Ted Lasso Mafia - game over!

[robyn]

Your defensiveness over a day 1 read that nobody else agrees with is certainly Intresting though

Your posts are extremely irritating, madam.
Mhm yes, makes 100 posts, gets shaded by a player who admits to not reading any of them critically, yeah I know I'd be so happy after that one, and totally not give in to natural impulses.

How dare I play a mafia game amIrite

@robyn do you think this exchange is in Bereft's range for mafia teammates (i.e., both he and Abigail as mafia)?

I don't actually suspect this, but I have a reason to ask.

i don't think it's in his range as mafia, not just teammates

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Noted, thanks.

[Cape90]

Cape is also pretty questionable. Will think. New arrivals will be essential.

and then you sheeped me onto scotty because "well scotty has gotten a good deal of suspicion"

What was the purpose of this post?

You literally voted Scotty after I voted/sussed Scotty without any second thought and it bothered me

Why am I in your top town tier with that on my resume?

Like Maybe I should have done what you did and isolate Bereft at the top, I just feel like everytime he speaks this game, he just is saying really towny things

But in terms of you, you just are very proactive and overall basically assuming the role of town leader which is almost always a town thing, no matter how hard i might be nitpicky about things, I will switch my reads at the drop of a hat and i do not care

Speaking of being nitpicky though

@Thunal33, I had the same thought that Cape's quick flurry of anti-Scotty propaganda might be more about getting out of trouble than actually suspecting Scotty. However, he made some points I thought were legitimately compelling too.

I think subscribing to Thunal's logic is silly, like why would I not only feel the need to get pressure off myself but also bus at the same time? Like to me that's a pretty bad mafia play unless I was gonna play exactly like ilario or something from my mafia team of Severance that u hosted. But you also said you dont in like another post. Generally I am anti bus early on, like I would vaguely sus my maf partners verbally if they were sussing me and if the thread direction was really going that way, then i might succumb. Like I didnt have a good voting record in my recent scum game here.

I felt kinda strange about ur dynamic with me/Scotty and how hard you shifted into me all of the sudden being scum from your light town reads. Felt like you were building specifically scumreads off consensus

[Cape90]

TOWN:

Bereft
JJJ

LIGHT TOWN:

robyn
LoRab
Thunal33

NULL:

Michelle
DM
DrWilgy
S~V~S

LIGHT MAFIA:

Scotty

forgot to put Long Con under Bereft

[robyn]

Noted, thanks.

he's more manipulative as town rather than as mafia

[Cape90]

robyn

if i had found u as town would i be a confident tr btw?

or do u just respect my wolfgame that much

my answer to this question would always be no so I am not sure why you are asking this

I do generally think your posts are good, but they haven't leapt out at me as really towny like Bereft's recently have honestly. I think around the point when you started questioning my thunal vote while also being on thunal yourself was pretty towny though, and yes all of those listed are in order.

some people would say yes

understandable, and what do you think about my constant lying so far?

Mostly NAI, felt okay about the lying to thunal thing because it felt bait-y

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I think subscribing to Thunal's logic is silly, like why would I not only feel the need to get pressure off myself but also bus at the same time? Like to me that's a pretty bad mafia play unless I was gonna play exactly like ilario or something from my mafia team of Severance that u hosted. But you also said you dont in like another post. Generally I am anti bus early on, like I would vaguely sus my maf partners verbally if they were sussing me and if the thread direction was really going that way, then i might succumb. Like I didnt have a good voting record in my recent scum game here.

I felt kinda strange about ur dynamic with me/Scotty and how hard you shifted into me all of the sudden being scum from your light town reads. Felt like you were building specifically scumreads off consensus

I don't necessarily agree with Thunal that you looked teamed with Scotty. I just agreed that there might have been an ulterior motive to the timing and fierceness of your suspicion (immediately after getting wagoned).

You've had a few moments in recent memory that I find bizarre, and I don't think a town read is justified any longer. As you said for yourself -- I will change my reads on a dime if it feels right. I get the impression you are either ignoring or forgetting your own reads some of the time, which makes the progressions feel vacant or even fake. Your earlier handling of Thunal was an example, and just now your handling of me was another. I felt like you concretely shaded me, and then when you made a reads list that shade was irrelevant (and perhaps forgotten).

