[END] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)

[Ricochet]

RIP Fuzz

So is Drugs dead? They had N10, could have drugged someone and yet Drugs didn't made the kill, implying there was no drugged person to kill...ergo no Drugs alive?

Also, despite the fortunate failed second kill, I am reaching maximum pissed off mood in principle in regards to Psycho Killer being able to kill twice, then once, then twice and so on, at this bloody stage in the game. As I've said back on D11, it's a maximum of three victims during an interval in which we civvies can only aspire to lynch one baddie. Extend that N9 through N11 and Psycho Killer's maximum would have been six victims, whilst our maximum would have been two. Abominable.

[Ricochet]

Actually derp on math, PK's maximum would have been five*

[Ricochet]

No one's missing from the poll. River either abstained or he's gone.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Very good chance Marsh is bad. Will expand later. #legacyofstrawhenge

[Russtifinko]

Thanks, all! I'm very very excited.

So I went back to read Wilgy expecting to basically see a whole lot of nothing. My gut read of him said it was a guy who tried really hard to start the game (see: ACEO campaign) and has been dropping off steadily since. I was pleasantly surprised, though. He's contributed a lot more substantive content than I thought.

I do see a few points against him, most of which have been brought up already:
- As Diiny mentioned (yesterday?), he has been fairly floppy floppy on RadicalFuzz, even though they read each other well.
- He was mentioned a lot by baddies (JJJ covered this in his scum spew analysis).
- He has posted large graphs and charts with little analysis to accompany them. (A number of people have discussed this already.)

Things I personally don't like are his declining contributions the past Day period or two, and the fact that he keeps asking people to infodump. I'm given to understand that info is cool on RYM, but RadicalFuzz has said that Wilgy knows the rules here. He seems determined to stretch them to their limit.

I actually feel moderately positive on Wilgy now, despite the shade he's getting. I don't really see him as a super likely SK either, since he's taken enough hard stances (Choutas and bcornett) to get some negative attention.

The case against him has been about things that other people have said (MacDougall mainly), not what he's said.

That is what I have gathered.

Yeah, you're right on that. I'm not ignoring those points, but they've already been discussed. I do best finding baddies through players' gameplay, so I'm adding my thoughts to that discussion.

Wilgy if you think I'm scum why did you save me? You had an emphatic defense of me. Why?

That wasn't a scumdoodle placement. The formatting was a garbo mobile attempt though.

JJJ
Bullzeye
Fuzz

Everyone else I haven't had time to look into recently, nor do I have any strong opinion.

Wilgy, come on. You have reads on 3 of 9 possible players, two of whom are dead now, so your only remaining read is that JJJ is the SK? You say you're trying, but I find it hard to buy when I read this drivel.

How do you know it's a misconception?????

I am confused as to how serious this is, but I'll attempt to answer it.

I know it's a misconception because I know that I don't necessarily read Wilgy that well and have said as much. Other people are saying that I do read Wilgy extremely well. That's not true, therefore a misconception? It's wrong, either way, is my point. We play off each other very well, yes, but interestingly enough that doesn't include the ability to read him, at least from my end.

Ugh I wish you wren't dead! If you can't read Wilgy that well, why go after him relatively hard for such a long period? You had to have seen something to be that confident.

[Russtifinko]

Marsh your last two final votes are just abysmal, why tho?

Because I'm terrible.

Or possibly because he's on a team with motel room....

Seriously, though, is no one at all interested in this? I feel like I've been playing pretty hard the past few days, posting detailed reads and what I felt was a really compelling, in-depth case with this, and I'm just not being engaged on it at all.

What can I do to make you care? Has the analysis just moved so far on that analyzing player behavior is out and I'm just not with the times? Am I presenting my stuff in a way that isn't interesting or convincing? Or is there just a lack of interest in what I say generally?

I'm trying to help but feel like I'm not getting anything done with my posts.

Will analyze Diiny now because I promised I would.

Linki: Oh, JJJ? Interested to hear your thoughts on MM.

[motel room]

woken up specifically on my day off for this.

"woken" up, as opposed to "woke"? Who woke you?

what? Like, I think I know what you're suggesting but I want you type it out and think how dopey it sounds.

Marsh your last two final votes are just abysmal, why tho?

Because I'm terrible.

Or possibly because he's on a team with motel room....

Seriously, though, is no one at all interested in this? I feel like I've been playing pretty hard the past few days, posting detailed reads and what I felt was a really compelling, in-depth case with this, and I'm just not being engaged on it at all.

What can I do to make you care? Has the analysis just moved so far on that analyzing player behavior is out and I'm just not with the times? Am I presenting my stuff in a way that isn't interesting or convincing? Or is there just a lack of interest in what I say generally?

I'm trying to help but feel like I'm not getting anything done with my posts.

Will analyze Diiny now because I promised I would.

Linki: Oh, JJJ? Interested to hear your thoughts on MM.

So I'm on a team with metalmarsh but we both voted the complete opposite ways last two days? Why?

Your one complaint against me that you're driving into the ground is wrong I dont get why you're so fucking adamant against what I said, and if you're genuine (which I guess I'm thinking more and more that you might be cos your frustration seems legit) maybe consider more than just that point cos if you start building team theories around me that shit will not work because I'm just some town guy who said what crossed his mind regarding jjj at that point in time.

And good luck with your proposal.

[Russtifinko]

Anyway, Diiny read: I was surprised that Wilgy had posted more content than I thought, but this Diiny read surprised me even more. I suppose by this point, everyone alive has posted valuable stuff. I previously had Diiny as a strong SK candidate, but now I very much doubt it. I had missed that he was so aggressive starting on Day 1, and a complete read through gives me the sense that he's been stylistically consistent throughout the game. His contribution level has risen and fallen with rl stuff, but he's pretty much stuck to the same tone all game long, and the fact that it's a somewhat confrontational one makes me doubt the SK read.

I'm also not seeing many interactions of any kind with baddies. Not sure if that's a point for or against Diiny, but it at least doesn't trip any alarms for me.

I wouldn't vote for Diiny today.

Linki: motel, my complaint isn't wrong. Lynching civs is not ever a good idea. However, your point is taken: I owe you a case. I'll get it out later tonight. Regarding your point on MM and you voting different ways, it's WIFOM. Seems silly to save teammates just to have everyone figure out that you all voted together and lynch you sequentially.

Thanks!

[motel room]

Well just get ready to be disappointed. I'm probably not changing your mind.

[Diiny]

anti town getting styled on. Catching up etc.

Wilgy for now. I really, really shouldn't have to prod you any more to address those issues raised a good few pages back.

[motel room]

I would also like to stacks-on Wilgy for now.

[Diiny]

I forgot to mention that Diiny's Day 11 final vote was for DrWilgy and not Bullzeye, so that could be a point of interest. Diiny, you should describe in the fullest detail what inspired that move.

Few reasons. I thought they were both likely to be bad, and I didn't want to let the pressure fall off of Wilgy, plus the bullzeye vote was so far ahead I wasn't even concerned about where my vote was. You can see I was fully supportive of the bullzye lynch and questioned him and his wifom towards the end of the day.

Linki Keej, talk to me about Wilgy.

[Diiny]

Well just get ready to be disappointed. I'm probably not changing your mind.

If you're town, it's your job to change his mind. Am I reading this too pessimistically if I'm getting 'I don't want to play anymore' vibes or are you just saying that a case of you won't change any of Russ's existing issues with you?

[motel room]

Fuzz, the posts I quoted were before and during you casting the vote. Like remember Long Con's eventual vote for Sig early on where he had to backpedal the Bea thing and find a more compelling reason to place his final vote? Reminds me of that. Too-heavy display of reasoning.

I wasn't around then and haven't read it. My vote was more complex than a simple "He said X, X is scum talk, lynch him" so that's why I had exposition about my vote. Would you have preferred me gloss over my reasoning?

MM as I've said all game I have done scummy things. Soft defense of Mac, illogical reasons for not voting Floyd, I'm aware of this. There is no defense to what I did, simply put. What could I possibly say that would make me look better with those moves?

Oh damn, my vote for Choutas yesterday looks a lot worse now.

Now you can't accuse me of this because I've already admitted it. :P

Why doesn't this reply have anything to do with the post you're replying to? The WIFOM is one thing but whatwhy, metalmarsh?

Yes your Choutas vote looks bad. Your RadFuxx vote is suss too.

[motel room]

* RadFuzz lol

[motel room]

Well just get ready to be disappointed. I'm probably not changing your mind.

If you're town, it's your job to change his mind. Am I reading this too pessimistically if I'm getting 'I don't want to play anymore' vibes or are you just saying that a case of you won't change any of Russ's existing issues with you?

Nah I'm not giving up defending myself in general, just to him cos my responses fall on deaf ears. I'm also thinking he's less scummy than when he started his crusade so my pushing back was more to see if he would fall apart.

[Diiny]

Oh, cool. I was worried we were going to break a record for wifom

I think MM (whose name I read as Monster Munch every time when abbreviated like that) needs a good look, since I haven't taken one yet. I'm also not forgetting Rico's 'moment' yesterday, which pinged me a good amount.

[Diiny]

Do talk to me about wilgy though.

[Diiny]

No one's missing from the poll. River either abstained or he's gone.

Or targeted fuzz?

[Ricochet]

No one's missing from the poll. River either abstained or he's gone.

Or targeted fuzz?

Huh?

[motel room]

Do talk to me about wilgy though.

Things I don't like:
- the sense of him showing up only when needed, distanced
- his vote on Bullzeye being "for Choutas"
- Mac's push for Wilgy wagon back in the day

Things I do like:
- reading back through his posts some of his theories seem to immediately fall apart - i.e. Choutas and bcornett linked stuff then they die and he's wrong - which seems odd if he were the one pulling the trigger.

[Diiny]

Wilgy on bullzeye before today:

Calls him good in GTHs.

