U-Pick Mafia Vol 1 - Game Over

[nutella]

What’s more generally speaking speeding up the rate of death in any given fashion is considered not to alter balance so for jay to make this claim is HIGHLY suspect.

and as for this, I don't think he's bullshitting it, I think it checks out with his views on balance. he is always going on about how important lynches are for the civs, and this essentially increases the lynch-to-NK ratio which gives civs more power.

But that's only true if this triple-lynch is the same as 3 regular lynches. I think it's pretty firmly not, since town can't control all 3 places with any reasonable assumptions on mafia sizes.

uurrghhh you may convince me yet. maybe I'm too hopeful in thinking we can spread town control to 3 strong candidates. but really this all goes back to the benefit of how much we will learn from that day. if two of the lynchees are town then we can look to who tried to control those votes and we'll have some juicy material to work with

[nutella]

Like... option #1 sounds nice but it doesn't actually really accomplish much. It gives people an outlet to express feelings on more than one top suspect, but it still ultimately results in a single lynch. It's like in Dominion when you draw a bunch of cards without having an action split, you know?

[Golden]

What’s more generally speaking speeding up the rate of death in any given fashion is considered not to alter balance so for jay to make this claim is HIGHLY suspect.

and as for this, I don't think he's bullshitting it, I think it checks out with his views on balance. he is always going on about how important lynches are for the civs, and this essentially increases the lynch-to-NK ratio which gives civs more power.

But that's only true if this triple-lynch is the same as 3 regular lynches. I think it's pretty firmly not, since town can't control all 3 places with any reasonable assumptions on mafia sizes.

uurrghhh you may convince me yet. maybe I'm too hopeful in thinking we can spread town control to 3 strong candidates. but really this all goes back to the benefit of how much we will learn from that day. if two of the lynchees are town then we can look to who tried to control those votes and we'll have some juicy material to work with

Town can’t even reliably control one lynch. We’re uninformed. There might come a time later when this rule would be useful but it’s probably most town-leaning when we have a much better idea of what’s going on.

I would throw my hands in the air and pretty much ignore tomorrow if that rule happened. Ita basically a ‘mafia lynch town golden’ rule. It’s seriously awful. AWFUL Nutella. There is zero to commend it as a good idea.

[ColinIsCool]

wolbre, Spacedaisy and speed should weigh in.

[nutella]

What’s more generally speaking speeding up the rate of death in any given fashion is considered not to alter balance so for jay to make this claim is HIGHLY suspect.

and as for this, I don't think he's bullshitting it, I think it checks out with his views on balance. he is always going on about how important lynches are for the civs, and this essentially increases the lynch-to-NK ratio which gives civs more power.

But that's only true if this triple-lynch is the same as 3 regular lynches. I think it's pretty firmly not, since town can't control all 3 places with any reasonable assumptions on mafia sizes.

uurrghhh you may convince me yet. maybe I'm too hopeful in thinking we can spread town control to 3 strong candidates. but really this all goes back to the benefit of how much we will learn from that day. if two of the lynchees are town then we can look to who tried to control those votes and we'll have some juicy material to work with

Town can’t even reliably control one lynch. We’re uninformed. There might come a time later when this rule would be useful but it’s probably most town-leaning when we have a much better idea of what’s going on.

I would throw my hands in the air and pretty much ignore tomorrow if that rule happened. Ita basically a ‘mafia lynch town golden’ rule. It’s seriously awful. AWFUL Nutella. There is zero to commend it as a good idea.

Perhaps. Perhaps you're right. Perhaps it would be better later in the game. In the meantime we're still sure to mislynch a couple people though. I just like having a higher probability of lynching one baddie tomorrow, if it would have otherwise taken us three days to get our first.

[Epignosis]

coloinalbob

While I appreciate colinalbob's support of me in the end, I don't think I can reciprocate.

His posts were all wild, going this way and that, like the balls do in Wrigley Field when the wind is going nuts.

I'd vote DDL if he was on the poll I think.

This doesn't mean anything to me, I'm afraid.

I'd like colonialbob to settle in and get comfortable. For now, he's a fly out.

