The Hobbit Mafia: Day 12

[reywaS]

And making vague statements about something going on is not going to pass for hunting baddies, Boogs.

And I think I might be ready to bring up a llama suspicion again. Time to look back, but lets start with this exchange.

If Mongoose had teemmates who knew she would survive a lynch (and knew that surviving a lynch would look suspicious, given our roles), wouldn't they just vote for her to look good?

This is the point I was making as well.

Ok, that post you quoted got me thinking, and I looked back over the Mongoose theories. Help me out here. I totally get that a lynch survival looks really suspicious, but I'm not sold on the teammates thing. The prevailing theory seems to be that the teammates could have provided the lynch stop (unless it was Mongoose herself). But why would they stop a lynch and all vote for her? Surely they would know we'd all be super suspicious, so it would have to be knowingly sacrificing a teammate, and even helping it along. I just can't see them going from "no one is listening to llama" to "ok let's throw her to the wolves and give ourselves credit"... or just make everyone way more edgy. If they saw that the votes were suddenly coming in for her (and why were they?), why wouldn't they just do the standard throwing under the bus and just seal her fate and their supposed civviness?

Don't get me wrong. I agree that there were certainly baddies in the vote, but why is it impossible that it's the classic jump in where someone not on your team is already getting the votes?

For now, this makes me lean more towards the Smaug theory, but I'm still not even sure I'm voting for her. The problem is that, though it would be great to get rid of Smaug, it's another easy bandwagon for the baddies.

linki: @Boogs: I'll say it again. Mongoose had way more votes than a whole baddie team before anyone started voting for you, and any even semi-experienced Mafia player would know that a failed dog-pile lynch would look really suspicious. It's possible that a baddie voted for you, just as it's possible that baddies voted for Mongoose, because they try to blend into existing suspicions (which is why I've suspected you). I think these points make it unlikely that a baddie team tried to vote you out. But, as I've mentioned above, I'm not sure that the baddies were thinking about Mongoose as a teammate at all.

It's a good point, CBK. I'll have to think about it.

My guess is that people were actually starting to listen to me, and at some point they saw a Mongoose lynch as inevitable and tried to save her. Then, the piling on allowed for a near unanimous vote with no clues to differentiate one voter from another.

My guess is that the timing of the votes coming in caused them to make a tactical error by using their lynch save, only later realizing that they should have just thrown her under the buss. Another possibility is thta her role has a power that they really wanted to use for one more day and thought it was worth it.

I know that it's obvious to point out that llama lead the mongoose charge, but it began to look like the teammates argument didn't make sense before the lynch went down, so that adds to it for me.

llama and epignosis are great places to begin discussion for the next lynch.

[thellama73]

Why would I vehemently lead a campaign against a civ if I were bad? It would be a kamikaze mission.

I blame myself for being wrong about Mongoose, but I don't blame myself for all of you being wrong about her. Take responsibility for your own votes, people. No one forced you.

[birdwithteeth11]

Well, that result was entirely unexpected on my part. RIP Mongoose!

I'm voting to take the back way in. Living on the edge because why not? Plus we might find out something interesting by not going through the front gate.

As for that lynch, that's going to make me seriously re-consider some things. I'll need some time to think about this.

Linki: llama I can understand. But how does Epig come into this?

Linki 2: I have to think about this. I'm leaning towards you just having bad judgement for now though.

[thellama73]

Linki 2: I have to think about this. I'm leaning towards you just having bad judgement for now though.

Llama has a pretty good gut when he's civvie

Haha, no I don't.

My record is terrible. Sometime my gut is all I have though.

[thellama73]

I tried to tell you guys before. The fact that I was right about MP made me overly cocky.

[Epignosis]

I tried to tell you guys before. The fact that I was right about MP made me overly cocky.

"Overly?" Don't you mean "normally?"

[Boogs]

I think Llama made a bad judgement call or something. I don't think my vote is going to him anytime soon. I'm still set on Snowdog

[DFaraday]

Well, that was unexpected. I have to agree with Llama though, it would be extremely risky for him to intentionally lead a lynch on a civvie.

And I vote to pay the toll. I dislike breaking laws and besides, we don't want to get in trouble with the local authorities.

[Dom]

It's so great to post again. I knew I wasn't dead the whole time, but was told to not post. It was very hard to keep my silence! I am very surprised by the outcome of the Mongoose lynch. TBH, I'd have likely voted for her. However, something strange has happened, because I do not see why she would have been so ambiguous about her survival.

llama and epignosis are great places to begin discussion for the next lynch.

