Fargo Mafia [Game Ends]

[tedxtr]

Town pile
Alison*
Esooa
falcon45ca
MacDougall
Oddmerta*
Sloonei
Strawhenge
*reassess this interplay if and only if there is no appropriate explanation for future life, let them sort themselves

Close enough pile
BoKnows
staypositivefriend
Hally/tutuu

Backup POE pool
fingersplints
Justplayingitcool
Michelle

POE pool
Dom
KZA
Long Con
Nanook
tedxtr
TonyStarkPrime

probably a few people from the other team are in here then

al was his later addition

[BoKnows]

Ted and TSP are just both mafia with Marmot. This is obvious.

Neat

@Marmot [Joe Bulo] has been eliminated.

"Management says acquire the territory, we acquire it. Whether that's cash down or sending bodies to the morgue, that's up to the Krauts"
Joe Bulo

[Passive] - The frontman for the Kansas City Mafia northern expansion, Joe’s bringing a Walmart mentality to small-town America. As the new face of corporate crime, Joe doesn't get his own hands dirty. He scans as [Innocent] to cops. [Redacted]. He is immune to any other actions as long as one of his enforcers is alive.
--- [Joe Bullo Says Hi] - Factional kills performed by him are upgraded to a super-kill. [1-shot]

[Passive] - Joe runs a tight ship. If one of his men puts his operation in jeopardy, he doesn't hesitate in taking their arms or their tongues. If one of his underlings dies, he may redistribute their abilities to another one or use them himself.

[Active] - As the specialist in negotiations of his team, Joe may each day invite a player for a chat the following night. They will gain a private chat during the night phase, and he will learn their flavor name at the end of it. If he chats with the same player twice, he will learn their full role.
--- [Cease-Fire] - Any player currently in a chat with Joe will have their actions fail if they target one of his team.

Wincon - Eliminate all threats to the Kansas City Mafia

Night 1 starts.
You have 23 hours to submit your actions (if any).

this is a very good role

Good role

I retract my read on TSP. I don't think he's aligned to Marmot.

Ted is extremely obviously though.

Neat

[tedxtr]

macdougall you still suck at reading me

[tedxtr]

macdougall you still suck at reading me

should stop trying

[BoKnows]

well since marmot's role was described as "very good", marmot trying to bus Al to preserve the superkill isn't out of the picture.

[tedxtr]

well since marmot's role was described as "very good", marmot trying to bus Al to preserve the superkill isn't out of the picture.

i guess not, all he needed was one night

[Justplayingitcool]

well since marmot's role was described as "very good", marmot trying to bus Al to preserve the superkill isn't out of the picture.

Depends on what the votes were like at the time of marmots vote. Al might have been the only vote to keep him alive

[Justplayingitcool]

Although, I remember it striking me at the time that al didn’t vote for marmot to self-pres

[Sloonei]

I was unable to draw anything conclusive from Marmot's handling of al_sama and vice versa. Marmot left him alone until right before the deadline when they became competing wagons. That could easily be indicative of a partnership. Or it might not be. It's all WIFOM at that point.

[BoKnows]

well since marmot's role was described as "very good", marmot trying to bus Al to preserve the superkill isn't out of the picture.

i guess not, all he needed was one night

well since marmot's role was described as "very good", marmot trying to bus Al to preserve the superkill isn't out of the picture.

Depends on what the votes were like at the time of marmots vote. Al might have been the only vote to keep him alive

Both of you make good points. I can see a world where Al is KC, and a world where he isn't.

[Hally]

worth noting that marmot also had an ability where if someone on his team died he could give their abilities to someone else on his team or himself

so if for example al was a wolf and got lunched, his team wouldn’t lose al’s abilities

that’s very valuable. his role was not one you’d want to have die first

[Hally]

if i was smart i would read odd or kza’s iso so i could see if they’ve done something villagery that escaped me. but i lack the motivation. maybe later

[Hally]

this game has too many posts

[tedxtr]

Falcon is probably mafia here lol

i thought everyone said he’s a villager?

had a very bizarre EOD where he tried to get Alison voted and then ended up on Al Sama

i highly doubt falcon thought anyone was seriously going to flash wagon alison

So why try?

I have Falcon as probable Marmot teammate tbh.

[Sloonei]

yeah, marmot's role does not look like one that his team would have wanted to prioritize saving/not bussing.

[falcon45ca]

Falcon is probably mafia here lol

i thought everyone said he’s a villager?

had a very bizarre EOD where he tried to get Alison voted and then ended up on Al Sama

i highly doubt falcon thought anyone was seriously going to flash wagon alison

So why try?