0 explanation on shift from this read offered at any time before his vote or even during his vote. No interaction with bullzeye. Nothing supports this vote. NOTHING.

[Diiny]

Surely those theories could well be short-term plans to push his easy buttons?

[Diiny]

No one's missing from the poll. River either abstained or he's gone.

Or targeted fuzz?

Huh?

He could've targeted fuzz to have been removed from the poll, but it didn't go through.

[Ricochet]

No one's missing from the poll. River either abstained or he's gone.

Or targeted fuzz?

Huh?

He could've targeted fuzz to have been removed from the poll, but it didn't go through.

Ah. Not bad, actually, although it would require quite a decent amount of odds.

It would also make it encouraging to believe one of the two killers was blocked by him.

[Ricochet]

Do talk to me about wilgy though.

Things I don't like:
- the sense of him showing up only when needed, distanced
- his vote on Bullzeye being "for Choutas"
- Mac's push for Wilgy wagon back in the day

Things I do like:
- reading back through his posts some of his theories seem to immediately fall apart - i.e. Choutas and bcornett linked stuff then they die and he's wrong - which seems odd if he were the one pulling the trigger.

Not sure I understand the positive here, could you perhaps rephrase or clarify?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Russ I don't mean to be ignorant of your case against motel room. I understand your suspicion of him, it isn't hard to compile evidence against him (the case looks a lot like a case against me is likely to look. When I did my spew review for him (I think on Day 10), it eased some of my concerns. I'd ask that you find that review and take a look -- you can show me where you disagree. I want to discuss your read on motel room further, but I think this is a necessary starting point.

I can't easily reference it myself on my phone.

[Russtifinko]

Case on motel room (summary first because I decided that's easiest):

My basic points are this:

1) He said it was ok to lynch civs for no reason. ("We know, Russti! Chirssakes shut up about that already!" "Ok, sorry guys, got it. Moving on...")

2) He's had very interesting interactions with the baddies we've gotten. Now I admit, it's far from certain LC was bussed. But if he did ask his team to bus him for credit, who stood to gain more than the guy who put the first vote on him, and then switched off and back on again when it mattered? However, even if you can't buy that, I'll show that motel room said he'd develop a read on BR and never did, defended Mac, and very very softly and consistently defended Floyd. "But he pushed hard for Bullzeye!", you say. Oh, you mean the Bullzeye who decided he didn't want to play any more and asked to be out? I'm saying he went hard after two people who asked to be killed, ignored an inactive teammate, and defended two others very consistently, albeit in different ways.

3) His reactions to points raised against him have, the majority of the time (although to be fair, not all the time), been to dismiss, ridicule, or NO U his case makers, primarily Matt F, sig, and myself.

4) MM's vote two day periods ago killed Choutas, the only confirmed civvie (and, I would argue, the only civvie) on the block that day. It also saved motel from a 1/3 chance of dying (assuming MP randomizes ties, as he has done in the past). You might say this is far-fetched, but keep in mind that there were 11 players alive at this point. As JJJ said, the worst case for us there is 7-3-1, with their kill coming up and at least one from the SK, so that lynch was absolutely huge.

The next day, he asked MM about it, but didn't apply any real pressure or follow up. Then yesterday, MM spent all day trying to get Fuzz dead instead of Bullz. My suspicion is that Fuzz was drugged, and that if even a single civ had joined him, motel would've hopped on and they'd have taken their chances with the SK, knowing the civs were done.

I want to keep this by itself, but post support (lots of it, sorry) coming.

[Russtifinko]

Mac and BR stuff:

Self pres voting wilgy

I'll get on Epi if you go back to voting there.

Not anti wilgy atm. Out of the other 2-vote "wagons" I'd go Diiny or I guess Black Rock.

No one wants to stacks-on Choutas with me? Carn.

Again mentions a large number of people he'd vote over Mac, but without really trying too hard to get anyone to go there. Reads to me like a very soft attempt to save Mac. The Mac save shouldn't be surprising, since he had already said he'd do it, but the sheer number of people he's willing to vote with no case reads wrong to me. Note that he mentions Black Rock despite never having posted that he figured out what the suspicion on her was for, but she seems to be his least favorite of potential candidates.

Then, despite never posting that he even knows what the case against her is, much less agrees with it, he follows JJJ's vote onto BR. About an hour later, he switches to Diiny. I see this as a fall back distancing move.

alrighty, Black Rock

Diiny then

The day of Mac's lynch, though, motel room puts his vote on Choutas before reading the thread. Keep in mind here, he had recently mentioned 4 other players he wanted lynched over Mac, and Choutas wasn't among them. Furthermore, Choutas was the guy he switched to on Day 2 for a time, and he switched because he didn't like Choutas' reasoning on LC, the player motel room originally and finally voted for.

grabbing a coffee, dealing with monday morning waste of time catch up meetings, and reading through what ive missed over the weekend.

oh and voting Choutas

One of his biggest posts to this point, telling everyone how unlikely it is that anyone bussed LC. Makes sure to defend Mac, reiterate how important his vote on LC was, and oh by the way, why would anyone suspect BR? I said I was going to read it, but I guess I forgot.

These elaborate scum bussing strategies that are being put forward, are they common here on the Syndicate? Because while they can happen over on RYM the most common scum strategy is just lay low pretty much. Bussing is rarely organised and generally just a self-preservation technique.

So reading all of this about how Long Con set up this big ol bus seems so far fetched to me. Remembering back to the day he was lynched, he was a contender but not the contender. I'm fairly sure that my return vote on him put him back in the lead and I know I did that from a genuine suspicion of him so I can't really get behind any of these "strategy" scenarios. He may have wanted out and told teammates not to fight it too hard but I really doubt it was a planned bus. My two cents, for the guy who is pretty sure Mac is scum cos of that idea. I still think mac is town.

Black Rock is the next major lynch contender, what's the deal there?

Ok so if LC may have wanted out, but told teammates not to fight it, where are they?

Same question as to Mac: considering that, except for Epig, the b24 had civs and LC on it, if you're saying the mafia wouldn't have planned an LC bus, then where do you see them having gone, in your opinion? We're talking six players here.

I dont know where they are. I dont even know if that happened. I'm just giving my perspective on the whole ordeal. I would guess it was like any other lynch goes - some scum here, some scum there. I'm sure there would have been a scum on the LC lynch wagon, I just dont think it was planned, it seems like a stretch.

Rico brings this up, mentioning that Mac talked along similar lines, and motel says maybe some scum were there, but that he doubts it was planned (implying that early votes to LC couldn't possibly be busses).

[Russtifinko]

Floyd stuff:

My first lack of inclusion was genuinely from stuff going on in my life that was messing with my head. And I will say AGAIN that if you wish to discuss this further, please PM me.

Has anyone PMed you?

No, not about that topic anyway. would you like to be the first?

Oh ok, like just from teammates?

I hope your head's ok now man.

Goes after Floyd for a slip, but backs off pretty quickly. (Mac did this too, by the way.) His later explanation was this:

i did that thing about asking about his PMs and he fell for it but every time I try and do a trap like that in RYM I only get townies who just didnt get what i was insinuating. Also I felt bad after.

Here he pokes Floyd again, but never follows up on it.

Hello Floyd. I see you have your vote on Matt F. ok

Out of Mac or Diiny who do you think should be lynched?

Very soft Floyd defense here, and subtle pushing of 2 confirmed civs and JJJ.

I'm happy to vote seaside or Choutas. I'm happy to see JJJ lynched to remove the doubt but I think he did the same thing I did w/r/t mac. I'm not confident about Floyd because of his lack of content but my gut says he'd flip town.

That's where my head's at just now.

And again, VERY soft but defensive on Floyd.

Zzzzzz...

Voting bcornett.

What about the top lynch contenders?

Right back at you.

I wouldn't mind lynching seaside, but I still believe Jay is mafia.

I'm not sure yet who to pick between JJJ and Floyd when push comes to shove but I would much rather lynch seaside.

Removing either of them has its benefits.

Again, very very lightly calls Floyd on something, but doesn't pursue it.

So, which roles remain at the moment?

why are you interested?

I want to know how many Mafia remain. If I can work out who's scum, I could perhaps put roles on them.

we don't know definitively which roles remain. But you should definitely try that working out who's scum thing.

[Russtifinko]

First really bad look for motel, in my opinion. As you know, he was defending Mac probably the second-hardest of anyone (besides JJJ), and her suggests 4 people he'd rather lynch. 2 confirmed civ, 1 killed by SK, one still alive.

To me the most interesting point about the was that he said he'd analyze the fingers-Roxy-BR debate. He never got around to taking any kind of stance on it before they were modkilled.

Who should we make dead, aokiji?

espers or epi.
To a slightly lesser extent, Diiny or Devin.

You asked before about roxy, fingersplints and black rock? I might make it my business, fluffing around at work this Fri arvo, to figure out what the difference between them is cos I have no reads there at all.

[Russtifinko]

Damn, got my stuff mixed up, that was supposed to go up by the BR stuff. Sorry. There is a lot of material here...

[Russtifinko]

I'm happy to see JJJ lynched to remove the doubt but I think he did the same thing I did w/r/t mac.

I actually feel like JJJ and Floyd will flip town.

Please esplain.

Which part? I wont be surprised if they were both town, but I'm not sold so hard as to defend them and they are both potential distractions now at this point and if not lynched now will probably ride on as lynch contenders until the end of the game is all.

Hopefully you all recognize this by now. motel room says lynching a civ JJJ would be ok, so we can stop debating whether to lynch a civ JJJ. This is when he popped up heavily on my radar. I said Mac did the same thing, and his explanation did not satisfy:

do you see the difference between what I'm suggesting and what Mac was suggesting? Mac thinks lynching Sorsha will leave behind all these clues he's super eager to get into, I'm suggesting lynching JJJ crosses him off the list the end. No more bickering about whether he's scum or town or what because look it's happening again today "JJJ should still be on the table for a lynch", "what do we think about JJJ?" over and over.

