DFS Mafia [ENDGAME]

[abyssum]

wow it's D2 and we only have 3 players

[abyssum]

i'll read Alien's ISO and try to more critically reassess it without viewing it through the lens of your analysis posts, though

might come out with a different conclusion, let's see

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Good call, excellent choice, super idea.

[abyssum]

Ughhh Mac's mindset makes sense but I disagree since I never like to assume people will inevitably be mislynched as a Townie because they can always bring it back, but I don't think it's necessarily alignment-indicative because I know people who favour lynches like that as Town 'they're gonna die inevitably anyway so let's kill them for info', but it is definitely scum compatible and the fact he suggested it to Jay after Jay's story makes me think 'hmm' and that in combination with my earlier points makes me inclined to lean that it's a Mafia sided thing rather than a Town thing (how's this for hedge!)

Can someone give me a run down on the sprito case since it looks like it's him vs me vs mac right now?

I have to go away again now, I'll be back in like an hour I think

(sorry in advance to Alien for the notifications and to the thread at large for the jumping around that will inevitably happen in this ISO; i do nothing sequentially because i'm the worst)

i think this sort of post from Alien has a very high chance of being Alien expressing some irritation/frustration at one of his potential mislynch targets posting in a way that looks townier. i don't think this progression is really unusual for Alien, either

scenario A (where Mac is town): he knows that Mac is posting like town would, and he feels compelled to acknowledge that towniness (because what if other people see it?) but at the same time wants to discredit and dismiss what Mac is saying. scum Alien sees town behavior and acknowledges it, at least from what little i've learned from playing with him. it's almost like the initial suspicion is easy because he can post confidently about it, but as further engagement from town comes around, that confidence is shaken and he starts feeling like he needs to give them points even when scumreading them or discrediting them

scenario B (where Mac is a partner): at a time when both Alien and Mac are wagons and in a position where a lynch is possible, Alien is trying to discredit Mac's lynch plans of a third party (Turnip Head). it's possible that, in a world where Turnip Head is town, Alien is trying to nab some credit if that lynch goes off, because he can point back to the post where he outlined the issues with that sort of lynch (though this relies on a world in which Alien is willing to get some heat on Mac in exchange for Alien's own cred). while i don't think there's a lot of coordination if this is the case, Alien may not be the type to coordinate actions out of the thread.

i don't think that Alien, when talking about Mac as a partner, feels any compulsions to acknowledge when Mac makes a towny post. i also don't think he feels the need to explain and explain about Mac's potential mindset, or why he feels the motivation to do what he's doing, or the ways that his plans can go wrong--unless Mac is actually town. please offer takes on this, especially the people here who have also played with Alien or spectated the games that he played (but anyone is welcome to weigh in).

the interesting thing here is that Alien is talking about Turnip Head (or rather Mac's proposed plan of lynching Turnip Head). this is the second time that Alien has very indirectly defended Turnip Head--the first was with Lunalee, when he used her reads post to call her suspicion on TH insincere & also question the validity of her read on him.

i think that Turnip Head could be town based on scenario A, btw; it could be that Alien is just prone to TMI and happened to TMI the same player twice in two different places. in the unlikely world where Mac/Alien are teamed, i don't think the team is Mac/Alien/Turnip/(mystery slot if there is one).

stray thought: i want to look at posts where Alien directly addresses people instead of addressing the thread or speaking about them in the third person. [mention]M Plus 7[/mention] [mention]Tsaiah[/mention] [mention]RobotNerd277[/mention] when Alien was town in G9, did he make the sorts of posts where he would quote somebody and make general statements about them instead of engaging them/using second-person language mostly?

[abyssum]

he probably just TMI'd Kyle and Colin too. he didn't really do much to explain his take on the situation, he just said it feels/seems like they're town/town based on their arguing. it was done at a time when Alien started needing town allies as well. this isn't really catastrophic if Alien needs to lynch one of them later down the line either, since it's just an impressions post without much passion behind it. ("not really catastrophic" lends itself well if one of them is scum too though)

if i had to put one of them as the scum partner in that situation, it'd probably be Colin? but Colin has a couple of other good looks independent of that situation

[abyssum]

he probably just TMI'd Kyle and Colin too. he didn't really do much to explain his take on the situation, he just said it feels/seems like they're town/town based on their arguing. it was done at a time when Alien started needing town allies as well. this isn't really catastrophic if Alien needs to lynch one of them later down the line either, since it's just an impressions post without much passion behind it. ("not really catastrophic" lends itself well if one of them is scum too though)

if i had to put one of them as the scum partner in that situation, it'd probably be Colin? but Colin has a couple of other good looks independent of that situation

in very close proximity to this, alien quoted a post that i made and said that he townread me for it, which makes me think he was just trying to tack on town supporters where he could.