[robyn]

cape if you are town u should appeal to me, you know my read on you is nice

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I'm making a thing. I'm doing Day 1 analysis. It's real.

[Michelle]

Good morning!

When was the last time you rolled mafia? Mind if I checked it out? I thought there was a game I was speccing where I pegged you as mafia by like day 3 but I don’t remember if that was confbias or you actually were mafia

Refer to the links in this post -- plenty of examples to work with. It's been both annoying and vindicating to be mafia so many times lately. I had one of my worst games ever in Philosophy 2 a couple years ago, but since then I have gone 5-0 as mafia (despite never being pleased to see the role card at first). Feels nice.

Wait- THATS RIGHT! I was just in a game with you in Don’t Starve, and would have absolutely gunned for you D2 if I didn’t get D1’d. I totally forgot about that game.

Ok ok I *can* read you.

You don't seem too confident here tho

That declaration is me feeling confident. Not sure what you mean

Putting 'can' between stars, I take it as not a solid statement.
Otoh if you can meta read Jay I am envious because I can't. Some hints will be appreciated!

When was the last time you rolled mafia? Mind if I checked it out? I thought there was a game I was speccing where I pegged you as mafia by like day 3 but I don’t remember if that was confbias or you actually were mafia

Refer to the links in this post -- plenty of examples to work with. It's been both annoying and vindicating to be mafia so many times lately. I had one of my worst games ever in Philosophy 2 a couple years ago, but since then I have gone 5-0 as mafia (despite never being pleased to see the role card at first). Feels nice.

Wait- THATS RIGHT! I was just in a game with you in Don’t Starve, and would have absolutely gunned for you D2 if I didn’t get D1’d. I totally forgot about that game.

Ok ok I *can* read you.

You don't seem too confident here tho

i think this is ~rand town perhaps

That's a pocketing attempt perhaps

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Day 1 blind interaction analysis

The spoiler below contains blind interactions for all players (excluding myself).

Spoiler: show

The image below is the same thing, but with the zero posters and very-low posters removed (since they're almost compatible with everyone by default).



Jay, what the hell is this?

"Blind interactions" are essentially pre-flip associations. I said earlier that I don't tend to do those unless I review every single interaction. Well here we are. This is, in my opinion, the most useful behavioral solving mechanism in my personal toolkit, and thankfully this game has been active enough for it to be reasonably productive (sans the inactive participants).

Here's how to read it, for those who aren't familiar:

Each block (cell) in the table represents an association between two players (identified by columns and rows). The color reflects my view of how well they fit together as mafia teammates.

Dark Green -- I don't think they make good sense as teammates. I dissociate this pair.
Light Green -- I think they're unlikely teammates, albeit with less confidence than dark green.
Yellow -- I have no good reason to say they're not teammates. They are compatible.
Orange -- I found at least one thing that might be teammate-indicative.

Important caveat -- I try to do this from an unbiased point of view, at least as much as I can. That means I included everyone, including my strongest town reads, and I assessed them impartially. That's how Bereft can be my top town read but still have an orange block up there.

When I assess associations, I assume one player is mafia for the sake of argument, and then assess how well the other player fits with them in that world. I have looked at every single pairing here through ISOs. I did not take thorough notes, and I won't post all of the tiny details that led to these conclusions. That would be too much for everyone else to absorb, and it would clutter the thread with messy data. Still, you need only ask me to expand my conclusion for on any individual cell in this table, and I will do that (as long as I don't get flooded with a thousand such questions).

Thoughts and conclusions

~ The single most important thing I look for when I complete a table like this is green blocks. They are more important to me than orange blocks. If I can find a player that seems to fit poorly with the majority of other players, that is great evidence that the player is town. The premier example of this in this table is none other than @Scotty (by the way, check out this deep Day 1 analysis, pal). Scotty technically fits with the lowest-posting players in the game (as does everyone), but I don't think he is a good fit with the vast majority of the active players. I think that is a very important finding, and it's one that I would love for everyone else to explore.