[Russtifinko]

"How He Defends" Stuff:

On Day 7, Matt F made a big case against motel. You can read for yourselves since it's long (with motel's responses). He mostly keeps it cool, but there are a few light moments of bringing it back on Matt during. I bring this up because it becomes a trend.

Here Choutas says that motel room has called Choutas scum more than he's called seaside scum, and questions why motel room voted seaside. motel responds that Chou is "twisting shit".

In fairness, I'll note that he had what read to me like a calm and well-reasoned defense from Matt's case here:

Spoiler: show

Ummmm

Day 1

sig
4
motel room (11), JaggedJimmyJay (16), Long Con (21), birdwithteeth11 (26) 11%

Day 2

Long Con
8
Choutas (12), sig (16), seaside (17), DrWilgy (18), motel room (31), bcornett24 (32), JaggedJimmyJay (34), Russtifinko (35) 21%

Day 5

espers
8
Russtifinko (18), motel room (20), JaggedJimmyJay (22), RadicalFuzz (23), Metalmarsh89 (30), Diiny (31), Ricochet (32), Matt F (34) 24%

Day 6

Diiny
6
sig (22), seaside (23), MacDougall (24), motel room (26), Choutas (27), JaggedJimmyJay (28)

Day 7

seaside
8
Epignosis (20), motel room (21), Metalmarsh89 (23), JaggedJimmyJay (24), bcornett24 (25), Russtifinko (26), Diiny (27), Elohcin (28) 29%

*****

Okay so, voting together 5 out of 7 days is one thing. Actively discouraging the lynch of a now confirmed scum on Day 6 is another. Bandwagoning a civilian on Day 7 to avoid lynching a highly suspicious very possible scum...

What's up?

I like that I'm first to vote on all of these at least, because jjj possibly buddying me is flattering. And weirdly enough, if I'm to take notice of this and start badgering jjj more that'll be me playing into your prediction you mentioned a few posts up that the scum team with me on it planned to turn on jjj next day right? So yeah, maybe something's up but also maybe I'm being played by you.

Seaside was more suspicious to me, and others but I can't say if they're genuine, than the other two. I said that. That was my read. Do you not believe my suspicions of him and my reasons?

linki: "What's up?" doesn't feel very genuine or directed at anyone.

I don't know how I feel about jjj, or Diiny. I'm not sure what information, based on seaside's role, made him so certain - maybe you can help Matt? If Drugs is the only vote manipulation role that the scums have, what could seaside have possibly saw that made him so certain it was one of those three? I don't get it.

However, Matt keeps pushing and he gets testy. Lots of sarcasm here, calls Matt "obtuse", and please note the again, SUPER quilty soft Floyd defense at the bottom.

Spoiler: show

You didn't address this (my dusk 0 vote) - it wasn't a question. But anyway, yes those were my votes for a game mechanic I still don't know what they do.

You question a civilian as to why he finds Mac suspicious. - yes
Then brush off his suspicion. (about hostile players or whatever) - yes, because I know mac is a sweary, aggressive player and I've been told I can be one too.

Not related, the Straw stuff should've been in Miscellaneous. Anyway yes you did defend Mac again. Was that your sole defense? Also, I still don't get how you were trying to get Straw to "slip up". It seemed like you were very much against a Mac lynch. - well yeah, that's my defence because I thought he was town. Like, we're gonna get nowhere if you don't fucking stop to consider I might have just thought mac was town.

And the Strawhenge thing, jesus. He even gets it. You're being obtuse.

So you were swayed by the people voting for Long Con, hence you changing your vote to Choutas, but in the end, figured "what the hey to the people vouching for him" ? ? - yes. Thank you for repeating what I said but in question form.

What I was trying to say is that it seemed clear as day to you that Zebra did in fact tell everyone he was Keterman in a post, yet you didn't try to point that out while I was accusing Zebra and Roxy of being partners because of my own mistake missing that post. But I agree, I think I was stretching things here because I really think you're a Mafia and see bad all over you. This segment isn't that important and I concede. - oh ok. Good to know.

Do you think he's good or bad? (about floyd)- if you've read my posts from the end of Day 7 you'll have your answer. Godspeed, Reader F.

I don't know, you got me there. I very much suspect. Seeing as how seaside was civvie, though, I'm still looking at Floyd and 3J. Are you? Who's your top suspect as of now and why? - you also very much suspect me but you're wrong. I'd suspect JJJ moreso than Floyd based on that last post of his lol, but neither of them heavily. I'll be reassessing all that shit tomorrow.

Did you respond to this? (about Sorsha suspicion) - that I was suspicious of Sorsha? No because it wasn't a question. Yes I was suspicious of Sorsha but as I said somewhere already this was mostly a borrowed read from people I trusted as town before my town radar got shot to shit.

What are your current thoughts on Metalmarsh? What does a "potential weak lynch attempt" look like, an example? - I like him a bit better than I did before. It looks like:
"why isn't anyone getting on my wagon here I put all this effort into, it should be considered" minus any actual case or effort (it was an OMGUS vote remember). Sans case.

Are you in a position to file him as a civilian or mafia? What do you think his alignment is? Frankly, you ask him a great question about "teammates" and then never pursue. He just said he's been getting other PM's! Yes, he could mean Roxy's Interrogation E-mail, I got that one too! Maybe he means one of the many PMs between him and Moving Pictures when they're talking about not spamming the thread. You know what would be great? Is if Floyd said as much when questioned. I'm not sure where I currently am on Floyd, but I do think you and 3J are bad. (Floyd again) - Gets to a point when I feel like you haven't read my posts or my opinions. It could be a scum slip up, yes I said yes im saying yes again. If he gets lynched I'm not gonna fucking sweat it. But hey hey get this, if he's not scum your case on him makes him the piss easiest fallguy for a scum to capitalise on, yay or nay? So I'm wary.


I think that's all. I hope you read it.

In response to my point about lynching civs not being ok:

how come there's no jack-off-hand-gesture smilie

I actually missed this before and it's hilarious. However, it shows a dismissive and snide demeanor to cases against him, which he continues going forward and which I most often see as a baddie tell.

In response to a very large case from sig, a major NO U:

If you're interested in my opinion, I don't think you actually feel one way or another about me. You are giving yourself too much wiggle room here saying I'm scummy (seriously, check that last para saying I'm scummy three times in four sentences) but then I might not be. You say that by changing my mind on Diiny you see that as me trying to distance myself from.. mac? Who is my "teammate" in this scenario?

This is weak sig. I'm not buying it.

looks like I fucked up the quoting and its too hard to get right. Putting the responses in yellow.

linki - about a million posts

Why am I so far down your list there?

Beyond the evidence that I think you're aware of and admittedly in some cases you share with me, I think it's what appears to be a recent dive in your enthusiasm. You're making the posts you have to make, but you aren't really moving this thread very much that I can recall. It's like you're going through the motions. That lengthy response to sig is another example -- you're not defending yourself as much as critiquing his analysis.

I don't feel like there's anything to defend against. Out of my vocal opposers sigs case is the laziest, Russ' is the most opportunistic and Matt's is thumb-suckingly narrow minded but I think he's being genuine although he seems to be ignoring my responses.

That enthusiasm thing isn't right though. I'm still in this despite vanishing for weekends. Coming back to a mountain of pages makes it hard to narrow down what to do next. Defend myself is first. Comment on current shit is second I think cos at least then I have a frame of reference for other things and I feel like you get a better sense of instinct when posts are playing out in front of you. After that its a matter of time which is something I don't have a lot to prioritise to mafia anymore. I still enjoy it (and you know I enjoy it most as vanilla town puzzle solver so I think that's where your enthusiasm check is coming from which is fair) but yeah constantly playing catch up at work puts me on the back foot fairly often these days.

His next rainbow list had me and sig, 2 of the three suspecting him, at the bottom, and Matt F somewhere towards the middle, but he then made 2 posts saying he doubted Matt's intentions with his case:

Spoiler: show

Epignosis
Choutas

Diiny
Elohcin
JaggedJimmyJay
Ricochet
Matt F
Metalmarsh89
RadicalFuzz
bcornett24

Strawhenge
DrWilgy
Bullzeye

Russtifinko
sig

And I need to figure out why I was thinking of sig as town back after Day 1\2, and read up on the cases against RadicalFuzz cos thats new to me.

Spoiler: show

I'm very happy with a 3J vs Motel Room duel

Sit back and watch two town (yes I think jjj is still probably town) duke it out appeals to you?

Actually you have a bunch of questions I remember reading and thinking there is no way Matt expects an answer for this. Is all of this effort investment just to stir in every single direction you can think of and sit back and watch the fireworks?

Spoiler: show

Linki - Move on to the next scum-fixation, of course!

Right but do you intend to wear it or not care?

I'm not certain how genuine you are about caring who gets lynched atm. Your choices havent really been the lynch outcomes for the last couple lynches and I think it might be revealing to see how you react when you get it wrong.

[Russtifinko]

I see I'm a contender today ok I can understand that, my contributions have been dropping. If I have to vote to save myself I won't vote these players - JJJ, choutas, strawhenge - so line your bandwagons up accordingly scum.

This one is important for my theory of the past 2 days. Why didn't motel room vote Choutas instead of MM doing it? Because he said he wouldn't, right here, and it would've looked too obvious to take back. He did vote Bullzeye that Day, which looks ok, but keep in mind that Bullz had more or less given up by this point. motel hadn't mentioned him before that I found, so to me it looks like distancing of a soon-to-be-dead teammate.

[Russtifinko]

Finished. I apologize that I took basically a whole page with that, but felt it all needed to be said.

Russ I don't mean to be ignorant of your case against motel room. I understand your suspicion of him, it isn't
hard to compile evidence against him (the case looks a lot like a case against me is likely to look. When I did my spew review for him (I think on Day 10), it eased some of my concerns. I'd ask that you find that review and take a look -- you can show me where you disagree. I want to discuss your read on motel room further, but I think this is a necessary starting point.

