MovingPictures07 wrote:Oh, and welcome to the game, K4J and MacDougall!
Addressing what
gleam said about me today (and his vote for me):
agleaminranks wrote:I voted for Matt because I didn't like his general attacks or discussion style up to that point, but I can't point to one specific post that highlights this uneasiness of mine; rather, it was more of a strong gut feel. I will analyze his posts more thoroughly and attempt to gain some insight into it.
There's also has to be some significance to sig being nightkilled. I will revisit his posts as well. I mentioned that I found it highly suspicious and unlikely that both sig and zebra were silenced and insanified, respectively. MP was one who voiced disdain for my claim, and while I agreed with him about disliking the zebra vote, he did not seem to agree with me. In fact, if sig were lynched after I made such a claim, it might put me in a bad position. If MP were mafia, it seems sensical to me to make such a nightkill to put the doubt upon myself in this case. I feel a little less good about MP all of a sudden. I don't have much concrete evidence other than that theory, but I don't like it much.
JJJ, I am inclined to disagree with llama and Mac. At least from my perspective (again, someone who has had no mafia experience with you before this game, I believe), it feels much more likely that a civilian would be willing to put that much time and effort into extensive ISOs regardless of the day. This game is very clearly serious at this point. There is much to discuss and much to analyze.
agleaminranks wrote:agleaminranks wrote:Going back, Matt has done little but tunnel Elohcin since the last night phase. But his retorts seem a little more serious this time, and he is pressing for serious questions.
I don't know how I feel about Elohcin at this point. She had one post that pinged me but her clarification made me backtrack that thought. I will try to get a read before the day ends.
Just glancing back over her posts, Elo feels like a frustrated civilian to me more than a baddie. I believe her claims about extra-game commitments, it does feel to me like she's just frustrated from answering a lot of the same questions over and over again. I am hesitant to place my vote on her today.
What does worry me more is MP. It's possible he was silenced, it's equally possible he's just busy, but it also seems a little convenient from my perspective his absence and antecedent remarks about speculated abilities and nightkills.
MovingPictures.
gleam, consider me confused with respect to your suspicion of me, so I hope you can elucidate.
Regarding the orange content above: From what I understand, your suspicion of me is coming purely from nightkill analysis (NKA). Is this correct? Can you explain how it would have put you "in a bad position"? I fail to follow you there. I don't see how that would be the case. And yes, I did disagree with you for what I thought were logical reasons; did you not find my speculation logical?
Regarding the yellow content above: How was my absence "convenient"? You didn't give me any chance to respond to your accusations considering I was silenced, which is something you mentioned right in here. I find this contrasts with
what you said about me earlier:
agleaminranks wrote:JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Elohcin wrote:I think this is crazy interesting. If we all decided to work together, civ and scum, and get rid of the process by voting his element each day, we could rid ourselves of him completely (or at least make him vanilla) so we don't have to deal with him at all really.
How much commitment would you be willing to offer to this notion of consistently lynching Process terms rather than players? You seem to be fully on board in your language here without must hesitance or consideration, which is a curious thing in the face of any suggestion that town and baddies openly coordinate on anything.
Elohcin, I don't think this is the right strategy to take. I'm thinking the Process is a single lynchable person with formes. I'll explain in a bit.
Catching up, DrumBeats, I am extremely against this idea of the scum and the civilians secretly teaming up. Roles are scarce but given that it's a side mission it's probably safe to assume that mafia has some nightkill ability. What the hell is there in the promise of not killing civilians? Ring of Gyges, folks. Even if given the opportunity to act in unison with the whole group, they have the option of completely screwing over the civilians with a nightkill from the anonymity of this arrangement. Civs could pretty easily be getting themselves into a bind. It sounds like an inherently bad situation where the civilians are going to get the short end of the stick.
Also, thoughts re: Cell. So, Cheerleader won the poll yesterday is my guess. Host says the Process will manifest itself in many ways. I'm guessing the Process is manifest in the Cheerleader form now, and it has that ability, and this is why it was revealed.
The Cheerleader role also specifies that it can protect a Process element from being nightkilled. And here Cell shows up in the daily lynch section.
It seems most likely that possibly the Process is either able to change elements on a daily basis and this will be what reveals the role, is my guess.
My original guess was that perhaps by voting the element it would force the Process to change to that element, but given that the Cheerleader role mentions nightkill protection from elements, they're capable of being killed, and this would then prevent the Process from becoming that element. So, we have one element on the lynch list which we could eliminate. But I wonder why Cell specifically shows up, versus other elements, or elements as a whole. Something to do with the Process's selection, or Host's discrimination? Maybe it's what element the Process is planning on taking tomorrow?
