This is the bar llama claims to set for himself:
thellama73 wrote:The proper way to investigate is this:
1. Collect all available facts.
2. Construct a theory that explains all available facts.
What too many people in this game do is this:
1. Construct a theory.
2. Collect/invent facts that support that theory.
You guys are free to disagree with me, but you're wrong, and I'm going to continue saying you're wrong.
It is, as he also said, his Sherlock Holmes method of playing the game.
So, lets apply what he claims to do, to what he does.
thellama73 wrote:Ricochet wrote:
The player who accuses me of pondering too much on my voting option and being tactical about it (even if I was consistent in deciding to reflect more on it, but he's not the kind of player to care for such details, anyway) is someone who started the game by saying he'll wait for more opinions, waited a whooping 13 minutes, then simply voted for what he wanted anyway (or went along with DH's explanations), only for the rest of D0 to have more and more doubts, especially after hearing reasonings from boo, SVS or Epignosis.
No need to be coy. You can call me out by name.
As Rico said, llama wanted to vote an option, waited 13 minutes, and then voted for it. llama makes no claim that that is not true.
Did llama collect all available facts and then construct a theory based on all available facts? No, he did not. Is that something we're going to continue to see from llama throughout the rest of the game, despite his claim that that is not only not how he plays the game, but the wrong way to play the game? Yes we are.
This is his very next post:
thellama73 wrote:S~V~S wrote:I get up about 4:30 so yeah.
And yes, re the approach. Llama and I tradionally disagree about that. I have gone after him hard for being anti speculation (read: discussion) in the past. That was why I never bought into his Vomps case although I took flack for it; I could see him being energized and thus more involved via the theme.
But much as I don't like it, I have come to accept that this is his normal, and how the game is fun for him.
I'm not anti-discussion. I just don't see why I have to consider all lines of discussion equally productive.
Anti-discussion or not isn't what I want to point out. Considering all lines of discussion is. He chose the option he wanted to vote for, and then, without even considering all lines of discussion, he voted. Whether he felt at that time they were equally productive is not relevant. How do I know that? I go back a few posts, and there is this:
thellama73 wrote:I'm increasingly starting to think Epi and SVS are right. I thought it would be fun to try a new mechanic, unless L is very good, we could be in serious trouble.
After voting during D0 for the L/Light option, after reading more of the discussion, he realizes that the people on the otherside could be right, and that the option he voted for could put us in very serious trouble. Guess what I'm going to ask. Did llama collect all the facts, and then construct his theory. Obviously he did not.
Now, I'd call this flip-flopping, and it's worse, because he did after making his choice.
But what does he do after flip-flopping? That's right, he calls out someone else for doing it. Now, yes, TH went back and forth a lot. You know the one obvious difference? TH was doing it as part of an on going discussion, to decide where he would vote. Was TH collecting facts? Yes. Was he looking to theorize based on those facts? Yes. Hmm, so doing what llama claims is the right way to play the game makes TH a baddie according to llama.
That is this post, which I am not going to quote, since I imagine most people recall it anyways. But by all means, go back and read it for yourself.
And now we're only really getting into D1 llama. And so far, I've skipped almost all of his posts (I suppose presidential memes, other jokes, and talking about the show a bit could be relevant facts, but somehow, I'm not seeing it).
Ok, here's a good one:
thellama73 wrote:Yeah, I did flip flop, because I was convinced (mainly by Epi) that a normal lynch was better. But I didn't keep flipping back and forth after I changed my mind.

Not being a part of a discussion, and not taking the facts into account until after you've made your decision, is apparently a good thing because it means you didn't change your mind as much. I'm not sure there's any other way to look at this than discussion-squashing.
Then this post:
thellama73 wrote:I know I always think Rico is bad, but he is on my list too, Epi. The way he hovered around to wait and see which way the winds were blowing before placing his vote stood out to me.
Again, being a part of a discussion, GATHERING FACTS, is apparently worse than making up your mind and choosing it without being a part of the discussion, and then later changing your mind when you cannot do anything about it.