I can't easily reference it myself on my phone.

I hate to be this way, but I've spent over 4 hours mafia-ing today after working 9 hours. I'm going to bed. I'll have very limited time after work tomorrow, so I'll try to get to it then.

I will say, the case on him looks different to me in a number of ways. You didn't defend Floyd or ignore BR, you didn't say lynching civs was ok, when people accuse you of stuff you respond by posting even more analysis instead of saying the case is bad and thus whoever posted it is too, and you're posting a hell of a lot more. All points in your favor in my opinion.

If there's one thing about motel that gives me pause, it's the following post. I assume it came up in your review? Two now-confirmed baddies basically gang up on motel because he questioned the wisdom of lynching Devin after the failed Sorsha lynch. I do find it a very good look, but to me it's an island of good in a sea of bad.

Spoiler: show

So can anyone else see the possible save attempt? Thinking we'll find baddies among the Sorsha voters for sure, especially if Devin was their endangered teammate. Probably going to vote Devin tomorrow. Espers and Russti also have my eye.

Who is saving who in this scenario? Devin was always behind the major Sorsha bandwagon, so what do you mean how do you see it?

Toward the end, as Devin started to catch Sorsha up and looked like he might be in danger, Sorsha started to gain even more votes in order to keep her ahead.

Ok fair. But yeah it only works if Devin is scum which maybe not.

So to summarise, Devin may or may not be scum.

Thanks for playing.

hi mac i'm selling these fine leather jackets.

If you can find more like this, and convince me that my theory of how he's handled teammates is incredibly unlikely, then I'm willing to see it another way. In all honestly, though, I think it would take a lot, because to me the pieces all fit except for this single post.

[Marmot]

Very good chance Marsh is bad. Will expand later. #legacyofstrawhenge

I look forward to your expansions.

Meantime, why did you make this post immediately after the new day started?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Meantime, why did you make this post immediately after the new day started?

I checked in at work and that's what time it was. Plus the death of RadicalFuzz without an accompanying "the mafia have been eliminated" or "the serial killer has been eliminated" leaves you square in the crosshairs.

More substantive explanation to come.

Why do you care when I said that?

[Strawhenge]

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Metalmarsh89's content about Bullzeye:

*NOTE* -- I have deliberately avoided thoroughly reviewed Rico's own work on this interaction before producing this.

Spoiler: show

Here's a view of Day 4's lynch with the two main players involved at the forefront.

Devin the Omniscient
9
bcornett24 (15), Sorsha (16), JaggedJimmyJay (22), Bullzeye (23), Black Rock (25), Ricochet (26), Golden (27), DrWilgy (31), Epignosis (33) 27%

Sorsha
10
Choutas (6), seaside (8), Devin the Omniscient (9), Strawhenge (11), motel room (17), Matt F (20), Elohcin (24), MacDougall (28), espers (29), Russtifinko (30) 30%

My question to any player pointing the Day 4 lynch out as a save: Why could it be a save?

Sorsha led the lynch 4-0, 6-2, and 10-7. It was tied at one point at 7-7, but at no point did Devin lead the lynch (unless someone had switched their vote from one to the other, which I have not looked into yet). If this was a save attempt, MacDougall, espers, and Russtinfinko look the worst for their votes.

Looking back Bullzeye is the only one who pointed out "save attempt". But he mentioned no names to be doing the saving.

Also, I do not forgive him for voting for me on Day 3.

MM brought this out in Night 4 after the Sorsha lynch. He was half-contesting the notion that Devin was saved by Sorsha voters and noted that Bullzeye was the only person to really be pushing that agenda. I've highlighted a portion here that I think promotes an illogical thought process. While we know now that Devin was not "saved", we didn't know that then and that means a townie must approach the scenario from that mindset of uncertainty. MM portrays that mindset here, but arrives at a distinct conclusion (against the notion of a save) via a line of thinking that doesn't make sense. He's acknowledged that the Sorhsa/Devin wagons were at one point tied 7-7 and still discards the notion of a save because "Devin never had the lead" -- this is erroneous to the point of being dubious. A tied tally between a townie and a potential mafioso is literally a perfect scenario for a save to be possible.

Why do I care? Because this line of thinking was his setup for throwing a little shade on Bullzeye. If a line of thinking appears so wrong that it's sincerity can be doubted, and it is applied to a soft criticism of a confirmed mafioso, then the potential for a team mate relationship is perfectly believable. Moreover, MM hardly followed up on this. The following post is essentially the extent of that effort:

Spoiler: show

I haven't gotten the chance to look at Devin. Is there any case or points you can point me to that would explain his 9 votes from Day 4?

The other part of the lynch being a possible "save" hinges on Devin being bad. I still have not read everything that has happened in this thread, and I don't know if I will, so some assistance would be welcome.

This was directed at Bullzeye, but any response from a Devin suspector is welcome.

He again names Bullzeye but it's barely accusatory and even invites the discussion to expand well beyond just Bullzeye.

Spoiler: show

Are we going to ignore the simple possibility that the ???? kill could've been whoever Golden had seduced? It's not like we aren't 100% certain of what his role was.

If that's the case, does it tell us anything?

On Day 5 Bullzeye throws a pretty meaningless theory into the thread and MM asks a rather neutral question about it.

Spoiler: show

Yes, if Golden was targeted, it'd go to ????. Golden wouldn't die. He'd not even be a kill target anymore, ???? would.

Alternatively, if ???? was the seduced and targeted, it'd go to Golden. ???? would not be a kill target anymore, Golden would. So it couldn't be a failed kill attempt on ???? anymore.

You'll note that I've questioned why the redirected kill would even be mentioned myself and have said it's the only hole in the theory. Still, it's a better one than Matt's as it has actual grounding in logic. I don't think it's really that important anyway tbh.

Matt's was logical. It just has a hole that makes it impossible, and Matt has yet to acknowledge this.

MM chats with Bullzeye about Matt's SK theory for Mac (suggesting the theory was both logical and had a hole rendering it impossible -- ).

Spoiler: show

Jay! what do you think of Devin's previous vote for espers and this point I raised?

How does Devin's later self-vote, after voting for Bullzeye for meta, sit with you?

I ask because you said you read Devin's reactions today as genuine, but you said that before these posts.

After I'd started to doubt the Devin lynch as a good option, MM dropped this question on me. I didn't really consider it a significant moment before, but it could be now. I'm not sure why the sincerity of Devin's vote is being checked against his "voting for Bullzeye for meta". I don't understand the logic being drawn here, and I don't understand why Bullzeye's name is present in this post.

Spoiler: show

Anyway, I'm mafia'd out tonight, but I may peek back in later.

Tomorrow I'll finish my response to your BR ISO, Jay. Then I'll look at your bcornett ISO. Then I'll read the second half of Rico's novel. Just reminding myself what I plan to do here.

Also, my list of Don'tLynches

Bullzeye
Elohcin
JaggedJimmyJay
Matt F
Metalmarsh89
RadicalFuzz
Ricochet
Russtifinko

Day 6 "don't lynch" includes Bullzeye. I'm not automatically perturbed that a confirmed mafioso is on this list, because mistakes happen to everyone. What troubles me is that I have no idea why Marsh came to this perspective by this point in the game. His only content relevant to Bullzeye before this point had largely read-independent questions and to contest Bullzeye's Devin-was-saved agenda. Honestly considering the way Bullzeye played this game from the word "Go" it's hard to understand how anyone would include him on this list, and I don't see content in MM's history to support this.

Things like this are exactly why I ask people these silly questions and for GTH reads. This is a distinct and important point in which MM took a significant stance on a player and it can allow us to judge him more conclusively.

- He GTH reads Bullzeye as good on Day 7.

- Bullzeye is the towniest shade of blue in a Day 9 rainbow.

Spoiler: show

Bullzeye

Most interesting bit to me. What makes you feel good? I wanna feel good.

All vibes. My read also hasn't changed on him for a couple days, so there's that.

I asked him what made him feel good about Bullzeye. He gave me "vibes".

It's Day 9 and we're talking about "vibes".

Spoiler: show

I'm voting Bullzeye for right now.

I'm reading your Bullzeye post now.

How about RadicalFuzz?

Linki: Russ, I didn't intend to call Epignosis stupid. I was taking a popular idiom and inserting Epignosis's name into it.

MM tells Epi he's reading his case against Bullzeye on Day 9. I don't see any post in which he shares his thoughts on that case though.

Spoiler: show

I have played with Bullz a number of times, and mainly when he's been a baddie, I believe. The one thing I remember well is that he gets HYPER defensive over relatively little things, and generally over defends himself and convinces everyone he's bad. Iirc he's had some pretty spectacular flameouts as a baddie.

Has he had any spectacular flameouts as a townie?

Harry Stephen Keeler rings a bell.

I have played with Bullz a number of times, and mainly when he's been a baddie, I believe. The one thing I remember well is that he gets HYPER defensive over relatively little things, and generally over defends himself and convinces everyone he's bad. Iirc he's had some pretty spectacular flameouts as a baddie.

Has he had any spectacular flameouts as a townie?

Harry Stephen Keeler rings a bell.

Never mind, he was mafia in that game.

What do you make of Bullzeye being pretty subdued in his treatment of Mac, who accused him often?

It seems like a scumtell, especially considering the history behind Bullzeye as mafia.

I'll double-check his teammate interactions as mafia in past games if I get a chance.

Epi expanded on his meta read of Bullzeye which led to an extended discussion on the matter. He explores the meta question a little bit with past game examples and ends up granting that Bullzeye's subdued handling of Mac's accusation "seems like a scumtell" before pledging to double-check further.

Spoiler: show

Flash was unconventional, but Bullzeye and I had a good back and forth (I was "bad", but I don't consider Flash a true Mafia game).

