The Syndicate

fingersplints' ISO:

Nate has identified #1325 as a particularly sketchy post, because it shifts responsibility for the falcon exe onto Mac, and also hedges her own stance on falcon. I tend to agree with Nate here, and think it's a bad look for fingersplints.

I didn't like #1363 either. She says that she's contemplating where we should vote if we misexe on D1, but there's no followup, and I don't see her talking about the results of this contemplation later on, even where it is appropriate and natural to do so (eg. in #1458 where she is talking about how she wouldn't mind a falcon flip as it would give lots of interactives to figure out where to vote next). Alarmingly, she also does not bring up the results of this contemplation when we do end up missing D1. This suggests that she was just saying it to look like she was solving without actually putting in real analysis or thought into where we should go if our D1 flips green.

I didn't like #2012 either because it looks like her taking a cheap shot at Boquise's attempts to read into Mac's legacy. I'm generally pretty skeptical of discrediting a strong townie's legacy completely or brushing off nightkills as "who knows?" without at least trying to read into them.

She then proceeds to claim that she thought Boquise was treated as null by the rest of the thread, when in my view he was clearly being treated as consensus town. This might be a good sign for her, because it suggests that she is distinctly uninformed: I think she would likely know how the thread is treating Boquise more accurately if she was in scum chat and had partners to catch her up.

In #2128, she says she's interested in taking a closer look at Creature, but then doesn't mention Creature again. Votes for Dizzy instead in #2133 - which is a reasonable vote, but her interest in Creature seems to have mysteriously vanished.

-

Overall, I'd say that I came out of fingersplints' ISO with a markedly worse impression of her before. I broadly agree with Nate's claim that her vote on falcon was hedgy and accountability-dodging, and I'd add that at two separate points in the game she indicates she'll look into something and then never brings it up or mentions it again, even when it would be very natural to do so.

Based off this, I'd be happy to back a fingersplints wagon, and have her in my bottom POE.

NateTheLesser wrote: ↑Fri Jul 01, 2022 12:42 am They're in about that order, from most suspicion to least. What I'm looking for in the Falcon votes is people who helped it along but in such a way that they wouldn't look responsible, and both Finger and Creature fit that. Finger was using Mac's god read as cover but also said she had (unspecified) concerns of her own there. And I think the "but I've been wrong about him before" framing gives her a way to backtrack if things go a different direction. I need to look back at Creature's actual reasoning, but their vote(s) were also in the context of being self pres, so the purpose wasn't only to push Falcon. Dizzy I'm null on, I hope they have more time as the game goes on. They're disconnected but their votes haven't just been vanity wagons. Ender I would have put as more sus than Dizzy until this:

Do you have any thoughts on the way Dizzy has played D2? Why is it significant or townie that Dizzy's posts aren't just on vanity wagons, since disconnected players are likely to just vote on the popular wagons in general? And, what about that post of Ender's struck you as particularly authentic, such that you got the impression of the mask slipping when you read it?

Out for lunch. Be back with a fingersplints iso after.

EnderWiggin wrote: ↑Fri Jul 01, 2022 12:22 am
Alison wrote: ↑Fri Jul 01, 2022 12:18 am
EnderWiggin wrote: ↑Fri Jul 01, 2022 12:16 am [VOTE: NateTheLesser] aubergine

Honestly don't feel like you care about the current gamestate, why's that?
I thought the same thing (see above).

What's your take on Creature?
I saw that lmao.

My take on Creature is that his whole "Find a different wagon than Falcon when he was second wagon" feels town, and this feels more like his lazy towngame.

Do you think he should be scumread for his D1?

I think I agree with you that his EOD was good with respect to that. Other than that, I did not feel his D1 was particularly impressive, but I liked his D2, because I think a scum Creature would find it very psychologically easy to do nothing on D2 after setting up with "the game is doomed, we're all fucked, we're repeating the mistakes of Champs town". Instead, he's at least attempted to contribute despite that overall sentiment, which I think is more likely to come from town who wants to perservere in the face of adversity rather than mafia who is happy to wallow in town demotivation. #2143 also strikes me as authentic, because I think if he was just throwing out an "X is unnoticeable, kinda sus" read as mafia he'd be more likely to do it on Nate and not two members of the D1 towncore.