Then:
thellama73 wrote:Okay, you guys don't think confirmation bias is a problem in mafia. I do. Let's leave it at that. [snipped some stuff]
He simplified other peoples views as being confirmation bias, and decided he should squash the discussion. I wonder where else we've seen llama do that this game? Don't worry, we'll get there.
Ok, we are now past some of the first posts I pulled up to establish the basis. There's still probably about 100-ish posts left at least, so go get a drink and come back ready, cause that shit was probably just the prologue.
Want to see something amazing?
thellama73 wrote:FZ. wrote:
Are you suggesting he's a baddie? Why would a baddie be that indecisive? What does he get out of it? And if not, what's the point in even bringing it up apart from appearing like you're baddie hunting?
It's the classic "have it both ways" baddie approach. "Oh look how reasonable I am. I'm listening to everyone. I'm taking all opinion into account. You all have good points!" Refusing to take a stand. Trying to please everyone. I think it is shifty, yes.
llama talks about a classic baddie approach. What has llama been doing so far this game? Using that classic baddie approach. And attacking people who have been using (according to him) that classic baddie approach.
Just another example of not worrying about the facts and speculating, which according to llama, llama thinks is the wrong way to play the game:
thellama73 wrote:If Turnip Head is right and Russ isn't posting because he's a Shinigami, there should be three people not posting. That hasn't been the case. It also seems like way too big of a clue for MP to give us, since two of the three Shinigami are on the mafia team.
Guess llama thinks llama is playing the game wrong.
There are several posts I'm skipping over for a moment (we've reached the 50 post mark), and then we get to llama's D1 vote for TH. It's just for the earlier flip-flopping post, and a no-u, as seen here:
thellama73 wrote:Turnip Head wrote:Llama seems a bit off. I might vote for him.
Right back at ya, there Champ.
He follows through with that vote.
Now, that may seem reasonable. However, lets look at some posts I skipped:
thellama73 wrote:AceofSpaces wrote:thellama73 wrote:DharmaHelper wrote:So, from this wellspring of discussion and suspicion and theories and back and forths, you come away wanting to vote for a low poster?

What's suspicious about that? It seems very sensible to me. I have personally found all the verbose squabbling very unproductive.
What would you find productive?
I'll know it when I see it.
I've found posts from most people other than Epi and DH pretty productive.
llama was ok with voting a low poster, because the discussion so far was 'very unproductive'. So, instead of knowing what he'd see when he sees it (gathering facts), and then using that come up with a theory and vote on it, or at least allow that opportunity to occur, llama waits a few hours, and votes for TH. Far before the lynch is near over. In 2 votes, llama has failed to allow for as much fact-gathering as possible, and voted because it's what he decided he was going to do, without the facts being important to the vote. Just some more inconsistency I find interesting.
The next morning, we have the start of the Snowman stuff:
thellama73 wrote:Snowman wrote:Thank you Zomberella and SVS. I have no idea if either of you are bad or not, but you boiled down your take on all the players in one post, and I appreciate it. I frankly don't have the time to comb through a couple hundred episodes of "Trice Yells at Everyone" every day. I'll offer my insight and contribute what I can, but I don't see the "discussion" coalescing around anyone in particular. All I see is argument ad nauseum around the D0 poll.
I'm happy to see so many involved, but how do you find so much to talk about when literally nothing has happened yet? The most earth-shattering event so far is the realization that Russ hasn't posted anything.
Waiting for a bandwagon to hop onto?

I'm sure we're all familiar with this post at this point, but I thought I'd include it just in case someone needs a refresher. An honest one that hasn't been spun and lied about.
I've skipped a bunch of posts again, to bring up this one:
thellama73 wrote:juliets wrote:
I am about to re-read Trice because in the discussions so far he sticks out to me. llama, I think someone may have mentioned this but TH changing his mind so much does not sound like a baddie thing to me. I think a baddie would be more sure of his opinion.
I think baddies like to try to have things both ways, but a diversity of opinion enriches us all!

