[END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

[Prisoner 509378]

Black Rock said nothing about Fuzz before he was lynched, and didn't appear to be present as the CFD developed (she left just before it started to rev up). Her earlier focus seemed to be more on Turnip Head and to a lesser degree Epignosis. I do like the way she responded to the results of the CFD/Fuzz flip though, at least in that her perspectives align well with my own other than the same sig read I've disagreed with nearly everyone else on. I don't get overwhelmingly good vibes in the absence of interactions with the dead mafioso, but I wouldn't call her a suspect either. Leaning slightly townward.

[Epignosis]

DDL came out of the gate and voted gleam again.

This is an empty defense of Scotty, since DDL doesn't name who he does think would kill Tranq (i.e., he rules out Scotty by name while ruling out everyone by default):

But I still have my reservations about Tranq's arrest. I wonder how feasible it is to arrest one of the most inactive players over the 20 or so other players who have likely got a firm grip on at least one police by now. If I was scum there is no way Tranq would be my first choice. I see nobody else who benefits from his arrest than you, Scotty. Being wrong about your suspicion of a player who was killed would, in most cases, come across as a town tell. You were able to express your suspicion of a player, while preventing Tranq from following it up and making your suspicion into a bigger deal than it was. Or that daisy thing, yeah.

Also, could you explain your day 1 vote? I understand that you voted based on inactivity, which I personally agree with, but why did you not change your vote from chaindeath to Tranq since you decided that he was the most suspicious?

I don't see the link between Scotty suspecting Tranq and Tranq being NK'd. That is now how mafia usually operates.

From my experience mafia usually wants to get rid of:

1- Someone who is unlikely to be lynched at any time (because they have to eliminate every player in the game somehow).
2- Someone who has a strong indication of having a power role (i. e. cop).
3- Someone who is just way good at the game and is a threat to the existance of mafia.

There could be others, like incriminating people and such, but those are the most logical imo. Killing someone because you've suspected them ITT isn't really logical, it creates a link between you and that person that is unnecessary.

Based on what Golden said, it's probably 3, with maybe some shades of 1 or 2. Though I don't know how at that point of the game anyone could deduce Tranq is hard to lynch. The guy had like 2 posts.

This falls into the category of teammates discussing mechanics in the thread to give the appearance of no BTSC.

DDL says I'm weird and absent (but later says he feels better about me because I voted Nerolunar), that ika could be "scummy" in general, so lynching him is a bad idea, and then DDL backs off of gleam. In general, this is a fence-sitting kind of post.

He says gleam's posts "aren't as bad" in the beginning, but maintains suspicion in the end, saying "The guy is all over the place and it's not a civ place." We know gleam was indeed a civilian, so him being "all over the place" was genuine for him.

The morning of the lynch, DDL casts a vote against RadicalFuzz, saying:

RadicalFuzz is fishy. He is just staying in the sidelines asking people random questions and commenting on what is currently going on, but he hasn't actually posted any suspicions of his own. He is aware of what's going on, but is not actually participating. Feels like blending.

But:

Might come back to gleam at the end of the day if it's still between him and ika (I don't want to lynch ika), but for now I wanna stop tunneling for a while.

DDL says he might go back to gleam if it's between him and ika. Note that he specifically mentions not wanting to lynch ika, but the implication of "if it's still between him and ika" is that DDL doesn't really want to lynch Fuzz either.

This is where DDL responds to Fuzz's "reads." Apparently satisfied with the response, DDL goes back to gleam.

Here, DDL calls Sloonei the "civ captain" and "pretty rational and professional-like." That's a bold declaration for Day 2.

He suggests, jokingly or not, a three-way tie, but then says:

I don't like the idea of starting another wagon, when we already have 3, with less than an hour for the phase to end.

This is the PERFECT opportunity for scum to save each other if they need to.

If you don't like the current wagons then tough luck. Try to push another one earlier next day.

First, he doesn't like the idea of a fourth wagon. At the time, the three wagons were gleam, ika, and me. agleaminranks wasn't a cop, and I'm not a cop. And ika so far still exists in the gloomy realm of Vompattiland. However, the sudden fourth wagon was a successful cop lynch.

DDL insists that its the PERFECT opportunity for cops to save themselves. That proved not to be the case.

But that last line is the worst. It paralyzes independent thinking on the part of the civilians. "Choose among the options available to you, and wait your turn." Furthermore, aren't three-way ties just as good of an opportunity for cops to save their own? ika even had more visible votes than Fuzz.

DDL's vote for Fuzz is one of capitulation rather than being in agreement with the (new) points raised against Fuzz. He doesn't raise his earlier points against Fuzz when he voted for, and makes it seem like voting for gleam would still be the better choice.

Yeah sorry Fuzz. My suspicion on you is not strong, but I'm not wasting my vote. You are still the guy who only posted reads when people asked you to.

I still support a gleam lynch if you guys wanna go back to that though.

Someone asked about this, but I don't know what "Turbo Mafia" is.

That's Day 2: A highly reluctant lynch of Fuzz, when Fuzz was never a strong suspect of his in the first place.

[Golf]

Black Rock said nothing about Fuzz before he was lynched, and didn't appear to be present as the CFD developed (she left just before it started to rev up). Her earlier focus seemed to be more on Turnip Head and to a lesser degree Epignosis. I do like the way she responded to the results of the CFD/Fuzz flip though, at least in that her perspectives align well with my own other than the same sig read I've disagreed with nearly everyone else on. I don't get overwhelmingly good vibes in the absence of interactions with the dead mafioso, but I wouldn't call her a suspect either. Leaning slightly townward.

Even if her votes are, so far, three times Turnip two times Quin? Haven't read the posts, but slightly tunnelly, just by looking at the stats.