I have Falcon as probable Marmot teammate tbh.

Just throw shit at the wall and see what sticks eh?

[BoKnows]

Bird and rodent... interesting take.

[tedxtr]

I was unable to draw anything conclusive from Marmot's handling of al_sama and vice versa. Marmot left him alone until right before the deadline when they became competing wagons. That could easily be indicative of a partnership. Or it might not be. It's all WIFOM at that point.

probably the correct take

[tedxtr]

Falcon is probably mafia here lol

i thought everyone said he’s a villager?

had a very bizarre EOD where he tried to get Alison voted and then ended up on Al Sama

i highly doubt falcon thought anyone was seriously going to flash wagon alison

So why try?

I have Falcon as probable Marmot teammate tbh.

Just throw shit at the wall and see what sticks eh?

you're speaking big words for someone that has not addressed me at least once in this game

[Hally]

ted, mac iso’d falcon after that and rescinded/said falcon wasn’t a priority for him

[falcon45ca]

i thought everyone said he’s a villager?

had a very bizarre EOD where he tried to get Alison voted and then ended up on Al Sama

i highly doubt falcon thought anyone was seriously going to flash wagon alison

So why try?

I have Falcon as probable Marmot teammate tbh.

Just throw shit at the wall and see what sticks eh?

you're speaking big words for someone that has not addressed me at least once in this game

Right back at ya buttercup

[Hally]

yeah, marmot's role does not look like one that his team would have wanted to prioritize saving/not bussing.

doesn’t? or does? i was saying they would want to save it

[BoKnows]

according to my data all of marmot's and falc's interactions were null.

[tedxtr]

ted, mac iso’d falcon after that and rescinded/said falcon wasn’t a priority for him

i guess i should've expected that, since he changes his reads all the damn time

unless it's me, then he never does

[Hally]

i often find the things falcon suspects people for silly but i’ve never played with him and don’t know if this is just his style

[tedxtr]

had a very bizarre EOD where he tried to get Alison voted and then ended up on Al Sama

i highly doubt falcon thought anyone was seriously going to flash wagon alison

So why try?

I have Falcon as probable Marmot teammate tbh.

Just throw shit at the wall and see what sticks eh?

you're speaking big words for someone that has not addressed me at least once in this game

Right back at ya buttercup

i have not said anything boo

[falcon45ca]

ted, mac iso’d falcon after that and rescinded/said falcon wasn’t a priority for him

i guess i should've expected that, since he changes his reads all the damn time

unless it's me, then he never does

Why don't you go thru my ISO and give me a read instead of parroting others?

[Hally]

anyway bbl

[tedxtr]

ted, mac iso’d falcon after that and rescinded/said falcon wasn’t a priority for him

i guess i should've expected that, since he changes his reads all the damn time

unless it's me, then he never does

Why don't you go thru my ISO and give me a read instead of parroting others?

i don't feel like it atm

u mad?

[Sloonei]

yeah, marmot's role does not look like one that his team would have wanted to prioritize saving/not bussing.

doesn’t? or does? i was saying they would want to save it

I mixed up my phrasing. Started to say "Does not look like one they would have wanted to lose", but then changed the trajectory of the sentence toward the end.

Marmot's role is one that his team probably wanted to keep alive.

[tedxtr]

alright it's getting boring

later

[falcon45ca]

ted, mac iso’d falcon after that and rescinded/said falcon wasn’t a priority for him

i guess i should've expected that, since he changes his reads all the damn time

unless it's me, then he never does

Why don't you go thru my ISO and give me a read instead of parroting others?

i don't feel like it atm

u mad?

No, I am sassy and irreverent

[Sloonei]

We might be nearing a point where a collective trustfall/distrustfall exercise could be useful for everyone.

The first ~20 hours of this phase have been fairly productive, but I think we're starting to lose steam on the current topics and it's devolving into a little bit more bickering than I'd like to see. So that provides us with a good opportunity to regroup and reassess where we are all at before launching into the second half of Day 2.

For those that aren't familiar with trustfalls, the premise is this: Present a (brief) argument for why every player in the game is town. A distrustfall is the opposite: present a brief argument why every player in the game is mafia.
Then at the end of the exercise, go back over your list(s) and see which name stood out to you as difficult or easy to come up with arguments for one way or the other.

I am not demanding that anyone do this, I just feel like we've reached a point where this sort of assessment can be valuable.

