The Syndicate

i am just going to accept that some people play the game differently from me and this is acceptable as long as they come to the correct conclusion or outcome in the end

i don't really want to argue about it and you can do what you like, i don't own your vote

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Jul 11, 2020 10:22 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sat Jul 11, 2020 10:17 pm Hally do you understand the reasons I have for voting pawn over wilgy?

yes? im the one who scum cased pawn

but having multiple wagons at EoD is better than one giant wagon

i use my vote as an information gathering tool

none of this seems relevant in the context but again idc as long as you do the right thing

you know what, I don't care

just make sure to consolidate on pawn by the eod

i have faith in you

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Jul 11, 2020 10:18 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sat Jul 11, 2020 10:02 pm @Spacedaisy @Epignosis @Hally @Wisp

Stop voting someone who's going to be modkilled and actually use the town KP to sort

what makes you think i have any intention of staying?

Why vote if you aren't going to stay?

Hally do you understand the reasons I have for voting pawn over wilgy?

Wisp wrote: ↑Sat Jul 11, 2020 10:08 pm[VOTE: Pawn] aubergine

thanks

Nobody is asking you to blindly sheep Jay, there are actual compelling logical reasons as to why Wilgy is not a good execute compared to Pawn

No fucking way you townread Pawn so strongly off that post you'd rather execute a dead player than flip Pawn

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sat Jul 11, 2020 10:03 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Jul 11, 2020 9:59 pm Wilgy could be modkilled. He could be replaced. He may not even send a night action.

Kill Pawn.

No.

Why?

[mention]Spacedaisy[/mention] [mention]Epignosis[/mention] [mention]Hally[/mention] [mention]Wisp[/mention]

Stop voting someone who's going to be modkilled and actually use the town KP to sort

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Sat Jul 11, 2020 9:57 pm Oy actually... Hally, Wisp and LC have all voted elsewhere.... and I trust them the most atm.

I’m not ready to vote Jay at this point.

I’m going to follow Hally and Wisp instead.

[VOTE: Wilgy] aubergine

It is game theoretically incorrect to vote Wilgy; he is extremely likely to be modkilled anyway.

Please redirect your vote to Pawn.

will tsp and lc get off their ridiculous vanity wagon? If JJJ is a wolf, today is not the day he dies.

similarly, please do not waste votes on a player who might well be modkilled and flipped for us...

and please, no chaos for the sake of chaos

I specifically asked for a consolidation on Pawn and provided reasoning why Wilgy is a bad flip (he's either gonna get modkilled or subbed)

I don't have the time and attention to monitor this EoD closely. Make good choices.

at this stage in the game I am not going to believe any late miller claims. anyone who hasn't claimed miller yet will be assumed to not be a miller and any red checks on them by SD will be treated as legitimate

prioritize investigating those without miller claims. that way SD can get a useful check on them too and then the redirector can't target both wisp and SD so we're bound to get something useful

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Jul 11, 2020 5:10 pm yeah but like

right now, with the claims on the table and the info we have

the optimal use of my role is to verify cop checks

yeah i agree and I think you should target whoever wisp targeted just to make sure it's not a misdirect

also which people in our POE have claimed miller and which haven't?

voyeurs are surprisingly useful with a bit of creativity. by combining your night results with people's behavior in thread, you can often identify who is the investigative or protective, and also figure out their results (for the investigative), all without them having to expose themselves in the thread

you can also do stuff like fakeclaim tracker and tell X player that you followed them to the person killed at night, then when they claim that they were investigating them or doing something else harmless, you reclaim voyeur and reveal that the only action they were targeted with was a killing role

lots of fun stuff if you think out of the box a little

TSP I can't tell what the hell you've been saying for the past few posts, please try to explain yourself a bit more

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jul 11, 2020 4:53 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sat Jul 11, 2020 4:12 pm [VOTE: pawn lelouch] aubergine

town colin has no reason to oppose a lelouch execute there btw. i think they are buddies now

arbitrary

???