Which do you suspect more?

Why would I vehemently lead a campaign against a civ if I were bad? It would be a kamikaze mission.

I don't think you're bad at the moment, but I think this is a particularly shitty reason that you aren't bad.

[reywaS]

It's so great to post again. I knew I wasn't dead the whole time, but was told to not post. It was very hard to keep my silence! I am very surprised by the outcome of the Mongoose lynch. TBH, I'd have likely voted for her. However, something strange has happened, because I do not see why she would have been so ambiguous about her survival.

llama and epignosis are great places to begin discussion for the next lynch.

Which do you suspect more?

Why would I vehemently lead a campaign against a civ if I were bad? It would be a kamikaze mission.

I don't think you're bad at the moment, but I think this is a particularly shitty reason that you aren't bad.

Epignosis

[Epignosis]

Epignosis

But golly, I've been voting for baddies and everything!

[Captain Bunny Killer]

Boogs is still the most suspicious to me.

But I could see llama being bold enough to fall back on a I-would-never-do-that-as-a-baddie argument. But I'm willing to wait that out.

[nijuukyugou]

I got caught up in real life/work stuff (danged graduation mess) and before I knew it, it was 5:30...UGH! RIP Mongoose. I'm not gonna lie: I was planning on putting my vote that way again.

At the moment, I'm not looking too hard at llama. I think it would be rather risky to put himself out there so enthusiastically only to vote a Civ out (as he said, it would be a kamikaze mission). It doesn't completely rule him out, but it also doesn't automatically peg him as bad. As I said before, what's way more suspicious is the bandwagon vote. The numbers indicate that baddies were more than happy to vote someone they knew wasn't on their team, and let llama take the blame for it when it went sour for the Civs. The last Day period was rather quiet in comparison to the other Days, so it should be easier to look back at some suspicious behavior (I hope).

As for the Night poll...since I missed out on some gold this last poll, I'm leaning towards going with the stranger. I feel dangerous

Oh, and welcome back, Dom!

[Snow Dog]

I think Llama made a bad judgement call or something. I don't think my vote is going to him anytime soon. I'm still set on Snowdog

You don't say? Even though your case fell trough? not content with lynching one civ you wanna get another?

[kneel4justice]

It's so great to post again. I knew I wasn't dead the whole time, but was told to not post. It was very hard to keep my silence! I am very surprised by the outcome of the Mongoose lynch. TBH, I'd have likely voted for her. However, something strange has happened, because I do not see why she would have been so ambiguous about her survival.

llama and epignosis are great places to begin discussion for the next lynch.

Which do you suspect more?

Why would I vehemently lead a campaign against a civ if I were bad? It would be a kamikaze mission.

I don't think you're bad at the moment, but I think this is a particularly shitty reason that you aren't bad.

Epignosis

Have you played with Epi a lot?

[Leamiteo]

And making vague statements about something going on is not going to pass for hunting baddies, Boogs.

And I think I might be ready to bring up a llama suspicion again. Time to look back, but lets start with this exchange.

llama and epignosis are great places to begin discussion for the next lynch.

Llama has been at the top of my suspect list for the last two lynches. I have re-reading to do on him and others.

[reywaS]

It's so great to post again. I knew I wasn't dead the whole time, but was told to not post. It was very hard to keep my silence! I am very surprised by the outcome of the Mongoose lynch. TBH, I'd have likely voted for her. However, something strange has happened, because I do not see why she would have been so ambiguous about her survival.

llama and epignosis are great places to begin discussion for the next lynch.

Which do you suspect more?

Why would I vehemently lead a campaign against a civ if I were bad? It would be a kamikaze mission.

I don't think you're bad at the moment, but I think this is a particularly shitty reason that you aren't bad.

Epignosis

Have you played with Epi a lot?

define a lot.

[Epignosis]

It's so great to post again. I knew I wasn't dead the whole time, but was told to not post. It was very hard to keep my silence! I am very surprised by the outcome of the Mongoose lynch. TBH, I'd have likely voted for her. However, something strange has happened, because I do not see why she would have been so ambiguous about her survival.

llama and epignosis are great places to begin discussion for the next lynch.

Which do you suspect more?

Why would I vehemently lead a campaign against a civ if I were bad? It would be a kamikaze mission.

I don't think you're bad at the moment, but I think this is a particularly shitty reason that you aren't bad.

Epignosis

Have you played with Epi a lot?

define a lot.

Actually, define "played."

[reywaS]

define "Actually, define "played." "

[insertnamehere]

define "Actually, define "played." "

define "define "Actually, def- screw it.