[Sloonei]

Trustfall:

Spoiler: show

AL_sama - New player in a new environment. The thread is moving a mile a minute, al_sama does not know most of us or how we play the game over here, so it is perfectly reasonable for them to have fallen behind and struggled to stay engaged.

Alison - Believable claim. Believable effort. Open to conversation, cooperative, feels like she's emotionally invested in solving the game. Never teamed with Marmot.

BoKnows - Playing a more verbose, carefree game than he has in recent anti-town performances. Made pie charts. Doesn't look to be teamed with Marmot.

Dom - If he was mafia, he'd be a prime bussing candidate because it's free townie points. No one has pushed hard on Dom, therefore he doesn't have teammates who are seeking to gain easy credibility.

Esooa - Hinted at a role claim in a way that would be unnecessary if she is mafia. Generally carefree and believable tone.

falcon45ca - Doesn't seem to be teamed with Marmot. Has routinely put pressure on suspects without feeling bloodthirsty.

fingersplints - Has managed to stay afloat in this game despite mentioning several times that it is moving at a pace that is difficult to stay caught up with.

Justplayingitcool - Does not appear to be teamed with Marmot.

KZA - Does not appear to be teamed with Marmot. Provided a claim in a way that looked authentic.

Long Con - Believable tone and thought process in spite of being the subject of near-constant speculation/skepticism since the start of the game.

Michelle - Not teamed with Marmot, and does not seem to be concerned with how others might perceive her in this game.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME - Doesn't seem to care about how he's perceived, has suggested he can mechanically clear himself.

Oddmerta - Vouched for by Alison. Is playing in a way that would normally invite unwanted attention.

staypositivefriend - Never teamed with Marmot. Generally believable and constructive attitude/thread presence.

Strawhenge - Has fairly seamlessly stepped into the fast-paced scum-hunting environment of this thread after not playing a single game of mafia in the last 5 years. Does not appear to be teamed with Marmot.

tedxtr - I'm in a tunnel. His frustration today is an authentic reaction by a misread civilian.

TonyStarkPrime - Not teamed with Marmot. Has been unnecessarily combative at a time when he had no reason to be.

hally - I had a dream where the clouds parted and a voice from the heavens spoke to me and said "Verily, Hally is Town."

[TonyStarkPrime]

Maybe Bo?

Sloonei talk to me about Bo, who I think we're volume clearing but also occupies a weird thread position

TonyStarkPrime seems sus *Vote TSP*

tbh I don't like his first post

do we just assume that's out of his range as a wolf? It'd be out of a lot of people's ranges. Jay likes to make charts when he's a wolf though so idk. Most people aren't jay.

An Analysis of Marmot's Mentions

Earlier today I finished my analytics course so I thought it would be nice to do something analytically to celebrate. This is a basic breakdown of Marmot's posts and how he mentioned every single one of us. I went through Marmot's ISO and counted the number of times he quoted someone, and mentioned someone in one of his posts. I then categorized every single one of Martin's mentions into three categories; Null, Town, and Scum.

I categorized something a "Town" post/mention when Marmot labelled you as a town-read/lean, defended you, or gave you props for one of your posts.
I categorized something a "Scum" post/mention when Marmot scum read you, disliked what you were saying, or voted for you.
Null is everything else

It is important to keep in mind that the data doesn't fully account for sarcasm and tone. If Marmot said "I think BoKnows is scum for posting twice in a row", I would count that as a scum post. These numbers also do not show the progression of Marmots reads. These are just raw numbers that will visualize Marmot's interactions. In my opinion, these graphs will be best paired with all the analyses Jay already did.

Complete Overview

► Show Spoiler

Individual Breakdown
*Disclaimer: if you can't find a certain player all of their posts were considered null

► Show Spoiler

wolfy pie charts

I think Bo is probably town for making graphs if we can get back to that conversation. He's pretty high on the list

None of this progression on Bo makes sense. TSP calls the pie charts wolfy, but the pie charts have interesting data on Ted implicating him as a possible scum teammate of Marmot's....TSP has his vote on Ted & has him as a high scum read, so what's wolfy about the charts to TSP?

This is a snared wolf trying to widen the POE. He's thrashing like mad, almost surely a guarantee scum lynch IMO

lol

[TonyStarkPrime]

Ted is counter wagon for TSP
Nanok's wagon doesn't grow

This is interesting

You're not doing a very good job convincing us to do otherwise.

