Fargo Mafia [Game Ends]

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

I can't believe I missed a chance to bond with ted rip

[staypositivefriend]

catching up with this thread consistently gave me the feeling of: "oh no, the consensus is wrong!", but when i take a step back and evaluate the game holistically, things still feel okay. i have no reason to doubt that alison and sloonei and hally are villagers at the moment. i feel pretty good about strawhenge and BoKnows being a villager. i think that fingersplint's posts today have been significantly villagery than they have all game, even though i'm not at the level where i would comfortably townlean her.

the problem is that the names get more difficult to sort out from that point forward - i think that oddmerta/falcon/esooa is a pool of mostly villagers, but it would not surprise me if there's a deepwolf in those names.

KZA/Long Con/JPIC/Michelle are broadly in the same tier of: "have done mildly villagery things but not enough to warrant a real townread", and that's a weird space for them to be in. i feel the best about michelle being a villager out of those names, and she maybe doesn't deserve to be in the same tier as the other three. even so, it would not surprise me if there's a wolf in that pool if the "consensus" POE comes up dry

i still feel that the pool of al_sama/tedxtr/tonystarkprime/nanook contains multiple wolves, but it probably does not solve the game. i echo the sentiments that this game is probably harder than we think - i think that there is a wolf buried deeper than any of us really suspect, but i don't believe that one hidden wolf is capable of turning the village away from the good direction we're heading in. i still feel mostly good about our trajectory

the question is just who i should vote in that pool of al_sama/tedxtr/tonystarkprime/nanook

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

At the risk of being yelled at for tunnel vision, here's another ted thing I dislike:

i have no read on tsp fwiw - i just voted him for self pres reasons lol

"I have no reason to vote for TSP other than self-preservation."

Okay then, how about we move that self-pres vote to nanook?

what's the nook stuff?

"Hm maybe, but I would need a reason to vote for nanook"

*crickets*

[VOTE: LC ] aubergine

"I will now self-preserve with a vote on LC."

That woild only be contradictory if he also said he had no read on me

Maybe has but I haven't seen him say it

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

At the risk of being yelled at for tunnel vision, here's another ted thing I dislike:

i have no read on tsp fwiw - i just voted him for self pres reasons lol

"I have no reason to vote for TSP other than self-preservation."

Okay then, how about we move that self-pres vote to nanook?

what's the nook stuff?

"Hm maybe, but I would need a reason to vote for nanook"

*crickets*

[VOTE: LC ] aubergine

"I will now self-preserve with a vote on LC."

That woild only be contradictory if he also said he had no read on me

Maybe has but I haven't seen him say it

*maybe he has

[staypositivefriend]

i hope you'll feel absolutely amazing after my flip, most of my content today was only addressing your tunnel that you probably won't even shift from

and you keep asking me questions like you want your mind changed / it's gonna change

i am sure that the emotion in this post is genuine, but i do not like how ted utilizes the ATE here. "you'll feel bad after I flip" is just the type of line that i see from wolves more often than not

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Yes "none" of "us" suspect the game could be hard and there could be a mafia "we" are misclearing

[Sloonei]

At the risk of being yelled at for tunnel vision, here's another ted thing I dislike:

i have no read on tsp fwiw - i just voted him for self pres reasons lol

"I have no reason to vote for TSP other than self-preservation."

Okay then, how about we move that self-pres vote to nanook?

what's the nook stuff?

"Hm maybe, but I would need a reason to vote for nanook"

*crickets*

[VOTE: LC ] aubergine

"I will now self-preserve with a vote on LC."

That woild only be contradictory if he also said he had no read on me

Maybe has but I haven't seen him say it

*maybe he has

@tedxtr has said virtually nothing about you this game.

[staypositivefriend]

[VOTE: tedextr] aubergine

[tedxtr]

lol

have fun

[tedxtr]

self-preserve with an lc vote

when i was the only person voting for lc

gjge

[tedxtr]

i've handled this for 96 hours but no more

[Sloonei]

[VOTE: tedxtr] aubergine

I need to go to work shortly. I will not be back for the deadline. This is my final vote. I will reiterate the crux of my ted suspicion:

His progression on Marmot is hard to believe. It begins with this ISO post in which ted comes to a town read on Marmot. I question the authenticity of ted's analysis here: much of it is scant. He throws a few pointed questions at marmot posts, but also has 3-4 posts where says some iteration of "this is fine" without any elaboration on what is fine about those posts. The end result, in its entirety, is "marmot seems like a villager." I get that not everyone is looking to post a comprehensive argument for their worldview in every post, but this is hardly a convincing effort from ted.

