Ted Lasso Mafia - game over!

[Thunal33]

GTH I'd say SVS at this point. If our PoE is about right, Scotty is never wolf with SVS and I think the Long Con kill looks good for her. Both from the POV of her always wanting to push LC and that LC died townreading her while everyone else was suspecting her.

Thanks for the answer. At least behaviorally, S~V~S may be the among the less problematic names on the list. I disagree pretty strongly about the Long Con kill, but for the time being I'll leave it alone (understanding how folks feel about night kill analysis).

When you say "our POE", does that imply your own POE consists of the six not-you players in my POE?

Immediately, yes. I'm not confident it contains the full solve but I think it's a good place to look today and there are probably 2-3 mafia in there.

[robyn]

If there are mafia concentrated in [LoRab, Michelle, S~V~S] then perhaps there is room to ask questions.

No, you see, that's the beauty of it. Its not going to hold water over here on the Syndicate, and I will not pretend anyone cares, but I have to brag. But A. There is mafia concentrated there probably. B. I don't actually defend my teammates as mafia, definitely never multiple. As robyn said, schweppes (as w) is one of the best town players in existence.

@robyn would you agree that Bereft is highly unlikely to stand in defense of one or more mafia teammates?

he'd be first in line to bludgeon them

[JaggedJimmyJay]

There is a reasonable precedent established on The Syndicate for mafia cursers to target their own members. It's an old tradition (and cursing roles themselves are kind of an old tradition). I think it's barely a mechanical credit to Scotty that he was targeted, but not clearing.

The better question is probably what is Scotty doing with his condition? I appreciate that he is at least trying to be coherent within his limitations.

[robyn]

why?

i gave 0 reasoning, you bought my confidence, you've also been referring to your own cape read as sheeping me

One reason was your turnaround between your read on Cape day 1 and your read on Cape day 2.

I also found the read believable myself and thought Cape had towny moments.

but why did you phrase it as sheeping my read, when you are clearly analytical and need reasons for everything, and would have 0 trouble producing good reasons as either alignment

what's your read on scotty rn

I'd rather talk about something else.

I scumlean Scotty. I feel like he spent a lot of his time trying to appease SVS and there were a couple reads that felt forced from him.

mechanically if targeted by mafia he's town, no?

why do you wanna talk about something else?

He could curse himself or fake having it. I've actually done it myself in The Emperor's Soul where I had a self-imposed postcap.

what cycle did you do it in

also svs stands at serious risk of being hard tunneled by scotty this cycle, no?

[robyn]

There is a reasonable precedent established on The Syndicate for mafia cursers to target their own members. It's an old tradition (and cursing roles themselves are kind of an old tradition). I think it's barely a mechanical credit to Scotty that he was targeted, but not clearing.

The better question is probably what is Scotty doing with his condition? I appreciate that he is at least trying to be coherent within his limitations.

i don't buy it, tradition is fucking useless when you have town robyn/bereft/jjj carving up the thread

i believe him being targeted by scum simply clears him, furthermore scum is smart to use that ability n1 due to the fact scotty probably doesn't live to see lylo

feel free to disagree but i'm gonna run with it

also second question, according to your solve d2 has been extraordinarily towny, do you have that vibe? does instinct agree?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

also second question, according to your solve d2 has been extraordinarily towny, do you have that vibe? does instinct agree?

To ensure I understand, do you mean that the thread has been town-populated on Day 2?

If so, sure, I think that impression fits the bill. I haven't found anyone regularly posting this day phase to be saying anything problematic. I could nitpick people if I wanted to (perhaps Thunal still as the defacto seventh POE member), but my broad impression of this phase is that it's being run by town. The most suspicious presence of Day 2 to me remains Michelle (acknowledging potential confirmation bias) for lack of coherent solving.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I understand if anyone is uneasy about a theory that suggests the mafia team are making almost zero posts as a group today, but that's where my work lands me. I kind of felt it on Day 1 too, though perhaps I directed my inactivity ire at the wrong slot(s).

[robyn]

I understand if anyone is uneasy about a theory that suggests the mafia team are making almost zero posts as a group today, but that's where my work lands me. I kind of felt it on Day 1 too, though perhaps I directed my inactivity ire at the wrong slot(s).

the only thing preventing me from literally bouncing off the walls like a rabid animal is the fact that i know [cape, rondo, bereft] are town and wigly/monroe are also probably town

[JaggedJimmyJay]

My specialty is being calm about everything while the gang chitters their teeth.

Who wants to play tic-tac-toe?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Spoiler: show

I don't actually want to play, it's a broken game

[robyn]

wowee ur bored

anyway storytime

[JaggedJimmyJay]

GTH reads on my POE pool:

Abigail - mafia
LoRab - mafia
Michelle - mafia
Scotty - town
S~V~S - mafia
Thunal - town
ts account - mafia

One mafia too many, but that's okay with me. Also I am probably far too biased by my own analytic workload to be able to achieve proper "GTH reads" at this point, but whatever I AM bored.

