Easter Mafia [GAME OVER]

[wolbre04]

mafia would be so easy if we all agreed never to lie to eachother

Agreed

Did I scare you a little bit in the start of the game? I need the boost.

Let’s save these sort of questions for my memoirs, but if you wanna know who my teammate is, AMA

Is Marmot your teammate
AMA means ask me anything
Or American music awards

[ColinIsCool]

Yeah, Marmot’s my teammate.

[Marmot]

Yeah, Marmot’s my teammate.

That would be amazing. Kudos to the real Keith for staying quiet and making us do this foolish dance.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Colin and Quin

[mention]Marmot[/mention], I still want you to finish your own analysis. Mine isn't better or more correct just because it's first.

How come you voted for him?

I mean we're literally still on the first page

This little exchange referred to Quin's initial vote for nova.

Lap, why Quin?

YEAH WHY

Okay.

It’s when Jay stares into your soul and sees you for who you really are. When he told me who I really was, I had to stop playing Mafia for five years, I was so shook.

Too bad gingers like me don't have souls. If all I had to do to earn his trust was to let him fish around in there a bit we'd be done already.

Jokes.

If I’m a bunny, nutella is my scummate.

i'll be honest i haven't got a trucking clue what this expression means even after reading it 73 times

Okay.

Quin reads Colin good GTH on Day 3.

sorry all i'd do more but suddenly sick as a sig dog who still has a mountain of work to do

if someone could link me to some stuff about colin i'd appreciate it

*plugs nose*

I am particularly interested in Dizzy and Colin. They're the most difficult cases to sort given my own preconceptions and also the fact that my own content plays a large role in what I compiled. A less biased perspective would be super.

I had a similar experience when I ISOed Dyslexicon earlier today -- I was expecting them to look mostly town but I came out of it with pretty much no solid reason to town read them (and not much solid reason to scum read them to be fair, but there is a little bit that points me in that direction, including the Gladys stuff).

If you presently had to compile a POE pool of four, who would it be?

You too, Quin, please.

Colin
Charlie
Dizzy
lapluie (she's gonna have an aneurism at this point)

Colin makes the 4-player POE on Day 4 (before the claims).

Colin is bad and 3J is his teammate.

nah colin is bad guys just wait

Quin's handling of the claims crisis was something I viewed with suspicion in real-time, and it was one reason I briefly moved my vote to him before trying to keep the tie broken between Marmot/Colin. He expressed total confidence in two things which I don't think should have been confident matters for any civilian:

1) Marmot is good
2) Colin is bad

Perhaps Quin was right, and if so his intuition can be praised. I didn't care for this though, and I still think it looks like a player positioning himself to land on the right side of history more than a player sorting out reads and arriving at conclusions. Look at how literally everybody else handled that nonsense -- indecision, frantic questioning and deliberation, and a total absence of confidence. Quin was the exception.

~~~

How come you voted for him?

I mean we're literally still on the first page

What a scumslip.

Quin and nova feels like a genuine argument, but I am waiting for the day that two scum start the game by immediately teeing off on each other as literally their first contribution to the thread.

There's some setup potential here, i.e. tacking nova onto Quin erroneously. Mostly though it's just saying shit for the sake of it.

Colin, do you have any reads?

I like Kyle. Quin reminds me of his play in AG but he was 3p who eventually aligned scum there so ... I’m not sure what that would be. I’m wary of lurkers by default.

MP asked Colin for reads. He gave distinctly positive marks to Kyle, and then this muddy mess about Quin.

I really am not buying that Jay is scum right now, he looks like every town Jay I’ve ever seen, so I have to ask myself why people’s votes are on him, including Quin who it looks like just did some backing down.

Colin specifically named Quin when he was giving people crap for voting for me.

Quin is in the Against Pollution tier of Colin's Day 2 rainbow (the second-lowest tier).

Oh and I forgot Quin ... Quin is pretty inscrutable to me and I don't like that.

Colin had said a good amount about Quin by this point, so "inscrutable" is eh.

I'm considering lynching Quin. His only sign of life today was to freak the hell out about some Dizzy interpretation of his own posts. I don't see evidence that this guy gives a crap about the hunt.

I don’t feel great about him either, or that he’s staying away from two wagons that both seem reasonable.

Colin gave a light nudge forward when I voiced interest in a Quin lynch on Day 2.

I never made up my mind on Quin, so I will ISO him right now REAL quick.

Well that didn't take long.

Quin's playstyle is irreverent and he bucks direct questions, but I think he does that even when town. He really doesn't seem to care what people think of him to an extent, yet there does seem to be a marked drop-off in posting since Choutas' death. That could be laying low, and it is conceivable that he bussed Choutas to save face. The question is, then, is it more likely for wolbre to have casually placed a distancing vote and come back later to find it gone awry, or for Quin to bus a tied teammate and try to save face for the rest of the game?

(not a rhetorical question. please think about it and quickly)

Another question: is Quin the type to lay low like that when he's scum?

If Quin would bus a player as scum, would he also do what he just did as another mindgame?

As the deadline approached, Colin looked deeper into Quin and then turned it into 20 Questions. The original intent was to make up his mind, and he didn't do that. His eventual vote went to wolbre, who was lynched.

Aaaaand my aunt will be here very shortly, so, I don't have time to do more. If I die plz get a scum for me.

GTH reads (not ISO informed)

Marmot — sketched out by Choutas vote, do not like that he's more active than I remember town Marmot being, along lines with MP
nutella — yeah, OK
Quin — his resurgence last night felt genuine to me, but I have such a hard time getting a read on this guy. leaning true neutral to town but it could really be anywhere
Scotty — didn't like his latest line of argument against me, hard reading him too, but I would put him slightly above Quin for now because he looks like his AG play

Y'all should give me a four-name POE pool.

Marmot
Eloh
MP
Quin

Quin makes the POE club on Day 3.

You can access my ISO for concerns toward MP, but I think he may be suffocating the thread with lots of content (think dunya in FE) or a wide variety of reads and I think there is some opportunism there (last page for example — what did tying Marmot and Eloh actually accomplish?)

Quin is more or less there by default. I didn’t feel good putting nutella there and I’m still unsure what to think about his behavior when he came so close to a lynch.

By default.

~~~~~

Conclusion

This is a relationship I don't struggle to see. Quin doesn't look great. Indeed, as I sit here attempting to provide myself with a counterargument, I am having difficulty formulating one. I want this to be discussed with thoroughness though, and again I hope Marmot (and others too) make this same effort. You may draw different conclusions with your eyes on the posts.

[Marmot]

Aight I will without reading yours.

[Scotty]

Ima look at Dys and Colin progression:

DAY 1

[VOTE: Colin
] aubergine
Even though he's cool and it doesn't matter right now.

A vote off both prevailing wagons. To his own admission, this vote doesn’t matter, so it’s just an errant vote based on an earlier post where he is “looking sternly” at Colin.

DAY 2:

I don’t quite understand the jump for Colin into civ territory and it looks like neither do you. Do you have a better idea of how that jumped?

And lol I’m “meh compared to last game”

I could be convinced that dys only had choutas on his belt pouch and not on his back because he suspected Colin more, and I could be convinced that that side eye to choutas was a slight distance in the case of this lynch happening as it did. But I’m in the camp that dys is good right now. Just curious of how hisnread of Colin has changed

Ima look at Colin next

In terms of suspicion, I thought Choutas was more suspicious by a good margin actually. But he was already getting lynched at that point. I focused my energy into a suspect that didn't have a lot of attention at him at the time. It's rather typical of me. Try to poke the potential scum overlooked if I can. Even if I exaggerated some of my concerns with Colins a bit to see how I felt, I still see a lot of stuff that points to town for him, and his tone is good, so it's more likely he's town is what I think right now. In terms of post lynch Colin had a post where he explicitly said he thught Choutas was not the best lynch target when it was clear Choutas was most likely the lynch. It would be a bit weird if they were teamed to say that. Does this make sense?

Now I remember touching on this post at the time and finding it a bit odd. But now knowing Colin’s alignment, it’s even more odd

1) ‘Dys felt the need to exaggerate her concerns to see how she felt.’

