Hally wrote: ↑Wed Jul 22, 2020 1:58 pm
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Wed Jul 22, 2020 7:29 am
I read through what I missed. Ask me for further commentary if you desire, but I’m going to spend my day doing life admin I’ve been putting off and then playing with my new headphones until my eardrums burst.
My reads generally remain the same. I’m ready to call iaafr town. I think my reservations mainly revolve around post limitations. When I’ve read some of his more recent posts more closely I nod along to them. On the other end, Tim is trending down. The LC townread has a strength that confuses me. And his handling of me feels opportunistic. Like, he began the game just shooting the breeze with me, then as soon as a few others voiced suspicion of me he acted like he’d been uncertain of me all along as well, even voting alongside me but making a deal out of not trusting me either.
I’m keeping my vote on Hally for now. She’s amazing at keeping a pure tone even as a wolf and I see nothing I would consider good enough yet to put her out of that range. The slot was scummy before and it could easily have been a case of RWSTFO. Her scumreads also feel cleverly opportunistic, like three people who have all faced some heat but not too much. I’m probably in confbias territory, but if she’s town I think I’ll get there eventually and I’m not there yet.
im not sure what you’re talking about re: cleverly opportunistic. i disagree with that characterization. i didn’t know what anyone’s reads on you or anyone else were when i began reading and stated my reads as they developed
i thought nut was wolfy at first, later on she became townier. i thought nanook was underwhelming but i wanna let him be and am not interested in yeeting there. i don’t find amy wolfy despite her being my counterwagon. i find colonialbob kinda wolfy even though i think i’m the only one who does so far. i find you wolfy and apparently am not alone in that atm, but i didn’t know that before i read
i’m really not sure how any of this qualifies as “cleverly opportunistic.” it’s not
Benson wrote: ↑Wed Jul 22, 2020 9:06 am
Read through Hally's posts from last night. I have many thoughts but not enough time to respond to anything specifically. Unfortunately, the bias from Scirrus' game may be completely warping how I view Hally but oh well.
For starters, I think we agree (or they agree with me) on many things so far. I suppose I see some of the same progressions but it's not like that can't be faked when one is doing a retroactive read like that. If anything, I get paranoid that Hally is towncoring me (and others) and latching on to the things I say because I'm wrong - like my SR on MR for example.
i do think your read is warped by sc. normally one might take my agreement with you as a sign that we share a town perspective but instead you wave it away as me trying to pocket you because you’re wrong. i mean like... i can’t disprove that accusation? other than to say that i’m pretty sure i was sus of radishes before i read that you were. also i’m towncoring you because i find you to be obvious town so far. you can assume it’s an agenda if you want—again, this isn’t something i can disprove—but fmpov that isn’t a justified assumption. it tells me you’ve already written my slot off and are now fitting everything i do into “hally is a wolf because sc was a wolf” instead of evaluating me on my own merits and with a fresh perspective
i understand this though, it is what it is. it’s just the nature of replacing in to a consensus scum read slot
Another thing is that it seems like Hally came into this with pre-established reads and an agenda to push. I was hoping there would be more freshness to the reads, since they came in with a blank slate and reading after-the-fact can be very different from following the game in real-time. At least the progression on nute developed well and similar to how I felt. The Nanook read is fine, but that's an easy push for the wolves if he's town right now.
Amy got a quick town read and wasn't talked about much, which makes me think that's a potential w/w.
i mean, again i can’t prove to you that i don’t have an agenda or “pre established reads” but i don’t think thats a justified assumption to make. you can clearly see my reads progressing as i read so im not sure how you can conclude they’re pre-established
re: nanook i’m not interested in pushing him anymore this day. this happens like every game we play where we’re both town. i always find him wolfy at first and then we find each other later. i think his reaction to me is fine and what i would expect of him if we’re both town again. so i’m satisfied for now and that’s all
re: amy i didn’t really understand the case on her tbh. i don’t have the context of her meta but i didn’t think she was wolfy when rabbit cases her. she was still null to me. and then i found her meaty posts after that pretty towny. so now she’s been moved up to a town lean. there isn’t really much else to talk about until i see more from her
In short, I don't think Hally's play is damning or anything, but it's not enough to raise the slot from the hole that Scirrus put it into. At least not yet. I do like the dynamic between Hally and Radishes. That's probably not w/w but I think those are good wagons to talk about today. Imo, there's a good shot of getting a wolf between them.