[Draconus]

Also, I think I'm seeing the case on DDL now. I believe there's been enough said there to warrant a vote for now. This could change, though.

When you're available, please answer one question: what changed? This was yesterday, still on Day 5:

I had a comment on DDL because he's being brought up as a lynch candidate: I feel good about him because of his actions surrounding the Fuzz situation.

I'm really tired of being logged out after typing up my responses. I'm sorry, I did have a response for you but I have to come back later.

[Prisoner 509378]

Black Rock said nothing about Fuzz before he was lynched, and didn't appear to be present as the CFD developed (she left just before it started to rev up). Her earlier focus seemed to be more on Turnip Head and to a lesser degree Epignosis. I do like the way she responded to the results of the CFD/Fuzz flip though, at least in that her perspectives align well with my own other than the same sig read I've disagreed with nearly everyone else on. I don't get overwhelmingly good vibes in the absence of interactions with the dead mafioso, but I wouldn't call her a suspect either. Leaning slightly townward.

Even if her votes are, so far, three times Turnip two times Quin? Haven't read the posts, but slightly tunnelly, just by looking at the stats.

I grant actually that I forgot to look at her votes. Thanks.

The TH votes don't really bother me at face value. On Day 1 the wagons were all relatively small, and the lynch was quite close. Her vote was planted on TH and he finished with only two, but the eventual lynchee only had 4 votes. The Day 2 vote came before the development of the CFD drama, and she didn't return until after it had fully transpired. It's a bit uninspiring that she went for someone who seemed like an unlikely lynch, but that's just how some people prefer to vote.

[Prisoner 509378]

I don't want Epi's expanded case against DDL getting paged and drowned out by my continued reads, so here's a link.

[Epignosis]

I for one, look forward to hearing what Blondy has to say about this one.

He basically gave me a pat reply and then has kind of stayed out of the way, none of which have changed my mind. But, you've got to fight the battles people are willing to fight, and no one is biting, so I've moved on... I'm assuming we're heading back to the slammer soon, anyway, so it's not like it's my problem!

I gave you a truthful reply, not a dissertation. I'm not going to spend the limited time I have repeating what I've already said.

Do you even know what a dissertation is, Chronos?

[Golf]

I don't want Epi's expanded case against DDL getting paged and drowned out by my continued reads, so here's a link.

I reckon homie41 will bring it back to the surface eventually.

[Prisoner 509378]

Looking at Mongoose/Draconus (Mongconus):

Spoiler: show

So last night I check in here after 5 sometime, with like 25 mins to go. I start reading through the posts and start creating my own vote and I lose wireless (I was in the car on the way to yoga, don't worry, I wasn't driving). so then I tried at least voting 20 times, but when I pressed enter each time, it would not go through and would just give me one of those dead pages you get when you don't have wireless signal. I even borrowed a friend's phone, but I guess at some time I had changed my password, so I couldn't log in that way. I had it resent to my email, but then I'm back to the problem that I couldnt access my email on my phone because...no wireless. Let's just say I was a very stressed out, anxious kitty by the time we arrived at yoga.

I just want to empathize with those espousing how playstyle will get you in trouble when it's totally not indicative of alignment -- I can 1000% relate to this discussion.

I'm only highlighting this to indicate the technical difficulties Mongoose was having prior to her requesting replacement. She said nothing about Fuzz, and indeed seemed to be out of the thread for the most part after the pre-game phase. I don't read into that either way. She voted for TH on Day 1 and missed the vote on Day 2.

It appears Draconus was insanified on Day 4. I don't see a role to attribute this too other than "SECRET ROLE". If that's the cause, then it says nothing about Drac's alignment.

Otherwise there's not much here. He missed the vote on Day 3 and self-voted on Day 4, so who knows what to do with that nonsense. I really don't have much of a read at all on Mongconus -- he could be town or mafia and it wouldn't surprise me. He needs to get more involved ASAP or his eventual lynch might be inevitable with this kind of post history.

[Prisoner 509378]

Let's catch up with The Second Matthew and his predecessor sprityo:

The latter was unavailable to play and didn't do anything. Moving on.

Spoiler: show

Marmot, come out and play and answer my question. How'd you know I misunderstood Golden?

Matt 2.0's earliest work after taking over was mostly to go after Metal (?????) Marsh89 after an abrupt reversal in his perspective of Golden. This kind of attack is exactly what I'm used to seeing with Matt -- a very specific moment in discussion which pings him that he grips hard and doesn't let go of (especially when it's one based on his own content, or this case Matt 1.0's content). From a meta standpoint, I like this.

Spoiler: show

Soneji If you think Golden is so scummy that you vote for him why not vote to save me? the player he is pushing you're basically throwing away your vote.

@Matt Explain your lynch?

linki: Well that sucks you'll need to save me instead.

I think Marmot is a bad Marmot. And going through his ISO, I saw you and him were agreeing on some things. Doesn't give me a good vibe.

Also, Long Con is a Golden light green read and his train was picking up steam, and I trust Golden.[/quote]

Matt switched his vote to sig though, and gave the this as an explanation. I don't think it makes any sense to vote for sig because of his dealings with the top suspect instead of merely voting for the top suspect. I do, however, see townies make this [as I see it] mistake constantly in Mafia games. As the day continued he engaged in a sort of showdown with Metalmarsh, and ended up leaving his final vote on sig. It's consistent with his suspicions even if I don't agree with it.

Ever since then he's been focused on lynching ika over a perceived slip. That's also very Matt.

Spoiler: show

Omg, may we finally lynch ika?

DDL

What's this though?

----------

Without Fuzz-relevant content I won't jump in bed with Matt, but I wouldn't say I find him especially suspicious. The last vote needs an explanation though, because it seems like intentional nonsense.

