Coronavirus Mafia [ENDGAME]

[speedchuck]

I'm looking forward to speedchuck coming back in the morning to all this. I think it's like 50/50 whether he fully agrees with me on juliets or fully decides I'm scum.

Why y'all gotta do this when I'm asleep.

[speedchuck]

Idk why mafia has to be on Sig wagon over mine? Both were close to as viable IIRC.

Maybe that’s my bias of TRing more people on Sig than me tho

Mafia had to go all the way to Sig or they'd still be on a teammate wagon. Obviously.

(I'm sorta kidding here. I have a lot of work to do before I finalize my reads today.)

[speedchuck]

Not to get all hubrisy with my reads again but I really think I'm right lol. I look at the player list and feel like I have legitimately good reasons to believe most of them are town to the point that I think if we lynch juliets and the correct one of wilgy/sloonei, that's just game over we win. I keep wanting to second guess that because i really shouldn't be so confident in all the town reasons after what happened with MR, but most of them are based on much more substantial evidence now and I'm left with an easy POE. It can really be that simple sometimes, right?

Day flippin' 2: "Welp, almost everyone is town, let's just lynch lurkers I guess. I'm pretty sure all my townreads are right despite the debacle earlier and there's no reason to waffle on them."

[speedchuck]

I mean I get what you’re saying but I think normal logic may not entirely apply given that radishes wasn’t even around to self prez and we had/have two non entities. Seems entirely possible that in a 3 scum world a more active partner would feel compelled to vote radishes, especially if one of the non entities is mafia, yeah?

Like I’m not pushing that world but I think it’s entirely plausible.

... says the guy who self-prezzed on MR

[speedchuck]

I'm beginning to think Nanook is town just because he keeps blindly self-implicating over the wagonomics.

[juliets]

I'm going to have to leave in about 10 minutes, if anyone has questions for this morning. I will be back sometime after noon.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

DDL's outdated catchup posts are going to be fun to read

Time for me to catch up more and post less.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Hmm LC is quite compatible with MR. I could be wrong about him too.

I see it differently, my original case on MR was that he spend 5 posts coming up with new and exciting ways to set himself up to vote LC later.

[speedchuck]

Alright, I'm going to take a shower and put my glasses on.

I think I've missed some post in my sporadic catch-up but the main point is that Jack's take is good. Nutella or Juliets are scum, and not both. Juliets defensive post a page or two back was full of what I'd consider AtE. "I wouldn't have signed up if I knew the end time" "You've been wrong before, you desire a town lynch" etc.
Juliets did make a point just after this that DDL is almost definitely town for coming down hard on MR. I think I like that and agree with it, though if nutella is scum I'd be worried about a pre-planned bus. It's not like DDL has gone after much of anyone else.

But on the other side of things, nutella's posts about 'I am definitely right this time so right I don't need to second guess myself' are pingy, especially with her usual predisposition toward waffling.

I probably scumread Juliets more between the two, though, as I trust myself more there. I don't know how many times I've come at nutella when we've both been town.

Jury's out on nanook and MP until I can refresh myself.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

I'm absolutely mentally and emotionally obliterated, but I'm here to catch up at least.

Oh, boy...

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Secret vote is perfect for resolving a slot like sloonei/poison. Idk about you guys but I’m going to have a very hard time ever letting that slot get to LYLO, and since everyone is apparently so queasy about using a TK on a non entity slot this way lets them get over it a bit easier maybe?

Idk but I feel like two consecutive days of nothing from that slot needs to be resolved. Ironically I think sloonei is the person that would most agree with me

I actually agree with this. Either that or the wilgy slot. The secret lynch is basically a vig, in the sense that it doesn't give us many useful reactions from its lynch since they are not posting.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Currently like


Speedchuck
Nanook
Tony
Hyena
LC

Sloonei
DDL
Wilgy

Juliets
MP
Nutella

Juliets or Nutella flipping scum will probably send the other way up my readlist.

can you give me two sentences on LC?

