Pikachu Tribe - Day 9

[S~V~S]

nijuukyugou is not normally someone who draws a Night 1 Night kill.

And........

And that is something one who cares about finding mafia should consider.

we have no idea
what she might have said or her
suspicions yonder

[DharmaHelper]

Not true. Epignosis can read both tribes' threads.

[Epignosis]

nijuukyugou is not normally someone who draws a Night 1 Night kill.

And........

And that is something one who cares about finding mafia should consider.

Expound upon this. Why should I care whether Bloops is a Night 1 target or not? Who would target her N1, in your estimation? Mr. "Don't just say stuff"

nijuukyugou has never been, in my experience, killed Night 1. She also does not get lynched early, and she likes poetry, so I assume she would have sent in a poem. That means, if we accept the other tribe had the same haiku lynch protections in play, she would not have been in danger of being lynched. That means her BTSC partner would have been under no pressure to tip his or her hand (the rules notwithstanding). In addition, in my experience, nijuukyugou does not typically have a good reason to vote one person or the other Day 1.

Therefore nijuukyugou was a kill that happened because whatever discussion happened in the other tribe was comfortable enough discussion for the mafia faction. It was a clean kill that wouldn't lead to anybody, and one that was unlikely to draw the attention of any protective roles.

Given the above, I am looking for go-along-get-along people here.

[Epignosis]

Or we could lynch DH, since he seemed more concerned about "keeping our numbers up in case there's a tribal competition or something."

[DharmaHelper]

Or we could lynch DH, since he seemed more concerned about "keeping our numbers up in case there's a tribal competition or something."

When did I say that?

[S~V~S]

nijuukyugou is not normally someone who draws a Night 1 Night kill.

And........

And that is something one who cares about finding mafia should consider.

Expound upon this. Why should I care whether Bloops is a Night 1 target or not? Who would target her N1, in your estimation? Mr. "Don't just say stuff"

nijuukyugou has never been, in my experience, killed Night 1. She also does not get lynched early, and she likes poetry, so I assume she would have sent in a poem. That means, if we accept the other tribe had the same haiku lynch protections in play, she would not have been in danger of being lynched. That means her BTSC partner would have been under no pressure to tip his or her hand (the rules notwithstanding). In addition, in my experience, nijuukyugou does not typically have a good reason to vote one person or the other Day 1.

Therefore nijuukyugou was a kill that happened because whatever discussion happened in the other tribe was comfortable enough discussion for the mafia faction. It was a clean kill that wouldn't lead to anybody, and one that was unlikely to draw the attention of any protective roles.

Given the above, I am looking for go-along-get-along people here.

Extrapolation
and more extrapolation
quite a jump there

[sprityo]

From Cecil:

Good Morning Syndicate. Everyone's favorite voice on the radio here to congratulate you on a successful Day One. I have high hopes to continue bringing you broadcasts to our little tribe in the coming days. That is, figuring I myself am alive by the end of tonight. Lots of content coming out of a small cluster of people, some of you slackers better pick it up. This is the game of all games afterall. Im looking to you Dom, DragonDLuffy, Quin, ColonialBob, nutella, and sprityo. A few of you more so. It is in my opinion that with Twenty Three players, and us owning eleven. We should have about two mafia members among us. As the new Day comes upon us, let us remember to not becoming paranoid and hunt the players that are helping us. This is Cecil signing off for the night.

I'm not assuming Cecil is Civvie. It's a pretty good baddie role to have, if you can convince the public you're Civ through it. And come on... PLAYER SALAD, right?

Player salad?

What benefits would a baddie gain from being Cecil? And does the GOC frequently toss in roles in different alignments regardless of their origin alignment?

[Epignosis]

nijuukyugou is not normally someone who draws a Night 1 Night kill.

And........

And that is something one who cares about finding mafia should consider.

Expound upon this. Why should I care whether Bloops is a Night 1 target or not? Who would target her N1, in your estimation? Mr. "Don't just say stuff"

nijuukyugou has never been, in my experience, killed Night 1. She also does not get lynched early, and she likes poetry, so I assume she would have sent in a poem. That means, if we accept the other tribe had the same haiku lynch protections in play, she would not have been in danger of being lynched. That means her BTSC partner would have been under no pressure to tip his or her hand (the rules notwithstanding). In addition, in my experience, nijuukyugou does not typically have a good reason to vote one person or the other Day 1.