Nonetheless, he does establish himself as firmly pro-Marmot in that post. Marmot is gaining some traction as a candidate at this point. Here I'd like to note that in GoC 2019, ted and I were mafia partners. Early in that game, ted voluntarily opted to go for an over-the-top strong defense of one of our partners in the thread (I think it was Mac?). So Ted is not the type of player who will shy away from bold moves like hard-defending a teammate who is under pressure. He is also a player who has shown a willingness to play into the expectations of what a mafioso is likely to do and look like in certain situations.

Having positioned himself as an opponent to the Marmot wagon, ted starts to reach out to those who are propagating it:

alison - did you post the marmot case anywhere?

Alison provides Marmot with a fairly direct and well-substantiated response. Ted's response to that is...

Spoiler: show

alison - did you post the marmot case anywhere?

I suspect Marmot based on one interaction.

@KZA why are you so staunch in your townread of Sloonei?

I don't think I have been? I'm not worried about him right now so no reason to redact the read anyway

Maybe that wasn't the right word. I saw you called him town multiple times, but I couldn't find an explanation before.

His early case on Alison seemed like a reasonable Sloonei thought even if I didn't really agree with it

This is a reasonable KZA thought.

This interaction markets itself as being two townies doing solving and analyzing each other. However reading through it I can't find any evidence that either of them genuinely care about exposing the other's alignments. It's a bunch of play-acting and blowing smoke up town's asses.

got it

and i'm fine with a kza vote since i had a few thoughts on that slot myself early on

During my exchange with ted earlier, we ended up getting stuck on the phrase "Got it" because he claims he did not respond further to Alison's case because he disagreed with it and had nothing to add, and I don't think that "Got it" is how I would respond if that was the message I was trying to convey. But that point alone is not the extent of my gripe here.
I also object to this because of overall the progression from ted. It begins with the ISO:
- Ted is presumably inspired to ISO Marmot because he is becoming a suspect.
- Ted ISOs Marmot and comes to the conclusion that he "seems like a villager."
- Ted asks a player he views as leading the charge against Marmot to explain her case; she suggests that Marmot and KZA had a potentially incriminating interaction.
- Ted acknowledges the case. Ted responds to the case by shifting his attention to KZA, expressing a willingness to vote for him.

It reads like Ted is interested in engaging in a discussion about the Marmot case at first in the interest (if he's a civilian) of developing his read further. But once he gets that case, his response feels unnatural: he does not push any further on the discussion about Marmot. He pivots instead to the other player who is mentioned in Alison's case, even though both Marmot and KZA are implicated in it.

And then there was this:

no, but for real, apart from alison's explanation, why are people voting marmot?

What in the actual fuck?

Why do you give the faintest shit?

because he was one of my few isos that i've looked into and i came up with a slight town read and just don't see any reason to vote for him

are you finding it unreasonable?

No not at all quite reasonable keep at it.

if you're trolling : how is it unreasonable?

if you're not trolling : reaction tests don't work on me

The mindset required for you to take issue with that wagon requires the following steps.

1. Need to ISO Marmot
2. Discovery that he is slightly townie
3. Observation that he has a wagon
4. Recognisation that it requires flagging

My issue is in point 3 and 4.

Problem the first. SPF and Michelle are not present to answer you. That is very apparent. So nobody currently wagoning rodent boy can even answer. Which makes your question an effort in posturing.

Problem the second. Who cares about someone having a 2 vote wagon containing people that may not even be up to date on the haps in a composition where there are multiple wagons greater than said number?

because he's being voted by people that usually have good reasons for votes and i wanna see what those reasons are

which is why i'm asking about it

I highlighted this exact progression in my Ted ISO at the start of the day, so I'm repeating myself here. But Ted starts from a position that reads to me as a protest against the Marmot votes; "Marmot is being voted for little to no reason." This point is reiterated in a separate post that Ted made near EoD, here. But once Mac starts grilling him over this gripe, Ted's position changes from the apparent protest, to "The people voting for Marmot usually have good reasons, so I am interested in hearing what they have to say." But I think that looks false. For one he will later go on to dismiss the argument against Marmot as "he's not doing much", which is not a good-faith rendering of what the case was at the time. Two, he had previously asked Alison for her case against Marmot and, when he received it, did not appear remotely interested in it.
I would also like to acknowledge Mac's original gripes in the moment here: Ted's posturing about Marmot may well be hollow given the timing of it. Marmot evidently only has two votes, and they are from two players who have not been in the thread for a while, and are not there at the moment. Kudos to Mac for bringing us this exchange.