I like open nights because it means I'm never stuck waiting around for the night to end when I'm a VT or whatever

EoD is in 6 hours, yes? I won't be around. Please try to make it more orderly than the last one.

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Jul 11, 2020 4:24 pm maybeeee

this is not a normal game though, expect the unexpected, etc

jack literally said in the op not everything he tells us is necessarily true

I don't believe in eating our own tail in an attempt to play WIFOM against the host.

If you are paranoid about rolecop-Godfather deepwolfing in the town core, catch them at F3. Before then, focus on catching their buddies.

To be clear I believe that it is correct for us to treat all of Wisp's investigation results as correct until we have hard evidence that they are wrong (eg. everyone in the game has been checked green by Wisp but the game has not ended), or until very late in the game where we have to make endgame decisions. Until then I will not accept attempts to cast doubt on players who have been rolecop checked green in a game where our strong confirmed-town core is our best asset

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Jul 11, 2020 4:20 pm i mean, that makes sense

having a town role that can peek at the true role card of anyone kinda like... defeats the point of giving wolves fake role cards in the first place

idk man. i trust wisps result on lc though

I don't think it defeats the point. Fake role cards exist to stop mass claiming, not to protect from cops

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Sat Jul 11, 2020 4:14 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Jul 11, 2020 4:11 pm

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Sat Jul 11, 2020 4:10 pm So the rules say there are fake claims given to anti-town players. How do we imagine Wisp's role interacts with those?

we dont know, thats what we’re talking about now

I have to imagine there's a good chance that Wisp sees the fake-claim. Otherwise, it's a pretty damn powerful role.

your attempt to shift LC out of the lock town pool has been denied

[VOTE: pawn lelouch] aubergine

town colin has no reason to oppose a lelouch execute there btw. i think they are buddies now

official request to consolidate votes onto pawn lelouch

Alison wrote: ↑Sat Jul 11, 2020 4:01 pm imo the % of a role that can fool wisp in this game is roughly the same as the % of a godfather in any game with a cop

which is to say, existent but not something to rly worry about

imo the % of a role that can fool wisp in this game is roughly the same as the % of a godfather in any game with a cop

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Jul 11, 2020 3:50 pm ftr, im somewhat worried that wisp’s role may give him fake roles as a result instead of a real role card for at least some of the wolves

his role seems too powerful on its face for it to not be nerfed in some way. wolves have to have a way to counter that

I don't think role cops are so OP that we should presume the existence of a godfather that can fool a role cop just because a role cop exists. if JJJ's claim is truthful (which I think it is), then we also have the existence of town roles that are strictly negative and only exist to sabotage us, which would also go some way to compensate for the existence of role cops.

I don't think it's impossible for a wolf that can fool wisp to exist, but I don't think that we should assume it does just because wisp's role is powerful

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Jul 11, 2020 3:48 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Jul 11, 2020 3:35 pm did epi and sprit have anything that looked non-paired either with each other, with colin, with wilgy or with fg?

to answer my own question partially

fg/epi were clearly not aligned

so if we are living in a w!epi world, we can safely assume fg was not a wolf

I've played a decent amount of flipless setups and I think in a flipless setup you should always assume that all dead players are town barring really strong evidence they are not (eg. cop check). This is because:

- in a vacuum the average dead player is more likely to be town than scum

- you will never underestimate the number of scum members when it comes to calculating how far you are from LyLo

- in order to maximize safety in a game where you are deprived of information, you should act as though the worst case scenario has happened. this means that you will be playing at a maximum caution level when it comes to thinking what plays you are going to make (sort of an extension of point 2)

Although this is not a flipless game, I think these arguments all broadly apply to FG's case. so I think we should treat FG as town for now

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Sat Jul 11, 2020 3:46 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sat Jul 11, 2020 3:45 pm

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Sat Jul 11, 2020 3:44 pm I’m a miller, so investigating me is useless.

good excuse

luckily we have a role that isn't fooled by millers.

