Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 7]
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Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 1]
probably we want constant detail on nanook and then allow townies to use their best judgement to protect other townies?
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Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 1]
Dude, why is everything i say insulting to everyone here.NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 10:20 pmK, insulting me isn't the way to go hereGuillotine wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 10:18 pmIt's not ego. Just because you are confirmed town it does not mean that whatever you come up with is the perfect plan or solve to win the game, pull your head out of your buttocks and work with me. We have had our differences but im not a thrower.NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 10:13 pm Like I don't really want to policy shoot but I also don't want to lose because someone can't follow a plan cause they have too much ego, y'know
It's not you specifically, it's anyone that won't agree to follow the mech plan. Like...that's just how this game is, it requires cooperation, so the choices are either work with the group or get shot
You're welcome to give input on the plan obviously, but if you're just gonna say "no fuck that im not following any plans!" That's just...not something we can afford in this setup, lol

Im not opposed to plans, just take it from someone whom is great at turning plans made by town against them as a wolf, you gotta have a wild card, someone capable of doing an 180 on the wolves without risking a throw. The moment you commit to a plan in mafia, that is the moment you lose because scum can manipulate that.
Im not saying i dont want yo cooperate, i do, im saying… we dont want to lay it all out for scum.
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Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 1]
I think I'm only liking falcon45ca and Urist right now.
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Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 1]
Oh, Creature suckin up to Nook, eh?Creature wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 10:09 pmNot opposed to this. Waiting 48 hours for a flip feels unbearable.NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 10:05 pm I'm gonna shoot at 24 hour mark every day, first person to complain about it or call it anti-town gets shot today
[img][
we can't stop here...this is bat country!
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Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 1]
what i mean is that we need to ensure the risk of losing by leaving nanook unprotected is less than the risk of scum losing by missing out on a kill. for example, if we assume scum have a WR of 50% going into n1, and if we assume that scum WR drops to 45% if the kill fails, then as long as we keep the risk of nanook being unprotected under 5% we're good.NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 10:22 pmIt's scum's probability of winning if they target Nanook exclusively.Urist wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 10:15 pmthe acceptable risk is roughly:NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:55 pmYeah, I'll calculate how much we can allot to that after... And once we all agree on the risk factor, we lock it in and stop playing the mechanics, and just play mafia.
the amount of "winrate" scum loses by missing a kill... minus 1%
i haven't done any of the math with regard to winrates but i'm pretty sure the logic is fine.
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Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 1]
@NotAnAxehole do you know scum's chance of winning if they miss every kill?
Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 1]
A vanilla nightless town EV is calculated through [NUMBER OF TOWN PLAYERS - NUMBER OF MAFIA PLAYERS]/[NUMBER OF TOTAL PLAYERS] so an 11:4 nightless town EV would be: [11 - 4]/[15] = 46.67% or wolves EV = 53.33%.
Of course, the wolves EV should be slightly lower than that considering one of the town players is confirmed.
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Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 1]
"i believe nanook can kill mafia quickly"NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:45 pm Ok, so basic risk calculation indicates that if we all roll 3, and we only save on a 3 (1/3 of the time)... There's a 1.7% probability of mafia winning instantly with a shot on Nanook -> This isn't a viable shot for them.
If we maintain a ~1.5-2% chance each day (just need to calculate the numbers for each amount of pandas), every scenario, should be trivial...
That gives mafia about a 7% chance of winning in by day 4 (exclusive targeting Nanook), 13% chance with 8 days of targeting...
This is a very good number for town, and I think Nanook can kill mafia faster than this.. I have not calculated the probability of us running out of saves, but I would probably do that privately...
Nobody ever saves anyone but Nanook, and nobody ever claims saves.
*does math assuming nanook will shoot wrong d1*
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Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 1]
Hi I am perfect and I hardclaim Blue Panda.

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Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?
The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
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Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 1]
s = scum remaining
t = town remaining
d = doctor shots remaining
Pn = odds of protecting nanook
Po = odds of protecting someone else (the target is left to the individual panda's discretion)
Pn = (d / s) * (1 - (t / (s + t)))
Po = Pn / 3
In general, the odds of nanook being unprotected by anyone are (1 - Pn) ^ t
So on night one, regardless of who's eliminated, the probabilities work out to...