[Rachel Green]

I for one, look forward to hearing what Blondy has to say about this one.

He basically gave me a pat reply and then has kind of stayed out of the way, none of which have changed my mind. But, you've got to fight the battles people are willing to fight, and no one is biting, so I've moved on... I'm assuming we're heading back to the slammer soon, anyway, so it's not like it's my problem!

I gave you a truthful reply, not a dissertation. I'm not going to spend the limited time I have repeating what I've already said.

Do you even know what a dissertation is, Chronos?

Who is Chronos? Honest question. And why be snarky?

[Prisoner 509378]

Hi Serge. I'm going to stare at your posts now.

Spoiler: show

I like thellama73's in-depth post about why he thinks Luffy is a cop. I don't necessarily agree with it but that amount of perception doesn't reek of scum to me. If he held on to just the "this game is hard to win for cops" thing, I may have voted for him.

I think ika is acting like a very naughty deer caught between the headlights. I honestly don't remember the case against gleam anymore, and the one against Epignosis half-built on his meta, which I don't take stock on.

Um, someone tell me how to vote.

ika

Does that work?

His presence prior to the Fuzz lynch was limited primarily to Day 2, but he missed the actual CFD sequence. He primarily seemed to be trying to catch up with the game however he could. The above post was his most substantive contribution.

The highlighted bit confuses me. Earlier, Serge had pooh-poohed llama's commentary on DDL's "this game is hard to win for cops" thing. In this post he endorses llama for his DDL case but doesn't agree with it -- suggesting it would have been stronger if it was just limited to that earliest commentary. This doesn't make sense. I could see this as a discombobulated effort to avoid voting for DDL so he could jump aboard the easier ika wagon, which would be a telling thing if DDL is indeed a baddie. We'll see on that front.

Spoiler: show

I'm not familiar with CFD and seeing it in action made me think that the traitor plan would have had a chance to work if you're all this efficient and easy to rally.

I do not think that the scum team would all rally to save a teammate in a day as early as this, with the number of players available.

As for scum being on Fuzz's bandwagon, I think that's more likely. SVS's post against Fuzz was brief but enough to produce the CFD, and if only a few of the cops were online at that time then what better way to earn points as a civ? Also, the poll doesn't even show Fuzz as the one that has the most votes. Stroke of luck?

That being said, I still don't have a firm grasp of the details of the events leading to the lynch.

PS: DrWilgy why are you voting at night?

Well let me start with you. The poll would have me believe you voted first for Fuzz, and there seems to be a case since Fuzz didn't even have the most votes by the end of the day. Maybe you were even confident that the CFD won't work. Where I'm from, these things don't happen. We pick one of the leading lynches, proceed to lynch, and pick up the pieces from that. However, I am more inclined to believe you're civ since I don't have any erstwhile bad gut feel from you before or after that lynch.

SVS is a civ. He went for that Fuzz bit and ran with it, and unless Fuzz wanted to be bussed I wouldn't dream of doing it as scum. With the drought of replacements and the size of the game maye Fuzz wanted to be replaced and since that didn't look possible, maybe he wanted to go as an asset to his team. There is a possibility, but it is very remote.

The people who jumped at ika on the last moment probably really want ika to get lynched.

The people who jumped on Fuzz at the last moment didn't want ika or gleam to get lynched, but that begs the questionquestion why not vote for Epignosis whom I recall has a few votes(two, I think) as a headstart. That being said, I don't recall how many votes Fuzz had before.

Serge seems to be all over the place in these two posts. The highlighted portions don't align logically as far as I can see. In the second post he exonerates SVS based on the same premise essentially that he used to cast suspicion on other people in the first post. Perhaps he's giving SVS a great deal more credit for having "started" the CFD, but it's quite a jump still to suggest that the ones who followed it should be seen as the biggest suspects to emerge from the scenario. It doesn't add up.

Spoiler: show

I'm here to fulfill my promise to SVS regarding the CFD of day 2.

Luffy and sig looked pretty bad after the flip but I think the latter is more reminiscent of of a skeptical townie imploring for everyone to stop and think about what they're doing. Even though Fuzz flipped scum, I felt like his intent wasn't misguided. Luffy on the other hand posted that bit where he basically said it was prime time for scum to save their friends, when in reality something like the CFD doesn't usually happen, and if they do, they're probably not initiated by scum.

Which brings us to Golden. Even though Turnip Head Was the first person to voice the CFD, I think Golden is the instigator. His prime candidates were Matt and Wilgy but SVS presented a case against Fuzz and he went with that, but not immediately I feel.

I don't like ika's posts where he posted let's lynch you next(I think directed at sig and Epignosis). As for Silverwolf, she first stated that she didn't think the CFD was a good idea but she jumped in anyway, even appearing to be so sure that Fuzz was scum when Fuzz appeared to try and dig himself out of the hole.

Epignosis looked like a fence-sitter along with Sloonei, but Sloonei eventually voted for Fuzz. Also, I seem to recall Sloonei went out for a bit and came back surprised with the Fuzz bandwagon.

Turnip Head's most memorable role in all this are his emoticons and one-worded replies which were to me hilarious.

I still honestly can't figure out zebra, Enrique seems to be content on calling everyone a cop(Sloonei, then me after the flip)

That's how I interpreted the last hour of the 2nd day. Haven't caught up with the rest of you, I will try tomorrow.

I don't understand this either. He exonerated SVS for starting the CFD, acknowledged TH placed the first vote (without taking a stance), but still called Golden the "instigator" in a negative tone to describe his suspicion of him. I don't follow this thought process at all. Serge I really need you to drop by and tell me what was going on in your head.

