Shockheaded Peter Mafia [ENDGAME]

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Based on interactions with Lunalee:


colonialbob
novaselinenever

AudreyTheTattleTail
nutella
leetic

speedchuck
Elohcin
Sloonei

Jackofhearts2005
reywaS
sabie12

Consider the bottom six a current POE.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

With one mafioso lynched, we find ourselves in a 10 vs. 2 scenario. To be safe, let's project a civilian death this night phase and in every future night phase. That leaves our numbers as follows:

N1: 10 vs. 2
D2: 9 vs. 2

How many mislynches do we have available? If one occurs on Day 2, proceed:

N2: 8 vs. 2
D3: 7 vs. 2, mislynch
N3: 6 vs. 2
D4: 5 vs. 2, mislynch
N4: 4 vs. 2
D5: 3 vs. 2

We'd have three mislynches before arriving at a 3 vs. 2 LyLo. There are two mafia members remaining. 3 + 2 = 5 ---> A correctly assembled POE pool of 5 players (meaning it contains both remaining mafia members) wins the game.

So give me your five.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

My POE above contained six, meaning I'd need to remove one. Presently I would be most comfortable removing Elohcin. Continued dialogue and analysis will always be necessary though. Nothing is cemented.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

[mention]leetic[/mention], it appears our chief point of disagreement is with Jack. I suspect there was at least one bus vote on the Luna wagon, and he's my lead contender as such. speedchuck is also plausible. Should you review my own analysis on Jack just now, please let me know if you disagree with any of my conclusions.

Otherwise I think we're mostly on the same page (particularly regarding Audrey, which is a nice read to clear up).

[novaselinenever]

The interactions of Lunalee and novaselinenever

Spoiler: show

Haha you guys trying to accuse me because I said hi its gonna be a good group? I didn't have any chatter because no one was on to chat with when I was here. My accusation is nova and Jay must be teammates trying to stir the pot together and get all the suspicions off of them.

Nevermind Jay and Nova. Seems like they are strong-arming everyone at the door with their check-in posts. It's simply a power show.

Luna dismissed nova and I for our early attacks on the game thread. I actually don't think this reflects any particular way on nova. I can come up with equally compelling arguments either way.

Spoiler: show

I won't bother updating the 2/2 thing I was doing unless someone specifically requests it. I had no immediate plans other than squeezing reads out of people.

I'm lazy about mafia right now, and could really benefit from someone squeezing reads out of me.

Then you should provide them. I will squeeze.

Two people you trust and two people you don't trust: go.

Don't trust:
novaselinever, mostly for his "got one" response to sabie's post, and him playing Jay's overly-excited puppy dog on day 0.
colonialbob, suspects Jay for acting very town and getting the ball rolling, inserts himself into nutella and speed's dispute with a lot a almost "fake" sounding questions, and has an issue with Jay typing "rey" instead of "nova"

Trust:
JackofHearts2005, yes he has fun, but he's getting down to business quick.
sabie. From my (limited) experience with sabie, this looks like prime town-sabie content.

nova was a "don't trust" in her 2/2 reads. The yellow portion there is a pretty severe discrediting of nova's efforts, and it echoes speedchuck's assertion that nova was just buddying me around. I think that reflects well on him.

Spoiler: show

NOVASELINENENVER
COLONIALBOB
AUDREYTHETATTLETAIL

BAD
BAD
BAD

Bad GTH read. It's consistent and means little to me.

Spoiler: show

Okay, so my vote. I don't think I have even mentioned nova this game. I have had a bad gut read on him but haven't said anything since it isn't concrete. I like to have reasons to back up my feelings.

Wait! Why is nova voting for himself? He has been really strange this game. If he wants to vote for himself, he can get one from me too. Thank you for giving me a concrete reason to vote you, nova.

linki, with Jay. That is exactly what I thought. Glad to know I read you right And I would say you don't care abotu Chuck's alignment because you know it won't hurt civs that much to get a mislynch Day 1. Even when civs win, they usually have a misllynch Day1.

there is a lot more linki...I'll read it in a minute.

You know, I wanted to vote nova, but him voting for himself just sort of dumped water on any desire I had to vote for him. I still might do it anyways.