LC feels engaged in a good way following Radish's death. Feels like a townie who became invested following a score for his team, not a wolf who feels like he suddenly needs to get invested after a score against his team, but I could be wrong.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Currently like


Speedchuck
Nanook
Tony
Hyena
LC

Sloonei
DDL
Wilgy

Juliets
MP
Nutella

Juliets or Nutella flipping scum will probably send the other way up my readlist.

Yeah, but that second tier from the bottom is really just laying lower than the main group.

Well yes but actually no. I have a specific reason to townread everyone in the top group and scumread everyone in the bottom group. I don't feel much about anything of the people in the middle group, or Juliets less wagonomics.

I think Sloonei is less likely to replace out as a wolf after his teammate was daykilled, especially if one of his partners is in Wilgy, Juliets, MP or Nutella.

[Jackofhearts2005]

I mean I get what you’re saying but I think normal logic may not entirely apply given that radishes wasn’t even around to self prez and we had/have two non entities. Seems entirely possible that in a 3 scum world a more active partner would feel compelled to vote radishes, especially if one of the non entities is mafia, yeah?

Like I’m not pushing that world but I think it’s entirely plausible.

Fair point.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

I am honestly speechless. My MR townread was one of the strongest convictions I had. I honestly have no idea what to think of this game now. I'm at square one.

Alright, so you're lock town for the foreseeable future, so that's pretty cool.

Also I'm already back to thinking you're town again.

God damn it I can't just townread everyone now. I just feel so lost. I think I need to step away and come back to the game with fresh eyes. I thought I had it nearly solved and then my reads were all turned on their heads.

These are the most bullshit undeserving townreads I’ve ever seen.

Man.

Feels like I've never mindmelded with Jack before this game.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

[VOTE: JackofHearts2005] aubergine

I’m mechanically cleared.

“Nice try.”

As much as I hate to admit, this is probably true. Like, you could have pulled that as a gambit but if that's the case you deserve to win lol. I really really really want to think you are bad here because you're being so boneheadedly wrong about me, but I have to take the role thing into account and it just makes a hell of a lot more sense if you're town.



Juliets is bad though trust me. I did my homework.

Why do you hate to admit it?

It's fantastic that we have a confirmed townie.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Nutella seems really bothered by town winning this game.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

The two things bothering nutella the most:

The fact we killed a mafioso.

And the fact we have a confirmed civ.

[Jackofhearts2005]

I like these posts by DDL. He was onto MR pretty early. I don't read them as distancing because I don't see a reason to distance at that time.

Did Nanook vote for me?

Yes, Nanook voted for you, and he still is!

Extra ugly, due to non-call in the thread.

I want to townread LC for not noticing a vote on him.

Either that or he's wolf/wolf with Nook.

"I want to townread LC".

Then do it. Townread him. Or not.

read: compare this to my other scum game which is nothing like this one

You are being very uncharitable sir. I'll have you know my town games are nothing like this one either.

But i wanted to know what nanook thought of that

Tony and Nanook might be mafia partners. +112, that might be the scum team right there.

Dang you got us. Where’s the resign button

I wasn't very serious about the LC/Nook thing, but actually this post pings me. I feel the 'haha guess you got me' thing is such a scum thing to say here.

"I wasn't serious"

"this post actually pings me"

Then uses a superlative in the next post, to make it sound like he's sure LC is bad.

I wonder which over-discusser of 'spew' is the wolf?

Love this thought. Another townie point for LC.



Caveat: I've read LC wrong every game I've played with him.

Caveat: I'm full of shit.

[VOTE: Master Radishes] aubergine

It's okay to be unsure about someone's alignment, but go ahead and say you are unsure. This feel like playing both sides at once.

Now it's time for you people to explain why everyone and their dog is townreading Radishes because I don't see it.

Alternatively, let's lynch him.

Language is everything.

If you are sure LC is town say that. Don't add caveats. Don't theorize about him being w/w with someone then say you are "not very serious about it". The way you did it leaves it open for you to vote LC if other people do that later.

Yeah, these do look pretty good for DDL.

[Jackofhearts2005]

The two things bothering nutella the most:

The fact we killed a mafioso.

And the fact we have a confirmed civ.

Hey yeah let's lynch Nutella.