Pn = (4 / 4) * (1 - (10 / (4 + 10))) = ~28.6%
Po = Pn / 3 = ~9.5%
The chance of nanook being unprotected is only ~3.5% which is close to ideal imo. Anything under 2% is too low because we'll likely run out of protects too quickly.
I think this formula achieves the goals of:
1) making a protect on nanook more likely if scum have fewer players left alive.
2) making a protect less likely if you've already protected before.
3) allowing a small chance of protecting a townie who isn't nanook, to give the opportunity for saves in other places.
t = town remaining
d = doctor shots remaining
Pn = odds of protecting nanook
Po = odds of protecting someone else (the target is left to the individual panda's discretion)
Pn = (d / s) * (1 - (t / (s + t)))
Po = Pn / 3
In general, the odds of nanook being unprotected by anyone are (1 - Pn) ^ t
So on night one, regardless of who's eliminated, the probabilities work out to...
Pn = (4 / 4) * (1 - (10 / (4 + 10))) = ~28.6%
Po = Pn / 3 = ~9.5%
The chance of nanook being unprotected is only ~3.5% which is close to ideal imo. Anything under 2% is too low because we'll likely run out of protects too quickly.
I think this formula achieves the goals of:
1) making a protect on nanook more likely if scum have fewer players left alive.
2) making a protect less likely if you've already protected before.
3) allowing a small chance of protecting a townie who isn't nanook, to give the opportunity for saves in other places.
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Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 1]
Im not good at plans but i think i got the plan to keep wolves at bay with our saves.
1) We establish the PoE
2) Assign one player in PoE to protect Nanook.
3) If for any reason Nanook dies, that means the PoE player didnt protect Nanook.
4) Repeat.
That way we make our PoE protect our red panda and the non-poe choose to protect whoever they townread! Genius!
What you think?
1) We establish the PoE
2) Assign one player in PoE to protect Nanook.
3) If for any reason Nanook dies, that means the PoE player didnt protect Nanook.
4) Repeat.
That way we make our PoE protect our red panda and the non-poe choose to protect whoever they townread! Genius!
What you think?
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Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 1]
CorrectionGuillotine wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 12:43 am Im not good at plans but i think i got the plan to keep wolves at bay with our saves.
1) We establish the PoE
2) Assign one player in PoE to protect Nanook and we chop them
3) If for any reason Nanook dies, that means the PoE player didnt protect Nanook.
4) Repeat.
That way we make our PoE protect our red panda and the non-poe choose to protect whoever they townread! Genius!
What you think?
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Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 1]
i can't even begin to understand how you thought this would workGuillotine wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 12:43 amCorrectionGuillotine wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 12:43 am Im not good at plans but i think i got the plan to keep wolves at bay with our saves.
1) We establish the PoE
2) Assign one player in PoE to protect Nanook and we chop them
3) If for any reason Nanook dies, that means the PoE player didnt protect Nanook.
4) Repeat.
That way we make our PoE protect our red panda and the non-poe choose to protect whoever they townread! Genius!
What you think?
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Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 1]
like yes, your range is infinite and yes you're The Amazing Guillo, but c'mon, why fake that when you can just "be town"
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Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 1]
I need some sleep ¯\\_(ツ)\_/¯Urist wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 12:56 ami can't even begin to understand how you thought this would workGuillotine wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 12:43 amCorrectionGuillotine wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 12:43 am Im not good at plans but i think i got the plan to keep wolves at bay with our saves.
1) We establish the PoE
2) Assign one player in PoE to protect Nanook and we chop them
3) If for any reason Nanook dies, that means the PoE player didnt protect Nanook.
4) Repeat.
That way we make our PoE protect our red panda and the non-poe choose to protect whoever they townread! Genius!
What you think?
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Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 1]
DDL is a wolf
Guillo is town
Nanook is IC
falcon is town
NAA could be mafia
Creature is town
hk is town
that's my solve so far, how'd I do?
Guillo is town
Nanook is IC
falcon is town
NAA could be mafia
Creature is town
hk is town
that's my solve so far, how'd I do?

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Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?
The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
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Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 1]
[/quote]
I am not good with the math, this made my brain melt.