[abyssum]

You gave select reads on random players in randomised groups with very little structure to the post it's a known scum tell.

What? They're not random players they're the ones I have strong feelings about, and they're not random groups they're 'would lynch vs town'

OOOOH

[mention]Tsaiah[/mention] come here when you can and tell me what you think about this!!!

[Lunalee]

Astronomical post in progress. Please stand by...

[abyssum]

Astronomical post in progress. Please stand by...

i am EXCITED

[JaggedJimmyJay]

abyssum your thoughts on Mac are compelling and I feel more secure in the civilianhood of both of you.

I want to add a phone to my angry bear so it's like Dana Scully just called and gave the full scoop.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

i don't think that Alien, when talking about Mac as a partner, feels any compulsions to acknowledge when Mac makes a towny post. i also don't think he feels the need to explain and explain about Mac's potential mindset, or why he feels the motivation to do what he's doing, or the ways that his plans can go wrong--unless Mac is actually town. please offer takes on this, especially the people here who have also played with Alien or spectated the games that he played (but anyone is welcome to weigh in).

[/quote]

This bit especially helped me to progress from



to

[Marmot]

Popping in to give Robot a drive-by vote.

[ColinIsCool]

Popping in to give Robot a drive-by vote.

What do you like about the case on Robot?

[abyssum]

Here I got one, who is gonna look better and who worse once alien flips?

I’m not sure how much interaction I’ve seen between alien and other players outside of his questions that would indicate alignment

i know this isn't in Alien's ISO, but i actually think this may reflect poorly on sprityo & want some input on it

Alien hadn't flipped at this point, so the only people who knew what he would flip were his teammates. the way that sprityo has this post worded sort of has an implicit red flip in it; even though sprityo doesn't say that alien will flip mafia, the emphasis on alien's questions leans that way. (town Alien's questions wouldn't necessarily indicate much of anything but sincerity on Alien's behalf. there's a possibility that sprityo is referring to responses to questions tho)

MP7 noted that this came pretty shortly before alien's actual flip. could be feeling some pressure to appear involved and like he's progressing the game forward

i'm keeping in mind Jay's point about breaking up me/sprityo as teammates, but i thought i'd make a note of it anyway

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Here I got one, who is gonna look better and who worse once alien flips?

I’m not sure how much interaction I’ve seen between alien and other players outside of his questions that would indicate alignment

i know this isn't in Alien's ISO, but i actually think this may reflect poorly on sprityo & want some input on it

Alien hadn't flipped at this point, so the only people who knew what he would flip were his teammates. the way that sprityo has this post worded sort of has an implicit red flip in it; even though sprityo doesn't say that alien will flip mafia, the emphasis on alien's questions leans that way. (town Alien's questions wouldn't necessarily indicate much of anything but sincerity on Alien's behalf. there's a possibility that sprityo is referring to responses to questions tho)

MP7 noted that this came pretty shortly before alien's actual flip. could be feeling some pressure to appear involved and like he's progressing the game forward

i'm keeping in mind Jay's point about breaking up me/sprityo as teammates, but i thought i'd make a note of it anyway

I was under the impression sprityo made that post before the actual flip, but after alien had already admitted to being a mafioso. I'll double-check.

[Marmot]

I don't know what the case is, but I'm voting him because of this post.

@Marmot

hi do you exist

what is your opinion on literally anything? I think I particularly want perspectives on MacDougall, whose play I initially read as overly abrasive and distracting, but I'm now nodding my head along to everything they're saying. What do you think of them and their opinions?

I'll give Robot a vote.

This is a very wishy-washy post. Additionally, Robot is focusing a lot of attention on Macdougall, despite admitting here that he agrees with Mac.

That's my opinion, have it.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Yeah I'm wrong. alien hadn't thrown in the towel yet. [mention]sprityo[/mention] should talk about abyssum's point.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

F5s one more time for Lunalee's astronomical post

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I appreciate that Marmot isn't wasting away in eternal "I have to catch up" purgatory, and is instead placing votes based on even one little thing that he found -- and it makes sense that he found it since he was the focus of the post.