Therefore nijuukyugou was a kill that happened because whatever discussion happened in the other tribe was comfortable enough discussion for the mafia faction. It was a clean kill that wouldn't lead to anybody, and one that was unlikely to draw the attention of any protective roles.

Given the above, I am looking for go-along-get-along people here.

Extrapolation
and more extrapolation
quite a jump there

You're going to have to get used to extrapolation. I have no other tools to worth with when considering the Night kill target given that I don't know what went on there. But I do know what nijuukyugou does 90% of the time on Days 1, and I know her in real life, and I introduced her to this site, so if I'm going to be comfortable making extrapolations, it will be now.

This was a kill meant to maintain the status-quo in their tribe. Book it.

[Epignosis]

Things have changed so much, I don't even fucking proofread anymore.

[sprityo]

Epi what benefit do we get from your thinking process of the N1 Kill?

Linki: status quo?

[sprityo]

Do you guys think if I voted Dom he’d be more likely to appear?

[Epignosis]

Epi what benefit do we get from your thinking process of the N1 Kill?

Linki: status quo?

What benefit do YOU think we get from my thinking process? This is not a one-man show. Civilians should bounce ideas off mine rather than dismiss them as "extrapolation and more extrapolation" (of course it's extrapolation- nothing is ever certain).

I need other people to weigh in on what I offered, not dismiss it as DH and S~V~S seem content to do.

[Epignosis]

By "status quo," I mean that mafia were satisfied with the existing state of affairs in the other tribe, such that they did not feel the need to take down a loudmouth civilian who was raising hell and pointing fingers.

[sprityo]

In restrospect, probably not. Albeit in my past recollections Dom is a force I don’t like to reckon with when he is present. But he is the lowest of contributions right now.

I feel like I needed to do something for the thread too and I’ve forgotten what it was

Linki: I won’t dismiss you, have no fear.

[S~V~S]

Epi what benefit do we get from your thinking process of the N1 Kill?

Linki: status quo?

What benefit do YOU think we get from my thinking process? This is not a one-man show. Civilians should bounce ideas off mine rather than dismiss them as "extrapolation and more extrapolation" (of course it's extrapolation- nothing is ever certain).

I need other people to weigh in on what I offered, not dismiss it as DH and S~V~S seem content to do.

But you speak as if
extrapolation were fact.
not variable

Some killers like to
kill randomly, reasonless
harder to trace it

it is possible,
what you say about Niju
not enough info

[sprityo]

So you’re saying that the mafia felt confident about their presence enough that they could kill a random person and then lead another day of misguiding their tribe?

Linki: SVS May have a point, but I don’t feel it’s as likely.

Epi would you say the mafia kill is akin to killing a no show or low poster early on? I mean it wouldn’t be exact since I’d assume people would be trying their best for the GOC

[Epignosis]

Epi what benefit do we get from your thinking process of the N1 Kill?

Linki: status quo?

What benefit do YOU think we get from my thinking process? This is not a one-man show. Civilians should bounce ideas off mine rather than dismiss them as "extrapolation and more extrapolation" (of course it's extrapolation- nothing is ever certain).

I need other people to weigh in on what I offered, not dismiss it as DH and S~V~S seem content to do.

But you speak as if
extrapolation were fact.
not variable

Some killers like to
kill randomly, reasonless
harder to trace it

it is possible,
what you say about Niju
not enough info

I am not going to hedge my comments with empty phases like "I think" or "In my opinion" or "It is my solemn belief that..."

That's bad writing. When I write something, it should be understood that this is my opinion. My commentary on nijuukyugou was based on plenty of experience, but it should be clear that the conclusion I drew from that was my perspective. You are welcome to disagree with my perspective, which would be a healthier and more useful avenue of discourse than calling my commentary exactly what it is.

We don't have the luxury of info. It's Day 2. People have to talk about something.

[Epignosis]

So you’re saying that the mafia felt confident about their presence enough that they could kill a random person and then lead another day of misguiding their tribe?

That's my takeaway from the nijuukyugou kill. Again, I am speculating on what happened yesterday in their tribe, and knowing what I know about nijuukyugou, the fact that she likes poetry, the fact that she had BTSC, and so on, I think I'm correct.

Epi would you say the mafia kill is akin to killing a no show or low poster early on? I mean it wouldn’t be exact since I’d assume people would be trying their best for the GOC

That's a tougher question. nijuukyugou can be quiet in a game. Either way, killing nijuukyugou as a low-poster doesn't change my perspective- on the contrary, it would only support it, that mafia were comfortable over there yesterday.

