Kagemusha (ENDGAME)

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Pipe dream:

I’d love if every player could give a read on every player.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

@Simon @motobot @Abigail Sophia

I'd be interested to know what each of you thinks of Epignosis so far in this game.

All I have to say is I wouldn't be surprised if Epi was Mafia.

Thank you, motobot. Is there anyone here you believe seems the most trustworthy?

[falcon45ca]

I’ve had “reads”. They’re of low quality. I’ve been opem about that.

For example: you’ve just voted for LoRab. Does that vote gove you confidence? Do you believe in that vote?

I am confident that either Lorab will engage, which is why I tagged them...






Or they won't. In which case I'm more than happy to see them flip

[falcon45ca]

@Simon @motobot @Abigail Sophia

I'd be interested to know what each of you thinks of Epignosis so far in this game.

All I have to say is I wouldn't be surprised if Epi was Mafia.

If that is all you have to say about Epi, how about some other players?





What's your take on JJJ?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

[VOTE: DrWilgy] aubergine

[JaggedJimmyJay]

motobot — bad vote because he is nothing like his mafia self in Don’t Starve

Simon — bad vote because he progressed his read on me quite believably

LoRab — bad vote because the Scotty kill suggests at least somewhat attentive mafia, so why vote the one player that has least demonstrated that

Epignosis — bad vote, because his sig read looked legitimate even in error

falcon45ca — bad vote, because his posts look like generic falcon posts

TonyStarkPrime — bad vote, because his mechanical preparedness would be better suited to mafia chat if he had the option

Long Con — bad vote, because he eventually showed a spark when he believed he was being misrepresented

sig — I have no reason to call this a bad vote — his posts today suggest night phase attentiveness

Abigail Sophia — I have no reason to call this a bad vote

DrWilgy — I have no reason to call this a bad vote

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Some Wilgy concerns:

Spoiler: show

Voting [VOTE: Tony] aubergine to split the vote and to keep my wolfmate moto from being a lead wagon.

Fascinating.

No one has broken my tie split and we are down to the last booblibops of day.

The only standout example of classically Wilgyan hunting, and it didn't amount to anything.

Spoiler: show

thinks going into eod.

Out of the playing players, I think TSP and Falc are the wolfier. Falc W > TSP W though.

Out of the not really here players PAbigail is probably the best vote. They were just not here enough to warrant votes compared to the rest of them. Further PAbigail not really having anything to add following catchup is bleh. I do have hestitate as I've seen this cold footed PAbigail recently be town, HOWEVER that doesn't constitute a reason to not vote them.

Scotty, LC, JJJ, Epi, Moto all have reasons as to why I wouldn't vote so that's fun.

D1 PoE put your consensus between {AbigailS, Falc, LoRab, Sig, Simon, TSP}

Wilgy didn't explain his Tony suspicion. He did explain his falcon suspicion, though I'm not sure it was respectful of falcon's town range. He criticized falcon for "not moving the thread", and I am not sure town falcon moves threads all that often.

I find this to be the single most suspicious line of Wilgy's (and perhaps in the game overall). I am not accustomed to Wilgy being so agreeable with boring shrug votes like Princess Abigail was on Day 1, and this rationale seems unWilgy-like. Especially that HOWEVER portion is kind of hard to stomach. If he is less friendly to generic slanker eliminations in general (which I would describe Wilgy to be), and he has recent memories of PA being town in the slanker body, then why endorse that wagon without any resistance or demanding something more of her other voters?

I don't know what these reasons were apart from motobot. Wilgy attributed that to Epi's read on motobot.

Spoiler: show

I am on board with the POE, Wilgy. I don't really see it with Tony, but I am willing to listen on that one.

It's just gut.

I do often find myself on this issue with Tony though. Tony's posts always have a 'shoot from the hip' feel to me and that often makes me think that progression is splotchy if not missing and that generally leads to dissonance with how I read.

SO yeah, gut read Tony W but I often gut read Tony W, so I'm hesitant to trust that without the input of others.

Just looks a little phony. I had considered that it might signal a Wilgy/Tony pair, but even without that it's iffy in isolation.

Spoiler: show

I shouldn't have given Falc the day pass. POE is too big for that.

Falc feels not like town Falc. If I'm hunting for W I vote there.