I liked the idea of the dice roll, because it makes it harder for the mafia to manipulate. However, it also makes it less like we can gain any information from a NK either because they are literally just taking a shot in the dark. Votes won't really give us much information either because they don't mean anything. A wolf can bus their teammate easily because their vote is meaningless in the end since Nook chooses who dies. This will make it a lot harder to sus out who is suspicious. This feels a bit like a crap shoot. I didn't really pay attention to the setup before I joined, so I didn't even realize this was how it was setup.
Given it's a crap shoot, I can't see any benefit to claiming, so maybe let's go with the dice rolling idea. However, can we modify it? Like, if you roll anything other than a three you roll again to see if you protect someone else or yourself, or something like that? Would that lower the chances they will thin our numbers out too quickly? I'll leave answering that to the mathematicians of the group.
Urist wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 12:33 am s = scum remaining
t = town remaining
d = doctor shots remaining
Pn = odds of protecting nanook
Po = odds of protecting someone else (the target is left to the individual panda's discretion)
Pn = (d / s) * (1 - (t / (s + t)))
Po = Pn / 3
In general, the odds of nanook being unprotected by anyone are (1 - Pn) ^ t
So on night one, regardless of who's eliminated, the probabilities work out to...
Pn = (4 / 4) * (1 - (10 / (4 + 10))) = ~28.6%
Po = Pn / 3 = ~9.5%
The chance of nanook being unprotected is only ~3.5% which is close to ideal imo. Anything under 2% is too low because we'll likely run out of protects too quickly.
I think this formula achieves the goals of:
1) making a protect on nanook more likely if scum have fewer players left alive.
2) making a protect less likely if you've already protected before.
3) allowing a small chance of protecting a townie who isn't nanook, to give the opportunity for saves in other places.

I am not good with the math, this made my brain melt.
I liked the idea of the dice roll, because it makes it harder for the mafia to manipulate. However, it also makes it less like we can gain any information from a NK either because they are literally just taking a shot in the dark. Votes won't really give us much information either because they don't mean anything. A wolf can bus their teammate easily because their vote is meaningless in the end since Nook chooses who dies. This will make it a lot harder to sus out who is suspicious. This feels a bit like a crap shoot. I didn't really pay attention to the setup before I joined, so I didn't even realize this was how it was setup.

Given it's a crap shoot, I can't see any benefit to claiming, so maybe let's go with the dice rolling idea. However, can we modify it? Like, if you roll anything other than a three you roll again to see if you protect someone else or yourself, or something like that? Would that lower the chances they will thin our numbers out too quickly? I'll leave answering that to the mathematicians of the group.
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Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 1]
Oh and also, currently reading Guillo and Creature as town.
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Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 1]
Odd NightsUrist wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 12:33 am s = scum remaining
t = town remaining
d = doctor shots remaining
Pn = odds of protecting nanook
Po = odds of protecting someone else (the target is left to the individual panda's discretion)
Pn = (d / s) * (1 - (t / (s + t)))
Po = Pn / 3
In general, the odds of nanook being unprotected by anyone are (1 - Pn) ^ t
So on night one, regardless of who's eliminated, the probabilities work out to...
Pn = (4 / 4) * (1 - (10 / (4 + 10))) = ~28.6%
Po = Pn / 3 = ~9.5%
The chance of nanook being unprotected is only ~3.5% which is close to ideal imo. Anything under 2% is too low because we'll likely run out of protects too quickly.
I think this formula achieves the goals of:
1) making a protect on nanook more likely if scum have fewer players left alive.
2) making a protect less likely if you've already protected before.
3) allowing a small chance of protecting a townie who isn't nanook, to give the opportunity for saves in other places.
Panda % No Save % Save
10 0.666666667 0.333333333
9 0.633333333 0.366666667
8 0.6 0.4
7 0.55 0.45
6 0.5 0.5
5 0.45 0.55
4 0.35 0.65
3 0.25 0.75
2 0.15 0.85
Even Nights
Panda % No Save % Save
9 0.6 0.4
8 0.55 0.45
7 0.5 0.5
6 0.45 0.55
5 0.35 0.65
4 0.25 0.75
3 0.1 0.9
2 0 1
Realistically, @NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME has max 2 miss-chops. If we stick to this, only using saves on Nanook, then by N5 (which is the longest we have to hold out in this scenario) we should on average have 1.8 saves per player on average... This is basically a worst-case winning scenario calculated based on the misschops being D1 & D2. Misschops later in the game offer more flexibility than early.