FLYOUT

[ColinIsCool]

The more I think about it, the more I think that a mafia would want to vote for 6. Some of the options are too anti-town to even consider, but 6 is right in that sweet spot where you can make a coherent argument for it and still set yourself up nicely to really fuck the town/other teams. But I dunno.

[Scotty]

Wokay well I missed most of Saturday and haven’t read the past 14 pages. Sorry I don’t know what happened, so I skipped to the end. I’ll read back when I get a hot second tomorrow (which isn’t much. My weekend is slammed)
Epi got lynched! What a shocker! You guys love trying to kill him early, dontcha. He sure showed you!!

Im mulling over the night options i’m betting that even if we mislynch at least 2, (which wouldn’t surprise me, and if you’re convinced we can catch 2 baddies, then you wayyy too optimistic) you’ll find some saving opportunities from baddies.

I do think the odds are better that T least 1 baddie will be found out with a 3 way lynch, so I’m with jjj and nutella and gonn vote that

[Jackofhearts2005]

#6 is extremely pro-civilian. Vote it now!

As historically second most suspicious player, I object.

[Golden]

Honestly if that poll option wins I’ll be looking extremely strongly at anyone who is on it. Every mafia in the game will want to pick it.

[Golden]

The more I think about it, the more I think that a mafia would want to vote for 6. Some of the options are too anti-town to even consider, but 6 is right in that sweet spot where you can make a coherent argument for it and still set yourself up nicely to really fuck the town/other teams. But I dunno.

There’s zero doubt that it’s what mafia would want to win. It’s what I’d vote for if I were mafia, every time.

[Scotty]

The more I think about it, the more I think that a mafia would want to vote for 6. Some of the options are too anti-town to even consider, but 6 is right in that sweet spot where you can make a coherent argument for it and still set yourself up nicely to really fuck the town/other teams. But I dunno.

Lol yeah true

Ok but devils advocate: we’re bound to get some mislynches in this game anyway, and there’s nowhere to hide for baddies that may have been saved in singular lynches. I think there is juicier jnfotk to be gained in one day

[Epignosis]

Honestly if that poll option wins I’ll be looking extremely strongly at anyone who is on it. Every mafia in the game will want to pick it.

I don't know.

If your opponent has three men on base, you want a GIDP (ground into double play), right? That means you give your team two outs instead of one or zero, which is great.

If you can manipulate one play three time at once, who is to say you can't manipulate three plays one time each?

[nutella]

[mention]wolbre04[/mention], [mention]speedchuck[/mention], and [mention]Spacedaisy[/mention] all voted for #6 without saying why or saying anything at all. given the amount of talking-out-loud I did upon deciding on it, I find their votes pretty dang suspicious.

[Scotty]

Honestly if that poll option wins I’ll be looking extremely strongly at anyone who is on it. Every mafia in the game will want to pick it.

I’m picking it. Be suspect of me, I don’t care

BUT do think about the positives. I think jjj has a good argument, whether or not mafia would also want that is circumstantial

[nutella]

Honestly if that poll option wins I’ll be looking extremely strongly at anyone who is on it. Every mafia in the game will want to pick it.

Yeah honestly I am surprised it already had so many when I voted, and that makes me a lot more wary of it. If I was just joining Jay on it I'd be a lot more confident in my decision/justification for it being pro-civ, but now I think you're probably right that it's attractive to mafia.

[Scotty]

coloinalbob

While I appreciate colinalbob's support of me in the end, I don't think I can reciprocate.

His posts were all wild, going this way and that, like the balls do in Wrigley Field when the wind is going nuts.

I'd vote DDL if he was on the poll I think.

This doesn't mean anything to me, I'm afraid.

I'd like colonialbob to settle in and get comfortable. For now, he's a fly out.

FLYOUT

You had a big ole name misspell there. Bad. You should be DFA’d

[nutella]

The more I think about it, the more I think that a mafia would want to vote for 6. Some of the options are too anti-town to even consider, but 6 is right in that sweet spot where you can make a coherent argument for it and still set yourself up nicely to really fuck the town/other teams. But I dunno.