[abyssum]

I appreciate that Marmot isn't wasting away in eternal "I have to catch up" purgatory, and is instead placing votes based on even one little thing that he found -- and it makes sense that he found it since he was the focus of the post.

i think i tentatively like it but mostly because of the timing

as a lynch isn't going down Right Now or incredibly soon

[MacDougall]

Luna gimme dat post

[Lunalee]

Okay, I'm going back and reading Russtifinko's case on Alien, and the Alien lynch makes a lot more since now. I didn't keep up with what was going on end of day 1, and was only noting Alien's constant probing on other people's posts (including my own) which is why I gave Alien such a strong town-read. That aside, I'm going to analyze the lynch and some of Alien's posts, and give my thoughts.
B ased off of the Alien lynch, I give Russ a pretty firm town read from his effort to call Alien out. It also convinces me that MacDougall is town because I don't believe Alien would have tried to form a case against a scum-mate.
Now for all the fun WIFOM in Alien's read lists:

Colin - light Town although I don't remember why I have that in my head
Kyle - I don't remember any of their posts, null read
Marmot - Same as Kyle
Robot - Null, nothing alignment-indicative so far
Russ - Light Town because their posts accusing me felt genuine actually
Spirit - Same as Kyle and Marmot
Turnip - Same as Robot

COLIN TOWN
JAY TOWN
LUNA TOWN
M PLUS 7 SCUM
RUSS SCUM
SPRIT NO IDEA NOBODY'S TELLING ME THE CASE ON THEM
MAC TOWN
ROBOT TOWN
DH MAFIA
umm, give me more names

Alright, legacy reads as of right now bearing in mind I've missed the past few pages:

Scum: Russ - once I die please go back and read my response to his case against me because it's completely biased and agendary
M Plus 7: my gut is back on him again now after he suspected me trying to catch up and I have no idea how he got to that, and 'player salad', feels like he's just trying to find reasons to suspect me again. Will repeat his dogpees didn't feel genuine to me at all

Probably scum but gut says Town: Mac, reasons same as before, but gut is saying his reactions to my slowly turning against him is Town

Town: Tsiah, Jay, both I love their lines of interrogation and they just seem really Town to me. Aby, her defence of me from Jay felt really genuine trying to figure Jay out and wasn't afraid of splashing herself with what was being thrown my way
I wanna say Luna's town now for her defence of me too

Everyone else has for + againsts that I outlined before, nothing really changed on those

When I read JJJ's analysis of Alien and Colin's interactions, Colin didn't look very good to me. Add that to the fact that Alien slaps a TOWN on him at the very top of both read lists, and I'm pretty convinced Colin is scum.
Jay's in-depth analysis of Alien's interactions makes me think he's town. Regardless of what ever WIFOM may be going on in Alien's posts.
MP has to be town. I have been convinced by his effort in this game, and also by Alien calling him scum.
If Sprityo was Alien's scum-mate would Alien really do him the disservice of not giving him at least a tentative town read? Perhaps Alien didn't care about the sprityo case because sprityo is town (Complete 180 on my previous sprityo read, but that was a forced GTH, and I'm allowed to change it).
Alien kept a pretty neutral read on Robot for a while, but then in this post Alien felt a need to point out that Robot was exhibiting town behavior. I'm inclined to suspect Robot as scum.
DharmaHelper has a rough, devil-may-care approach to mafia, which makes it easy for someone who hasn't played with him before to peg him as scum. This may be why Alien thought he could drop an easy scum read on DH. But he also ignores DH in the rest of his player read posts. I think DH could be town.
Kyle, Marmot, and Turnip are all listed as null, and are only mentioned on one of the above posts. I'm inclined to think Alien gave three townies null reads because he didn't want to put in the effort to peg them as scum if they weren't posting things obviously questionable, but that opinion seems too easy, so off to JJJ's analysis posts I go.
Kylemii/Alien: I couldn't find a [mention]JaggedJimmyJay[/mention] analysis here?? Alien remembers none of Kyle's posts and gives a null read. Could be genuinely ignoring a townie, or deliberately distancing from a teammate. Kylemii's references to alien seem just as distant, since he doesn't know who alien is and asks other players to characterize alien's gameplay for him. Kylemii just strikes me as town. idk
Marmot/Alien: Alien seems to have a hard time grasping who Marmot even is. However it could be an act. Marmot may be scum.
TH/Alien: this analysis leaves me with a very blank read on Turnip Head. Their initial interaction originated from TH posting "Luna is bad. Anybody want to fight me?". The rest of their interactions give me nothing. TH did vote for Alien, but didn't give a reason why. TH could be scum.
Okay, Alien defended me and Aby in almost the same way. We both stuck up for him, and he gave us town reads for it. That gives me reason to think Aby is actually town.
Tsaiah doesn't get mentioned until Alien's legacy post. At which point Alien gives her a "town" read for seeming really genuine. I suspect Alien might have done this because he knows a scum read on an "obvious" townie player won't get him anywhere. Tsaiah may actually be town.
I apologize if my thought copy what others have said. I didn't exactly catch up on the thread before diving into this.