[Epignosis]

define "Actually, define "played." "

define, "pretending to be suspicious of someone."

That definition will start with "rey"

[kneel4justice]

define a lot.

I'm not sure, I am just trying to grasp if you have experience.
From what I can have seen, I was under the impression you suspect him because he's suspected you without really giving an explanation and instead of voting for you he changed to vote Mongoose, stuff like that?
And to me, those things look bad but when I pair them up with Epi, they don't. It just seems like his personality or ego talking. Lol
So I was wondering, is this different than what you've seen from him before? Or have you not had many opportunities to see him before?

[kneel4justice]

And it should be known, I personally haven't played with him a lot. I just wondered if maybe you bring something to the table that I cannot.

[Epignosis]

Mongoose can speak for my civvie game very well. Go ahead now Mongoose- testify!

[Boogs]

Mongoose can speak for my civvie game very well. Go ahead now Mongoose- testify!

lol kidding epignosis

[Mongoose]

Mongoose can speak for my civvie game very well. Go ahead now Mongoose- testify!

I'm dead, son

[Hedgeowl]

Dont want to miss this with an appt later. The only way it wprks currently is if mongoose is Smaug or not on a team or her team has given up on her.

Votess my fav gooose.

lol http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=URXwGZoZz_M&t=2m16s

WB Dom! RIP Mongoose! This is a pretty big letdown to lose you and your awesome role. I am not at all surprised at the votes all going your way this lynch after you survived the first. You were the more concrete suspect sadly. Since we now know you were civ I definitely am interested in revisting the voters from the previous day. I dont find llama to be particularly suspect either for leading the lynch on her. He's tried with me before as a civ himself. He's a man on conviction, so this seems normal to me until other evidence pops up. I am not sure how I feel about Epi currently, but not sure I'll have much time to do any in depth before Monday. Family is here and we're throwing a party saturday.

[>SpaghettiEverywhere]

I win the contest yayyyy also im gonna be voting to go the sneaky sneaky way, that sounds more fun than paying tolls. And i'm baffled as to the lynch results. I dont know what to think.

[Hedgeowl]

Definitely going with the back way!

[thellama73]

I tried to tell you guys before. The fact that I was right about MP made me overly cocky.

"Overly?" Don't you mean "normally?"

Can't it be both?

Glad to see Dom back. I was just starting to trust him when he was killed.

[Dom]

I tried to tell you guys before. The fact that I was right about MP made me overly cocky.

"Overly?" Don't you mean "normally?"

Can't it be both?

Glad to see Dom back. I was just starting to trust him when he was killed.

It's nice to be back

Llama, what do you think of Epig this game?

[Turnip Head]

Rest in peace Goosey, and sorry for my part in your death

Welcome back Sir Dom Can't wait to hear your thoughts.

[Dom]

Rest in peace Goosey, and sorry for my part in your death

Welcome back Sir Dom Can't wait to hear your thoughts.

If you have anything in particular you'd like me to respond to, please let me know. I'm not sure I have the time to go through the whole day period. I may, but I'm leaning unlikely. It's my best friend's graduation weekend, so I have lots of things planned.

[fingersplints]

RIP Mongoose

Dom, while you are around can you tell me what your thoughts currently on llama are?
He was suspicious of you earlier but backed off that and now seems to be buddying up to you. I'm still leaning wrong civvie but I'm just curious how you see him

[Bullzeye]

Voting for the back way, why pay if you can get in for free?

[Marmot]

I may be a bit quiet today and tomorrow. Packing and heading out on vacation today, but I'll find time to be more participatory tomorrow.

Also, I'm going in the back way.

[fingersplints]

Sice the host posts worded it as "risk" going in the back, I am going to go in the front way. We need to get in so it makes no sense to maybe make it in the back when we can guarantee getting in the front.
Also, don't they pay someone to get them in in The Hobbit? (might be thinking of something else) idk seems to be the right choice to me

[reywaS]

define "Actually, define "played." "

define, "pretending to be suspicious of someone."

That definition will start with "rey"

I'm not pretending. I think you are bad.

[reywaS]

define a lot.

I'm not sure, I am just trying to grasp if you have experience.
From what I can have seen, I was under the impression you suspect him because he's suspected you without really giving an explanation and instead of voting for you he changed to vote Mongoose, stuff like that?
And to me, those things look bad but when I pair them up with Epi, they don't. It just seems like his personality or ego talking. Lol
So I was wondering, is this different than what you've seen from him before? Or have you not had many opportunities to see him before?