-------------

Of the UTR group, Serge looks like the most viable suspect so far to me.

[indiglo]

Looking at Mongoose/Draconus (Mongconus):

Spoiler: show

So last night I check in here after 5 sometime, with like 25 mins to go. I start reading through the posts and start creating my own vote and I lose wireless (I was in the car on the way to yoga, don't worry, I wasn't driving). so then I tried at least voting 20 times, but when I pressed enter each time, it would not go through and would just give me one of those dead pages you get when you don't have wireless signal. I even borrowed a friend's phone, but I guess at some time I had changed my password, so I couldn't log in that way. I had it resent to my email, but then I'm back to the problem that I couldnt access my email on my phone because...no wireless. Let's just say I was a very stressed out, anxious kitty by the time we arrived at yoga.

I just want to empathize with those espousing how playstyle will get you in trouble when it's totally not indicative of alignment -- I can 1000% relate to this discussion.

I'm only highlighting this to indicate the technical difficulties Mongoose was having prior to her requesting replacement. She said nothing about Fuzz, and indeed seemed to be out of the thread for the most part after the pre-game phase. I don't read into that either way. She voted for TH on Day 1 and missed the vote on Day 2.

It appears Draconus was insanified on Day 4. I don't see a role to attribute this too other than "SECRET ROLE". If that's the cause, then it says nothing about Drac's alignment.

Otherwise there's not much here. He missed the vote on Day 3 and self-voted on Day 4, so who knows what to do with that nonsense. I really don't have much of a read at all on Mongconus -- he could be town or mafia and it wouldn't surprise me. He needs to get more involved ASAP or his eventual lynch might be inevitable with this kind of post history.

Yes, Draconus self-voted that day, the insanification was a punishment for that from the hosts. Still doesn't say anything about alignment, but you seem like a fellow who likes to know details and context.

[Matt]

Why does intentional nonsense need explaining? Derp.

Let's catch some bad guys!

[Prisoner 509378]

soneji's turn:

He's been present very inconsistently, so it's hard to draw a ton from it.

Big catch-up post on Day 3

I like this post, at least from the standpoint of getting any kind of read on soneji. I don't think he put his vote in the best place, but I understand his mindset and I think a lot of the points he made in this thing were sound and valid. It looks to me like a time-starved townie doing his absolute best to make himself useful somehow. I get the same impression from this post.

Spoiler: show

Somehow I managed to skip a large post by Soneji.

He makes a good point on Mongoose, though in the last quote, I have to say the fact she is asking about how mafia is played here is because she is back after a long hiatus, during which a lot of people from different communities came here and change the usual playstyle.

See I didn't feel great about that Soneji post. And looking at his 7 post ISO he seems to pick a different target every day. Odd.

What is odd about it? On day one I voted DDL as up to where I was his distracting talk of traitors looked to be the best lead. Day 2 I read the current discussion while skimming back as best I could in the time I had and I agreed with the case on Ika most. While I could have continued with that, its really a shell of how I best operate, reading thoroughly from beginning to end and pointing out posts of note. Without prior behavior to compare to, making proper reads on people, especially ones I don't know like I do on NF, can be rather difficult. I have always been a lone wolf operator, making my own cases and pushing my own leads above all else.

I went with Golden yesterday because up until the point I had read he was the most suspicious, with DDL in second and Ika on a backburner after the Fuzz lynch. Mongoose is the most scummy from my current reading, with DDL looking less scummy than he did prior.

TH challenged soneji for one of his larger posts and this was his response. I like the tone. I don't agree with a lot of his reads or how they progressed, but I think I can understand them which is more important.

His posts continue as such until the current phase. He voted for DDL on Day 1, ika on Day 2, Golden on Day 3, and Mongconus on Day 4. He was not present during the Day 2 CFD to Fuzz. If there's anything disconcerting, it's that he hasn't missed any votes despite his availability being so sporadic -- that could suggest he's paying closer attention than he lets on. That's a reach though.

-------------

For a guy with only 13 posts, I feel pretty decently about soneji as a civilian read.

[Prisoner 509378]

Yes, Draconus self-voted that day, the insanification was a punishment for that from the hosts. Still doesn't say anything about alignment, but you seem like a fellow who likes to know details and context.

I definitely do, thank you for the clarification.

[Prisoner 509378]

Why does intentional nonsense need explaining? Derp.

Let's catch some bad guys!

If I don't understand something, I'd prefer to change that and understand it. Understanding things > not understanding things

So please do me a solid and gimme that explanation.

[Matt]

Why does intentional nonsense need explaining? Derp.

Let's catch some bad guys!

If I don't understand something, I'd prefer to change that and understand it. Understanding things > not understanding things

So please do me a solid and gimme that explanation.

Funsies.

Tbh, I was a crybaby wreck once Wilgy and his dastardly Daisy crew destroyed 1.0, and since I've come back in, just havin' some fun.

But I also think DDL is a good possibility of being bad. Someone brought up how he usually invites sussing, but in this game, he said "fine lynch me" or whatever and how that wasn't like him. I don't know DDL well enough to know if that's true, but if that's what most are saying, I'll take their word for it.

But yeah, I think ika made a slippy slip slip and I hope he's gone soon too.

My current scumdar says their team consists of...

Fuzz
ika
DDL
Golden
Scotty
..........either Epig or Silverwolf

[Matt]

Oh, and IF Golden is bad, then I suppose you can replace one of those others with da sloonei.

[thellama73]

Hi Serge. I'm going to stare at your posts now.

Spoiler: show

I like thellama73's in-depth post about why he thinks Luffy is a cop. I don't necessarily agree with it but that amount of perception doesn't reek of scum to me. If he held on to just the "this game is hard to win for cops" thing, I may have voted for him.

