Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]

[Dyslexicon]

Socially uncomfortable because I'm talking about poop?

[Dyslexicon]

brb pooping

Because of all the coffee, I presume?

[Dyslexicon]

Boq is mafia here btw.

I think it's time we address that.

[robyn]

Oh fuck, I did the poop tell. Lockscum. Well, GG, I was Illwei

@JaggedJimmyJay from what Ran told me scum makes it socially uncomfortable for me to vote them, doesn't this seem like an example to you?

Why do you think it's socially uncomfortable if you vote me?

I think it's probably not a great idea.

Why are you asking Jimmay, specifically?

Puzzling, you are.

I assumed the "poop tell" was original, because jimmy asked me earlier to take the advice that Ran gave me in champs spec chat

[Dyslexicon]

I still have my bets on Lucy being town. She just places herself awkwardly in the thread.

[Dyslexicon]

Now I'm doing that thing where I'm musing instead of reading. I'll take a break.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I assumed the "poop tell" was original, because jimmy asked me earlier to take the advice that Ran gave me in champs spec chat

I encourage you to take Ran's advice to heart, in this game if you're town and in general. Maybe after the game I can share the poop tell with you. It's one of my proudest moments.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Boq is mafia here btw.

I think it's time we address that.

Could you summarize the vibe

[NateTheLesser]

Putting this vote down for now:
[VOTE: Creature] aubergine

My top suspect is still Fingersplints for the same reasons as yesterday, with the additional point that Seanzie was pushing her for a time yesterday and is now dead. But I also want some more heat on Creature. I know a few people have voiced a townread, so I'm interested in hearing more about whether it's because he's playing to his town meta or something more than that.

Fair, but Sean did press a lot of people yesterday, including also myself, Jay, lucy, and probably others (Ender too maybe?)

He'd dropped the Lucy sus, but yeah he also pushed you/Jay/Ender. I'm not citing that bit as further reason to suspect Fingersplints on its own, just noting that the NKA does fit with w!Fingersplints.

[Marmot]

Spoiler: show

Actually, the median age world wide is below 32.

So Sean is, as I am, statistically older than most.

ruh-roh

welcome to this game @dyslexicon

To break down Mac's Day 1 reads:

Confident Town

Alison
Boquise
JaggedJimmyJay

Town

Creature
RondoDimBuckle
Seanzie

Null

Dyslexicon
EnderWiggin
fingersplints
NateTheLesser

Scum

DrWilgy
lucy
Marmot


There you go Jay, have fun.

where does he have dizzy in non town/null?

so Ender has read Wigly and Dizzy and hasn't said his reasoning for the reads yet

Ok, I've come to the point where I officially hate the game. Gl gl

so you won’t read up fully?

Ok, I've come to the point where I officially hate the game. Gl gl

so you won’t read up fully?

Yeah, but as I'm reading, I'm finding reasons to think a lot of people are town. This happens pretty much every game. It makes me helpless, indecisive and in a constant state of reevaluating, and I'm edging closer to that. But I'm trying to resist, cause I'm a strong and independent woman.

just search for mafia instead of townies, also what are your pronouns

dizzy just started playing, which could be contrived, so neutral lean

These are lucy's interactions/mentions of Dizzy in this game up until moments ago. A couple things stand out to me.

Most of this content is off-topic, not really game-relatetd.

There is a moment when lucy asked me why I listed Dizzy as a null read from Mac. Specifically she asked why I listed him as not-town/null. Word choice (and the use of the phrase not-town) is weird. And I think it's peculiar that she asked about him in particular.


On top of this, not many players seemed to bat an eye when Sean and I pressed lucy yesterday. Alison commented on it. Jay told us to go find her teammates first. While I didn't dislike her reactions in the moment that much, part of the reason I wanted to create pressure and put a wagon there is see how the thread responded to it. The response was fairly non-existent, which I find more rand wolf.


I also think that in a wolf!lucy world, Dizzy is a possible teammate.

[Dyslexicon]

Boq is mafia here btw.

I think it's time we address that.

Could you summarize the vibe

Yeah:

Spoiler: show

[Boquise]

Boq still hasn't talked to Marmot

What does this say to you about either or both of those players?

that they don't want to talk, which is strange

I did request an updated read from Boq of me yesterday, and I would like him to followup on that.