If Scotty is a major suspect of yours, who might be his teammates? Who makes sense? I think there's a case to be made about him an Abigail, but if that's not a pair then I am stuck with mostly zero posters. Those who want Scotty's head are responsible for reconciling this. If it cannot be reconciled, then he's probably a bad vote.

~ Cape90 turns out okay as well with respect to green blocks, though with one important caveat. I think he and Thunal fit together (I can expand on this later), and in my POE that would kind of make some sense.

~ LoRab has the most strong dissociations (tied with S~V~S), though the reasons for them might reduce the extent to which she can be town read. I think that a hypothetical mafia LoRab would have been guilty of considerable TMI, so it's her own posts largely driving those dissociations.

~ Most importantly, the raw prevalence of green blocks in the second table up there is important to me. Broadly, I don't think there are a lot of great mafia pairings that make sense among the active player base in this game roster. There are some, but most of the time when I make tables like this they're not that green. So that leaves me with two conclusions to consider:

1) I was too generous when handing out green blocks.
2) The active player base is broadly town, and there are mafia (potentially multiple) among the inactive players.

It could be that both 1 and 2 are true as well.

~~~

This post is too big already, so I will shut up. I want folks to be able to absorb all of this. Please, let me know if you have questions or are confused about what you're looking at. This is precisely the kind of hunting I have been wanting to do for quite a long time, but I have continuously rolled mafia in games and didn't have the right win condition for it. This was fun for me.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Good morning, Michelle. You caught me right as I close the door on my Mafia day, but I'll be around a bit on my phone for a while if you want to talk through anything.

[robyn]

jjj are u a [redacted]

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Yes, I am a [good thing].

No, I am not a [bad thing].

[robyn]

okay serious question, did u enjoy playing mafia today? or was it more grindy than anything

[JaggedJimmyJay]

okay serious question, did u enjoy playing mafia today? or was it more grindy than anything

I mostly enjoyed it. Day 1 is my favorite day of the game.

[Michelle]

Good morning, Michelle. You caught me right as I close the door on my Mafia day, but I'll be around a bit on my phone for a while if you want to talk through anything.

After reading only page 1 i don't have really AI takes.
A plus for your plan, reminds me of our Champs game
And I liked at a psychological level P#37, as a light town lean.
Going further now
I skimmed your wall, I will read it though after I catch up and have an educated guess about many players

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

UwU

Don't think I can handle another bad game though if I'm totally honest

There's good news: you have a team. If you're town, you still have a team. When you lack confidence, lean on them -- even if I'm not included in your view of that team. All groovy. Let your team keep you upright.

Thing is if I can't find them how do I lean on them

If you trust Long Con and S~V~S as you suggested before, that’s a plenty good start. Lean on them. They’re both highly capable.

Blah. My mental is destroyed right now.

[robyn]

okay serious question, did u enjoy playing mafia today? or was it more grindy than anything

I mostly enjoyed it. Day 1 is my favorite day of the game.

i like the late game where it comes down to calculation instead of observation and judgement calls. i think that’s why i also prefer the mafia alignment, i feel like it’s grindy and calculation based where i don’t have to be so confused

d1 is nice big i post a lot to imitate/fake influence which i don't have or want really

blah

assuming i’m town what could i do better here fypov?

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

do u have a read on me thunal or am i still null?

You're a townlean at this point. Pretty much for tone stuff/feeling comfortable and I liked how you objected to my push.

I feel like... all your town leans so far shouldn't be town plans

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

Leans*

[Michelle]

okay serious question, did u enjoy playing mafia today? or was it more grindy than anything

If Jay says yes, what's the conclusion?
What if he says no?

[robyn]

okay serious question, did u enjoy playing mafia today? or was it more grindy than anything

If Jay says yes, what's the conclusion?
What if he says no?

nothing, i’m not trying to make a read here

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

@JaggedJimmyJay what are your top reasons for sussing Scotty?