I really need to know where this read stands as of today.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

falcon45ca — bad vote, because his posts look like generic falcon posts

Probably a bad reason to call falcon a bad vote. But voting falcon felt like a wet fart.

[sig]

. I also don’t quite see why he wouldn’t count the Indy as pro civ? I don’t want to delve too deep into third parties, but from what I saw it seems to be a more civ aligned third party.

To share one of my absolute strongest convictions of playing mafia: never trust an Indy or neutral role/character. NEVER!! Way too dangerous and they can screw everyone over when they want…especially dependent on who has the role. And I don’t trust any of yall to not be the kind to totally take an Indy role and run super Indy with it.

Lorab isn’t here so I’ll give them another day.

I mean, you literally just got here. But im here for the moment. Will likely have low activity this evening, but then fully in the game.

Yea,

That’s why I’d like to give you at least one whole phase to get your feet wet, granted it’s a small game, but I hate when we vote off inactive players as I myself frequently fall into that category these days.

[sig]

If nothing else, civilian Long Con rarely responds to suspicion in this way.

Can you explain this a bit more

[sig]

I'm seeing a lot of JJJ accusing longcon over unusual behavior. But seeing as I rarely play this, I'm not sure how longcon normally plays.

However the real noticable thing is that JJJ is the most active player in the game thus far. And because of this, he just might be talking so much that he's running out of crap to throw at people.

He had good accusations at the start of the game but now it just feels kinda random at this point. And again, I don't play this much, so I'm not familiar with how people normally play.

This might not turn out to be true, but I just thought I'd say something.

I was just starting to get the same idea.

I like this read from brood 1 and 3

[sig]

If y'all kill me, quite genuinely: best of luck. I'm not sure what this thread will be.

I don’t like this post, it pings me a lot and plays into that we should only leave Jay alive since he’s posting and active, but I mean if he’s mafia and posting and active does that really help?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

sig is definitely town

[sig]

I'm going to call sig a lock civilian. Anybody know why?

Since he’s a fun dude?

[sig]

Whether folks believe me or not is their own prerogative. I don't give a damn at this point. But for my own peace of mind and perhaps for future reference (in my dreams):

Long Con, when civilian and accused, "annoys" me (for lack of a better word). This is not meant as a criticism of Long Con the person or even the player. He is doing nothing wrong. He is interacting with the game and pursuing what he believes to be appropriate, if he is a civilian. That's okay. But that is exactly what I was waiting for. To ignore accusations entirely and pretend the game barely exists is not quite the same as to laugh in my face for trying to sort him, and the latter has happened before more than once. It's annoying, it's tilting, but it has been authentic every past time I can remember it happening. So I moved my vote to falcon, who has not done anything to suggest he is a civilian.

Never mind my last question for Jay.

I’m thinking either LC/Jay are mafia. But, not both

[sig]

He's not Glorfindel. Jesus.

@Simon Why did your team kill Scotty?

[sig]

I’ve had “reads”. They’re of low quality. I’ve been opem about that.

For example: you’ve just voted for LoRab. Does that vote gove you confidence? Do you believe in that vote?

I am confident that either Lorab will engage, which is why I tagged them...






Or they won't. In which case I'm more than happy to see them flip

Ooo I hate this post.

[sig]

@Simon @motobot @Abigail Sophia

I'd be interested to know what each of you thinks of Epignosis so far in this game.

All I have to say is I wouldn't be surprised if Epi was Mafia.

Why?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

sig
motobot
Simon

Epignosis
TonyStarkPrime

Long Con
falcon45ca
LoRab

Abigail Sophia
DrWilgy

[sig]

I'm seeing a lot of JJJ accusing longcon over unusual behavior. But seeing as I rarely play this, I'm not sure how longcon normally plays.

However the real noticable thing is that JJJ is the most active player in the game thus far. And because of this, he just might be talking so much that he's running out of crap to throw at people.

He had good accusations at the start of the game but now it just feels kinda random at this point. And again, I don't play this much, so I'm not familiar with how people normally play.

This might not turn out to be true, but I just thought I'd say something.

I know I've already said that I believed JJJ was town, I just feel it is getting harder and harder to believe that.

Yeah sure, but there's no real evidence that JJJ could be wolf, not yet at least.

All things considered, I'm not going to believe anything.

I liked the first post by Simon, the second not so much.

It’s hard to tell if this is a legitimate civ thought or TMI waffling.