[robyn]

for the past week or so this girl has been flirting with me, genuinely trying to make me feel special and appeal to me and etc etc. and i just don't feel anything, she was very confused too because for her it never ever fails and people always love her immediately. so on and so fourth, due to my extensive flirting with guys and the fact that i easily feel something when flirting or getting compliments etc etc i have started to think that maybe i'm just gay (as i have been considering). i've also never felt the impulse to flirt with a girl which is strange in and of itself. etc etc i might actually be gay

[robyn]

wowee i scared jjj off

[Bereft]

Congrats.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Let's give it up for self-discovery.

[robyn]

jay, what’s the chop order

[JaggedJimmyJay]

jay, what’s the chop order

Great question. My mindset is more "who's right for today?" instead of "who goes first then second then third...?"

If I attempt the latter question though, I'm thinking something like...

Michelle (fits on most of my viable teams) > LoRab (fits on most of my viable teams) > ts account (fits on most of my viable teams, but Seanzie 2.0 is scary) > S~V~S/Scotty (need to sort difference check)

Subject to change

[robyn]

@Bereft you up?

[Michelle]

Rondo all that “keeping me in check” is omgusing my suspicions after giving me the easiest town read I have ever received.

what do you mean by this? You clearly don't think Thunal is super towny unless i am misinterpreting what you are saying

I was referring to Michelle in that comment. Rondo made an argument for why Michelle's responses to me at EOD1 were towny, and that was my counter.

Your conclusion was and is rushed and limited by the fact I didn't have time to explain it at all.
I started to play 5 years ago as noob player, with low English reading/writing skills, but with a life experience who let me the possibility to understand things unspoken behind the words. It felt thrilling to find words to defend myself while I was accused of being the bad guy. As mafia, I didn't even have to do much because my mafia rands were not many so my start in forum mafia was to be villager again and again.
My homie who restarted the mafia section in our forum sent me to MU to play the Mentor mentee game in january 2019. My mentor is a legendary player and he mentored me after playing 12 years of mafia.
I was always paranoid playing with Momstrman, he is now retired, maybe turbo-ing from time to time, but at one moment I learned to read him by a small trick.
Because he is retired and also because he is not a Syndicate regular I can tell you about this trick, otherwise I hate to show my shortcuts for reading someone.
My mentor was always mentoring town when he was town giving advice for the play in general. As mafia he wasn't doing it. And I started to notice that at other very strong players as well.
You were doing it in our finale game and your start here made me write that post because I considered your advice useful for town.
I don't even believe it's the easiest town read you ever had. It's just a take I posted to see what feedback I receive from it. You speculated the rest. Made from it more than it was, imaginated the omgua when I said it's not set in stone.
A read made by game experience can be a bad or a good read, and i am always starting somewhere where an idea pops in my head, which is exactly what I did with the town read on you.

[Michelle]

jay, what’s the chop order

Great question. My mindset is more "who's right for today?" instead of "who goes first then second then third...?"

If I attempt the latter question though, I'm thinking something like...

Michelle (fits on most of my viable teams) > LoRab (fits on most of my viable teams) > ts account (fits on most of my viable teams, but Seanzie 2.0 is scary) > S~V~S/Scotty (need to sort difference check)

Subject to change

I have to read a lot but until then can you tell me about fitting me with your viable teams?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I have to read a lot but until then can you tell me about fitting me with your viable teams?

I'm actually working that out more thoroughly right now. You're not in all possible teams given my analysis, just a lot of them. I will expand soon.

[robyn]

jay, what’s the chop order

Great question. My mindset is more "who's right for today?" instead of "who goes first then second then third...?"

If I attempt the latter question though, I'm thinking something like...

Michelle (fits on most of my viable teams) > LoRab (fits on most of my viable teams) > ts account (fits on most of my viable teams, but Seanzie 2.0 is scary) > S~V~S/Scotty (need to sort difference check)

Subject to change

I have to read a lot but until then can you tell me about fitting me with your viable teams?

he posted everything, just read

[Bereft]

Good 'eve.

[robyn]

Good 'eve.

i know you're pro child labor and all so i'm gonna ask u to verify the logic of jjj's walls, every single one, check the logical validity and etc

doesn't have to be right now but you have nothing better to do

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Why am I making myself deal with combinatorics to solve a Mafia game? My head.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I want to ensure I cover every combination of four names in {Michelle, LoRab, ts account, S~V~S, Abigail, Scotty} that does not include {S~V~S, Scotty}.