That plays a part. Then pair it with his general attitude and it feels like baddie Epignosis and not the civvie version. Feels a lot like how he played in Breaking Bad mafia on RM. I hosted that game, so I got an up close and personal view of his baddie game there. I feel like this fits how he played there.

[reywaS]

To add a little more...Seems like Epig is doing a lot of bobbing and weaving. Giving some ideas on why someone is bad and then trying to separate himself from it. He did it with me. He also did it with Mongoose. Right after Mongoose survived the first lynch, there Epig was saying how bad it made her look. Then he pretty much disappears from the conversation after the lynch wagon starts picking up steam. He didn't vote at all in the last lynch.

[thellama73]

Llama, what do you think of Epig this game?

I think he is probably okay. He went after MP hard and Rob's hyper-aggressive baddie hunting is usually a sign of his civvienes.

[Marmot]

Sice the host posts worded it as "risk" going in the back, I am going to go in the front way. We need to get in so it makes no sense to maybe make it in the back when we can guarantee getting in the front.
Also, don't they pay someone to get them in in The Hobbit? (might be thinking of something else) idk seems to be the right choice to me

They pay someone to get them in because they wanted to avoid suspicion and attention, not because they didn't want to pay the money. Also, when we crossed the river several days ago, it was risk for some to leave the path (Beorn told us not to) to look for a place to cross, but that worked out just fine.

[fingersplints]

RIP Mongoose

Dom, while you are around can you tell me what your thoughts currently on llama are?
He was suspicious of you earlier but backed off that and now seems to be buddying up to you. I'm still leaning wrong civvie but I'm just curious how you see him

also never mind to this I found my answer

[Dom]

RIP Mongoose

Dom, while you are around can you tell me what your thoughts currently on llama are?
He was suspicious of you earlier but backed off that and now seems to be buddying up to you. I'm still leaning wrong civvie but I'm just curious how you see him

I am pretty sure Llama is a civvie, but not because he led the lynch on Mongoose and that would be too "risky" for a baddie (that's exactly why a baddie would do that). I think he's civvie because he's been very proactive in hunting baddies, very consistent in his suspicions, and does not leave doors open for himself to get out of voting for someone, i.e. a teammate.

Llama, what do you think of Epig this game?

I think he is probably okay. He went after MP hard and Rob's hyper-aggressive baddie hunting is usually a sign of his civvienes.

Do you think it's peculiar that everyone he has gone after has been on the same team?

RIP Mongoose

Dom, while you are around can you tell me what your thoughts currently on llama are?
He was suspicious of you earlier but backed off that and now seems to be buddying up to you. I'm still leaning wrong civvie but I'm just curious how you see him

also never mind to this I found my answer

To add a little more...Seems like Epig is doing a lot of bobbing and weaving. Giving some ideas on why someone is bad and then trying to separate himself from it. He did it with me. He also did it with Mongoose. Right after Mongoose survived the first lynch, there Epig was saying how bad it made her look. Then he pretty much disappears from the conversation after the lynch wagon starts picking up steam. He didn't vote at all in the last lynch.

What would you call the Elo and MP lynches, then?

[thellama73]

Do you think it's peculiar that everyone he has gone after has been on the same team?

It's unusual, but I think the idea that he would relentlessly hound his entire team just for civ cred strains belief. The other option, of course, is that he is on the other team and just really good at finding other baddies, but my memory (and I may be mistaken) is that he is not as aggressive in baddie hunting when he is mafia, even in a two-mafia game. I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt for now.

Everyone seems to think Boogs is suspicious. I'm not seeing it, personally, but I was wrong last time, so I'm willing to let others take the lead on the next lynch. I want to look more closely at CBK and Vompatti, personally, as I'm getting a bad vibe from both of them.

[reywaS]

RIP Mongoose

Dom, while you are around can you tell me what your thoughts currently on llama are?
He was suspicious of you earlier but backed off that and now seems to be buddying up to you. I'm still leaning wrong civvie but I'm just curious how you see him

I am pretty sure Llama is a civvie, but not because he led the lynch on Mongoose and that would be too "risky" for a baddie (that's exactly why a baddie would do that). I think he's civvie because he's been very proactive in hunting baddies, very consistent in his suspicions, and does not leave doors open for himself to get out of voting for someone, i.e. a teammate.

Llama, what do you think of Epig this game?

I think he is probably okay. He went after MP hard and Rob's hyper-aggressive baddie hunting is usually a sign of his civvienes.

Do you think it's peculiar that everyone he has gone after has been on the same team?