Taht mkaes as mcuh snese as tihs snetnece
Like I have no idea what that means. It reads to me like Charlie Brown womp womping followed by ‘and that’s the reason why I voted him, Thank you for listening’

2) Little detailed words that come to a broad conclusion to make Colin seem town

“A lot of stuff that points to town” “his tone is good” = more likely he’s town
‘He defended choutas when it was clear choutas was going to be lynched’ = would be weird for teammates to say that.

Vagueries in the first conclusion, and misstated facts in the second. From what I read back, choutas was still a hanging chad (hiiiii GMan) and was not a done deal. Colin defended him (which he denied, btw) All in all, the bolstering of Colin’s cred here is lackluster at best

3) “in terms of post lynch” is followed by an example of something Colin said Pre-lynch. This is semantics, but also doesnt make sense.

Moving on..

Oh, I was speed tone reading ISO thingy Wolbre and Colin in the Ancient Greece game.

I think Wolbre is town, just from tone. I don't feel like explaining this more or betting on it. But it would be really nice if he could do some active scum hunting, cause he hasn't done much as far as I'm concerned (other than being sassy and showing a good gif game), and I know he's capable, so... awaiting magical results.

Colin seemed like Colin, but less active in that other game. Didn't get a whole lot out of that.

More vagueries that basically lead to nothing. If Colin seemed like Colin in the game he was bad in, are you saying he is bad in this one?
My grandpa once told me a story of that time he stepped on a caterpillar by accident. It was a sunny day.

NIGHT 2:

Being the generous type that I am, I'll just say Jimmeey, Kyle, MP and Colin for town.

Colin is one of the 4 town reads Dys gives. Why? Who knows.

[VOTE: Elo] aubergine

I think her buddy Colin saved her yesterday and my suspicion hasn’t abated for her, so...one of them

Will take a look at voting patterns more tomorrow

I would avoid Quin altogether. I don’t think he’s bad unlesssssss he is the white bunny who can’t be lynched. That’s the only reason I would see for him to self vote at that point (I don’t remember how many votes he had in my reread)

True story, I didn't even realize there was a scum role that couldn't be lynched. How does that even work if they have the most votes? Will we just know they are scum and they'll hang around in thread and post pictures of doges? Lol, too funny.

For someone that has been on top of the math of how many mislynches we have until lylo, I’m sorta surprised you would have overlooked one of only 3 power roles in the game. This reads as someone that is postulating about nothing. Could be a genuine read, but it’s hard for me to buy it like I said when she’s already looking towards the endgame.

DAY 3:

I think I'm back at Marmot, Epi and maybe Eloh as suspects. Quin is ugh.

Jimmeey, MP and Colin seems town. Scotty aslo seems town, though I haven't really been around at the same time with him so don't have a great feeling either way.

If I'm Gladys Campbell I got a negative result, which is unhelpful since there are more non-dentists than dentists left.

More townreading Colin.

Also including a sad Gladys claim where she doesn’t even list the target.

Scotty, I'm interested to hear your lapluie/Colin theory now. I took a look at lapluie's FE game. : p
I mean, GTH I'd say she's town here, but her tone was not all that markably different from what I remember her town game to be.

There was no lapluie/Colin theory, and I’m not sure if she made this up on purpose or not to invalidate my initial case on Colin or what.

i guess it's a way of saying you trust someone very highly, and also i guess multiple people saying it provide cover for the real gladys but just like... why and how did this start how did it become a thing?!? was this a thing in another game?

It's common in games with cop-like roles on certain other sites.

But that was a completely closed set up where she chose a gambit because it was basically Mafia U Gambit, so I don’t see a distinctive difference. She still had time constraints and was behind in both games (and said she felt defeated and behind in our scum chat, since I can talk about that now). I don’t think it’s alignment indicative, but I also don’t see the same difference here in games as you do

I will have to look this up now.

Huh? I have no theory there. Why would you think thT? I read lap as good right now

I sweat I saw you accuse lapluie and Collin as teammates, but I have been known to make things up in my mind I guess.

It doesn’t logically fall apart. I am saying that if one of the people claiming Gladys Campbell checks is doing so dishonestly (neither for truth nor for cover), independent of other thread data, then you have that look. I don’t understand why you would say you checked a non-dentist without saying who.

I don’t think the kills have your prints, so I am considering that. You’re not someone I want to lynch today. You’re a backburner concern.

I think nutella has looked quite authentic since she joined us. I have no gripes. Her vote is misplaced, but I don’t think she’s handled it in a way that is troublesome.

It does fall apart, because you start with an "if". It's basically, if I'm scum, I'm scum. I don't understand you not understanding it. This role has one function, especially with the dentists dead. It can sort people into confirmed town and not confirmed town. The latter being worthless, as it's the same as what we all start with. So that's why I don't feel it's necessary to reveal, and again, I can talk more about this post game, but it isn't helpful now. It's basically a cop who only can confirm green results. When not having a green result, there's nothing to confirm. You not getting this actually gives me pause in regards to you. Even if what I said wasn't the case, why the quack would me not giving the name be any type of AI for me? You're probably right that I would do a cover thing if I was scum as well automatically when I saw you did it, cause I'm used to doing this. That makes it at worst NAI. And I don't think I should be all that hard to sort otherwise (but I'm biased etc).

It's funny, cause I had a twinge of paranoia for you not being paranoid of me at all earlier. But this just feels weird. Both this, and what you said regarding "someone defending me may engage in TMI" looks to me like plain unsound reasoning that I don't expect you engaging in. So me and Colin defended you from MP's accusations. What's the point of stating that someone defending you may engage in TMI? Like, duh, if any of us are scum, yeah we are. It says nothing. It just creates doubt. Either you think I'm town/scum/unsure (same for Colin) or you don't. It's like both these arguments boils down to "if this person doing this thing is scum, then they are not doing it honestly". No shit, Sherlock.

Btw, I defended you from MP's accusations because I haven't felt disconnected to your behavior this game (apart from what's above now). And I don't know you as a player who would bus a teammate D1 like that. But maybe this is an exception. I don't know.

About Nutella - aight.

Hey guys I'm a civ

<3

Yeah, i guess so

I think I’m just dumb but I don’t understand this quote either. She’s really selling her defending of JJJ while also...I dunno. I’m just left confused in this argument. It might just be too late for me to take it in right now

I think Colin is town now. Lalala

Oh, I hadn’t noticed

DAY 4:

I haven't read Jimmeey's cases yet. I will take time to respond to mine.

I think Nut comes across very good in interaction with Epi. Reading her town now. So thanks.
I actually think a lot of players comes across better. Epi and Jimmeeey at least. Though Epi's posts are still frustrating as fuck to read.
Scotty and Quin are both very much on the leaning town side in my mind. When I think about it I guess that is mostly intuition/tone, especially for Scotty.

I could find a reason to vote lapluie, Marmot or Colin. Colin maybe least of all those.

[insert undefined reason <but not a very strong reason, whatever it is>]

Oh cool. Lapluie was either Gladys or scum to me for how she reacted to Jimmey cover of Colin. If Marmot claimed (didn't see it) this is pretty good. Lapluie didn't outright claim, but I can see the truth.

I think I want Epi to die the most actually.

She missed marmot’s claim, conveniently. And she’s here discounting lap.

I feel Jimmeeey's energy from the latest pages where things is happening is a town energy. It's excitement, I think.

I will go an extra round on Quin and Scotty, I think. I know I'm town, so unless scum is exactly Colin and Charlie, there has to be someone I'm not getting. And I don't particularly think it's Nut or Jimmey at this point in that case.

What is Colin doing though?

Like, I feel Colin is me in that game where I got cursed and couldn't tell what was happening. Like, he talks in riddles.

None of these do anything to push an opinion through. I can’t tell if she actually suspects Colin. The 2nd one even sounds like she’s elbowing him awkwardly

3 hours later:

Has anyone done a Colin/Charlie interaction analysis?

I could see Charlie being low effort and blah because of the first lynch I guess.

[VOTE: Colin] aubergine

To be with the cool kids.

At this point, I recall Colin already having like 4-5 votes and was already in process of digging his own grave, so this vote isn’t something that gives dys any civ credit. It makes her appear like she’s coming down hard on him though.

Good. Now it's 100% certain that either Marmot or Colin is mafia.

A win for me! 2/3 start reads. I should never let my reads progress in games. Fucks everything up.

...patting herself on the back here, but it’s like when my mom shouts answers at the screen while watching jeopardy and when she’s wrong, exclaiming “oh, I knew that, that’s what I was gonna say!”