[Bereft]

Ya know, its just 6C2 - 4C2 = 9 possibilities.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Ya know, its just 6C2 - 4C2 = 9 possibilities.

I believe you.

I have seven of them and just need to find two more then.

[robyn]

Ya know, its just 6C2 - 4C2 = 9 possibilities.

do it for jjj, i command u

[robyn]

Abigail, LoRab, Michelle, SVS
Abigail, LoRab, Scotty, Michelle
Abigail, LoRab, Scotty, ts account
Abigail, LoRab, ts account, Michelle
Abigail, LoRab, ts account, SVS
Abigail, Scotty, ts account, Michelle
Abigail, ts account, Michelle, SVS
LoRab, Scotty, ts account, Michelle
LoRab, ts account, Abigail, Michelle
LoRab, ts account, Michelle, SVS

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Thank you, robyn. Bless. BLESS.

[robyn]

Michelle, Abigail, LoRab, ts account
Michelle, SVS, Abigail, LoRab
Michelle, SVS, Abigail, ts account
Michelle, SVS, LoRab, ts account
Scotty, Abigail, LoRab, ts account
Scotty, Michelle, Abigail, LoRab
Scotty, Michelle, Abigail, ts account
Scotty, Michelle, LoRab, ts account
SVS, Abigail, LoRab, ts account

(this is right)
(used gpt4)

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Pray for me if I add Thunal. 15 full combinations becomes 35.

[Bereft]

Abigail, LoRab, Michelle, SVS
Abigail, LoRab, Scotty, Michelle
Abigail, LoRab, Scotty, ts account
Abigail, LoRab, ts account, Michelle
Abigail, LoRab, ts account, SVS
Abigail, Scotty, ts account, Michelle
Abigail, ts account, Michelle, SVS
LoRab, Scotty, ts account, Michelle
LoRab, ts account, Abigail, Michelle
LoRab, ts account, Michelle, SVS

9th is a duplicate of the 4th

[robyn]

Pray for me if I add Thunal. 15 full combinations becomes 35.

gpt4 gives 25 not 35

[Bereft]

Removing the forbidden pair brings it down to 25, another perfect square. They're popping up everywhere today.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Pray for me if I add Thunal. 15 full combinations becomes 35.

gpt4 gives 25 not 35

That's probably with S~V~S/Scotty dropped.

[Bereft]

Pray for me if I add Thunal. 15 full combinations becomes 35.

gpt4 gives 25 not 35

Also known as why we dont use gpt4.

[robyn]

Pray for me if I add Thunal. 15 full combinations becomes 35.

gpt4 gives 25 not 35

Also known as why we dont use gpt4.

u wanna do it instead?

[Bereft]

Pray for me if I add Thunal. 15 full combinations becomes 35.

gpt4 gives 25 not 35

Also known as why we dont use gpt4.

u wanna do it instead?

I got both 25 and 35 with no problem.
Its the listing I don' wanna do, cuz its too much typing.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Highly doubt they're teamed | Unlikely to be teamed | Maybe compatible even if I don't feel it | Compatible

I need to sort my teams out better. Here are the combinations including any group of four from {Michelle, LoRab, ts account, S~V~S, Abigail, Scotty} with any instance of {Scotty, S~V~S} together removed. I have not included any combinations with Thunal in them. I may try to tackle that if my team of combinatorics gurus can help me out.

[Michelle, LoRab, ts account, S~V~S] - all mutually yellow

[Michelle, LoRab, ts account, Abigail] - all mutually yellow

[Michelle, Abigail, ts account, Scotty] - all mutually yellow except for Michelle/Scotty

[LoRab, ts account, Scotty, Abigail] - all mutually yellow except for LoRab/Scotty

[Michelle, LoRab, ts account, Scotty] - all mutually yellow except for Michelle/Scotty and LoRab/Scotty

[Michelle, LoRab, Scotty, Abigail] - all mutually yellow except for Michelle/Scotty and LoRab/Scotty

[LoRab, ts account, S~V~S, Abigail] - all mutually yellow except for S~V~S/Abigail

[Michelle, LoRab, S~V~S, Abigail] - all mutually yellow except for S~V~S/Abigail

[Michelle, ts account, Abigail, S~V~S] - all mutually yellow except for S~V~S/Abigail

Loosely ranked by "color viability", though differentiating is controversial after the full yellow teams.

