U-Pick Mafia Vol 1 - Game Over

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Epignosis as a tree stump is one of the best-possible applications of that role, so I am very pleased about that. Mafia teams having to contend with him the entire game and having no out is excellent.

[Golden]

And Golden, in stead of hemming and hawing about how many people are getting lynched Day 2, maybe, if you are good, you could start working out who should be lynched.

Dunya, Nutella, someone else.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

My perspectives:

1 - no particular slant
2 - slight civilian slant
3 - strong mafia slant
4 - slight mafia slant
5 - no particular slant
6 - strong civilian slant

[Golden]

For a long time in RYM Mafia, double-lynches were a normal possibility. They were incorporated into every game because it's just how it worked, and we didn't really consider other options. That was Mafia.

Eventually we had to discontinue them when we realized how unfairly town-slanted they were.

Now we're being offered a triple lynch, and I am being told that it favors mafia. I literally live in bizarro world, and am so irritated that I seriously considering being replaced. It's leading the vote thankfully.

You can’t do math. It’s a parabola.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

For a long time in RYM Mafia, double-lynches were a normal possibility. They were incorporated into every game because it's just how it worked, and we didn't really consider other options. That was Mafia.

Eventually we had to discontinue them when we realized how unfairly town-slanted they were.

Now we're being offered a triple lynch, and I am being told that it favors mafia. I literally live in bizarro world, and am so irritated that I seriously considering being replaced. It's leading the vote thankfully.

You can’t do math. It’s a parabola.

What?

[Golden]

Jay, imagine you have a triple lynch at lylo. What way does that lean?

[Epignosis]

Golden

I have issues with him, but I'll keep them to myself and watch him instead.

FOUL BALL

[Kylemii]

Charlie Blackmoor, you don't know this yet but obi wan kenobi was a character from a moving picture story called Star Wars. Obi Wan Kenobo gets killed by Darth Vader and becomes a cool ghost and everyone loves him cus of his beard and his laser sword. Darth Vader is a mean robot-man voiced by James Earl Jones, who is an actor who also played a role in the movie Field of Dreams which is about baseball ghosts, so you'd probably like it.

[Golden]

For a long time in RYM Mafia, double-lynches were a normal possibility. They were incorporated into every game because it's just how it worked, and we didn't really consider other options. That was Mafia.

Eventually we had to discontinue them when we realized how unfairly town-slanted they were.

Now we're being offered a triple lynch, and I am being told that it favors mafia. I literally live in bizarro world, and am so irritated that I seriously considering being replaced. It's leading the vote thankfully.

You can’t do math. It’s a parabola.

What?

It’s not a straight line. It’s not more civilian the more lynches there are. It’s a parabola. The more you dilute the civ vote, the faster it becomes mafia leaning.

[Spacedaisy]

Guys, I'm a baseball player. I don't understand what you do.

If you could have three Day phases in a row, would you take them? If not, why not?

Thanks Epi, this argument is reinforcing my confidence in this decision -- it's really stupid not to take this opportunity, Jay's right about that and sorry Golden you're wrong for thinking it's stupid to do it. It's statistically, computably, objectively a better chance for the civs compared to a basic prototypical series of lynches and nightkills one-to-one. To be completely fair, this thought experiment of Epi's is not a perfect one again for the reason that it's condensed into a single phase of discussion and we wouldn't necessarily lynch the same people on three separate days and that it's a single vote spread so harder for the town to control all three lynches, but it's early in the game, there are a lot of us, I'm sure we can manage to get a set of 3 candidates that enough civs would like to vote for.

Nutella is bad and at the top of my hit list.

She’s pretending to engage but she’ll ‘hope’ in the face of good logic and agree that non-analogous situations are persuasive.

I don’t believe she is genuinely considering any alternative.

I agree with this. Not just because of the way she has acted in the debate tonight but I have some concerns about things she did yesterday. I'll clarify more after I finish my catch up.

Lini [mention]Golden[/mention] How do you feel about Option #4?

[Marmot]

[mention]Charlie Blackmon[/mention] you'll be pleased to know a new emoji can be found in the post editing page. Enjoy.

[sprityo]

Bop it.

Shout it.

So the day ended four hours early? I’m confused

Bop it.

