Nanook is a Bastard Town Win!

[speedchuck]

HI LONG CON! I just DESTROYED you with FATS and LOGIC

[speedchuck]

Wait, I could be wolf in your eyes.

And then Chardonnay would have to be my partner, and we're trying to push just one innocent villager into the Tony vote... just waiting, salivating for the almost-victory.

I get that you (chuck and Marmot) have to think that.

I am willing to switch to chardonnay then, if you like. He's bad in both the scenarios I described (Chard-Tony and Chard-LC baddie teams).

This makes sense to me, please dissect it and I'm all ears.

Either you've completely lost yourself to your theorizing or you're pretending to and this is a gross false binary.

No, I was just operating on a false assumption of hammer 3.

. . .

lol derpclear?

[Long Con]

HI LONG CON! I just DESTROYED you with FATS and LOGIC

Not really, my stuff was all honest from my perspective.

Wait, I could be wolf in your eyes.

And then Chardonnay would have to be my partner, and we're trying to push just one innocent villager into the Tony vote... just waiting, salivating for the almost-victory.

I get that you (chuck and Marmot) have to think that.

I am willing to switch to chardonnay then, if you like. He's bad in both the scenarios I described (Chard-Tony and Chard-LC baddie teams).

This makes sense to me, please dissect it and I'm all ears.

Either you've completely lost yourself to your theorizing or you're pretending to and this is a gross false binary.

No, I was just operating on a false assumption of hammer 3.

. . .

lol derpclear?

I don't think you can derpclear off forgetting things discussed in the thread?

[speedchuck]

I don't think you can derpclear off forgetting things discussed in the thread?

Feel like a scumboi wouldn't forget that he's not one vote away from winning the game.

Doesn't mean a whole lot if you were scum with Char or TSP tho I guess

[Marmot]

Omg guys, I thought hammer was {__insertsomenumberthatisnot3__}.

Derpclear me plz.

[Long Con]

Ok, assuming that you and Marmot not ending the game right now is face-value meaningful, and considering the factors that a 4-hammer puts in play, what is not possible at this point for players' alignments?

[Marmot]

Pretty sure I can't be aligned with anyone except for TSP.

LC and and chard voted for me on Day 1, and the current vote count would guarantee that speedchuk and I aren't partners.

[Marmot]

That leaves

Marmot/TSP

LC/chard
LC/speedchuck
LC/TSP

chard/speedchuck
chard/TSP

speedchuck/TSP


Any of these we can rule out?

[Marmot]

Pretty sure I can't be aligned with anyone except for TSP.

LC and and chard voted for me on Day 1, and the current vote count would guarantee that speedchuk and I aren't partners.

I guess one could make an argument that I was being bussed, but I don't think there's a strong argument there. A 2-person mafia team probably doesn't want to lose one of their teammates D1.

[Long Con]

I would say LC/TSP would be a stretch, but then I admired how it would work very much.

[Long Con]

Also... we have not seen any indication of Bastard Hosting yet. So any assumptions could be laughable. Maybe the Bastard play here is a straight game.

[Long Con]

That said, we have to keep playing it straight.

[speedchuck]

[VOTE: TSP] aubergine

[speedchuck]

I'm busy today, I can't lurk around a slow thread and wait for someone to talk to.

[Long Con]

[VOTE: TSP] aubergine

Can you walk me through your decision?

[Long Con]

I'm busy today, I can't lurk around a slow thread and wait for someone to talk to.

You mean other than Marmot and I?

[speedchuck]

I'm busy today, I can't lurk around a slow thread and wait for someone to talk to.

You mean other than Marmot and I?

When I posted that, it had been nearly an hour since either of you posted. Which is significant, with so little time left.

[VOTE: TSP] aubergine

Can you walk me through your decision?

My best argument for a scum lynch is the one I just gave for you, and I don't feel too strongly about it. I doubt the final hours will see a flurry of activity and thought-out opinions. TSP has all but resigned, which is usually not a good sign vis a vis the resigned's alignment.

What I can do is make sure the vote isn't as manipulatable for scum.

[Marmot]

I will get to that when I finish my long con case post

I read your case, but you didn't talk about anyone else, just LC.

[Long Con]

I'm following while also attending an online Zoom course for my HVAC training, so I'm not as prolific and focused as I'd like. For another hour.