That is my major gripe with Day 1 Ted. I did not love his Day 2 either. I thought his response to my pressure (both initially and a couple of hours ago) looked like it could be ted playing up the theatrics to appear like a civilian who is bothered by pressure (refer back to my experience with Ted in GoC 2019).

I have to go. I could still see a world in which ted is town, but I also feel overwhelmingly like he is my most concrete suspect. Nanook would be my second preference after him today, but I trust you all to make the correct decisions as we move word the deadline.

[falcon45ca]

[VOTE: tedxtr] aubergine

I need to go to work shortly. I will not be back for the deadline. This is my final vote. I will reiterate the crux of my ted suspicion:

His progression on Marmot is hard to believe. It begins with this ISO post in which ted comes to a town read on Marmot. I question the authenticity of ted's analysis here: much of it is scant. He throws a few pointed questions at marmot posts, but also has 3-4 posts where says some iteration of "this is fine" without any elaboration on what is fine about those posts. The end result, in its entirety, is "marmot seems like a villager." I get that not everyone is looking to post a comprehensive argument for their worldview in every post, but this is hardly a convincing effort from ted.

Nonetheless, he does establish himself as firmly pro-Marmot in that post. Marmot is gaining some traction as a candidate at this point. Here I'd like to note that in GoC 2019, ted and I were mafia partners. Early in that game, ted voluntarily opted to go for an over-the-top strong defense of one of our partners in the thread (I think it was Mac?). So Ted is not the type of player who will shy away from bold moves like hard-defending a teammate who is under pressure. He is also a player who has shown a willingness to play into the expectations of what a mafioso is likely to do and look like in certain situations.

Having positioned himself as an opponent to the Marmot wagon, ted starts to reach out to those who are propagating it:

alison - did you post the marmot case anywhere?

Alison provides Marmot with a fairly direct and well-substantiated response. Ted's response to that is...

Spoiler: show

alison - did you post the marmot case anywhere?

I suspect Marmot based on one interaction.

I don't think I have been? I'm not worried about him right now so no reason to redact the read anyway

Maybe that wasn't the right word. I saw you called him town multiple times, but I couldn't find an explanation before.

His early case on Alison seemed like a reasonable Sloonei thought even if I didn't really agree with it

This is a reasonable KZA thought.

This interaction markets itself as being two townies doing solving and analyzing each other. However reading through it I can't find any evidence that either of them genuinely care about exposing the other's alignments. It's a bunch of play-acting and blowing smoke up town's asses.

got it

and i'm fine with a kza vote since i had a few thoughts on that slot myself early on

During my exchange with ted earlier, we ended up getting stuck on the phrase "Got it" because he claims he did not respond further to Alison's case because he disagreed with it and had nothing to add, and I don't think that "Got it" is how I would respond if that was the message I was trying to convey. But that point alone is not the extent of my gripe here.
I also object to this because of overall the progression from ted. It begins with the ISO:
- Ted is presumably inspired to ISO Marmot because he is becoming a suspect.
- Ted ISOs Marmot and comes to the conclusion that he "seems like a villager."
- Ted asks a player he views as leading the charge against Marmot to explain her case; she suggests that Marmot and KZA had a potentially incriminating interaction.
- Ted acknowledges the case. Ted responds to the case by shifting his attention to KZA, expressing a willingness to vote for him.

It reads like Ted is interested in engaging in a discussion about the Marmot case at first in the interest (if he's a civilian) of developing his read further. But once he gets that case, his response feels unnatural: he does not push any further on the discussion about Marmot. He pivots instead to the other player who is mentioned in Alison's case, even though both Marmot and KZA are implicated in it.

And then there was this:

no, but for real, apart from alison's explanation, why are people voting marmot?

What in the actual fuck?

Why do you give the faintest shit?

because he was one of my few isos that i've looked into and i came up with a slight town read and just don't see any reason to vote for him

are you finding it unreasonable?

No not at all quite reasonable keep at it.

if you're trolling : how is it unreasonable?

if you're not trolling : reaction tests don't work on me

The mindset required for you to take issue with that wagon requires the following steps.

1. Need to ISO Marmot
2. Discovery that he is slightly townie
3. Observation that he has a wagon
4. Recognisation that it requires flagging

My issue is in point 3 and 4.

Problem the first. SPF and Michelle are not present to answer you. That is very apparent. So nobody currently wagoning rodent boy can even answer. Which makes your question an effort in posturing.