[Epignosis]

Charlie Blackmoor, you don't know this yet but obi wan kenobi was a character from a moving picture story called Star Wars. Obi Wan Kenobo gets killed by Darth Vader and becomes a cool ghost and everyone loves him cus of his beard and his laser sword. Darth Vader is a mean robot-man voiced by James Earl Jones, who is an actor who also played a role in the movie Field of Dreams which is about baseball ghosts, so you'd probably like it.

You're killing me smalls

[Epignosis]

@Charlie Blackmon you'll be pleased to know a new emoji can be found in the post editing page. Enjoy.

That's real nice.

[Golden]

Guys, I'm a baseball player. I don't understand what you do.

If you could have three Day phases in a row, would you take them? If not, why not?

Thanks Epi, this argument is reinforcing my confidence in this decision -- it's really stupid not to take this opportunity, Jay's right about that and sorry Golden you're wrong for thinking it's stupid to do it. It's statistically, computably, objectively a better chance for the civs compared to a basic prototypical series of lynches and nightkills one-to-one. To be completely fair, this thought experiment of Epi's is not a perfect one again for the reason that it's condensed into a single phase of discussion and we wouldn't necessarily lynch the same people on three separate days and that it's a single vote spread so harder for the town to control all three lynches, but it's early in the game, there are a lot of us, I'm sure we can manage to get a set of 3 candidates that enough civs would like to vote for.

Nutella is bad and at the top of my hit list.

She’s pretending to engage but she’ll ‘hope’ in the face of good logic and agree that non-analogous situations are persuasive.

I don’t believe she is genuinely considering any alternative.

I agree with this. Not just because of the way she has acted in the debate tonight but I have some concerns about things she did yesterday. I'll clarify more after I finish my catch up.

Lini @Golden How do you feel about Option #4?

Probably not alignment favouring but fun which I’m all for.

[Marmot]

I was about to do a statistical analysis of Syndicate games to see what the top three vote-getters were alignment-wise. Then I realized that the effect is lost if people don't realize they're lynching the top three players, so the point would not help.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Jay, imagine you have a triple lynch at lylo. What way does that lean?

How many people are alive at Lylo? There have to be enough people to place votes such that some kind of three-leader arrangement is possible. A 2v1 triple lynch, if actually triggered, would kill everyone and result in a draw. A 4v3 triple lynch would be a problem because one mafia vote can dictate a top-three position. A 5v3 triple lynch would be pro-civilian, as they'd have enough votes to control.

We're talking about Day 2 with 31 players alive though. If Mac set up the numbers for a balanced 2 mafia team closed setup the way he did years back in LOTR mafia, then the number of mafia on each team would reflect the balanced numbers for one team against the present civilian numbers -- in this case perhaps around 18-5-5 with 3 independents (or something in that general vicinity, accounting for his promised bastardization). 18 civilians can do whatever they want with a triple lynch. Any mafia influence will also inherently be affected by their own hunting as well, as they're eager to lynch the opposing team.

The only control definitely lost is the ability to have one player completely dominate the poll (perhaps getting lynched by a 15 vote margin or something) -- shit that is generally bad for the civilians anyway.

[Kylemii]

[mention]Quin[/mention] if I send you some beeroots will you play a game with me?

[Jackofhearts2005]

Bop it.

Shout it.

So the day ended four hours early? I’m confused

Bop it.

Strange device, do you gain advantages should someone pull or bop you?

[Kites]

guys it’s my birthday
nk me

[Marmot]

BOP SPRITYO

[JaggedJimmyJay]

[mention]Quin[/mention], why did you pick #3?

[Epignosis]

Hell, I gain an advantage if someone should pull or bop me.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Hell, I gain an advantage if someone should pull or bop me.

[Golden]

Jay, imagine you have a triple lynch at lylo. What way does that lean?

How many people are alive at Lylo? There have to be enough people to place votes such that some kind of three-leader arrangement is possible. A 2v1 triple lynch, if actually triggered, would kill everyone and result in a draw. A 4v3 triple lynch would be a problem because one mafia vote can dictate a top-three position. A 5v3 triple lynch would be pro-civilian, as they'd have enough votes to control.