Colin, I don't think it would take Marmot much thought to understand you are Keith. You didn't hide well. : p

I believe Colin over Marmot. He immediately reacted negatively to the claim.

Also, I can read Marmot souls. I told you all.
[VOTE:
Marmot] aubergine

But anyway, let’s all jump on marmot because Colin is probably good tho guys

Dys then lays out 2 log iso comparing Charlie and marmot interactions, but neglects to lay out a Colin analysis like she suggests to JJJ earlier in the day

i have literally never been so offended

i skimmed the suspicion of me. i'll go back and groin punch all of it individually. brb.

Don't bother. Find Marmot (Colin? Nah)'s teammate.

As we got up to the end of the lynch, dys had a firm belief that Colin was good and was fighting hard to help along the Marmot train. Granted, I agree that marmot looked bad too, but dys was overly zealous in pushing him.

She did make one post outlining that it may be more strategic to do an off lynch to avoid it, which is plus points in my opinion, but it doesn’t make up for the rest of the defense of Colin. I don’t think the partner would have wanted Colin dead today, especially with a juicy doctor up for grabs.

I don’t know what dys’s baddie game looks like, but from first impressions, I think it’s a good alignment look. The question here is: would dys have defended Colin so hard , knowing he would be not lynched?

Will do Quin when I get some downtime later today

[Marmot]

ColinIsCool and Quin

How come you voted for him?

I mean we're literally still on the first page

What a scumslip.

prolonged fart sound

This is something I would say, so I don't really care. Next.

Quin and nova feels like a genuine argument, but I am waiting for the day that two scum start the game by immediately teeing off on each other as literally their first contribution to the thread.

This is an exaggeration, Quin and nova were not teeing off on each other.

Lap, why Quin?

Colin invited lap to come play the game, then asked why she voted Quin. Ok.

Colin, do you have any reads?

I like Kyle. Quin reminds me of his play in AG but he was 3p who eventually aligned scum there so ... I’m not sure what that would be. I’m wary of lurkers by default.

Quite that ambivalent read on Quin after previously calling him town.

I really am not buying that Jay is scum right now, he looks like every town Jay I’ve ever seen, so I have to ask myself why people’s votes are on him, including Quin who it looks like just did some backing down.

Vague mention of Quin's vote on Jimmy.

The Best Ever Death Metal Band Out of Denton:
ColinIsCool

Pale Green Things:
JaggedJimmyJay
Dizzy (+ town)
Kylemii
Charlie Blackmon
Scotty (+ town)

Maybe Sprout Wings:
TheFloyd

Against Pollution:
Marmot (- town)
MP (- town)
Elohcin
Quin (- town)

Damn These Vampires:
wolbre (- town)
lapluie

(+ town) indicates they've gone up in my eyes recently
(- town) indicates they've given me cause to downgrade them
I tried to avoid giving neutral reads on everybody who has posted so a lot of these are not based on any master theories, just where I'm at.

Day 2 rainbow from Colin. Quin has dropped in his eyes, though not much chatter about him to this point.

Oh and I forgot Quin ... Quin is pretty inscrutable to me and I don't like that.

Well here's why Quin dropped in the rainbow, for being inscrutable. Kinda lame.

I'm considering lynching Quin. His only sign of life today was to freak the hell out about some Dizzy interpretation of his own posts. I don't see evidence that this guy gives a crap about the hunt.

I don’t feel great about him either, or that he’s staying away from two wagons that both seem reasonable.

Considers voting for Quin with Jay. A reasonable thing to do regardless of Quin's alignment.

I never made up my mind on Quin, so I will ISO him right now REAL quick.

Well that didn't take long.

Quin's playstyle is irreverent and he bucks direct questions, but I think he does that even when town. He really doesn't seem to care what people think of him to an extent, yet there does seem to be a marked drop-off in posting since Choutas' death. That could be laying low, and it is conceivable that he bussed Choutas to save face. The question is, then, is it more likely for wolbre to have casually placed a distancing vote and come back later to find it gone awry, or for Quin to bus a tied teammate and try to save face for the rest of the game?

(not a rhetorical question. please think about it and quickly)

Another question: is Quin the type to lay low like that when he's scum?

After a 10 minute iso, I'm not sure where Colin got this knowledge of Quin's town meta though.

If Quin would bus a player as scum, would he also do what he just did as another mindgame?

I have no fucking clue what to think right now.

(re: Quin)

Here are a couple of Colin's responses to Quin's self-vote on Day 2. They seem legitimate for a scum to have, watching another player engage in WIFOM and having no idea what the fuck to do.

Aaaaand my aunt will be here very shortly, so, I don't have time to do more. If I die plz get a scum for me.

GTH reads (not ISO informed)

Marmot — sketched out by Choutas vote, do not like that he's more active than I remember town Marmot being, along lines with MP
nutella — yeah, OK
Quin — his resurgence last night felt genuine to me, but I have such a hard time getting a read on this guy. leaning true neutral to town but it could really be anywhere
Scotty — didn't like his latest line of argument against me, hard reading him too, but I would put him slightly above Quin for now because he looks like his AG play

GTH read on Quin, his resurgence felt genuine, but still lacking a read. Possible teammate-influenced read.

mods vs non-mods on the poll basically

If this is a mislynch the proletariat will revolt

Banter

Y'all should give me a four-name POE pool.

Marmot
Eloh
MP
Quin

PoE list, which includes Quin.

You can access my ISO for concerns toward MP, but I think he may be suffocating the thread with lots of content (think dunya in FE) or a wide variety of reads and I think there is some opportunism there (last page for example — what did tying Marmot and Eloh actually accomplish?)

Quin is more or less there by default. I didn’t feel good putting nutella there and I’m still unsure what to think about his behavior when he came so close to a lynch.

Explains why Quin is in the PoE, by default. Then a confusing sentence follows where he talks about nutella, but I think he's talking about Quin. Still uncertain of his read on Quin. This is still on Day 3 before Colin had taken any heat.

You guys really don’t want to do this. Idk what else I can say in the time left but if I missed anything please requote it

Could you share a quick rainbow list pls

Feel good about Jay, Scotty, Charlie, and better about you with the claim. Nutella is townish but not as confident. My POE for Marmot’s teammate would be Dizzy, Quin

