U-Pick Mafia Vol 1 - Game Over

[JaggedJimmyJay]

#6 is extremely pro-civilian. Vote it now!

What’s the reasoning?

Have to be fast

Civs best weapon is lynches

That’s two free lynches

Two bonus suspects flipped

A double lynch is pro town and a triple lynch is amazing

Not even close. If any other option wins them we’re clowns and civs deserve to lose

[colonialbob]

4 and 5 are anti town and I will consider people voting for them as such.

2 is a bad idea in a game this big.

1 is fine.

6 seems too easily hijacked by 2 mafia teams.

[ColinIsCool]

2 is a bad idea in a game this big.

Did you mean 3?

I’m gonna park myself at 1 for now but I’m going to keep mulling it over during the Night.

[Quin]

4 and 5 are anti town and I will consider people voting for them as such.

2 is a bad idea in a game this big.

1 is fine.

6 seems too easily hijacked by 2 mafia teams.

also colonialbob:

*votes 2*

[colonialbob]

2 is a bad idea in a game this big.

Did you mean 3?

I’m gonna park myself at 1 for now but I’m going to keep mulling it over during the Night.

4 and 5 are anti town and I will consider people voting for them as such.

2 is a bad idea in a game this big.

1 is fine.

6 seems too easily hijacked by 2 mafia teams.

also colonialbob:

*votes 2*

Yeah I meant 3. The unchangeable votes thing.

(Tbh I don't think it's a good idea in any game)

[JaggedJimmyJay]

As a man obsessed with balance, I am facepalming right now.

This should be so easy.

And #3 is moronic.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Let them hijack if you think they will. They’ll still lynch each other.

Fucking hell

[Quin]

YOU ARE MORONIC

[Quin]

[ColinIsCool]

Let them hijack if you think they will. They’ll still lynch each other.

Fucking hell

The two scum thing is really throwing a wrench into how I think about the game. I'm not used to it.

[ColinIsCool]

JJJ is Thanos confirmed

[colonialbob]

Let them hijack if you think they will. They’ll still lynch each other.

Fucking hell

You seem very worked up over this

[Spacedaisy]

Voted #6

[ColinIsCool]

We should treat this like a lynch. People who voted without providing an argument should be viewed with suspicion.

[Elohcin]

Oh, well, hello everyone. I'm Charlie Blackmon. Center-fielder for the Colorado Rockies.

So, when we die, we turn into our character/item/role? Can we still win?

[Epignosis]

U my boi CB

U my fuckin boiiiiiiiiiiiii

I love Tommy Carlson. I love you Turnip Head.

[colonialbob]

In case anybody is wondering, assuming two teams of 6 mafia (just a broad guess, but seems reasonable) there's a 99.3% chance that at least 1 out of the 8 will be mafia. 93% there's at least 2. (That's without assuming anything about who get a killed tonight)

[Epignosis]

Oh, well, hello everyone. I'm Charlie Blackmon. Center-fielder for the Colorado Rockies.

So, when we die, we turn into our character/item/role? Can we still win?

You are so cute. Can I take you to dinner?

[Epignosis]

Oh! I see you've all somehow got a hold of my diary. That's inconvenient.

[wolbre04]

I wake up to 14 pages of stuff that lead to a stump lynch

[Epignosis]

are me and Jay represented as DJ in epig's diary entries? i'm both humbled and insulted at the same time

Oh, that's really funny!

No, I'm sorry. When I was talking about DJ, I wasn't talking about you. I was referring to DJ Lemahieu, our second baseman:



It's cool that you thought I was mixing your name and your boyfriend's name into an abbreviation. That's cute. You guys should carve up a tree or something! That'd be awesome.

[nutella]

Oh, well, hello everyone. I'm Charlie Blackmon. Center-fielder for the Colorado Rockies.

...oh ok i was way off lmao

[Epignosis]

I have to hit leadoff again in San Francisco tomorrow, but since I'm here in the meantime after a bad shipping from the Giants (Jon Gray really pitched poorly), I might as well read up on all of you and comment on all of you, since you all have apparently been reading up on me and commenting on me! So funny how that happens.

[Epignosis]

This is a mighty long list. Wow. Some people are going to have to be cut. I'll help make those decisions.

ColinIsCool
colonialbob
Dragon D. Luffy
dunya
Elohcin
Epignosis
Golden
insertnamehere
Jackofhearts2005
JaggedJimmyJay
juliets
Kenway
Kites
Kylemii
lapluie
Lilefer
Long Con
Lunalee
Marmot
motel room
novaselinenever
nutella
Quin
Scotty
sig
Spacedaisy

I'll start with ColinisCool and work my way down, if that's okay with everybody.
speedchuck
sprityo
Turnip Head
Wolbre04
Zephyrus

[Epignosis]

Our bus hit a speed bump and put my comment in between all the names. Ah well.