Who cares if he voted for himself? This looks like a mafioso who is timid about taking advantage of the goofy self-voting civilian.

Spoiler: show

*scribbles notes in classroom notebook about immediacy of wagon shift*

I believe nova began the shift, and it looks like he has "friends" on board with it.

When I made note of how quickly the wagon shifted from speedchuck to Luna, she blamed nova. She could have as easily blamed me, but I am a harder accusation to justify. "Friends" is a vague pile of whatever too, and I have a feeling there's at least one teammate among those "friends", whoever they are.

nova gives a perturbed expression in response to Luna calling him my puppy dog.

Spoiler: show

JAGGEDJIMMYJAY
LUNALEE

Good
Good

nova gives her the good GTH read. Okay.

I'm disappointed in myself.

Spoiler: show

I feel the weakest about my decisions on Audrey and Luna. They are both basically 50/50 to me.

I'm getting some tiny Megaman vibes from Luna tbh. The poo throw technique is somewhat similar.

I don't really know what this means. What did this mean, nova?

The way she goes about her suspicions. She throws poo to see what sticks and mess up her facts. She's quick to go back on them and plays ignorant. Also avoids interaction when she's prodded about substantiating vague stuff descriptions like "opportunistic" and "fake"

Spoiler: show

Someone tell me why speedchuck is a civilian.

He's probably not civ, and we won't realize it until the end after he's steam-rolled town. No, I'm not still bitter.

Fearmongering

Halfway, kinda, sorta an accusation. Whatever.

Why are you so obsessed with me?

Late day nova compilation of Luna posts - "This is bad."

Spoiler: show

[VOTE: Lunalee] aubergine

Actually Nova I wouldn't follow you on Leetic, I've never played with them before and would not lynch them D1 for that reason.

Change of plans. Luna it is.

He voted Luna and brought speedchuck with him.