If I missed it Boq, please let me know.

yeah i did change my read yesterday but most of my reads are now yeeted into the sun tbh

[Boquise]

Boq is mafia here btw.

I think it's time we address that.

that would be boring too tbh

[NateTheLesser]

@NateTheLesser I still owe Creature a full reassessment, but my initial perception on Day 3 is that a Seanzie kill may point to a town Creature. Seanzie protected him pretty staunchly, while people like myself and a few others that have been anti-Creature much of the game are still here. I wonder if that represents an invitation for us to kill him without the same resistance.

I think it's more likely that the NK will aimed at direct threats, rather than removing protection for a mischop. Not that it couldn't serve both purposes.

[Marmot]

If Boq won't talk about me, I'll talk about myself.

[robyn]

Putting this vote down for now:
[VOTE: Creature] aubergine

My top suspect is still Fingersplints for the same reasons as yesterday, with the additional point that Seanzie was pushing her for a time yesterday and is now dead. But I also want some more heat on Creature. I know a few people have voiced a townread, so I'm interested in hearing more about whether it's because he's playing to his town meta or something more than that.

Fair, but Sean did press a lot of people yesterday, including also myself, Jay, lucy, and probably others (Ender too maybe?)

He'd dropped the Lucy sus, but yeah he also pushed you/Jay/Ender. I'm not citing that bit as further reason to suspect Fingersplints on its own, just noting that the NKA does fit with w!Fingersplints.

marmot picked up the lucy sus and dropped it already, same with Ender. but I'm gonna vote marmot seeing as how opportunistic he's playing, I don't think a townie plays how he does, but this is a gut read where I can't articulate much more to it

[Dyslexicon]

Boq is mafia here btw.

I think it's time we address that.

that would be boring too tbh

But you like being mafia.

[robyn]

[VOTE: Marmot] aubergine

[Dyslexicon]

This wagon formation always chops mafia btw

[Boquise]

Boq is mafia here btw.

I think it's time we address that.

that would be boring too tbh

But you like being mafia.

i do tbh
so this play would be boring

Why am I mafia?

[fingersplints]

I’m surprised to still be alive. Kinda checked out thinking it was over for me, so have catching up and what not to do. This break for the 4th might work out well for me to think

[Boquise]

If Boq won't talk about me, I'll talk about myself.

but I just replied to you and I did takes on you yesterday tbh

[Marmot]

Putting this vote down for now:
[VOTE: Creature] aubergine

My top suspect is still Fingersplints for the same reasons as yesterday, with the additional point that Seanzie was pushing her for a time yesterday and is now dead. But I also want some more heat on Creature. I know a few people have voiced a townread, so I'm interested in hearing more about whether it's because he's playing to his town meta or something more than that.

Fair, but Sean did press a lot of people yesterday, including also myself, Jay, lucy, and probably others (Ender too maybe?)

He'd dropped the Lucy sus, but yeah he also pushed you/Jay/Ender. I'm not citing that bit as further reason to suspect Fingersplints on its own, just noting that the NKA does fit with w!Fingersplints.

marmot picked up the lucy sus and dropped it already, same with Ender. but I'm gonna vote marmot seeing as how opportunistic he's playing, I don't think a townie plays how he does, but this is a gut read where I can't articulate much more to it

How is Marmot playing?

I think he's been a mild shitposter. He's been kinda treading water at times, like he doesn't know what he's doing, but in general, I find the cases he's making to be fairly decent, his though process is followable. And also he's cute af.

[Boquise]

I’m surprised to still be alive. Kinda checked out thinking it was over for me, so have catching up and what not to do. This break for the 4th might work out well for me to think

...did you think you'd get NK'd?

[Marmot]

If Boq won't talk about me, I'll talk about myself.

but I just replied to you and I did takes on you yesterday tbh

I hadn't seen it yet tbh

[fingersplints]

I’m surprised to still be alive. Kinda checked out thinking it was over for me, so have catching up and what not to do. This break for the 4th might work out well for me to think

...did you think you'd get NK'd?

No.

[Marmot]

I’m surprised to still be alive. Kinda checked out thinking it was over for me, so have catching up and what not to do. This break for the 4th might work out well for me to think

...did you think you'd get NK'd?

I assume she meant something else.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Let's ISO NateTheLesser

Spoiler: show

Spoiler: show

Hey Nate.

