Bread Mafia [Game Over]

[tutuu]

A SHIEEEET WE BACK IN IT BOYS

ngl felt pretty annoyed at the ellie flip. Seeing made claim cop with green on michelle made my eyes widen. Still kinda getting the feeling of annoyance (coz i was wrong on so much) but we BACK IN THIS BITCH LETS GO

sorry @Made i suck lol

okay, but why would tutuu ignore that and just be like "lol bang bang made :P". i took it seriously then, everyone thought I was sus for that which is prob clear why now, but like the conversation continued contemperaniously with it being clear that I thought tutuu and esooa weren't meming. Esooa feel like she could of been because afterwards she was like "Yeah nah i'm lying...or was i..or was i just lying now." so okay. but tutuu? tutuu's response was before this conversation took place

y'all the very least get why i'm shooketh no?

i get why you're shook, sure. and you're justified to be shook.

but i really don't know anything about tutuu's "bang bang" moment; i kind of glazed over it and have just about no opinion of it. @tutuu herself ought to say something about it

Made was telling me and eso to scumread each other. I was like FUCK NO, we gonna bang bang u instead. How tf was i supposed to know hes a PR who took my bullshit seriously? Im not mafia, my job isnt to PR hunt. My job is to scumread town and throw games

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

I’ve been awake for wholly too long and my days of being awake for 30 hours at a time and being fine are now passed

Catch ya’ll on the flippity flip

[nutella]

btw Grogu is turbo scummy now, cause one thing I liked about him was he had no care who died in "wifom valley," and that's suddenly become not so much a non-agenda where he doesn't care to push away from the mafia in there, but an extremely strong agenda, where he doesn't give a fuck cause everyone being scum read is town

valid

Yeaaaah ok

[Made]

btw Grogu is turbo scummy now, cause one thing I liked about him was he had no care who died in "wifom valley," and that's suddenly become not so much a non-agenda where he doesn't care to push away from the mafia in there, but an extremely strong agenda, where he doesn't give a fuck cause everyone being scum read is town

this. It also makes a lot of sense in a world. (more sense than Doom who's been more forceful imo. I need to reread the iso there)

here it's Baby Yoda (:keys:)
you could do JJJ Alison
IF we are in a Situation and are able to hit our at most one we can presume the rest are town with more confidence than we have now at least

[staypositivefriend]

thinking out loud:

is an alison and jay team ever possible?

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

in light of me, made, michelle, and ellie all being town, it's obvious that the scum have been manipulating this game and pulling it into a certain narrative. i felt consistently throughout yesterday that something was "weird" about this game - and it's obvious now that the thing i found so weird was the fact that the scum was bruteforcing the POE into a specific direction

in my opinion, a reveal like this should make every town player here start their reads over from scratch & use that information to determine who's been pushing the game into a direction that's advantageous for scum

Or town have been hard pushing town

Either way I’m not starting from scratch lol

okay, i'm just gonna brain dumping and see if we can build it into anything that makes sense
two scenaros:
Situation . Mafia has been running train on thread: JJJ,nutella, alison
Situation . Mafia has just been going with that flow: tutuu, nanook, grogu, doom

i'm starting to have real doubt about it being nutella wolf because:
1. that means they didn't give nutella the kill day one, which means they have probably an even townier person to give the kill (or they vig'd night one. Is there reason not to vig n1?)
2. Mac, Nanook, JJJ, LC, Tutuu, and Alison have all consistently ruled her out till this point. she deserves the win if this is the case tbh

in Situation the confusion we've felt has come from dissenting voice that just didn't make sense. Alison is good at logicing, if she's town, hopefully there's enough here for her to win it for us. if she's not town, then boom, got one. basically, @Alison solve the game or we're baking you (if ur not too busy, thx )

Doom has also been saying she has felt super confused this game, so that's not a green check but a point to weigh in her. Especially if we're in Situation and not Situation

