DDL's lynch again because the wagon "just appeared", as if he did not just spend the entire day focused on the scenarios wherein this entire day phase is calculated plan to mislynch me.
Yours developed, DDL’s was like 4 back to back posts. You know that.

At exactly 9:07 (phase end time), Tony sees that "DDL voted Sloonei," so he'll also "vote Sloonei to avoid the no lynch." There is more than one thing wrong with this. Let's start with the point that's right on the face of this post: Tony defers his agency in this vote to two things: DDL's vote came first, and he wants to avoid a tie/no lynch. Tony has expressed a firm suspicion against me for the last hour+. He has spent most of the day talking about me. And yet when it comes down to the last moment when he needs to decide to lynch me (as if there ever was a choice), he does so not because I am the right person to be lynched, but because DDL did it first, and he doesn't want there to be a tie. Yuck. Own your vote.
Second: The timing of this vote. Tony and I were both voting for Epi for a little while towards the end of the day (Tony's vote at 8:55, mine at 8:25). He cast a silent (and bizarre) vote for Michelle somewhere in the last minute or two, and then at near the very last moment, he switched his vote back to me to put me up in the poll by a count of 4-3. I was wary of something like this happening, so I'd stopped posting and was only keeping an eye on the poll, so I was able to get my preservation vote onto DDL in time just before the thread locked. The timing felt shady, and that is what got me looking at Tony initially. My immediate impression was that he slipped this vote in at the last moment hoping that I would not have time to retaliate. He gets his Sloonei lynch and he doesn't look too nefarious for doing it. He did not spend the day pushing for the case, but had come around to it towards the end. His vote was cast, not because Sloonei was definitely bad, but because we otherwise would have had a No Lynch, and a No Lynch is bad.

Also a take. This is just wrong. Or at least hinging on the vote is wrong. The rest of the argument is “TSP set things up to hinge on the vote”. Sloonei also presumably would have voted for DDL, his supposed main scum read if it were 3-3 so all of this is moot. He was watching the poll to watch for DDL, not a surprise lynch attempt.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 3:37 pm A bonus point about Tony's treatment of Epi yesterday.

At one point, Tony says this:

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 7:46 pm Also I’m struggling to see a world where not one of Epi or Sloonei is scum and I think I’m leaning towards the latter.

The implication is that Epignosis is a viable suspect because he has pushed the case against me that day.

At another point, Tony says this:

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 2:21 pm

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:35 am

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:12 pm Vote: Epi

Epi was integral to the Dom lynch and at least voted for Nova. The “Epi isn’t doing anything” narrative misses that Epi has had just as much direction as almost anyone else.

I hate this logic. Being in town lynches correlates very little with actually being scum.

That said, this fact is giving me pause about jumping on the Sloonei wagon, because it would be the third consecutive time I followed an Epi case. If Epi is bad he's playing me 3 times. But I'm itching to break Sloonei just to see what's inside.

The logic isn’t that Epi is bad because he’s part of the lynches, the argument is he’s bad because a narrative emerged that he wasn’t doing anything, when he has been.

This is a different basis for suspicion. This avoids accusing Epi via his link to the case against me, but instead it accuses him because of a contrary narrative (one which I started, for the record) that he was playing a passive game. The contradiction is not direct, but I want to note that on the one hand, Tony seemed to be suggesting that "Epi vs. Sloonei" was a thing to be wary of, but when it came time to justify his vote for Epi, this apparently does not factor in, and attention is given to something else entirely. And that "something else" doesn't hold much water anyway.

I've also got things to say about Tony earlier in the game, but Day 4 is the crux of my case so I wanted to focus on that first and foremost.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 12:26 pm And before anyone asks I know there could be more than 3 mafia total but in this setup it's very unlikely and probably too scumsided.