[Jackofhearts2005]

That's a fucking mindset slip if I ever saw one.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

112 suspected MP7:

Spoiler: show

MP7 random D1 feels reads whatever man

towncore
112
Hyena
juliets
nutella
speed

probably town
DDL
Tony

Upper POE
DrWilgy
Jack
LC
MR

Lower POE
Nanook
Poison Chan
sig

I think? Ordered across tiers but not within, by the way.

Maybe I do have more reads than I thought. I'm certainly wrong about something or multiple things or all of it, but whatever, I think this is what I got. Trusting my gut for now. Fuck tinfoil.

Nute could still be right about mplus but I honestly don't think anyone gets as angry as he did in a contest like this unless he's town.

That towncore post had an awful tone fwiw and it's what sparked this post.

Alright then.

I never kill 112 in our first game together anywhere, let alone on this site. I would have vehemently argued with my scum partners about this if I were scum, and very likely I would have gotten my way. Believe it or not, up to you.

You weren't even online during the night phase.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Speedchuck
Nanook
Tony
DDL
Hyena
LC

Sloonei
Juliets
Wilgy

MP
Nutella

[juliets]

Alright, I'm going to take a shower and put my glasses on.

I think I've missed some post in my sporadic catch-up but the main point is that Jack's take is good. Nutella or Juliets are scum, and not both. Juliets defensive post a page or two back was full of what I'd consider AtE. "I wouldn't have signed up if I knew the end time" "You've been wrong before, you desire a town lynch" etc.
Juliets did make a point just after this that DDL is almost definitely town for coming down hard on MR. I think I like that and agree with it, though if nutella is scum I'd be worried about a pre-planned bus. It's not like DDL has gone after much of anyone else.

But on the other side of things, nutella's posts about 'I am definitely right this time so right I don't need to second guess myself' are pingy, especially with her usual predisposition toward waffling.

I probably scumread Juliets more between the two, though, as I trust myself more there. I don't know how many times I've come at nutella when we've both been town.

Jury's out on nanook and MP until I can refresh myself.

I'm not sure why you call me saying the EODs are too late for me an "appeal to emotion". Appeals to emotion try to emotionally manipulate people into not voting for the person ate'ing. Me saying the EODs are too late for my life style is not trying to appeal to people's emotions. It's saying I'm personally not going to take it hard if you decide to lynch me. It is also not an appeal to emotion to say "You've been wrong before". I mean, that is just a statement of fact. And finally, even though I wasn't ate'ing, if I was how would that make me bad? Do you have any other reasons for scum reading me?

I am not scum. Here are some posts from GOC from people who know my scum game because they've been scum with me. SVS was civ and Tranq was 3rd party. I know people have a hard time reading me but nobody knows my game better than these two:

And noone asked me, but I think Jules is town based on how she answered a direct question. Her activity level is not generally alignment indicative. If anything I think she might post more when bad because she worries about being a low poster blendy baddie.

I find this post reassuring, tbh. Epignosis. Bad Juliets is nervous Juliets, especially when she is in the spotlight and being pressed. I don't even remotely see that here. I see vaguely annoyed Juliets, which is civ Juliets in my book. Unless there is a big change, I won't be voting for her anytime soon.

Ted, i've played a lot of games with juliets. I can't claim to always read her correctly, but in this game she definately sounds civ. As SVS said, bad juliets gets nervous. I'm not seeing that here.

I have to go now but will be back this afternoon. I probably will not make it until EOD though I will try. I want to have sorted who my votes should go to before it gets to be 10:00.

[TonyStarkPrime]

I always suspect Juliets. I’m right sometimes.
I don’t think it’s MP come at me Hyena.

Tony, when were you right to suspect me?

You were scum in Girl Genius, right?

[speedchuck]

Yeah I'd lynch nutella now.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Alright then.

I never kill 112 in our first game together anywhere, let alone on this site. I would have vehemently argued with my scum partners about this if I were scum, and very likely I would have gotten my way. Believe it or not, up to you.

You weren't even online during the night phase.

[juliets]

Last thing, I'm moving DDL and Long Con into my "won't lynch today list".

linki: Yes Tony I was in Gril Genius so if you were there it answers my question.

