Mountain Mafia [END]

[Sloonei]

I'll extend that question to everyone, about everyone. I think this could be a useful exercise: in a brief answer, what reason do you have to read each player remaining in this game as town?

[Kylemii]

I'll extend that question to everyone, about everyone. I think this could be a useful exercise: in a brief answer, what reason do you have to read each player remaining in this game as town?

i would like to do this, i'll try to do it tomorrow after my blood meeting

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Going from Bob's posts: he votes Sig on Day 2 right out of the bat, which implies hehasa bad result on Sig. But weirdly, he stops talking much about it afterwards. Later he goesstrong against Jack on Day 3, which suggests a result (the wrong one). He also attacks Kyle, but it's less than Jack, so it's unlikely to be a result imo.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Let's start with Quin.

[Elohcin]

and welcome @nijuukyugou, thanks for stepping in. Do not worry about trying to read all of this nonsense. This is already the biggest speed game in syndicate history. It'll be pointless and counterproductive to attempt a catch up. Just hop right in and start telling us who seems honest or dishonest.

I don't know if this is the best advice. Seems kind of idd for you to tell her not to worry about reading any previous content. I mean, I don't expect her to read ALL the pages, but still.

[Elohcin]

RIP epi and welcome niju

Ugh I'm not feeling super confident about anything and would go along with whatever tbh. I'd vote for Sig, I'd vote for Quin, I'd maybe vote for Kyle, heck I'd even vote for Sloonei. LC and DDL I'm less inclined to suspect but I could be wrong.

I'm having a hard time trusting anyone at this point and that's sad this late in the game.

Let's talk about why we think mafia would kill epi. Do you think we can glean any info from that?

[Dragon D. Luffy]

RIP epi and welcome niju

Ugh I'm not feeling super confident about anything and would go along with whatever tbh. I'd vote for Sig, I'd vote for Quin, I'd maybe vote for Kyle, heck I'd even vote for Sloonei. LC and DDL I'm less inclined to suspect but I could be wrong.

I'm having a hard time trusting anyone at this point and that's sad this late in the game.

Let's talk about why we think mafia would kill epi. Do you think we can glean any info from that?

He was one of the most civ looking players in the game.

[Elohcin]

I'll extend that question to everyone, about everyone. I think this could be a useful exercise: in a brief answer, what reason do you have to read each player remaining in this game as town?

I think if I were to propose an idea like this I would be jumped on and lynched. However, with the way things are going, maybe ruling out those we trust will help us lynch scum. I just don't know. Gut tells me this approach is coming FROM scum to distract us from looking at clues in posts from those who have died recently.

[Elohcin]

RIP epi and welcome niju

Ugh I'm not feeling super confident about anything and would go along with whatever tbh. I'd vote for Sig, I'd vote for Quin, I'd maybe vote for Kyle, heck I'd even vote for Sloonei. LC and DDL I'm less inclined to suspect but I could be wrong.

I'm having a hard time trusting anyone at this point and that's sad this late in the game.

Let's talk about why we think mafia would kill epi. Do you think we can glean any info from that?

He was one of the most civ looking players in the game.

Inmost definitely agree with this. Is there nothing more?

[Long Con]

Yeah, he wasn't getting lynched anytime soon. Number one reason for the Mafia to kill anyone, in any game. I don't know if there's anything more... he came hard after Quin in the last lynch, and pulled a seriously goofy move and switched to bob for no reason.

[Elohcin]

coffee consumed. Time to get to work. Getting a really late start on my day.

[Long Con]

Who could be Civ? This is going to suck because it's off the top of my head. Let's call this a "get the ball rolling" list.