We're talking about Day 2 with 31 players alive though. If Mac set up the numbers for a balanced 2 mafia team closed setup the way he did years back in LOTR mafia, then the number of mafia on each team would reflect the balanced numbers for one team against the present civilian numbers -- in this case perhaps around 18-5-5 with 3 independents (or something in that general vicinity, accounting for his promised bastardization). 18 civilians can do whatever they want with a triple lynch. Any mafia influence will also inherently be affected by their own hunting as well, as they're eager to lynch the opposing team.

The only control definitely lost is the ability to have one player completely dominate the poll (perhaps getting lynched by a 15 vote margin or something) -- shit that is generally bad for the civilians anyway.

At lylo you’re already relying on every living civilian agreeing on a baddie but 5 v 3 is pro-civilian even though you’d be relying on every civilian correctly agreeing on two baddies and splitting their votes correctly?

You’re dreaming if that’s your idea of pro-civilian. In such a case you are evidently better off taking it one step at a time.

[Epignosis]

Proud to see #6 in a big lead.

[Marmot]

Hell, I gain an advantage if someone should pull or bop me.

[Quin]

@Quin if I send you some beeroots will you play a game with me?

The compromise was to be resolved before EoD. But this is Night 1, so I will forgive it.

Yes, Kyle. I will play a game with you.

[colonialbob]

Guys, I'm a baseball player. I don't understand what you do.

If you could have three Day phases in a row, would you take them? If not, why not?

Duh.

But that's not what this is. This is three concurrent Day phases where each player only votes in one of them.

Sounds a lot shittier, right?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

At lylo you’re already relying on every living civilian agreeing on a baddie but 5 v 3 is pro-civilian even though you’d be relying on every civilian correctly agreeing on two baddies and splitting their votes correctly?

You’re dreaming if that’s your idea of pro-civilian. In such a case you are evidently better off taking it one step at a time.

In any LyLo with more than one evildoer alive, the civilians have to run through multiple cycles to perfection to win. A triple lynch affords them a chance to reduce that to fewer cycles, perhaps even one. If POE is at work and the civilians vote with any semblance of strategy, then a 2-mafia/1-civilian lynch result is entirely within reach -- and that'd net a 4 vs 1 situation. LyLo just became not LyLo in one move, and it wasn't even perfect execution. They gave up one civilian to a mafia voting block and still gained ground. If they screw the pooch it is analogous to lynching the wrong bastard at 5v3 anyway.

Day 2 is not LyLo. It is not remotely close. Why are we talking about this?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Guys, I'm a baseball player. I don't understand what you do.

If you could have three Day phases in a row, would you take them? If not, why not?

Duh.

But that's not what this is. This is three concurrent Day phases where each player only votes in one of them.

Sounds a lot shittier, right?

Shittier than three consecutive day phases? Sure.

Shittier than one ordinary day phase? No way.

[Epignosis]

Guys, I'm a baseball player. I don't understand what you do.

If you could have three Day phases in a row, would you take them? If not, why not?

Duh.

But that's not what this is. This is three concurrent Day phases where each player only votes in one of them.

Sounds a lot shittier, right?

I don't think so. Not at all. It makes people take a stand.

[colonialbob]

Guys, I'm a baseball player. I don't understand what you do.

If you could have three Day phases in a row, would you take them? If not, why not?

Duh.

But that's not what this is. This is three concurrent Day phases where each player only votes in one of them.

Sounds a lot shittier, right?

I don't think so. Not at all. It makes people take a stand.

This is a decent argument. It's also nothing to do with the one I refuted.

Triple lynch is not three Day phases in a row, full stop.

[Golden]

At lylo you’re already relying on every living civilian agreeing on a baddie but 5 v 3 is pro-civilian even though you’d be relying on every civilian correctly agreeing on two baddies and splitting their votes correctly?

You’re dreaming if that’s your idea of pro-civilian. In such a case you are evidently better off taking it one step at a time.

In any LyLo with more than one evildoer alive, the civilians have to run through multiple cycles to perfection to win. A triple lynch affords them a chance to reduce that to fewer cycles, perhaps even one. If POE is at work and the civilians vote with any semblance of strategy, then a 2-mafia/1-civilian lynch result is entirely within reach -- and that'd net a 4 vs 1 situation. LyLo just became not LyLo in one move, and it wasn't even perfect execution. They gave up one civilian to a mafia voting block and still gained ground. If they screw the pooch it is analogous to lynching the wrong bastard at 5v3 anyway.