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/search ... 2&sr=posts

Last Man Standing was another unconventional one (again, not a true Mafia game), but:

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/search ... 5&sr=posts

My point in all this is that Bullzeye seemed perfectly fine with MacDougall calling him bad.

That's unlike him if he's a civilian, from my experience.

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 041#p87041

Monty Python. Here's a normal mafia game (closed setup). Bullzeye is mafia, and Long Con is his teammate. Long Con says Bullzeye is info-dumping, but Bullzeye "shrugs it off", even while he is heatedly calling Boogs a liar for his accusations.

MM draws out a specific example of a game in which Bullzeye, as mafia, behaved similarly to what he did in response to Mac in this game. Seems like a pretty significant find, we'll see what effect it has on MM's read. There's evidence of a shift here in MM's perspective of Bullzeye, but there hasn't been a distinct accusation yet.

MM talks to Choutas about Bullzeye and the flavor of this post is mostly soft-defensive. Choutas asserted a single statement Bullzeye made was pingy and MM dissuaded that read. He then qualified that he felt Bullzeye as a townie has the tendency to react abrasively to info-dumping as opposed to cases -- a step back from the prior progression MM was making away from the town read on Bullzeye.

One obvious question I'd ask is: why would Bullzeye abrasively combat info-dumping about him if he's town? The rule-breaking might not be savory, but it wouldn't threaten his position in the game like it might if he is mafia. In any event the important thing here is that MM's momentary straying from the town read seems to be ending here.

Spoiler: show

But hey, I did learn some things from skimming through players' posts looking for all of their votes cast. Here are quick thoughts I have on players.

Bullzeye - There's that MacDougall interaction that Epignosis. But everything else feels less... bad. Nothing stood out as super-civ, but nothing bad either. I don't know I'll have to revisit him again I think. After browsing through 6 other players after Bullzeye, my thoughts are all over the place now.

Choutas - I commented on the votes already. He's often voted early without changing his vote beyond that. The only exception was seemingly to try and save a lynched mafia. He has dropped in my rainbow list.

Diiny - His contributions have not been great. Like Bullzeye, I had thoughts before, which have been replaced by the other players I've looked at since, but I do recall him being very go-along in his demeanor.

DrWilgy - His case on Day 2 against Long Con looks really good (barring at strategic bussing attempt). He's still been pretty solid since then. He helped lynch MacDougall on Day 6, and his votes outside of just seemed solid. Also, like Strawhenge, there was a point where he was trying to push an idea that relied on info, before he realized the error in his ways. Like Strawhenge, I think this is a good look for the doctor.

RadicalFuzz - Voting record doesn't look good. His attitude is solid and consistent, but he's done a good job at not committing to any reads on players that happened to flip mafia, specifically MacDougall and Floyd. Each of his votes has not resulted in a lynch with two exceptions. 1) espers on Day 5. Espers did lead the lynch 8-6 over Devin, but Devin was lynched instead due to vote manipulations. 2) Fuzz voted sig on Day 9, but that was a self-preservation vote. Thus, both of these exceptions get stars next to them, and don't make his vote record very solid.

Russtifinko - My mind has been changed on Russti. I think I may have tunneled on him quite a bit this game. Russti has not been afraid of making a decisive vote, whether it be on a baddie or a civilian. This consistent aggressive strategy has more potential to come from a civilian than a mafia member, in my opinion. He's got balls, and his output has been consistent throughout this game. Yes he has said several things that seem waffly/weird, but he's generally been open-minded as well, not afraid to trust another player when he was not certain (which was the case in the Long Con lynch).

Strawhenge - I can't see him being mafia at all. I've got a role pegged for him right now, and I've seen strong flashes of a civilian playstyle that I've noticed in my RYM research of him. I also completely understand the effects of burnout.

Compare the language MM employs here to talk about Bullzeye with the language he uses about every other read in this post. Only with Diiny does he offer up a waffle of a sentence like "I had thoughts before, which have been replaced by other players I've looked at since". He still gives a distinct read on Diiny though -- that his contributions have been poor and him being "go-along". These are criticisms, even if the post does not commit to moving against him. With everyone else he comes to a clear read.

With Bullzeye, he is the Great Emperor Waffle of Eggopolis. He acknowledges that the MacDougall interaction Epi and I mentioned exists, but he doesn't actually say anything about it. He doesn't say anything about anything with regards to Bullzeye.

"Nothing stood out as super-civ, but nothing bad either. I don't know I'll have to revisit him again I think."

This sentence can be found the Mafia Encyclopedia of Non-committal Reads.

He did give us a rainbow immediately after this post though.

Spoiler: show

Thus far, my rainbow list looks like this.


Strawhenge
Russtifinko
DrWilgy
Bullzeye
Diiny
Choutas
RadicalFuzz

Dead center.

Spoiler: show

I have no problem with you lynching me I am cool with that. Really. It's just hilarious everyone bothered to case me on Day 10(some did the previous day, it isn't directed to everyone). I wanted out of the game anyway. The only sad thing about my lynch is that town will get fucked and most likely lose the game.

By all means guys lynch me. Call my reads laughable, bully me and spit on me and lynch me like Jesus.

Then Choutas said, "MP, forgive them, for they do not know what they are doing." And they divided up His garments by casting lots.

F*** you're doing it too Choutas. Buck up and play the game. I know it's lasted an eon but I don't give a crap. IrritatedJimmyJay.

You call Bullzeye's situation a concession, but you cheer Choutas on.

Yer damn right.

Vote compilation -- the effort here is appreciated regardless of your alignment MM. I must say though that you put up a lot of posts within this framework and I'm not sure you did very much to take anything from it. In RYM #82 I put up a complete vote compilation as a mafioso because it was the easiest way to Look The Part without actually doing anything. I think it's a good possibility this is the same thing.

Spoiler: show

Like twice. Maybe three times. Answering posts that directly relate to me and facts I know because I'm me is much easier than reading through hundreds of posts and forming in-depth views based on careful analysis. I'm not even trying to defend myself from being lynched here, I'm just defending against the idea that my having been quiet and uninvolved is in any way related to my alignment.

The idea here isn't that quiet Bullzeye = bad Bullzeye. It's that maintaining an interest in responding to accusations and very little else for days and days is rather fundamental scumtell in Mafia. You fit the mold. Here's the problem: you're insisting that affecting this game in any other way is impossible without "forming in-depth views based on careful analysis". That is not the only option a townie has at his disposal. Most townies never even bother to perform "careful analysis". You've done close to nothing.

Various others were never caught up full with this game and still tried to provide something meaningful. bcornett is an example who comes to mind -- constantly behind the pace of the game, but when he was around he'd put something of value in the thread.

This is a very good point, actually.

Linki: that's what I'm doing right now. Get out of my head.

This is a very good point, actually.

Linki: that's what I'm doing right now. Get out of my head.

Why is it a good point? What about this point resonates with Metalmarsh89?

The whole salami.

Your comparison of Bullzeye to bcornett, in that brian complained about keeping up, but still managed to state his opinion at times. Strawhenge has been acting similarly, but you have a townread on him, as do I.

But my question to you is, what is your read on Choutas?

I explained to MM why I felt Bullzeye's late game behavior (Day 10 at this point) was so suspicious to me that I said he was conceding as a mafioso by drawing a comparison to bcornett (a townie who had a lot of trouble keeping up with the game but still did his best to stay relevant when he could).

Marsh thought I made a "very good point". What about the point did he like? "The whole salami".

He prodded me for a read on Choutas in the meanwhile.

Spoiler: show

Choutas

Between Bullzeye and Choutas, I'd rather lynch Choutas.

This is possible the worst vote of the entire game by any player in it. If you look back in Marsh's posts for justifications for his Choutas vote, they exist, but not in any confidence-inspiring clear manner. He mostly criticized Choutas for voting early consistently (this is not a strong accusation frankly) and making one bad vote when he wasn't early. When your entire analytic focus is voting records, it's pretty easy to find someone who looks like a dope and fling poop at them. Even still though, the progression of MM's posts seems tailored to the survival of Bullzeye at the expense of Choutas until the day expires -- without inspiring confidence like I said.

Moreover, when he explained his Choutas vote -- it wasn't even about his voting record. It was this:

Spoiler: show

Choutas

Between Bullzeye and Choutas, I'd rather lynch Choutas.

Now that we're on the other side, why did you prefer him to Bullzeye? I went a bit back through your posts and couldnt really see.

Jay brought up Bullzeye's recent behavior. I thought it was a good point. But then I noticed Choutas' behavior today as well. Early on this Day phase, he made about not having time to play and getting modkilled. Then, as the day grew late and it grew more likely he would be lynched, he got more into defending himself. I misread this, thinking he was a member of mafia, trying to bluff us.

I feel bad about it. I didn't have a lot of confidence in the vote, but took it upon myself to break the tie anyway.

motel room specifically asked him why he preferred Choutas over Bullzeye. Instead of referencing his prior voting record compilations (which would have been dubious enough), he cited Choutas's EOD behavior. He acknowledged that I made a "very good point" about Bullzeye's behavior (indeed, "the whole salami" of the point), but moved against Choutas instead without saying why.

If this mindset existed when the Choutas vote was being placed, why did MM not actually express it? He said he preferred to lynch Choutas and voted for Choutas and that was it. It wouldn't have been hard for him to simply say either to Choutas or to everyone else "I am voting for Choutas because I think his current behavior clashes with his prior stated threats to pursue a modkill". Instead, we get it after the fact and it reads like an excuse.

Spoiler: show

Bullzeye being mafia is not supported by Epignosis's theory, for what it's worth.