Also besides these two posts I don’t see much content yet.

I’d probably peg Simon as Null with a slight mafia lean. I’d like more content and wouldn’t vote here right now.

[sig]

There’s not enough content from AS yet to make a read.


I’d think unless we’ve got a super inactive mafia team they’d be coaching her a bit more though so that might be a good look for her?

I’ll probably defer to Epi on this one for this phase, unless I see some major red flags in his ISO

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I checked to determine if there's a reason for Wilgy to kill Scotty. Scotty's final read was that Wilgy was town, however, that only came after some conflict:

Spoiler: show

ok

So someone tell me why Wilgy is town

ok

So someone tell me why Wilgy is town

nerd, tell me why half the cast here is town

I tend to view from the glass half empty lens.

I think you seem scummy. harder for me to equate that with thinking others are towny.

But working on it.

I don’t get any good ninja vibes from you

EH, in Wolfwalkers W Scotty was just 'in sync with me' and I see nothing immediate in likeness.

That may be a better description, yes. He wasn't exactly "schmoozy" in Ted Lasso as much as he promoted my view of the game and strategic approach (i.e., he was "in sync with me"). Perhaps it's not quite the same.

Who knows, man

Imagine a world where I’m always town.

Fixed it for you.



In other news, Wilgy’s single potshot posts are assuaging my concern. A part of me wonders if he’s just doing it to appear towny after I called attention to him, but I guess I’m feeling better.

[VOTE: sig] aubergine

Viable enough.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

There’s not enough content from AS yet to make a read.


I’d think unless we’ve got a super inactive mafia team they’d be coaching her a bit more though so that might be a good look for her?

I’ll probably defer to Epi on this one for this phase, unless I see some major red flags in his ISO

Fair. I could put her in the yellow instead of the orange pile in that previous rainbow. Not terribly different from LoRab.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

If I die, don’t vote out sig. Resist that inevitable urge deep in your belly to vote for sig. sig became obvious town in the last hour.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

That is a huge development, because finally it feels possible to solve the game with process of elimination. My previous rainbow allows for a clean POE split (if we treat Kagemusha as a presumed civilian, and at this point -- fine).

motobot, Simon, and sig --> I am perfectly fine with all three. They can be civilians. Moving on.
Epignosis and TonyStarkPrime --> While I could case them if I wanted to, I don't feel it. I think they're fine.

Everyone else is in the POE, and if all the mafia are among those five (Long Con, falcon45ca, LoRab, Abigail Sophia, and DrWilgy), it's a game-winning solution.

For all my whining, that's not a terrible place to be right now. So if people have serious grievances with that POE pool, or with my town reads, please voice them as soon as possible. I would also love feedback about my DrWilgy suspicion. It'd be nice to let him answer first, but we're running out of time in Day 2. Let's just talk it all over.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

One thing I find a little suspicious about Abigail Sophia is that she hasn't quite gotten involved with everyone else's assessments of me. She made one comment:

Another out of expectation (OoE) is PrincessAbbi. Those 4 posts don’t say much, and not to use the participation card but it’s not what I expect from her

This is the first game I've played where my father hasn't spoken for me (I think) so I'm not used to checking on the conversation

I….uh…sorry, I was talking about the other Abbi and until you just posted I didn’t even know there was another Abbi in this game

But you both can be princesses if you want. I’d prob just call you Princess Sophia for clarification though

How do you do? What’s your read on…say, me, or JJJ right now?

Sorry I thought you were talking about me because PA hadn't posted yet

I haven't seen any reason to think of you as bad...I did at one point consider voting JJJ but I think he's in the clear (for now)

I don't quite know why I was "in the clear", and I find that read a little dubious. A big reason I have viewed motobot and Simon as civilians is that they have responded to my vast activity in a believable way. They've found some things suspicious, and they've found some things better than that. They seem like they're trying to find their way, and given my turbulence I am not surprised that right now their votes are on me. Abigail Sophia hasn't quite put herself on the line in the same way, and I think it might suggest she knows I am town.

I am not certain about any of that, but it's on my mind.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Spoiler: show

Day 2 Blind Assocations



Yellow - I have no good reason to say they're not mafia together.
Green - I doubt they're mafia together.