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Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 1]
Are you saying he should only read and react to pings? If so,weird take. He controls the elimination, I think he should probably be up to speed on what is happening in the thread.hollowkatt wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 10:16 pm that's probably ideal from nanook tbh to just read and maybe react to pings or something like that
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Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 1]
Oh, maybe hk was saying that Nook not posting much is a good plan. Not sure either, if this makes a difference, but I can understand Nook wanting to observe more than interact.NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 10:14 pm Anyways I'm not gonna post much, you guys do your thing
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Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 1]
In order to extend the game, we need 2 saves, and we need to spend fewer shots making those saves than what we conserve from saving them... making a singular save, or more than 2 saves is probably -EV due to the clock we're on with 4 saves apiece.
Or we take more risk on Nanook...
I propose that we double the risk on Nanook on even nights, nights 2 and 4 - In order for Scum to go for him, they need to risk 2 KP, which is a bigger gamble than even nights. If we have our 2 saves before Night 4, then we scrap the plan and go with the standard risk I presented in my last post.
Or we take more risk on Nanook...
I propose that we double the risk on Nanook on even nights, nights 2 and 4 - In order for Scum to go for him, they need to risk 2 KP, which is a bigger gamble than even nights. If we have our 2 saves before Night 4, then we scrap the plan and go with the standard risk I presented in my last post.
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Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 1]
Oh god, more math.
I'm thinking about it, and I like the dice roll idea, but it's statistics, and just because it's low doesn't mean it can't happen. If somehow no one protects Nook and he gets hit, we're done. We can't risk that.
What if we mix the ideas of stacking protects and dice roll. Something like, stack protection on Nook, two on one kill nights, and three on two kill nights. And then everyone else rolls to possibly protect someone else (either one of the ones protecting Nook or someone else they think might be at risk), or themselves, or not protect at all? Because if they mafia know who is unprotected, it makes it easy for them to pick us off. But we can't risk completely random because we might accidentally end up with nook unprotected, right?
Someone want to do math on that? Is it sustainable for the length of the game or are we going to run out of kills too quickly if we stack too methodically on Nook?
I'm thinking about it, and I like the dice roll idea, but it's statistics, and just because it's low doesn't mean it can't happen. If somehow no one protects Nook and he gets hit, we're done. We can't risk that.
What if we mix the ideas of stacking protects and dice roll. Something like, stack protection on Nook, two on one kill nights, and three on two kill nights. And then everyone else rolls to possibly protect someone else (either one of the ones protecting Nook or someone else they think might be at risk), or themselves, or not protect at all? Because if they mafia know who is unprotected, it makes it easy for them to pick us off. But we can't risk completely random because we might accidentally end up with nook unprotected, right?
Someone want to do math on that? Is it sustainable for the length of the game or are we going to run out of kills too quickly if we stack too methodically on Nook?
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Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 1]
No, we don't have any way to ensure Nanook is protected, and to have sufficient saves to play out the game. Coordinating saves on Nanook also gives scum an exact count.Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 2:23 am Oh god, more math.
I'm thinking about it, and I like the dice roll idea, but it's statistics, and just because it's low doesn't mean it can't happen. If somehow no one protects Nook and he gets hit, we're done. We can't risk that.
What if we mix the ideas of stacking protects and dice roll. Something like, stack protection on Nook, two on one kill nights, and three on two kill nights. And then everyone else rolls to possibly protect someone else (either one of the ones protecting Nook or someone else they think might be at risk), or themselves, or not protect at all? Because if they mafia know who is unprotected, it makes it easy for them to pick us off. But we can't risk completely random because we might accidentally end up with nook unprotected, right?
Someone want to do math on that? Is it sustainable for the length of the game or are we going to run out of kills too quickly if we stack too methodically on Nook?