Day 2 is not LyLo. It is not remotely close. Why are we talking about this?

Oh I see how it is. You can’t do math, but you’re so mad I’m calling you out on it that you aren’t willing to be stepped through actual probability.

Jay, you’re wrong. Flat wrong. I can do probability, very well. I’m trying to carefully step through why you’re wrong, but your head is in the sand.

[colonialbob]

Guys, I'm a baseball player. I don't understand what you do.

If you could have three Day phases in a row, would you take them? If not, why not?

Duh.

But that's not what this is. This is three concurrent Day phases where each player only votes in one of them.

Sounds a lot shittier, right?

Shittier than three consecutive day phases? Sure.

Shittier than one ordinary day phase? No way.

Disagree.

(I do agree the lylo thing is kind of an irrelevant sidebar)

[Golden]

Guys, I'm a baseball player. I don't understand what you do.

If you could have three Day phases in a row, would you take them? If not, why not?

Duh.

But that's not what this is. This is three concurrent Day phases where each player only votes in one of them.

Sounds a lot shittier, right?

Shittier than three consecutive day phases? Sure.

Shittier than one ordinary day phase? No way.

Yes way.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

At lylo you’re already relying on every living civilian agreeing on a baddie but 5 v 3 is pro-civilian even though you’d be relying on every civilian correctly agreeing on two baddies and splitting their votes correctly?

You’re dreaming if that’s your idea of pro-civilian. In such a case you are evidently better off taking it one step at a time.

In any LyLo with more than one evildoer alive, the civilians have to run through multiple cycles to perfection to win. A triple lynch affords them a chance to reduce that to fewer cycles, perhaps even one. If POE is at work and the civilians vote with any semblance of strategy, then a 2-mafia/1-civilian lynch result is entirely within reach -- and that'd net a 4 vs 1 situation. LyLo just became not LyLo in one move, and it wasn't even perfect execution. They gave up one civilian to a mafia voting block and still gained ground. If they screw the pooch it is analogous to lynching the wrong bastard at 5v3 anyway.

Day 2 is not LyLo. It is not remotely close. Why are we talking about this?

Oh I see how it is. You can’t do math, but you’re so mad I’m calling you out on it that you aren’t willing to be stepped through actual probability.

Jay, you’re wrong. Flat wrong. I can do probability, very well. I’m trying to carefully step through why you’re wrong, but your head is in the sand.

You didn't say a fucking thing about probability. You called it a parabola.

If you have numbers, then put them in the thread or shut the hell up.

[Epignosis]

Guys, I'm a baseball player. I don't understand what you do.

If you could have three Day phases in a row, would you take them? If not, why not?

Duh.

But that's not what this is. This is three concurrent Day phases where each player only votes in one of them.

Sounds a lot shittier, right?

I don't think so. Not at all. It makes people take a stand.

This is a decent argument. It's also nothing to do with the one I refuted.

Triple lynch is not three Day phases in a row, full stop.

Triple lynch requires two mafia teams to dance.

[Golden]

The lylo thing isn’t an irrelevant sidebar, it’s pointing out to jay that his idea that ‘moar lynches flavour town’ is a major oversimplification.

[ColinIsCool]

For a long time in RYM Mafia, double-lynches were a normal possibility. They were incorporated into every game because it's just how it worked, and we didn't really consider other options. That was Mafia.

Eventually we had to discontinue them when we realized how unfairly town-slanted they were.

Now we're being offered a triple lynch, and I am being told that it favors mafia. I literally live in bizarro world, and am so irritated that I seriously considering being replaced. It's leading the vote thankfully.

I know you have this stuff memorized, so when exactly was that? I don’t recall that being the norm at all.

[Golden]

At lylo you’re already relying on every living civilian agreeing on a baddie but 5 v 3 is pro-civilian even though you’d be relying on every civilian correctly agreeing on two baddies and splitting their votes correctly?

You’re dreaming if that’s your idea of pro-civilian. In such a case you are evidently better off taking it one step at a time.

In any LyLo with more than one evildoer alive, the civilians have to run through multiple cycles to perfection to win. A triple lynch affords them a chance to reduce that to fewer cycles, perhaps even one. If POE is at work and the civilians vote with any semblance of strategy, then a 2-mafia/1-civilian lynch result is entirely within reach -- and that'd net a 4 vs 1 situation. LyLo just became not LyLo in one move, and it wasn't even perfect execution. They gave up one civilian to a mafia voting block and still gained ground. If they screw the pooch it is analogous to lynching the wrong bastard at 5v3 anyway.