This may have some purpose now. My POE pool of five was, once again: Long Con, falcon45ca, LoRab, Abigail Sophia, and DrWilgy. With that in mind, given the blind association chart above, the following teams are viable:

Long Con, falcon45ca, LoRab
Long Con, falcon45ca, Abigail Sophia
Long Con, LoRab, Abigail Sophia
Long Con, LoRab, DrWilgy
Long Con, Abigail Sophia, DrWilgy
falcon45ca, LoRab, Abigail Sophia
LoRab, Abigail Sophia, DrWilgy

I believe that covers them all from the chart. The one interaction that most helps to eliminate prospective teams is that I don't think DrWilgy and falcon45ca fit together well.

Total team fits:

Long Con - 5
Abigail Sophia - 5
LoRab - 5
DrWilgy - 3
falcon45ca - 3

These rankings shouldn't necessarily dictate the vote, because the "5" scores are largely products of the chart being a giant ball of yellow.

I acknowledge that this analysis demands that the POE pool of five I presented be correct. If it isn't, my first guess would be Tony just by way of Wilgy association. But that only means anything if Wilgy flips mafia (and not even necessarily then).

[JaggedJimmyJay]

See how much I change when you give me even one new town read?

[LoRab]

falcon45ca
motobot
DrWilgy
Abigail Sophia
LoRab
Simon
TonyStarkPrime
sig
Long Con
JaggedJimmyJay
Epignosis

Is there meaning to your colors here? Or is it just pretty…

Your primitive tongue could not pronounce those meanings.

It's probably a system only he understands. But the real question is, why would he even post this if that were the case?

If it is even a system. I think he just picked colors at random!!

[LoRab]

[VOTE: LoRab] aubergine just as a placeholder for now.

I shouldn't even be playing. I'm still working.

Harumph.

[LoRab]

To be clear, sig posted this before that:

The scotty kill is odd, I’ll need to do an NKA of them though.

I don’t recall a single post by PA, however both Epi and Jay reasoning mirror the game that just ended where she was civ and also misvoted fairly early I think. (I died D2 and stopped paying attention, but we won so GoC 2024 here I come )

However, given that it looks like sig was copying notes from Night 1 (in the content you referenced), your point may stand. We're forced to take that or leave it, but I don't object at this point.

Oh, okay then. Jesus. Turning 40 sucks.

Wait until 50.

[LoRab]

[VOTE: lorab] aubergine @LoRab Who else is on your team?

Any particular reason you’re voting me?

And anyone who is a civvie is on my team.

[LoRab]

I’ve had “reads”. They’re of low quality. I’ve been opem about that.

For example: you’ve just voted for LoRab. Does that vote gove you confidence? Do you believe in that vote?

I am confident that either Lorab will engage, which is why I tagged them...






Or they won't. In which case I'm more than happy to see them flip

If you read my posts, you’ll see I was working pretty much the entirety of the weekend, which is why I didn’t post much. You can also see that I’ve been engaging as I catch up from Jewish holiday madness. But happy to engage with you if you give me something to engage about.

Also, she/her. (I have no issue being called they, and appreciate people not assuming gender, but in case you were wondering)

[LoRab]

Current thoughts:

I’m of 2 minds on LC, because I read him wrong last game. But he has been pingy. Especially using the FEB emoji. So, not voting him for now, but keeping an eyeball there.

I do suspect Wilgy. His posts feel like he’s faking himself, if that makes sense. Like, he’s trying too hard to sound like civ wilgy…his tone just feels off. For the moment, I am voting there. Open to changing, but definitely suspecting.

[VOTE: wilgy ] aubergine

Also, voting someone with a vote already because self preservation, and I know I am civ.

@Epignosis why did you placeholder your vote on me?

Also, part of my challenge this came is that I’m still not at all used to closed games. So, I’m still doing some brain wrapping around. Working on it.

But first, a nap. Because this weekend was wonderful and exhausting. Mostly exhausting.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

LoRab is probably town too. The game is rapidly improving.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

For those seeking an explanation: LoRab's immediate involvement just now is a very close reflection of her play in Ted Lasso Mafia (town) when she was able to get involved. Link to her posts in that game

If I just allow myself to accept LoRab as civilian, if only for now, that eliminates numerous teams from my previous analysis. I'd be left with:

Long Con, falcon45ca, Abigail Sophia
Long Con, Abigail Sophia, DrWilgy

LC and AS would be locked in as mafia, and the Wilgy/falcon split would determine the game.

