It's a Mysterious Universe (D6)

[TonyStarkPrime]

I had already locked up alison before but good try

[Alison]

Unless you being locked up was how TSP joins the wolf chat.

If that was the case he'd have joined the wolf chat Night 1, when he locked me up for the first time.

[Trustworthy Liberal]

I had already locked up alison before but good try

[Hyena]

Okay, I'm back!

Another possibility is that mafia has been choosing not to kill at all. One reason I can see this is a possibility is that there could be a wolf in the punk chat and they've been afraid to attack them... but then why didn't they go after the people that have been in the thread? Maybe it isn't confirmed to them where the lost wolf is if the is one. If there -isn't- a lost wolf, I have no clue why they would choose not to nightkill someone, especially last night when they could have reached parity today.

Yeah I considered the holster bluff possibilities. There are two main uses for a holster bluff in this scenario. Firstly, if mafia believe in the possibility of a doctor protecting them and want to get fake cleared off there being no kill on a night they got protected. (On previous nights, not the night where a successful kill would give them auto, obviously.) This is less likely because from town's point of view the kill could have been stopped by a punk roleblock as well. One way the wolves could be incentivized to make this play is if they were a member of punk chat and knew that the roleblock was going on someone they wanted to frame. That way they can come in the next day pushing the idea that either they were healed (and are towncleared) or the person they roleblocked was stopped from making the kill (and therefore outed wolf). Both narratives are helpful to them. The other main use of a holster bluff is if the main wolf is unsure who the lost wolf is and doesn't want to shoot them by accident.

In the scenario where scum is a member of punk chat and wanted to frame someone by holstering, that would mean the scum in the punk chat is capable of making night kills, right? If this is the case, do you think they've been able to make night kills each of these nights?

[TonyStarkPrime]

I don't think it's possible that there was a holster on night 5 unless something went badly wrong

[TonyStarkPrime]

cause any kill wins?

[Alison]

I don't think it's possible that there was a holster on night 5 unless something went badly wrong

Why?

[Hyena]

I don't think that theory about mafia losing their NK makes sense though, game balance wise. In that universe, town would have a suicide bomber, an investigative, some inventor that gives notes, a neighbourhood with a roleblock, and a dayvig, and scum get... their nightkills stripped away after D2 and a lost wolf?

The only world in which that is even remotely balanced PR wise is if nutella is scum and the dayvig is supposed to compensate for the lack of nightkill, but Occam's Razor is that this theory just isn't true.

Hmm... yeah, when you put it that way in terms of balance, that theory doesn't make sense to me.

In that case, either something is happening to the nightkills, mafia is holstering, or it's some combination of the two.

[TonyStarkPrime]

wait alison and me are also team-cleared via n2. I was blocked, Alison was still locked up. there was a kill

[Alison]

No yeah you're right I don't think any wolf has an incentive to holster N5, whether lost or main, unless I'm missing something.

[TonyStarkPrime]

I don't think it's possible that there was a holster on night 5 unless something went badly wrong

Why?

cause any kill wins?

What scum team CHOOSES to holster. And not like immediately try to frame me and all that

[TonyStarkPrime]

Main wolf still doesn't know lost wolf and is in no danger of getting chopped is the only thing I can think of

[Alison]

Yeah you're right about that, I got mixed up.

[Hyena]

cause any kill wins?

That's what I'm saying. There's no reason for mafia to not try to kill last night unless they were absolutely afraid of hitting a lost wolf. Otherwise, they'd come into today 2-2 most likely. The only other factor would be you being able to break tie votes.

[Trustworthy Liberal]

I don't think it's possible that there was a holster on night 5 unless something went badly wrong

So night 5 means Alison carryied the kill but where is the kill ever onther night?
Like by everything we know we should have lost that night no?

[Trustworthy Liberal]

wait alison and me are also team-cleared via n2. I was blocked, Alison was still locked up. there was a kill

Except the BLOCK ISN'T 100% AND MAY FAIL

[Hyena]

I don't think it's possible that there was a holster on night 5 unless something went badly wrong

Why?

cause any kill wins?