Aaaaaand that's it. Quin in the PoE again on Day 4, 6 minutes before EoD and Colin's lynchfail.


~~~~~

How come you voted for him?

I mean we're literally still on the first page

I talked about this already. An early interaction that quickly fizzled, not like the nova/Jay or the Eloh/Jay interactions.

It’s when Jay stares into your soul and sees you for who you really are. When he told me who I really was, I had to stop playing Mafia for five years, I was so shook.

Too bad gingers like me don't have souls. If all I had to do to earn his trust was to let him fish around in there a bit we'd be done already.

Banter, sorta.

If I’m a bunny, nutella is my scummate.

i'll be honest i haven't got a trucking clue what this expression means even after reading it 73 times

Doesn't understand Colin.

Quin, reads list?

GTH, sure.

colin - good
dizzy - bad
eloh - good
epi - good
3j - bad
lap - bad
MP - good
marmot - good
nutella - good
scotty - good

GTH reads Colin bad.

Y'all should give me a four-name POE pool.

Eloh
MP
Dizzy
Epi

Whaddya think of Colin?

He is a person that exists and suspects me for some reason.

Day 3, Jay asks about Colin, Quin has nothing of substance to say.

sorry all i'd do more but suddenly sick as a sig dog who still has a mountain of work to do

if someone could link me to some stuff about colin i'd appreciate it

Quin is sick and asks for links to Colin stuff. Fine.

I am particularly interested in Dizzy and Colin. They're the most difficult cases to sort given my own preconceptions and also the fact that my own content plays a large role in what I compiled. A less biased perspective would be super.

I had a similar experience when I ISOed Dyslexicon earlier today -- I was expecting them to look mostly town but I came out of it with pretty much no solid reason to town read them (and not much solid reason to scum read them to be fair, but there is a little bit that points me in that direction, including the Gladys stuff).

If you presently had to compile a POE pool of four, who would it be?

You too, Quin, please.

Colin
Charlie
Dizzy
lapluie (she's gonna have an aneurism at this point)

Colin ended up in the PoE. I don't see any obvious reason for this to happen at this point. Quin did ISO me around this time, and flipped his read of me from scum to obvious town. But I found no comment of Colin, but rather a mysterious shift from town to PoE candidate.

Colin did have a few votes at the time, but a town Quin would give more effort to determine a reason.

Colin is bad and 3J is his teammate.

After the lynch all went down, I disagree strongly with this possibility.

nah colin is bad guys just wait

remember that time colin died but didn't make any legacy posts

My immediate thoughts after the flips is that the most likely scum is Quin. He seemed sure Colin was scum and seemed to have no real emotion or agony over this. I did suspect Jimmeey for being teamed with Marmot (cause I thought Marmot was the scum >_>). In some respect Quin's vote on Colin and the insisting of it being Colin even after the timer was out seems almost too obvious. The way both Colin and Marmot acted made me think we had the wrong lynch. Maybe that was conf bias on my end. I think Jimmeey, Nut and Scotty has a lot going for them to be town. Still I find myself doubting especially Jimmeey and Nut on certain points, and I almost feel bad, cause at least one is town and not unlikely both, so is it worth the doubt? I have more thoughts here that will go more into later. I think my suspicion on Jimmey is rather tinfoily.

---

D5 - 6 town vs 2 scum = 2 chances to hit scum.

It was pretty damn obvious he was bad once the poll ended. Colin knows what a legacy post is. How many did we get? None. How many times did Colin pretend not to know what a legacy post was? One.

Some stuff about Colin at the end.

I did a similar sort of thing as mafia one time that Quin did here. In Mortal Kombat, I pushed for a Simon lynch to save nutella. Both of them were teammates, but nutella was a seemer. Unfortunately, they were both lynched that day (curse you [mention]Charlie Blackmon[/mention]), ringing the death knoll for me. But still, confirming that players are civ or mafia so close to the deadline? Quin hadn't taken the effort to read back through Colin, or at least not explicitly so. This is a case of TMI.




Addendum:

Colin's Quin interactions look decent to slightly scummy. Quin's interactions with Colin look worse. They don't exist for an extended period of time, and when they did (aside from the end of Day 4), they were non-committal.

If Quin is Nolan Arenado, then Colin is Carlos Gonzalez, teammates.

[Marmot]

There was as time when I considered Quin was the cop person, but that idea was quickly dismissed, especially after seeing Quin's handling of lap.

And we know for a fact that Quin's not a dentist, so that increases his odds of being a bunny a bit more.

[Scotty]

[mention]JaggedJimmyJay[/mention] I see our conclusions on dizzy differ, and i want you on my kickball team. Do you think her defending of Colin to the bitter end there is a better look if she is civ?

[Marmot]

i have literally never been so offended

i skimmed the suspicion of me. i'll go back and groin punch all of it individually. brb.

And again, this post here.

I still don't understand how Quin could skim the recent events, and come away with the most important thing to talk about was any suspicion of him. Colin and I had each claimed at this point. Lapluie had claimed. The thread conversation was centered around these things. Quin was essentially an afterthought.

The frustration and need to groinpunch someone? Ok. I can completely understand this sort of desire if one's teammate is taking votes, but this post is a strikeout looking.

[Marmot]

Fun stat.

This game - 190.6 posts per player
U-Pick Mafia - 175.42 posts per player


Take that [mention]MacDougall[/mention].

[JaggedJimmyJay]

@JaggedJimmyJay I see our conclusions on dizzy differ, and i want you on my kickball team. Do you think her defending of Colin to the bitter end there is a better look if she is civ?

I think our interpretations of events are a bit different, because I don't quite see Dizzy "defending" Colin as much as "trusting Marmot less than Colin". I would prefer for Dizzy to answer to your assertions before I say more though.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

The most important similarly between our assessments of Quin, Marmot, is the perception that he was TMIing the sequence at the end of Day 4.

[Marmot]

The most important similarly between our assessments of Quin, Marmot, is the perception that he was TMIing the sequence at the end of Day 4.

Agreed. And the progression to a scumread on Colin doesn't look good.

The one thing that sucks for Quin is that he wasn't around when the claims happened. You, Dizzy, nutella, lapluie, and Scotty had the fortune of being around most of the time, and specifially, you were all around before Colin roleclaimed.

Charlie might not have been around for those events, but he broke the rules and roleclaimed. So he's town.


So Quin was already sort of the odd man out, even if he played that situation perfectly.

[Dyslexicon]

Colin and Charlie Blackmon, starting center fielder for the Colorado Rockies

I already did this. Tack on Epi's vote for Colin just now and there you go. I give Epignosis credit for his suspicion that Caerbannog was one of the two to claim, because my intuition was the opposite. It was too late in the phase to try to lynch someone else with any coordination (we hardly managed as it was), but it's a nice look that he suggested it anyway.

+509 points for pushin the last vote across
-31 points for coming to a conclusion 10 minutes before EoD that one of them was unlynchable.

I don’t find it that suspicious, but more ‘jenkies’ that he came to that conclusion. @Charlie Blackmon how did you come to that conclusion, ¡claro que si!

Isn't Charlie out of the PoE for obvious reasons?

[Dyslexicon]

Jay, why shouldn't I think you're Colin's teammate?

I read his entire movement at the EoD and even earlier as organic, and don’t think he would have been so malleable if he were bad. He also had a perfect opportunity to just let Marmot take the brunt after I found Marmot was covering for the fucking cop, but instead picked up on colin’s disjointed past and started the train back.

Like, come on. JJJ ain’t bad, nut

I did not read organitc to you? Is it because I ended up on Marmot?

[Dyslexicon]

Conclusion

This is a relationship I don't struggle to see. Quin doesn't look great. Indeed, as I sit here attempting to provide myself with a counterargument, I am having difficulty formulating one. I want this to be discussed with thoroughness though, and again I hope Marmot (and others too) make this same effort. You may draw different conclusions with your eyes on the posts.

I'll try do this myself at a point, but yeah, it's probably just Quin. Which would make my "silly" defending the NK action not so silly. And OMG, the coffee tell is the truth of mafia. If I had remembered the coffee thing in the moment I might've decided for Colin instead, not even a joke.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I don't know if Charlie is out for obvious reasons, but what I do know is that I will not be discussing anything about Charlie beyond his actions and relationship with dead mafia members.

[ColinIsCool]

I don’t even drink coffee.

[Dyslexicon]

Oh wow, I reeeeally dislike that runthrough on me fro Scotty. o.o

[Dyslexicon]

I don’t even drink coffee.

You see, liez, liza minelli.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Oh wow, I reeeeally dislike that runthrough on me fro Scotty. o.o

Why?

[dunya]

Fun stat.

This game - 190.6 posts per player
U-Pick Mafia - 175.42 posts per player


Take that MacDougall.

because everyone is friggin silenced all the time

[Marmot]

Who wants some more colored chrono-votes?


DAY 1

Spoiler: show

Choutas
6
wolbre04 (3), JaggedJimmyJay (6), Quin (8), Kylemii (9), M Plus 7 (12), Marmot (13)

Dyslexicon
2
Elohcin (4), Charlie Blackmon (7)

JaggedJimmyJay
1
novaselinever (1)

TheFloyd73/nutella
1
Scotty (2)

lapluie
1
ColinIsCool (5)

Elohcin
1
lapluie (10)

ColinIsCool
1
Dyslexicon (11)



No Vote
2
Choutas, TheFloyd73/nutella

DAY 2

Spoiler: show

wolbre04
6
Elohcin (1), ColinIsCool (3), Dyslexicon (4), Charlie Blackmon (5), JaggedJimmyJay (9), Kylemii (10)

Elohcin
3
Scotty (2), Quin (11), wolbre04 (12)

Quin
3
M Plus 7 (6), Marmot (7), lapluie (8)



No Vote
1
TheFloyd73/nutella

DAY 3

Spoiler: show

Elohcin
7
Marmot (1), Charlie Blackmon (2), nutella (5), JaggedJimmyJay (7), M Plus 7 (9), Quin (10), Dyslexicon (11)

Marmot
4
Scotty (3), lapluie (4), ColinIsCool (6), Elohcin (8)

DAY 4

Spoiler: show

ColinIsCool
6
nutella (3), Marmot (4), lapluie (6) Quin (7), Charlie Blackmon (8), JaggedJimmyJay (9)

Marmot
3
ColinIsCool (1), Scotty (2), Dyslexicon (5)

[Marmot]

Fun stat.

This game - 190.6 posts per player
U-Pick Mafia - 175.42 posts per player


Take that MacDougall.

because everyone is friggin silenced all the time

Keep on posting over here, you're boosting our stats. :3

[ColinIsCool]

By the way, all of you were baffled by my “possible worlds” reference so I recommend checking out this Stanford primer if you’d like to get your hands dirty with some metaphysics.

[Marmot]

I did my best to compile the Day 4 votes in order, but the end of the day was a bit of a clusterfuck, so I might be wrong.

[dunya]

Fun stat.

This game - 190.6 posts per player
U-Pick Mafia - 175.42 posts per player


Take that MacDougall.

because everyone is friggin silenced all the time

Keep on posting over here, you're boosting our stats. :3

at least I'm welcome here. I'll be modkilled if I post in U-Pick

[Marmot]

How ironic that your post was edited.

[Dyslexicon]

A vote off both prevailing wagons. To his own admission, this vote doesn’t matter, so it’s just an errant vote based on an earlier post where he is “looking sternly” at Colin.

Which again was based on mafia-meta reasoning and that Colin had drawn little attention. See my answer to Jimmeey.

DAY 2:

Now I remember touching on this post at the time and finding it a bit odd. But now knowing Colin’s alignment, it’s even more odd