Now, I am not quite confident enough in all of this to just say "that's it!" and call it a day. But I feel more of a spark of Mafia life than I have at any previous juncture. I'd love some immediate takes on LoRab and sig in particular, because if they're town the game immediately moves into "easily solvable" territory.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Let's also please make an effort to avoid the final portion of this day phase drifting onward aimlessly to nothingness. We only have six more hours, and as of right now I am dead. That could easily be game-losing if people are too silent or turbulent after I'm gone.

[sig]

I agree on Lorab, I like her content so far, it screams old school TS townie.

I also give her civ points for her take on the third party. Back in the day third parties were always more anti town than positive.

[sig]

[VOTE: Wilgy] aubergine

I’m a bit torn about this vote, I think the points against him are strong and I’m not going to vote for Lorab.

That would leave JJJ or a useless vote.

While I did and honestly still do have some suspicion on Jay, he is being very active in a towny way right now and I do think hes solving very genuinely.

Now having said that he could also be a wolf who wasn’t motivated and then pulled it together. Either way I’m comfortable giving him another phase.

I still need to read him, LC, and Epi over. I’m also still thinking LC or JJJ are mafia.

[sig]

Plus I like tying up the game makes it more interesting

[Long Con]

I would be completely satisfied with starting a town core of JJJ, Long Con, and Epignosis. If you guys want to take the risk together.

At least for the time being, I would be fine with giving that a trial run and seeing what turns up.

Solid. It's good to know I have someone I can trust that reciprocates my trust.

[Long Con]

[VOTE: Wilgy] aubergine

I’m a bit torn about this vote, I think the points against him are strong and I’m not going to vote for Lorab.

That would leave JJJ or a useless vote.

While I did and honestly still do have some suspicion on Jay, he is being very active in a towny way right now and I do think hes solving very genuinely.

Now having said that he could also be a wolf who wasn’t motivated and then pulled it together. Either way I’m comfortable giving him another phase.

I still need to read him, LC, and Epi over. I’m also still thinking LC or JJJ are mafia.

When was JJJ not motivated?

[sig]

[VOTE: Wilgy] aubergine

I’m a bit torn about this vote, I think the points against him are strong and I’m not going to vote for Lorab.

That would leave JJJ or a useless vote.

While I did and honestly still do have some suspicion on Jay, he is being very active in a towny way right now and I do think hes solving very genuinely.

Now having said that he could also be a wolf who wasn’t motivated and then pulled it together. Either way I’m comfortable giving him another phase.

I still need to read him, LC, and Epi over. I’m also still thinking LC or JJJ are mafia.

When was JJJ not motivated?

I’d say for a portion of day 1 and maybe the beginning of day 2 he lacked that like towny energy?

He seemed demotivated, not as active, and very I guess negative for where we were at in the game.

[Long Con]

[VOTE: Wilgy] aubergine

I’m a bit torn about this vote, I think the points against him are strong and I’m not going to vote for Lorab.

That would leave JJJ or a useless vote.

While I did and honestly still do have some suspicion on Jay, he is being very active in a towny way right now and I do think hes solving very genuinely.

Now having said that he could also be a wolf who wasn’t motivated and then pulled it together. Either way I’m comfortable giving him another phase.

I still need to read him, LC, and Epi over. I’m also still thinking LC or JJJ are mafia.

When was JJJ not motivated?

I’d say for a portion of day 1 and maybe the beginning of day 2 he lacked that like towny energy?

He seemed demotivated, not as active, and very I guess negative for where we were at in the game.

I would classify it as "motivated, but frustrated at the lack of OTHERS' motivation". But ok. Do you trust him?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I would be completely satisfied with starting a town core of JJJ, Long Con, and Epignosis. If you guys want to take the risk together.

At least for the time being, I would be fine with giving that a trial run and seeing what turns up.

Solid. It's good to know I have someone I can trust that reciprocates my trust.

I’m sure you don’t expect me to just take that to the bank. Anyway, I said I am not sure and will still listen to everything you have to say. My top suspect in isolation is DrWilgy.

[TonyStarkPrime]

Vote Abi 2

[Long Con]

No, it's my bad. I'm rarely ever in the town core and I think I just thought it meant something different.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

@DrWilgy

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I hope there aren’t any damned silencers.

[Long Con]

Who is not posted yet?