I feel like confusion vibes more with a Situation but, someone made the point that this game maybe the kind of game that needs to be supported by analysis, and not just vibes. so again, @Alison , u got this!!! unless you don't in which case

i am vibing with this post a lot, my friend. i love it

gun to head, i feel that situation is more likely than situation . we know that the town had a consensus POE that has been, more or less, 100% incorrect. it's possible for the town to have self-destructed and fallen into a bad consensus position, but occam's razor would tell us that the more likely situation is that there have been multiple active scum steering the game into a bad direction.

which means that, gth, the "go with the flow" world contains two scum at most, but my gut would tell me that it only has one.

the point about nutella is a good one, and i hadn't considered that at all. i would very much like to re-assess nutella today - she's been my strongest townread for the entirety of this game, and i would like to either catch her or be able to confidently lock her in as a "legacy" name that i can remove from my POE

since we only need to remove 3 names from that pool of nine, perhaps our time would be better spent today solidifying town names that we can feel confident about, as opposed to searching for scum teams

You have to remove four from nine. We have to get three mafia in five shots

oh. that's less fun

Eh, for those of us who aren’t PRs it’s not too bad, just need to find three non-mech clear names

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I am awake entirely too late.

To-do list for Tuesday

- Full interactive reviews for two-way combinations including:

Alison
Grogu
Omega
DkKoba
tutuu

- Dedicated ISO crawl for the town reads

[nutella]

thinking out loud:

is an alison and jay team ever possible?

Possible technically but don't super think so

[staypositivefriend]

thinking out loud:

is an alison and jay team ever possible?

it would certainly fit within the framework of alison declaring "lock clear" for a highly specific reason as soon as the game started. it would absolutely fit with what i understand of alison's scumgame to position herself and her partner as lock clears

[nutella]

Think it's likely just Alison and two of Doom/Dk/grogu

[Esooa]

here's the thing

Tutuu was either roleblocked with the kill, or she was saved

50/50

50% chance of being scum

[Esooa]

Think it's likely just Alison and two of Doom/Dk/grogu

why dk

[Esooa]

Remember Alisons day 1 interactions with Tutuu? Scum reading her and such? What to make of that?

[nutella]

thinking out loud:

is an alison and jay team ever possible?

it would certainly fit within the framework of alison declaring "lock clear" for a highly specific reason as soon as the game started. it would absolutely fit with what i understand of alison's scumgame to position herself and her partner as lock clears

Maybe but I vibe with Jay here tonight overall and his progression on her

Eh

Would go to him if the other names I said last post don't end it

[Made]

btw Grogu is turbo scummy now, cause one thing I liked about him was he had no care who died in "wifom valley," and that's suddenly become not so much a non-agenda where he doesn't care to push away from the mafia in there, but an extremely strong agenda, where he doesn't give a fuck cause everyone being scum read is town

this. It also makes a lot of sense in a world. (more sense than Doom who's been more forceful imo. I need to reread the iso there)

here it's Baby Yoda ( )
you could do JJJ Alison
you could do Nutella JJJ
etcetc
IF we are in a Situation and are able to hit our at most one we can presume the rest are town with more confidence than we have now at least

I was going to add more examples, so i fixed that and the emoji. i'm not trying to imply jjj alison are the only thread steerers, but both would make a lot of sense here. By the Nutella Axiom


(also i'm labeling these phenomia shit like the nutella axiom and the situation situation to make the logic flow better in my head. If ever anyone need, i can post a key later)

[nutella]

Think it's likely just Alison and two of Doom/Dk/grogu

why dk

Guess I don't really have a specific case just poe'd them and they have yet to react to claims

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

here's the thing

Tutuu was either roleblocked with the kill, or she was saved

50/50

50% chance of being scum

I’m tilted

[staypositivefriend]

thinking out loud:

is an alison and jay team ever possible?

it would certainly fit within the framework of alison declaring "lock clear" for a highly specific reason as soon as the game started. it would absolutely fit with what i understand of alison's scumgame to position herself and her partner as lock clears