Dragon D. Luffy feels Civ but no proof
DrWilgy light touch this game, can't think of a solid reason he's Civ.
dunya (replaced sprityo) very engaged, seems like she's genuinely trying to solve. Though Jack said she's fake.
Elohcin not the greatest feelings about her. She's been totally willing to lynch me all game, that low-hanging fruit thing doesn't sit well.
nijuukyugou (replaced insertnamehere) (replaced Glorfindel) total zero, no Civ points.
Kylemii I dunno
Long Con is Civ.
nutella Civ read based on lynch 1. Has she been riding that?
Quin has cases against him; Epi seemed to want him gone.
sig I'd vote him again
Sloonei had some sort of Civ cred based on Day 2, but is it legit now that Jack is proven Civ?
speedchuck no specifically Civ thoughts

So yeah, that was crap. This will take some research at some point.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Mafia needs to eliminate all the players they cannot lynch. Or when the game approaches theend, the mafiosos will be lynched instead.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Bob has going against Sig since the start of Day 2. There is a goodchance he was investigated.I can see myself voting Sig too.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

But the problem is that he hasn't exactly tunneled on Sig, which is what I'd expect a cop with results to do.

He hasn't tunneled on anybody, to be fair.

[speedchuck]

There is not a single person in this game that I can trust is town.

Epi was the only one, and he's gone.

[speedchuck]

Shortlist of Cbob's early day reads, lynch reactions, and stuff. This is not comprehensive at all, but these are the places I'd hide my checks.

Sorry, what with family time I don't really have the ability to go through and make good cases or long posts. Butt I'm following as best I can.

Reads (mostly gut):

Daisy
Speedchuck
Epi
Sloonei
Quin
JJJ
nutella
DDL
Eloh
Kyle
Mesk
Long Con
Jack
Sig

No reads on Dom, Wilgy, INH, sprit

Start of D2. Sig is cBob's scummiest read. Like, literally the worst. He immediately votes for Sig. (Keep in mind, he can't possibly know if his check is a truth or lie at this point. But 50-50 shot is pretty decent.)

As of now I'm probably voting into jack/LC/speedchuck. But I've been relatively unplugged for a few days so I want to go back and do some rereading.

Beginning of D3. If cBob has used both of his checks at this point, and gotten a possible scumread, he may be disguising it in here.

Cbob's D3 GTH:
JOHEART - bad
NUTELLA - good
DRWILGY - good
SY/DNYA - bad
SIG ----- bad
EPINOSS - good
SLOONEI - good
DDLUFFY - good
COL.BOB - supatown
MP7/JJJ - good
LONGCON - good
MESK514 - bad
INH/BLP - uuuuuuh good
SPDAISY - good
DOM ----- bad
ELOHCIN - good
KYLEMII - good
SPCHUCK - bad
QUIN ---- good

I'm inclined to believe that, by D4, cBob would have used his two checks. If nothing else, because he was facing lynch pressure from Sloonei.

D4 starts with

I don't think J is bad with Dunya or Quin.

Bad Jimmy and bad Quin don't team up to save bad Dom. That's really dangerous for little return, given Dom has been inactive.

I still think Wuin is good.

Disagree. The first death being a mafia death is very bad thing for mafia. Bad Quin has cover from pushing after lasagne from the beginning, plus it's easier to justify votes swapping around in a CFD type EOD. I mean heck Sloonei voted with JJJ and I'm almost positive they're not w/w. I think JJJ/Quin/Dom w/w/w is still very much on the table.

(Plus little return isn't necessarily true. He could be Sutter Buttes, or Gwendol Wreakin's kill might be special in some way. And if his teammates can submit an action for him, doubly so.)

Kylemii

I didn't like his push on Jack, I don't feel like he's solving, and I don't want to tunnel in on JJJ this early in the phase.

Thoughts after the JJJ lynch:

Thoughts before I'm out the rest of the day:
I'm almost positive one of the people who voted JJJ after me is mafia. Tinfoiling Jack real hard right now for this push on Sloonei.

Lean town on dunya. I think teammate JJJ is smart enough to not be the only vote on somebody with her.

One of Eloh/mal/LC is also likely mafia. Don't need to elaborate on the first two, Jack/LC feel slightly w/w but the D1 agreement is over the top if so.

Also feel pretty good about everybody on JJJ before me, although speed gets the least bump up because self-preservation. Still he's not atop my suspect list any longer.