Can I get you to take a look at JJJ's three clears and gimme your opinion on them?

Sure. Is Seanzie the one you're balking at? Boq and Lucy I feel good about so far, Seanzie I don't have a lean on either way. So if you and JJJ are reading him differently that'll be interesting. (And if I'm wrong and it's not Seanzie you're thinking of, then we probably disagree on Boq or Lucy, which is interesting in a different way).

What do you like about Boq or Lucy specifically? Is Seanzie slipping your radar or you just don't think his posts are AI?

Boq - I liked that he was reading the thread and replying to things before he made his introduction post. Didn't seem concerned with Making An Entrance.

Lucy - Seems a little less.. intense(?) than her qualifier, a little more comfortable. Trying to get a sense of the player list in an inquisitive way.

Seanzie the most notable thing for me so far was being included in JJJ's list. I'm not saying I disagree with him being in there, just that nothing stood out to me in particular.

Nate had a quiet Day 0, and this was his first truly relevant stuf just before the start of Day 1. It's a small point for a small post, but I like that Nate was content to take stances on two people (Boquise and lucy) to whom he was new at this early stage of play. Ender provided a prompt, and Nate answered the call without a sense of trepidation or hedge.

Spoiler: show

@NateTheLesser any initial impressions

Feel good about: you, Boq, Lucy
Feel mostly good about: Alison, Seanzie, Ender
Confused neutral: Wilgy, Rondo
Confused negative: Falcon

Everyone else is straight null as of page 12, I'll see if anything shifts around as I catch up.

The man cannot be accused of lacking in stances. The veracity and sincerity of these reads will have to be assessed moving forward, apart from those already discussed.

Spoiler: show

Doing this for now
[VOTE: falcon] aubergine

Maybe a weird read. But the one game I have with him he was more pure shitpost-y and difficult for me to get a read either way on. Here it's "shitpost-y" interspersed with like actual reads, which is throwing me off.

Doing this for now
[VOTE: falcon] aubergine

Maybe a weird read. But the one game I have with him he was more pure shitpost-y and difficult for me to get a read either way on. Here it's "shitpost-y" interspersed with like actual reads, which is throwing me off.

For someone who is new to Falcon I'd call this an obscenely insightful read and a perfect description of mafia Falcon.

Town Falcon and scum Falcon both shit post, but scum Falcon makes more of an effort to find optimal paths for himself whereas town Falcon is much more content just wandering the wilderness and landing his vote wherever it may.

"Oh good, I can just shitpost" vs "Oh no, I should shitpost"

To provide context for the unaware, both Nate and falcon played in this season's Game 1 of champs. A shitpost-based meta read and vote is kind of uninspired.

Spoiler: show

I will grant that lucy could stand to take more stances on alignment

in the champs game I felt super uncomfortable giving 4 very forced reads d1, and my top townread there was mafia. not too interested in giving reads that i legitimately don't have

Being correct is only one part of it (though of course it's nice if your gut reads end up being correct). You can see how the people you name react to being town/wolf read. You can see how other people react to your reads. And it also helps the rest of us get a sense of where your head is at, which is important for deciding whether to trust you or not.

I vibe with the discomfort, though. It seems pretty common on MU to offer early reads on the whole player list, which is foreign to me.

I vibe with the discomfort, though. It seems pretty common on MU to offer early reads on the whole player list, which is foreign to me.

Speaking for myself, I like making day 1 reads because:

1. It causes people to do shit
2. My ability to make reads doesn't require heaps of content and tbh sometimes it's hindered by it... I would say in the main my reads have an arc curve in terms of accuracy. They start off good, get worse during mid game, and then get good at endgame lol.

Yeah. I guess I'm pro-"day 1 reads", anti-"day 1 reads for the sake of having a read". It can be difficult to tell the difference between a read that feels fake because a wolf is trying to appear uninformed, and a read that feels fake because a townie felt like they should have an opinion and came up with something.

Just marking this as some indicator of a Nate process. The foreign nature of large reads lists hasn't stopped him in this game to this point from offering that. I'm not sure if this means anything to me; Syndicate culture of play has a lot in common with MU culture of play.

Spoiler: show

I'm around and catching up, I see some pings so I'll start there.