[robyn]

There are 25 possible combinations of four names from the set {Michelle, LoRab, ts account, SVS, Abigail, Scotty, Thunal} without including both Scotty and SVS on the same team:

Thunal, Scotty, Michelle, Abigail
Thunal, Scotty, Michelle, LoRab
Thunal, Scotty, Michelle, ts account
Thunal, Scotty, Abigail, LoRab
Thunal, Scotty, Abigail, ts account
Thunal, Scotty, LoRab, ts account
Thunal, Michelle, SVS, Abigail
Thunal, Michelle, SVS, LoRab
Thunal, Michelle, SVS, ts account
Thunal, Michelle, Abigail, LoRab
Thunal, Michelle, Abigail, ts account
Thunal, Michelle, LoRab, ts account
Thunal, SVS, Abigail, LoRab
Thunal, SVS, Abigail, ts account
Thunal, SVS, LoRab, ts account
Thunal, Abigail, LoRab, ts account
Scotty, Michelle, Abigail, LoRab
Scotty, Michelle, Abigail, ts account
Scotty, Michelle, LoRab, ts account
Scotty, Abigail, LoRab, ts account
Michelle, SVS, Abigail, LoRab
Michelle, SVS, Abigail, ts account
Michelle, SVS, LoRab, ts account
Michelle, Abigail, LoRab, ts account
SVS, Abigail, LoRab, ts account

[robyn]

Here are all 35 possible combinations of four names from the set {Michelle, LoRab, ts account, SVS, Abigail, Scotty, Thunal}, including combinations where Scotty and SVS can be on the same team:

Thunal, Scotty, Michelle, SVS
Thunal, Scotty, Michelle, Abigail
Thunal, Scotty, Michelle, LoRab
Thunal, Scotty, Michelle, ts account
Thunal, Scotty, SVS, Abigail
Thunal, Scotty, SVS, LoRab
Thunal, Scotty, SVS, ts account
Thunal, Scotty, Abigail, LoRab
Thunal, Scotty, Abigail, ts account
Thunal, Scotty, LoRab, ts account
Thunal, Michelle, SVS, Abigail
Thunal, Michelle, SVS, LoRab
Thunal, Michelle, SVS, ts account
Thunal, Michelle, Abigail, LoRab
Thunal, Michelle, Abigail, ts account
Thunal, Michelle, LoRab, ts account
Thunal, SVS, Abigail, LoRab
Thunal, SVS, Abigail, ts account
Thunal, SVS, LoRab, ts account
Thunal, Abigail, LoRab, ts account
Scotty, Michelle, SVS, Abigail
Scotty, Michelle, SVS, LoRab
Scotty, Michelle, SVS, ts account
Scotty, Michelle, Abigail, LoRab
Scotty, Michelle, Abigail, ts account
Scotty, Michelle, LoRab, ts account
Scotty, SVS, Abigail, LoRab
Scotty, SVS, Abigail, ts account
Scotty, SVS, LoRab, ts account
Scotty, Abigail, LoRab, ts account
Michelle, SVS, Abigail, LoRab
Michelle, SVS, Abigail, ts account
Michelle, SVS, LoRab, ts account
Michelle, Abigail, LoRab, ts account
SVS, Abigail, LoRab, ts account

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Thanks robyn and Bereft, truly. You've made an extremely difficult task plausible, and who knows -- maybe that's the extra leg that pushes town over the line.

[robyn]

[LoRab, ts account, S~V~S, Abigail] - all mutually yellow except for S~V~S/Abigail

[Michelle, LoRab, S~V~S, Abigail] - all mutually yellow except for S~V~S/Abigail

[Michelle, ts account, Abigail, S~V~S] - all mutually yellow except for S~V~S/Abigail

i suspect it's one of these, abbie and svs are solid players

[JaggedJimmyJay]

16 more with Thunal in them. I think I can. I think I can. I think I can.

[robyn]

Thanks robyn and Bereft, truly. You've made an extremely difficult task plausible, and who knows -- maybe that's the extra leg that pushes town over the line.

gpt4 is fucking awful at writing but it's occasionally helpful

[JaggedJimmyJay]

[LoRab, ts account, S~V~S, Abigail] - all mutually yellow except for S~V~S/Abigail

[Michelle, LoRab, S~V~S, Abigail] - all mutually yellow except for S~V~S/Abigail

[Michelle, ts account, Abigail, S~V~S] - all mutually yellow except for S~V~S/Abigail

i suspect it's one of these, abbie and svs are solid players

I could certainly see it. The S~V~S/Abigail dissociation is mostly "Abigail TMI'd S~V~S", but I wouldn't be floored if that was deliberate.

[robyn]

[LoRab, ts account, S~V~S, Abigail] - all mutually yellow except for S~V~S/Abigail

[Michelle, LoRab, S~V~S, Abigail] - all mutually yellow except for S~V~S/Abigail

[Michelle, ts account, Abigail, S~V~S] - all mutually yellow except for S~V~S/Abigail

i suspect it's one of these, abbie and svs are solid players

I could certainly see it. The S~V~S/Abigail dissociation is mostly "Abigail TMI'd S~V~S", but I wouldn't be floored if that was deliberate.

tmi or townreading a wolfmate