You know what I'm doing with JJJ's ISOs? Totally ignoring them. Way too WIFOMy for me to get any real info.

Cbob votes for Kylemii on D5.

[speedchuck]

I think this makes Kylemii and Sig look worse.

On the other hand, the lack of conviction leads me to believe that cbob ended up with town checks and figured out that he ended up with town checks.

[speedchuck]

Please offer your thoughts. Use my shortlist if you're too lazy to ISO cbob.

[Long Con]

"I mean heck Sloonei voted with JJJ and I'm almost positive they're not w/w"

Sloonei confirmed town. Bob either got a good check on both, or a bad check on both.

[speedchuck]

"I mean heck Sloonei voted with JJJ and I'm almost positive they're not w/w"

Sloonei confirmed town. Bob either got a good check on both, or a bad check on both.

. . . Probably so. Yeah. Good catch.

[DrWilgy]

Thanks for this Speedchuck.

Something that caught my eye was the "INH/BLP - uuuuuuh good." To your knowledge, did Cbob ever attempt or push an INH lynch?
"Mount Elbrus - Twice in the game, Elbrus may peek at another player’s alignment, though he will only learn the truth on one of these occasions."

It is possible that Elbrus checked INH but responded with "uuuuuuh" because he didn't know if he could trust his double edged sword result.

Linki - Interesting, I can toss that theory a bone. How was Cbob's interactions with Sloonei before and after the JJJ lynch?

[speedchuck]

Thanks for this Speedchuck.

Something that caught my eye was the "INH/BLP - uuuuuuh good." To your knowledge, did Cbob ever attempt or push an INH lynch?
"Mount Elbrus - Twice in the game, Elbrus may peek at another player’s alignment, though he will only learn the truth on one of these occasions."

It is possible that Elbrus checked INH but responded with "uuuuuuh" because he didn't know if he could trust his double edged sword result.

Linki - Interesting, I can toss that theory a bone. How was Cbob's interactions with Sloonei before and after the JJJ lynch?

I think the uuuhhhh is due to no posts.

For the sloonei theory:
#1: Sloonei's actual votes looked bad leading up to the JJJ lynch.
#2: Sloonei was after cBob, and cBob probably would want to know whether he should send suspicion in return.
#3: cBob has a good check after JJJ gets lynched, and after that night, I don't think he EVER suspected sloonei for anything. Still verifying, but I think this is it.

[speedchuck]

I'm assuming that the "learn truth on one of these occasions" means he is fed a lie on the other occasion? [mention]Marmot[/mention]
Also how would the 3P show up for cBob's check?

[speedchuck]

If I were in cBob's position, I would have checked Sloonei too.

[DrWilgy]

It's true that it could be due to no posts, but this is contrast to his earlier "No reads on Dom, Wilgy, INH, sprit."

Did anything really warrant a change there? Out of us four why did only INH get the "uhhhhhh?" (I promise I'm not jealous or anything... It's not like I wanted Cbob's uhhhhh.)

Re Sloonei, I can ship it and it makes rational sense, but Sloonei is the person I have felt the worst about since JoH died. Guess I gotta take another step back.

[speedchuck]

Sloonei tinfoil is definitely interesting (especially considering his Mesk vote switch that saved jay), but I thought that pretty much all of the theories as to how he survived Day 2 involved him being town. Unless... wait, there is one possibility. Hold on, I'm rethinking everything I had in mind for Jack and Sloonei and recalculating.... hmm I'll have to think about this more, it's really confusing. Bottom line is I think the chances of Sloonei being bad are very, very, very slim.

Yeah Sloonei tinfoiling is understandable (I don't get why he refuses to consider Mal at all either, Jack), but it's a waste of time. I'm firm town on him.

[speedchuck]

It's true that it could be due to no posts, but this is contrast to his earlier "No reads on Dom, Wilgy, INH, sprit."

Did anything really warrant a change there? Out of us four why did only INH get the "uhhhhhh?" (I promise I'm not jealous or anything... It's not like I wanted Cbob's uhhhhh.)