this is largely irrelevant and probably unproductive but really, what could i do, theoretically speaking, to get out of the “hole sc put me in”? i subbed in, immediately started solving and engaging with the game, have reads and progressions that you yourself share, have like 50 posts already, etc. i think i’m plenty towny but this is of course my own biased view. still, i would appreciate being evaluated on my own merits if at all possible
Benson wrote: ↑Wed Jul 22, 2020 9:18 am
Last post before I really have to go.
What is this and why is no one talking about it???
Nutella on Sciruss/Hally is fucking WEIRD
nutella wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 1:43 pm
Benson wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 12:58 pm
Actually, I realize nutella has (and just did) follow up her Amy reads, so you can disregard that point in my previous post. I guess if anything, nute, I want to know what was your *initial* read on Amy when you voted? What specifically about her subsequent posts made you think town?
I never voted lol why do people keep saying that

my vote for dizzy just now was my first vote!
but yes when I initially agreed with rabbit's case on amy, I thought that it made sense amy looked most generally wolfy out of the people who had participated much at that point. as she's posted more and especially with her longer posts about the tim stuff and about iaafr I think she's much more in her town meta. and I particularly mindmelded with her iaafr read.
other stuff from the remainder of page 10
-wwh seems pretty towny now, sort of a vague tone thing but the way she's trying to put in some independent work and the way she expressed her take on each tutuu quote, generally feels like her perspective is genuine.
-radish's case on scirrus made me feel worse about radish and better about scirrus.
This was one of the few things Nutella mentioned about Scirrus while he was a focal point yesterday. Basically dismissing the case to SR Radishes. I don't get that. I think the case was objectively fine unless you have some TMI or anterior reasons for thinking otherwise.
After this, and aside from a small post or two, it was radio silence on the Scirrus front until Hally got here.
nutella wrote: ↑Wed Jul 22, 2020 1:42 am
[VOTE:
master radishes] aubergine
would feel bad misyeeting him d1 yet again but.... he feels so different and calculated here
and dizzy is not even remotely off the hook
Nutella is now firmly in the Hally camp in the campaign to chop radishes. This isn't strange but I'm just making a note of it.
nutella wrote: ↑Wed Jul 22, 2020 2:41 am
alright heres basically where im at now
lock town
hally
tim
tutuu
town with reservations, roughly ordered
benson
amy
lc
proto
dizzy (trusting hally lol)
wwh
nanook
iaafr
shh don't tell her but trending down
alison
meh/lean scum
colin
cbob
kza
radish
Hally is lock town.
What
WHAT
Some of the placements on the list are just bewildering. I want to call it villagery to not just be sheeping the consensus, but if we really were on the right track with some of our scum reads then maybe she's forced into the position to try to push a completely different consensus than most of the other players have established. Idk, but this is super interesting.
What I'm saying is I really want to think this is a w/w duo. That might be far too easy though. But this is what I want people to look at closely today: MR vs Hally & Nute. We have something spicy there.
shrug
if nut is a wolf it’s possible she’s trying to pocket me because she knows i’m easily susceptible to that. but we’ve towned together a few times already and tend to share similar perspectives when we do so it’s not out of the realm of possibility to me that she’s found me as town as quickly as she has. i’m not that difficult to read
also i’m pretty sure if we were teamed nut wouldn’t lock me as town so quickly with my slot in the position it’s in and her not being that townread but ymmv
colonialbob wrote: ↑Wed Jul 22, 2020 10:32 am
Reading the last few pages led me to ISO Nanook and all I see is some early "reads" followed by a bunch of nothing until he started getting pressure, at which point there was finally another piece of game-relevant info. So
[VOTE:
nanook] aubergine
this seems like a pretty opportunistic vote and push. i’m really not finding you towny so far
nutella wrote: ↑Wed Jul 22, 2020 12:58 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Wed Jul 22, 2020 3:34 am
Alison wrote: ↑Wed Jul 22, 2020 3:23 am
Hally wrote: ↑Wed Jul 22, 2020 3:07 am
Alison wrote: ↑Wed Jul 22, 2020 1:55 am
Hally you've called a couple of things "not W/W" and:
1) Like you've pointed out it's a little too early in the game to be doing associatives like that.