I don't even try, to convince you, you have big scum equity fmpov

michelle you're speaking my language

[TonyStarkPrime]

Hally I will not read that, i have a life

okay. well then it’s hard to care about your defense of ted unless you have mechanical information suggesting he’s a villager

I note this as role fishing and put you in my Poe

michelle you're not speaking my language anymore and we need to talk about this

[TonyStarkPrime]

Morning!

TSP, this whole 'second town core' thing feels needlessly oppositional and unproductive. Maybe it's because I haven't had my tea yet, but I can't even figure out what the hell you're trying to do or why.

why are people still acting like odd and kza claiming trooper is in any way indicative of them being villagers? i thought we established at SoD that all of the troopers being villagers would be ridiculously unbalanced

My town-lean on both of them is highly conditional on my belief in Alison's claim and neither Odd or KZA have given me any reason to believe their claims are dubious. I'm far from locking them town.

i just wanted to get lc and jpic to talk this should not have been a big deal

[TonyStarkPrime]

i’m not meaning to be the tony defense squad. we should lunch him too. just trying to play devils advocate a bit

no what the heck you are my defense squad

[TonyStarkPrime]

i’m not meaning to be the tony defense squad. we should lunch him too. just trying to play devils advocate a bit

fair enough I'll be happy with a nook, Tony, ted, al Lynch today.

rufking salad get em

[TonyStarkPrime]

Maybe Bo?

Sloonei talk to me about Bo, who I think we're volume clearing but also occupies a weird thread position

TonyStarkPrime seems sus *Vote TSP*

tbh I don't like his first post

do we just assume that's out of his range as a wolf? It'd be out of a lot of people's ranges. Jay likes to make charts when he's a wolf though so idk. Most people aren't jay.

An Analysis of Marmot's Mentions

Earlier today I finished my analytics course so I thought it would be nice to do something analytically to celebrate. This is a basic breakdown of Marmot's posts and how he mentioned every single one of us. I went through Marmot's ISO and counted the number of times he quoted someone, and mentioned someone in one of his posts. I then categorized every single one of Martin's mentions into three categories; Null, Town, and Scum.

I categorized something a "Town" post/mention when Marmot labelled you as a town-read/lean, defended you, or gave you props for one of your posts.
I categorized something a "Scum" post/mention when Marmot scum read you, disliked what you were saying, or voted for you.
Null is everything else

It is important to keep in mind that the data doesn't fully account for sarcasm and tone. If Marmot said "I think BoKnows is scum for posting twice in a row", I would count that as a scum post. These numbers also do not show the progression of Marmots reads. These are just raw numbers that will visualize Marmot's interactions. In my opinion, these graphs will be best paired with all the analyses Jay already did.

Complete Overview

► Show Spoiler

Individual Breakdown
*Disclaimer: if you can't find a certain player all of their posts were considered null

► Show Spoiler

wolfy pie charts

I think Bo is probably town for making graphs if we can get back to that conversation. He's pretty high on the list

None of this progression on Bo makes sense. TSP calls the pie charts wolfy, but the pie charts have interesting data on Ted implicating him as a possible scum teammate of Marmot's....TSP has his vote on Ted & has him as a high scum read, so what's wolfy about the charts to TSP?

This is a snared wolf trying to widen the POE. He's thrashing like mad, almost surely a guarantee scum lynch IMO

First off, I'm not trying to widen the POE. I give Bo a town read. Don't read my last post. Second, posting meaningless data into the thread is >>rand wolf. This data is meaningless. It's obviously meaningless. It does not 'implicate' Ted. It says next to nothing about Ted based off pure numbers.

[Sloonei]

Distrustfall:

Spoiler: show

AL_sama - Has not put forth a representative effort. Marmot said nothing about him until the final hours of Day 1 when they became competing wagons.

Alison - Is a scary mafier. Capitalized on the mystery of the setup and mechanics available to her to make a believable, convoluted claim while also appearing to be actively engaged in the hunt.

BoKnows - Has drawn an unusually high number of mafia role cards on this site in recent memory, and came into this game aware that he would need to change his meta. Made pie charts as an easy way to clear his name via effort.

Dom - A low-hanging fruit option that no one has seized upon. Would be an easy for wolves to push, but that hasn't happened.

Esooa - Coasting on the strength of early town reads. Claim hints are a smokescreen.

falcon45ca - Multiball environment makes mafia falcon feel more at ease because he can hunt authentically, and thus he appears more carefree and natural than he normally would as mafia.

fingersplints - Has been a fairly lowkey presence in this game. Reads do not challenge the status quo.

