U-Pick Mafia Vol 1 - Game Over

[Epignosis]

Bitch walked me.

[juliets]

@Quin, your vote is still utter shite. Scum read.

JJJ, Quin is not on discord yet which means he's still asleep.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

2 is one of the options I consider to be objectivelt bad foe town. Not by a large margin, but I dont see why there are people voting for it.

And yet option 6, considered by Jay to be 'strong town', has been mathematically proven not to be strong town.

No it hasn't. Conditions.

[Golden]

Uhhh yeah good luck with that

rip golden tbh

There's always a decent likelihood of that anyway.

[Sloonei]

Bitch walked me.

Steal a base, you bum. Look at Nolan driving in a run like a true professional!

[Golden]

2 is one of the options I consider to be objectivelt bad foe town. Not by a large margin, but I dont see why there are people voting for it.

And yet option 6, considered by Jay to be 'strong town', has been mathematically proven not to be strong town.

No it hasn't. Conditions.

The conditions can move it in either direction depending on the circumstances, but should be fundamentally neutral over all.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I was trying to determine the probabilities of 1 and 2 and 3 mafia in an 8 player poll for a couple of 5 and 5 mafia teams. I lost myself somewhere in the factorial web, but if I was on the right course, the chance of getting 1 ought to be about 98% and the chance of 2 in the '70s.

To break even I think we'll need 3 mafia among the 8. I screwed up the calculation somewhere and don't feel like trying again.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I don't know why I apostrophed that "70s". This is not a temporal problem.

I'll be putting on my bellbottoms.

[Scotty]

I’m 4 pages behind but got to the part where golden said he wrote the poll.

So?

This changes nothing to me. Why did everyone switch to randomville 8 card monty? THATS sparked my interest. You people really are relinquishing putting fate in your own hands, and honestly am shaking my head that golden or whoever talked you out of option 6.

[Long Con]

Flash-forward:

Oh merciful God in Heaven, if only we could just lynch three people today! IT'S THE ONLY WAY!

I know right? I'm not counting it out.

At the end of the day I learned a lesson today. I'm not going to try and do anything sly with the polls, they'll just be what they say they are from now on.

The Trickster made the night polls in A World Reborn.

[Long Con]

I’m 4 pages behind but got to the part where golden said he wrote the poll.

So?

This changes nothing to me. Why did everyone switch to randomville 8 card monty? THATS sparked my interest. You people really are relinquishing putting fate in your own hands, and honestly am shaking my head that golden or whoever talked you out of option 6.

He told us that he boobytrapped 6. I'm not risking it.

[Golden]

Flash-forward:

Oh merciful God in Heaven, if only we could just lynch three people today! IT'S THE ONLY WAY!

I know right? I'm not counting it out.

At the end of the day I learned a lesson today. I'm not going to try and do anything sly with the polls, they'll just be what they say they are from now on.

The Trickster made the night polls in A World Reborn.

Yeah, but you're a bastard

[juliets]

I was trying to determine the probabilities of 1 and 2 and 3 mafia in an 8 player poll for a couple of 5 and 5 mafia teams. I lost myself somewhere in the factorial web, but if I was on the right course, the chance of getting 1 ought to be about 98% and the chance of 2 in the '70s.

To break even I think we'll need 3 mafia among the 8. I screwed up the calculation somewhere and don't feel like trying again.

hmm...so the chances of getting 3, would you say that is low? I hate to second guess my vote at this stage but here I am.

[juliets]

EBWOP: would you say they are low

[colonialbob]

I was trying to determine the probabilities of 1 and 2 and 3 mafia in an 8 player poll for a couple of 5 and 5 mafia teams. I lost myself somewhere in the factorial web, but if I was on the right course, the chance of getting 1 ought to be about 98% and the chance of 2 in the '70s.

To break even I think we'll need 3 mafia among the 8. I screwed up the calculation somewhere and don't feel like trying again.

Its dangerous to math alone - use this!

[Scotty]

I’m 4 pages behind but got to the part where golden said he wrote the poll.

So?

This changes nothing to me. Why did everyone switch to randomville 8 card monty? THATS sparked my interest. You people really are relinquishing putting fate in your own hands, and honestly am shaking my head that golden or whoever talked you out of option 6.

He told us that he boobytrapped 6. I'm not risking it.

Oh, is that what he meant? I thought he just made it as a throwaway option even though it’s a great option.

What the fuck [mention]Golden[/mention] ? If it’s boobytrapped, why on earth would you make that such an enticing option? And no, it’s bullshit if you didn’t expext people to find it appealing

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I was trying to determine the probabilities of 1 and 2 and 3 mafia in an 8 player poll for a couple of 5 and 5 mafia teams. I lost myself somewhere in the factorial web, but if I was on the right course, the chance of getting 1 ought to be about 98% and the chance of 2 in the '70s.