[Jackofhearts2005]

I wanted to react with this gif of Jaime Fox being like "OH SHIT" but I couldn't find a copy without the caption and since you could read his lips easily, I thought it weakened the gif.

[speedchuck]

If [mention]nutella[/mention] wants to strengthen her case on Juliets/MasterRadish, she'd compare the little they said about each other to the little they said about everyone else.

Juliets hasn't made many firm posts against or for people this game, that I recall anyway. MR might be the same. Who's to say that this method doesn't condemn half the playerlist? It was only D1, after all. These things work better on later days.

(But you can go for it if you want to investigate other ISOs. I won't have time today. My weekends are busy, and COVID shifted my work schedule weirdly.)

[speedchuck]

Or, at least, Juliets on D1 didn't make many firm posts. The previous post was not meant to be a slight on you, Juliets.

[Jackofhearts2005]

I think Juliets not wanting to vote for me on my anniversary is townie js.

[Jackofhearts2005]

On lynching multiple players.

Past strategy used: Lynch a suspect and a quiet player
Outcome: Quiet player is town but hey, that's what usually happens when you POE lynch quiet players and at least you didn't waste a day on it.

Past strategy used: Lynch two top suspects with teammate equity
Outcome: Both are town shit

Proposed idea: Lynch two players that are both suspicious and likely not teamed like Nutella and Juliets
Hypothetical Outcome: Probably one wolf lynch and one town lynch and even on the off chance both are town, we don't waste tomorrow lynching the counterwagon

Proposed idea: Lynch two top suspects with teammate equity because I feel confident enough Nutella is scum to just lynch her and MP
Hypothetical Outcome: We could just win yea

[Dragon D. Luffy]

I hate the nutella/MP interactions with every fiber of my being.

There are like 20 different possibilities for pocking in each page of it.

If they are both town I'll eat my hat.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

pocketing*

[Jackofhearts2005]

Hey MR, what are your current reads and/or POE? Sorry if this question is answered somewhere else.

Probs town: LC, 112, Speed, maybe Jack based off recent posts, maybe Hyena?

Not lynching per activity: PC, Wilgy

Inner PoE: TSP, DDL, sig

Outer PoE: Nook, nutella, I guess Juliets (not SRing her really, just don't know what her scum game looks like), making my mind up on you still


Ask me in a few minutes and I'll probably shuffle my PoE around.

Link: jfc MP stop posting

So if my reads are all correct, Radishes puts all townies in his towngroup and all townies in his inner POE. Leaves his teammates in the outer POE/inactivity groups where they can be bused or saved as needed. Wouldn't necessarily expect no teammates in the probably town group but I really don't see any of those players being wolves.

[Jackofhearts2005]

I hate the nutella/MP interactions with every fiber of my being.

There are like 20 different possibilities for pocking in each page of it.

If they are both town I'll eat my hat.

Yeah yeah one of them should be calling out the other for the pocket attempt.

Especially after when I pointed out MP's reason for townreading Nutella was bad, he was pretty much like "fair enough."

[Dragon D. Luffy]

MP makes a good point though, if you think the way I locked MR town makes sense as a way I would treat a mafia teammate, I don't know what to say about your nutellameter lmao. If it's that beyond repair you might not be able to trade it in for anything better than a glorfindar.

[Jackofhearts2005]

I hate the nutella/MP interactions with every fiber of my being.

There are like 20 different possibilities for pocking in each page of it.

If they are both town I'll eat my hat.

Yeah yeah one of them should be calling out the other for the pocket attempt.

Especially after when I pointed out MP's reason for townreading Nutella was bad, he was pretty much like "fair enough."

But they're not. Cause they're teamed. MP's read on Nutella is fake and Nutella readily accepts it because she's not interested in reading MP either.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Also, having known nutella for ~10 years now, I will give you all a little secret about the way I read her.

If she's at some point in the game annoyed the ever loving fuck out of me, she's probably town.

I couldn't tell that from your posts.

It seems the two of you are BFFs.

[Jackofhearts2005]

This post is mainly for reference (mine if no one else’s):

With just a few minutes left, MP7 & Nute created a 4/4/4 split:

MR – DDL, speed, Hyena, Nook
Nook – LC, sig, 112, nutella
Sig – juliets, TSP, Jack, MP7

(To the best of my knowledge those votes are in chronological order too.)