[nutella]

#6 is extremely pro-civilian. Vote it now!

What’s the reasoning?

Have to be fast

Civs best weapon is lynches

That’s two free lynches

Two bonus suspects flipped

A double lynch is pro town and a triple lynch is amazing

Not even close. If any other option wins them we’re clowns and civs deserve to lose

but what if we lynch three civs in one day :\

I think I like #1 the most, but I'm considering #2 and #6 as well -- I'm just wary that they could both increase the odds of mislynching. Jay seems really convinced about 6 though and he's done some pretty crazy deep analysis on game balance so perhaps he's right. I'm definitely leaning 1 though, it just feels safest.

[nutella]

Mmm okay Jay's right. We're bound to mislynch people early anyway but with 3 top suspects getting lynched at least one of them will definitely be bad and in any case they will give us a ton of info to work with. I'm in support of #6 and voting accordingly.

[Golden]

#6 is extremely pro-civilian. Vote it now!

Seems extremely pro-mafia to me.

[Golden]

Mmm okay Jay's right. We're bound to mislynch people early anyway but with 3 top suspects getting lynched at least one of them will definitely be bad and in any case they will give us a ton of info to work with. I'm in support of #6 and voting accordingly.

On day one of Ancient Greece all three of the suspects with votes were town.

There’s no guarantee this catches us mafia but I’d say there’s a very high probability it lynched at least some town.

If that’s jays logic it’s extremely bad.

[Golden]

If that’s the option that wins I’ll be voting jay tomorrow.

[Golden]

Literally the only extremely pro-mafia option in thebunch. The most manipulable.

[nutella]

#6 is extremely pro-civilian. Vote it now!

Seems extremely pro-mafia to me.

I thought this at first, but then I thought about it and Jay is definitely right. Think about it. We'd most likely end up lynching the same people within the next couple days, and if they end up being civ, then that sucks but it sucks more if we waste three days doing it. Better to get that over with early and learn from it, and odds are we'll lynch someone bad and have much better direction going forward.

[nutella]

Mmm okay Jay's right. We're bound to mislynch people early anyway but with 3 top suspects getting lynched at least one of them will definitely be bad and in any case they will give us a ton of info to work with. I'm in support of #6 and voting accordingly.

On day one of Ancient Greece all three of the suspects with votes were town.

There’s no guarantee this catches us mafia but I’d say there’s a very high probability it lynched at least some town.

If that’s jays logic it’s extremely bad.

Nah because we'd most likely end up lynching those people anyway. If they're suspicious they're suspicious and we're gonna use a lynch on them. We get through that awkward phase more quickly and then we're getting somewhere.

[nutella]

Literally the only extremely pro-mafia option in thebunch. The most manipulable.

I think #5 is probably the most pro-mafia.

[Golden]

#6 is extremely pro-civilian. Vote it now!

Seems extremely pro-mafia to me.

I thought this at first, but then I thought about it and Jay is definitely right. Think about it. We'd most likely end up lynching the same people within the next couple days, and if they end up being civ, then that sucks but it sucks more if we waste three days doing it. Better to get that over with early and learn from it, and odds are we'll lynch someone bad and have much better direction going forward.

I strongly disagree.

The town will control the top lynch. It won’t be at all difficult for the mafia to control the second and third. The idea that you just march on and lynch those people anyway is demonstrably false, often second place in an early lynch survives the whole game. I cannot overstate how strongly this option favours mafia.

What’s more generally speaking speeding up the rate of death in any given fashion is considered not to alter balance so for jay to make this claim is HIGHLY suspect.

[colonialbob]

Mmm okay Jay's right. We're bound to mislynch people early anyway but with 3 top suspects getting lynched at least one of them will definitely be bad and in any case they will give us a ton of info to work with. I'm in support of #6 and voting accordingly.

On day one of Ancient Greece all three of the suspects with votes were town.

There’s no guarantee this catches us mafia but I’d say there’s a very high probability it lynched at least some town.

If that’s jays logic it’s extremely bad.

Nah because we'd most likely end up lynching those people anyway. If they're suspicious they're suspicious and we're gonna use a lynch on them. We get through that awkward phase more quickly and then we're getting somewhere.

Would we though? How often does a leading candidate turn around and immediately get lynched the next couple of days?

[nutella]

hmm maybe that's a good point. but I think we can work together so that town is controlling all three lynches

[ColinIsCool]

We'd most likely end up lynching the same people within the next couple days, and if they end up being civ, then that sucks but it sucks more if we waste three days doing it.

I don't think that's necessarily the case at all. I've noticed a tendency on this site for the lynch subject to rapidly change from day phase to day phase; in Ancient Greece, I was extremely surprised following it at how heat would just drop off people, like Sloonei, who was scum and a primary suspect in the early phases but never seriously considered again once he managed to elude the noose.