It would be dishonest of me to call them my reasons, because I am kind of sheeping this one right now. But I think some others raised valid gripes or were otherwise convincing:

- Scotty calling Long Con's "unhinged" post towny was goofy.
- As S~V~S climbs the town ladder, I give her instinct more credence (that Scotty was off in resisting LC's suspicion of her)
- His read on LoRab didn't actually make sense (this thing) -- acknowledging a "difference in approach" with respect to her aversion to town reads and then basically ignoring that difference when suspecting her.
- Bereft has never openly town read Scotty, and I think he has a strong grip on the game right now.
- I decided my own town read was biased by my desire for players to be involved, and he was the first to take up that banner.

I might add one new gripe: his suspicion of you seemed kind of opportunistic. He even agreed with your reads

Am I crazy? Didn't you call that same post the towniest post in the game?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

i like the late game where it comes down to calculation instead of observation and judgement calls. i think that’s why i also prefer the mafia alignment, i feel like it’s grindy and calculation based where i don’t have to be so confused

d1 is nice big i post a lot to imitate/fake influence which i don't have or want really

blah

assuming i’m town what could i do better here fypov?

I think hypothetical town robyn is doing okay. You’d be on the right track finding a town read (Bereft) and leaning on them to find your way forward.

If there’s anything to build on, it might be communication. I think you’ve done well to restrain impulsive posting, but there’s always room for demonstrative posting. I think your reads have predominantly been framed through lists or in isolated reactions to game content. Those are very useful. But a “demonstrative” read is less reactionary and more purposeful. A “case” is a classic example, though it doesn’t have to be that. If you are able to open a player’s ISO, collect the posts that are most meaningful to you, and lay out a demonstration of your read on that player through those posts, your influence will balloon. That’s just one suggestion.

[robyn]

okay serious question, did u enjoy playing mafia today? or was it more grindy than anything

If Jay says yes, what's the conclusion?
What if he says no?

nothing, i’m not trying to make a read here

i just wanna understand him and his like personal feelings better that i could probably (and very inaccurately) extend to an alignment read. i’ve tried exactly this before but it’s straight conjecture. so it’s more honest/out of the context of the game and i’m not even gonna try to divine his alignment from this. that would be dumb

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Am I crazy? Didn't you call that same post the towniest post in the game?

I was referring to a different Long Con post (a much larger post with multi-quotes galore).

[Michelle]

Spoiler: show

aking on a challenge is a lot like riding a horse, isn't it?
Poll runs till Fri Dec 08, 2023 12:00 am
Please note that if you vote, your vote will be visible.

You may select 1 option


‪☆Princess Abigail☆‬
1
10%
Voters: ☆Princess Abigail☆
‪Bereft‬
0
No votes
Voters: None
‪Cape90‬
0
No votes
Voters: None
‪DarlingMonroe‬
0
No votes
Voters: None
‪DrWilgy‬
0
No votes
Voters: None
‪JaggedJimmyJay‬
0
No votes
Voters: None
‪Long Con‬
0
No votes
Voters: None
‪LoRab‬
0
No votes
Voters: None
‪Michelle‬
1
10%
Voters: Bereft
‪robyn‬
1
10%
Voters: Scotty
‪RondoDimBuckle‬
0
No votes
Voters: None
‪Scotty‬
2
20%
Voters: Thunal33, Cape90
‪Seanzie‬
1
10%
Voters: JaggedJimmyJay
‪S~V~S‬
0
No votes
Voters: None
‪Thunal33‬
0
No votes
Voters: None
‪ts account‬
0
No votes
Voters: None
If you're comfortable while you're doing it, you're probably doing it wrong. (Host/mod/non)
4
40%
Voters: Roxy, robyn, Sloonei, fingersplints
Total votes: 10

VC

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

I hadn't noticed the elimination save on Rupert's role. That's... extremely powerful, and by far the most powerful thing in the game, and given the challenge already present, a bit deflating. But we must remain engaged and keep our spirts high.

Yeesh.

A) how do you not notice that, after giving a treatise on how to approach this game
B) I don’t think it’s as powerful as you are making it out to be- it feels contextual. Is there an announcement made? Are they removed from the thread? Can they use it only on themselves? I can only see it as a last resort thing for mafia, because it immediately puts a target on whoever it’s used on.

I’m not so sure you didn’t know about this

Hot. I'm not alone.

[robyn]