This is still during day 1 in case you were wondering. I just found this post interesting, no more commentary on it, but I think at this point you can figure out what I think about it.
Alright, this post:
thellama73 wrote:For anyone considering joining me in my vote for TH, let the record show that he has said 1) he thinks Russ is likely a baddie; 2) he doesn't want Russ to be lynched "until there can be no doubt"; 3) Russ' behavior tomorrow will fail to remove all doubt.
Essentially, he want to leave someone he thinks is bad alive indefinitely.
Followed by:
thellama73 wrote:Turnip Head wrote:I believe Epi is wrong about what role Russ might be. I think he's much more likely to be this one, because of the part I underlined:
MovingPictures07 wrote:Teru Mikami (X Kira) – As a devoted worshiper of Kira, Mikami has a strong sense of justice and feels evil absolutely must be punished. He adheres to a very strict, daily schedule. (Secrets)
That said, I am not inclined to see Russ lynched on Day 1. I want to see what he will do on other days! Will he have to post in rainbow font on Day 2? Will he have to include the word "poop" in every sentence? We should continue to observe his behavior until we can be absolutely sure. It's how L would want us to proceed.
So you think Russ is likely to be a Kira and you don't want to lynch him? Seriously?
TH says 'I think he's much more likely to be', llama apparently must read TH as saying, 'He has to be this one', or chooses to ignore that TH just wants to see what Russ has to do in the future before deciding if he's right. So, this is more spinning and dishonesty from llama, and I think it was intentional.
Alright, this one. I'm more interested in what FZ had to say about llama than how llama actually responded:
thellama73 wrote:FZ. wrote:
Crazy enough, I'm actually contemplating voting for llama. I don't feel like he's his usual self. I feel like he knows TH's reason for voting him can't be true baddie TH, because he wouldn't do that, yet he's going after him and trying to find something to justify it with. I also don't think that TH's indecisiveness regarding the D0 vote was fishy in any way, and I don't think llama really thought it was either.
Something about how llama is playing strikes me as not genuine
So you think it's totally cool that TH openly doesn't want to lynch baddies, and my pointing that out is not genuine. Good to know.
The emphasis is mine, and is what is important here. This is after llama has made the find fact, make theory to support fact post. FZ calls him out on not doing that. If that belief is so important to llama, if he truly believes that's how an honest civ should play the game, and if llama is a civ in this game, then why is llama not making any effort to address that point in this post? Think on it.
Now, people may not remember this next part. I quite like it. I'm not going to quote it, but please do go and read it,
it's here. llama turns around, and right after taking some suspicion from FZ, turns around, builds a case against her (based almost entirely around her discussing TH), and then tries to play if all off by saying no one is buying what she is selling.
I have skipped posts again. Most of what I skipped was one sentence posts about FZ, and his PSA.
thellama73 wrote:bea wrote:thellama73 wrote:I might as well reciprocate while I'm here. I laid out my suspicion of TH earlier, and I maintain it.
*Votes Turnip Head*
llama- I missed your reasoning the first time around. Was it that he was wishy-washy with the day 0 vote? If you re-summed it between here and the end of the thread, I will catch it. Still reading up.....
At the time of my vote, there were three things that bothered me about TH (there are now four.)
1. Going back and forth and contradicting himself on the Day 0 vote. I felt like he was trying too hard to be reasonable and please everyone, which I think is baddie behavior.
2. When I called him on this, he barely reacted at all, offering no real defense or argument. I have done this many times as a baddie. Ignore a minor suspicion and it's more likely to go away than if you make a big thing of it.
3. He voted for me with no real reason. I assume the reason is that I am onto him and he wants to stop me knowing my reputation for leading lynches (even if I end up being wrong a lot, I am good at attracting followers as we saw in Film Director).
Now, 4. He basically admitted that he doesn't want to lynch a suspected baddie, which is crazy.
This is llama summing up his TH suspicion.
1. llama did that. llama did it after already voting, so unlike TH, he wasn't even an actual part of the conversation, he was just trying to please everyone.