EnderWiggin wrote: ↑Fri Jul 01, 2022 12:25 am
Alison wrote: ↑Fri Jul 01, 2022 12:23 am
EnderWiggin wrote: ↑Fri Jul 01, 2022 12:18 am
Alison wrote: ↑Fri Jul 01, 2022 12:17 am My POE as of right now is Dizzy/Ender and then Nate. fingersplints read TBD. Creature has trended up this day phase and has an endorsement from Mac so I'm ok with him for now.
You care about Mac's endorsements but don't see any consideration of his claim he would tunnel Marmot?
It factors into my evaluation of Marmot. His legacy is not the be all and end all of my thought process, but that claim has led me to put Marmot lower than I would have if not for his legacy. Absent Mac's message, I would probably have Marmot as a townread, and now he's more like, floating just above the POE.

When it comes to Creature, Mac's views and mine trend in the same direction so it's a much easier call to make. I try to strike a balance between respecting his thoughts and having agency and ideas of my own.
Was more a statement that you kept bringing it up to "add" to reads you were making but didn't see any comments about Marmot.

Generally when it comes to players that I vibe with like Mac and who I think (or know, in this case) are town, my approach is to try to find the Venn diagram of our reads and work in the overlap. My day 1 play was pretty much just finding the overlap between me/Mac/JJJ's scumreads and voting in that. He had a positive impression of Creature, which matches with my feeling he has trended up D2, and this is an overlap I am happy to go with. We don't agree on Marmot, evidently, which is why I don't just straight sheep his reads.

Seanzie wrote: ↑Fri Jul 01, 2022 12:20 am
Alison wrote: ↑Fri Jul 01, 2022 12:11 am I want to review fingersplints after lunch, I've had a few good feelings about her but those are way too nebulous to exempt her from scrutiny entirely.

Lucy/Seanzie/Marmot was a thing that happened. I'm not sure what to think of it; I wasn't a fan of Lucy kinda flailing in response to a relatively pedastrian inquisition of her thought process. Not enough of an anti-fan to exe her today over people like Dizzy or Ender, especially with Mac's legacy having her as locktown.
I'd like to hear your thoughts on Marmot.

I townread him D1 (see my D1 legacy post for details). I have been indifferent to most of his content D2, with the exception of a couple of townie moments: specifically, I think the observation that Wilgy has had a focus on Ender this day phase was one that's more likely to come from a townie scrutinizing the game in solving mode, and I think his reversal on the Wilgy read felt authentic. His questioning of JJJ's Mac-reads-project in #2028 and #2029 felt like townie paranoia as well.

I had a good impression of him D1 and it's improved on D2. As mentioned in my reply to Ender, I'm not fully clearing him yet, respecting Mac's insistence that he is suspicious if falcon flips W.

EnderWiggin wrote: ↑Fri Jul 01, 2022 12:18 am
Alison wrote: ↑Fri Jul 01, 2022 12:17 am My POE as of right now is Dizzy/Ender and then Nate. fingersplints read TBD. Creature has trended up this day phase and has an endorsement from Mac so I'm ok with him for now.
You care about Mac's endorsements but don't see any consideration of his claim he would tunnel Marmot?

It factors into my evaluation of Marmot. His legacy is not the be all and end all of my thought process, but that claim has led me to put Marmot lower than I would have if not for his legacy. Absent Mac's message, I would probably have Marmot as a townread, and now he's more like, floating just above the POE.

When it comes to Creature, Mac's views and mine trend in the same direction so it's a much easier call to make. I try to strike a balance between respecting his thoughts and having agency and ideas of my own.

EnderWiggin wrote: ↑Fri Jul 01, 2022 12:16 am [VOTE: NateTheLesser] aubergine

Honestly don't feel like you care about the current gamestate, why's that?

I thought the same thing (see above).

What's your take on Creature?

My POE as of right now is Dizzy/Ender and then Nate. fingersplints read TBD. Creature has trended up this day phase and has an endorsement from Mac so I'm ok with him for now.

I think one thing that bothers me about Nate is that it doesn't feel like he has any reads he's passionate about. I don't know if this is just a playstyle thing but it's what drove me to quiz him about his reads in more detail. I'm uncomfortable by the fact that his stance seems to be repeating the most uncontroversial/popular reads and then chilling and not making a massive effort to push them. I could see this coming from a townie who feels we've got the game in the bag, and I've been in that position a couple of times myself, but those were when I had big confidence in my reads and the wolves were getting crushed. This gamestate started off with a misexe and then some pretty tense/controversial interactions between players, so it doesn't feel wholly appropriate for Nate to just be sitting back and going "yep, I guess we'll just auto the guys in the middle of falcon's wagon".