i like the late game where it comes down to calculation instead of observation and judgement calls. i think that’s why i also prefer the mafia alignment, i feel like it’s grindy and calculation based where i don’t have to be so confused

d1 is nice big i post a lot to imitate/fake influence which i don't have or want really

blah

assuming i’m town what could i do better here fypov?

I think hypothetical town robyn is doing okay. You’d be on the right track finding a town read (Bereft) and leaning on them to find your way forward.

If there’s anything to build on, it might be communication. I think you’ve done well to restrain impulsive posting, but there’s always room for demonstrative posting. I think your reads have predominantly been framed through lists or in isolated reactions to game content. Those are very useful. But a “demonstrative” read is less reactionary and more purposeful. A “case” is a classic example, though it doesn’t have to be that. If you are able to open a player’s ISO, collect the posts that are most meaningful to you, and lay out a demonstration of your read on that player through those posts, your influence will balloon. That’s just one suggestion.

mommmmm you mean i can’t give straight vibe reads? awwwww

(kk i’ll do that tomorrow)

oh actually while i was thinking of this, being purposeful and all, how much influence will town leader jjj have on the vote, will you strong arm?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

@robyn I don’t tend to “strong arm” in an assert dominance sense unless i think things are headed for disaster. But it’s often not necessary. Often when I get into leader mode, my preferred votes go over by default or at least someone in my POE pool dies. I don’t have to push since I play a significant role in creating the gamestate that leads to that vote anyway. I am gravity, and the thread is warped spacetime.

[Michelle]

okay serious question, did u enjoy playing mafia today? or was it more grindy than anything

If Jay says yes, what's the conclusion?
What if he says no?

nothing, i’m not trying to make a read here

i just wanna understand him and his like personal feelings better that i could probably (and very inaccurately) extend to an alignment read. i’ve tried exactly this before but it’s straight conjecture. so it’s more honest/out of the context of the game and i’m not even gonna try to divine his alignment from this. that would be dumb

Okay, I thought you want to link the enjoyment/lack of with alignament and that would be wrong fmpov and possibly showing an intention to insert a TMI read.

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

Im getting a chuckle out of the fact that Scotty/SVS interactions have continued to be of enduring interest in the thread, even as I've found them useful for one thing and nothing else.

Scotty SVS is T v T and this is silly silly

[robyn]

i realize i haven’t sent a gif after nearly 100 posts, i’m outed

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

Scotty reads entirely civ to me. Even though he needs to stop padding his post count. That always makes me suspish of people, although I know that isn't a tell for you. But I'm reading you as civ other than that.

This is NAI activity and Scotty usually posts a lot

Hmm...I don't like this

I don’t like corn on the cob

What’s your point

My point is

I don't like the

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

This*

[robyn]

@robyn I don’t tend to “strong arm” in an assert dominance sense unless i think things are headed for disaster. But it’s often not necessary. Often when I get into leader mode, my preferred votes go over by default or at least someone in my POE pool dies. I don’t have to push since I play a significant role in creating the gamestate that leads to that vote anyway. I am gravity, and the thread is warped spacetime.

understandable, i’m starting to respect players that play by poe more and more

[robyn]

okay serious question, did u enjoy playing mafia today? or was it more grindy than anything

If Jay says yes, what's the conclusion?
What if he says no?

nothing, i’m not trying to make a read here

i just wanna understand him and his like personal feelings better that i could probably (and very inaccurately) extend to an alignment read. i’ve tried exactly this before but it’s straight conjecture. so it’s more honest/out of the context of the game and i’m not even gonna try to divine his alignment from this. that would be dumb

Okay, I thought you want to link the enjoyment/lack of with alignament and that would be wrong fmpov and possibly showing an intention to insert a TMI read.

mmmmmmmm, as mafia my main concern is to look uninformed, as people have so much trouble with getting a confident read on me from vibes or posts or something else

[robyn]

oh fuck, bereft said he’d specifically tr that kind of post, in his post about svs being town

blah, don’t tr it bereft