No, we can't go around saving other people unless it's explicitly at the expense of saving Nanook, we don't have a lot of leeway when we have 4 saves for 5 nights... There isn't sufficient reason to protect ANYONE other than Nanook on odd nights, on even nights the risk/reward is debatable, but it'll really be case by case - I wouldn't recommend anyone putting a save out on non-Nanook unless they could comfortably make D6.
No, none of the ideas you presented are sustainable

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Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 1]
::shrug:: I don't believe anything is sustainable, and nothing I presented is original, so it doesn't hurt my feelings. Basically, I'll go with whatever plan we all determine is our best shot if it keeps me from having to think about more math. :P
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Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 1]
I don't think we should talk night strategy past this - On N2 if you still have 4 saves, and you miss Nanook, you can try to make a play...NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 2:09 amOdd NightsUrist wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 12:33 am s = scum remaining
t = town remaining
d = doctor shots remaining
Pn = odds of protecting nanook
Po = odds of protecting someone else (the target is left to the individual panda's discretion)
Pn = (d / s) * (1 - (t / (s + t)))
Po = Pn / 3
In general, the odds of nanook being unprotected by anyone are (1 - Pn) ^ t
So on night one, regardless of who's eliminated, the probabilities work out to...
Pn = (4 / 4) * (1 - (10 / (4 + 10))) = ~28.6%
Po = Pn / 3 = ~9.5%
The chance of nanook being unprotected is only ~3.5% which is close to ideal imo. Anything under 2% is too low because we'll likely run out of protects too quickly.
I think this formula achieves the goals of:
1) making a protect on nanook more likely if scum have fewer players left alive.
2) making a protect less likely if you've already protected before.
3) allowing a small chance of protecting a townie who isn't nanook, to give the opportunity for saves in other places.
Panda % No Save % Save
10 0.666666667 0.333333333
9 0.633333333 0.366666667
8 0.6 0.4
7 0.55 0.45
6 0.5 0.5
5 0.45 0.55
4 0.35 0.65
3 0.25 0.75
2 0.15 0.85
Even Nights
Panda % No Save % Save
9 0.6 0.4
8 0.55 0.45
7 0.5 0.5
6 0.45 0.55
5 0.35 0.65
4 0.25 0.75
3 0.1 0.9
2 0 1
Realistically, @NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME has max 2 miss-chops. If we stick to this, only using saves on Nanook, then by N5 (which is the longest we have to hold out in this scenario) we should on average have 1.8 saves per player on average... This is basically a worst-case winning scenario calculated based on the misschops being D1 & D2. Misschops later in the game offer more flexibility than early.

Even though I don't know how mechanically sound that is.
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Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 1]
Nah, Falcon is mafia, the rest might be right though.
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Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 1]
I don’t understand what you are saying.NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 2:47 amI don't think we should talk night strategy past this - On N2 if you still have 4 saves, and you miss Nanook, you can try to make a play...NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 2:09 amOdd NightsUrist wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 12:33 am s = scum remaining
t = town remaining
d = doctor shots remaining
Pn = odds of protecting nanook
Po = odds of protecting someone else (the target is left to the individual panda's discretion)
Pn = (d / s) * (1 - (t / (s + t)))
Po = Pn / 3
In general, the odds of nanook being unprotected by anyone are (1 - Pn) ^ t
So on night one, regardless of who's eliminated, the probabilities work out to...
Pn = (4 / 4) * (1 - (10 / (4 + 10))) = ~28.6%
Po = Pn / 3 = ~9.5%
The chance of nanook being unprotected is only ~3.5% which is close to ideal imo. Anything under 2% is too low because we'll likely run out of protects too quickly.
I think this formula achieves the goals of:
1) making a protect on nanook more likely if scum have fewer players left alive.
2) making a protect less likely if you've already protected before.
3) allowing a small chance of protecting a townie who isn't nanook, to give the opportunity for saves in other places.