I want to review fingersplints after lunch, I've had a few good feelings about her but those are way too nebulous to exempt her from scrutiny entirely.

Lucy/Seanzie/Marmot was a thing that happened. I'm not sure what to think of it; I wasn't a fan of Lucy kinda flailing in response to a relatively pedastrian inquisition of her thought process. Not enough of an anti-fan to exe her today over people like Dizzy or Ender, especially with Mac's legacy having her as locktown.

NateTheLesser wrote: ↑Thu Jun 30, 2022 11:48 pm
Alison wrote: ↑Thu Jun 30, 2022 4:38 pm @NateTheLesser I would like to hear some personal opinions from you, rather than simply reiterating data from the game like a human Modbot. What reads do you feel most strongly about? What do you think of the JJJ/Seanzie argument?
Well, I think JJJ/Sean can be added to the "not w/w" chart, for starters. I think they were talking past each other in that argument. I still trust JJJ, partly because wolves in general want to keep the POE as open as possible and looking at interactions like he's doing is a way of narrowing it. None of it is "clearing", and JJJ isn't claiming that it is, it's just a way to help focus our attention. The other two that were in my top 4 yesterday were Boq and Lucy who I still feel mostly good about, though they've both dropped off a bit today so there hasn't been as much to go on. I'm more interested in the middle Falcon voters today (Fingersplints/Creature/Dizzy/Ender), less interested in the late voters (you and Lucy jumped on near EOD when I wouldn't expect wolves to pile on a runaway town flip). I was also feeling good about Marmot going into today, mainly because I thought their reasoning for sussing Ender near EOD was a good thread to pull, and game state wise I wouldn't expect a wolf to start a late wagon when they could just coast to the misyeet that was already in progress. So the sus going their way today has me wondering if I'm missing something.

How would you rank finger/creature/dizzy/ender in order of suspicion right now, with brief reasons if possible?

I honestly just want to get rid of those two because I think they are taking advantage of the slower game speed to openly fuck around.

I vored Dizzy because he went from just being lower activity to openly luxuriating in it and declaring himself comfortable/townie in his state of doing nothing in a way that feels like a refuge in audacity.

Ender's continued refusal to explain his reads hits the same notes for me. I am struggling to understand why they would approach the game like this if they are town.

EnderWiggin wrote: ↑Thu Jun 30, 2022 8:15 pm
Alison wrote: ↑Thu Jun 30, 2022 4:14 pm
EnderWiggin wrote: ↑Thu Jun 30, 2022 7:19 am
Alison wrote: ↑Thu Jun 30, 2022 6:30 am I'll be a little busy for the next 12 hours or so, my apologies. I have skimmed fingersplint's posts this page and been left with a generally good impression. Would like more elaboration on how Ender read Dizzy's entrance; which part of it was a towntell, etc.
If I elaborate it won't work anymore lol.
Keeping a read cryptic so you can use it in future games is dumb. You have already been extremely cagey this game; I would like you to please elaborate on the tell you used to read Dizzy.
Please wait 3-5 business days for a response.

I am sorely tempted to vote you.

[VOTE: Dizzy] aubergine

@NateTheLesser I would like to hear some personal opinions from you, rather than simply reiterating data from the game like a human Modbot. What reads do you feel most strongly about? What do you think of the JJJ/Seanzie argument?

I feel good about Seanzie after his spat with JJJ. Getting really aggressive about wording ("clear", "opportunism") is something I associate with his town play. My opinion of JJJ hasn't really shifted much; I see Seanzie's concerns that he's pushing too hastily to clear people based off a lack of negative associations, but I don't necessarily think that's scummy for him specifically. Being eager to clear people from the POE purely through interactive analysis is an attitude that I associate with town JJJ, and I thought his use of the word "opportunism" was fine. I have used it in similar ways myself. "Two townies vote a third townie early D1, mafia casually hops on to put pressure on them" is a common situation.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jun 30, 2022 12:02 pm
Seanzie wrote: ↑Thu Jun 30, 2022 11:52 am Not gonna lie, while I don't want to discourage anyone from doing analysis, I am kind of wary of your conclusions. You seem to be spending only a minute or two per pairing
There is, quite simply, no human alive that can do this stuff as fast as I can. Sometimes a couple of minutes is all it takes to search the key posts and interpret them.

