DFS Mafia [ENDGAME]

[Tangrowth]

There are four major things I think we should dial in on in order to determine who next to lynch. I will call them "Quadrants".


Quadrant 1: Who did Alien talk about? Who did they suspect? Who did they trust?

Quadrant 2: Who talked about alien? Who trusted them, who suspected them? When did they suspect alien (pre/post Russ Case?)

Quadrant 3: How did people react to the Russ Case and similar Alien Cases? Was there a save attempt or a bus attempt?

Quadrant 4: Who can we clear based on an alien lynch?

This is a bit Captain Obvious. That doesn't have to be a problem. Sometimes obvious calls to action are worthwhile to motivate people.

But DH has done nothing with any of these quadrants. Indeed, he has received two votes and no allies, and his only effort has been to give me sarcasm. I'm inclined to view the "quadrants" post as fake.

Agree. I feel the same way about his post on D1 which you memed Millionare style.

[Tangrowth]

DH and Robot definitely need to be lynched especially if they’re underwhelming today.

[Tsaiah]

Oh and that makes me think of something else--[mention]M Plus 7[/mention], you said something about how i was using my time at eod that made me headtilt like an owl xD

I stopped catching up (stopping catching up when i'm feeling perpetually behind is a Big Deal) the night before bc of getting to the fuck it, i've gotta read those other alien games now to compare point. I fell asleep thinking about that. I woke up and immediately went back to mulling that over. I braintongued at it in between guests at work. Then i managed to get off work and back here in just enough time to address it, get some final questions in, and make my final decision.

So from my pov, it's like, why the heck would i have been doing anything else?

[Tangrowth]

Alien really played a good game, it should be stated.

[Tangrowth]

Oh and that makes me think of something else--@M Plus 7, you said something about how i was using my time at eod that made me headtilt like an owl xD

I stopped catching up (stopping catching up when i'm feeling perpetually behind is a Big Deal) the night before bc of getting to the fuck it, i've gotta read those other alien games now to compare point. I fell asleep thinking about that. I woke up and immediately went back to mulling that over. I braintongued at it in between guests at work. Then i managed to get off work and back here in just enough time to address it, get some final questions in, and make my final decision.

So from my pov, it's like, why the heck would i have been doing anything else?

I actually said that specifically to provoke you and because I was tinfoiling hard in that moment and needed to be sure.

[Tangrowth]

Consider me fully satisfied though. You're clearly town.

[Tangrowth]

In fact I'm betting my reputation here and now that Tsaiah is town. Lock it.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I thought Marmot looked pretty good during his brief incursion into the thread starting around the GTH exercise.

[Tangrowth]

I thought Marmot looked pretty good during his brief incursion into the thread starting around the GTH exercise.

I thought that at the time, and I still think that.

I feel like the gamestate is in an incredibly solid state right now. I keep trying to make sure I'm considering the scum universe for so many players, but I really think we just have so many reasons to read like half the players or more as town.

[Tangrowth]

In fact I'm betting my reputation here and now that Tsaiah is town. Lock it.

I swear to fucking god I will never hear the end of this if I'm wrong but I'm 99.99% sure that I'm not.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

If you're going to lock someone, you might as well do it big.

[Tangrowth]

If you're going to lock someone, you might as well do it big.

Damn straight.

If there's one thing I've learned the most over the past few months at Champs, it's that my biggest weakness as a player headed into the tournament, as a townie anyway, was that I doubted myself too much out of fear of being wrong and let myself be persuaded into nonsensical WIFOM arguments inside my own head that not only wasted time but caused myself to look suspicious and clutter up the thread.

No longer. I feel like I've gotten much better at just taking a stance based on gut and analysis, and not only just force myself to do so in good faith and feel good about it, but also do so all the while increasing the accuracy of my reads.

Reassessment is one thing and always can and should happen. That's also something I feel like I've gotten much better at over the last couple of years.

[Lunalee]

Lunalee, I'd really love to hear any response you can provide to this. You're an extremely important player in the current scenario, and sorting you out could make all the difference.

Okay, will do. I also want to do some analysis today, but man Jay, I don't know if it's necessary after all of your posts. :P I'll help fill in where I can.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Okay, will do. I also want to do some analysis today, but man Jay, I don't know if it's necessary after all of your posts. :P I'll help fill in where I can.

Nothing could possibly be more necessary, my friend.

I am one guy. I say wrong and dumb things sometimes. Please, by all means, do all the analytic work you want to do. It is important.