[DharmaHelper]

Epi what benefit do we get from your thinking process of the N1 Kill?

Linki: status quo?

What benefit do YOU think we get from my thinking process? This is not a one-man show. Civilians should bounce ideas off mine rather than dismiss them as "extrapolation and more extrapolation" (of course it's extrapolation- nothing is ever certain).

I need other people to weigh in on what I offered, not dismiss it as DH and S~V~S seem content to do.

I'm not dismissing you, I'm just wondering what the point is/was.

[sprityo]

Epi what benefit do we get from your thinking process of the N1 Kill?

Linki: status quo?

What benefit do YOU think we get from my thinking process? This is not a one-man show. Civilians should bounce ideas off mine rather than dismiss them as "extrapolation and more extrapolation" (of course it's extrapolation- nothing is ever certain).

I need other people to weigh in on what I offered, not dismiss it as DH and S~V~S seem content to do.

I'm not dismissing you, I'm just wondering what the point is/was.

Content generation/topics of discussion?

[S~V~S]

There may be a role
redirector, or maybe
a target switcher

We don't have the luxury of info. It's Day 2. People have to talk about something.

I agree, we do
need to talk about something
what topics are there?

Colonial Bob,
Dragon D Luffy, Dharma
Helper, also Dom

Epignosis, l'il
Nutella, quin, and Long Con
Speedchuck and Sprityo

And me, SVS
Those are quite a few topics
About which we know

[Long Con]

S~V~S, do you think Epignosis is avoiding talking about these Pikachu topics?

[Epignosis]

Epi what benefit do we get from your thinking process of the N1 Kill?

Linki: status quo?

What benefit do YOU think we get from my thinking process? This is not a one-man show. Civilians should bounce ideas off mine rather than dismiss them as "extrapolation and more extrapolation" (of course it's extrapolation- nothing is ever certain).

I need other people to weigh in on what I offered, not dismiss it as DH and S~V~S seem content to do.

I'm not dismissing you, I'm just wondering what the point is/was.

If we assume we have mafia over here (and I can only hope that we do, or we are playing with ourselves), and we agree they have BTSC and can discuss the kill selection, then discussion of the kill selection has merit.

Find reasons to clear people, and then don't lynch those people.

People will roll their eyes and scoff at this, for example, but I would never kill nijuukyugou Night 1. Not only would I not like to do it on the basis that we are friends, I also don't see it as good strategy, since nijuukyugou likes to sit back early on and observe, and I thus would not advise my team to kill her Night 1. If you buy that, and I'm cool if you don't, then you have less reason to suspect me, which should give you more reason to suspect other people.

[Epignosis]

There may be a role
redirector, or maybe
a target switcher

We don't have the luxury of info. It's Day 2. People have to talk about something.

I agree, we do
need to talk about something
what topics are there?

Colonial Bob,
Dragon D Luffy, Dharma
Helper, also Dom

Epignosis, l'il
Nutella, quin, and Long Con
Speedchuck and Sprityo

And me, SVS
Those are quite a few topics
About which we know

Player salad.

Spoiler: show

[Epignosis]

No messing around. Assume I'm right. You don't have to agree with me:

Who would be a go-along-get-along mafia member who would have no reason to object to a nijuukyugou kill given our particular thread climate?

[S~V~S]

You wanted to spend
most of yesterday talking
about mechanics

then scrambling
to vote at the last minute
for weakish reasons

Now today you want
to talk about the other
thread, and speculate

When we probably
have baddies right here in the
tribe of Pikachu

Can we guess who the
bad here are based on Nijus
unfortunate death?

sorry this sounds so
hostile, haiku is rather
staccato in feel

Linki ha ha ha
Thats an alphabetical
player list ha ha ha

of the members of
Pikachu tribe, i made a
List of the topics

available to
us without speculation
Hope you were joking

[Long Con]

Maybe the mafia is spread across tribes and the only nightkill was over there?

But no, they had a lynch as well.

I am thinking there was a failed nightkill on Pikaside.

Were you going anywhere with the "failed nightkill" theory?

And if the other side had a lynch as well, wouldn't we find out who was lynched, like we found out about the nijuu nightkill? I think that kind of works against the idea that this was a slip.