We do?

yup! wisp's role allows them to obtain the actual rolecard of the target, not simply a guilty/innocent result. not only is this claimed, but hally's voyeur role (see what actions are performed on a target) has confirmed that wisp can indeed do this.

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Sat Jul 11, 2020 3:44 pm I’m a miller, so investigating me is useless.

good excuse

luckily we have a role that isn't fooled by millers.

sabie12 wrote: ↑Sat Jul 11, 2020 3:42 pm No more like when he asked how you would know his playstyle I was going to be like maybe because you guys talked in the wolf chat.

i derived my assumption from game theory, not from knowing his playstyle. I was wrong about his playstyle anyway (confirmed by JJJ) so it is definitely not the case that colin shared his playstyle with me in the wolf chat

I'm down with a pawn flip if it gives us information about epi's alignment

(epi, I am sure you will come down and say that I am town who is trying to orchestrate your execution after pawn flips red. if you believe this then you should still help me execute my scum buddy if you are town)

if pawn flips green:

- investigate epi. a green flip from pawn gives us no info about epi's alignment, and he's the one in the POE I want to be cleared through investigations rather than death the most. this is because I think he can provide the most value to town if he is confirmed to be town out of all the viable investigation targets.

- vig anyone else in the POE that isn't Epi, I can't think of a compelling reason to choose one over the other. use your discretion

if pawn flips red:

- we are probably going to execute epi tomorrow. don't bother investigating him. vig can use discretion if they want to shoot epi or not.

- investigate colin or wilgy and announce who you are investigating so vig doesn't go on them

sabie12 wrote: ↑Sat Jul 11, 2020 3:33 pm

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Sat Jul 11, 2020 3:25 pm I gotta say part of me keeps imagining sabie and Kitsu in scumchat looking at our grand unified POE and laughing evilly. I don’t have them in the green yet

Funny I was thinking the same thing about you and alison

?

you think colin and me are laughing in the wolf chat about the POE?

if we are both wolves we would not be happy about this POE

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Sat Jul 11, 2020 3:31 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sat Jul 11, 2020 3:28 pm

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Sat Jul 11, 2020 3:25 pm I gotta say part of me keeps imagining sabie and Kitsu in scumchat looking at our grand unified POE and laughing evilly. I don’t have them in the green yet

sucks to be poe clamped and have to think of a way to widen it, doesnt it?

I just keep imagining a world where I get lynched and the thread goes “Oh, shit, what now?!” And then the town loses.

Actually, I don’t have to imagine it, because it’s exactly what happened in the last game I played here.

If you flip town I am just proceeding with the POE. If you are town, the information from your flip will be used to expose the rest of the mafia by process of elimination. So you should not worry

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Jul 11, 2020 3:27 pm i was incidentally just about to ask

is epi a busser? or does he prefer to keep his team alive if at all possible?

more specifically, is this how w!epi would play in this game state with colin and pawn as teammates knowing they’re surely not going to last?

because its certainly not what i would do, but im not epi

i think he has to

if he busses them they die anyway & nobody will give him cred for pushing universal scumreads

if he defends them eloquently enough maybe they live. or maybe we wifom ourselves into thinking he wouldnt hard defend an outed buddy like that and clear him.

If he is wolf with those, its his only chance to win.

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Sat Jul 11, 2020 3:25 pm I gotta say part of me keeps imagining sabie and Kitsu in scumchat looking at our grand unified POE and laughing evilly. I don’t have them in the green yet

sucks to be poe clamped and have to think of a way to widen it, doesnt it?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Jul 11, 2020 3:19 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Jul 11, 2020 3:08 pm i mean like, regardless of who is a wolf in pawn/wilgy/colin/epi/tony/alison theyre kinda like poe clamped no matter what?