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

I think your being cleared way to easily just for posting a lot and being loud

We can resolve JJJ later. I almost never feel like he’s a good D1 vote unless every other player is, like, Aristotle


Tho tbh playing with a bunch of philosophers sounds like a fucking nightmare so nm

Y'all can but I have a severe allergic reaction to just deciding not to solve people and let a possible wolf take control without question for any extensive period of town

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

Or maybe I'm lying and tr J3 and just want to make it look like he's pushable so wolfs don't kill him

Who knows?

I don't tr him but sometimes I do this

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

Clearly there's a wolf in the Scotty, Bereft, Cape90, Jay realm, so which of these is it?

Scotty > Cape90 >>>>> Bereft

[VOTE: JJJ] aubergine

Full on OMGUS mode. I know I said Jay shouldn’t be D1’d but circumstances change and I feel like I’d be remiss if I missed this again

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

@JaggedJimmyJay what are your top reasons for sussing Scotty?

It would be dishonest of me to call them my reasons, because I am kind of sheeping this one right now. But I think some others raised valid gripes or were otherwise convincing:

- Scotty calling Long Con's "unhinged" post towny was goofy.
well gawrsh
- As S~V~S climbs the town ladder, I give her instinct more credence (that Scotty was off in resisting LC's suspicion of her)
- His read on LoRab didn't actually make sense (this thing) -- acknowledging a "difference in approach" with respect to her aversion to town reads and then basically ignoring that difference when suspecting her.
I don’t understand this point. The point I’m making is exactly that her different approach is different and it is me parsing whether or not it is genuine or not
- Bereft has never openly town read Scotty, and I think he has a strong grip on the game right now.
- I decided my own town read was biased by my desire for players to be involved, and he was the first to take up that banner.

I might add one new gripe: his suspicion of you seemed kind of opportunistic. He even agreed with your reads

All and all though, these look like independently sussed points and not you just following the crowd.

Damn you. Are you good after all?

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

Scotty reads entirely civ to me. Even though he needs to stop padding his post count. That always makes me suspish of people, although I know that isn't a tell for you. But I'm reading you as civ other than that.

This is NAI activity and Scotty usually posts a lot

Hmm...I don't like this

I don’t like corn on the cob

What’s your point

what do you think her point is? This seems like a silly question to ask

I knew I liked you

Wait...I didn't.

I also liked Scotty but now I don't

What's happeningggggggggg

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

Dumb read alert:

DarlingMonroe got started very slowly in Severance (as town). She was preoccupied a bit by having BTSC with Jack as a mason and spent most of her initial playing energy in that space.

Maybe. She's. Preouccupied. Again. By. A. Different. Kind. Of. BTSC.

Bruh

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

Town read:
Cape
Long con
Thunal (uno reversal. I dunno. Really liked the involvement I’ve seen in my read back today. Seems solvy)

Town lean:
JJJ (should not be voted today, only a doofus would do it)
Princess Abigail (I also don’t feel like mafia PA comes after the juggernaut JJJ immediately, tho I must profess I don’t know what mafia PA looks like. I’m pretty sure I’ve never seen it)
bereft (ending response about Robyn)

Scumlean:
LoRab. (Only minorly Scumlean because I haven’t seen too much town equity atm)

Scumread:
Robyn

Others need to post more

I can’t make a good read on SVS at the moment- my paranoia is coming back inadvertently because she keeps wondering why I’m not paranoid. WELL THE PARANOIA IS IN TOWN AND FOUND AN AIR BNB

We’re still missing like 3 people that haven’t posted, which is…….bad. As I have said early on with JJJ, we need town to POST in a no-info dumping game.
@RondoDimBuckle @Seanzie @ts account

Wait... you've never seen me wolf?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

JaggedJimmyJay is permitted one dumb read per calendar day.

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

I will murder a zero poster if I feel like it.

[VOTE: Seanzie] aubergine

Hmm

I don't like this

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

I'm going to establish a universal law that the minimum number of games of experience necessary to declare a "god read" is 50 games.

I have a God read on abi


She's town

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

Game solved