I think ika is acting like a very naughty deer caught between the headlights. I honestly don't remember the case against gleam anymore, and the one against Epignosis half-built on his meta, which I don't take stock on.

Um, someone tell me how to vote.

ika

Does that work?

His presence prior to the Fuzz lynch was limited primarily to Day 2, but he missed the actual CFD sequence. He primarily seemed to be trying to catch up with the game however he could. The above post was his most substantive contribution.

The highlighted bit confuses me. Earlier, Serge had pooh-poohed llama's commentary on DDL's "this game is hard to win for cops" thing. In this post he endorses llama for his DDL case but doesn't agree with it -- suggesting it would have been stronger if it was just limited to that earliest commentary. This doesn't make sense. I could see this as a discombobulated effort to avoid voting for DDL so he could jump aboard the easier ika wagon, which would be a telling thing if DDL is indeed a baddie. We'll see on that front.

Spoiler: show

I'm not familiar with CFD and seeing it in action made me think that the traitor plan would have had a chance to work if you're all this efficient and easy to rally.

I do not think that the scum team would all rally to save a teammate in a day as early as this, with the number of players available.

As for scum being on Fuzz's bandwagon, I think that's more likely. SVS's post against Fuzz was brief but enough to produce the CFD, and if only a few of the cops were online at that time then what better way to earn points as a civ? Also, the poll doesn't even show Fuzz as the one that has the most votes. Stroke of luck?

That being said, I still don't have a firm grasp of the details of the events leading to the lynch.

PS: DrWilgy why are you voting at night?

Well let me start with you. The poll would have me believe you voted first for Fuzz, and there seems to be a case since Fuzz didn't even have the most votes by the end of the day. Maybe you were even confident that the CFD won't work. Where I'm from, these things don't happen. We pick one of the leading lynches, proceed to lynch, and pick up the pieces from that. However, I am more inclined to believe you're civ since I don't have any erstwhile bad gut feel from you before or after that lynch.

SVS is a civ. He went for that Fuzz bit and ran with it, and unless Fuzz wanted to be bussed I wouldn't dream of doing it as scum. With the drought of replacements and the size of the game maye Fuzz wanted to be replaced and since that didn't look possible, maybe he wanted to go as an asset to his team. There is a possibility, but it is very remote.

The people who jumped at ika on the last moment probably really want ika to get lynched.

The people who jumped on Fuzz at the last moment didn't want ika or gleam to get lynched, but that begs the questionquestion why not vote for Epignosis whom I recall has a few votes(two, I think) as a headstart. That being said, I don't recall how many votes Fuzz had before.

Serge seems to be all over the place in these two posts. The highlighted portions don't align logically as far as I can see. In the second post he exonerates SVS based on the same premise essentially that he used to cast suspicion on other people in the first post. Perhaps he's giving SVS a great deal more credit for having "started" the CFD, but it's quite a jump still to suggest that the ones who followed it should be seen as the biggest suspects to emerge from the scenario. It doesn't add up.

Spoiler: show

I'm here to fulfill my promise to SVS regarding the CFD of day 2.

Luffy and sig looked pretty bad after the flip but I think the latter is more reminiscent of of a skeptical townie imploring for everyone to stop and think about what they're doing. Even though Fuzz flipped scum, I felt like his intent wasn't misguided. Luffy on the other hand posted that bit where he basically said it was prime time for scum to save their friends, when in reality something like the CFD doesn't usually happen, and if they do, they're probably not initiated by scum.

Which brings us to Golden. Even though Turnip Head Was the first person to voice the CFD, I think Golden is the instigator. His prime candidates were Matt and Wilgy but SVS presented a case against Fuzz and he went with that, but not immediately I feel.

I don't like ika's posts where he posted let's lynch you next(I think directed at sig and Epignosis). As for Silverwolf, she first stated that she didn't think the CFD was a good idea but she jumped in anyway, even appearing to be so sure that Fuzz was scum when Fuzz appeared to try and dig himself out of the hole.

Epignosis looked like a fence-sitter along with Sloonei, but Sloonei eventually voted for Fuzz. Also, I seem to recall Sloonei went out for a bit and came back surprised with the Fuzz bandwagon.

Turnip Head's most memorable role in all this are his emoticons and one-worded replies which were to me hilarious.

I still honestly can't figure out zebra, Enrique seems to be content on calling everyone a cop(Sloonei, then me after the flip)

That's how I interpreted the last hour of the 2nd day. Haven't caught up with the rest of you, I will try tomorrow.

I don't understand this either. He exonerated SVS for starting the CFD, acknowledged TH placed the first vote (without taking a stance), but still called Golden the "instigator" in a negative tone to describe his suspicion of him. I don't follow this thought process at all. Serge I really need you to drop by and tell me what was going on in your head.

-------------

Of the UTR group, Serge looks like the most viable suspect so far to me.

I want to remake my point that when I made my initial case on Dragon, Serge was notable for saying how good my case was and then promptly changing the subject, voting elsewhere. If DDL flips bad, I bet Serge is on his team.

[chaindeath]

Matt 2.0

[Matt]

Matt 2.0

[Prisoner 509378]

I've had good vibes about llama purely from my gut, so I'll check my intuition against thread data:

Spoiler: show

Gleam makes a good point. The normal result of players tying for a lynch vote would be both of them dying, no?

Um... no. In what universe has that ever been true?[/quote]

Assertively rejects a semi-question from Fuzz about typical tied lynch rules.

Spoiler: show

Llama can you elaborate on your conclusion that Luffy's posts scream "cop?"

Sure.

The whole Golden vs Matt argument feels like a waste of time.

Just my two cents.