What scum team CHOOSES to holster. And not like immediately try to frame me and all that

It would HAVE to be one of me and TL then if this is the case, right?

[Alison]

Main wolf still doesn't know lost wolf and is in no danger of getting chopped is the only thing I can think of

I don't think anyone in this thread can say that they are in no danger at all of getting exed in F5 so it's probably not a holster. That reduces the possibilities down to: wolf carrying the kill was roleblocked, main wolf shot the lost wolf and the bullet bounced off because they can't shoot teammates, or someone tried to shoot me without knowing that your jailkeep would prevent that.

[Trustworthy Liberal]

TSP the neibourhood roleblock can never be used to clear you or anyone

[Alison]

TSP the neibourhood roleblock can never be used to clear you or anyone

Can you verify with nanook whether or not you'll be informed if your block failed?

[Hyena]

Main wolf still doesn't know lost wolf and is in no danger of getting chopped is the only thing I can think of

I don't think anyone in this thread can say that they are in no danger at all of getting exed in F5 so it's probably not a holster. That reduces the possibilities down to: wolf carrying the kill was roleblocked, main wolf shot the lost wolf and the bullet bounced off because they can't shoot teammates, or someone tried to shoot me without knowing that your jailkeep would prevent that.

Are we talking about last night or the night before right now? Because last night was N5.

[TonyStarkPrime]

So, as TL raises, the question becomes why is the game ongoing. Inference, there's another force in play. It's why I suspect I wasn't blocked last night or the block failed and thus why I'm more confident that the block worked on night 2. Not being blocked means either one of the punk chat members has the ability to hold the block secretly or they are both lying.

or wolves holstered n3 shot alison n4 and shot me n5 because lol and got vested

[Trustworthy Liberal]

Everytime i see TSP try to clear himself from the roleblock thats been stated to have a failure chance i think they are more and more likely a wolf

[Alison]

Main wolf still doesn't know lost wolf and is in no danger of getting chopped is the only thing I can think of

I don't think anyone in this thread can say that they are in no danger at all of getting exed in F5 so it's probably not a holster. That reduces the possibilities down to: wolf carrying the kill was roleblocked, main wolf shot the lost wolf and the bullet bounced off because they can't shoot teammates, or someone tried to shoot me without knowing that your jailkeep would prevent that.

Are we talking about last night or the night before right now? Because last night was N5.

Last night.

[TonyStarkPrime]

I don't think it's possible that there was a holster on night 5 unless something went badly wrong

Why?

cause any kill wins?

What scum team CHOOSES to holster. And not like immediately try to frame me and all that

It would HAVE to be one of me and TL then if this is the case, right?

I think there are about a dozen reasons why it's always one of you or TL

[Alison]

Main wolf still doesn't know lost wolf and is in no danger of getting chopped is the only thing I can think of

I don't think anyone in this thread can say that they are in no danger at all of getting exed in F5 so it's probably not a holster. That reduces the possibilities down to: wolf carrying the kill was roleblocked, main wolf shot the lost wolf and the bullet bounced off because they can't shoot teammates, or someone tried to shoot me without knowing that your jailkeep would prevent that.

Are we talking about last night or the night before right now? Because last night was N5.

Last night.

As in, the 30 minute night right after exeing Quin.

[Alison]

Everytime i see TSP try to clear himself from the roleblock thats been stated to have a failure chance i think they are more and more likely a wolf

Who's his wolf partner?

[Trustworthy Liberal]

I don't think it's possible that there was a holster on night 5 unless something went badly wrong

Why?

cause any kill wins?

What scum team CHOOSES to holster. And not like immediately try to frame me and all that

It would HAVE to be one of me and TL then if this is the case, right?

I think there are about a dozen reasons why it's always one of you or TL

I don't think its either but since everyone thinks its just me just hammer me so we can lose now instead of in 24hours

[Hyena]

Main wolf still doesn't know lost wolf and is in no danger of getting chopped is the only thing I can think of

I don't think anyone in this thread can say that they are in no danger at all of getting exed in F5 so it's probably not a holster. That reduces the possibilities down to: wolf carrying the kill was roleblocked, main wolf shot the lost wolf and the bullet bounced off because they can't shoot teammates, or someone tried to shoot me without knowing that your jailkeep would prevent that.