I mean, INH is the only one with ZERO posts. None whatsoever. GTH forces you to look and make a gut read. There was nothing on INH to influence his read at all, especially before any flips.

It's a fair theory, but I buy the sloonei one.

[Marmot]

I'm assuming that the "learn truth on one of these occasions" means he is fed a lie on the other occasion? @Marmot
Also how would the 3P show up for cBob's check?

That's an accurate assumption. One of his checks will be true, one will be false.

What is a 3P?

[speedchuck]

I'm assuming that the "learn truth on one of these occasions" means he is fed a lie on the other occasion? Marmot
Also how would the 3P show up for cBob's check?

That's an accurate assumption. One of his checks will be true, one will be false.

What is a 3P?

Third party. Mars hill.

[speedchuck]

speedchuck
Sloonei
dunya
nutella
Elohcin
Long Con
Dragon D. Luffy
nijuukyugou
Quin
sig
Kylemii
DrWilgy

Here's this. I'm over my tinfoil on Sloonei and Dunya I think. Anyone else is fair game. Order within tier probably isn't that important.

[Sloonei]

and welcome nijuukyugou, thanks for stepping in. Do not worry about trying to read all of this nonsense. This is already the biggest speed game in syndicate history. It'll be pointless and counterproductive to attempt a catch up. Just hop right in and start telling us who seems honest or dishonest.

I don't know if this is the best advice. Seems kind of idd for you to tell her not to worry about reading any previous content. I mean, I don't expect her to read ALL the pages, but still.

she has to read some of the content. But I think it'd be a waste of time to try to read most or all of it at this point.

[Sloonei]

I'll extend that question to everyone, about everyone. I think this could be a useful exercise: in a brief answer, what reason do you have to read each player remaining in this game as town?

I think if I were to propose an idea like this I would be jumped on and lynched. However, with the way things are going, maybe ruling out those we trust will help us lynch scum. I just don't know. Gut tells me this approach is coming FROM scum to distract us from looking at clues in posts from those who have died recently.

I assure you I have a good reason for asking this question.

[Sloonei]

I do not put up 600+ posts and drown the thread in my obsessive cases when I'm scum. I am simply incapable of doing that.

[nijuukyugou]

Y'all are insane. Absolutely insane.

[Sloonei]

Thanks for this Speedchuck.

Something that caught my eye was the "INH/BLP - uuuuuuh good." To your knowledge, did Cbob ever attempt or push an INH lynch?
"Mount Elbrus - Twice in the game, Elbrus may peek at another player’s alignment, though he will only learn the truth on one of these occasions."

It is possible that Elbrus checked INH but responded with "uuuuuuh" because he didn't know if he could trust his double edged sword result.

Linki - Interesting, I can toss that theory a bone. How was Cbob's interactions with Sloonei before and after the JJJ lynch?

He suspected me for a brief moment on Day 2, enough to cast a vote. After this is I turned on him and never dropped him as a suspect because I'm dumb. He registered me as a town read before the end of Night 2.

[Sloonei]

Y'all are insane. Absolutely insane.

I know. I apologize.

[speedchuck]

Cbob did read Sloonei as mechanically near-confirmed town before N2 was over. Hm.

[speedchuck]

I'm voting Wilgy for now.

I have no idea what cbob saw. Would welcome more theories. I'm beginning to assume it was two townies and that cbob just didn't really focus on it.

[Sloonei]

I'm voting Wilgy for now.

I have no idea what cbob saw. Would welcome more theories. I'm beginning to assume it was two townies and that cbob just didn't really focus on it.

This is my assumption. A role like that is more likely to be borderline useless than useful. Not knowing which of the two reads you receive is true means not trusting either one, so no real information can be gained.

[dunya]

hmmm my dr wilgy theory is out.

[dunya]

I'm still not recovered so I'm not doing to be much help building cases today. I'll make a new rainbow. I think I feel best about a Kyle lynch at this point.

[Kylemii]

I'm still not recovered so I'm not doing to be much help building cases today. I'll make a new rainbow. I think I feel best about a Kyle lynch at this point.

but why though

[dunya]

I'm voting Wilgy for now.