Lol yeah true

Ok but devils advocate: we’re bound to get some mislynches in this game anyway, and there’s nowhere to hide for baddies that may have been saved in singular lynches. I think there is juicier jnfotk to be gained in one day

Yeah this is the main reason I'm weighing in its favor. We'll learn SO MUCH more juicy shit that day then we ever could otherwise.

[Golden]

Honestly if that poll option wins I’ll be looking extremely strongly at anyone who is on it. Every mafia in the game will want to pick it.

I’m picking it. Be suspect of me, I don’t care

BUT do think about the positives. I think jjj has a good argument, whether or not mafia would also want that is circumstantial

No his argument is awful. It’s seriously bad.

I will just ask for modkill if this option wins because it’s basically town saying ‘hey, I know, why don’t we just let mafia pick off people they’re threatened by without having to nk them. What amazing fortune!’

I have never watched townsmen do willingly lead themselves to slaughter. I don’t often use the word stupid but picking that option is stupid. It’s really really really really really stupid.

[Scotty]

Guys guys guys. This is a madness game. Half of us will probably be dead by tomorrow, me included. People are supposed to die. Let’s just lynch 3 baddies tomorrow and hurry the game along, because they probably aren’t waiting on us.

Both teams could kill tonight lol

[Golden]

What information would we learn from a triple town hanging?

[ColinIsCool]

What information would we learn from a triple town hanging?

This is where I'm at. I think I understand the argument that lynches are a town's best weapon, but I've also seen a lot of lynches where town just fucks it up and walks away with "clarity" regarding a dead person, not much else.

[Golden]

The arguments in favour of this are straw men. Get your head out of the sand and think like as if you’re mafia guys. This option is a mafia wet dream.

[Epignosis]

Honestly if that poll option wins I’ll be looking extremely strongly at anyone who is on it. Every mafia in the game will want to pick it.

I’m picking it. Be suspect of me, I don’t care

BUT do think about the positives. I think jjj has a good argument, whether or not mafia would also want that is circumstantial

No his argument is awful. It’s seriously bad.

I will just ask for modkill if this option wins because it’s basically town saying ‘hey, I know, why don’t we just let mafia pick off people they’re threatened by without having to nk them. What amazing fortune!’

I have never watched townsmen do willingly lead themselves to slaughter. I don’t often use the word stupid but picking that option is stupid. It’s really really really really really stupid.

Lynches are the tool of the civilians. So I've heard. I've never played Mafia. I'm Charlie Blackmon. I play baseball.

But this kid in the dugout kept saying how lynches keep mafia in check. He said, "Maybe instead pretend you got three lynches in a row with no Night kills in between. How would that feel?"

Sounds pretty good, even though I don't know anything about that.

[nutella]

What information would we learn from a triple town hanging?

This is where I'm at. I think I understand the argument that lynches are a town's best weapon, but I've also seen a lot of lynches where town just fucks it up and walks away with "clarity" regarding a dead person, not much else.

This is definitely a fair question. I think there is still something to be said for looking at whoever seemed a little too happy to go along with those lynches, but it's certainly not a foolproof fount of information in the case of a triple town lynch. Again, perhaps I'm too optimistic about the probability of getting a baddie, but I'd really like to think we are on the right track with some of our top suspects.

Anyway, I would very much like to see Jay's answer to this.

[Epignosis]

What information would we learn from a triple town hanging?

What would you learn from one?

[ColinIsCool]

But this kid in the dugout kept saying how lynches keep mafia in check. He said, "Maybe instead pretend you got three lynches in a row with no Night kills in between. How would that feel?"

Dang. That does sound pretty good, Charlie. But I'm also not confident that we have enough to draw on to make an informed decision tomorrow, let alone 3.

[nutella]

Honestly if that poll option wins I’ll be looking extremely strongly at anyone who is on it. Every mafia in the game will want to pick it.

I’m picking it. Be suspect of me, I don’t care

BUT do think about the positives. I think jjj has a good argument, whether or not mafia would also want that is circumstantial

No his argument is awful. It’s seriously bad.

I will just ask for modkill if this option wins because it’s basically town saying ‘hey, I know, why don’t we just let mafia pick off people they’re threatened by without having to nk them. What amazing fortune!’