Seanzie wrote: ↑Thu Jun 30, 2022 11:52 amand the reasons you're stating to anti-team people are extremely weak IMO. While this would be fine to help develop reads and worldbuild, the idea that you're suggesting a solid clear of a PoE based on anti-teams shoots up huge red flags in my mind. No, just no. Those "dissassociations" you've pointed out are NOT remotely strong enough to clear someone based off associations alone. Just no. That is bad.
Use a word softer than "clear" if you prefer. Everything will be, as ever before, subject to continuous evaluation and reevaluation. We need a starting point, however, and that is what I am building. The single most valuable application of this task, in my view given my numerous past experiences employing it, is the capacity to remove players from the immediate POE pool on the basis of narrow team fits. If you don't feel DrWilgy is there, then go point out my conclusions that you would protest and protest them (or for any other pairing). I actually have managed fewer dissociated relationships so far than I would like or than I often have in other games. I am not going to pittle around and call everything null, or else we're going to get nowhere. Judgment calls must be made.

The good news is that the two of you arguing about dissociation dissociates you two.

I, too, am dissociated. Not with anyone or in a mafia sense. I've just lost touch with reality.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jun 30, 2022 10:25 am I won't share my take on Creature/Wilgy yet. This one strikes me as important, and I want others to say their piece before I do. I have two posts for you that I think can be informative. Tell me what you think, folks. Are they compatible as mafia or not?

Spoiler: show
Creature wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 8:33 am I could see it being Marmot + NaateTheLesser

Maybe DrWilgy for third

Creature wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 3:28 pm
Creature wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 3:27 pm I feel good about:

Alison
Boquise
Creature
fingersplints
JaggedJimmyJay
MacDougall

Slightly worried those are the most experienced players here though
Ok I might consider adding DrWilgy in

That looks pretty compatible to me.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jun 30, 2022 9:43 am While I dig around these interactions, here's a good way for folks to engage: either with or without looking first, are their any pairings on the current roster that strike you as particularly probable mafia teammates or otherwise concerning? Or pairings that are definitely not teammates in your eyes?

Seanzie is probably not teammates with Ender or Wilgy. Ender is probably not teammates with Dizzy

fingersplints wrote: ↑Thu Jun 30, 2022 7:58 am
Boquise wrote: ↑Thu Jun 30, 2022 7:45 am
fingersplints wrote: ↑Thu Jun 30, 2022 6:01 am Also back to this post

Boquise wrote: ↑Thu Jun 30, 2022 3:43 am
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 10:18 pm
Marmot wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 10:15 pm Sure
You are appreciated.

The last thing I was hoping to achieve is the classical night kill analysis. Many people balk at the very idea of trying this, and I think they're wrong. Wifom is wifom blah blah, but we're remiss if we don't at least take a look. Moreover, in a mountainous game, at least one of the layers of wifom does not exist -- there are no doctor dodges. So it'd behoove us to review Mac and see where he sat. What we do with that I don't know right now, but we honor his memory enough to give him a voice.

If that's something that tickles you, I'd love to see what you come up with.
I kinda expected to be the kill because I was during D1 consensus town read with no on-going conflicts with other players. Whereas Mac, also highly town read, had a thing with Wilgy that could be exploited and easier to tinfoil because of Falcon and of site history*.

*What I mean with site history is that I am an unknown variable whilst Mac is a tried gun.

This tells me that Mac's reads can have threatened the woofs tbh
Was Boquise “consensus town read”? I don’t have a read on them yet so to me this reads a lot like saying you are town to try and seem townier, but I don’t recall ever playing with Boquise or paying that much attention yet to others mentions of them
I base it off other players' read lists tbh. You didnt read those posts?
Nah I read them. I don’t remember every single mention of you though and my recollection of you was more as null over consensus town, so that’s why I’m asking others.

My recollection is that Boq is consensus town.