Steering. This is a big pattern I see in Luffy. He is very interested in pumping people for opinion, GTH reads, explanations, and speculations on mechanics. He is constantly trying to get conversation going on a variety of topics... but the topics are of his choosing. When people discuss something he hasn't steered them towards, he tries to kill it.

Here's another example, where he quickly dismissed my suspicion of him.

Not sure if serious or just llama.

Here's another example, where disucssion of the lynch wasn't going where he wanted it to, with people complaining about his leading them by the noses.

Seriously guys, not gonna deny I had some influence in that lynch, but why are half the people on it saying they voted because "DDL said so"? A little more independent thinking, please? And I didn't even vote for Diiny myself, for fuck's sake. Worse is that the two guys are apparently players who always get lynched as civs for doing stupid crap, so I'm like "how do I even deal with them"?

What I am seeing is a very manipulative game. He seems like a great participant, because he always gets discussion going, but he controls the direction of the discussion and squashes it when it displeases him.

Fuzz asked llama to expand on his suspicion of DDL, and this was his response. This is obviously more about DDL than it is about Fuzz, but that Fuzz felt the need to prompt this might mean there's a connection to be drawn between he, llama, and/or DDL. As of right now I would lean towards DDL being the suspicious one from this, but this might be worth returning to later either way.

llama wasn't around during the CFD at the end of Day 2. His vote that day went to DDL (it was the 2nd final vote placed of the phase). This could perhaps be seen as slightly contradictory given his more recent dejection over pursuing a DDL lynch that he didn't feel would take hold with other players. I am not concerned though because this vote was placed so early, and he was indeed absent from the thread when the vote switching started to envelop discussion.

Spoiler: show

SVS is right. Golden is the civviest of civs, and I will go to bat for him on that.

This is surprising. I thought llama was opposed to people broadcasting town reads. I think this post is strategically fine and dandy, but I wouldn't have anticipated it coming from this guy. Perhaps a buddying scenario can be drawn out.

He spent most of Days 3 and 4 trying to mount support for a DDL lynch, but it seems that support didn't really materialize (or that other players were the focus instead). Actually that has continued into this day phase too.

-----------------------

I think the content in the thread mostly supports my gut read. I have no beefs with llama.

[Prisoner 509378]

chaindeath is the last ISO I'm doing tonight.

He did exactly one thing on Day 1, and that was vote for Long Con.

Spoiler: show

A peculiar vote in the poll: chaindeath (26) for Dragon D. Luffy. Chain was here, and clearly formed an opinion on a player who was in the thick of things during the CFD and put a vote on him, but he didn't say anything or get involved himself in the Fire Drill. Does he care to explain, chaindeath?

Chaindeath will gladly explain his position, he was on page 38 when he posted his vote. He feels that a vote should be formed based on what a player, himself included, feels at the moment of voting. He also would like to mention that he stated that he was behind on reading and the "Chinese fire drill" voting started later.

Matt is probably my dark horse lynch option, if we're all gonna start throwing names into the Chinese Fire Drill pool.

Linki: I see we have started doing that! And Matt has other takers.

This was is on page 40. He was speed reading after he finished the post and voted but was unable to justify jumping into this "fire drill". Also as another point, he was totally unsure why others were voting for fuzz for most of the time he was reading up on the forum, though it is now evident.

Hope this clears it up for you.

Sloonei for the longest time chaindeath thought that your picture was a stack of pancakes with raspberries piled high on it.

One curious note about chain is that he was present during the CFD and cast a vote (for DDL). He said nothing though, and Sloonei prodded him about that. I find chain's response strategically dubious but not necessarily suspicious. I can believe that he wanted to read the entire thread before joining the current conversation (even though I think that is often a bad idea when one is really far behind). Some people play this way. He stayed true to his bad read on DDL through Day 3, but his final vote fell on Nerolunar. He explained why [url="http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 38#p243938]here[/url].

He responded to a number of points made against him here. It's a little difficult to follow given the formatting, but I appreciate the effort and the tone he conveyed.

His votes: Day 1 - LC, 2 - DDL, 3 - Nero, 4 - N/A

---------------

I see no glaring issues with chaindeath. I'm not super confident in him as a town read, but I think he'd be a poor lynch today at least.

[Prisoner 509378]

Matt 2.0

This warrants explanation though.

[Prisoner 509378]

EBWOP to fix the link.

One curious note about chain is that he was present during the CFD and cast a vote (for DDL). He said nothing though, and Sloonei prodded him about that. I find chain's response strategically dubious but not necessarily suspicious. I can believe that he wanted to read the entire thread before joining the current conversation (even though I think that is often a bad idea when one is really far behind). Some people play this way. He stayed true to his bad read on DDL through Day 3, but his final vote fell on Nerolunar. He explained why here.

[Saito]

Since there are no ties for me to break, I will toss my vote in to DDL.

[Prisoner 509378]

I think the last player I need to look at is Turnip Head. Hopefully I have time. For now I have to step away; I should be available as the deadline approaches.

[thellama73]

This is surprising. I thought llama was opposed to people broadcasting town reads. I think this post is strategically fine and dandy, but I wouldn't have anticipated it coming from this guy. Perhaps a buddying scenario can be drawn out.

I really only have a problem with it when there are multiple mafia teams, since it gives them a way not to hit each other by mistake. In a game like this, the police know who the civs are, so announcing it doesn't change anything.

[Turnip Head]

I'm down with a DDL lynch. He's been a slight ping on me all game, though I've found that I can't really explain why. I am surprised that he's gotten so many votes on a Day where sig still lives and breathes, but I attribute that to the stellar participation of our prison gang and the persistence of Llama I'm glad to see so many of the prisoners have taken their jobs seriously, they have reintegrated into society with aplomb.