[Marmot]

You don't seem to have much belief in TSP being scum, which in a LYLO situation doesn't make sense for you to vote there. Or at least I can't think of one.

[Marmot]

You don't seem to have much belief in TSP being scum, which in a LYLO situation doesn't make sense for you to vote there. Or at least I can't think of one.

This is @speedchuck

[Long Con]

You don't seem to have much belief in TSP being scum, which in a LYLO situation doesn't make sense for you to vote there. Or at least I can't think of one.

You are suggesting a Speed = scum and TSP = town situation here?

[Marmot]

You don't seem to have much belief in TSP being scum, which in a LYLO situation doesn't make sense for you to vote there. Or at least I can't think of one.

You are suggesting a Speed = scum and TSP = town situation here?

No, I think speedchuck is just bussing his partner.


I think speedchuck and TSP each individually have the highest equity of being mafia, and their interactions just make it feel worse.

[speedchuck]

I will get to that when I finish my long con case post

I read your case, but you didn't talk about anyone else, just LC.

Ended up waffling too much and forgot.

Doesn't really matter. If LC is scum, this game is all but over. I can't see myself convincing you or anyone else (or myself) to pull out the big guns and lay the votes down.

Another reason I voted TSP. I don't think I can sway things at this point (except maybe onto myself) and that makes TSP a necessary gamble to take.

[Marmot]

But yes, there is a world where TSP is actually town here, but even so, I don't see town-chuck making this vote.

[Marmot]

Remember when Mac was in this game?

[Marmot]

I will get to that when I finish my long con case post

I read your case, but you didn't talk about anyone else, just LC.

Ended up waffling too much and forgot.

Doesn't really matter. If LC is scum, this game is all but over. I can't see myself convincing you or anyone else (or myself) to pull out the big guns and lay the votes down.

Another reason I voted TSP. I don't think I can sway things at this point (except maybe onto myself) and that makes TSP a necessary gamble to take.

I mean it does matter. If LC is scum, and he's the only one, we get another day. If he's scum and has a partner, baking that partner is an option too.

[Marmot]

But you're right, I'm almost certainly not baking LC today.


I do suddenly have a tinfoil that LC/chard are the actual team, as they've voted together every day now.

[Marmot]

@Long Con did you ever claim your role flavor?

[Long Con]

@Long Con did you ever claim your role flavor?

No, should I?

I think we're all vanilla with a rando flavour, for the record.

[TonyStarkPrime]

so marmot's town.

[TonyStarkPrime]

ok so we assume lc is town for whatever reasons.

[TonyStarkPrime]

chard is still optimal but if the votes aren't there the votes aren't there

[Marmot]

@Martiangg99 consolidate onto marmot please?

I could also support TSP/Esoopa

Im not interested in LC atm b/c he adores living in PoE as both alignments.

The fact that Martian has arguably the most WIM left of the living roster I'm not even going to bother to reconsider the TR I've developed there. If i get stuck in a elo/melo situation with Martian then I will review his slot more seriously.

I could make a similar argument for Made, but I kinda forgot why i was TRing him, oof.

Also LC i need to look at.

Oh yeah, Made exudes town looking paranoia several times this game. Expressing concerns over things that I dont think mafia would be comfortable asserting. Like the "Maybe mod OP is lie, and ties aren't mafia kill choice" line.

I think tonally he looks town over all I'd say.

-/-/-/-

Ill lookit LC tomorrow.

I mean this is an awfully charitable explanation

Sure.

Do you think there's a better explanation for it?

I’m up to three. Char what do you think of Marmot right now

Im not town reading him, but i think there is circumstancal evidence for town him. The EoD esoona flip + mac death really gives me the willies that marmot is town, and was set-up to be pushed today.

I'd probably say if marmot is town then scum is you/speed. LC is an outlier i havent really thought about yet.

also im still catching up atm

Martin confirmed mafia goon.

Naw, if Martian were mafia goon he'd be too gunshy to out scummy flavor text as scum.

-/-/-/-/-

Can anyone recall who had 3 votes early on? Was it speedchuck or martin? Someone moved their vote when I mentioned that hammer was 5, but I recall someone had 3 very early today.

That was the speedChuck wagon composed of you/martin/Longcon

I have yet to vote today.

Ughh, maybe i am just wrong on Made like straight up.