A few miscellaneous marbles that have been rolling around in my head in the meantime (these are just from memory, I can go back and find actual postnums if needed):

@JaggedJimmyJay - In your early post about things we should keep in mind for town success, was that just drawn from spectating this season or have you also played mountainous setups before?
Also I noticed that your "town leader" thread presence seemed to dip after Mac showed up (in my perception, anyway). Was that intentional, or am I just reading something into the vagaries of like, when people can be active in thread?

If Lucy's a wolf, I think she could be with Mac (but I don't think Lucy's a wolf). If Lucy's not a wolf, it's interesting to me that Seanzie picked her to focus on in Mac's list of town leans. @Seanzie - what was your thought process behind making sure Mac knew that Lucy had extensive discord mafia experience? (I also think it's interesting that Rondo +1'd Seanzie's fear that Lucy was being cleared too easily).

@lucy - Pretty early in Mac's thread entry, he said something in reply to you about your wolf partners, implying that you're a wolf. It seemed possibly like a reaction test to me, but there was no reaction. Did you see it at the time? He went on to townread you pretty soon after that so maybe it wasn't relevant anymore.

@MacDougall - How much have you played with Falcon? You seemed to vibe with my unease there, just wondering how much that's based on.

I think it has become apparent in this game that, for Nate, my reputation precedes me, or at least that he has some preconceptions about what I do as a player. So the orange thing is a pretty specific observation that, whether one agrees with the assertion or not, doesn't strike me as the kind of thing that mafia typically fake. He's paying attention not only to my leaderly presence, but also to how that presence warps the game thread and changes along with the impacts made by others (in this case, MacDougall). I don't think this was the only time he has spoken of me in this kind of light.

The rest of this post is fine. I have no other comments of note.

Spoiler: show

I did not, no. There are still a few pages from yesterday during the (US) day that I haven't read, but I have more time today to catch up the rest of the way and stay current. I'll give you some thoughts, though, starting off with @JaggedJimmyJay's request for 4 town names. My top town would be JJJ, Mac, Boq, and Lucy. I know that has significant overlap with "most active". But JJJ and Boq both seem to be doing their own thing and solving independently while also making sure the overall thread state is moving in a positive direction. None of JJJ/Mac/Boq seem all that concerned with triangulating their reads so they match up (as one example, Boq's early town leans had overlap with Mac's early scum leans). Lucy I still just think is town from overall comfort level and tone. I think she'd be more self-conscious about not having reads as a wolf, especially when Mac was prodding her about it.

The tier below that (call it town leans) I'd put you (Sean) and Alison. You've trended up for me. I kind of vibed with Falcon's early read of you being "stiff", but that was mostly Day 0. I think Day 1 your pushes have made sense to me and you're poking at things in a solvey way. I had some initial concern that you were trying to keep Lucy in the POE, but you explained why Mac townleaning her stood out to you, so fine. Alison I'm townleaning at this point mostly from overlap between our town and scum piles, and she's been broadly engaging with players in the game rather than keeping a narrow focus. Do you still feel like her push on Rondo was just to cause disruption? It hasn't seemed to play out that way.

Some flavor of null on Creature/Dizzy/Ender/Fingersplints/Marmot. Of those it bothers me the most that I don't have a read on Ender. In our qualifier he projected a lot of solving towniness that I don't see here, but he was also a wolf in that game, so I'm not sure how to apply that meta. Creature I haven't gotten any specific pings from; seems like there's concern that their lack of activity is telling, but I have no meta there. So I think those are my two nulls that I want to sort in some fashion.

That leaves Falcon/Rondo/Wilgy as POE, which I really don't think is the exact team because that would be wild. I'm still fine with my Falcon vote, the only thing that makes me paranoid is how many people seem to agree with me. With both Falcon and Rondo they're in my POE because I get hints of agenda poking through the fluff. Wilgy's mostly here from, well, process of elimination, but I also didn't like his reaction to a towncore forming and asked him for more thoughts on that.

This post has a lot going on, so bear with the color coding. The colors are meaningless and only meant for reference.

Orange: This reflects four early town reads. These were pretty consensus at the time Nate gave them. I think it's nice that Nate is trying to collaborate in the broader town solving effort by answering this prompt for town reads, and building from that. I'll temper that credit given the fact that these reads were uncontroversial.

Green: Perhaps the waffling here is a little much, particularly with Seanzie. They're still stances.

Red: This POE is now 0 for 2. Not the end of the world, but it must be noted.

