The Syndicate

Also big shoutout to Michelle and her god reads. Caught all three of us at various points.

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 11:05 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 11:04 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 11:04 pm honestly this team could have swept if you didn’t bus tony

not sure why you did that but it was totally unnecessary lol
tony only died bc lc voted for him tho lolz
yea but lc wouldn’t have voted him if he wasn’t bussed because he wouldn’t really have been a wagon

It’s true but we didn’t know about LC ok?

Literally what happened was I was under a bit of pressure and when Tony came in I decided to scumread him in case I went down.

Then I asked him if he wanted me to back off and he was like “no, go harder”.

We never intended for him to actually die lol.

I want to just point out that we did NOT bus Tony.

It’s only a bus if he goes over. Until then it’s just light distancing.

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 10:58 pm it’s like a “im wolfing you please don’t be mad at me” post

It totally was, lol. I gotta be more disciplined.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 10:54 pm

I love this.

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 10:54 pm yall were sooooo close on ash today though it was frustrating to watch (oh yeah btw i was spoiled)

but yeah i don't think you'd get there on poison in f3. great wolf play

I argued so much with poison about the Wilgy kill. I felt like I’d just be outed.

But we took the shot to just win and dealt with the aftermath lol.

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 10:52 pm sorry for sucking but pretty sure we never get there anyway

ash and poison owned us

Tony too. He sold our interaction as w/v SO DAMN WELL.

Poison played out of her skin. So proud of both my partners!

Sorry I was so mean to you Hally!

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 10:28 pm
Ash Lael wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 10:27 pm
Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 10:26 pm
Ash Lael wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 10:25 pm
Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 10:24 pm Arete and Ash are mafia. Poison is independent.

The game is over.
Good news is you’re wrong.
Very well.

I'm wrong. What happens next?
Hopefully, we go to f3.
I'm not dense.

Hally is bad. Who is her teammate?

I still think you. But if not, and I don’t eat the NK, I hope I can get there tomorrow.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 10:26 pm
Ash Lael wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 10:25 pm
Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 10:24 pm Arete and Ash are mafia. Poison is independent.

The game is over.
Good news is you’re wrong.
Very well.

I'm wrong. What happens next?

Hopefully, we go to f3.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 10:24 pm Arete and Ash are mafia. Poison is independent.

The game is over.

Good news is you’re wrong.

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 10:23 pm
Ash Lael wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 10:22 pm Alright, time to f5 a poll for ten minutes.
what

I mean refresh the page constantly in case anyone switches.

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 10:20 pm im pretty sure lc was the third party? but just didn’t know it

Nah, LC was town. Here’s the quote:

“ Belgorod and Biohazards- Day 3 Ends: Long Con is eliminated. He was OLEG VALERIEVICH. Long Con was told he was a vanilla civvie, but he was actually a civvie asymptomatic carrier, spreading a lethal virus”

Alright, time to f5 a poll for ten minutes.

Okay I'm gonna go do real life things for a bit.

Will be back for the exciting conclusion.

Arete wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 8:52 pm ok

uh

so according to eevee from my homesite (who's, like, an actually good player to be clear, not some random troll, even if he sometimes plays like that) villagers are way more likely to just say 'potato' and wolves are way more likely to be like 'wtf are you doing'

(I have actually legitimately seen this work, I'm pretty sure he wasn't just messing with me)

except ... both of you said potato

so this didn't help at all unless I'm going to call the team Epi/Poison which seems not very plausible

That's actually probably not a bad test tbh. Like nothing is 100%, but I could see that working.

The potato tell never lies.

Oh no.

Arete wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 8:50 pm first one to say 'potato' is a villager

Potato.

Arete wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 8:49 pm ok

I have a question-ish thing for you both

and I feel like you're both going to be like 'wtf Arete what are you doing' regardless of your alignments but I promise I have actual reasons for it and I'm not just trolling you

Ok hit me.

Though I do need to go make lunch for my boy soon.

I am.

However you flip, it's been a joy playing with you Hally.

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 8:28 pm what if it’s arete/epi and they were just doing theater? but why kill wilgy then

I mean, I could see the Wilgy kill. It was either me or him to avoid killing a virused townie, and I was a lot more set on Arete being town.

But I really struggle to see their interaction as theatre. It's so risky, and Epi has only been half-reading the game. I don't buy him even being present enough to organise something elaborate like that. And I haven't seen Arete wolf but I would be surprised if that was their style either.

And also I just can't see Arete as a wolf independently. If they are and I've been fooled, well... I won't say I'm happy to lose to it, because I'm never happy to lose. But I will concede I have been beaten by a better wolf game than I really thought plausible.