EnderWiggin wrote: ↑Thu Jun 30, 2022 7:19 am
Alison wrote: ↑Thu Jun 30, 2022 6:30 am I'll be a little busy for the next 12 hours or so, my apologies. I have skimmed fingersplint's posts this page and been left with a generally good impression. Would like more elaboration on how Ender read Dizzy's entrance; which part of it was a towntell, etc.
If I elaborate it won't work anymore lol.

Keeping a read cryptic so you can use it in future games is dumb. You have already been extremely cagey this game; I would like you to please elaborate on the tell you used to read Dizzy.

I'll be a little busy for the next 12 hours or so, my apologies. I have skimmed fingersplint's posts this page and been left with a generally good impression. Would like more elaboration on how Ender read Dizzy's entrance; which part of it was a towntell, etc.

I still want to hear from Rondo about his Dizzy park but am otherwise inclined to trend him up because I think wolf teams with Rondo in them are >>rand likely to kill me before Mac.

@RondoDimBuckle Why were you parked on Dizzy at EOD? Did you think that vote would go through?

G-Man wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:45 pm
RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:39 pm @G-Man do we have final vote screenshot? Or am I blind?
Yes. The Day 1 poll screenshots have been added to the OP. It just took me longer than anticipated.

Oh neat.

G-Man didn't save the final vote count which is annoying. iirc Falcon was a pretty large runaway wagon with low accountability; I'd expect mafia to either casually pile on or hide on some vanity wagon so they don't get their hands dirty. Biased more towards the former if they had a teammate in danger.

RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:35 pm At EOD in another game, Reading falcon and mac later

In the future you should refrain from referencing other games like this.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:30 pm okay

As time permits this phase I have a few analytic tools in mind that I would like to deploy. Time may not permit as much as I would like especially over the next 48 hours, so I will again call upon the field to help me out. Any nerds out there who like to dig, please drop me a line and I will explain.

I'm down.

Good night.

Creature wrote: ↑Tue Jun 28, 2022 8:56 pm
Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jun 28, 2022 8:54 pm I'm really struggling to understand how Creature goes from "falcon is probably town, and once he flips town we'll have to re-eval all our reads tomorrow because mafia is probably snowing us all under" to "eh I'm fine with it, we had to sort him at some point anyway".

@Creature To be clear what is your read on falcon? Do you think they will flip town and if so what are your reasons for townreading him?
I don't remember ever townreading falcon besides maybe thinking gamestate could point towards him being town.

I'm confused why you think someone being the consensus exe means that they are likely town. This is a pretty stacked player list - maybe the people who scumread Falcon are just good at scumhunting and got it right?

Marmot wrote: ↑Tue Jun 28, 2022 8:53 pm
Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jun 28, 2022 8:51 pm
RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Tue Jun 28, 2022 8:50 pm Sticking around in case there is a flash wagon
There should not be a flash wagon. Flash wagoning is bad. Do not do it.
In forum mafia, a flash wagon (formerly known as a “CFD”, although that term has since been deprecated due to racist connotations) is when the composition of a wagon changes dramatically during the final hours or even minutes of a day phase. When a flash wagon occurs, a player that has been at not risk at all throughout the day can be suddenly in danger of being executed, and players that seem to be the go-to execute may suddenly find themselves at zero votes. The phenomenon has been much-maligned as anti-town by players who desire stability and predictability, but these players are wrong. In this essay, I will give three reasons why flash wagons are pro-town – namely, that they create informational imbalances in favor of the town, that they can be used to garner authentic reactions from players, and that they can disrupt undesirably stagnant game states. Then, I will rebut some common but ill-informed objections to flash wagons to prove their superiority as a mafia strategy.

In a normal game of forum mafia (ie. without bastard elements or experimental changes that affect the nature of the game), the town tend to be the uninformed majority, and the mafia tend to be the informed minority. Thus, having more information is the mafia’s strength, while having more raw power is the town’s strength. The mafia do not only have more information in terms of knowing the alignments of each player, but they are also able to coordinate and scheme in mafia chat. Because town players are generally honest about their reads and intentions, this means that the mafia will have a strong idea as to how both town and mafia players will behave, allowing them to predict the outcome of the day, or gauge how certain players will vote. As a result, it is quite common to hear sentiments like “A will probably vote B, so we should leave them alive”, or “X will shield Y as long as we’re alive; if we intend to misexe Y, we should nightkill X” in mafia chat.