Spoiler: show

I still don't get the Nate townreads. From which weirdverse did they come from?

I kind of agree with this. I have found Nate extremely null and don't get why so many are putting them north-of-null. They are present, and don't feel uncomfortable, but they also aren't really doing anything townie. Asking a lot of questions, but I don't know what they're doing with the answers.

I've been mostly poking at others' Falcon reads because I get nervous when a wagon forms behind me. But it seems to be a scumread that's shared by more than 3 other people, which at least means there are other townies with that opinion and it's not just wolves patting me on the head so I'll continue pushing a misyeet.

I asked you a question in my larger post, it might have gotten buried:

Do you still feel like her push on Rondo was just to cause disruption? It hasn't seemed to play out that way.

("her" being Alison)

It's true that Nate has been inquisitive to this point with other players about falcon, who still has his vote. Example 1; Example 2, or afterword Example 3. I'm not sure I care about this, but it's logged for progression.

Spoiler: show

What's the melting point of guacamole?

Inquiring minds would like to know...

it's already liquid bruh

I.... don't like the sound of this guacamole.

Condiments are nasty.

This is mostly it for Day 1. To this point I think he looks alright, but there's room for him to be cozying up to the game in a malevolent sense.

Spoiler: show

Vote Spreadsheet

This is something I do on my homesite because we don't have any sort of vote automation (and Ender will recognize it because I brought screenshots of it to our champs qualifier). If you want to see what the vote count was at any given point in time, this will help.

- There's a tab for each Day at the bottom. All votes from the thread are listed in chronological order, and on the right side is a running vote count that shows what the vote count was after each vote.
- Due to the vagaries of The Poll being separate from the thread, I'm using the timestamp from the vote post if I could find one. I also took poll screenshots occasionally and reconciled the vote counts (there are notes on the timestamps of when this was done), so at those points the count is definitely accurate. There were at least a few votes that I could tell happened from the screenshots but didn't see a vote post for, so that's what the "??:??" votes are.
- Waterfall: This tab shows, for each player, everyone that they voted for each day. Player alignments are colored in after they die.
- Wagons: Shows the final vote count from each day’s vote, with player alignments colored in as the game goes on.
- If you open the document you'll be anonymous to anyone else in there, so don't worry about doxxing yourself.
- I obviously won't be updating this anymore after I die.

Link removed in edit by mod

(I think that'll actually embed here..? Unless the preview is lying to me. It seems like it loses some of the formatting and doesn't show notes, so this is the actual link if you want to open the document:
Link removed in edit by mod

One item of note to start with regarding JJJ's idea to look at the Falcon votes: everyone except Boq/Rondo/Wilgy voted for Falcon at some point. So unless that's exactly the team, there are wolf fingerprints on the Falcon push.

Nate will be allowed to share this document by screenshot, but we can't utilize a shared, editable document outside the thread. Apologies for having to edit this post, but I couldn't see a good way around that.

I'll just use this initial post as a grab-all reference to the concept of Nate Vote Spreadsheets. While I think these sheets can be a wonderful resource, and I greatly appreciate Nate's efforts to provide them -- they have next to zero impact on my read. I would imagine these exist regardless of Nate's alignment.

Spoiler: show

In terms of suspicion around and votes for Falcon, this is a vote I'm interested in hearing more about. Offers a town perspective on Falcon early (not really a read, more "I would expect this from him as town"), and then later on has him as a scumlean but with an out of saying they always think he's scum and have been wrong before.

[numerous fingersplints posts snipped by JJJ]

I'm good with a vote here for now.
[VOTE: fingersplints] aubergine

Snipped for length.

This can be called an actual case by Nate against fingersplints, and I think the rationale is reasonable. fingersplints' handling of falcon is something I'd call iffy too.

Spoiler: show

Boq and Rondo actually can be cleared in a Marmot!Wolf world, as can Creature probably.

Mildly trusting Seanzie on the unpairing for Creature/Marmot tbh.

Walk me through this? How does Marmot Wolf clear me?

Magic.

But seriously your vote twice put Marmot from "One vote" to "Actual wagon territory" on D1. And chaos muppet that you are, I don't think that's w/w

Meh, the votes weren't that dangerous IMO. Twice he was the lone vote on Marmot for a while, and then the last one he was a second vote (when Falcon had 4 votes). I think I agree with your overall point though, since I don't think he'd vote for Marmot 3 times on day one if they were partners.