Also brought Jack

~~~

I still think nova is fine.

[novaselinenever]

Based on interactions with Lunalee:


colonialbob
novaselinenever

AudreyTheTattleTail
nutella
leetic

speedchuck
Elohcin
Sloonei

Jackofhearts2005
reywaS
sabie12

Consider the bottom six a current POE.

Leetic is too high

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Leetic is too high

Tell me about your suspicion of him.

[novaselinenever]

Leetic is too high

Tell me about your suspicion of him.

They stem from our butting heads about "defensiveness" and "information". I find his use of them very cheap, not unlike Luna and "opportunistic". I've been reading his posts and enjoying his efforts, however they haven't fully clicked with me. I haven't had that moment where I read a player's posts, understand their thoughts in and I go "that's a civilian right there". I get a certain calculating vibe from them.

I think his EoD posts reflects poorly with Luna's flip. Reads to me like he was guiding Luna through the thread and telling her "give me a reason to not vote you". His angle of Luna voting Jack to tie the vote is pretty weak, it's as if he didn't want to completely ignore the discussion around her and took an easy way in, and easy way out as not to be in the discussion of "who bussed Luna/which vote looks worse?".

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Leetic is too high

Tell me about your suspicion of him.

They stem from our butting heads about "defensiveness" and "information". I find his use of them very cheap, not unlike Luna and "opportunistic". I've been reading his posts and enjoying his efforts, however they haven't fully clicked with me. I haven't had that moment where I read a player's posts, understand their thoughts in and I go "that's a civilian right there". I get a certain calculating vibe from them.

I think his EoD posts reflects poorly with Luna's flip. Reads to me like he was guiding Luna through the thread and telling her "give me a reason to not vote you". His angle of Luna voting Jack to tie the vote is pretty weak, it's as if he didn't want to completely ignore the discussion around her and took an easy way in, and easy way out as not to be in the discussion of "who bussed Luna/which vote looks worse?".

I'll think over the second paragraph there. It warrants consideration. I'd also like to know what other non-leetic players think of this and of leetic in general.

Regarding the "information" bit, does Audrey's alignment have bearing for you on that front? He was resisting her lynch after all, and I think she looks good now. Does that mean something to you?

[Lunalee]

13 mentions, all from JJJ

[JaggedJimmyJay]

[novaselinenever]

Haha you guys trying to accuse me because I said hi its gonna be a good group? I didn't have any chatter because no one was on to chat with when I was here. My accusation is nova and Jay must be teammates trying to stir the pot together and get all the suspicions off of them.

Nevermind Jay and Nova. Seems like they are strong-arming everyone at the door with their check-in posts. It's simply a power show.

I've sent this post to the lab

[novaselinenever]

Leetic is too high

Tell me about your suspicion of him.

They stem from our butting heads about "defensiveness" and "information". I find his use of them very cheap, not unlike Luna and "opportunistic". I've been reading his posts and enjoying his efforts, however they haven't fully clicked with me. I haven't had that moment where I read a player's posts, understand their thoughts in and I go "that's a civilian right there". I get a certain calculating vibe from them.

I think his EoD posts reflects poorly with Luna's flip. Reads to me like he was guiding Luna through the thread and telling her "give me a reason to not vote you". His angle of Luna voting Jack to tie the vote is pretty weak, it's as if he didn't want to completely ignore the discussion around her and took an easy way in, and easy way out as not to be in the discussion of "who bussed Luna/which vote looks worse?".

I'll think over the second paragraph there. It warrants consideration. I'd also like to know what other non-leetic players think of this and of leetic in general.

Regarding the "information" bit, does Audrey's alignment have bearing for you on that front? He was resisting her lynch after all, and I think she looks good now. Does that mean something to you?

It does. If Audrey were to be bad, my point doesn't stand. The fatalistic tone of his post, and the its context (a mostly joke/half-serious proposal from bob out of the blue) isn't really akin to teammate defense.

[nutella]

My POE above contained six, meaning I'd need to remove one. Presently I would be most comfortable removing Elohcin. Continued dialogue and analysis will always be necessary though. Nothing is cemented.

I arrive at the same POE. sabie, sloonei, rey, jack, and speed --that's roughly my order from least to most bad.

[nutella]

I did really like leetic's work on Jack, and that led me more in the direction of speed/luna and not jack, but Jay's interactive read of Jack pushed me back in the other direction. I think probably one but not both of Jack and Speed is bad. I think Rey figured importantly in my earlier thought process in relation to one or both of them, I'll have to sort out if I think he's only compatible with one

[nutella]

Hmmm I actually like nova's assessment of leetic's EOD posts. Isn't that sort of what he himself accused Jack of?

[nutella]

Okay wait I think I've got it. We're looking at either a Jack/Leetic team or a Speed/Rey team. Place your bets folks.