1) ‘Dys felt the need to exaggerate her concerns to see how she felt.’

Taht mkaes as mcuh snese as tihs snetnece
Like I have no idea what that means. It reads to me like Charlie Brown womp womping followed by ‘and that’s the reason why I voted him, Thank you for listening’

I fully do this. I try voting someone and try engaging someone to see how i feel about it in real time. It|s more messy inside my head than in thread. I don't think that should be weird at all. I also completely make up suspicions sometimes to see where it leads.

2) Little detailed words that come to a broad conclusion to make Colin seem town

“A lot of stuff that points to town” “his tone is good” = more likely he’s town
‘He defended choutas when it was clear choutas was going to be lynched’ = would be weird for teammates to say that.

Vagueries in the first conclusion, and misstated facts in the second. From what I read back, choutas was still a hanging chad (hiiiii GMan) and was not a done deal. Colin defended him (which he denied, btw) All in all, the bolstering of Colin’s cred here is lackluster at best

This is not how I read chouta lynch when I was posting around day end. I thought it was pretty much a done deal that he was lynched. And after the lynch I felt Marmot and MP's treatment looked really bad and that Colin's looked good. That's just how I read it.

3) “in terms of post lynch” is followed by an example of something Colin said Pre-lynch. This is semantics, but also doesnt make sense.

Dafuq. Because I could only assess those posts meaningfully after I knew the result of the lynch.

Moving on..

More vagueries that basically lead to nothing. If Colin seemed like Colin in the game he was bad in, are you saying he is bad in this one?
My grandpa once told me a story of that time he stepped on a caterpillar by accident. It was a sunny day.

Why are you framing everything here so sarcastically and painting it with a stinky color. Shtap.
Also, my take away what that it wasn't more likely he was bad. He was quieter and that's pretty much it.

NIGHT 2:
Colin is one of the 4 town reads Dys gives. Why? Who knows.

I don't even know myself.

For someone that has been on top of the math of how many mislynches we have until lylo, I’m sorta surprised you would have overlooked one of only 3 power roles in the game. This reads as someone that is postulating about nothing. Could be a genuine read, but it’s hard for me to buy it like I said when she’s already looking towards the endgame.

First of all I've not "been on top of the math", I only started considering that D4. Why are you conflating this? I also don't need to spew out town slip bullshit like this if it isn't the case, wifom and all. I'm not the best internalizing rules and setups, never have been never will be.

DAY 3:
More townreading Colin.

Also including a sad Gladys claim where she doesn’t even list the target.

Why is it sad and what's you're qualm with it?

There was no lapluie/Colin theory, and I’m not sure if she made this up on purpose or not to invalidate my initial case on Colin or what.

Why would I feel compelled to make that up on purpose? I don't really remember your case on Colin at all now actually.

I think I’m just dumb but I don’t understand this quote either. She’s really selling her defending of JJJ while also...I dunno. I’m just left confused in this argument. It might just be too late for me to take it in right now

I was "selling" me objecting to MP's case because I thought MP had gone paranoid and it was not a good one from what I knew of Jimmey. I had actual reasons for this and they still hold up. Not going to accept that as a point of suspicion because Colin was engaging in TMI. If you want to look into this you should look into my reason for objecting to MP. I'm not talking about Colin's potential for TMI here. This is a rather dumb argument between me and Jimmeey. The only assessment needed is whether I was genuine or not.

I think Colin is town now. Lalala

Oh, I hadn’t noticed

Pretty sure this is me trying to feel good about the read. >_>

DAY 4:
She missed marmot’s claim, conveniently. And she’s here discounting lap.

What's "convenient" about that? I hadn't caught up, but realized things were happening.

None of these do anything to push an opinion through. I can’t tell if she actually suspects Colin. The 2nd one even sounds like she’s elbowing him awkwardly

Because Colin was acting really weird around the claim. Pretty sure I'm not the only one who got my brain mushed between Marmot and Colin from this point on.

3 hours later:
At this point, I recall Colin already having like 4-5 votes and was already in process of digging his own grave, so this vote isn’t something that gives dys any civ credit. It makes her appear like she’s coming down hard on him though.

Does it make me appear that I'm coming down hard on him? Why?

A win for me! 2/3 start reads. I should never let my reads progress in games. Fucks everything up.

...patting herself on the back here, but it’s like when my mom shouts answers at the screen while watching jeopardy and when she’s wrong, exclaiming “oh, I knew that, that’s what I was gonna say!” [/quote]
You're right (kind of). It's a total ego thing because I don't want to suck and I already beat myself up for lynching Wolbre this game instead of defending them. This is a total town tell for me btw. And nobody else would know, but Marmot and Colin specifically are the player's I've had the most internal gut off feelings from the entire game.

But anyway, let’s all jump on marmot because Colin is probably good tho guys

Dys then lays out 2 log iso comparing Charlie and marmot interactions, but neglects to lay out a Colin analysis like she suggests to JJJ earlier in the day

I forgot something? This is scummy how? A lot was happening at the time.

As we got up to the end of the lynch, dys had a firm belief that Colin was good and was fighting hard to help along the Marmot train. Granted, I agree that marmot looked bad too, but dys was overly zealous in pushing him.

She did make one post outlining that it may be more strategic to do an off lynch to avoid it, which is plus points in my opinion, but it doesn’t make up for the rest of the defense of Colin. I don’t think the partner would have wanted Colin dead today, especially with a juicy doctor up for grabs.

I don't know how you ever read my D4 as me being sure Colin was good and Marmot was bad. They were both terrible and felt terrible to me. Yeah, I decided on Marmot in the very end. I even specifically said "this is MY decision" and let everybody else do what they wanted. I also have no idea how you read that mess I was at the time as anything but genuine. I can't see it from the outside, but I don't think I can fake brain meltdown like that when I'm scum.

I don’t know what dys’s baddie game looks like, but from first impressions, I think it’s a good alignment look. The question here is: would dys have defended Colin so hard , knowing he would be not lynched?

I would have voted Colin D4 if we were teammates. I'm pretty sure about that. In a situation where it's 1 vs 1 claim standoff you are either on the "good" side or "bad" side, I'd take the "credit". I even have in one of my few scum games on this site. If you care, I was scum in a Heist called Currents and a Job that I think was Battlestar (someone correct me?) I also would not have a swing and a return early game on a teammate where basically the whole process is inside my head and I'm not able to explain it. Take that as you will. My questions to you are all genuine btw and I would appreciate it if you could answer them.

[Dyslexicon]

I find Scotty's case pretty gross actually. I don't recognize myself in the narrative he paints at all. Maybe I'm OMGUSing. Would appreciate opinions on this. Also will go through a Scotty ISO at some point.

[nutella]

Colin and Dizzy

Spoiler: show

Page 5-7

Maybe I used policy lynch incorrectly there, but it sounds like you're saying we should lynch people who haven't contributed at all as a Day 1 rule, Charlie.

Benefits would be not losing voices in a game that's having a tough time taking off and also, of course, there's nothing stopping a scum from just lurking at this point. Especially at this point, maybe.

What are your reads, hopes and dreams? At this point in the game you're reading more like a side commentator to me. And I've seen scum act that way before. I'm pointing fingers at you.

Pages 8-9

Yeah, having read the case against Jay, I don’t see anything I wouldn’t expect from his town behavior. I don’t see the case on Dizzy and I’d prefer not to vote Floyd, but between those two, if a replacement’s not happening I won’t lose sleep lynching someone not even in the thread.

Colini's posts reads like a scum player who wants to lynch the town player who deserves it the most.
^Someone talk to me about this.

When Dizzy was initially catching up with the game, he tossed some poop in Colin's direction. Both of these are extracted from larger multi-quoted posts.

What do you mean “deserves it the most”?

Being anti-town, not doing their job. Like, you're looking for town who can be reasonably blamed for getting lynched rather than looking for scum. Are you? ARE YOU???

Good eye, soldier.

Dizzy looked sternly at Colin on Day 1.

Well I mean ... you’re supposed to lynch anti-town players, aren’t you? That’s scum. So I guess I see what you’re saying but I find it pretty disagreeable as a stance.

What's your experience with mafia?

Dizzy asked Colin a few of these background check type questions.

[VOTE: Colin
] aubergine
Even though he's cool and it doesn't matter right now.

Then placed a vote.

Hey, engage with me all you want, I just think there are much better targets out there, and the fact that they're "easy" or whatever shouldn't stop us from considering them if they look scummy. Love that tiger stuff though!

This post does not ease my concerns. : p

I don't know you as a player, so it's hard for me to read you. I also am following the suspicions that makes sense to me, and that includes you now. I especially pursue this hunch cause nobody else is. Reading through you looked more controlled and aware than others. I think scum tends to look more like this than town. We'll see, I guess.

Dizzy didn't let go of this through Day 1, even as Choutas was lynched. I appreciate that Dizzy wasn't giving an inch in this conversation, and the above quote isn't the only example from this period.

On Night 1 Dizzy upgraded Colin to the light green tier, suggesting that the original suspicion was exaggerated. I'm not clear on why Colin deserved this position compared to the seven people who were placed below him in the red tier. Please expand on this, Dizzy.

Neutral chatter about the nova kill and wolbre.

I don’t quite understand the jump for Colin into civ territory and it looks like neither do you. Do you have a better idea of how that jumped?

And lol I’m “meh compared to last game”

I could be convinced that dys only had choutas on his belt pouch and not on his back because he suspected Colin more, and I could be convinced that that side eye to choutas was a slight distance in the case of this lynch happening as it did. But I’m in the camp that dys is good right now. Just curious of how hisnread of Colin has changed

Ima look at Colin next

In terms of suspicion, I thought Choutas was more suspicious by a good margin actually. But he was already getting lynched at that point. I focused my energy into a suspect that didn't have a lot of attention at him at the time. It's rather typical of me. Try to poke the potential scum overlooked if I can. Even if I exaggerated some of my concerns with Colins a bit to see how I felt, I still see a lot of stuff that points to town for him, and his tone is good, so it's more likely he's town is what I think right now. In terms of post lynch Colin had a post where he explicitly said he thught Choutas was not the best lynch target when it was clear Choutas was most likely the lynch. It would be a bit weird if they were teamed to say that. Does this make sense?

Dizzy expanded on his change of heart re: Colin at Scotty's request. The reasoning demands WIFOM, but it doesn't significantly bother me. I am more concerned that so many people were under Colin in the rainbow than I am about the color Colin was given.

