Lot wrote:What do I get from this?
Jacob and Isaac look really very very very bad, to me. Both of their day one and day three votes both feel like they came at critical junctures. Day two and four, days when Uzz was less under pressure, neither of them voted at all. I'd gladly see us take out these two the next two days, and feel like we could comfortably say there is a high chance that each of them is heathen.
Ruth's votes came at slightly less critical junctures but day three especially was still critical enough (day one would need to be more along the lines of lynch switch protection) and then her vote for Uzz on day four could be an intentional distancing tactic, coming as it did so late.
Deborah's votes are slightly less suspicious than Ruth's, but she could definitely still be bad, especially days three and five look a bit that way.
Absalom, to me, his voting record speaks to the fact he is definitely not heathen. Mordecai and Jonathan's voting patterns also seem fairly unlikely for heathen.
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By no means is Jephthah's record terrible, but it isn't clean. Day three could conceivably be a save on Uzz, Day one was an irrelevant vote and directly contradicts Jeph's 'I only want to vote a way that is meaningful' stance on day four. I think my view on Jeph might come back to a reread.
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TL; DR...
Jacob and Isaac are probably heathen. Ruth and Deborah could be, worth a reread.
JACOB:
He honestly looks the worst out of this group you bring up, Lot. He mirrored Jonathan's ultimatum on Samson speaking or else getting a vote and his vote gave Samson a 2-vote lead. His lack of a vote Day 2 stinks because it would help fill things in a bit more. His statement D3 about Uzz being too easy certainly stands out the day after we stoned him and he flipped Heathen. Oddly though, he shows some civ nature in not wanting to vote Job b/c he wasn't around. His N4 post about "oops, I missed the vote but would have voted for the #2 guy" is convenient after lynching a civ but he was agreeing with Abs & Nic's case on me prior to the deadline. The his story changes quite a bit D5 where he starts out only thinking Rachel stands out, but goes on to be wary of Jeph and later even Uzz (not sure what Uzz's vote count was like at this point). Then he misses another vote (his 3rd miss). He is a little all over the place but he's only got two votes to his name which makes it hard to say for sure that he looks bad.
ISAAC:
Isaac's posts sound worse than his votes look, I think. He was only the third one in on Samson, missed D2's vote, wasn't even involved with Mary's train, and missed D4's vote. The worst he looks is D5 when Uzz is on the line. He jumps on Uzz's comment about Pilate being bad and says latish about not feeling good about Uzz's pending lynch. I don't see much in the votes unless he strategically skipped votes but that's impossible to prove. You may need to convince me more about this one.
RUTH:
Is your suspicion based on her late vote for Cain (perhaps helping to solidify him as leftovers for D2) and her late Mary vote D3 to help solidify her fate? Other than that, her D4 and D5 votes seem okay to me. I'm pretty neutral on her because she's been inquisitive but not too chatty. She's also been able to defend some of her choices fairly well.
DEBORAH:
She gives Cain his first vote D1, gives him a 2-vote lead D2, gives Mary a 2-vote lead D3, self-votes D4, and votes "off-topic" to nudge another player D5. To me, her votes are stinky stinky stinky. I may be biased by all the "sorry, catching up" posts she made Days 1-4. She came into her own D5 with some posts but found most everyone civ or neutral. She pegged Bathsheba, Lazarus, and Malchus as shifty or outright bad. Those aren't bad names but they're also fairly safe names to lists as sus. I'm keeping my eye on her still,
ABSALOM:
I agree with you on Absalom. He's looking mighty solid with his vote history. He sticks to his guns and has done some good theorizing. Even though he had it in for me, I agree that he's Horseman at worst. I thought I was reading some chummy behavior between him and Nicodemus since Day 1, which had me wondering if they were teammates but Nic's death and Abs's swift action on Uzz seem to rule out Heathen altogether.
JEPHTHAH:
Man, I just don't know. Half the time I find myself thinking he's right on and I like him. The other half of the time I just wonder a little. I don't feel as bad about him as you do, Lot. I'll have to go through some of his posts again. I do agree with him that there could be something going on with Mordecai. His vote came after Uzz received his 2nd and I think it marks the Pivot in Day 1. I'll have to go back and see how long people had been castigating Cain before he voted.
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Not sure where the suspicion of Rachel comes from aside from Job's mysterious vote for her. I've wavered on her from time to time but I can't help but come back around to her being more good than bad.
On a totally random note, does anyone else feel that Rachel's avatar has a unique sexiness to it? No idea why that stands out to me but it's there.
Belshazzar wrote:Balaam, I think your general scan of the players' reads and votes should normally be correlated with their reads and votes on Uzziah specifically. This is something I might pursue. Just from a quick glance, the Day 3 vote presents the greatest possible shift from the opportunity to lynch Uzziah to Mary ending up lynched - how can it not be after all, Uzziah was basically leading wagon for a while, ending up second wagon, albeit at a few votes' distance.
You're half right. We should analyze posts and votes with Uzziah's Heathen nature in mind but it's not just the shift away from Uzz but the Push on other players, like Cain D1, Job and Laz D3, and me on D4. So far the Heathens have been able to choose between two different civvies each day to keep Uzziah alive- one civ that gets lynched and another to set up for the next day.
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Looks like we need to get a ruler for Lot, Jeph, and Isaac. :P