[Tsaiah]

Spoiler: show

Do Not Touch With Rope list rn is Aby, Russ, MP, Jay
I Feel Like Mac Would Probably Appreciate His Own Category: Mac
Probably Do Not Wave Rope At list rn is Kyle, Colin, Luna

Robot could be scum here. Gonna have to iso first to get my own read there, which ain't happening today. Work last night was brutal to the core (yay working at a restaurant during the first week of semester in a university town!), and for some dingdang reason I woke up after like four hours anyway--trying to iso would almost certainly end up in an unscheduled nap, so nope, it's off the cuff stuff for today.

I think DH was the one i wasn't liking alien interaction stuffs with, not TH? (Y'all call them initials so much that I'm just now getting to the point that i don't comflate them in my head when someone else is talking about them.) Will figure that out tomorrow too if i don't by random thread poking today.

In any case, don't think i've seen a proposed lynch i have any known reason to dislike yet, so fine with the start today

Annnd something something _postus interruptus_ by a sudden rainstorm, idr what else i was about to say before the mad scramble to put up my tablet (at least it woke me up a bit )



(Freakin sod flavor made me lol, kudos for that xD)

@ Tsaiah

I think you and I are pretty much on the same page. What do you make of sprityo? Curious about that when you get a chance.

[Mention]M Plus 7[/mention]

After catching up with the thread, i tried the GTH exercise (which y'all did without me, smh) on myself, and on sprityo I misfired x3--they were almost a total blank. The only thing I've got in the memory banks is that he disected a case that i think was against him inside the quote style, and that he sounded angry. So reading thru them is definitely on my todo list for d2.

If you haven't talked about it yet, how do you feel about alien's treatment of kylemii and Luna?

[Tangrowth]

Lunalee, I'd really love to hear any response you can provide to this. You're an extremely important player in the current scenario, and sorting you out could make all the difference.

Okay, will do. I also want to do some analysis today, but man Jay, I don't know if it's necessary after all of your posts. :P I'll help fill in where I can.

It's always necessary.

The way town wins games is by working together. Everyone has a unique perspective to a situation that should be voiced. X heads are better than 1 and all of that.

Not only that but it helps us sort you when you provide content, and that also advances the town cause.

[Tangrowth]

Okay, will do. I also want to do some analysis today, but man Jay, I don't know if it's necessary after all of your posts. :P I'll help fill in where I can.

Nothing could possibly be more necessary, my friend.

I am one guy. I say wrong and dumb things sometimes. Please, by all means, do all the analytic work you want to do. It is important.

I love being on the same team as you.

[Tangrowth]

[mention]Tsaiah[/mention]

Spoiler: show

Spoiler: show

Do Not Touch With Rope list rn is Aby, Russ, MP, Jay
I Feel Like Mac Would Probably Appreciate His Own Category: Mac
Probably Do Not Wave Rope At list rn is Kyle, Colin, Luna

Robot could be scum here. Gonna have to iso first to get my own read there, which ain't happening today. Work last night was brutal to the core (yay working at a restaurant during the first week of semester in a university town!), and for some dingdang reason I woke up after like four hours anyway--trying to iso would almost certainly end up in an unscheduled nap, so nope, it's off the cuff stuff for today.

I think DH was the one i wasn't liking alien interaction stuffs with, not TH? (Y'all call them initials so much that I'm just now getting to the point that i don't comflate them in my head when someone else is talking about them.) Will figure that out tomorrow too if i don't by random thread poking today.

In any case, don't think i've seen a proposed lynch i have any known reason to dislike yet, so fine with the start today

Annnd something something _postus interruptus_ by a sudden rainstorm, idr what else i was about to say before the mad scramble to put up my tablet (at least it woke me up a bit )



(Freakin sod flavor made me lol, kudos for that xD)

@ Tsaiah

I think you and I are pretty much on the same page. What do you make of sprityo? Curious about that when you get a chance.

@M Plus 7

After catching up with the thread, i tried the GTH exercise (which y'all did without me, smh) on myself, and on sprityo I misfired x3--they were almost a total blank. The only thing I've got in the memory banks is that he disected a case that i think was against him inside the quote style, and that he sounded angry. So reading thru them is definitely on my todo list for d2.

If you haven't talked about it yet, how do you feel about alien's treatment of kylemii and Luna?

I'll gladly take any excuse to do in real time GTH exercises, so by all means, if we can do another with you at some other point in this game, I am all for it.

If I recall correctly Jay and I held GTH exercises as many as ... 3 times in the course of one game? Was it Economics even?

Yeah, that was against Mac, what you're referring to. That sounds like a plan. Definitely let me know what you think once you get through his ISO. I think he's one of the most important players to sort right now.