So I've taken a bit of time out from the game and tried to clear my head and come back with a fresh set of eyes, and... I still can't see any world where Hally is town.

I can maybe tinfoil a bit that Epi is town and Arete or Poison could be wolves that have fooled me and there's going to be a last minute vote switch onto me, but I'm pretty sure I'm ending this phase voting scum. And that's really the best I can do.

Hally has not made any meaningful attempt to find wolves throughout the entire game, apart from a half-hearted push on LC day 2 that she gave up quickly, and some OMGUS here. She has however been very focused on her own position. Even while widely townread, she reacted hard against even a slight bit of tinfoil.

Hally had a sudden and dramatic switch in mood on day 3 when Tony flipped and she came under suspicion. Ok, getting suspected is not fun as either alignment. But even so, if Hally was town knowing she was innocent and believing that 112 and LC were innocent, she should have started to realise that there was something wrong with our PoE and tried to figure out what. If not on day 3, then certainly on day 4 when she was getting a free pass as a presumed virus fatality. The sudden fatalism is very consistent with a Tony/Hally/Epi world, where she suddenly sees little chance of the team making it through the game successfully.

Hally's townread on 112 during day 4 honestly strikes me as TMI. 112 herself acknowledged she was still in her wolf range, and the Tony interactions and progression didn't look good. It was an easy mislynch to make. To be so set that 112 was town without any sort of convincing reason and no good case on alternative suspect really just makes me think Hally was trying to get back some towncred after 112 flipped by whiteknighting her.

The second town doc who can also self heal frankly is a broken role for the setup, especially against what would have to be an all vanilla wolf team (since there are a max of 3 power roles). Hally says we're misinterpreting what the setup is, ok. But we were explicitly led to do that by Hally herself. However you cut it, it's almost certain she's deliberately misled us about her abilities in some way, and I see no reason for town to do that.

I don't agree with Poison's take that not saving Vulgard night 2 is a bad look for Hally. I do however think that Hally not dying night 2 is a bad look for Hally. Night one, ok, there was a successful PR hunt. Nights 3 and 4, Hally was expected to die from the virus. But on Night 2, I strongly think that if town, she would have been the obvious kill. She was universally townread and was in the town leader position. She had demonstrated the ability to create wagons nearly at will. Even if she hadn't been particularly aggressive in her scum hunting up to that point, there is always the potential for town Hally to flip the switch and just start nailing wolves left and right. She did that to us in g8 reunion when I wolfed against her, after potatoing her way through the bulk of the game, and it's pretty scary. With no doctor out there I absolutely would have killed her over Vulgard on N2 and I think most wolf teams would have done the same.

(Speaking of which, that's another reason I don't really buy that Arete is a wolf. If Arete is a wolf, she had Vulgard pocketed HARD. Why kill her strongest defender at the earliest opportunity?)

And all of this is ignoring the cleanest and simplest reason to suspect Hally - that she stood in the way of Tony going down d1.

So, in the face of all that, I just don't think I can reasonably put my vote anywhere else today. Win or lose, this is where I'm staking my ground.

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:03 am ok well if you’re town your vote is losing us the game, just saying

I fervently hope this is true and the 'us' is your wolf team.

If not, well, I guess I'm a derp.

dunya wrote: ↑Thu Oct 08, 2020 4:23 am sorry guys, i was feeling pretty lousy and turns out i had some food poisoning and im still a little out of it but im here

gth reads without reading the thread, but a few tone-posts from each player here we go

112 - w
Arete - t
Ash Lael - w
DrWilgy - t
Hally - w
Long Con - t
Michelle - w
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME - t
Poison Chan - t
tedxtr - w
TonyStarkPrime - t
TripleHaven - t
tutuu - t
Vulgard - t

my poe is
112
ash
hally
michelle
ted

i wanna say my strongest town reads are nanook and longcon tbh. my weakest wolf read is ted, so i will not vote for him until day 3 at least.

the person i think most likely could swing w from my t reads is vulgard for possible tmi, but i will eventually read up (or not) see what he has to offer.

high poster hally in a vacuum should be town, but i felt like she was gaslighting us with questions and content which she doesn't really build from. like they're prods and questions which she doesn't really care about one way or the other.

don't really know much about tsp, except he didn't like one of my posts and i like that reaction. no idea if triplehaven has posted yet, i'll get there.

wilgy im giving a soul town read to.

I ctrl-f'd Hally in Dunya's Iso. This is basically all Dunya said about Hally. Dunya did not vote Hally.

To say this rules out a Hally/Dunya team is absurd.