RIP Mongoose

Dom, while you are around can you tell me what your thoughts currently on llama are?
He was suspicious of you earlier but backed off that and now seems to be buddying up to you. I'm still leaning wrong civvie but I'm just curious how you see him

also never mind to this I found my answer

To add a little more...Seems like Epig is doing a lot of bobbing and weaving. Giving some ideas on why someone is bad and then trying to separate himself from it. He did it with me. He also did it with Mongoose. Right after Mongoose survived the first lynch, there Epig was saying how bad it made her look. Then he pretty much disappears from the conversation after the lynch wagon starts picking up steam. He didn't vote at all in the last lynch.

What would you call the Elo and MP lynches, then?

lynches against the other team.

[Boogs]

I personally think some of the more blendy, less talkative, non committal people should be examined this next lynch also that are most likely on this other Goblin team. It's odd that we've gotten 3 of MP's team, and none of the other. I feel like they 4 are the ones more sitting back and just voting with the flow so I'm not sure Epignosis or llama is the way to go tomorrow. I'm kind of feeling Vompattii or Snow but I think some quiet people as stated like Lizzy and we seemed to have squashed all discussion that Daisy could have been bad and she hasn't been very talky lately. There's a start for me from those 4 to cast. I think the less obvious choices are where I'm going to find a Goblin.

[Dom]

Do you think it's peculiar that everyone he has gone after has been on the same team?

It's unusual, but I think the idea that he would relentlessly hound his entire team just for civ cred strains belief. The other option, of course, is that he is on the other team and just really good at finding other baddies, but my memory (and I may be mistaken) is that he is not as aggressive in baddie hunting when he is mafia, even in a two-mafia game. I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt for now.

Everyone seems to think Boogs is suspicious. I'm not seeing it, personally, but I was wrong last time, so I'm willing to let others take the lead on the next lynch. I want to look more closely at CBK and Vompatti, personally, as I'm getting a bad vibe from both of them.

I meant that it does seem a bit odd that he has only REALLY gone after people on one team. I would think, if he is bad, he is not on their team.
Does anyone remember an Epig, who was bad, who was also hyper aggressive?

RIP Mongoose

Dom, while you are around can you tell me what your thoughts currently on llama are?
He was suspicious of you earlier but backed off that and now seems to be buddying up to you. I'm still leaning wrong civvie but I'm just curious how you see him

I am pretty sure Llama is a civvie, but not because he led the lynch on Mongoose and that would be too "risky" for a baddie (that's exactly why a baddie would do that). I think he's civvie because he's been very proactive in hunting baddies, very consistent in his suspicions, and does not leave doors open for himself to get out of voting for someone, i.e. a teammate.

Llama, what do you think of Epig this game?

I think he is probably okay. He went after MP hard and Rob's hyper-aggressive baddie hunting is usually a sign of his civvienes.

Do you think it's peculiar that everyone he has gone after has been on the same team?

RIP Mongoose

Dom, while you are around can you tell me what your thoughts currently on llama are?
He was suspicious of you earlier but backed off that and now seems to be buddying up to you. I'm still leaning wrong civvie but I'm just curious how you see him

also never mind to this I found my answer

To add a little more...Seems like Epig is doing a lot of bobbing and weaving. Giving some ideas on why someone is bad and then trying to separate himself from it. He did it with me. He also did it with Mongoose. Right after Mongoose survived the first lynch, there Epig was saying how bad it made her look. Then he pretty much disappears from the conversation after the lynch wagon starts picking up steam. He didn't vote at all in the last lynch.

What would you call the Elo and MP lynches, then?

lynches against the other team.

But how does this fit with your bob and weave "theory"... thing.

[DFaraday]

Do you think it's peculiar that everyone he has gone after has been on the same team?

Actually, it makes sense to me. We got one baddie right off the bat, and Epi saw connections MP made to teammates, and it just got on a roll from there. It's not like Epi was randomly going after completely unrelated people and they all just happened to be on the same team.

I feel like Boogs has an obsession with Snow Dog.

[Captain Bunny Killer]

Do you think it's peculiar that everyone he has gone after has been on the same team?

Actually, it makes sense to me. We got one baddie right off the bat, and Epi saw connections MP made to teammates, and it just got on a roll from there. It's not like Epi was randomly going after completely unrelated people and they all just happened to be on the same team.

I feel like Boogs has an obsession with Snow Dog.

I feel like Boogs is trying to be more convincing at an original suspicion while deflecting the suspicion on himself (pointing at his own voters).