Are we talking about last night or the night before right now? Because last night was N5.

Last night.

Okay. You weren't jailkept last night. It was the night before that it happened, I though.

[TonyStarkPrime]

Everytime i see TSP try to clear himself from the roleblock thats been stated to have a failure chance i think they are more and more likely a wolf

I mean seriously I'm not going to accept "TSP is a wolf he got blocked" and also "TSP can't clear himself from a block cause the block maybe doesn't work who knows even though there's actually no mechanic that suggests that this is by chance" but I include further reasoning why I think I was definitely blocked N2 so

[Trustworthy Liberal]

Everytime i see TSP try to clear himself from the roleblock thats been stated to have a failure chance i think they are more and more likely a wolf

Who's his wolf partner?

If lost wolf Nutella is cleared mechnically due to the D1 stuff.
outside that think Nutella being thier lsot wolf is the most likely.

[Hyena]

I don't think it's possible that there was a holster on night 5 unless something went badly wrong

Why?

cause any kill wins?

What scum team CHOOSES to holster. And not like immediately try to frame me and all that

It would HAVE to be one of me and TL then if this is the case, right?

I think there are about a dozen reasons why it's always one of you or TL

Okay, okay. From my PoV, it would always be TL then.

[Alison]

Everytime i see TSP try to clear himself from the roleblock thats been stated to have a failure chance i think they are more and more likely a wolf

Who's his wolf partner?

If lost wolf Nutella is cleared mechnically due to the D1 stuff.
outside that think Nutella being thier lsot wolf is the most likely.

If your theory is correct, why hasn't nutella shot me already?

[Trustworthy Liberal]

Everytime i see TSP try to clear himself from the roleblock thats been stated to have a failure chance i think they are more and more likely a wolf

I mean seriously I'm not going to accept "TSP is a wolf he got blocked" and also "TSP can't clear himself from a block cause the block maybe doesn't work who knows even though there's actually no mechanic that suggests that this is by chance" but I include further reasoning why I think I was definitely blocked N2 so

You are saying i am town cause i must have been Roleblocked D2 cause i for sure wasn't the last night.
I don't trust that and theres no way to confirm it.

[Trustworthy Liberal]

Everytime i see TSP try to clear himself from the roleblock thats been stated to have a failure chance i think they are more and more likely a wolf

Who's his wolf partner?

If lost wolf Nutella is cleared mechnically due to the D1 stuff.
outside that think Nutella being thier lsot wolf is the most likely.

If your theory is correct, why hasn't nutella shot me already?

Cause she was 2-Shot and used both already and has been lieing that she can still shoot most likely.

[Hyena]

I don't think it's possible that there was a holster on night 5 unless something went badly wrong

Why?

cause any kill wins?

What scum team CHOOSES to holster. And not like immediately try to frame me and all that

It would HAVE to be one of me and TL then if this is the case, right?

I think there are about a dozen reasons why it's always one of you or TL

Okay, okay. From my PoV, it would always be TL then.

And if this is the case, I think you're always town here, I think.

[Hyena]

I don't think it's possible that there was a holster on night 5 unless something went badly wrong

Why?

cause any kill wins?

What scum team CHOOSES to holster. And not like immediately try to frame me and all that

It would HAVE to be one of me and TL then if this is the case, right?

I think there are about a dozen reasons why it's always one of you or TL

Okay, okay. From my PoV, it would always be TL then.

And if this is the case, I think you're always town here, I think.

Which means it would be either TL+Alison or TL+Nutella

[TonyStarkPrime]

Everytime i see TSP try to clear himself from the roleblock thats been stated to have a failure chance i think they are more and more likely a wolf

I mean seriously I'm not going to accept "TSP is a wolf he got blocked" and also "TSP can't clear himself from a block cause the block maybe doesn't work who knows even though there's actually no mechanic that suggests that this is by chance" but I include further reasoning why I think I was definitely blocked N2 so

You are saying i am town cause i must have been Roleblocked D2 cause i for sure wasn't the last night.
I don't trust that and theres no way to confirm it.