Sorry for not being around much this phase, I've been battling a sickness for over a week now and didn't feel like playing mafia all that much.

Dragon. D Luffy

[Turnip Head]

Dat Warden vote for sig... lol.

I'd also be okay with Boomslang receiving more scrutiny. He's been a non-entity since replacing into Enrique's meltdown.

[Golf]

Choo choo

[Gunther]

Care to do any gunt-to-head reads at this time, Mr. 509?

[Golden]

I have to go, I have to visit my family and my mistress. Looks like homie50's got this, he'll share his results with us homies later and then we can contribute to lynchin' some good ol' scum. Hopefully the Warden.

Golden is le annoying.

If I could accomplish one thing, lynching the Warden would be glorious. That jerk put us through hell.

Golden should maybe quit trying to assign prisoners to specific people? Even if he's sure they are who he thinks they are. I can see where Golden might think that his naming of people should be seen as his way of saying hi, but a) some of us are pretty good mimics and b) others of us are pretty sure smart people will figure things out soon enough anyway and c) the temptation to break the rules and confirm or deny might be too great for some of the prisoners. None of the prisoners want another LC type shooting to happen. Our host is Help us help you. and finally d) since prisoners can neither confirm nor deny AND stay alive (see point c) not talking about prisoner identy when someone names us, leaves us in the position where others are reading us as x player whether we are or not. We can not confirm. We can not deny. And that impression could be false. That prisoner could be manipulating you. And now the thread is going to read prisoner y as player x just because it was suggested. That prisoner you name could be a different prisoner and can't tell you you are wrong. This is a very dangerous road.

It's not a dangerous road, but besides you are complaining about something I haven't done at all since last time you complained about it, so whats your point?

[Gunther]

I have to go, I have to visit my family and my mistress. Looks like homie50's got this, he'll share his results with us homies later and then we can contribute to lynchin' some good ol' scum. Hopefully the Warden.

Golden is le annoying.

If I could accomplish one thing, lynching the Warden would be glorious. That jerk put us through hell.

Golden should maybe quit trying to assign prisoners to specific people? Even if he's sure they are who he thinks they are. I can see where Golden might think that his naming of people should be seen as his way of saying hi, but a) some of us are pretty good mimics and b) others of us are pretty sure smart people will figure things out soon enough anyway and c) the temptation to break the rules and confirm or deny might be too great for some of the prisoners. None of the prisoners want another LC type shooting to happen. Our host is Help us help you. and finally d) since prisoners can neither confirm nor deny AND stay alive (see point c) not talking about prisoner identy when someone names us, leaves us in the position where others are reading us as x player whether we are or not. We can not confirm. We can not deny. And that impression could be false. That prisoner could be manipulating you. And now the thread is going to read prisoner y as player x just because it was suggested. That prisoner you name could be a different prisoner and can't tell you you are wrong. This is a very dangerous road.

It's not a dangerous road, but besides you are complaining about something I haven't done at all since last time you complained about it, so whats your point?

You know, Golden, just zip it.

[Prisoner 509378]

Care to do any gunt-to-head reads at this time, Mr. 509?

If we have enough people present and willing to make it worth our while. We'd have to make it quick though, because we have about two hours remaining and I wouldn't want GTH reads devouring the EOD sequence.

[indiglo]

You know, Golden, just zip it.

Golden's pants were unzipped?? How embarrassing! I'm certain he'll be glad you pointed that out. Can you imagine walking around all day like that?


Anyhoo, here's where I'm at lynch-wise. I am ok with DDL. My strongest 2nd place would be Enrique/Boom. I keep coming back to one thing, and the more I stew on it, the more it seems to mean to me. I shall post this, then go find the thing I keep coming back to.

[Gunther]

Shoot. I was hoping Golden would engage in a tussle with me. Perhaps he knew where I was going with that. *puts pinkie to his mouth*

Seriously though, let's do some gun-to-frickin'-head reads yo. They don't let us have guns in the "slammer," so let's get our kicks in while we can, okay?

[Golden]

Of the UTR group, Serge looks like the most viable suspect so far to me.

Like this particular iso, especially if DDL is lynched and comes back bad.

[Golf]

I have a better idea.

CFD Golden the Warden.

[Golden]

This is surprising. I thought llama was opposed to people broadcasting town reads. I think this post is strategically fine and dandy, but I wouldn't have anticipated it coming from this guy. Perhaps a buddying scenario can be drawn out.

Llama knows that I don't believe in target painting, so he can freely do it to me, even if it is simultaneously a friendly dig. I find that consistent with llama's personality.

[Prisoner 509378]

I have a better idea.

CFD Golden the Warden.

I'd love to lynch the Warden, but I really don't know who he/she is. I honestly don't know why Golden should be considered a top suspect for that role, or even a suspect at all.

[Gunther]

Golden, I told you to zip it. Now shh!

[indiglo]

Enrique in Tree Mafia

He was lynched as the cop. It made him angry. I don't think this individual likes receiving votes in general, and this makes twice that he essentially calls everyone who suspects him stupid directly or indirectly. I'm not here to criticize, I'm only drawing the meta comparison. In this case he really didn't provide a good reason that I can readily identify to town read him. My mind keeps returning to this post, which I think can be read at face value to decide whether he's a candidate:

Spoiler: show

lol enrique and sig just look like they are co-ordinating a plan to take sloonei out, to me. Thats what it looks like.

Sloonei would for me be at 'confirmed civ' on the rainbow. He was first in and a critical piece of the Fuzz lynch. I will be astonished if he ends up being a cop. Astonished! It would probably be the most astonishing flip I would ever have seen! But I'm sure he isn't.

Golden you have bad, bad views lmao.