Panda % No Save % Save
10 0.666666667 0.333333333
9 0.633333333 0.366666667
8 0.6 0.4
7 0.55 0.45
6 0.5 0.5
5 0.45 0.55
4 0.35 0.65
3 0.25 0.75
2 0.15 0.85
Even Nights
Panda % No Save % Save
9 0.6 0.4
8 0.55 0.45
7 0.5 0.5
6 0.45 0.55
5 0.35 0.65
4 0.25 0.75
3 0.1 0.9
2 0 1
Realistically, @NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME has max 2 miss-chops. If we stick to this, only using saves on Nanook, then by N5 (which is the longest we have to hold out in this scenario) we should on average have 1.8 saves per player on average... This is basically a worst-case winning scenario calculated based on the misschops being D1 & D2. Misschops later in the game offer more flexibility than early.![]()
Even though I don't know how mechanically sound that is.
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Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 1]
I’m only here for the pandas and am completely useless when it comes to mech discussion, but I will follow whatever plan is agreed upon
Gro-oo-ovy
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Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 1]
Hello, everyone.
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Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 1]
I don’t remember what we did mech wise last time, but I think it worked-ish. Except Nut shot the wrong people.
I think maybe we coordinated enough to have the shooter covered, and then could rogue protect likely other targets of it felt necessary.
I think maybe we coordinated enough to have the shooter covered, and then could rogue protect likely other targets of it felt necessary.
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Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 1]
Are people gonna have to spend another 2 rl weeks begging you to read the rules postGuillotine wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:10 pm Im telling you right now, i aint attempting to save anyone in this game but myself, i believes in flips over saves.
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Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 1]
Falcon doesn't have a truth tell.Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 8:42 pm Hmm
Not sure how hardcore your truth meta is in this case tbh, like theres no work to fake claim the only available town role. But some players have truth metas that are like a religion and they'd rather self-modkill than break them.
No, it's also a mafia game. We should all also solve alignments obviously, and that will also make it easier for Nanook as well as others to solve the game. That is how mafia works. For example, if my solving is good, I'm likely town. If my solving is bad, I'm likely mafia.NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:29 pm Also, for anyone who's confused, this isn't a mafia game, it's a statistics problem, with a side of mafia for Nanook to play.
Look at this obvious scum slip.
No, it's up to everyone to solve. It's up to you to make the kills.NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 10:21 pm Anyways this game is literally up to me to solve so like
Antagonizing me and refusing to cooperate isn't gonna help things
Literally just asking you to be a team player
Why are you so adamant about not cooperating and doing what you want, when you don't seem to understand the basics of the setup in the first place?Guillotine wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 10:32 pmDude, why is everything i say insulting to everyone here.This is getting tiring.
Im not opposed to plans, just take it from someone whom is great at turning plans made by town against them as a wolf, you gotta have a wild card, someone capable of doing an 180 on the wolves without risking a throw. The moment you commit to a plan in mafia, that is the moment you lose because scum can manipulate that.
Im not saying i dont want yo cooperate, i do, im saying… we dont want to lay it all out for scum.
Why Urist?
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Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 1]
Falcon told me last game he never lies about his role claims.
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Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 1]
I agree with a lot of this, but not at all on the last sentence. We should definitely open up for other saves than on Nanook.NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:45 pm Ok, so basic risk calculation indicates that if we all roll 3, and we only save on a 3 (1/3 of the time)... There's a 1.7% probability of mafia winning instantly with a shot on Nanook -> This isn't a viable shot for them.
If we maintain a ~1.5-2% chance each day (just need to calculate the numbers for each amount of pandas), every scenario, should be trivial...
That gives mafia about a 7% chance of winning in by day 4 (exclusive targeting Nanook), 13% chance with 8 days of targeting...
This is a very good number for town, and I think Nanook can kill mafia faster than this.. I have not calculated the probability of us running out of saves, but I would probably do that privately...
Nobody ever saves anyone but Nanook, and nobody ever claims saves.
We should make sure Nanook is either covered or reasonably covered.
It should be either:
1. Assigned and foolproof (So no "If our reads are good, we have enough protects", because this is where the trash can manipulate).
2. Dice roll as you suggest here, with a high probability of success.
I prefer option 2, the dice roll, because it ensures that mafia doesn't know who has used their protects or not.
But in addition to the dice roll, we should open up for protects on others (or self).
This is where the element of surprise comes in handy.
We should be conservative about it, for sure, but we shouldn't just dismiss doing it.
I mean, some people are probably going to go rogue to some degree anyway.
The problem with only protecting Nanook is obviously that mafia can kill anyone else, and then we lose protects really fast.