I know you don't trust that. I'm not trying to use it to 100% confirm me. There are other reasons to confirm me. I don't like you pinning all of my towniness on "I was blocked n2"

[TonyStarkPrime]

okay nutella has no more shots is also something to consider

[Trustworthy Liberal]

okay nutella has no more shots is also something to consider

Something i figured from early on and would make sense how they kept treated the other day when they said just yeet them and we remidned them they had the gun.

[TonyStarkPrime]

what if the mafia kill is somehow restricted just how nutella's kill is

[TonyStarkPrime]

would that do it?

[TonyStarkPrime]

It doesn't change who is most likely mafia and it explains everything and it fits with the current knowledge

[Trustworthy Liberal]

would that do it?

Does that make sense for balence at all?

[Hyena]

TSP, you mentioned thinking that our roleblock didn't go through and that you mentioned to protect someone last night, right? Who was it again?

[Hyena]

TSP, you mentioned thinking that our roleblock didn't go through and that you mentioned to protect someone last night, right? Who was it again?

This is important, because if you're right, then you might have the game solved right now from my PoV.

[Hyena]

Again, here are punk chat's RBs throughout the game:
N1: Poison - order of votes goes TH, TL, me, then Quin
N2: TSP - Trustworthy tried voting for themself initially, but then the order of votes goes TH, me, TL, then a late vote from Quin
N3: TSP - This is the night Marmot redirected our RB to TSP. Before that, the order of votes went Quin (for Alison), TL (for nutella), me (for nutella)
N4: Alison - TL and I voted nearly simultaneously
N5: TSP - TL and I voted nearly simultaneously

There hasn't been any night kills beginning N3. To note, this happened the night proceeding the day phase punk chat entered the thread. Also to note, TSP apparently has a bulletproof vest.

One possibility that could explain the lack of night kills is that punk chat has been roleblocking the correct mafia for the last three nights. If this is the case, then the game is pretty straightforward -- it's TSP and Alison. However... I'm not that lucky, I think. There was some logic that went into the decisions, but like.... three times in a row? I'll be impressed with myself if this actually is the case.

Another possibility is that mafia has been choosing not to kill at all. One reason I can see this is a possibility is that there could be a wolf in the punk chat and they've been afraid to attack them... but then why didn't they go after the people that have been in the thread? Maybe it isn't confirmed to them where the lost wolf is if the is one. If there -isn't- a lost wolf, I have no clue why they would choose not to nightkill someone, especially last night when they could have reached parity today.

I think “wolves shoot at tsp hit vest wolves shoot at Alison / are Alison and run into jail / wolves shoot at Nutella and Nutella got doctored by the only potential TP role in the game (my nonlethal action)” isn’t entirely out of the realm of possibility

Was Nutella the person you tried to save last night?

[Hyena]

If you saved Nutella last night, then we need to look at the night Alison was locked up. As I mentioned earlier, I think only one of two things happened: 1.) Someone attacked Alison in jail, which I initially thought was Nutella (though I guess it could be TLib, too), 2.) Or we stopped Alison from attacking someone.

[Hyena]

If you saved Nutella last night, then we need to look at the night Alison was locked up. As I mentioned earlier, I think only one of two things happened: 1.) Someone attacked Alison in jail, which I initially thought was Nutella (though I guess it could be TLib, too), 2.) Or we stopped Alison from attacking someone.

Wait, wait, wait. In scenario #1, would TLib attack Alison if they are mafia partners? Only if one of them is a lost wolf, right?

[Hyena]

okay nutella has no more shots is also something to consider

Something i figured from early on and would make sense how they kept treated the other day when they said just yeet them and we remidned them they had the gun.

If mafia didn't know that Nutella had no more shots, do think mafia would want to nightkill her more?