Maybe but I vibe with Jay here tonight overall and his progression on her

Eh

Would go to him if the other names I said last post don't end it

this is primarily an ego and gut driven read but you and jagged both agreeing within the same series of posts that i made the "most sense" as scum gave me the strong feeling that one of you was piggybacking the other

this read might entirely evaporate when i explore you/jagged's ISOs again

[Made]

there's no world where we understand the thread to be led by an Influential Doom, Dk Nanook or Tutuu is there???

also fuck, i have a giant blind spot for Esooa, who fits most of the Situation cases

[Esooa]

there's no world where we understand the thread to be led by an Influential Doom, Dk Nanook or Tutuu is there???

also fuck, i have a giant blind spot for Esooa, who fits most of the Situation cases

:^)

[staypositivefriend]

also fuck, i have a giant blind spot for Esooa

same

i think the most telling thing for her alignment will be her interactions w/the flipped scum. the lack of a flipped scum makes her harder for me to parse with confidence

[Made]

alison, DOOM, koba, esooa, grogu, jagged, nanook, nutella, tutuu

there are almost certainly three scum in that pool.

this is not new information - but it helps me visualize my perspective if i lay the names out like that

in the world where koba is mafia, mafia realized I was probably a powerrole (they soft claimed right before EOD).
This is a point against tutuu as it would mean mafia figured i was mafia and didn't try to kill me, and instead tried to kill tutuu(???)

so therefore koba & tutuu are probably not mafia together

I think it's also fair to expect a sloppy mafia at this point as if michelle, me, spf were all not cleared, it would not hard to get any of us lynched.

koba softed that they knew you were a power role? am i misunderstanding?

no, koba softed that they were a power role... i'll quote one sec

[DaughterOfOmega]

Think it's likely just Alison and two of Doom/Dk/grogu

I would say this, if you think Alison and I would have that interaction d1 as partners, you think a whole lot more of me than you should

[tutuu]

anyway, i claim jailkeeper. i saved tutuu last night.

you might be upset that i claimed, but i'm outing for a couple of reasons:

1. i'm a consensus scumread right now, and a push that the mafia are almost certainly banking on getting chopped within the next day or so. me being confirmed town is going to force the scum to re-orient their position in the game

2. for the town that are misreading me, having me as confirmed town will also help them recontextualize the game. if me/michelle/made are all confirmed to be town today, then that's going to force people to scumhunt in places that they haven't otherwise looked yet

3. made (who appears to be confirmed town?) is actively scumreading and actively suspicious of tutuu, along with DK. although i do not see tutuu getting chopped today, having tutuu as a mechanically confirmed clear along with myself is going to be extremely valuable

4. my claim guarantees that the town will have a mechanical clear for the next 3 days - (they would have to kill me/made/tutuu to create a clearless game)

i view the game like this: with my claim today, we have three mechanically confirmed town players and 9 "unclear" players, with 3 (?) incorrect chops needed for ut olose this game

there are three scum in that pool of nine, and i am confident that if we put our brains together, we can box in the wolves and get the game back in a stable position

(addendum: i realize that tutuu, could, in theory, be a scum whose kill i roleblocked - but i find that extremely extremely unlikely)

Wait do we have auto ROFL

Ur forgetting michelle

4 clears. Is that not auto?

[staypositivefriend]

if DOOM flipped scum i would probably lockclear nutella, and vice versa. i don't think their interactions on day one are partner indicative

[staypositivefriend]

anyway, i claim jailkeeper. i saved tutuu last night.

you might be upset that i claimed, but i'm outing for a couple of reasons:

1. i'm a consensus scumread right now, and a push that the mafia are almost certainly banking on getting chopped within the next day or so. me being confirmed town is going to force the scum to re-orient their position in the game

2. for the town that are misreading me, having me as confirmed town will also help them recontextualize the game. if me/michelle/made are all confirmed to be town today, then that's going to force people to scumhunt in places that they haven't otherwise looked yet

3. made (who appears to be confirmed town?) is actively scumreading and actively suspicious of tutuu, along with DK. although i do not see tutuu getting chopped today, having tutuu as a mechanically confirmed clear along with myself is going to be extremely valuable