[reywaS]

im civvie as fuck so....i place my bet on the other one that doesnt include me. I have 200 bucks on it.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Okay wait I think I've got it. We're looking at either a Jack/Leetic team or a Speed/Rey team. Place your bets folks.

Can you expand on the rationale that leads you to those two specific pairs?

[nutella]

Leetic is softly pushing the narrative that speed is bad and jack is town, despite having voted for jack when he backed off of luna (choosing between two teammates to appear like he "didn't care if jack was lynched" as he said of luna? idk maybe I'm stretching this) and I think there was something else. Also there was something more to the speed/rey part of my speculation but I forget, other than that jack and speed are fairly anti-aligned and I think one of them is bad and I think rey looks pretty sketchy and also seemed anti-aligned with jack for some reason?

[nutella]

will he become a suspect for you on day 2 or will you assume he was just wrong and let him keep his civvie civvington badge for another day?

Why are you focused on this now?

Yeah I don't like Rey's deal here. Does he know speed is innocent? Looking to set up the blame game on Jay to distract from the real targets? It's somewhat bold to try and set up a Jay mislynch, bit maybe the boldness is the point.

you know what is hilarious? I said to myself earlier, "If speedchuck does flip civ I wonder who will be the one to suggest that I KNEW speedchuck is good because I'm bad?" Somehow it doesn't surprise me that it was you, Fredo.

Oh but then there was this whole thing. Hmmm. I did like the idea that rey had tmi on speed. Maybe that's what he wanted us to think though but actually I can't find the reason I thought I had for the speed/rey thing, maybe my thought process was more just a narrowing down of my POE possibilities/potential teammate pairings.

[Sloonei]

Okay, so my vote. I don't think I have even mentioned nova this game. I have had a bad gut read on him but haven't said anything since it isn't concrete. I like to have reasons to back up my feelings.

Wait! Why is nova voting for himself? He has been really strange this game. If he wants to vote for himself, he can get one from me too. Thank you for giving me a concrete reason to vote you, nova.

linki, with Jay. That is exactly what I thought. Glad to know I read you right And I would say you don't care abotu Chuck's alignment because you know it won't hurt civs that much to get a mislynch Day 1. Even when civs win, they usually have a misllynch Day1.

there is a lot more linki...I'll read it in a minute.

I’ve liked all of elohcin’s posts until this one.

[Sloonei]

Okay, so my vote. I don't think I have even mentioned nova this game. I have had a bad gut read on him but haven't said anything since it isn't concrete. I like to have reasons to back up my feelings.

Wait! Why is nova voting for himself? He has been really strange this game. If he wants to vote for himself, he can get one from me too. Thank you for giving me a concrete reason to vote you, nova.

linki, with Jay. That is exactly what I thought. Glad to know I read you right And I would say you don't care abotu Chuck's alignment because you know it won't hurt civs that much to get a mislynch Day 1. Even when civs win, they usually have a misllynch Day1.

there is a lot more linki...I'll read it in a minute.

You know, I wanted to vote nova, but him voting for himself just sort of dumped water on any desire I had to vote for him. I still might do it anyways.

[Sloonei]

Well it reminds me of in the socky game when like two or three times sloonei and/or I tried to propose a different lunch and should have stuck with the original/were right the first time. I'm staying on speed. Call it recency bias but I don't like the sudden wagon.

We did this twice and were wrong both times, then resisted the urge to do it a third time when we would have been right. It was a really strong finish.

[Sloonei]

Nova looks great with luna’s flip.

I also give leetic a couple of townie points purely on the surface of his posts. He’s (relatively) new in town, but is puttinf forth a strong effort and making sure his voice is heard. That’s not going to lock him in as a town read, but it’s something I consider.

I feel like reywas is my strongest suspect coming out of this lynch. I’ll take a second look to see if I can identify why that is.

[Sloonei]

Also, is speedchuck playing mafia without having seen the Godfather? Like, what the heck?

[Sloonei]

I am on my phone and don’t feel like navigating the perils of a multi-quote post, but reywas’s mini interrogation of Jay seemed a little unmotivated. He was asking questions, but I didn’t get the impression he was really invested in the answers. His “what will people think if...” census felt particularly aimless.

Also, this was his contribution as the vote change whacke-iness was unfolding:

what a weird day 1

Not the best look.

[Sloonei]

Then again, he might be more inclined toward being an influential force if his teammate is plumetting toward a lynch. I don’t have a clear sense of how exactly the voting played out.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Then again, he might be more inclined toward being an influential force if his teammate is plumetting toward a lynch. I don’t have a clear sense of how exactly the voting played out.

The speedchuck wagon had swelled to 4 votes at its peak I believe. A few others had 2 each, including Jack and nova. I decided to move my vote from speedchuck to Lunalee:

[VOTE: Lunalee] aubergine

This made it 3-2-2-2 with speechuck in front (colonialbob had voted Luna first about 2.5 hours earlier). Then about 15-20 minutes later, nova moved to Luna and an avalanche followed him. I recommend you review the progression starting from my vote.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

leetic had voted Luna to make it 6-3 over Jack, but later moved his vote back to Jack leaving us at the 5-4 finish.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

[mention]Sloonei[/mention], I'd really like to hear what you think of Jack given the new information.

[Sloonei]

Sloonei, I'd really like to hear what you think of Jack given the new information.

I thought he looked better in a few instances, but nothing locked him in as a town read. He remains on my radar, but probably not my first choice.

[nutella]

Also, is speedchuck playing mafia without having seen the Godfather? Like, what the heck?

I've never seen it either. I thought rey was calling me fettuccine alfredo.

[Sloonei]

Also, is speedchuck playing mafia without having seen the Godfather? Like, what the heck?

I've never seen it either. I thought rey was calling me fettuccine alfredo.

Whacke

[reywaS]

Nova looks great with luna’s flip.

I also give leetic a couple of townie points purely on the surface of his posts. He’s (relatively) new in town, but is puttinf forth a strong effort and making sure his voice is heard. That’s not going to lock him in as a town read, but it’s something I consider.

I feel like reywas is my strongest suspect coming out of this lynch. I’ll take a second look to see if I can identify why that is.

sling that poo now. maybe it'll stick later?

[reywaS]

Man, I'm tellin ya, that pimp trick gangsta click album gonna be that fire. Watch what I tell ya.

[novaselinenever]

Speedchuck:

>Luna is good on gth
>Nova is bad on gth
>Votes Nova
>Follows Nova's vote on Luna

Nova:

[colonialbob]

Also, is speedchuck playing mafia without having seen the Godfather? Like, what the heck?

I've never seen it either. I thought rey was calling me fettuccine alfredo.

Speedchuck/Nutella confirmed mafia

They haven't seen the Godfather because they are living it

[speedchuck]

Also, is speedchuck playing mafia without having seen the Godfather? Like, what the heck?

I'm missing a lot of movies.

[speedchuck]

Speedchuck:

>Luna is good on gth
>Nova is bad on gth
>Votes Nova
>Follows Nova's vote on Luna

Nova:

I had my reasons.

The reasons being self-pres, but still. Reasons.

[speedchuck]

im civvie as fuck so....i place my bet on the other one that doesnt include me. I have 200 bucks on it.

I'm too stingy to bet, but yeah, going with this pick. Reywas is a good dude.

[speedchuck]

speedchuck
nutella
colonialbob
novaselinenever
reywaS
AudreyTheTattleTail

Elohcin
Jackofhearts2005
leetic
Sloonei
sabie12

[JaggedJimmyJay]

speedchuck
nutella
colonialbob
novaselinenever
reywaS
AudreyTheTattleTail

Elohcin
Jackofhearts2005
leetic
Sloonei
sabie12

lol @ me

Why are reywaS removed and leetic included?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

One needn't give a "read" on JaggedJimmyJay. It is absurdity. He merely IS. There is no "judgment" or "interpretation" of JaggedJimmyJay. There is only acceptance.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

It would seem that a reasonably comfortable 5-player POE is not quite attainable yet, so we still have a lot of work to do. The game can easily be lost if that is not resolved. The pace of Day 1 needs to continue through Night 1 and onward.

[colonialbob]

It would seem that a reasonably comfortable 5-player POE is not quite attainable yet, so we still have a lot of work to do. The game can easily be lost if that is not resolved. The pace of Day 1 needs to continue through Night 1 and onward.

Yep. I'm finding it hard to reduce below 6 or 7 POE. Hopefully today I'll have the chance to get some thoughts into the thread, I had some posts jump out during a quick reread this morning but didn't have time to put pen to paper, so to speak.

My gut still says Luna being bad is a good look for speedchuck, although not good enough to remove him from the pool.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Yep. I'm finding it hard to reduce below 6 or 7 POE. Hopefully today I'll have the chance to get some thoughts into the thread, I had some posts jump out during a quick reread this morning but didn't have time to put pen to paper, so to speak.

My gut still says Luna being bad is a good look for speedchuck, although not good enough to remove him from the pool.

I couldn't be more eager for these thoughts you speak of. My Thursday existence is for nothing else.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I think leetic looks good at face value. The interactions are questionable (not terrible, but questionable). That conflict is difficult to sort.

[leetic]

One thing I found interesting is that, with my switch to the Jack wagon, votes were 4-5, meaning it would be easy for scum to flip the lynch if they wanted to. Get, for some reason, they didn't.

There are a few potential conclusions that can be drawn from this:

1. Scum was already on the Jack wagon, and thus couldn't switch.
2. Scum wasn't around during EOD.
3. Jack himself is scum.

If conclusion 1 is correct, that's not a good look for reywaS, and likewise with sabie and conclusion 2. Thus, I think either of them would be good targets for D2.

[reywaS]

I have a gif for all this bogus suspicion of me....


wait for it