And just before that moment:

MR (4) – DDL, speed, Hyena, Nook
Nook (3) – LC, sig, 112
Sig (3) – juliets, TSP, Jack
Jack (2) - nutella, MP7

And just before that moment:

MR (4) – DDL, speed, Hyena, Nook
Nook (3) – LC, sig, 112
Sig (3) – juliets, TSP, Jack
Jack (2) - nutella, MP7

Nook is not w/w with either Nutella or MP7. If they were scumbuddies they wouldn't tie the vote - they'd just keep the status quo or find an excuse to join my wagon. There's no more than one wolf in that grouping, and maybe none. (I'm also assuming MP7 and Nute aren't wolfing together in that last minute vote switch situation.)

This is a bit of an odd series of posts if the team is Radishes/Nutella/MP because he's basically calling out a save attempt.

That said, he uses this analysis to say that MP and Nutella aren't teamed and that they aren't aligned with Nanook, which means that if Nanook is mafia, we shouldn't be looking at MP and Nutella.

So at first I read this as a good look for Nutella and MP but the more I look at it, the more I find it's a bad one.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Like unflipped associative reads aside, Juliets is null. I read those posts and they don’t even move my Juliets needle. They give you a confident scumread on her. That smells to me.

I think Hyena believes his MP read even if it’s wrong.

I’m inclined to think Nutella doesn’t believe her Juliets read.

In the event I find myself shaken by flips not going how I plan on them going, I lose confidence. So if I was in Nutella’s shoes and I did find those posts suspicious, I’d be like “Sooooo maybe Juliets is scum. Idk. It’s the best I’ve got” not “I am confident in my scumread of Juliets so I’m keeping all the townreads I have even though I just lost my shit over an incorrect townread.”

It doesn’t feel like an actual town mindset.

Supposing Nutella is scum with MP. MP comes charging in. Nutella gives out an easy townread and then pushes on one of the null quartet off flimsy shit. That may not be what we’re seeing but that scenario feels consistent with Nutella’s actions and mindset in a way her being town doesn’t.

Or she’s scum and MP isn’t and figures she isn’t getting the lynch, accepts her pocket and shifts elsewhere. Also not necessarily the case but consistent.

This is the most conficent nutella I've seen in years, imo.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Like unflipped associative reads aside, Juliets is null. I read those posts and they don’t even move my Juliets needle. They give you a confident scumread on her. That smells to me.

I think Hyena believes his MP read even if it’s wrong.

I’m inclined to think Nutella doesn’t believe her Juliets read.

In the event I find myself shaken by flips not going how I plan on them going, I lose confidence. So if I was in Nutella’s shoes and I did find those posts suspicious, I’d be like “Sooooo maybe Juliets is scum. Idk. It’s the best I’ve got” not “I am confident in my scumread of Juliets so I’m keeping all the townreads I have even though I just lost my shit over an incorrect townread.”

It doesn’t feel like an actual town mindset.

Supposing Nutella is scum with MP. MP comes charging in. Nutella gives out an easy townread and then pushes on one of the null quartet off flimsy shit. That may not be what we’re seeing but that scenario feels consistent with Nutella’s actions and mindset in a way her being town doesn’t.

Or she’s scum and MP isn’t and figures she isn’t getting the lynch, accepts her pocket and shifts elsewhere. Also not necessarily the case but consistent.

This is the most conficent nutella I've seen in years, imo.

An hour after losing her shit over Radishes getting daykilled, which should have killed her confidence. What restored it was a selection of like 2 Juliets posts and 2 Radishes posts.

It's fake.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

One thing that got to me is how easily she dropped her suspicion on me once I called her out on her mindmelding theory being wrong.

Nutella is kind of tricky to put a finger on.

At start, she felt like the genuine waffly ball I'm used to. But then she started going viscerally against me all day, in my town reads, scum reads and my own alignment. This risks clouding my perspective.

I think I can kind of udnerstand what is causing this, though. Nutella is one of the people in this site whose playstyle approaches mine the most. I think she was expecting to mindmeld with me, and in failing to do so, decided it's because I'm bad.