To break even I think we'll need 3 mafia among the 8. I screwed up the calculation somewhere and don't feel like trying again.

hmm...so the chances of getting 3, would you say that is low? I hate to second guess my vote at this stage but here I am.

[mention]colonialbob[/mention]

[Golden]

scotty and nutella come worst out of the 'option 6' debacle. Possibly wolbre.

[Scotty]

scotty and nutella come worst out of the 'option 6' debacle. Possibly wolbre.

That didnt answer my question but ok.

I think you look bad, regardless of your lynch posting claim.

[Golden]

84% chance that there are 2. 55% that we get 3, apparently. That's based at 10 mafia in the population.

[Scotty]

Lol I just caught a glance of your sig where Canucklehead says civ golden is a hurricane of self-assurance. This seems awfully close to that

[Golden]

scotty and nutella come worst out of the 'option 6' debacle. Possibly wolbre.

That didnt answer my question but ok.

I think you look bad, regardless of your lynch posting claim.

You've never engaged with me or my content in any meaningful way, so how you think I look is uninformed at best. It's still pretty much based on a reaction to a single post that didn't say what you claim, and then relying on second hand accounts of what I've been saying without reading it.

[Scotty]

But then I don’t wanna run thru civ metas as the North Star so I’m sticking to thinking you’re bad

[colonialbob]

I was trying to determine the probabilities of 1 and 2 and 3 mafia in an 8 player poll for a couple of 5 and 5 mafia teams. I lost myself somewhere in the factorial web, but if I was on the right course, the chance of getting 1 ought to be about 98% and the chance of 2 in the '70s.

To break even I think we'll need 3 mafia among the 8. I screwed up the calculation somewhere and don't feel like trying again.

hmm...so the chances of getting 3, would you say that is low? I hate to second guess my vote at this stage but here I am.

colonialbob

[mention]juliets[/mention]

If we assume 5 and 5, with 2 town deaths tonight, the chances are:
0 mafia: 1.5%
1 mafia: 10.2%
2 mafia: 26.9%
3 mafia: 33.3%
4+ mafia: 28.4%

Or in other words, there's just over a 60% chance we have at least 3 mafia out of the 8.

[Sloonei]

Lol I just caught a glance of your sig where Canucklehead says civ golden is a hurricane of self-assurance. This seems awfully close to that

DIFFERENT FROM GREECE?

[colonialbob]

84% chance that there are 2. 55% that we get 3, apparently. That's based at 10 mafia in the population.

Chances go up with deaths tonight, assuming the deaths are town.

[Golden]

I’m 4 pages behind but got to the part where golden said he wrote the poll.

So?

This changes nothing to me. Why did everyone switch to randomville 8 card monty? THATS sparked my interest. You people really are relinquishing putting fate in your own hands, and honestly am shaking my head that golden or whoever talked you out of option 6.

He told us that he boobytrapped 6. I'm not risking it.

Oh, is that what he meant? I thought he just made it as a throwaway option even though it’s a great option.

What the fuck @Golden ? If it’s boobytrapped, why on earth would you make that such an enticing option? And no, it’s bullshit if you didn’t expext people to find it appealing

I did expect people to find it appealing - mafia.

From my perspective it is so obviously mafia-favouring at this stage that I did not imagine for a second town would find it appealing.

That I was wrong is still galling to me because I am very firm that I'm right about this. The evidence is on my side, and the arguments against are flowery and emotional.

[MacDougall]

I was trying to determine the probabilities of 1 and 2 and 3 mafia in an 8 player poll for a couple of 5 and 5 mafia teams. I lost myself somewhere in the factorial web, but if I was on the right course, the chance of getting 1 ought to be about 98% and the chance of 2 in the '70s.

To break even I think we'll need 3 mafia among the 8. I screwed up the calculation somewhere and don't feel like trying again.

hmm...so the chances of getting 3, would you say that is low? I hate to second guess my vote at this stage but here I am.

colonialbob

[mention]juliets[/mention]

2 town deaths tonight

[Golden]

84% chance that there are 2. 55% that we get 3, apparently. That's based at 10 mafia in the population.

Chances go up with deaths tonight, assuming the deaths are town.

We are probably better off sticking at 55% and assuming the deaths tonight are proportional.

[MacDougall]

You maths nerds are ruining my game. Shut the hell up with your maths.

[colonialbob]

84% chance that there are 2. 55% that we get 3, apparently. That's based at 10 mafia in the population.

Chances go up with deaths tonight, assuming the deaths are town.

(If you want I can calculate overall odds assuming kills are randomized from non-team members but people are yelling about math already...)

[Scotty]

scotty and nutella come worst out of the 'option 6' debacle. Possibly wolbre.

That didnt answer my question but ok.

I think you look bad, regardless of your lynch posting claim.

You've never engaged with me or my content in any meaningful way, so how you think I look is uninformed at best. It's still pretty much based on a reaction to a single post that didn't say what you claim, and then relying on second hand accounts of what I've been saying without reading it.