I think Alien spewed Kyle as town pretty hard; it's probably the most TMI he was of anyone. That's my assessment of it anyway. I still wouldn't lock Kyle as town, but he's definitely my strongest town read of anyone outside of near confirmed land.

Re: Luna, I'm torn there. I actually just got to Jay's analysis so I'll read it in-depth here and throw out some thoughts.

[Tangrowth]

I think my read of Luna is somewhat dependent on Robot actually being scum.

If Robot is scum, then I feel like both Alien and Robot were trying to shade her and were banking on an ML there.

[Tangrowth]

Ahhhh I guess it could still be distancing though. I still feel torn. I definitely think I'm pulled more towards her being town if Robot is scum though.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Luna teeters on the edge of the danger zone. I think I will decide my feelings on the matter based upon her posts moving forward rather than the alien interactions. They leave many questions.

[Tangrowth]

In fact I'm betting my reputation here and now that Tsaiah is town. Lock it.

[mention]Tsaiah[/mention]

You want to make this a mutual lock?

[Tangrowth]

Luna teeters on the edge of the danger zone. I think I will decide my feelings on the matter based upon her posts moving forward rather than the alien interactions. They leave many questions.

Yeah, it's a tough call for sure. I still think she's probably more town than not though, especially independent of Alien.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

In fact I'm betting my reputation here and now that Tsaiah is town. Lock it.

@Tsaiah

You want to make this a mutual lock?

HeS bUdDyInG yOu

[Tsaiah]

runs under cover before it starts raining -again-

In fact I'm betting my reputation here and now that Tsaiah is town. Lock it.

I swear to fucking god I will never hear the end of this if I'm wrong but I'm 99.99% sure that I'm not.

Your reputation is safe!

That said, while I'll probably have tinfoil moments like i tend to do with Aby, realistically I'm already at the betting the game on you point, too. :3

[Tangrowth]

I'm really starting to think our last two scum are just within the following four-tier pools in pretty much 99% of universes (just lynch in the following order starting from Robot downward):

RobotNerd277
DharmaHelper

if that doesn't resolve, then:

Turnip Head
Marmot
Lunalee

if that doesn't resolve, then:

sprityo

if that SOMEHOW doesn't resolve, then we live in the tinfoil universe:

MacDougall

And honestly I think in 95% of universes we don't get past the second pool.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I'll determine our theoretical number of mislynches available, so all of the POO work can reflect the size the pool needs to be.

[Tsaiah]

In fact I'm betting my reputation here and now that Tsaiah is town. Lock it.

@ Tsaiah

You want to make this a mutual lock?

HeS bUdDyInG yOu

JAY STAHP

[Tangrowth]

runs under cover before it starts raining -again-

In fact I'm betting my reputation here and now that Tsaiah is town. Lock it.

I swear to fucking god I will never hear the end of this if I'm wrong but I'm 99.99% sure that I'm not.

Your reputation is safe!

That said, while I'll probably have tinfoil moments like i tend to do with Aby, realistically I'm already at the betting the game on you point, too. :3

No worries, yours is safe as well.

[Tangrowth]

I'll determine our theoretical number of mislynches available, so all of the POO work can reflect the size the pool needs to be.

That would be ideal, thank you.

[Tsaiah]

And yus, I think I'm there.

[Tangrowth]

I'm really starting to think our last two scum are just within the following four-tier pools in pretty much 99% of universes (just lynch in the following order starting from Robot downward):

RobotNerd277
DharmaHelper

if that doesn't resolve, then:

Turnip Head
Marmot
Lunalee

if that doesn't resolve, then:

sprityo

if that SOMEHOW doesn't resolve, then we live in the tinfoil universe:

MacDougall

And honestly I think in 95% of universes we don't get past the second pool.

I think this illustrates why Luna, sprityo, and Mac are SO CRUCIAL to solving this game though, because if I'm wrong and there is a scum straggler outside of these, we need to figure that out soon.

[Tangrowth]

Also! I missed my 1,000th post in a single game thread! This is 1,003.

[Tangrowth]

Now I can be committed to the asylum.

[Tangrowth]

And yus, I think I'm there.

Finding each other as town with 99.99% confidence on Day 2? How do you feel about that?

[Tangrowth]

And just LOL if somehow we live in a universe where the scum team is some combination of Russ/Jay/Tsaiah/aby. I'm willing to just laugh and clap and say good game if that's the case, even if I will keep reassessing to make sure I catch that soon if it is the case.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

We started with 15 players.