4. my claim guarantees that the town will have a mechanical clear for the next 3 days - (they would have to kill me/made/tutuu to create a clearless game)

i view the game like this: with my claim today, we have three mechanically confirmed town players and 9 "unclear" players, with 3 (?) incorrect chops needed for ut olose this game

there are three scum in that pool of nine, and i am confident that if we put our brains together, we can box in the wolves and get the game back in a stable position

(addendum: i realize that tutuu, could, in theory, be a scum whose kill i roleblocked - but i find that extremely extremely unlikely)

Wait do we have auto ROFL

Ur forgetting michelle

4 clears. Is that not auto?

unfortunately it's 3 clears at best - because you aren't actually confirmed town because of my visit (since i could have blocked your kill) - i jumped the gun in assuming that the no kill was a confirmation of my townread on you

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Best evidence I’m not mafia with Alison is that I am still a living, cogent being. I can only imagine a game this active and being in a mafia chat with Alison. Our combined obsessive strategizing would preclude me from sleeping or eating.

Nobody cares about this comment, but I wanted to say it anyway.

[Made]

alison, DOOM, koba, esooa, grogu, jagged, nanook, nutella, tutuu

there are almost certainly three scum in that pool.

this is not new information - but it helps me visualize my perspective if i lay the names out like that

in the world where koba is mafia, mafia realized I was probably a powerrole (they soft claimed right before EOD).
This is a point against tutuu as it would mean mafia figured i was mafia and didn't try to kill me, and instead tried to kill tutuu(???)

so therefore koba & tutuu are probably not mafia together

I think it's also fair to expect a sloppy mafia at this point as if michelle, me, spf were all not cleared, it would not hard to get any of us lynched.

koba softed that they knew you were a power role? am i misunderstanding?

no, koba softed that they were a power role... i'll quote one sec

This was a misremember. I can't find the post anyways. assume for now only two role claims were Tutuu and Esooa.

[staypositivefriend]

damn, it feels good to be able to solve without caring about how i'm being perceived. i should claim my role in disadvantageous situations more often :P

[DaughterOfOmega]

It's nice because I have anti partner stuff with almost all poe

ez clap

[tutuu]

Looks like alison fell asleep crafting the perfect CC, jet lag is a bitch, riperino

LOL

[staypositivefriend]

It's nice because I have anti partner stuff with almost all poe

ez clap

oh yeah? if you truly think that you dont make sense as partners with any of the people in the POE, it might be worth compiling the reasons together

[DaughterOfOmega]

if DOOM flipped scum i would probably lockclear nutella, and vice versa. i don't think their interactions on day one are partner indicative

I think there might be an issue with this though

[tutuu]

Good mornin sunshines whats cookin

Someone tried to shoot you probably

Dude i just woke up and i dreamt someone was trying to mug me and stab me and i ran away. Is that just fate? Im telling u man my dreams are prophetic

scum reading this post but eeeeeee eiigneaoirghjaeo;gjharwelio

If i was scum u wouldnt scumread any of my posts

[Esooa]

Good mornin sunshines whats cookin

Someone tried to shoot you probably

Dude i just woke up and i dreamt someone was trying to mug me and stab me and i ran away. Is that just fate? Im telling u man my dreams are prophetic

scum reading this post but eeeeeee eiigneaoirghjaeo;gjharwelio

If i was scum u wouldnt scumread any of my posts

untrue

[Made]

alison, DOOM, koba, esooa, grogu, jagged, nanook, nutella, tutuu

there are almost certainly three scum in that pool.

this is not new information - but it helps me visualize my perspective if i lay the names out like that

in the world where esooa is mafia, mafia realized I was probably a powerrole (she tried to cover for me)
This is a point against tutuu as it would mean mafia figured i was power role and didn't try to kill me, and instead tried to kill tutuu(???)

so therefore esooa & tutuu are probably not mafia together

I think it's also fair to expect a sloppy mafia at this point as if michelle, me, spf were all not cleared, it would not hard to get any of us lynched.

Edited to be more accurate. esooa fits this bit far more.