[Epignosis]

You wanted to spend
most of yesterday talking
about mechanics

then scrambling
to vote at the last minute
for weakish reasons

Now today you want
to talk about the other
thread, and speculate

When we probably
have baddies right here in the
tribe of Pikachu

Can we guess who the
bad here are based on Nijus
unfortunate death?

sorry this sounds so
hostile, haiku is rather
staccato in feel

Linki ha ha ha
Thats an alphabetical
player list ha ha ha

of the members of
Pikachu tribe, i made a
List of the topics

available to
us without speculation
Hope you were joking

The "player salad" thing is a joke, yes.

If you want to talk about something, I am not preventing you from doing so. I am talking about what I want to talk about. If someone wants to talk about something else, by all means.

[Epignosis]

It astounds me how much resistance I'm getting over, yes, speculation and extrapolation, which is part of what makes Mafia Mafia. Of course I know I may be off-base. I don't care. I ultimately have to vote somebody here don't I? So I'll eventually get to talking about other people once the points I've raised have run their course.

[S~V~S]

S~V~S, do you think Epignosis is avoiding talking about these Pikachu topics?

Possibly, you know
I do not love thread steering
and this feels like it

I copied player
list and now he makes suspish
face gimme a break

Killers could have made
a random kill, there could be
a target switcher

Maybe this was the
one time she did make a splash
on day one, who knows?

in any case I
do have a haiku headache
So for realz bedtime

[Epignosis]

I didn't make a suspicious face...look in the spoiler!

And you're damn right I'm going to be steering the thread. Somebody has to.

[Epignosis]

I saw DharmaHelper with the Devil.

[DharmaHelper]

It astounds me how much resistance I'm getting over, yes, speculation and extrapolation, which is part of what makes Mafia Mafia. Of course I know I may be off-base. I don't care. I ultimately have to vote somebody here don't I? So I'll eventually get to talking about other people once the points I've raised have run their course.

[sprityo]

Perhaps its an off on situation where since we're separated into tribes, the mafia can only kill on certain nights

So we have the even night deaths? I mean we wont be able to learn if that theory is true until another night has passed

linki: i dont like thread steering when it's overwhelming. Lets try a better word like, thread-guiding. where we dont follow like sheople around JJJ the person most prominent in thread

Spoiler: show

im just messing with you jay

[Long Con]

Epi what benefit do we get from your thinking process of the N1 Kill?

Linki: status quo?

What benefit do YOU think we get from my thinking process? This is not a one-man show. Civilians should bounce ideas off mine rather than dismiss them as "extrapolation and more extrapolation" (of course it's extrapolation- nothing is ever certain).

I need other people to weigh in on what I offered, not dismiss it as DH and S~V~S seem content to do.

I'm not dismissing you, I'm just wondering what the point is/was.

If we assume we have mafia over here (and I can only hope that we do, or we are playing with ourselves), and we agree they have BTSC and can discuss the kill selection, then discussion of the kill selection has merit.

Find reasons to clear people, and then don't lynch those people.

People will roll their eyes and scoff at this, for example, but I would never kill nijuukyugou Night 1. Not only would I not like to do it on the basis that we are friends, I also don't see it as good strategy, since nijuukyugou likes to sit back early on and observe, and I thus would not advise my team to kill her Night 1. If you buy that, and I'm cool if you don't, then you have less reason to suspect me, which should give you more reason to suspect other people.

Three most vital players to kill on Night 1 when you are Mafia?

[Epignosis]

People would rather mock and dismiss rather than discuss. Y'all have at it. I'm heading over to Fire Emblem.

[sprityo]

SVS, have you agreed with anyone so far? like really gelled with the way theyre playing or is everyone suspicious to you? maybe its just how you sound. (minus the haikus of course)

[nutella]

I’d assume people would be trying their best for the GOC

fwiw, I am definitely not doing this, lol. I'm feeling some mafia burnout and starting a new full-time job on wednesday and I'm just really not getting into the groove of this game or finding the motivation to put a ton of time and effort into it. I'm still really excited about it and want to play a successful game, but I'm not going to be making big iso cases or analyzing everything, just going to go with my gut and stuff.


re: epi's insights, I usually don't feel like I can read much into night kills, and that's especially the case here when the victim was in the other tribe and I don't know what went on over there, but his insight is still a contribution that I definitely wouldn't dismiss as useless, especially if it leads to particular thoughts on pikachu peeps

[DharmaHelper]

I will do my level best to post as in-depth as possible a breakdown of my thoughts on people tomorrow.