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 12:57 am i want to point out that i was one of dunya’s only/strongest scum reads and dunya strongly favors protecting teammates so that would never happen D1 if we were w/w

just in case you wanna like, actually evaluate whether an epi/me team makes sense

This is the exact argument you used for why me and tony weren’t a team.

Just saying.

Arete wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:58 pm Epi

Why are you so confident that Hally is town

This is an extremely good question. Like he’s willing to turn on a dime and decide this person or that person is scum. For almost no reason.

But the person who has the single strongest case against them? Nah, couldn’t be them.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:57 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:55 pm like i get why a villager who doesn’t know im town could think he is a wolf but like, he’s not. not ever
There's a civilian voting for you. We need that civilian to vote alongside me. I don't even have any votes right now.

Hi I’m a civilian voting for Hally.

You’re not going to talk me into voting for myself.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:00 pm
Ash Lael wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:57 pm Yeah, that makes me think Hally/Epi is probably correct.
Congrats on the win, Scarface.

What, are you outing?

[VOTE: Hally] aubergine

Yeah, that makes me think Hally/Epi is probably correct.

OK, I'm gonna do a trustfall/distrustfall thing.

Hally:

Trustfall - Seemed very tonally townie up until Tony flipped. Has a power role that I wouldn't normally expect a wolf to have.
Distrustfall - Pushed back significantly on Tony's lynch. Has felt very deflated since Tony's flip. If indeed town, the setup would probably be unbalanced. She's voting me and I probably mechanically need to crossvote lol.

Arete:

Trustfall: Vulgard Godread. I still don't believe she approaches EoD 1 that way with Tony as partner. Seems to still be focused on solving the game and not just pushing who she knows she needs to lynch.
Distrustfall: Ted and Wilgy died and were scumreading her.

Epignosis:

Trustfall: Made a good case on 112 shortly after Tony's flip.
Distrustfall: Is hard pushing people with no real logic behind the cases. Looks very agenda-driven.

Poison:
Trustfall: Has seemed very tonally pure, meta reads from confirmed townies say she is way out of her scum range. Voted Tony.
Distrustfall: ...Maybe saved her partner Hally on d3? I don't have anything strong here.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:33 pm
Ash Lael wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:32 pm
Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:29 pm
Ash Lael wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:27 pm
Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:24 pm
Ash Lael wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:23 pm I think I'm at epi/poison or epi/Hally, to be honest. I don't think I can convince myself Arete is scum.
You don't think that. You're a fraud.
Why don't I think that?
Because I was your super civilian call when I hanged 112 from the rafters after Tony bit it. You liked me then.

What changed Ash? What changed?
Among other things, your reads have moved around in a way that doesn't seem believable. 112 flipped town. All the players who I had below you in PoE have died or (in Hally's case) entered some kind of weird mechanical twilight zone where I don't even know.
Great. Lynch me and win the game.

Well I was going to try and sort through the mess a bit more before I started voting, but if you're going to taunt me, sure.

[VOTE: Epignosis] aubergine

Arete wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:28 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:22 pm
Arete wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:21 pm
Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:19 pm Arete, is Ash evil?
probably not because it's probably you and Hally

but he has done a couple things that pinged me and I have a hard time coming up with reasons why Wilgy is dead over Ash here if Ash is a villager

so I'm not, like, 100 percent on that
but it’s not me arete

what things did he do that pinged you?
not dying

immediately jumping to using the Wilgy nightkill to shade me (which, I'm probably biased because I'm a villager, but besides 'Ash is a wolf' the obvious explanation FMPoV for 'why did Wilgy die' is 'to shade me', obviously if Ash is a villager he doesn't know that I'm a villager but him jumping to using it shade me is consistent with how I think wolves would want to use the nightkill, also the way he was like 'wait, let me go quote something' and then made a second post to quote the read felt kind of performative)

shading me but not actually calling me a wolf

I still find Epi wolfier than him

In all fairness you did the exact same thing to me lol.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:29 pm
Ash Lael wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:27 pm
Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:24 pm
Ash Lael wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:23 pm I think I'm at epi/poison or epi/Hally, to be honest. I don't think I can convince myself Arete is scum.
You don't think that. You're a fraud.
Why don't I think that?
Because I was your super civilian call when I hanged 112 from the rafters after Tony bit it. You liked me then.

What changed Ash? What changed?

Among other things, your reads have moved around in a way that doesn't seem believable. 112 flipped town. All the players who I had below you in PoE have died or (in Hally's case) entered some kind of weird mechanical twilight zone where I don't even know.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:24 pm
Ash Lael wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:23 pm I think I'm at epi/poison or epi/Hally, to be honest. I don't think I can convince myself Arete is scum.
You don't think that. You're a fraud.