I think this is an unfair way to judge me though. Just because I play like nutella does doesn't mean I'll arrive at the same conclusions as she does. In fact, I recall the opposite happening way more often. Usually nutella is this waffly ball that is saying things I don't really agree with, even if I believe she believes in them.

Well, either that or she is bad and I let my empathy trick me into trusting her. Whatever.

This is fair. And I'm vibing slightly more with you now (there was one other post I liked) so you may move up in my estimation.

She was arguing on the basis of "DDL's playstyle is similar to mine so he should be trusting MR like I do!"

And I called BS on that, but at the same time, tried to reach out to nutella and use that to read has as a civ.

I feel like a civ nutella might kept pushing though, or at least reverted to her normal state of being on the fence. But a baddie nutella could have felt disarmed by my post, and would have backed down like she did here. It doesn't feel like she really believed in that mindmelding theory of hers.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Not to get all hubrisy with my reads again but I really think I'm right lol. I look at the player list and feel like I have legitimately good reasons to believe most of them are town to the point that I think if we lynch juliets and the correct one of wilgy/sloonei, that's just game over we win. I keep wanting to second guess that because i really shouldn't be so confident in all the town reasons after what happened with MR, but most of them are based on much more substantial evidence now and I'm left with an easy POE. It can really be that simple sometimes, right?

Yes.

It's very simple.

[VOTE: Nutella] aubergine

Let's do this.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Still not caught up but I wasn't gonna miss that cue.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Alright then.

I never kill 112 in our first game together anywhere, let alone on this site. I would have vehemently argued with my scum partners about this if I were scum, and very likely I would have gotten my way. Believe it or not, up to you.

You weren't even online during the night phase.

Ok turns out I jumped the gun and MP has quite a few posts in the night phase.

Sorry [mention]M Plus 7[/mention]

[Dragon D. Luffy]

This post is mainly for reference (mine if no one else’s):

With just a few minutes left, MP7 & Nute created a 4/4/4 split:

MR – DDL, speed, Hyena, Nook
Nook – LC, sig, 112, nutella
Sig – juliets, TSP, Jack, MP7

(To the best of my knowledge those votes are in chronological order too.)

And just before that moment:

MR (4) – DDL, speed, Hyena, Nook
Nook (3) – LC, sig, 112
Sig (3) – juliets, TSP, Jack
Jack (2) - nutella, MP7

And just before that moment:

MR (4) – DDL, speed, Hyena, Nook
Nook (3) – LC, sig, 112
Sig (3) – juliets, TSP, Jack
Jack (2) - nutella, MP7

Nook is not w/w with either Nutella or MP7. If they were scumbuddies they wouldn't tie the vote - they'd just keep the status quo or find an excuse to join my wagon. There's no more than one wolf in that grouping, and maybe none. (I'm also assuming MP7 and Nute aren't wolfing together in that last minute vote switch situation.)

This is a bit of an odd series of posts if the team is Radishes/Nutella/MP because he's basically calling out a save attempt.

That said, he uses this analysis to say that MP and Nutella aren't teamed and that they aren't aligned with Nanook, which means that if Nanook is mafia, we shouldn't be looking at MP and Nutella.

So at first I read this as a good look for Nutella and MP but the more I look at it, the more I find it's a bad one.

There is so much wine in this analysis by MR I'm almost ignoring it out of principle.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Ok caught up finally.

As much as I agree Jack's idea of lynching both MP and nutella is sexy af, I still prefer one of Sloonei or WIlgy. Because using that shot on a lurker is optimal, because it's way easier to get a consensus and because there's still a chance we are full of shit right now.

Right now I wanna vote Sloonei. I'm picking him over Wilgy cuz I'm tired of policy lynching Wilgy in this site.

MP looks kind of bad but his homungous effort looks okay. There's a good chance nutella is just playing him. Or vice-versa. There's no way they are both civ though, that interaction doesn't feel natural in 1000 years.

[Jackofhearts2005]

I'm okay with lynching Nutella and an inactive but I'll be entirely unsurprised when the inactive flips town and we move right back to MP the next day.