I appreciate Nate's attention to detail with the voting patterns. It's a decent indicator that hasn't merely posted his vote records for show and that they are something that he is wielding and thinking about in his process. That's especially true here given that he seems to agree with Ender's conclusion about Rondo but still wants to discuss the process leading to it.

Spoiler: show

@Seanzie what do you think prohibits the existence of opportunism in the early stages of a Day 1 preceded by 24 hours of Day 0 discourse?

A vote with 47 hours left in the day does not really put that person in danger, except in the most extreme of circumstances. The worst it might do is bring slightly more attention to that person, but I'd barely call that "opportunistic". More likely, making an early wagon even bigger is probably more likely to protect that person than anything else - picking up suspicion early on allows for a lot of time for feelings to soften and doubt to sink in, plus if a wagon gets too big early on, people will assume foul play and likely back off.

In the wolf!Ender hypothetical, did you feel their vote was set there? Did you feel that vote put Wilgy in significant danger? What benefit did wolf!Ender really hope to gain from their "opportunistic" vote? Why was it opportunistic rather than distancing, or just a thing to make Ender look like he was doing something/having thoughts?

I'll give a perspective on this because I agree that an early vote can still be opportunistic, in a couple ways. Just thinking in a w!Ender t!Wilgy world for a second here. One way is that he was following your vote, so it can be an easy way to nudge a wagon into forming on someone who's town, while also hopefully making you feel good about Ender because he's agreeing with you (I see it a lot that wolves will sheep reads or sheep votes early on). A second way it can be opportunistic is gamestate; Ender had a vote at that point, so it had the effect of putting another wagon ahead of his without drawing attention to it being self-pres.

Now, that said I don't really see it as unpairing given how early it is, so I wouldn't give it much weight for JJJ's purposes.

This is another example of a similar process to my previous observation. Here, Nate provides a perspective to Seanzie about me and my rationale that can lend some clarity to the ongoing conversation or improve its depth despite having a conclusion that isn't really different from Seanzie's (that Ender and Wilgy weren't dissociated).

Spoiler: show

How would you rank finger/creature/dizzy/ender in order of suspicion right now, with brief reasons if possible?

They're in about that order, from most suspicion to least. What I'm looking for in the Falcon votes is people who helped it along but in such a way that they wouldn't look responsible, and both Finger and Creature fit that. Finger was using Mac's god read as cover but also said she had (unspecified) concerns of her own there. And I think the "but I've been wrong about him before" framing gives her a way to backtrack if things go a different direction. I need to look back at Creature's actual reasoning, but their vote(s) were also in the context of being self pres, so the purpose wasn't only to push Falcon. Dizzy I'm null on, I hope they have more time as the game goes on. They're disconnected but their votes haven't just been vanity wagons. Ender I would have put as more sus than Dizzy until this:

What is your goal in this game Ender?

What is your point in asking this quesiton, Marmot?

I'm trying to sort out your motives because I don't understand them, and I hope that it'll help me read you better.

I want to win, like anyone else.

I felt D1 was weird in a wolfy way and I'm trying to work out why.

I expressed that on D1 and everyone laughed.

I still felt that on N1.

Went into D2 asking why I felt that, Alison/Lucy/Jay probably has 1 wolf, probably not more but I think one.

Building my little group of townies and trying to sort wolf motivations.

I think the meme mask slipped a bit and it was actually a real post.

I think what I like about Nate in this game is that I understand his process clearly and feel like I can see the gears churning toward the conclusions that he draws. The work he does, and the reads he makes, strikes me as authentic. This is an example. It's a really nice blend of his own vote-driven hunt with my own Day 2 call for the Day 1 falcon votes to be scrutinized for their motivations.

Spoiler: show

I think one thing that bothers me about Nate is that it doesn't feel like he has any reads he's passionate about. I don't know if this is just a playstyle thing but it's what drove me to quiz him about his reads in more detail. I'm uncomfortable by the fact that his stance seems to be repeating the most uncontroversial/popular reads and then chilling and not making a massive effort to push them. I could see this coming from a townie who feels we've got the game in the bag, and I've been in that position a couple of times myself, but those were when I had big confidence in my reads and the wolves were getting crushed. This gamestate started off with a misexe and then some pretty tense/controversial interactions between players, so it doesn't feel wholly appropriate for Nate to just be sitting back and going "yep, I guess we'll just auto the guys in the middle of falcon's wagon".