Day 2 is not LyLo. It is not remotely close. Why are we talking about this?

Oh I see how it is. You can’t do math, but you’re so mad I’m calling you out on it that you aren’t willing to be stepped through actual probability.

Jay, you’re wrong. Flat wrong. I can do probability, very well. I’m trying to carefully step through why you’re wrong, but your head is in the sand.

You didn't say a fucking thing about probability. You called it a parabola.

If you have numbers, then put them in the thread or shut the hell up.

Why not just ask for a replacement since you're so irritated?

[colonialbob]

Bop it.

Shout it.

So the day ended four hours early? I’m confused

Bop it.

Strange device, do you gain advantages should someone pull or bop you?

Such a device is surely worthy of being added to your storehouse.

(What I would give to see a Bop-It flying out of one of those big golden portals)

[JaggedJimmyJay]

For a long time in RYM Mafia, double-lynches were a normal possibility. They were incorporated into every game because it's just how it worked, and we didn't really consider other options. That was Mafia.

Eventually we had to discontinue them when we realized how unfairly town-slanted they were.

Now we're being offered a triple lynch, and I am being told that it favors mafia. I literally live in bizarro world, and am so irritated that I seriously considering being replaced. It's leading the vote thankfully.

I know you have this stuff memorized, so when exactly was that? I don’t recall that being the norm at all.

Double lynches were in nearly every game at least from when I started (#15) through the period when I started to develop my more assertive styles (#35).

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Why not just ask for a replacement since you're so irritated?

I'm trying to play a Mafia game, and I am promoting the strategy that I believe in the most. I haven't insulted you and you're insulting me. What the fuck?

I'll talk to the MoD. Whatever.

[colonialbob]

Guys, I'm a baseball player. I don't understand what you do.

If you could have three Day phases in a row, would you take them? If not, why not?

Duh.

But that's not what this is. This is three concurrent Day phases where each player only votes in one of them.

Sounds a lot shittier, right?

I don't think so. Not at all. It makes people take a stand.

This is a decent argument. It's also nothing to do with the one I refuted.

Triple lynch is not three Day phases in a row, full stop.

Triple lynch requires two mafia teams to dance.

Right, I agree with that argument. I happen to think narrowing the focus would be more beneficial, judging by a) how spread out our d1 votes were and b) how many people were like "lol yeah not reading this shit" (and who can blame them it's 30-some goddamned pages already).

[colonialbob]

40-some.

So.

[Golden]

I'll use numbers in your 5 vs 3 situation, Jay, since that's your 'town-leaning' one. I can't possibility demonstrate it with the complex numbers required for 31 players.

You have 5 civilians. On day one, each has a 0.428 shot at being right about who a mafia is. If they need to find two mafia on that day, they have a 0.286 probability of successfully identifying a second one.

However, if you kill one at a 0.428 probability and allow a nightkill, ending at 4 v 2 the next day, your odds of catching the second mafia increase from 0.286 to 0.333

That's the most basic illustration I can provide to demonstrate how catching two mafia on one day rather than on consecutive days is less likely and provides lower odds for the civilians.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The numbers absolutely live on a curve, and depends on the numbers. I can't compute the numbers because I don't know exactly what is out there. What I can say is that it sits on a curve, so while odds might increase from 1 to 2, they'd dramatically drop from 2 to 3, because you are diluting civilians too far.

[ColinIsCool]

I would appreciate the other RYMers in the game commenting on that statement, particularly the second paragraph about discontinuing the practice.

[Golden]

Why not just ask for a replacement since you're so irritated?

I'm trying to play a Mafia game, and I am promoting the strategy that I believe in the most. I haven't insulted you and you're insulting me. What the fuck?

I'll talk to the MoD. Whatever.

You are the one who said you were so irritated by the fact I disagreed with you you were considering being replaced. I was just replaying that back at you. Stop being irritated that I'm challenging your authority. You aren't always right.

[Golden]

Sorry, the 0.286 and 0.333 should be 0.333 and 0.4. I added themselves back into the equation by accident with the last two odds (they'd obviously know they are town).