Problem the second. Who cares about someone having a 2 vote wagon containing people that may not even be up to date on the haps in a composition where there are multiple wagons greater than said number?

because he's being voted by people that usually have good reasons for votes and i wanna see what those reasons are

which is why i'm asking about it

I highlighted this exact progression in my Ted ISO at the start of the day, so I'm repeating myself here. But Ted starts from a position that reads to me as a protest against the Marmot votes; "Marmot is being voted for little to no reason." This point is reiterated in a separate post that Ted made near EoD, here. But once Mac starts grilling him over this gripe, Ted's position changes from the apparent protest, to "The people voting for Marmot usually have good reasons, so I am interested in hearing what they have to say." But I think that looks false. For one he will later go on to dismiss the argument against Marmot as "he's not doing much", which is not a good-faith rendering of what the case was at the time. Two, he had previously asked Alison for her case against Marmot and, when he received it, did not appear remotely interested in it.
I would also like to acknowledge Mac's original gripes in the moment here: Ted's posturing about Marmot may well be hollow given the timing of it. Marmot evidently only has two votes, and they are from two players who have not been in the thread for a while, and are not there at the moment. Kudos to Mac for bringing us this exchange.

That is my major gripe with Day 1 Ted. I did not love his Day 2 either. I thought his response to my pressure (both initially and a couple of hours ago) looked like it could be ted playing up the theatrics to appear like a civilian who is bothered by pressure (refer back to my experience with Ted in GoC 2019).

I have to go. I could still see a world in which ted is town, but I also feel overwhelmingly like he is my most concrete suspect. Nanook would be my second preference after him today, but I trust you all to make the correct decisions as we move word the deadline.

I didn't read this, but it looks well thought out.


[VOTE: VOTE TED] aubergine

[Sloonei]

self-preserve with an lc vote

when i was the only person voting for lc

gjge

Your thoughts on nanook would be helpful.

[Hally]

lc has claimed he targeted alison N1 and was roleblocked. but the only way he’d know he was roleblocked is if he’s an investigative role or a killing role. what villager targets alison with an investigative or killing action N1? iirc lc was suspicious of alison but like... really?

on the other hand, why openly claim he targeted alison and was roleblocked as a wolf? he could just... not do that

watcher? voyeur?

possibly. but he didn’t trust alison. doesn’t really make sense for him to target her with that

[Hally]

you guys are no fun

tsp lock mafia for not engaging in this experiment because he's scared!!!

[VOTE: tsp ] aubergine

are you catting? or what?

[Sloonei]

I didn't read this, but it looks well thought out.


[VOTE: VOTE TED] aubergine

Democracy in action

[Hally]

w/e, ted can die. glgl

[tedxtr]

you’re too serious about werewolf

it’s me going back to my counterwagon, except i made it in a joke form

[Hally]

you’re too serious about werewolf

it’s me going back to my counterwagon, except i made it in a joke form

yea, i don’t think i was a cat

[Sloonei]

The syndicate thinks everything is a cat.

[tedxtr]

i hope you at least have fun

Cuz i didn’t in my past 2 games

[tedxtr]

spf i have faith in you to carry if you’re a villager

that’s all

[staypositivefriend]

just a general question for everyone here:

if we assume for a moment that the consensus POE is 100% incorrect (ie: tedextr, nanook, TSP, al_sama are all villagers), where is the first place that you would look? who do you think we would be misclearing?

[staypositivefriend]

spf i have faith in you to carry if you’re a villager

that’s all

i feel like this is a roundabout way of ATE'ing me but it's nice regardless

[tedxtr]

spf i have faith in you to carry if you’re a villager

that’s all

i feel like this is a roundabout way of ATE'ing me but it's nice regardless

lol, as if your vote would be the tiebreaker or something

it’s the truth

[Hally]

there’s a nonzero chance that ted is actually on the other team and is legitimately frustrated that he’s being buried for his association to marmot that actually doesn’t exist

i don’t know how likely this is but it would be funny

[tedxtr]

there’s a nonzero chance that ted is actually on the other team and is legitimately frustrated that he’s being buried for his association to marmot that actually doesn’t exist

i don’t know how likely this is but it would be funny

nah, just a villager

[Sloonei]

just a general question for everyone here:

if we assume for a moment that the consensus POE is 100% incorrect (ie: tedextr, nanook, TSP, al_sama are all villagers), where is the first place that you would look? who do you think we would be misclearing?