Why don't I think that?

I think I'm at epi/poison or epi/Hally, to be honest. I don't think I can convince myself Arete is scum.

Arete wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:14 pm
Ash Lael wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:12 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:55 am
tedxtr wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 3:16 pm I don’t get it, why are you not considering Nanook or Arete at all, why are they cleared?
Thinking about why Ted died and why 112 flipped Civ.

@Hally If you could keep yourself alive somehow over nook, I think that would be preferred.

Picking up on Ted's crumbs makes me think that Arete is the correct option. Hashing out nook following.

if I were a wolf and I were going to kill someone for saying I was scum, I'd kill Epi, not the person people were saying was my likeliest partner

Epi could have died to poison though.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:55 am
tedxtr wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 3:16 pm I don’t get it, why are you not considering Nanook or Arete at all, why are they cleared?
Thinking about why Ted died and why 112 flipped Civ.

@Hally If you could keep yourself alive somehow over nook, I think that would be preferred.

Picking up on Ted's crumbs makes me think that Arete is the correct option. Hashing out nook following.

Hally wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:07 pm
Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:06 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:04 pm i really don’t know what im allowed to say. i have arguably already said way too much. if you eliminate me over this then fine, that’s what was going to happen anyway. but at least now people have to stop and think about it for a second
You're allowed to say who is bad and why. Please stop fixating on this and tell us who is bad. There's a dead bad Tony. Do work. You apparently still like Mafia. I don't. If you aren't willing to do this, say so, and I'll make the adjustment.
i don’t know epi. i don’t know why wilgy was killed. that’s so random. who did he suspect? me right? lol

Actually, this brings something to mind.

Arete wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:01 pm
Ash Lael wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 9:53 pm
Arete wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 9:50 pm
Arete wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 4:41 pm vaguely tempted to just not look at Ash pairings because he almost always dies tonight if he's a villager and I'm slightly lazy (not going to explain why Ash specifically in case wolves somehow haven't noticed)
ok so to clarify this: I figured that scum would want to not kill someone who might die to the virus (especially if Hally was town)

I checked and the only two living people who fit that criterion are Ash and Wilgy

them killing Wilgy here is lowkey making me paranoid about Ash, but
Yeah, I figured that as well. I'm a bit surprised to be here.

It's seems like Hally really does have some sort of doctor ability though so maybe she's town and it was a doc dodge?
I feel like

ok so I haven't played on this site before so I don't know what people here consider balanced

but 15p Mountainous is considered balanced or slightly scumsided on most competitive-ish sites, JoaT^2 is considered slightly townsided on most sites

town having 2 docs + a poisoner in a 15p with 3 Mafia is more townsided than JoaT^2, I'm pretty sure, so I feel like that wouldn't be balanced and it's really unlikely that a hypothetical town doc would exist in this set-up

the two worlds I can think of where it might count as balanced are:

- if the poisoner is being treated as a negative utility role for balance purposes. I think this is unlikely because ... it literally autopoisons the wolf who killed them if it dies ...
- if there's a 3p (apparently this site likes those) + 2 Mafia alive right now. This is probably actually possible but I'm choosing to ignore this world because I don't think town can win in it, and game theory says that if it's impossible for you to win if X is true you should play as if X is never true

basically what I'm saying is that I think it's highly unlikely that there is a town doc alive

Mmm. A scum doc is a really weird thing to imagine, but I see what you're saying. It's what Nook was saying too.

I dunno though. If I'm saying Hally's town, then I'm looking at some kind of Epi/Poison world or something?

Arete wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 9:50 pm
Arete wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 4:41 pm vaguely tempted to just not look at Ash pairings because he almost always dies tonight if he's a villager and I'm slightly lazy (not going to explain why Ash specifically in case wolves somehow haven't noticed)
ok so to clarify this: I figured that scum would want to not kill someone who might die to the virus (especially if Hally was town)

I checked and the only two living people who fit that criterion are Ash and Wilgy

them killing Wilgy here is lowkey making me paranoid about Ash, but

Yeah, I figured that as well. I'm a bit surprised to be here.

It's seems like Hally really does have some sort of doctor ability though so maybe she's town and it was a doc dodge?

Ok, so uh.

Hally has some talking to do.

Also note that the above analysis is just looking at compatibility, not the likelihood of any particular individual being a wolf.

I'm a little concerned that I might be overweighting the assumption that wolves would always have at least one vote on Hally if she's town. That one assumption is leading me to rule out a lot of worlds.

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