2. When people have called llama on things, his reaction so far has been to try and blow them off, or no-u them. He says he has done this many times as a baddie. I agree.
3. llama has voted without real reasons.
4. That isn't what TH said, and is llama spinning things to make someone he has decided it bad seem more bad and take votes.
thellama73 wrote:Zomberella12 wrote:I'm here. Reading posts from today.
@Llama, so I think my assessment of your posting was based on length not number. I'm gonna have to reassess how I assess. Anyway, not voting for you today.
Brevity is the soul of wit, quoth the Bard.
I suppose that means he and I are both witless.
Not many Night 1 posts I want to bring up, but there is this one:
thellama73 wrote:I think the FZ case is interesting. She stated she was thinking about voting for me and I hit her back hard. After that, she immediately backed off, which is not what I expected her to do. She's definitely someone I want to look at more going into Day 2.
He makes it sound like it isn't his case. Then he says hitting her back hard is the same thing as a case, then he says he want to look at her more during Day 2.
Then this:
thellama73 wrote:I just have a hard time believing that MP would give a baddie a role that would be so easy to detect by not being able to post.
I guess when llama does it isn't baseless speculation?
And here's why the previous FZ comment is relevant:
thellama73 wrote:I know who I'm voting for on Day 2 now. Spoiler alert: it's not FZ.
The time between the two posts was a few hours, the posts within the two are not helpful for discerning who llama is now going to be voting for, but he already knows. I'd bring up the fact-theory thing again, but it's just getting old at this point.
Then he establishes who he meant when he said he knows who he is voting for:
thellama73 wrote:Turnip Head wrote:I definitely considered that the Eye deal could be in the game but didn't want to upset Llama by wildly speculating.
Why do you care whether you upset me? You shouldn't.
Welcome Russ!
I'm going to join the early voting crowd and vote Snowman, who I think is very, very bad.
Challenged on the vote:
thellama73 wrote:bea wrote:why do you think snowman is very very bad llama?
His earlier comment about waiting for a consensus to emerge before voting, his humorous deflection when I called him on it, and his layig quite low indeed for this whole game. I feel very good about this vote.
He adds nothing new to why he thinks he's bad, but during the night, he apparently got information that he felt no need to conceal his receiving of, that made him decide to vote for Snowman. Or he just doesn't care who he votes for and thought he found someone he could start an easier bandwagon on than FZ and swapped to that.
Now, I know what you're thinking. I left out the consideration of llama's vote being forced. You a damn fool.
thellama73 wrote:Long Con wrote:Is there a vote-forcer in the roles? I don't think TH and Llama are forced-votes.
If my vote were forced, I would never cast it early to signal that it was forced. Bad form.
Whether casting it early or not is true, talking about the possibility of your vote being forced when your vote is being forced IS bad form, and often against the rules when your vote is forced.
And now we're nearing the end, where llama spins things I say and outright lies.
This is the tl:dr of that conversation, for anyone who wants it as simple as possible:
thellama73 wrote:boo wrote:thellama73 wrote:Boo, you said that Snowman hasn't had a chance to defend himself. I disagree. It has been more than 24 hours since the Day has started.
How long do you consider to be an adequate "chance to defend oneself" before you would be comfortable voting for someone (not necessarily Snowman)?
A reasonable person would wait until they have to actually vote or risk missing the vote before deciding the person isn't going to respond.
So your contention is that Snowman "has not had the chance to respond" until the very moment of the poll closing? Surely you can see that this is madness.
I said a reasonable person waits until they need to vote before voting. llama takes that to mean every single person can wait until the poll closes to vote, and that I am saying they must do so. I know llama knows that isn't what I said. I think llama is bad, not because he was wrong this one time, but that he then began trying to use this situation to get me on tilt, which is why the rest of our discussion happened.
As for the rest of, you can go ahead and read the first page of in topic (and probably some of the 2nd since llama will be undoubtedly continuing to post), but I think it's recent enough that I don't need to pull more quotes, and that first post from it really sums it all up for me.
And that is why you should vote to lynch llama.