The Canucks

[Hally]

there’s a nonzero chance that ted is actually on the other team and is legitimately frustrated that he’s being buried for his association to marmot that actually doesn’t exist

i don’t know how likely this is but it would be funny

nah, just a villager

that’s also a legitimate possibility. sorry if that’s the case

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Good lord what a predictable answer

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Sloon going full on syndicate clique

[Long Con]

LOL

Sloonei is teamed with TSP. He's going HARD against ted to save TSP.

Look at his ISO. Ctrl-F for TSP. Sloonei has never said much about TSP besides he looks all right or pretty good, and he's not teamed with Marmot.

[VOTE: tonystarkprime] aubergine But if you want Sloonei I am there.

[Long Con]

I think ted is town. It's done. Tony-Sloonei team. Save ted.

[tedxtr]

LOL

Sloonei is teamed with TSP. He's going HARD against ted to save TSP.

Look at his ISO. Ctrl-F for TSP. Sloonei has never said much about TSP besides he looks all right or pretty good, and he's not teamed with Marmot.

[VOTE: tonystarkprime] aubergine But if you want Sloonei I am there.

I hope so

It would alleviate my rage

[Long Con]

LOL

Sloonei is teamed with TSP. He's going HARD against ted to save TSP.

Look at his ISO. Ctrl-F for TSP. Sloonei has never said much about TSP besides he looks all right or pretty good, and he's not teamed with Marmot.

[VOTE: tonystarkprime] aubergine But if you want Sloonei I am there.

I hope so

It would alleviate my rage

I believe you, bro. Don't let me down, and I promise to give you the exact same courtesy.

[Hally]

LOL

Sloonei is teamed with TSP. He's going HARD against ted to save TSP.

Look at his ISO. Ctrl-F for TSP. Sloonei has never said much about TSP besides he looks all right or pretty good, and he's not teamed with Marmot.

[VOTE: tonystarkprime] aubergine But if you want Sloonei I am there.

this feels very out of nowhere

[KZA]

What if Long Con is right but Long Con and Ted are also teamed

[tedxtr]

LOL

Sloonei is teamed with TSP. He's going HARD against ted to save TSP.

Look at his ISO. Ctrl-F for TSP. Sloonei has never said much about TSP besides he looks all right or pretty good, and he's not teamed with Marmot.

[VOTE: tonystarkprime] aubergine But if you want Sloonei I am there.

this feels very out of nowhere

he’s outing to save me, obviously

[tedxtr]

What if Long Con is right but Long Con and Ted are also teamed

LOL

[Long Con]

Sloonei is deliberately making a mountain out of a molehill with his ted case, JUST so folks like falcon will do what he did.

[KZA]

LOL

Sloonei is teamed with TSP. He's going HARD against ted to save TSP.

Look at his ISO. Ctrl-F for TSP. Sloonei has never said much about TSP besides he looks all right or pretty good, and he's not teamed with Marmot.

[VOTE: tonystarkprime] aubergine But if you want Sloonei I am there.

this feels very out of nowhere

Yeah I think it's a reasonable thought but the timing also weirded me out

[Long Con]

LOL

Sloonei is teamed with TSP. He's going HARD against ted to save TSP.

Look at his ISO. Ctrl-F for TSP. Sloonei has never said much about TSP besides he looks all right or pretty good, and he's not teamed with Marmot.

[VOTE: tonystarkprime] aubergine But if you want Sloonei I am there.

this feels very out of nowhere

My Sloonei suspicion??

[staypositivefriend]

Sloonei is deliberately making a mountain out of a molehill with his ted case, JUST so folks like falcon will do what he did.

would you bank the game on ted being town?

[Long Con]

LOL

Sloonei is teamed with TSP. He's going HARD against ted to save TSP.

Look at his ISO. Ctrl-F for TSP. Sloonei has never said much about TSP besides he looks all right or pretty good, and he's not teamed with Marmot.

[VOTE: tonystarkprime] aubergine But if you want Sloonei I am there.

this feels very out of nowhere

Yeah I think it's a reasonable thought but the timing also weirded me out

The timing was due to Sloonei's wallpost. I read it and said "this is bullshit" and went from there.

[tedxtr]

Sloonei is deliberately making a mountain out of a molehill with his ted case, JUST so folks like falcon will do what he did.

would you bank the game on ted being town?

spicy

[Long Con]

Sloonei is deliberately making a mountain out of a molehill with his ted case, JUST so folks like falcon will do what he did.

would you bank the game on ted being town?

Absolutely not. I just believe he's town.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

I'm really close to just saying LC is town tbh

[Hally]

actually it’s not that out of nowhere. lc said earlier he suspected sloonei more than ted

[tedxtr]

alright lc i changed my mind, you’re part of the villa crew