[Turnip Head]

Voting for [mention]ColinIsCool[/mention] until he gives me a recap of The Game So Far

[Lunalee]

oops, random emoji made it into my post.

[Lunalee]

Lunalee, I'd really love to hear any response you can provide to this. You're an extremely important player in the current scenario, and sorting you out could make all the difference.

Did you have any specific questions you want me to address?

[ColinIsCool]

Voting for @ColinIsCool until he gives me a recap of The Game So Far

So there’s this kid named Harry Potter. His parents got fucked up and he lives with his fat uncle until one day they get letter bombed and a walking beard comes on a motorcycle to bring him to a secret alleyway and then an invisible castle in the English countryside. He meets a ginger and a nerd and then burns a guy’s face off with his bare hands.

[ColinIsCool]

Luna put that vote on me and watch your fantasy owners shake their fists!

[Turnip Head]

Voting for @ColinIsCool until he gives me a recap of The Game So Far

So there’s this kid named Harry Potter. His parents got fucked up and he lives with his fat uncle until one day they get letter bombed and a walking beard comes on a motorcycle to bring him to a secret alleyway and then an invisible castle in the English countryside. He meets a ginger and a nerd and then burns a guy’s face off with his bare hands.

I don't see him on the poll

[abyssum]

Has anybody made a post about whether Alien is similarly hedgey in other games?

The Russ post is very good. I like it a lot. However, I think Alien's probing of abyssum looks very townish too, but I'm not sure I buy going after Russ for making his post. Hmm hmm hmm

It's not very good, his analysis of my posts with the two colours is biased and misrepresents them, his point about me having many interactions with Jay means nothing without actually looking at the content in those interactions which he didn't do, probably because he doesn't need to because he's not actually trying to sort me, his insistence that I only have one read in M Plus 7 I don't understand how he thinks that at all but he's not the only one so maybe I am just coming across badly, and his insistence of my treatment of the slip being suspicious also makes no sense to me and it feels like he's just trying to push an agenda on something that isn't really there

[mention]Lunalee[/mention] tyty for the big post! how do you feel about exchanges like this between Alien + Colin--does it read like two teammates talking to one another to you, and why?

[ColinIsCool]

Voting for @ColinIsCool until he gives me a recap of The Game So Far

So there’s this kid named Harry Potter. His parents got fucked up and he lives with his fat uncle until one day they get letter bombed and a walking beard comes on a motorcycle to bring him to a secret alleyway and then an invisible castle in the English countryside. He meets a ginger and a nerd and then burns a guy’s face off with his bare hands.

I don't see him on the poll

Shit. Guess you gotta vote for me then man

[Turnip Head]

I plan to do exactly that.

[Kylemii]

voted for myself by mistake, i was trying to view poll

[Kylemii]

but also, fuck that guy

[Turnip Head]

I don't know what the case is, but I'm voting him because of this post.

@Marmot

hi do you exist

what is your opinion on literally anything? I think I particularly want perspectives on MacDougall, whose play I initially read as overly abrasive and distracting, but I'm now nodding my head along to everything they're saying. What do you think of them and their opinions?

I'll give Robot a vote.

This is a very wishy-washy post. Additionally, Robot is focusing a lot of attention on Macdougall, despite admitting here that he agrees with Mac.

That's my opinion, have it.

Ooooh I like this.

[Lunalee]

Has anybody made a post about whether Alien is similarly hedgey in other games?

The Russ post is very good. I like it a lot. However, I think Alien's probing of abyssum looks very townish too, but I'm not sure I buy going after Russ for making his post. Hmm hmm hmm

It's not very good, his analysis of my posts with the two colours is biased and misrepresents them, his point about me having many interactions with Jay means nothing without actually looking at the content in those interactions which he didn't do, probably because he doesn't need to because he's not actually trying to sort me, his insistence that I only have one read in M Plus 7 I don't understand how he thinks that at all but he's not the only one so maybe I am just coming across badly, and his insistence of my treatment of the slip being suspicious also makes no sense to me and it feels like he's just trying to push an agenda on something that isn't really there

@Lunalee tyty for the big post! how do you feel about exchanges like this between Alien + Colin--does it read like two teammates talking to one another to you, and why?

Thank you abyssum!
First thing I notice here is Colin is very indecisive. He goes from "The Russ post is good" to "but Alien looks town" to "but I don't want to go after Russ for his post". That looks really scummy to me.
I don't see anything note worthy in Alien's response. He's just confirming why he thinks Russ's post is bad, and claiming Russ is pushing an agenda over nothing. I could see this as a teammate interaction.
I am definitely okay with voting Colin.