Honestly I've been in an unusual position (for me) both days where I've started a wagon and had it turn into something without really having to push for it. If I feel strongly about something in the early game I'm usually off on my own and have to convince people to join, and I get a lot out of the debate involved in that and having people question my read if they disagree. Yesterday I think Mac giving his full throated blessing to the Falcon wagon was why it turned into a consensus chop. As for today, I do think FIngersplints could be a hit, but it's become a wagon again without much resistance (and not a whole lot of reasoning from Rondo or Dizzy when they joined). So I'm very interested in your take on Fingersplints, especially since we seem to disagree.

Perhaps the cold feet can be called a problem. It doesn't feel that way, but I acknowledge the case exists.

Spoiler: show

[VOTE: NateTheLesser] aubergine

Honestly don't feel like you care about the current gamestate, why's that?

I said this in more words in response to Alison, but people keep agreeing with my pushes, and it leaves me oddly directionless.

You're disquieted because you think there's a wolf in Alison/Lucy/Jay? Why those 3?

It's a somewhat flat response to a vote. Nate seems like a flat dude.

Spoiler: show

Let's have an exercise
If you had an alignment check, who would be your first pick to check and why?

Probably Seanzie? A lot of his pushes have been on people I town read, so I think that would tell me a lot about whether my worldview is largely correct or whether I need to do more reevaluating.

Aside from Jay, who I think most people have a contrary opinion to me, who are the people I'm pushing that you're townreading?

Marmot and Lucy. Marmot especially is someone that I was feeling pretty good about since they got more engaged late D1, but you and Boq have been suspicious of them so it makes me wonder if I'm missing something.

If there's something lacking in Nate's process, perhaps it's reassessment. I'm not sure to what extent his reads have moved since the early stage of the game.

Spoiler: show

Seanzie gave me some perspective on Creature. I'd appreciate the same from others. What's Creature about, folks?

I also want to hear this, since that's another point where I think Seanzie and I differ. Creature hasn't really done much that makes me think they're town, so for me they're null at best. I find things like this really scummy:

Also yeah falcon will probably have to be sorted at some point anyway.

Though town also does get into that mindset (not usually the first day).

Minor town point for switching off Falcon midday yesterday when Falcon was at 4 votes to Creature's 3, I'd generally expect a wolf to stay on Falcon for self pres there.

I think there's potential equity between Fingersplints/Creature, but I'm wary of preflipping.

I could do WIlgy too. I don't have strong feelings about Fingers one way or the other, so maybe I should read her ISO.

Did you ever answer Jay about your thoughts on Creature?

Nice little moment of persistence. Small point.

Spoiler: show

Best argument for Ender being town, go

He seems very different from our qualifier, where he was a wolf. By different I mean he seemed perfectly able to project towniness and do towny solving, and he's doing neither of those things here, which is a quandary because it's both "less towny" and "less like the wolf meta I'm familiar with" which are at odds.

VCA wise he rejoined the Falcon wagon as the 7th vote an hour or so before EOD, which I'm not sure why he'd do if he knew it was going to be a town flip.

Nate has been pro-me much of the game, so I appreciate that he is still providing challenges like this to my reads instead of just nodding affirmations to everything I say.

Spoiler: show

I like these wagons much better (minus the tie, but we've got an hour to figure that out).

I believe the wagons in this moment were Ender, Wilgy, and fingersplints. That's a close reflection of where Nate has stood. I think he made decent motions to be a part of producing that state of affairs, albeit not loudly.

Conclusion

Nate has an understated style and language. In that way, I don't look at these posts and easily derive strong, confident perspectives. But I still get impressions, and they are more often positive than not. I believe that I can follow the thread of Nate's process in this game, and that it looks honest and insightful. Nate's a slot that I think is viewed less "brightly" by most other players, so I hope folks who don't have the same impression can engage with this in some capacity. Nate's a player that seems to get discussed in ancillary or tangential ways. Let's be more concrete.

[Dyslexicon]

I’m surprised to still be alive. Kinda checked out thinking it was over for me, so have catching up and what not to do. This break for the 4th might work out well for me to think

...did you think you'd get NK'd?