Justplayingitcool - Similar to falcon, the multiball environment means he can scumhunt authentically and not have to worry about looking fake. I am realizing that I lack a real read on JPIC one way or the other.

KZA - Faked his concern about the potential flavor/mechanical dangers of claiming. Capitalized on the opportunity provided by Alison's role claim by claiming his actual mafia role, passed off as a town role.

Long Con - Underwhelming interactions with Marmot. Has not done anything that would be outside of his range.

Michelle - Has appeared unwilling to engage with other players for little or no reason.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME - Looks like he has as mafia in the past. Bad Marmot interactions.

Oddmerta - No visible effort to solve the game.

staypositivefriend - Has been given a fairly prominent position of trust in the game despite doing nothing to overtly earn that. Suggested she had a role that could clear her, but then walked it back.

Strawhenge - Was a highly capable player back in the day, so we're all underestimating his propensity for falsehood here.

tedxtr - Terrible Marmot interactions.

TonyStarkPrime - His efforts to solve the game have not always looked authentic or believable.

Hally - Life is pain.

[TonyStarkPrime]

it was more than two paragraphs so I kinda glossed over it and then I played tetris instead

Quality posting from a town mindset right here

well i did at least find it by myself which on the effort scale puts me above sloonei

[TonyStarkPrime]

Falcon is probably mafia here lol

i thought everyone said he’s a villager?

had a very bizarre EOD where he tried to get Alison voted and then ended up on Al Sama

i highly doubt falcon thought anyone was seriously going to flash wagon alison

So why try?

I have Falcon as probable Marmot teammate tbh.

Just throw shit at the wall and see what sticks eh?

so did mac

[TonyStarkPrime]

ted, mac iso’d falcon after that and rescinded/said falcon wasn’t a priority for him

update: nope I'm wrong

[TonyStarkPrime]

I apologize to Esooa, I have now blatantly lied twice

[Esooa]

Hally I will not read that, i have a life

lmfao

[TonyStarkPrime]

Trustfall:

1. Falcon - Doin his own thing and doing it well
2. Tedextr - Seems genuinely concerned that he's being misrepresented and unfairly maligned, and the michelle townread does somewhat move the needle for me
3. Nanook - Seems within town meta, has little reason
4. Odd - somethin somethin mech
5. Sloonei - Town.
6. Esooa - Good reaction to multiball stuff
7. Strawhenge - people say lock town, I follow. And d1 derp.
9. Staypositivefriend - Very towny and unaligned from marmot, making the thread better
10. KZA - Unaligned with Marmot perhaps, and claim stuff, and D1 reaction to pressure looked good
12. Dom - he abandoned his team if he had one, that's kinda angleshooty but I maybe agree that wolf dom would have gone for a concerted effort. wifom idk.
14. TSP - has green role card
15. Long Con - Decent progressions, I think within town LC meta more than scum LC meta.
16. Fingersplints - this is the hardest one for me. I don't really know them though, a lot of my trs have found them towny and I think some of their posts demonstrate a clear attempt to work through a thought process
17. Tutuu -- Hally - Mac has good reads and thought they were town
18. JPIC - Has been doing some decent thread stuff, maintained a decent post count and energy at least through day 1.
19. Michelle - Unafraid of anything. That town read on ted is almost always town.
20. Alison - mech stuff
21. BoKnows - Posting like crazy, seems unconcerned by thread position and is attempting to help.
22. Al Sama - michelle townreads them and knows them, I think the superkill thing is actually probably more towny than not

[Sloonei]

Players I feel best about in the Trustfall/Distrustfall exercise: Hally, Alison, SPF, Falcon
Players I feel pretty good about, but not quite as good as above: Bo, Strawhenge
Players I felt better about than I expected to: Michelle, Esooa, KZA
Players I was ambivalent about/could go either way: fingersplints, Long Con, TSP, Oddmerta, JPIC

That leaves me with the following players in a group that I felt more strongly about in the distrustfall than the trustfall exercise:
al_sama, dom, nanook, ted

That is four names, and four is almost certainly not enough to net us all of the mafia members left in the game.
I did not include a tier for "players I felt worse about than I expected." If I had done that, Odd and fingersplints would have been the names on the list. I do not wish to give the impression that either of them are outright suspects right now, but if anyone took a hit in this exercise, it was the two of them.

I have no read on JPIC except that he's not aligned with Marmot. I do not have time to sort him out this instant.

[Sloonei]

Hally I will not read that, i have a life

lmfao

As the author of the post in question, this was my reaction too.