[Golden]

Mmm okay Jay's right. We're bound to mislynch people early anyway but with 3 top suspects getting lynched at least one of them will definitely be bad and in any case they will give us a ton of info to work with. I'm in support of #6 and voting accordingly.

On day one of Ancient Greece all three of the suspects with votes were town.

There’s no guarantee this catches us mafia but I’d say there’s a very high probability it lynched at least some town.

If that’s jays logic it’s extremely bad.

Nah because we'd most likely end up lynching those people anyway. If they're suspicious they're suspicious and we're gonna use a lynch on them. We get through that awkward phase more quickly and then we're getting somewhere.

In that game nova survives till end game (admittedly turned out to be Indy) and epi was killed by the mafia. This statement that we’dmost likely lynch them anyway is demonstrably false and something town jay wouldn’t believe. Are we really saying dunyas lynch today is inevitable, for example?

I’ve come second in many lynches and I cannot remember one time I was lynched the next day.

False false false!!!! Most likely outcome is mafia manage to lynch someone who is on to them without many votes.

[Golden]

hmm maybe that's a good point. but I think we can work together so that town is controlling all three lynches

Seriously jays logic is awful but worst of all it’s not consistent in my opinion with what town jay would say.

[nutella]

What’s more generally speaking speeding up the rate of death in any given fashion is considered not to alter balance so for jay to make this claim is HIGHLY suspect.

and as for this, I don't think he's bullshitting it, I think it checks out with his views on balance. he is always going on about how important lynches are for the civs, and this essentially increases the lynch-to-NK ratio which gives civs more power.

[colonialbob]

Golden climbing my good karma table

[Quin]

nutella is bad

[Epignosis]

Coliniscool

Colin is cool. No doubt.

Colin is also conservative, in that he wasn't willing to give me a chance. I want to dislike him for that, but I don't.

Colin has been bouncing around on people, stating his opinions clearly, stating his reservations in a similar manner, and even defending himself without restraint. He seems cool.

I have some issues I may revisit later, but for now I'm going to give Colin a single.

SINGLE

[colonialbob]

What’s more generally speaking speeding up the rate of death in any given fashion is considered not to alter balance so for jay to make this claim is HIGHLY suspect.

and as for this, I don't think he's bullshitting it, I think it checks out with his views on balance. he is always going on about how important lynches are for the civs, and this essentially increases the lynch-to-NK ratio which gives civs more power.

But that's only true if this triple-lynch is the same as 3 regular lynches. I think it's pretty firmly not, since town can't control all 3 places with any reasonable assumptions on mafia sizes.

[ColinIsCool]

What’s more generally speaking speeding up the rate of death in any given fashion is considered not to alter balance so for jay to make this claim is HIGHLY suspect.

and as for this, I don't think he's bullshitting it, I think it checks out with his views on balance. he is always going on about how important lynches are for the civs, and this essentially increases the lynch-to-NK ratio which gives civs more power.

I checked out his balance worksheet to try and see if there were any indicators of how this all aligns according to that but couldn't really find anything solid to look at, btw.

[Golden]

What’s more generally speaking speeding up the rate of death in any given fashion is considered not to alter balance so for jay to make this claim is HIGHLY suspect.

and as for this, I don't think he's bullshitting it, I think it checks out with his views on balance. he is always going on about how important lynches are for the civs, and this essentially increases the lynch-to-NK ratio which gives civs more power.

That’s not an unfair point, maybe it’s not as bad coming from jay as my instinct, but he’s still very wrong. If it was three lunches and everyone got three votes, maybe. Dilution of town influence over each individual lynch is bad, though. I’d expect each of the two mafia teams to control one of the three if they’re competent.

[nutella]

Would we though? How often does a leading candidate turn around and immediately get lynched the next couple of days?

yeah ok you and golden are right about that point. Still I think it may be good to just go balls to the wall and lynch on our early instincts. Hell, in FE Quin and I were both almost lynched day 1 but then both survived to the end and we were bad.

[colonialbob]

What’s more generally speaking speeding up the rate of death in any given fashion is considered not to alter balance so for jay to make this claim is HIGHLY suspect.

and as for this, I don't think he's bullshitting it, I think it checks out with his views on balance. he is always going on about how important lynches are for the civs, and this essentially increases the lynch-to-NK ratio which gives civs more power.

That’s not an unfair point, maybe it’s not as bad coming from jay as my instinct, but he’s still very wrong. If it was three lunches and everyone got three votes, maybe. Dilution of town influence over each individual lynch is bad, though. I’d expect each of the two mafia teams to control one of the three if they’re competent.

[nutella]

nutella is bad

No