~~~

Dizzy talked about Colin a shit load, so I am not going to discuss everything.

~~~

Being the generous type that I am, I'll just say Jimmeey, Kyle, MP and Colin for town.

Night 2 town read for Colin.

I think I'm back at Marmot, Epi and maybe Eloh as suspects. Quin is ugh.

Jimmeey, MP and Colin seems town. Scotty aslo seems town, though I haven't really been around at the same time with him so don't have a great feeling either way.

If I'm Gladys Campbell I got a negative result, which is unhelpful since there are more non-dentists than dentists left.

Reiterated on Day 3.

It's funny, cause I had a twinge of paranoia for you not being paranoid of me at all earlier. But this just feels weird. Both this, and what you said regarding "someone defending me may engage in TMI" looks to me like plain unsound reasoning that I don't expect you engaging in. So me and Colin defended you from MP's accusations. What's the point of stating that someone defending you may engage in TMI? Like, duh, if any of us are scum, yeah we are. It says nothing. It just creates doubt. Either you think I'm town/scum/unsure (same for Colin) or you don't. It's like both these arguments boils down to "if this person doing this thing is scum, then they are not doing it honestly". No shit, Sherlock.

Colin engaged in TMI. Did Dizzy do it too?

I think Colin is town now. Lalala

Lalala

I haven't read Jimmeey's cases yet. I will take time to respond to mine.

I think Nut comes across very good in interaction with Epi. Reading her town now. So thanks.
I actually think a lot of players comes across better. Epi and Jimmeeey at least. Though Epi's posts are still frustrating as fuck to read.
Scotty and Quin are both very much on the leaning town side in my mind. When I think about it I guess that is mostly intuition/tone, especially for Scotty.

I could find a reason to vote lapluie, Marmot or Colin. Colin maybe least of all those.

The honeymoon seems to be over on Day 4.

What? Why do people think I’m claiming Keith?

Gurl, you literally threw a brick wall of disbelief to Marmot's claim which was otherwise not disputed. And you wonder why people are prodding you to see if you are actually Keith and have definite knowledge? Gurl.

For the record: If anyone but Marmot is Keith they should definitely claim. If that was even a question.

Dizzy had a ton to say during the counterclaim saga, so I will try to limit my discussion to highlights. When Colin was incredulous about being associated with a counterclaim, Dizzy threw a brick at his face.

[VOTE: Colin] aubergine

To be with the cool kids.

This was a relatively late vote (I believe sixth) on the initial Colin wagon.

Colin, I don't think it would take Marmot much thought to understand you are Keith. You didn't hide well. : p

I believe Colin over Marmot. He immediately reacted negatively to the claim.

Also, I can read Marmot souls. I told you all.
[VOTE:
Marmot] aubergine

Dizzy moved back to Marmot after Colin officially counterclaimed. I can't blame 'em, I did the same thing.

Dizzy begins probing prior tallies for clues about teammates of Marmot. This isn't about Colin really, but I think it looks authentic.

I dislike Colin claiming and disappearing btw.

Ugh. Scum the lot of you.

At least he's getting ripped.

From this point, Dizzy was pretty negative in their assessment of both Marmot and Colin and swapped his vote both ways, which is easy to understand since both of them looked terrible. Dizzy elected to stay on Marmot in the end.

I think it’s Marmot. Final answer for me. You all do what you feel is right.

I couldn't fault Dizzy in the moment and I still don't. It was an extremely difficult choice.

Idk if I’m still allowed to post but I really hope you guys can pull through on this one. I’ll be watching

I won’t lose faith. Murp.

At this point the lynch was already finalized, but G-Man hadn't posted the results. I think it looks like Dizzy really does believe Colin will flip as Keith Shover.

~~~

On Day 1, Colin supported my suspicion of Dizzy.

I started playing around 10 or 11 years ago as a wee babe but I have played extremely inconsistently in that time. Dunno how many. I played on RYM in the old days with some of these folks. I used to want to be scum all the time but now I have a job and junk so it’s a lot harder to have fun that way.

Alright, thanks. So you have enough experience to know anti-town doesn't always equal scum. You voted Lapluie and said her behavior was not pro-town. Why not just say you think she's scum? This is why it looks like you're searching for town that it would make sense voting and it also reads like a guilty mindset.

I believe I did call lapluie scum? This feels like reaching tbh.

This feels indignant and unplanned, tbh.

Pale green things in Colin's Day 2 rainbow

Colin did an ISO on Dizzy, called a lot of their play "strange" or similar things, but still concluded "GOOD STUFF". That's odd.

On to finding the scum on Eloh's wagon then. It's not Dizzy.