So, tl;dr, I think the elements are formes that the Process takes, rather than someone being behind it, as someone speculated earlier (don't remember who at the moment, sorry). I think we can vote to kill the element to prevent the Process from taking that forme later, but the Process is still someone out there amongst our ranks. Given that we don't know what the hell the role does and if this is true we're lynching essentially nobody, it's giving the civilians fewer opportunities to nab a baddie early on. In a bigger game I would want to focus more on preserving civilian life without eliminating indiscriminately, but I don't think we have that luxury here. Gotta get on the hunt, or the civs are in trouble. Look at Barry Lyndon.
I propose we skip the Cell voting for now. Focus on baddy hunting. Right now, the Process has a defensive element and is less able to do anything serious. This is the moment to strike.
Initial reads on the few actives on here have been pretty good. I can follow up more on that if anyone wants. DrumBeat's post about strategy seems to favor the baddies but it only strikes me as marginally pingy. I would be tempted to vote for them, but it's a little too early to have more than just a sinking suspicion on little evidence. Elohcin glomming on to that strategy might be something of note too.
You never elaborated on this point (so that would be nice), but considering I've had far and away the most posts of anyone all game, I presume by "few actives" that included me.
If so, then why did you feel pretty good about me then, and what about that feeling went away? The only reason I can find for your suspicion of me now is nightkill analysis, so I'm very confused as to why I would be deserving of your d2 vote over everyone else, especially if you had a positive view of me on d1.
Please explain ASAP.
Lastly, I voted for Jerk (again, because why not?), and I'm tired now, so I'm going to sleep on this and provide a new rainbow list and related thoughts on folks tomorrow before Night 2 ends.
Sure. I'll address the third point first about active discussers. At that point it was mostly yourself, JJJ, Drumbeats, and Elo leading the discussion for the day. I did feel good because (again, I mentioned it before, I didn't like DB's strategy but I wasn't inclined to read him as bad) all of those people, yourself included, felt like they were trying to encourage positive, strategy-oriented discussion. But it is also Day 1. When I say I'm feeling good about someone, I'm leaning like 10% civ at most. To say I'm more confident of alignment on day 1 is absolutely ludicrous and unfounded.
To address the other points: I was the only one that cast significant shade on sig before he was nightkilled. You were the only person that rebutted my accusation of him. Sig then proceeds to get nightkilled. It felt like it would have been a good opportunity to set the ball rolling against me. People were voting for Elohcin and I felt slightly more sure about her being good than bad. I was wrong, but I still stand by that statement in hindsight. She was good at acting like a civilian in my eyes. So I voted for you because I did not have any stronger suspicions on anyone playing the game, and if I were in your position and I were bad, I would have used my misjudgment of sig to try and set up a wagon against me. If I were a baddy playing against myself in this game, your position would be the most likely to try and set up such a nightkill after voicing your opinion on me. Is it somehow illegal for someone to change reads?
I also was not entirely convinced you were silenced. I thought it possible some people could be faking it, like yourself, to try and not arouse suspicion. In fact, after Matt was nightkilled last night (the person I suspected first), I thought it even more likely that you would have been faking it by setting up two of my suspicions as nightkills and attempting to frame me. In fact it really does feel like someone now is trying to frame my position.
I was all set to come back and accuse you again until I saw this role revealed on the front page:
Royce Bracket
Flood ( )-
Sometimes…people can be…contagious. People can be contagious. Whoever targets your target the same Night will be silenced and unable to vote while they recover.
So with that revelation in mind I'm suddenly feeling like I cannot hold that suspicion on you anymore. Given that (if memory serves me correctly, I'll have to go back and reread the votes) you were on one of the vote trains the first day, it's entirely possible you were legitimately silenced. So I am forced to recind my analysis of your position in light of this evidence. I daresay I think slightly better of you now, even.
I'm frustrated, so I'm going to stop speculating and look at the facts in light of the new role. If we believe you were silenced, which I think I now can believe with less doubt, someone else who voted for Elo on Day 1 is a baddie and was bussing, probably the baddie here in question, unless there's another silencing role in that crowd.
I do see nijuukyugou on that list. I will go back to check and see their posts as well as who else may have been possibly silenced/missed a vote the previous day.
So someone forced these three into the spotlight