JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:53 am
I'm not sure I understand the nature of some of your reads then. I'm not accustomed to seeing reads based upon interactions of some sort that aren't themselves associative reads.
"X is way too confident that Y is [alignment] when they interact. Either X is a cop with a check on Y, or X is mafia with information about Y's alignment." (basically, TMI)
"X seems like they're faking their reactions when it comes to Y. The way they respond to Y's posts seems inauthentic and manipulative - I think X is scum."
These are two clear examples of of reads derived from interactions between two players that I think you will agree are perfectly legitimate. The second is actually kind of close to my read on LC. The only actual pre-flip associative read I have is my read that LC is bussing you, which is dependent on LC flipping wolf. Fair enough. We can set that aside for the moment and execute LC, and then I can look at his interactions with you with a fresh eye once he flips.
In general mafia is a game of interactions between players. Players don't make posts in a vacuum. They make those posts in response to and in the context of other people's posts. Probably 80+% of any player's posts in a game are them interacting with a player in some other way, whether it be by engaging with them, accusing them, responding to them, defending them, or so forth. (The remaining 20~% are stuff like entry posts, reads lists, and fluff.) Therefore, almost every read on a player in the game will be predicated upon reading them based on their interactions with others. What you are arguing against is
pre-flip associatives, which is a read that is entirely dependent on someone's alignment. eg. "X's behavior isn't scummy by itself, but it is scummy if and only if Y is also scum." That is a shaky case because it is conditional upon Y's flip, and if Y doesn't flip the way you think they will, then the read comes crashing down. (And if Y does flip the way you think they will, it opens up the question about whether or not you knew Y's alignment from the start and are intentionally manipulating people's view on X once Y flips.) Once again, my reads on Hally, FG and LC are not like this.
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:53 am
I wouldn't say you've encouraged paranoia. You may recall on Day 1 when I suggested you and Tony were the "tinfoil" side of my POE pool in that I figured you were town but
could make a case if I wanted to. These were the thoughts in my brain when I said that -- but I literally
didn't want to make the case. There's a couple elements of history at work here too: 1) The Syndicate has not done a great job of adhering to POE-driven civilian play lately, so I feel a need to be delicate, and 2) my reads tend to have heavy influence for better or for worse. That means the situation can spiral quickly for people I case. I don't always want that. Perhaps I'm too careful in that way.
I'm sure you'll continue to do your thing. And that's super.
If you are town I think you should be transparent and honest with your thoughts. Not to say that you should claim your full role in your first post, but if you have a suspicion on someone, I encourage you to tell everyone about it the moment you have it. The more information town has, the more likely town is to succeed. If you're worried that people will make more of a deal out of it than you think they should (eg. if it's a minor thought and you don't actually want that person run up), qualify your read by adding "so this is just a thing I noticed" at the start, and "all that said, I still think X is still broadly townie and I wouldn't want them voted up right now. I'm just leaving this here as a record of my thoughts" at the end. That stops the POE from disintegrating while allowing you to voice your thoughts in a clear and honest manner.
There's nothing that says a fake can't surpass the real thing.