Flash wagons, because of their sudden, unpredictable and chaotic nature, upset the informational advantage that the mafia has. They are less able to predict the outcome of a day as long as town holds the threat of a flash wagon over them. In the fast-moving intensity of a flash wagon, a townie may well vote someone that they have listed as a townread, or vote to save someone that they previously scumread, when they would never do so in slower wagon formations. As a result, mafia find it more difficult to coordinate their actions, and find town players more unpredictable and volatile. This unpredictability strips away their informational advantage; mafia are just as lost as the next town player in terms of figuring out what’s going to happen, or what’s going on.

This frantic environment leads us to the next strength of flash wagons: they create situations where authentic reactions can be gathered from players. It is more difficult for mafia to plan out a convincing-looking reaction when they have only a few seconds, rather than minutes or hours, to craft their posts. In contrast, the genuine fluidity of townie thought shines in the hectic context of a flash wagon. Oftentimes, many slots that were generally regarded as suspicious can clear themselves as being town through their “unfakeable” reactions to a flash wagon, while mafia may expose themselves by being stilted or awkward, especially if their plan for the day phase has fallen apart.

This effect is amplified by being able to do vote-count analysis later on in the game. For instance, if a town player is the consensus wagon all day, and a mafia player is suddenly flash wagoned and goes over, then players who unhesitatingly pushed the flash wagon over, and especially the person who started it, may be cleared from that through vote-count analysis later on in the game. Conversely, even if a mafia player was on the chopping block and a town player gets flash wagoned to save them, the identities of the remaining mafia members can often be exposed by examining who appeared to be overly enthusiastic for the flash wagon.

The final advantage of flash wagons is that it allows town to shake-up an otherwise stagnant game state. Often, townies experience an eerie feeling that there is too much consensus about the person being voted out, questioning why the mafia members are so happy to let a teammate swing. (This is known as “Dead Air Dead Villager”, or DADV, and is a highly accurate tell that the town is misexecuting someone.) However, because consensus is so strong on this person, even if they suspect that the victim is town, they don’t have a way to remedy this stagnant game state.

This is where flash wagons come in. By spicing up the game with a rapidly-formed alternative wagon, you can provide the village with a strong and dynamic alternative to the consensus wagon that you no longer support. Even if your flash wagon does not target a mafia, at the very least it will shake town out of their rut and force them to seriously consider and re-evaluate the game rather than sleepwalking into a misexecution. As mafia, it is important to carefully manipulate the gamestate to lead town into complacency, infighting and other anti-town modes of thought. Similarly, it is important as town to manipulate the gamestate in your favor, and that means fighting against stagnancy and “shrug exes”, where nobody really seems to care about who goes over and just votes some random player who is bad at defending themselves.

Despite these clear benefits, certain delinquents have taken it upon themselves to publicly oppose flash wagons through ignorant reasoning. I will now rebut two of the most common objections against flash wagons.

The first objection is that flash wagons are misguided because the consensus wagon at EOD is bound to be based on a full day phase’s worth of analysis and logic, whereas the flash wagon is based on gut instinct, or a more nebulous sense that is something wrong. Critics of flash wagons sometimes claim that it is “throwing away 48 hours in exchange for 15 minutes”. This objection is wrong. Just because more time was put into coming up with a conclusion does not mean that conclusion is more likely to be correct. Another way to see it is that the mafia have had 48 hours to manipulate you throughout the day phase, but in the heat of the moment during a flash wagon, it is extremely difficult for them to do so. Thus, the “logic” that you engaged in throughout the day phase could easily be misguided, especially in the kinds of stagnant gamestates that flash wagons are most effective in, and should not be automatically considered to be more accurate than your gut instincts.

The second objection is that if a flash wagon hits a townie, it can be disastrous, as the consensus suspect from the previous day phase continues to be unresolved, and town has now lost an extra player, and another one from the nightkill, without moving the game forward or flipping their previous suspect. This, too, stems from a misguided understanding of flash wagons. As explained above, flash wagons provide a bevy of information that easily allow you to progress the game. If you can clear three people for making “unfakeable posts” during a frantic EOD, then you have gained something from the flash wagon, even if it hit a townie. Even the previous consensus suspect that was saved via the flash wagon can be cleared if town collectively realizes that they were the victim of DADV. It is a fallacy to assume that just because an unexpected person was flash wagon and killed that town will simply return to the state it was prior to the flash wagon. The development and context of the flash wagon itself will have likely changed the gamestate, and probably for the better.