-/-/-/-

@Long Con I think you have a tendency to SR any kind of AtE correct?

I was under the impression that Martian response's impacted you badly, because in part, he was AtEing. Tho it was Martin who specify mentioned that he was AtEing out of frustration. Maybe you didn't perceive it that way at all.

Sorry, if i keep making incorrect assumptions about how you play. Thats a bad habit of mine w/ regaruds to players i have minor to moderate exp with.

How do you feel about Made's vote on Martin when he thought it was EoD now? I also thought it was curious, but wasnt sure if there was info there to break down.

It's a little sketchy. Maybe Martin is town and Made is not. He agreed with me maybe too easily on Martin, especially when I think most other players disagree with my points on him.

hmm, thanks

i think that LC, and Martian are more town looking then Speed, and Tony.

im not sure what else i have to say atm, will probably have to reconsider somethings tomarrow.

ngl, this makes me feel pretty bad about LC/chard.

[TonyStarkPrime]

if we're gonna actually consider chard/lc I should remove my vote

[Marmot]

Those are their Day 1 and 2 interactions (or at least from chard's side). Especially those first four:

"Im not interested in LC atm b/c he adores living in PoE as both alignments."

"Also LC i need to look at."

"Ill lookit LC tomorrow."

"LC is an outlier i havent really thought about yet.


TSP and chuck, I see you're both here. Thoughts on this?

[Marmot]

Does anyone have a chard rand mafia game I can look at?

[Marmot]

Sorry for doing this with under an hour.

[TonyStarkPrime]

Those are their Day 1 and 2 interactions (or at least from chard's side). Especially those first four:

"Im not interested in LC atm b/c he adores living in PoE as both alignments."

"Also LC i need to look at."

"Ill lookit LC tomorrow."

"LC is an outlier i havent really thought about yet.


TSP and chuck, I see you're both here. Thoughts on this?

My initial thought was more sorta "chard knows LC's alignment and doens't have to put thought in. I discussed this in the moment, it's why I thought Chard/Speed was more likely. But yeah maybe this position works too.

[speedchuck]

I know nothing meta-wise about chard. The above is more of a case than I've seen on TSP, but question is, do you have anything other than possible LC alignment?

I know I laid my LC skeevyness out, but is there anything incriminating directly on Char?

[speedchuck]

[VOTE: unvote] aubergine
About to drive.
I'll revote when I get home. The vote swing is there. 20 minutes. Discus.

[Long Con]

Those are their Day 1 and 2 interactions (or at least from chard's side). Especially those first four:

"Im not interested in LC atm b/c he adores living in PoE as both alignments."

"Also LC i need to look at."

"Ill lookit LC tomorrow."

"LC is an outlier i havent really thought about yet.


TSP and chuck, I see you're both here. Thoughts on this?

I thought chard was a little fakey in that way, with regard to me.

[Long Con]

I would switch to chard if that's a preferred yeet.

[Marmot]

I know nothing meta-wise about chard. The above is more of a case than I've seen on TSP, but question is, do you have anything other than possible LC alignment?

I know I laid my LC skeevyness out, but is there anything incriminating directly on Char?

I haven't said much today, but I laid out my reasons for suspecting you too yesterday.

But I'm also scratching my head, because I'm almost certainly voting for one of you two today, so I dunno why Martin would have been killed over me last night. LC/chard on the other hand, know that I'm voting one of you too today, so they take Martin off the table instead.

[Long Con]

So at least one of Marmot and speed are town, we can be sure of that or the game would be over.

Forgive the conceit, but I know I'm town, so that makes the only possible teams:

Chard-Tony

Tony-speed

speed-Chard

Chard-Marmot

Tony-Marmot

Chard voted for Tony 15 hours ago and never came back to the thread.

[Long Con]

Chard isn't coming back. What does that mean? I think it looks bad for him.

[Long Con]

Because we need all Towns firing at this time.

[Marmot]

Objectively, I do still think the TSP/speedchuck interactions on Day 1-2 still look worse

chard not going back to iso LC is something that's very easy for a civilian with a blindspot to do

[speedchuck]

I'm back

[Long Con]

Maybe a wolf chard would have been more sure to keep a clean record? As in, he would have, at least rudimentarily, followed up on his multiple claims to look over my posts?