Night 5 posts

bcornett24- 0 posts
Bullzeye- 10 posts
Choutas- 12 posts
Diiny- 0 posts (0 posts Day 6 also)
DrWilgy- 0 posts
Elohcin- Isn't even reading the thread 3 posts
Epignosis- Count yourself if you care
JaggedJimmyJay- 14,241 posts
Matt F- 24 posts
Metalmarsh89- 24 posts
motel room- 0 posts
RadicalFuzz- 11 posts
Ricochet- 27 posts
Russtifinko- 10 posts
sig- 0 posts
Strawhenge- 2 posts
TheFloyd73- The Mountain Comes to Mohammad

This post might not mean much but I'll bring it up. He defended Bullzeye against "mafia" suspicion in light of Epi's serial killer theory. This is a weird goof up to make though because pretty much everyone suspecting Bullzeye was doing so on the basis that he's mafia, not that he's the SK.

It could just be oversight because I didn't even notice it when I responded to this post originally.

Spoiler: show

Because he is obvscum. Bullzeye is scum. Fuzz is scum. Look to the throwaway votes imo.

Look where your top 2 scumreads sit, Jay.

Mac loves his WIFOM. It' all over his ISO. What do you think this says about those two?

I feel the same way. But as Ricochet pointed out, MacDougall immediately reversed his opinion of Fuzz, calling Wilgy scum and Fuzz town. Fuzz then pushed for a CFD of Wilgy.

MM references a specific Mac post which might suggest Fuzz and Bullzeye would be a difficult pairing to argue as mafia. He then maneuvers this into a case against Fuzz and not Bullzeye.

Spoiler: show

Jay, I'll entertain your notion that RadicalFuzz and Bullzeye are mafia. I noticed this post from RadicalFuzz on Night 5.

Bullzeye, if you're still here, how have my posts in the last hour changed your opinion of me? Feel free to do a simple before and after analysis instead of a short answer. I'll read it.

Fuzz asks Bullzeye to analyze Fuzz's recent posts and explain why his opinion has changed. Looking at Bullzeye's posts, he did not mention any change in heart on RadicalFuzz, or any read of Fuzz at all. Here is Bullzeye's response.

I don't know that they've had any impact at all to be honest. I've never suspected you regardless. I actually have a fairly good vibe about you, I think you've been making good efforts to get involved and find baddies. I might not always think you're right, but as of now I haven't seen a reason to think you're bad yet.

Link to the start of the conversation. RadicalFuzz is forcing Bullzeye to take a stance on him, and Bullzeye does. But RadicalFuzz's approach to Bullzeye isn't consistent with what was stated before.

MM entertains the notion of a Fuzz/Bullzeye pairing by checking into their interactions. This might be important because MM continued to push a Fuzz lynch all day while Bullzeye was still more likely to be lynched (as was Wilgy). If Fuzz weren't dead, this might be something MM would employ against him right now. That's only relevant if Fuzz was town though.

Spoiler: show

Of the two, which do you find more suspicious MM?

RadicalFuzz. I think that particular conversation looks bad for both of them, and there are other factors with regards to RadicalFuzz that I/you/somebody has brought up before. The CFD. The Floyd slip.

Like I said, RadicalFuzz asked Bullzeye why Bullzeye's opinion of him changed, and Bullzeye had never stated an original opinion of Fuzz to begin with, late alone changed a previous one. Bullzeye's answer is not great, but I still think that RadicalFuzz put words into Bullzeye's mouth there, and forced Bullzeye to take a stance. It is consistent with RadicalFuzz's intent on someone reading him as bad though, I will admit that.

Linki: Fuzz, you asked Bullzeye "How have my posts changed your opinion of me" when Bullzeye did not have an opinion of you. Can you explain the meaning of that statement?

He specifically selects Fuzz as the more suspicious of the two.

Spoiler: show

Actually, I would tinfoil Strawhenge as mafia as well.

I'd list Bullzeye as low-hanging fruit.

Bullzeye is MM's low-hanging fruit.

Spoiler: show

Guys, I deserve to die for missing the vote yesterday. I'm so ashamed I never miss votes! I was just so tired I forgot.

Ok, Bullzeye. :P

The Bullzeye vote we needed before finally comes on Day 11 in the form of banter.

Spoiler: show

I almost forgot.

JaggedJimmyJay. My vote's back on you now.

Just returning to the status quo, and taking the pressure of Bullzeye in the hopes that he respond to your request.

Welp, there it went. He "took the pressure" off of Bullzeye, which was surely suffocating given that banter vote.

Spoiler: show

Just returning to the status quo, and taking the pressure of Bullzeye in the hopes that he respond to your request.

I deserve to die because I intend to respond. Not necessarily tonight, maybe tomorrow during the day since there's plenty of time. I'm still reading and don't know how long it will take. I deserve to die for being tired and slow at reading as well as not psychic. My many failures are a great source of shame.

You're not my number one lynch option, my vote for you was in jest.

I know you may not have caught up yet, but just know that though you did receive a few votes yesterday, you're not necessarily everyone's number one lynch option. Everybody (except motel room) is fair game today, and should be treated as such.

This kind of content is quite important, as this is MM speaking directly with Bullzeye in the heat of the moment -- team mate relationships can be affirmed or denied in these kinds of interactions. In this case he is offering encouragement to Bullzeye by assuring him he isn't automatically going to be lynched. I don't think this post is incompatible with a team mate relationship.

Spoiler: show

He could also be a baddie who doesn't have time to catch up or he could be a civvie who has not interest in catching up.

Pick one.

I made a similar assertion about Choutas yesterday, and you found the decision to do so uninspiring. Why the fuck would you ask me to do the same thing again today?

MM waffled on Bullzeye some more and then freaked out when I asked him to take an actual stance.

Spoiler: show

Bullzeye, are you keeping your cards close to your chest knowing what will result if you are lynched?

Is it possible for this question to yield an insightful response on Day 11?

Spoiler: show

Who are you voting, rico?

Tell me what you think of this radfuzz bullzeye thing too

Come lynch RadicalFuzz with me.

Is this to rico or me?

either way: why not bullzye; why not wilgy?

I don't agree with the case on DrWilgy.

I'm not opposed to lynching Bullzeye. He's my second option.

But you're asking Rico what he thinks of RadicalFuzz/Bullzeye. I want to know what you think.

Reaffirms his preference for Fuzz as the lynch of the day over Bullzeye.

Spoiler: show

His desire has amounted to "vote RadicalFuzz with me" so pardon me if I'm not impressed.

If one vote to four at 45 minutes till deadline isn't an off-wagon, then at what point does it become one?

When the lynch is over and the votes are official. You can't declare a winner until the clock hits zero.

Linki: I'm somewhat wary of a Bullzeye lynch right now because nobody has denied the interest in voting against it.

The highlighted statement might be fun, because MM was the one who denied having the interest in voting against it -- he sideline-supported the Bullzeye lynch while maintaining a preference for Fuzz (and used his vote accordingly).

Bullzeye spew about Metalmarsh89:

Spoiler: show

Haven't been able to catch up as much as I'd have liked to and it's way too late for me now, so as I said earlier I'm going to have to random this one. Hopefully the night phase will allow me to catch up properly and get into the game! Randomizer is telling me to *Vote for MM*. I only hope he can find it in his heart to forgive me.

Bantery Day 1 vote excused as "random"? This post is quite belabored. I am not sure it was really random. That implies a strategic intent.

Spoiler: show

What does everyone think about MM?

Then, what does everyone think about MM's "death wishes / death-deserving" posts? I'm seeing them in my revisit of Day 4 and they give me pause. MM's banter and evasive game can serve both his good or bad persona, but those posts suddenly make me think a bit back to how a civvie MM can usually tend to act hinty. Anyone seeing anything of this nature?

Pretty sure he's not the only person to have made such posts. I think it's a punishment of some kind for inactivity. Are you suggesting you think he's hinting that we should lynch him or something?

Rico mentions the deathwish posts re: MM and Bullzeye offers a soft defense. This is an easy post for Bullzeye to make regardless of MM's alignment. He bothered to make it though so judge as you may.

Spoiler: show

Here's a view of Day 4's lynch with the two main players involved at the forefront.

Devin the Omniscient
9
bcornett24 (15), Sorsha (16), JaggedJimmyJay (22), Bullzeye (23), Black Rock (25), Ricochet (26), Golden (27), DrWilgy (31), Epignosis (33) 27%

Sorsha
10
Choutas (6), seaside (8), Devin the Omniscient (9), Strawhenge (11), motel room (17), Matt F (20), Elohcin (24), MacDougall (28), espers (29), Russtifinko (30) 30%

My question to any player pointing the Day 4 lynch out as a save: Why could it be a save?

Sorsha led the lynch 4-0, 6-2, and 10-7. It was tied at one point at 7-7, but at no point did Devin lead the lynch (unless someone had switched their vote from one to the other, which I have not looked into yet). If this was a save attempt, MacDougall, espers, and Russtinfinko look the worst for their votes.

Looking back Bullzeye is the only one who pointed out "save attempt". But he mentioned no names to be doing the saving.

Also, I do not forgive him for voting for me on Day 3.

Did I not mention Russ like 3 times? Also I thought it had been tied at 9-9 with Russ breaking the tie, but I was tired and misremembering. The reason I think the lynch looks shifty is that every time Devin got near Sorsha's vote count, Sorsha got a bunch more votes to keep her ahead. Obviously not all of these could have come from baddies, but it looks odd to me. Specifically Sorsha's final three votes which all came in one string to keep her ahead. I've said that already as well, I'm pretty sure.

I haven't gotten the chance to look at Devin. Is there any case or points you can point me to that would explain his 9 votes from Day 4?

The other part of the lynch being a possible "save" hinges on Devin being bad. I still have not read everything that has happened in this thread, and I don't know if I will, so some assistance would be welcome.

This was directed at Bullzeye, but any response from a Devin suspector is welcome.

Well Devin wasn't my strongest suspect. While I did suspect him, the main reason I voted for him was because once she got past the defeatism I felt Sorsha came off very genuine in her defences and had begun to feel quite good about her overall, so didn't think she should be lynched. I felt a Devin lynch was more worthwhile, and more feasible than lynching anyone else I'd thought of (i.e. Russ, I think my only supporter in that case was poor FZ).