I have no idea what cbob saw. Would welcome more theories. I'm beginning to assume it was two townies and that cbob just didn't really focus on it.

This is my assumption. A role like that is more likely to be borderline useless than useful. Not knowing which of the two reads you receive is true means not trusting either one, so no real information can be gained.

until one of the two flips but there's also a chance one of his targets was night killed which would basically render his power useless.

[Sloonei]

I'd still like it if as many of us as are able could list reasons to read everybody as town. I have a reason for asking this, and the more people who do it, the more potentially useful the exercise is.

[dunya]

I'm still not recovered so I'm not doing to be much help building cases today. I'll make a new rainbow. I think I feel best about a Kyle lynch at this point.

but why though

I can't make a huge case, but I did close on you after my early suspicions because of empathetic reasons, but because you come in most people's bottom of the list -lists. There's a bad aura. I mean, I've thrown shit everywhere, and yet I'm at the top of people's lists. So there's something missing from you. Why do you think everyone can't place a read on you?

[dunya]

Like, I want to tell people to do something specific, but it wouldn't be in the best interest of this other player. I seem to have an ethical dilemma here.

[dunya]

RIP epi and welcome niju

Ugh I'm not feeling super confident about anything and would go along with whatever tbh. I'd vote for Sig, I'd vote for Quin, I'd maybe vote for Kyle, heck I'd even vote for Sloonei. LC and DDL I'm less inclined to suspect but I could be wrong.

I'm having a hard time trusting anyone at this point and that's sad this late in the game.

Let's talk about why we think mafia would kill epi. Do you think we can glean any info from that?

He was one of the most civ looking players in the game.

If that was the reason, they'd have targeted nutella or sloonei imo.

[Kylemii]

Blah. I'm waffling again. Epi is convincing and he's had pretty good instincts so far. But unfortunately I'm going to bed so I've got to make up my mind.

quin

Final answer.

@dunya I'd look into quin, DDL, and Wilgy (who's oddly gotten a total pass the last couple of days)

Near the end of the day dunya asked cbob if he flipped civ what players he'd look at. He listed these three. If he received a sketchy result he'd probably list them in that post.

Also I don't agree with the idea that cbobs 2 shot cop check is useless just because one check only tells lies and the other only tells truths. It's different than usual sure but either way he learns something about both players, and if one of his checks dies or is otherwise confirmed, his other check becomes absolute.

2 civ reads means one of his checks is mafia
1 mafia and 1 civ read means either both checks are mafia or both checks are civ(mathematically the ladder is more possible, unless cbob is a cop god)
2 mafia reads, a 50-50 shot just like 2 civ reads

No matter which of those happened it would have altered the course of his actions.

[Sloonei]

Reasons I can read everyone as town:

Dragon D. Luffy - I have "mind-melded" with DDL on a couple of occasions, and he made one defensive post early on which read as highly emotional and passionate, the kind of thing I don't see being faked.
DrWilgy - Jay went after him hard.
dunya - Believable-as-heck tone, has put as much work as anyone into the thread despite numerous RL reasons not to.
Elohcin - She was Jay's top lynch priority on Day 3 when prompted to name any suspect at all. This would have to be a very aggressive bussing strategy for them to be teammates. This is also among the most involved games I've seen Elohcin play.
nijuukyugou - Finally a post from this player slot! Insertglorfblooper is town because there's no way two players fail to pick up a scum role card, right?
Kylemii - Believable tone. Has put a high volume of content into the thread without ever appearing seriously uncomfortable.
Long Con - He's a fearless scumster, but appears less involved than usual this game.
nutella - Possibly Everest. Helped kickstart the Jay bandwagon on Day 3.
Quin - I believe his tone, he aggressively defended Jay, and Jay may have been making a concerted effort to pocket Quin.
sig - Jay tried to lynch him.
Sloonei - Role card says so.
speedchuck - Similar to Long Con, though I have at times also felt like Speedchuck has presented some sincere thoughts and doubts in the thread.