Yep, I won’t deny I’m mostly uninformed on half the game- I still have yet to read probably 20 pages or some shit. If I actually stop to think about it, and now assuming you boobytrapped option 6, I can see the blatant delegation from a civ perspective. Maybe I’m hasty in calling you bad.

[colonialbob]

You maths nerds are ruining my game. Shut the hell up with your maths.

Tfw you're gonna be "randomly" selected as one of the 8 names

[Spacedaisy]

@spacedaisy you should seriously reconsider your vote.

Good looking out, thanks.

[Scotty]

I switched to the stupid random one so that the Grim doesn’t come get me Ron and Herman

[Spacedaisy]

I'll go ahead and throw some town cred Elo's way for now.

please explain why, because I'm not seeing it.

[Scotty]

Actually yeah, if 6 really is boobytrapped, then here is NO benefit for golden to come out swinging against it all night like a bat out of hell. I think I strongly townfirm golden on this assumption.

How’s that for the fastest turn around I’ve ever had

[Scotty]

Actually yeah, if 6 really is boobytrapped, then here is NO benefit for golden to come out swinging against it all night like a bat out of hell. I think I strongly townfirm golden on this assumption.

How’s that for the fastest turn around I’ve ever had

Ebwop no benefit if he were mafia

[colonialbob]

Actually yeah, if 6 really is boobytrapped, then here is NO benefit for golden to come out swinging against it all night like a bat out of hell. I think I strongly townfirm golden on this assumption.

How’s that for the fastest turn around I’ve ever had

Cool I was about to ask you about this

[Scotty]

As for the case on Elo that I missed towards the end of day 1: I’m seeing it. When we were scum buddies in Home Alone, I seem to remember her using the “im too busy and haven’t read everything” excuse as well. I wouldn’t be opposed to seeing her in a noose tomorrow or at he very least a vig farting in her general direction

[Scotty]

Actually yeah, if 6 really is boobytrapped, then here is NO benefit for golden to come out swinging against it all night like a bat out of hell. I think I strongly townfirm golden on this assumption.

How’s that for the fastest turn around I’ve ever had

Cool I was about to ask you about this

Did you learn anything?

I feel like I can finally go to grad school now

[nutella]

Sloonei, you're bad.

You are super concerned about narrowing the focus for a day, but your focus in this game since joining us has been almost entirely on this damned night poll. Narrowing your current focus on players and reads would be akin to multiplying a fraction by 0.

I am worried about the thread in general

this is a scum sloonei I'll bet my hollandaise on it

[Scotty]

Charlie Blackmon, when you are done in the showers, can you go from Z-A instead and give me your take on wolbre and move up?

[ColinIsCool]

I'm gonna guess there are at least ... 4 deaths tonight.

[Golden]

Actually yeah, if 6 really is boobytrapped, then here is NO benefit for golden to come out swinging against it all night like a bat out of hell. I think I strongly townfirm golden on this assumption.

How’s that for the fastest turn around I’ve ever had

The reason is that when jay speaks everyone follows. Jay is like Thanos. The plan I had was gone at that point.

[Golden]

@spacedaisy you should seriously reconsider your vote.

Good looking out, thanks.

I believe you’re town.

[ColinIsCool]

Dread it ... run from it ... shit in your cornflakes still arrives.

[Scotty]

Sloonei, you're bad.

You are super concerned about narrowing the focus for a day, but your focus in this game since joining us has been almost entirely on this damned night poll. Narrowing your current focus on players and reads would be akin to multiplying a fraction by 0.

I am worried about the thread in general

this is a scum sloonei I'll bet my hollandaise on it

Sloonei is playing too silly right nw for -me to make any sort of alignment guess. I don’t know what you see that, say, TH hasn’t done

[Golden]

Actually yeah, if 6 really is boobytrapped, then here is NO benefit for golden to come out swinging against it all night like a bat out of hell. I think I strongly townfirm golden on this assumption.

How’s that for the fastest turn around I’ve ever had

Ebwop no benefit if he were mafia

To be fair if I'm mafia I'm just afraid of option 6 as Jay and DDL claim mafia should be and I'm lying about it being booby trapped, right?

But luckily, I'm not mafia.

Truth be told, there's no value to me coming out swinging against any option and making myself such a big target, or outing myself, if I'm mafia.

[Scotty]

Actually yeah, if 6 really is boobytrapped, then here is NO benefit for golden to come out swinging against it all night like a bat out of hell. I think I strongly townfirm golden on this assumption.

How’s that for the fastest turn around I’ve ever had

The reason is that when jay speaks everyone follows. Jay is like Thanos. The plan I had was gone at that point.

But the logic made sense. I think that it can be infuriating when civs follow jay blindly because he’s blunt and posts a lot of driving throughlines, but if the logic makes sense, then it’s not a blind following. I mean, maybe some people did. I dunno, I don’t wanna have to review everything I missed d1-N1, but y’all are making it hard :/