If you think Marmot is town, why would scum necessarily be on Eloh's wagon? I've been thinking about this. So if Marmot is town, I don't think there would be much incentive for scum to mislynch Eloh over Marmot, quite the opposite. Eloh was not doing much or putting in much effort and not a hard mislynch (and unlikely to be in the future) imo. If Marmot is town, that is a more active presence and a "better mislynch" from a scum perspective. Obviously scum would want to vote either if their both town and it would depend on how they've already expressed suspicion. That said, I still think there's good chances Marmot is scum, in which case I'd say it's highly likely there's scum on Eloh's wagon. I guess I'm just wondering if you think there has to be scum on the wagon, or more so was thinking of doing voting analysis on the wagon to see if anything sticks out?

That’s all a pretty good point. If I had to guess I’d figure there’s scum on both, spreading themselves apart, but maybe that’s just my brain trying to get symmetry.

Colin informs us that the mafia are more likely to spread themselves between two prevailing wagons (in this case, Elohcin and Marmot). He can be believed or not, but I will try to remember to look into that. He's already shown a penchant for TMI.

Are you fucking kidding me

Can you please end my misery and tell me if you’re scum or not? I need to sleep.

It’s Marmot.

WIFOM burger about to served, but I think this looks decent for Dizzy. Colin was lynched at this point, but he still couldn't resist the opportunity to make Dizzy feel a little despair.

~~~~~

Conclusion

If I wanted to, I could pull a case against Dizzy out of this. There's a questionable progression from right to wrong to right to wrong through the course of the game. Still, I am not inclined to go there. It doesn't feel right, and I have an easier time seeing a Dizzy who is being an uncertain civilian and trying to sort a player out. I'll call this a slight net positive for Dizzy.

I wish I was one of those players who's like a dog with a bone. But I'm not. I'm a dog that had a bone once that he burried in the yard and now he forgot where he put it so he just barks. My initial suspicion of Colin was true and based on very overarching "what I know about the game mafia"-things. The language Colin used seemed to slip that he was outside of town. He also felt like an observer, which is more common for scum. These are pretty soft tells and I questioned how valid they were while engaging with Colin. Especially since I didn't know him, and I have a history of suspecting new players because they are unfamiliar with me. The reason I dropped it I think was because of how Colin acted around the choutas lynch. The rather apathetic "oh well" is something that in my experience is rather uncommon for scummates. Good on Colin for that reaction (imo). And I became way more interested in Marmot and also MP after that lynch. Sometimes I just more or less artificially decide that someone is town (or a different read) to try it on for size if that makes any sense. I wouldn't say my gut ever felt great about Colin (except the very last of D4 just because I had decided Marmot was the scum), but I didn't get the same suspicion after I decided that he probably just talked this way (coming across more distant (don't exactly know how to describe it)), which some players do. I also had read a game where he was scum and he was more careful and less active there I found. So all of that informed my thought process. But after the flip, all the little things that I reacted to throughout the game comes back and I'm disappointed that I dropped it because it's so typical me to do exactly that.

I don't think I could ever fake the state I was in at day end between Marmot and Colin. I was seriously riled up, especially since I had had the strongest gut suspicion towards both of these players throughout the game and I really wanted to get it right. I'm also sure that if I was scum with Colin I would go for the bussing when it was between the two of them anyway. If you can recall I did that with FZ. I also actually believed it was Marmot until I saw the flip (thought something about how the vote went down and teammate building made me have the feeling something was not right), but in the moment I thought it was Marmot. I don't know what else to say about that. All of my posts are genuine, and my mind goes many directions at once and sometimes I try things on more to try to get clearer myself. I don't think I'm all that good at translating what's going on in my head to the page. I hope this makes sense.

Dude yeah same. I think we had pretty similar experiences of yesterday and you ooze authenticity imo.

It's Quin. I'm sure of it now. Based on my pretty confident PoE of everyone else, plus his behavior around the lynch
/trying to get credit even though he knew his teammate wouldn't die.

Sorry Q, bussing just didn't work out for you in the end. Your Choutas looks kept you safe for a while but it's over now.

[Dyslexicon]

My two lynch choices would be Quin and Scotty. I don't even care if I'm wrong, though I don't think I am. Jimmey and Nut would deserve the win.

[Dyslexicon]

Not saying other|s aren't deserving of the win. Just saying I personally wouldn't be too upset losing to Nut or Jimmey at this point. More impressed.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Colin and Scotty

I had fun once and it was awful

The problem is if you have too much fun, when you want to get involved with something serious, no one takes you seriously.

In theory.

In reality, I just get too serious too fast and no one takes me seriously anyway.

2 fast 2 serious

Banter.

I’m just realizing how brilliant Marmot’s D1 tradition is. There is no expectation of him ever making a real stance this phase as town and it carries over into his scum game easily, freeing him of most things a scum might get trapped in that early. I’m not making a read here, just, kudos.

I’m all for good D1 traditions that don’t get you lynched D1, but this isn’t just a D1 tradition for him either. He will often self vote later too, and he guzzles WIFOM like he’s at an orchard tasting.

Marmot’s production is where we should see an alignment pop up

Chatter about Marmot.

Scotty ISO'd Colin on Day 2 and concluded that he looked bad for making a number of "safe" reads and also for defending Choutas. That argument about defending Choutas turned into an extended exchange between the two:

Core argument reiterated in caps lock
A cow painted purple is still a cow

Scotty gives Colin crap for casting too wide a net

[VOTE: Elo] aubergine

I think her buddy Colin saved her yesterday and my suspicion hasn’t abated for her, so...one of them

Will take a look at voting patterns more tomorrow

I would avoid Quin altogether. I don’t think he’s bad unlesssssss he is the white bunny who can’t be lynched. That’s the only reason I would see for him to self vote at that point (I don’t remember how many votes he had in my reread)

I don't care for this as much. If Colin saved Elohcin, then why aren't you voting for Colin, the one doing the saving? Elohcin is suspicious by association. It's at least a poor strategic decision.

You’re gonna have to flesh that tinfoil out a little bit, Scotty.

It’s wax paper, not tin foil.

I’ll get to it tomorrow but even still, why are you acting so surprised?

Why wouldn’t I be surprised...?

I’ve already called you out on things yesterday so it seems like you’re taking my accusation as if it’s out of the blue, when in reality I know you’re playing dumb because you responded to it

Scotty and Colin getting cranky

What makes Scotty town again? : p

For me it’s that he seems pretty similar to his town play in AG the more I see of it, but he’s going to have to flesh out some of these ideas he has and soon.

I’ve already said I think you look suspicious for how you subtly defended choutas on day 1 by proffering that there were better options while rolling your eyes and placing a vote there. You showed up to a friend’s house, and when he handed you a cold refreshing glass of Sunny D, you told him you’d drink it even though it tastes like cat urine

Scotty accuses Colin of being willing to drink Sunny D.

What makes Scotty town again? : p

For me it’s that he seems pretty similar to his town play in AG the more I see of it, but he’s going to have to flesh out some of these ideas he has and soon.

I’ve already said I think you look suspicious for how you subtly defended choutas on day 1 by proffering that there were better options while rolling your eyes and placing a vote there. You showed up to a friend’s house, and when he handed you a cold refreshing glass of Sunny D, you told him you’d drink it even though it tastes like cat urine

And I’ve already said that I didn’t defend Choutas. What time would you like us to repeat this exchange tomorrow?

That you can’t own up that you even softly defended him is beyond me. Like, it’s ok if you did defend him, everyone does that. But you’re so guarded about it

Who is your scummate

I think Scotty's tone looks good in this continued argument.

I’d rsther do a Colin lynch today, but Mp is very convincing.
It’s not even what he’s saying, it’s how he’s saying it

Scotty what the fuck is this?

Scotty reads Colin bad GTH on Day 3

Scotty makes a case that Elohcin and Colin are teammates -- I don't fault him for having this perspective, though I'll acknowledge the possibility that Scotty wanted to lynch Elohcin first to destroy his own case (and make Colin look better). I'll judge as I continue.

Scotty protested Charlie's civilian read on Colin on Night 3, which is a nice start emerging from the previous point. Elohcin had flipped civilian here, and Scotty kept his foot on the gas re: Colin.

Will read and respond more thru day but for now [VOTE: colin] aubergine

Scotty opened Day 4 with this Colin vote. This came before any of the claiming stuff.

I may be the most arrogant, annoying bastard on the Internet, and that means nothing about my alignment.

If I get lynched, then the civilians have scored on the wrong goal. They have rewarded the mafia for leaving me alive, and fallen for their transparent shit drooling and without freedom of will.

Colin knows I’m a civilian and gets my vote.

I read you as civilian. Unless they’re sitting on their hands and not broadcasting suspicions, almost everybody else in the game seems to be reading you as civilian too — are they going to get lynched for that?

Well that’s patently false. He currently has 2 votes. And who firmly reads him as civ?

Scotty isn't giving Colin an inch on anything.

Better mafia to nightkill a confirmed civilian power role than for town to mislynch a civilian power role. We need to use the lynch on the scum.

Unless you’re just buying time because you want to get civ numbers down before you’re outed as Caebernog.

What do you suppose we should do with Marmot if nobody counterclaims Keith Shover?

I fully expect Keith to not claim. I support that decision, and it’s why I’m now 100% convinced he’s scum.

The only way a scum would be brazen enough to fakeclaim, though, is if they know they won’t be lynched. (I would think, anyway.) So whether we want to use the lynch to confirm that ... idk. I don’t know where we sit numbers-wise if we change the phase-patters until LYLO like that.

your hand is so far in the cookie jar right now you need the jaws of life to get it out

lol

Scotty ended Day 4 with his vote on Marmot because of the doctor-covering-for-the-cop thing. I can't fault him for the vote in the moment, because I found that highly suspicious too. Scotty wasn't present for the remainder of the phase though, when the tide turned back against Colin.