As to why exactly I did suspect Devin: There was his blendiness around the LC lynch which has been pointed out a few times as a possible connector between the two of them. I think blendy in general would be a fair description - his posts also have quite a bit of fluff to them, I find. Not to mention, up until naming a few suspects tonight he doesn't ever do very much in the way of discussing his suspicions or adding to existing debates on people. When I look at his posts I feel what SVS was saying about me in Recruitment - he has a fairly solid amount of posts for having given such a small amount of opinions.

You were his teammate in Recruitment, so I'd be interested in your perspective when you get the chance to give him a proper look over.

Bullzeye explains his Devin-was-saved agenda to MM. I don't believe there was a follow-up on this as I mentioned earlier.

Spoiler: show

I am putting a vote onto Russ, based on what MacDougall said. I really don't have the time to catch up fully and form a solid opinion right now. Voting for Russ is the best I can do.

Black Rock replaced AceofSpaces. This was one of AceofSpaces' only two posts of the game before he subbed out, in which he followed a known teammate's suspicion to vote Russti, being the second vote on him and about an hour before the deadline.

I asked Mac if he wanted to lynch Russti, who had quickly gained four votes, and was looking like a decent lynch candidate (trailing birdwithteeth 4-7). Instead, Mac left his vote on the less popular reywas (now RadicalFuzz).

These things considered, I think Russtifinko is mafia.

Finally someone agrees!

Bullzeye celebrates dramatically when MM makes a move against Russ on Day 7.

Bullzeye responds to Epi's case as well as some Marsh content.

Epi's stuff was a lot more scathing than MM's, so the responses bear that out. Bullzeye is defending himself against Epi and explaining himself to MM.

Guys, I deserve to die for missing the vote yesterday. I'm so ashamed I never miss votes! I was just so tired I forgot.

Ok, Bullzeye. :P

Just because I deserve to die (and I do) doesn't mean you should kill me. That'd be too obvious.

Spoiler: show

Just returning to the status quo, and taking the pressure of Bullzeye in the hopes that he respond to your request.

I deserve to die because I intend to respond. Not necessarily tonight, maybe tomorrow during the day since there's plenty of time. I'm still reading and don't know how long it will take. I deserve to die for being tired and slow at reading as well as not psychic. My many failures are a great source of shame.