Lynch me tomorrow I don't have the time to play anyway. But Sloonei is bad, I called it already.

btw I was the first Fuzz voter

linki- as a game mechanic Golden, this isn't new

And this is another huge reason you're so suspicious. You were the first Fuzz voter, away from all the other bandwagons before the CFD was even on anyone's mind. As soon as it started you bailed. Why? What was your vote doing there if you didn't actually want to lynch him?

I was creating an unnecessary connection to my teammate on Day 2 because I fell like it.

Was he, in his frustrated state, waving his WIFOM around in plain sight? Or was this sarcasm indicative of his playing trait which shows him treating everyone who suspects him like idiots?

I don't struggle to lean toward the former.

At first when I read over Enrique's posts in the other game, I didn't make the correlation. But this post from that other game:

I'm dead and I was the cop and all of you suck.

It didn't strike me much at first, because he was civ in that game. But the more I think about it, I still see a correlation, because he mad & frustrated and info dumped. And I think it's possible he did that in this game too, then took his ball and went home.

So for me it is down to DDL or Enrique/Boom. GTH


Linkapalooza~

[Golden]

Shoot. I was hoping Golden would engage in a tussle with me. Perhaps he knew where I was going with that. *puts pinkie to his mouth*

Seriously though, let's do some gun-to-frickin'-head reads yo. They don't let us have guns in the "slammer," so let's get our kicks in while we can, okay?

I am essentially ignoring all the prisoners who think I am the warden, since I am taking the view that none of them genuinely believe it, given its obvious bollocks. What's the value in getting involved in a tussle with someone who will apparently be gone tomorrow? I'm only interested in engaging with the ones who are of use to me in figuring out who the baddies are.

[indiglo]

Of the UTR group, Serge looks like the most viable suspect so far to me.

Like this particular iso, especially if DDL is lynched and comes back bad.

Yes. These are things I also think.



Also I left out the word *did* in my last post. Oops. Please to insert *did* in the proper place in there. Thank you.

[Golden]

@indi - one difference is that in tree info dumping was a legal rule and he was one of many people claiming to be the cop (but simply the truthful one). Enrique had good reason to be aggrieved at that particular lynch.

[Gunther]

Shoot. I was hoping Golden would engage in a tussle with me. Perhaps he knew where I was going with that. *puts pinkie to his mouth*

Seriously though, let's do some gun-to-frickin'-head reads yo. They don't let us have guns in the "slammer," so let's get our kicks in while we can, okay?

I am essentially ignoring all the prisoners who think I am the warden, since I am taking the view that none of them genuinely believe it, given its obvious bollocks. What's the value in getting involved in a tussle with someone who will apparently be gone tomorrow? I'm only interested in engaging with the ones who are of use to me in figuring out who the baddies are.

Talk to the hand, 'cause the face don't wanna hear it anymore, Mr. I'm Too Good To Talk To Prisoners. You ain't all that and a bag of potato chips. Don't go there, girlfriend. Mmhmm.

[indiglo]

Wrong again, it was the word *got*, not did. So now take out the *did* you inserted, and exchange it for *got*.


Link @ Golden ~ Ah, thank you. That helps. In that case, I'm not entirely sure what to take away out of that read.

[Sloonei]

Ok, so I found the post of Luffy's that gave me pause on suspecting him. I would love to get some more input on this.

During the CFD of Fuzz, Luffy put up some resistance. Gleam was his first choice (no judgment there ), but after a bit of time he decided to join us in the Fuzz lynch. I went back to read that whole section to get context. At this point, I believe Fuzz and ika were tied. Sloon offered up the option of switching to Matt 1.0. Then, Luffy responded like this:

Why would mafia Fuzz pop in at endgame and vote Ike unless he was saving Gleam/Epi if this was the case why ditch both those wagons? This is the scummiest CFD since the one I lead to stop me from getting lynched when I was almost confirmed mafia

@Epi he didn't

because he needed to vote, and maybe all three of them are townies and he just wanted to send any one of them to jail.

also i put my vote on Matt. How do we all feel about that?

No.

Godanmit guys, this isn't turbo mafia.

Which is where I'd like interpretations from others. (Maybe even those who have played with him before.) I liked this. Were he a teammate of Fuzz's... would he be more likely to try to get off the wagon and get folks to go elsewhere? Or would he ride it out and risk losing a teammate?

For further context, remember, Fuzz & ika were tied at this point, and when the poll ended (like 20 or 25 minutes after this comment from Luffy) ika actually had MORE votes than Fuzz.


Linkapalooza~

I understand your trepidation, but I don't agree. The basic premise of DDL's content at that point in the game wasn't "don't lynch Fuzz", but rather "don't CFD". This means to me that when Sloonei presented another alternative option (Matt), a baddie DDL would have had no choice but to stick to his prior strategic stance: that moving votes around is inherently a bad idea. Also, imagine the crap he'd be taking now if he had taken Sloonei up on this. The progression would have [potentially, from his mindset] been:

~ Sloonei and numerous others CFD to Fuzz
~ DDL protests the CFD movement of votes
~ Sloonei moves his vote to Matt and asks for feedback
~ DDL suddenly supports that vote movement, away from Fuzz (who was still at real risk of being lynched)
~ Fuzz is lynched and flips bad

This would mean that DDL's strategic stances were inconsistent, and that the only variable in existence to define the inconsistency would be whether or not Fuzz was the target of the moving votes. That would be a bright blinking neon sign that screams in capital letters "I'M FUZZ'S TEAM MATE". I think a baddie DDL is capable enough to grasp that problem and consciously avoid it -- as he would have done by opposing Sloonei's Matt vote. I think it was strategically necessary.

This sounds a lot like my reason for suspecting Quin.