I deeply regret ever making that bet with Arete. I'm going to stick to nickname bets from now on.

I'm really struggling to understand how Creature goes from "falcon is probably town, and once he flips town we'll have to re-eval all our reads tomorrow because mafia is probably snowing us all under" to "eh I'm fine with it, we had to sort him at some point anyway".

@Creature To be clear what is your read on falcon? Do you think they will flip town and if so what are your reasons for townreading him?

RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Tue Jun 28, 2022 8:50 pm Sticking around in case there is a flash wagon

There should not be a flash wagon. Flash wagoning is bad. Do not do it.

Marmot wrote: ↑Tue Jun 28, 2022 8:46 pm I like Alison's "legacy". I feel like I understand the gamestate a little better, as well as her view (which seems to mirror mine albeit with all the gaps filled in).

I don't know if townreading Wilgy is against the grain at this point, but I am.

As far as I can tell Wilgy is treated as null to scum by everyone except us two.

"We do a little trolling" is fine.

"We do nothing but trolling" is not fine.

If you want to have a more detailed convo about this in post we can. Currently, if you want me to back off my scumread of you, I'd suggest striving to have a more readable thought process so I can understand clearly who you read as what alignment, and why.

RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Tue Jun 28, 2022 8:41 pm You are always unimpressed by my play.

Lets get constructive. How can I improve? Just slamming me isnt going to produce any results

I'd start by not intentionally antagonizing players and posting random shit for the sole purpose of being a troll.

Do you actually have a strong reason to townread falcon or are you just resisting it for the sake of it?

Creature I know this doom and gloom "if we get one wrong flip the game is over gg" stuff is something you do every game but I hope you stop doing it because it's extremely unhelpful.

My legacy is as follows:

I trust JJJ, Mac, Boq, and Lucy. Do not touch these people D2 regardless of the flip. That said, JJJ and Mac should be re-evaluated around D3 or D4 if they do not produce pelts, and should always be policied if they make it to endgame after starting off the game like this.

Wilgy is my against-the-grain townread; I think there's enough townie moments in his posts that I wouldn't vote him out.

Ender, Creature, and Falcon if he survives somehow (he shouldn't if you guys play the game properly instead of being flash wagoning junkies) are my immediate POE.

Dizzy as afk town usually gets his butt kicked into gear around midgame and turns into a townie machine. I get he is playing lowkey this game which he has definitely done before but hold him accountable if he continues to do nothing. I am treating him as =rand for now.

I don't know how to read fingersplints. I am mostly just sheeping JJJ's light townlean on her.

Seanzie should be clear if one of the people he's been pushing (Wilgy or Ender especially) flips scum. He hasn't been mega town but his solving has been ~fine and he's been hitting townie notes in his sudden swings of aggression against people who make posts he doesn't like.

I am trusting Mac and Ender's reads on Rondo right now since they can read Rondo much better than me. I will reiterate that I have been supremely unimpressed by Rondo's play this day phase and urge them to re-evaluate him if I die.

I'd put Marmot just out of the POE. I have liked his EOD play and I recall liking a post of his earlier (though I can't remember which one). Not a lot to work with but all the stuff I've seen has been neutral or good and his vibes have been ok. Call it a gut read or whatever. Definitely don't agree with this random Marmot flash for no reason and if falcon is scum I would suggest guillotining everyone who tried to push it. Feels a bit like the Seanzie flash in GOC this year where they have been an unobjectionable slot and suddenly people are naked voting them at EOD for no reason at all.

I think Nate is a fine if unremarkable slot. They project the same sense of loneliness/solo solving that Boquise does and I can't really figure out what they're doing if they're scum. I liked JJJ's characterization of his posts as being like sipping tea in a comfy armchair, and I think that sense of composure and clarity is indicative of a townie approach. I know some have brought up that he seems to be attracting a lot of townreads for very thin reasons, but I don't think it's any worse than how people treated eg. Lucy. I wouldn't locktown him or anything but I feel comfortable with him aorn.

I did not realize it was EOD already. Luckily I checked before heading off to breakfast.

It seems like Creature isn't going over today and I think falcon is more suspicious than Ender so I'm moving my vote accordingly.