I have never watched townsmen do willingly lead themselves to slaughter. I don’t often use the word stupid but picking that option is stupid. It’s really really really really really stupid.

Lynches are the tool of the civilians. So I've heard. I've never played Mafia. I'm Charlie Blackmon. I play baseball.

But this kid in the dugout kept saying how lynches keep mafia in check. He said, "Maybe instead pretend you got three lynches in a row with no Night kills in between. How would that feel?"

Sounds pretty good, even though I don't know anything about that.

Yeah also again from a balance perspective I think three lynches per one nightkill is a big advantage for the civs, if it's played right.

[Scotty]

What information would we learn from a triple town hanging?

I don’t think there will be a triple town hanging. That’s just wishless thinking.

Also If there’s to be a triple mislynch, then what’s to say that wouldn’t have happened in 3 straight days?

[Epignosis]

Guys, I'm a baseball player. I don't understand what you do.

If you could have three Day phases in a row, would you take them? If not, why not?

[Epignosis]

But this kid in the dugout kept saying how lynches keep mafia in check. He said, "Maybe instead pretend you got three lynches in a row with no Night kills in between. How would that feel?"

Dang. That does sound pretty good, Charlie. But I'm also not confident that we have enough to draw on to make an informed decision tomorrow, let alone 3.

Your opponents DO have enough confidence to make informed decisions in the Night, Colin.

[ColinIsCool]

This being a bastard game, I hope Mac just doesn't implement anything after all the debate, it'd be the funniest option.

[MacDougall]

This being a bastard game, I hope Mac just doesn't implement anything after all the debate, it'd be the funniest option.

You mean like how I made it seem like half the players were gonna be mod-killed on day 1 and then not a single player was even lynched? I'd never do such a thing.

[nutella]

Guys, I'm a baseball player. I don't understand what you do.

If you could have three Day phases in a row, would you take them? If not, why not?

Thanks Epi, this argument is reinforcing my confidence in this decision -- it's really stupid not to take this opportunity, Jay's right about that and sorry Golden you're wrong for thinking it's stupid to do it. It's statistically, computably, objectively a better chance for the civs compared to a basic prototypical series of lynches and nightkills one-to-one. To be completely fair, this thought experiment of Epi's is not a perfect one again for the reason that it's condensed into a single phase of discussion and we wouldn't necessarily lynch the same people on three separate days and that it's a single vote spread so harder for the town to control all three lynches, but it's early in the game, there are a lot of us, I'm sure we can manage to get a set of 3 candidates that enough civs would like to vote for.

[ColinIsCool]

Your opponents DO have enough confidence to make informed decisions in the Night, Colin.

Yeah, I certainly won't dispute that.

[Golden]

I’ve finisjed harping on it now everyone knows my view. Town are probably jumping on what should be a honey pot. But if it wins it wins.

Moving on to ‘who on it is bad’. I’ll get a hit list out of this.

[Golden]

Guys, I'm a baseball player. I don't understand what you do.

If you could have three Day phases in a row, would you take them? If not, why not?

Of course.

In such a case, every townie would have three votes.

[Quin]

Guys, I'm a baseball player. I don't understand what you do.

If you could have three Day phases in a row, would you take them? If not, why not?

It isn't three day phases in a row. It's three at once.

[Golden]

Guys, I'm a baseball player. I don't understand what you do.

If you could have three Day phases in a row, would you take them? If not, why not?

Thanks Epi, this argument is reinforcing my confidence in this decision -- it's really stupid not to take this opportunity, Jay's right about that and sorry Golden you're wrong for thinking it's stupid to do it. It's statistically, computably, objectively a better chance for the civs compared to a basic prototypical series of lynches and nightkills one-to-one. To be completely fair, this thought experiment of Epi's is not a perfect one again for the reason that it's condensed into a single phase of discussion and we wouldn't necessarily lynch the same people on three separate days and that it's a single vote spread so harder for the town to control all three lynches, but it's early in the game, there are a lot of us, I'm sure we can manage to get a set of 3 candidates that enough civs would like to vote for.

Nutella is bad and at the top of my hit list.

She’s pretending to engage but she’ll ‘hope’ in the face of good logic and agree that non-analogous situations are persuasive.