Bullzeye's empty promise to do something with his time in the game falls at MM's feet.

~~~

Conclusion:

It's really easy to see MM in a bad light here. It's just not a good look at any juncture really. The prior analyses re: MM have been rather inconclusive, but this is distinctly bad and icky.

Not convinced? I think a good case can be made that he's the SK too. I'll work on that after I get a little sleep though.

[Ricochet]

How does it compare to my work, now that you've done yours?

Is your interaction conclusion as strong as your earlier post on MM being likely bad, or does the earlier post stem from something "extra" or "strawy"? Do you think there is an actual legacy from Strawy or just a vaguer possible deduction?

Between Wilgy and MM, so far, who are you leaning today?

Do you reckon the Mafia still has Drugs or is it just Angel?

[Marmot]

Meantime, why did you make this post immediately after the new day started?

I checked in at work and that's what time it was. Plus the death of RadicalFuzz without an accompanying "the mafia have been eliminated" or "the serial killer has been eliminated" leaves you square in the crosshairs.

More substantive explanation to come.

Why do you care when I said that?

More substantive explanation to come.

[Marmot]

Jay, you're full of shit.

I'll offer some more elongated responses when I get a chance, but you are stuck in a tunnel now. Your case on DrWilgy yesterday was based on everything that MacDougall said and nothing about what DrWilgy said.

Your case against me is based on my interactions with Bullzeye and no other derivation. The content looks bad, but I'm not basing my whole read on you from your interactions with MacDougall.

You're leaving out way too many pieces of the puzzle for Day 12.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I make one case against you and now I'm "full of shit"?

Naw. Revisit that conclusion mate -- prior analyses were inconclusive. You've not been a town read for some time. The Bullzeye interaction is the first that puts you in a seriously bad position. I also said you're a SK candidate. I have lots of baddieness to associate with MM.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

How does it compare to my work, now that you've done yours?

Is your interaction conclusion as strong as your earlier post on MM being likely bad, or does the earlier post stem from something "extra" or "strawy"? Do you think there is an actual legacy from Strawy or just a vaguer possible deduction?

Between Wilgy and MM, so far, who are you leaning today?

Do you reckon the Mafia still has Drugs or is it just Angel?

It seems like we commented on many of the same things but I was more severe in my interpretations. I think you gave him too much BOTD in your conclusion.

It is as strong. That's all I'll say.

Not sure yet. It might be the best possible time to kill the SK while the mafia has/have no kill. That could still be MM. More analysis needed.

Drugs hasn't had an influence for a while, but who knows. After Burger and until Fuzz, I think the best candidate for a dead mafioso is Epi -- and that's a stretch.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Considering Metalmarsh89 as a Psycho Killer candidate:

Spoiler: show

Not surprised with any of that.

Two SK kills, no nightkill?

You heard me.

You don't say.

MM pokes in on a SK-relevant conversation without saying anything.

Spoiler: show

No MM, I wasn't lynched, not sure what you're getting at?

Again, it could be a coincidence that he made that poster about me, but I truly believe he was a part of the challenge, and IF he was a part of the challenge, then he definitely won because the other challenger DID NOT win.

Cue to the SK getting two NK's and bada boom...

How do we know the "other" challenger did not win? How do we know some other player (from the Syndicate) did not perform their job better, and is the SK?

Contests Matt's Mac-as-SK theory by asking a question implying it could be someone else (without actually naming anyone who might have "performed their job better").

Spoiler: show

No MM, I wasn't lynched, not sure what you're getting at?

Again, it could be a coincidence that he made that poster about me, but I truly believe he was a part of the challenge, and IF he was a part of the challenge, then he definitely won because the other challenger DID NOT win.

Cue to the SK getting two NK's and bada boom...

How do we know the "other" challenger did not win? How do we know some other player (from the Syndicate) did not perform their job better, and is the SK?

I'm not completely sure, I just have a really good feeling that the other challenger didn't win.

Yeah, not sure, but let's lynch Mac and see if I'm wrong.

I'm not opposed to that.

Matt states some uncertainties about his Mac-as-SK read but still pushes his lynch "to see if he's wrong". MM suggests he is "not opposed" despite his prior contesting of the theory.

Spoiler: show

Haven't put much thought into who the SK is tbh but if we have everyone on board tracking the SK this could be fun. You could trust almost all the scum hunting done since the Mafia won't actually need to bullshit about who they think is the SK! Can trust almost everything at face value.

Day 5 - Hunt for Psycho Killer.

Let's look at some ISO's and start with people who have mentioned the psycho killer role. Rogue's love talking about their role.

From there we can look at interractions with the people SK has killed.

That's a pretty mighty generalization. But still, good plan. I'll go ahead and add you to the top of the "talked about Psycho Kiler" list.

MM is incredulous about Mac's stated strategy for hunting the SK but still calls it a "good plan". As basic as it might seem -- "rogues love to talk about their role" really is a proven thing in my experience. For some reason many self-aligned players just can't resist the need to involve their own role in discussion even when it doesn't need to be there. I've seen it multiple times. Mac may have been mafia, but I think he was being serious here.

Spoiler: show

The Day is 5 the time is 10:26 EST
Attempt 1: I tried to leave the house to be bitten by a rattlesnake I know the the snake will know I deserve to die. The front door is locked and the parents won't let me out so I went to my room built a rope using my boy scout skills out of my bed sheets and grappled out the window, down the wall in an attempt to find a rattlesnake. I've safely gotten out the window without falling to my death or my "rope" breaking looks like Boy scouts did teach me something and will begin my search for a rattlesnake in the concrete jungle of Philadelphia after this post. Hopefully it will realize I deserve to die then using it's magic snake powers like in Jungle Book convince y'all to vote for me.

What the hell are these posts? You were already punished to desire death. I'm not seeing any second challenger in the roles. Unless the power absorber really exists. It can't be the Mafia, because Sorsha was lynched.

I deserve to die for not explaining why I wrote such things, I guess you're just going to have to guess though.

I find the argument for Epi being the SK to have some good points, after considering the Mac Sk theory I'm not as confident in it.

Choutus why am I red on your list?

I'm leaning to an Epi vote today especially with the FZ killing it isn't looking good for him. I will need to look over Devin again I know he was second place yesterday and had been gaining attention for awhile.

Oh?

I would imagine one person here knows for certain that I am not the Psycho Killer.

That's a loaded comment Epignosis.

I think this post might have temporarily sent Epi into hunting MM as a SK candidate, and it's one that makes me suspicious too. Epi made a frank statement with pretty obvious implications, and MM felt the need to butt in and say this. I don't understand what interest MM would have in making this post unless he felt personally affected by Epi's comment. I asked him what this post was about at the time and he responded as follows:

Spoiler: show

That's a loaded comment Epignosis.

What do you mean?

- Epignosis could be bluffing.
- If he is not, he could be implying that the real Psycho Killer knows who he/she are, and that Epignosis is not he/she.
- He could also be implying that another player knows what Epignosis's role is for whatever reason, and thus cannot be Psycho Killer.
- He could just be saying that he knows he is not Psycho Killer in a roundabout way.

Some of these ideas take the discussion to areas that are OB. Epignosis dropped a lot of implications with a single statement.

Here's another theory I would like to introduce. Epignosis loves revenge. He will exact revenge for not only himself, but for teammates as well, and I have been a victim of this. Now, in Recruitment Mafia, Golden "got Epignosis nightkilled by mafia" very early in that game. As an act of vengeance, Epignosis would return the favor and nightkill Golden.

MM expanded on his post by stating the obvious in four separate bullets. He called Epi's claim "loaded" which is mildly accusatory, but the reasons given to describe it as "loaded" can be applied to nearly any role-relevant post in any game ever. MM's response to Epi smelled to me like someone dipping his toes into waters that he didn't need to be exploring and now the smell has become more potent with time and evidence. I think it might be self-revealing.

Orange: MM introduces a theory to associate Epignosis with the SK role -- suggests it was an "act of vengeance" against Golden to kill him based on what happened (or rather did not happen) in Recruitment IV. This seems like a dubious premise to me: that Epi would favor an emotional kill choice over a strategic kill choice. He strikes me as the opposite sort. Anyone else is welcome to contest that.

Spoiler: show

And since I brought it up earlier:

To anyone here who has hosted me, do I miss PMs?

No. I think Jay would have a low-posting game before you would miss a PM or lynch-vote.

Linki: Mac, Epignosis would still send a PM in saying he wouldn't kill if he is the PSK.

MM contests Mac's most absurd Epi-as-SK assertion with a point that would actually seem to support it. Sending in a declined attempt is logistically the same thing as missing the attempt. Illogical application of SK hunting/defending.

Spoiler: show

I like my theory about the PSK better.

Maybe he has the option to nightkill twice in one night but must forgo a nightkill the following night.

Important moment in which MM promotes a theory about the SK's lack of kill attempt on Night 5 alternative to Epi's theory about who did not post. He has since reverted to Epi's theory, which would seemingly exonerate MM.

Spoiler: show

Oh really?

No. I think MacDougall is a co-conspirator with Long Con. I don't think serial killers can be caught in the first half of a game outside of luck, so I don't bother hunting them until Mafia are eliminated.

Are you sure you're not the PSK?

Epi started pursuing MM as a SK propsect on Day 6 and one of MM's responses was this. He only complained about Epi's point of focus, not his actual read, and then OMGUSed. Weak.

Spoiler: show

@ mo-ro: The more I look at his voting patterns, and the more I think about classic SK behaviors, I'm thinking Psycho Killer. But there's no way to be sure. I'm just more sure that he's anti-town.

I just find it amazing that you came upon this realization at the exact same time that Epignosis did. The same explanation. The same conclusion. The same thought process.

I don't find your suspicion sincere at all.

And, @ Epignosis. Let me ask you again. I had the chance to lynch JaggedJimmyJay on Day 7, but I moved my vote to seaside instead. If I am the PSK, does this seem like a logical move to you?

Strawhenge (Psycho Killer victim) was getting into the heat of his anti-MM crusade here and MM discredited his entire attack merely because it came at the same time as Epignosis's (Psycho Killer victim) attack.

Then he asked a ridiculous question to Epi to promote himself as a non-SK candidate. The simple answer is: yes, MM, it seems perfectly logical for you to help lynch seaside on Day 7 and leave me as the odds-on favorite to be lynched right after him. Two for the price of one. I was able to regain my footing, but you didn't know that then.

This is the point in the game where I think the MM-as-SK case starts to become truly compelling.

Spoiler: show

Here is our conversation from when you first explained why you thought I am the PSK.

You start out with an explanation of why I am the PSK. I explain to you that your actions are not in the greatest civilian interest. I also believe that you know this already. After this statement I make to you, your response continue to get shorter and shorter to the questions I ask, noticably after the point where I suggest that you are the serial killer and why you are. You think I'm the PSK, don't you? You want me to be lynched for it don't you? Why would you not explain why "my action makes sense for a serial killer" when I ask?

Anyways, as I've stated before, it is in the civilian interest to lynch mafia today to skip the night phase. Mafia will get the chance to kill tonight because of the failed kill last night (unless I misunderstand Life during Wartime). I believe you know this, and you are trying to get me lynched today because of this. You have offered no argument that I am mafia to this point, so you don't believe I am mafia. This move only makes sense to me from a PSK Epignosis, and that is what I believe you are.

Here's MM's fullest rebuttal/OMGUS to Epi in the SK debate they were having. He gripes about Epi's responses getting "shorter and shorter" (this is Epi we're talking about here) and lacking in extensive explanation (this is Epi we're talking about here). Nothing in this post is inspiring or even sensible.

MM again insists that his move from a JJJ vote to a seaside vote on Day was not SK-compatible (absolutely false) and then pushes the agenda that a lynch of a mafia player is the higher priority because of the potential to skip a night phase. That is itself a fair perspective, but look at where he develops from that: "Epi is trying to get me lynched without calling me a mafia read. This means he's the SK."

What?

Why doesn't this make sense for a mafia Epi who is just trying to generate a mislynch? Why doesn't it make sense for a town Epi who believes the SK is the eminent threat of the day and is trying to get his top SK read lynched? How can we make the immediate jump to "Epi is the SK" from this? The thought process makes no sense to me, and it just reads as total OMGUS.

It is important to state that later Epi clarified his move against MM as a SK candidate was a gambit to expose people who'd latch on. That revelatory post follows:

Spoiler: show

So what I have learned by coming out of the blue and calling MM the Psycho Killer is that two people were eager to jump on that and lynch him for no stated reason:

Metalmarsh89
3
Epignosis (4), Strawhenge (6), TheFloyd73 (8)
17%

Regardless of whether MM is PK (and I don't really think he is, for a reason obvious to me), it's clear that Mammaries Can't Wait is still alive (it is October and I was wearing a pink shirt today, after all), and lynching Mafia should be top priority, which would deprive PK of his deadmaking services yet again.

Given that Long Con tried to pull this very thing Day 2 (or, rather, what looks like this very thing), I figure no one would expect me to do it. So I did.

Plus football got boring as hell last night.

The highighted portion reveals that Epi didn't think MM is the SK for a "reason obvious to him". He's likely referring to the Night 5 scenario in which there was no kill attempt and MM had numerous posts -- implying he didn't miss a PM. I think there's good reason to believe Epi's ploy was correctly placed, even if by accident, and I frankly think MM handled it poorly. If one has absolute trust in the Night 5 theory Epi proposed then there you go, but that's a dangerous proposition -- particularly when MM himself proposed an alternative.

Spoiler: show

Epignosis proposed that we should search for the PSK today.

I disagree. I think we should put drop the anchor on this mafia team if we can.

Day 9 priorities are still mafia-centric emerging from the Floyd lynch.

Spoiler: show

Because I am wary of him after the potential "slip". I don't think it was a slip, but I won't and can't ignore it.

Linki: Epignosis is still my #1 PSK suspish.

Still suspects Epi heavily as the SK even in light of Epi revealing his ruse.

Spoiler: show

You can't "dismiss" him as civilian?

If you're town that's valuable information.
If you're scum you already knew that.
If you're SK his allegiance is mostly irrelevant to you.

Your statement sounds like it originates from the third viewpoint.

Again, you missed the point of my post, and even every piece of my post. Before I said we can't dismiss him as civilian, I acknowledged that it was a favorable look for him. Meta is (typically) important for reading a player, but it should not be the soul method for reading a player.

That's now twice you've misinterpreted my posts.

Fuzz associated MM with the SK role on Day 10 and MM responded with accusations of misinterpretation. I do think the point he made about Choutas looked fake though (that Choutas's self-meta was a good look but couldn't exonerate him).

Spoiler: show

I don't really understand why my vote would look SKish. I can understand it coming from a mafia perspective, but an SK doesn't give a damn who gets killed/lynched as long as it ain't him. If anything, at this point in the game, the SK will probably want to lynch mafia, and be more apt to behave like a civilian.

MM again pushes a perspective that is nonsense. A SK still has plenty of reasons to care who is lynched and to employ strategic votes.

Spoiler: show

Bullzeye being mafia is not supported by Epignosis's theory, for what it's worth

Of the living players implicated by that theory, who do you lean toward?

Jay, same question to you.

Same to everyone else.

If Epignosis's theory is correct that the PSK missed the Night 5 kill because of inactivity, which player do you think is most likely to be the PSK based on players who did not post that night.

The candidates are bcornett (NK'd by mafia last night), Diiny, DrWilgy, and motel room.

MM now pushes Epi's theory of Night 5 non-posters as SK candidates. He seems to have discarded his own proposed alternative theory and is pursuing the one that doesn't feature him as a suspect.

Spoiler: show

-- calls Bullzeye unlikely mafia, based on Epignosis's theory [wasn't that about the SK, though?!]

Yeah, that was in reference to the SK theory.

Okay, so...? What do you conclude given this correction?

Spoiler: show

Very good chance Marsh is bad. Will expand later. #legacyofstrawhenge

I look forward to your expansions.

Meantime, why did you make this post immediately after the new day started?

I dropped in early on Day 12 with a strongly-worded anti-MM statement. What was his primary concern?

When I posted it.

~~~

Conclusion:

MM has made a concerted effort in this game to discuss the SK a lot more often than most players tend to, and in so doing he has maneuvered his suspicions in convenient manners while offering nonsense defenses for himself. If the SK really didn't send a PM on Night 5 then fine, but that theory doesn't have to define the entire nature of the SK hunt. That's a big pill to swallow frankly. I think there are plenty of reasons to associate MM with the SK role.

Let's return to #legacyofstrawhenge2015.

He's either Life During Wartime or Psycho Killer. Vote him immediately.

This came in Straw's first post after the simultaneous failed night kills of Night 7 on the same target.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

If anyone else out there has a strong reason to suspect someone as a kill-capable role, you should make yourself heard loudly by referencing thread-relevant things in a case. Don't waste any time.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Note to self: engage Russ on the matter of motel room when you get a chance.

[Marmot]

Jay, explain why you trust Strawhenge and what role you think he could be that would give us reason to put stock in his claim.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Jay, explain why you trust Strawhenge and what role you think he could be that would give us reason to put stock in his claim.

That's the fun part. It doesn't even have to be about his role! I bet that's been driving you nuts, eh?

But you trusted him too. You had him blue in your rainbow. You said he was showing things you recognized in your "RYM research" that made you feel good. Why did you trust your biggest foe in the game?