[VOTE: falcon] aubergine

I'm ok with a falcon exe - the way he treated Mac was weird and seemed to have no purpose other than randomly discrediting and shading him.

I am amenable to Creature and Falcon wagons, and would be happy to lend my support to either. I am less enthusiastic about Dizzy or Wilgy wagons; I think Creature and Falcon are both scummier than an =rand player, even if you look past Dizzy trying harder as scum, and I have a townread on Wilgy.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Jun 28, 2022 3:21 pm
Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jun 28, 2022 3:15 pm
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Jun 28, 2022 4:02 am
Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jun 28, 2022 2:44 am falcon, what's your Mac read exactly? You've been picking apart his posts, but you don't seem like you're gearing up for a push. I struggle to see what you're getting at.
67% town, I don't think scum Mac would push my ML so hard. I'd say his gut feel is real, it's just wrong.
What do you hope to gain by treating a town read like this?
I'm not sure I know what you mean...how am I treating him? If you're talking about my picking apart his read on me, I should think that obvious.

When you mention me picking apart his posts, are there any examples you have that are not related to Mac's read on my slot?

If your objective is to get him to reconsider his read on you, I'm not sure what you're doing is good at that at all.

lucy wrote: ↑Tue Jun 28, 2022 2:10 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jun 28, 2022 2:06 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jun 28, 2022 8:22 am General question for anyone:

If you had to name four solid town reads as of right this moment, who are they?
Thanks, by the way, to those that answered this prompt. I will do the same: Boquise, Mac, Alison, and lucy.
These are the strongest players in the game (excluding myself), do you have any concerns about that? and if all of you were town, would G-man re rand roles?

Intentionally manipulating roles like that isn't allowed.

Creature wrote: ↑Tue Jun 28, 2022 12:49 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 11:23 pm I kinda think that there is a necessary auto period here.

Like there is a line and those below it have to all die before those above it because if the mafia are all above it the game is already over and we are wasting our time and that's very unlikely.

Line

Dyslexicon
Creature
Falcon
DrWilgy

For some reason I don't want to put Fingersplints below the line. I think Dyslexicon has the most chance of being town but I can't reasonably put him above it.
This post is just terrible and you all are completely ignoring how terrible this post is

I've seen him make posts very similar to this as town and I'm pretty sure you have too so this is weird shade.

Boquise wrote: ↑Tue Jun 28, 2022 9:20 am
Creature wrote: ↑Tue Jun 28, 2022 8:51 am
Creature wrote: ↑Tue Jun 28, 2022 8:49 am Shall we do falcon, Marmot or NateTheLesser?

Or do you want to convince me on another player?
I'm leaning the three unless it's Dyslexicon taking advantage of "Dizzy would play harder as wolf" or Mac got Alison like she is a purring cat.
Why would Dizzy play harder as scum? I haven't seen this mentioned before

I think he feels an obligation to perform as mafia because a bad mafia member hurts their team a lot more than a bad townie.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jun 28, 2022 8:22 am General question for anyone:

If you had to name four solid town reads as of right this moment, who are they?

You, Mac, Boquise, Lucy.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jun 28, 2022 8:03 am I have a vague impression that fingersplints is trying to sort the game, even if we cannot see all of it in actual posts. There are nuggets and hints to suggest it. This is not a strong read and should be taken with a grain of salt, but it's my initial gun-to-head view.

Elaborate on these nuggets and hints? I am struggling to read fingersplints right now.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jun 28, 2022 8:00 am I have questions about the authenticity of some of falcon's play. A few examples:

~ I already mentioned his initial reception of Seanzie and I. I don't see a thread of logic that connects our early town leans to a "difference check", and the dichotomy presumed by a difference check is not one I care for.

~ When prompted to talk about his own reads, it's memes and gifs. That's fine in moderation, but I don't think it's being done in moderation. This might relate to the observation Nate made first about the awkward mix of gaming and shitposting.

~ Some gotcha moments that just look fake. I didn't like falcon's motion against Creature, just grabbing four posts Creature made in succession, voting, and doing a gif. On this page his treatment of Mac gives a similar impression. "Why vote out of order in your POE list of four players" -- even if the order was truly misinterpreted, the implication that Mac has to honor some precise order of operations is kinda bunk.

This is a good post.

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