Doesn't matter that you save your protects if you just die anyway.
At the same time, you do have to be careful not to use too many protects too quickly.
So for example, if you roll 3 in a 1-3, you protect Nanook.
If you roll 1 or 2, you should probably save your protects, but if you feel like you could possibly successfully save someone because intuition or what not, then it's not a terrible idea to have that option. Saving someone who has an amount of protects left is pretty huge.
We have to reevaluate the strategy for the coming night based on who dies and what the numbers are in the game.
There will also be "oh shit we didn't think about this" moments later regarding mech, most likely.
For example, if we do manage to save someone else than Nanook, should we claim who we protected? It may confirm town. But it also gives mafia info. Etc.
But there's some bridges we cross when we get there.
First of all, let's make sure Nanook is covered within reason.
And then, we find mafia, so we don't have to think about this for too long.
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Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 1]
Falcon says he's town when he's mafia as well.Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 6:37 am Falcon told me last game he never lies about his role claims.
I don't know or care about the role claims.
I don't really think he's suspicious, but he doesn't have a "I'm town" truth tell.
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Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 1]
Right now I'd probably shoot one of DDL or Creature.
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Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 1]
This game has a limited post count.
Some people are burning their whole limit talking about mech and later on they will be able to use that as an excuse not to scumhunt.
I'd kill one of the people doing that. [VOTE: NAA] aubergine
As for the mech, here are my two cents.
Nanook needs to be protected 24/7. I think the safe number is 5 docs on odd days and 6 docs on even days. We can do a little less if we think the entire mafia won't get on the doctor block. Maybe 4 and 5. I'll volunteer for the doctor block today if nobody else will, but we should rotate.
Everyone else should protect conservatively, so we don't waste our protects early. Do not announce whether you are protecting or not, and who. Just do what you feel like and be cautious.
Some people are burning their whole limit talking about mech and later on they will be able to use that as an excuse not to scumhunt.
I'd kill one of the people doing that. [VOTE: NAA] aubergine
As for the mech, here are my two cents.
Nanook needs to be protected 24/7. I think the safe number is 5 docs on odd days and 6 docs on even days. We can do a little less if we think the entire mafia won't get on the doctor block. Maybe 4 and 5. I'll volunteer for the doctor block today if nobody else will, but we should rotate.
Everyone else should protect conservatively, so we don't waste our protects early. Do not announce whether you are protecting or not, and who. Just do what you feel like and be cautious.
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Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 1]
I strongly recommend you don't attempt to solve it by yourself and just follow whatever the majority is saying unless you have REALLY strong reasons not to.NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 10:21 pm Anyways this game is literally up to me to solve so like
Antagonizing me and refusing to cooperate isn't gonna help things
Literally just asking you to be a team player
Otherwise odds are you are joining nutella in the "traumatized by this setup" spec chat next time.
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Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 1]
I don't care if you don't care.Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 6:42 amFalcon says he's town when he's mafia as well.Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 6:37 am Falcon told me last game he never lies about his role claims.
I don't know or care about the role claims.
I don't really think he's suspicious, but he doesn't have a "I'm town" truth tell.
This game has no vanilla town roles. Falcon said he doesn't fake claim roles. He claimed a town role. So unless we believe his previous statement about having that meta was a lie, falcon should be treated as confirmed or nearly confirmed town.
I'm not saying falcon has a "no lie" meta. I'm saying he has a "no fake claim" meta. Those metas exist, I've met people with them in other sites before.
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Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 1]
I love Pandaman but he looks silly af in this pic, I think I'm swapping avys again.
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Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 1]
Sure.Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 6:58 amI don't care if you don't care.Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 6:42 amFalcon says he's town when he's mafia as well.Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 6:37 am Falcon told me last game he never lies about his role claims.
I don't know or care about the role claims.
I don't really think he's suspicious, but he doesn't have a "I'm town" truth tell.
This game has no vanilla town roles. Falcon said he doesn't fake claim roles. He claimed a town role. So unless we believe his previous statement about having that meta was a lie, falcon should be treated as confirmed or nearly confirmed town.
I'm not saying falcon has a "no lie" meta. I'm saying he has a "no fake claim" meta. Those metas exist, I've met people with them in other sites before.