Also, mafia has know from the get go that there was a cop in this game, and if Nutella went for the kill N1, they also knew that there was a jailkeeper.

[tutuu]

here's the thing

Tutuu was either roleblocked with the kill, or she was saved

50/50

50% chance of being scum

Tutuu is also either wonder woman, or shes not

50/50

50% chance of being wonder woman

Brilliant deduction eso, you must have learned this in the probability class u took in ur mensa university thats reserved only for geniuses with 169+ IQ such as urself pat pat u cutiepie

[tutuu]

Alison

[tutuu]

is probably mafia lol

[VOTE: Alison] aubergine

[tutuu]

Jesus christ i put her at top town

[tutuu]

Man

[tutuu]

Alison + Jay + Grogu?

[tutuu]

I need to throw all my reads to the bin and start a new. Starting afresh is always fun

[tutuu]

DOOM

[tutuu]

DOOM is a self acclaimed veteran player for what did she say 8 years?

What is the chance she fooled me and is fooling all of us relying on the fact that we dont know her very well

[tutuu]

@Esooa ignore the mech stuff for a second. U seriously cant find me as town based off of my day talk alone?

[tutuu]

Can you briefly explain your scumread on me please?

[Esooa]

Can you briefly explain your scumread on me please?

seeing as your ISO completely doesn't work, and I was about to go to bed, no

[Made]

here's the thing

Tutuu was either roleblocked with the kill, or she was saved

50/50

50% chance of being scum

Tutuu is also either wonder woman, or shes not

50/50

50% chance of being wonder woman

Brilliant deduction eso, you must have learned this in the probability class u took in ur mensa university thats reserved only for geniuses with 169+ IQ such as urself pat pat u cutiepie

okay, but we can put some numbers to this....
let's play a round of everyones favorite game....
WOULD MAFIA SHOOT THEM ASSUMING THEY ARE TOWN!
WOULD MAFIA SHOOT THEM ASSUMING THEY ARE TOWN!*
Alison- yes
DaughterOfOmega - no
DkKoba - yes
Esooa - no
Grogu - yes
JaggedJimmyJay - yes
Made - no
Michelle - no
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME - no (with knowledge that Made is town, it doesn't make sense to kill Nanook imo)
nutella - yes
staypositivefriend - no
tutuu - yes

Dk, Grogu, tutuu, nutella, JJJ, Alison are all great targets to Night Kill assuming town.
we know that there are 3 mafia left
we know that Made, Michelle, and SuperBestFriend are town

There are three mafia in this group:
Alison- yes
DaughterOfOmega - no
DkKoba - yes
Esooa - no
Grogu - yes
JaggedJimmyJay - yes
Made - no
Michelle - no
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME - no
nutella - yes
staypositivefriend - no
tutuu - yes

The Tutuu Trolley Problem

Case 1
we assume all "No"s are mafia,
then, mafia chose to shoot tutuu over 5 other players (DK, Grogu, JJJ, nutella, and alison)
odds that they shot tutuu are 1/6

Case 2
we assume two "No"s are mafia
then mafia chose to shot tutuu over 4 other players
odds that they shot tutuu are 1/5

Case 3
we assume one "No" is mafia
the mafia chose to shoot tutuu over 3 other players
odds they shot tutuu are 1/4

Case 4
we assume all "No"s are town
the mafia chose to shoot tutuu over 2 other players
odds they shot tutuu are 1/3

footnotes:
*note the math changes significantly in two scenarios:
1. Mafia has reason to think I am a power role (the Essoa Association, if you will)
2. if we invalidate the Nutella Axiom** and Mafia becomes aware of the Jailer N1 after a missed vig shot)

**the Nutella Axiom also implies that either mafia did not use their vig shot on night 1 or night 2 OR that mafia used both their vig shot and nightkill /w tutuu (which would obviously make her bad)

[Made]

but yeah, most situations where nutella is mafia, tutuu is town I think? this part wasn't very math-y but make sense i think
[VOTE: Tutuu] aubergine