[Lunalee]

Luna put that vote on me and watch your fantasy owners shake their fists!

Okay.
[VOTE: ColinIsCool] aubergine

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Luna, how do you feel about Robot leading the poll right now?

[MacDougall]

Colin is not a good lynch yet. The odds of DH or RN being Mafia are much higher.

[Lunalee]

Luna, how do you feel about Robot leading the poll right now?

I'm okay with a Robot or Colin lynch. But I had to vote Colin because he dared me to.

[Lunalee]

Colin is not a good lynch yet. The odds of DH or RN being Mafia are much higher.

Why is DH more likely to be scum than Colin? I didn't see much pointing toward him.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Colin is not a good lynch yet. The odds of DH or RN being Mafia are much higher.

Why is DH more likely to be scum than Colin? I didn't see much pointing toward him.

How do you think DH looks on his own, without considering his interactions with alien?

[Lunalee]

Colin is not a good lynch yet. The odds of DH or RN being Mafia are much higher.

Why is DH more likely to be scum than Colin? I didn't see much pointing toward him.

How do you think DH looks on his own, without considering his interactions with alien?

His posts are snarky and lazy, and haven't added much to the game. Does town DH ever coast through to day 2 like this?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

His posts are snarky and lazy, and haven't added much to the game. Does town DH ever coast through to day 2 like this?

He doesn't play very often these days, so it's difficult to peg what he "usually" does. I wouldn't put it past him though to fart around all day in either alignment.

I think it's a bit more concerning though that he has provided this post to suggest directions of inquiry -- but he hasn't done anything himself to pursue those directions.

[Lunalee]

His posts are snarky and lazy, and haven't added much to the game. Does town DH ever coast through to day 2 like this?

He doesn't play very often these days, so it's difficult to peg what he "usually" does. I wouldn't put it past him though to fart around all day in either alignment.

I think it's a bit more concerning though that he has provided this post to suggest directions of inquiry -- but he hasn't done anything himself to pursue those directions.

Yeah, I noticed that post seemed like the most effort he had put in all game. And it is still basically a "to do list" for someone else to pick up. I don't know what to think about DH, but I would be okay with his lynch.

[ColinIsCool]

Colin is not a good lynch yet. The odds of DH or RN being Mafia are much higher.

Why is DH more likely to be scum than Colin? I didn't see much pointing toward him.

Do you see much reason to award town credit to either of us?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Yeah, I noticed that post seemed like the most effort he had put in all game. And it is still basically a "to do list" for someone else to pick up. I don't know what to think about DH, but I would be okay with his lynch.

I appreciate your thoughts on Colin, and the full set of reads you gave. It strikes me as a positive thing for you to go against the grain a little bit, though that must be tempered by the fact that if you're teamed with either DH or Robot, your hand is forced.

[ColinIsCool]

I don’t mind being a honey trap. If the tide does turn against me and I’m lynched, the bad guys will have mace it abundantly clear how opportunistic they were in killing me

[ColinIsCool]

*made

[sprityo]

We started with 15 players.

The most likely arrangement of alignments is 12 civilians versus 3 mafia. 11 versus 4 is technically plausible, but I don't think it's likely in a vanilla-heavy heist. That's hard to balance, and Epignosis is less likely to screw around with that kind of swing than most hosts would be.

Given that the winning contestant will be granted a win as an independent, I think it's inherently less likely that the game features any standard independents.

So, I work with 12 vs. 3.

Day 1 was a mafia lynch, and Night 1 had no kill. That'd leave us in Day 2 at 12 vs. 2.

If every day from this point results in a mislynch and a kill follows in the night, that can happen four times before we reach 4 vs. 2 in Day 6. That would represent MyLo (and LyLo if we are unable to no lynch).

4 mislynches available, 2 mafia alive, the POO pool must correctly feature 6 names -- this assumes I haven't screwed the pooch in my math/logic here. Failed kills would change the dynamic.

This seems correct to me.

So... assuming my list above was hard-followed (which is NOT recommended, because #constantreassessment, but it's how I currently stand), that means the most likely outcome if the game isn't solved until F3 is a sprityo lynch.

sprityo

Do everything you can to wow us with your town feathers please. I need it. I need to find you as town.

I'm not gonna play exceptional, because im not an exceptional person. I'll play mafia like i always play mafia, however i want

(but sure ill do my best)

[sprityo]

Also not only is this an awesome thing but I am suddenly realizing it perfectly fits a musical representation of Jaybot the analytical robot just processing posts as matter straight into his brain and then his interactive analyses come out the other end.

MP, we have a music forum..... stop inflating your post count ffs