I don’t believe she is genuinely considering any alternative.

[Golden]

Jay is second on my hit list, for advocating for a twist in which the town has to spread their vote thin and the result is easily manipulated by people who know more.

[MacDougall]

At this juncture this game has more posts than Turf Wars and Talking Heads combined had AT THE CONCLUSION OF NIGHT 1.

[Quin]

Guys, I'm a baseball player. I don't understand what you do.

If you could have three Day phases in a row, would you take them? If not, why not?

Thanks Epi, this argument is reinforcing my confidence in this decision -- it's really stupid not to take this opportunity, Jay's right about that and sorry Golden you're wrong for thinking it's stupid to do it. It's statistically, computably, objectively a better chance for the civs compared to a basic prototypical series of lynches and nightkills one-to-one. To be completely fair, this thought experiment of Epi's is not a perfect one again for the reason that it's condensed into a single phase of discussion and we wouldn't necessarily lynch the same people on three separate days and that it's a single vote spread so harder for the town to control all three lynches, but it's early in the game, there are a lot of us, I'm sure we can manage to get a set of 3 candidates that enough civs would like to vote for.

Nutella is bad and at the top of my hit list.

She’s pretending to engage but she’ll ‘hope’ in the face of good logic and agree that non-analogous situations are persuasive.

I don’t believe she is genuinely considering any alternative.

nutella is also bad for posing this whole "we should just lynch let three people be lynched because they're all suspicious anyway and we'll end up lynching them eventually" bullshit.

[Epignosis]

Guys, I'm a baseball player. I don't understand what you do.

If you could have three Day phases in a row, would you take them? If not, why not?

It isn't three day phases in a row. It's three at once.

I'm aware.

My point is that, if you wouldn't take three at once, would you take three with Night kills in between them?

[Golden]

I cannot believe Nutella could see this as being statistically a better option out if epis claim. She doesn’t miss mathematical flaws.

[Epignosis]

I cannot believe Nutella could see this as being statistically a better option out if epis claim. She doesn’t miss mathematical flaws.

2) The poll will only have 8 people on it, selected randomly

Make your case for this thing.

[Golden]

There are however many town votes. Let’s say for the sake of argument there are 20 town, 8 mafia, 2 third parties. I expect Mac to have more 3p and quite possibly that would be unbalanced towards mafia so it’s more likely we have 18 civs or fewer.

Even if we could know who all civs were, agree and split them evenly - that’s only six on each of three chains with twelve other votes out there. And in reality we can’t control it that much.

On day one second place had four votes. FOUR!

The reason the town has an advantage in a lynch is they have strength in numbers. You are diluting this down to six civs per lynch. That’s bad odds and bad statistics to suggest otherwise!

[Golden]

I cannot believe Nutella could see this as being statistically a better option out if epis claim. She doesn’t miss mathematical flaws.

2) The poll will only have 8 people on it, selected randomly

Make your case for this thing.

I think it could provide focussed conversation, which is something we’re lacking.

[Quin]

Guys, I'm a baseball player. I don't understand what you do.

If you could have three Day phases in a row, would you take them? If not, why not?

It isn't three day phases in a row. It's three at once.

I'm aware.

My point is that, if you wouldn't take three at once, would you take three with Night kills in between them?

The former is statistically better at face value. In a general setup, four deaths over six. The first, 80% of those deaths are within town's control. 50% for the latter. But in the first case only 25% of those deaths are in my control. In the second I can control 50%. As Golden said, give me three votes and that changes things.

[Epignosis]

There are however many town votes. Let’s say for the sake of argument there are 20 town, 8 mafia, 2 third parties. I expect Mac to have more 3p and quite possibly that would be unbalanced towards mafia so it’s more likely we have 18 civs or fewer.

Even if we could know who all civs were, agree and split them evenly - that’s only six on each of three chains with twelve other votes out there. And in reality we can’t control it that much.

On day one second place had four votes. FOUR!

The reason the town has an advantage in a lynch is they have strength in numbers. You are diluting this down to six civs per lynch. That’s bad odds and bad statistics to suggest otherwise!

If you are mafia, do you like lynches or no lynches?

[Quin]

the first is 75%*