The most likely arrangement of alignments is 12 civilians versus 3 mafia. 11 versus 4 is technically plausible, but I don't think it's likely in a vanilla-heavy heist. That's hard to balance, and Epignosis is less likely to screw around with that kind of swing than most hosts would be.

Given that the winning contestant will be granted a win as an independent, I think it's inherently less likely that the game features any standard independents.

So, I work with 12 vs. 3.

Day 1 was a mafia lynch, and Night 1 had no kill. That'd leave us in Day 2 at 12 vs. 2.

If every day from this point results in a mislynch and a kill follows in the night, that can happen four times before we reach 4 vs. 2 in Day 6. That would represent MyLo (and LyLo if we are unable to no lynch).

4 mislynches available, 2 mafia alive, the POO pool must correctly feature 6 names -- this assumes I haven't screwed the pooch in my math/logic here. Failed kills would change the dynamic.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Also! I missed my 1,000th post in a single game thread! This is 1,003.

I believe you're the first to do so in a heist.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

If you're fearful of the 11 vs. 4 possibility, the pool must obviously be narrowed accordingly.

[nutella]

I got the moves like Jagged

[Tangrowth]

We started with 15 players.

The most likely arrangement of alignments is 12 civilians versus 3 mafia. 11 versus 4 is technically plausible, but I don't think it's likely in a vanilla-heavy heist. That's hard to balance, and Epignosis is less likely to screw around with that kind of swing than most hosts would be.

Given that the winning contestant will be granted a win as an independent, I think it's inherently less likely that the game features any standard independents.

So, I work with 12 vs. 3.

Day 1 was a mafia lynch, and Night 1 had no kill. That'd leave us in Day 2 at 12 vs. 2.

If every day from this point results in a mislynch and a kill follows in the night, that can happen four times before we reach 4 vs. 2 in Day 6. That would represent MyLo (and LyLo if we are unable to no lynch).

4 mislynches available, 2 mafia alive, the POO pool must correctly feature 6 names -- this assumes I haven't screwed the pooch in my math/logic here. Failed kills would change the dynamic.

This seems correct to me.

So... assuming my list above was hard-followed (which is NOT recommended, because #constantreassessment, but it's how I currently stand), that means the most likely outcome if the game isn't solved until F3 is a sprityo lynch.

[Tangrowth]

Also! I missed my 1,000th post in a single game thread! This is 1,003.

I believe you're the first to do so in a heist.

[Tangrowth]

If you're fearful of the 11 vs. 4 possibility, the pool must obviously be narrowed accordingly.

Honestly 11 v. 4 would be fucked. I'd like to think Epi wouldn't do that to us, especially as a king of balance.

[Tangrowth]

We started with 15 players.

The most likely arrangement of alignments is 12 civilians versus 3 mafia. 11 versus 4 is technically plausible, but I don't think it's likely in a vanilla-heavy heist. That's hard to balance, and Epignosis is less likely to screw around with that kind of swing than most hosts would be.

Given that the winning contestant will be granted a win as an independent, I think it's inherently less likely that the game features any standard independents.

So, I work with 12 vs. 3.

Day 1 was a mafia lynch, and Night 1 had no kill. That'd leave us in Day 2 at 12 vs. 2.

If every day from this point results in a mislynch and a kill follows in the night, that can happen four times before we reach 4 vs. 2 in Day 6. That would represent MyLo (and LyLo if we are unable to no lynch).

4 mislynches available, 2 mafia alive, the POO pool must correctly feature 6 names -- this assumes I haven't screwed the pooch in my math/logic here. Failed kills would change the dynamic.

This seems correct to me.

So... assuming my list above was hard-followed (which is NOT recommended, because #constantreassessment, but it's how I currently stand), that means the most likely outcome if the game isn't solved until F3 is a sprityo lynch.

[mention]sprityo[/mention]

Do everything you can to wow us with your town feathers please. I need it. I need to find you as town.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

[mention]M Plus 7[/mention], it'd be helpful to see what you think of my abyssum interaction review.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

and the Mac review

[Tangrowth]

Good timing, lol, I just got to the abyssum one.

[Tangrowth]

The Mac one I need to revisit, but I think he's town. I feel like honestly that's the hardest one to judge.

[Tangrowth]

I've been speeding up in the interest of time too. I really need to get some solid work done today, so I'll likely be pretty much gone until tomorrow once I leave soon here.

[Tangrowth]

I definitely still think abyssum is the most likely straggler into my top 4 reads. She should get some pressure. I'm still reading. I agree with your early points though so far.