[DharmaHelper]

For now, a couple gut reads

colonialbob - CIv
Dragon D Luffy - Medium Bad
Dharmahelper - Medium Civ
dom - Civ
Epignosis - Medium Bad
Long Con - Medium Civ
nutella - Light Bad
Quin - Light Civ
speedchuck - Bad
sprityo - Light Civ
S~V~S - Civ

[sprityo]

For now, a couple gut reads

colonialbob - CIv
Dragon D Luffy - Medium Bad
Dharmahelper - Medium Civ
dom - Civ
Epignosis - Medium Bad
Long Con - Medium Civ
nutella - Light Bad
Quin - Light Civ
speedchuck - Bad
sprityo - Light Civ
S~V~S - Civ

can you explain your civ read on Dom for me? The man has all of 10 small posts or so

[DharmaHelper]

He seems like civ Dom to me, just on a gut level. None of his 10 posts or so have pinged my flawless radar.

[sprityo]

He seems like civ Dom to me, just on a gut level. None of his 10 posts or so have pinged my flawless radar.

fair enough. ill leave Dom aligned with you for now

[speedchuck]

Maybe the mafia is spread across tribes and the only nightkill was over there?

But no, they had a lynch as well.

I am thinking there was a failed nightkill on Pikaside.

Were you going anywhere with the "failed nightkill" theory?

And if the other side had a lynch as well, wouldn't we find out who was lynched, like we found out about the nijuu nightkill? I think that kind of works against the idea that this was a slip.

1. Not explicitly.

2. They were under Haiku law as well.

[speedchuck]

I haven't a read
on Dom, but you voted for
the lowest poster

Dom, who said that your
rainbow was bullshit, and now
you voted for him

No u much Chucky?
Why do you suspect him, Dom,
specifically?

I'm willing to vote for anyone in the four that I mentioned.

Dom is the one that I want to see more from at the moment.

Granted, Dom isn't the only one who dissed my beautiful rainbow. I forgot he did that. Are you sure that wasn't DH? Regardless.

If you've got a single reason for me not to vote Dom, please provide.

Voting Dom is not
my problem and I think that
you know this Speedchuck

My problems the vote
right off the bat for a guy
for a weak sauce reason

I am haikued out
I am going to vote now
Aubergine Speedchuck

[VOTE: speedchuck] aubergine

I think it is your problem. I think this is Buffy all over again. And I think you're town for it.

[speedchuck]

By "status quo," I mean that mafia were satisfied with the existing state of affairs in the other tribe, such that they did not feel the need to take down a loudmouth civilian who was raising hell and pointing fingers.

To be fair, it wouldn't get rid of the player.

[speedchuck]

Perhaps its an off on situation where since we're separated into tribes, the mafia can only kill on certain nights

Then town would have 2 lynches for each mafia kill. Presumably.

Look at where we are in the game. 2 lynches each day. 2 kills per night. 2 lives per player. I'm hardly making assumptions. This is basic, assuming that the people in the other thread have something to do. The lynches sure as heck aren't alternating, so the kills aren't either.

[Long Con]

Maybe the mafia is spread across tribes and the only nightkill was over there?

But no, they had a lynch as well.

I am thinking there was a failed nightkill on Pikaside.

Were you going anywhere with the "failed nightkill" theory?

And if the other side had a lynch as well, wouldn't we find out who was lynched, like we found out about the nijuu nightkill? I think that kind of works against the idea that this was a slip.

1. Not explicitly.

2. They were under Haiku law as well.

Oh yeah, Haiku law. Righty-ho.

[speedchuck]

Epi's nightkill analysis assumes that mafia teams have chat across the divide. I'm not willing to rely on it entirely, but I am willing to use it.

[mention]Epignosis[/mention] Who would you consider a go-along-to-get-along mafia player?

[Quin]

I guess I can eliminate the following options:

colonialbob -- immune I guess
Long Con -- off the poll
sprityo -- I am very confident he's town
S~V~S -- votes against her presumably won't count

And I think I most likely won't vote for Epi, I think he's civ though not quite as confident as I am on sprityo.

That leaves DDL, DH, Dom, Quin, and Speed.

DDL and DH are high contributors, I lean town on them but I think there have been a couple things that made me feel iffy about each of them, but unless something convincing comes up I'm much less likely to vote for either of them than any of the remaining three. Dom I never know what to think of, he could be anything. Quin... idk, kinda suspicious from yesterday but I'll have to reread. Speed, I'm really waffly on, there have been some really good points against him but I have found his points in defense pretty compelling.

So it's probably between Dom, Quin, and Speed.

hey I'm at work and not even reading haha but this is the first I'm hearing of this suspicion nutella what's going on haha