2) I don't actually understand why they aren't W/W. Like it isn't obvious to me why the interactions you point out aren't within the scum range of the players involved to fake.
Can you please elaborate a bit more on those thoughts?
linki: Yes, that dynamic you're alluding to between MR, nanook and nutella. What is it about it that makes you think they can't be associated together? I don't get the sense that the scum ranges of any of those three players are particularly narrow, so it has to be something specific and strong that makes you think this.
double linki: Also what is with you being so quick to do associative stuff?
idk sometimes i do associatives it’s not really new for me
so like, i think radish/nanook are possible w/w because nanook kinda sandwiched radishes into his tr’s early even though i don’t think radishes really belongs there. wolves tend to like to lump teammates in with villagers
nanook/nut not aligned because i dont see any reason why nut would push on nanook here as w/w. could she? like yea it’s not out of her wolf range but like... why would she when nanook is not under threat
radishes/nut not aligned because i don’t think w!radishes would defend w!nut like that when she was getting wagoned. it had an air of tmi to it, like he knew nut was a villager and wanted to keep his hands clean of anything having to do with the push/maybe even pocket nut
that’s the associatives i have in that group of three. obviously not set in stone but yea
These associatives require a lot of assumptions and I'm mostly inclined to think you made them up honestly. Like you have a set of assumptions about how mafia would play, like never bus D1, and I'm left with more questions than answers. Why is someone who townreads someone who doesn't deserve it wolves with them, and not wolf whiteknighting/TMI-ing a town, or just town with a weird read? Why can't wolves use D1 to distance knowing full well that their interactions will be referred to later down the road?
It's not even necessarily a question of "Hally is wrong", it's like you're concocting a narrative of the spot and trying to push it on us in lieu of doing actual investigative work, which is why I was kinda skeeved out by your random associative analysis that didn't seem to lead anywhere and felt extremely premature.
nutella: Just when you're trending up on my radar, I'm trending down on yours. :P
i’m not married to any of this analysis since we don’t even have flips yet but i believe the assumptions i’m making are more often true than not. i don’t hard align nanook/radishes but i think it’s possible. i would say i’m much more confident in nut/radishes and nut/nanook not being aligned then radishes/nanook being aligned
like ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ idk what to tell you. sometimes i have thoughts based on assumptions that may not be correct or fully formed. it’s the nature of making reads in a game in which i know nothing
i’m honestly not sure why you have a problem with this. i think you’re just calling it fake because you’re either already tunneled on sc being a wolf and don’t wanna give me a chance
or a wolf who doesn’t wanna let this mislim slip away because you can see i’m already working my way out of the hole
it’s fine though, we tend to have different approaches and ways of thinking about interactions so it could just be that
I heavily vibed with the bolded take on Alison's treatment of Hally's slot. It should be a good thing that Hally came in and towned it up to pull their slot up out of a tight spot. Alison looks like she doesn't want this to happen.
eh. it’s hard because confirmation bias is a real thing. i honestly don’t know how to separate townies who are confbiasing my play into being wolfy because omg sc was evil and wolves who are pretending to confbias because they’d really like to be able to get me mislimed here. subbing into a widely scum read slot means that i’m necessarily gonna have to contend with the baggage sc accumulated and it’s going to affect how people read me even if they’re approaching me in good faith. benson, for example, i think is town who is just confbiasing. radishes could be a wolf trying to hold on to the push because i don’t feel he actually gave my play a fair shake at all. with benson i can see the gears turning as he tries to evaluate me even though he comes to a conclusion that’s incorrect. i don’t feel radishes has actually evaluated me in the same way so far. alison i’m torn on because we have such different ways of thinking that i can buy she genuinely doesnt like my play, but i also think she would exploit that as a wolf
idk it’s hard to evaluate tbh