i mean, we have four lock clears. we have sabie, kitsu and jay as consensus town reads. so like, provided all that is correct there uh

arent really many places for the wolves in those six to go without running into a teammate

this kind of game state is hell to wolf in because the poe is so solid

That's the dream, Hally. That's the dream.

wrong

the dream is that the team is exactly pawn, colin and epi and we execute them consecutively and i get vindicated and then we all get a socky nom for best town play

I believe you when you say you would defend your wolf buddy in that position. I think 95% of wolves in your position would not have the cojones to do that which is why I assumed you would not. I think it is a move that can turn the game around if you can pull it off and I really appreciate that kind of fearless attitude as scum

colin, one day I hope to roll scum with you and just open wolf and massacre town without a single thought for subtlety

I really appreciate the way you think about scum play regardless of your alignment

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Sat Jul 11, 2020 3:06 pm How would you have any idea what kind of player I am? Where are you deriving such information?

I was modelling your behavior by assuming you adhered to basic game theory. In this situation if you and Pawn are scum, at least one of you is 100% going to flip scum, and the best result is to try to get the other to survive. This means you need to gain towncred by bussing, unless you are engaging in a WIFOM play.

im very confused: why is "if epi is scum he's probably scum with pawn/colin/wilgy" somehow an argument against epi being scum when we think those players are scum anyway?

Like hally you wonder why epi "boxes himself in" here but if he is in fact scum with his scum teammates in the POE what choice does he have? If he lets them flip, nobody here is dumb enough to award him a gold medal for suspecting the universal suspects and it just makes us even more happy to continue gunning down the POE. His only real option as scum there is to open wolf, hard defend his teammates and try to get whoever is in the POE and isnt on his team killed. This would be compatible with his open, straightforward but illogical defense of pawn and colin as well.

I think there is a pretty decent chance the team is just pawn/colin/epi. Wouldnt bet my life on it but it seems like a likely possibility to me.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Jul 11, 2020 3:01 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sat Jul 11, 2020 3:00 pm wait is JJJ scumreading epi now?

I am Expressing Concerns™.

very good

let the hate flow through you and strike him down where he stands

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Jul 11, 2020 3:00 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sat Jul 11, 2020 2:58 pm I feel like in a POE clamp the most obvious move is to violently attack your partner in the vain hopes of scraping out of the POE tomorrow with your partner's sacrifice (or letting them scrape if you flip)

This kind of shit earns you 0 towncred when your partner flips. Do you think Colin is the type of player to go for some next level WIFOM game knowing I'd react like this to him saying that? I don't.

I don't think Colin is the sort to violently attack another player under any circumstances regardless of what may be optimal. I don't know if I have ever seen him do that regardless of alignment.

huh

just goes to show that there really are all types of people in this world

I guess i retract my point then

wait is JJJ scumreading epi now?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Jul 11, 2020 2:56 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sat Jul 11, 2020 2:55 pm

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Sat Jul 11, 2020 2:52 pm This is a good ISO.

is this a post wolf colin makes about his scumbuddy when both their lives are in deadly peril?

i dont think so

Eh. If they're both POE-clamped, generic distancing might feel like the only move.

I feel like in a POE clamp the most obvious move is to violently attack your partner in the vain hopes of scraping out of the POE tomorrow with your partner's sacrifice (or letting them scrape if you flip)

This kind of shit earns you 0 towncred when your partner flips. Do you think Colin is the type of player to go for some next level WIFOM game knowing I'd react like this to him saying that? I don't.

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Sat Jul 11, 2020 2:54 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sat Jul 11, 2020 2:26 pm My top suspect is Colin because I find it impossible to understand why he would tell JJJ "if you're scum I'm never finding you" on D2

Sounds like a lazy excuse to get out of a TMI accusation rather than a genuine belief in JJJ's ironclad uncatchability as scum

I thought you like, just said that that wasn’t the main reason to lynch me? But now it is?

it is the top reason why you are the scummiest person in the poe for me

but others would suspect you if you hadnt made the post and you would still be in my poe if not for this post