~~~

Colin's first observation of Scotty was that he "looked different than AG". He didn't expand on that until asked to by MP:

Scotty, I dunno, it’s a tone thing. I remember him in AG being silly (well, drunk) but then as time went by he seemed, from my perspective as a scum, to be a big player in the thread and someone I was wary of for a minute (until I died...) And here I’m not feeling the same way. It’s hard to articulate and maybe I could provide examples but it’s more like looking at the performance in the games together.

I get the impression Colin is trying to grunt out a solid log of bullshit here.

Pale Green Things on Colin's Day 2 rainbow, later suggesting he was starting to look more like his AG self

Aaaaand my aunt will be here very shortly, so, I don't have time to do more. If I die plz get a scum for me.

GTH reads (not ISO informed)

Marmot — sketched out by Choutas vote, do not like that he's more active than I remember town Marmot being, along lines with MP
nutella — yeah, OK
Quin — his resurgence last night felt genuine to me, but I have such a hard time getting a read on this guy. leaning true neutral to town but it could really be anywhere
Scotty — didn't like his latest line of argument against me, hard reading him too, but I would put him slightly above Quin for now because he looks like his AG play

Doesn't want to town read him, but does anyway -- succumbing to prevailing wisdom. Decent look for Scotty.

Eventually accuses Scotty of being in a tunnel in such a way that I think looks like an exasperated mafioso trying to swat away a ferocious civilian.

~~~~~

Conclusion

There's a lot more good than bad for Scotty here. I don't think he emerges from this stuff looking worse. As always, I encourage dissenters to voice their opinions loudly. Don't take my analyses as gospel.

[Marmot]

Not saying other|s aren't deserving of the win. Just saying I personally wouldn't be too upset losing to Nut or Jimmey at this point. More impressed.

You're on my team right Dizzy?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I find Scotty's case pretty gross actually. I don't recognize myself in the narrative he paints at all. Maybe I'm OMGUSing. Would appreciate opinions on this. Also will go through a Scotty ISO at some point.

I read your response, and it reminds me of your responses to me earlier in the game. You don't care for cases against you if you don't feel they are well-conceived. Instead of stuffing myself into that two-way fountain of bias, how about you just review the interactive analysis I just posted and see how you feel about that (and/or compile your own)?

That question sounds snotty, but I don't mean for it to. I don't know how to make it sound friendly.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Charlie Blackmon
Scotty

Dyslexicon

nutella

Quin

[Dyslexicon]

Not saying other|s aren't deserving of the win. Just saying I personally wouldn't be too upset losing to Nut or Jimmey at this point. More impressed.

You're on my team right Dizzy?

Yus. I feel like bowing my head. : (

[Marmot]

I don't want to to a Jay/Colin analysis, you can't make me.

[Marmot]

Not saying other|s aren't deserving of the win. Just saying I personally wouldn't be too upset losing to Nut or Jimmey at this point. More impressed.

You're on my team right Dizzy?

Yus. I feel like bowing my head. : (

As long as you aren't thoroughly licking me right now, then I forgive you.

[Marmot]

I don't want to to a Jay/Colin analysis, you can't make me.

Actually, I probably will do one, but it won't be tonight. It'll be on Day 5.

Mafia please don't kill me tonight, k thanks.

[Dyslexicon]

I find Scotty's case pretty gross actually. I don't recognize myself in the narrative he paints at all. Maybe I'm OMGUSing. Would appreciate opinions on this. Also will go through a Scotty ISO at some point.

I read your response, and it reminds me of your responses to me earlier in the game. You don't care for cases against you if you don't feel they are well-conceived. Instead of stuffing myself into that two-way fountain of bias, how about you just review the interactive analysis I just posted and see how you feel about that (and/or compile your own)?

That question sounds snotty, but I don't mean for it to. I don't know how to make it sound friendly.

I get it. I DO feel super icky about the case. It felt constructed to point out bad things and take issue with things, finding a reason to call me scum with Colin.

And yeah, I will do that. But I'm going to wait for a bit so I have fresher eyes. I do get upset when players put poop on my posts and throws them on me.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Jay, why shouldn't I think you're Colin's teammate?

I'll answer your question now.

I don’t know about Jay you guys. Would he make a legacy post that long, for the second time in the game, if he were scum? My instinct and knowledge of him as a player tells me he’d put the effort to try to frame somebody else instead or something.

Colin knew I was a civilian. This was the basis of my suspicion of him for some time, because posts like this one above made it evident that Colin didn't need much convincing to buy that I am a good guy. This came when I was under considerable pressure from MP, and Colin positioned himself to look pristine in the event that I got mislynched. It backfired.

Separately there's a high chance Marmot gets lynched if I don't refuse to accept the 5-0 wagon lead he had built at this point without doing all of my homework. I went back through Colin's comments between Marmot's claim and his counterclaim, and pointed out this contradiction in his story. I wasn't the only reason Colin ended up lynched, but I think I played the largest role in ensuring he became a wagon again to at least compete with Marmot's.

I could say more, but I don't want to spend a lot of time on this.

[Dyslexicon]

Yeah, Jimmey is town. Marmot is town. Charlie is town.
Nut is almost certainly town.
This is not a bad situation.

[ColinIsCool]

Mafia please don't kill me tonight, k thanks.

I can’t make any promises.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

This is not a bad situation.

It can be if we don't agree on the two-player POE. So keep digging.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

If I consider how the top candidates look at face value, based on their effort, tone, and my perception of the difficulty of making their posts with a mafia mindset, I think my reads look similar.

Scotty and Dyslexicon have both assembled post histories that look authentic to me more often than not. Scotty's efforts to catch up with the continuing dialogues after time away looked very real, and I didn't get any of the wrong impressions from his more thorough analytic efforts. I think Dizzy's tone has sounded the right way in pressure situations, both when they've responded to accusations (even if I don't always care for the arguments portrayed, the passion underlying them looks true), and when they've been in end-of-day scenarios with a decision to make.

nutella has looked pretty authentic for the most part since she joined the game. Her posts have come loosely and don't seem burdened by the cautions often exhibited by mafia members. I do feel a little doubt about her changes of heart given the speed at which they've come and the circumstances. In multiple cases, her mind has changed with the wind -- literally, when any player presents a new idea, she has grabbed at it, swung over the creek, and leaped in with glee. There've been times where I felt like someone could case someone else based upon the type of pie they like most, and nutella would have gone for that case. I don't know that she has produced much original material, and that inherently makes her content easier to produce as a mafioso.

Quin's content would seem the easiest to generate as a bad guy given that there is less of it quantitatively and qualitatively. The posts are fewer and less robust. Confident reads are littered throughout his post history, but only a couple have been substantiated (primarily the town read on Marmot). His behavior under pressure has been unorthodox for members of any alignment, both the self-voting shenanigans and later his cranky response to a few mentions of suspicion when all the real heat was on Colin and Marmot. This manner of self-obsession isn't hard to envision for a bad guy.

[Marmot]

I wonder if it's as simple as lynch Quin tomorrow, then voile!

[Tangrowth]

I don’t even drink coffee.

What is wrong with you?