No, silly. She thought she'd get chopped.

I already know you two are teammates, but I'm pretending that I don't know that yet, so that the day continues without you two knowing that I know.

[Marmot]

@JaggedJimmyJay what do you think about lucy/Dizzy?

[Dyslexicon]

Now that I've said that, I think the interaction that stands out the most to me is Fingers/boq. They have weird interactions.

[Boquise]

ftr i think both finger and marmot are town

I agree, and I'm sad that the thread thinks that these are the two best options atm.

If you're going to kill me today thread, do not kill fingersplints tomorrow.

Does marmots have bad memories?

[Dyslexicon]

@JaggedJimmyJay what do you think about lucy/Dizzy?

Marmot, you make me sad. Why can't you just town read me.

Can't believe I have to fight crime with Ender, the Aussie instead. He's not even here when I am a lot of the time.

[Boquise]

I’m surprised to still be alive. Kinda checked out thinking it was over for me, so have catching up and what not to do. This break for the 4th might work out well for me to think

...did you think you'd get NK'd?

No.

so you peaced out before the day had ended and didnt check back on the thread until just now?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

@JaggedJimmyJay what do you think about lucy/Dizzy?

Off-hand I wouldn't discount that association. Perhaps the whole poop incident is an argument to the contrary, but it's hard to take confidence in that. I will look over what you had to say about it.

[Marmot]

ftr i think both finger and marmot are town

I agree, and I'm sad that the thread thinks that these are the two best options atm.

If you're going to kill me today thread, do not kill fingersplints tomorrow.

Does marmots have bad memories?

I was looking for something with more nuance, which is probably why I forgot. I was expecting that, because your original scumread on me did have a couple explanations attached to it.

[robyn]

Putting this vote down for now:
[VOTE: Creature] aubergine

My top suspect is still Fingersplints for the same reasons as yesterday, with the additional point that Seanzie was pushing her for a time yesterday and is now dead. But I also want some more heat on Creature. I know a few people have voiced a townread, so I'm interested in hearing more about whether it's because he's playing to his town meta or something more than that.

Fair, but Sean did press a lot of people yesterday, including also myself, Jay, lucy, and probably others (Ender too maybe?)

He'd dropped the Lucy sus, but yeah he also pushed you/Jay/Ender. I'm not citing that bit as further reason to suspect Fingersplints on its own, just noting that the NKA does fit with w!Fingersplints.

marmot picked up the lucy sus and dropped it already, same with Ender. but I'm gonna vote marmot seeing as how opportunistic he's playing, I don't think a townie plays how he does, but this is a gut read where I can't articulate much more to it

How is Marmot playing?

I think he's been a mild shitposter. He's been kinda treading water at times, like he doesn't know what he's doing, but in general, I find the cases he's making to be fairly decent, his though process is followable. And also he's cute af.

you jumped on me to see how I'd react, fanned the flames for Sean to push me, he stopped so you stopped and you gave the same reasoning he did. now you are giving the reasoning where no response to 3 votes on me is wolf indicative, and earlier I believe Mac gave reasoning that resistance to a Lynch was wolf indicative, so with more dead has it changed, or what's your logic?

[Boquise]

I’m surprised to still be alive. Kinda checked out thinking it was over for me, so have catching up and what not to do. This break for the 4th might work out well for me to think

...did you think you'd get NK'd?

No, silly. She thought she'd get chopped.

I already know you two are teammates, but I'm pretending that I don't know that yet, so that the day continues without you two knowing that I know.

Is this the reason why you killed Seanzie?

Sean is lacktown, so that's nice

Why?

Because your posts are townie and I love you.

I love you too, but it'd help to see some detailed, nuanced thoughts.

At the point where I wrote lacktown, I had just read your questioning of Ender and how you didn't believe the "game state is creepy and I'm tugging my clothes" from the beginning of your questioning. It just reads like real thoughts to me. "I didn't believe it from the beginning of, that's why I'm questioning you, you goose."

I think I read you quite well. When I do, you say "Why?" and demand reasons.

You read me fairly well too, I believe. So I'd prefer it if you town read me and we can be friends and fight crime together.

This is super conceited, but I've had this tinfoil about you most of the game that you've been acting the way you have because you know I can read your usual meta pretty well and so you didn't want to play that way because you're woofin' and I'd catch you.

[Dyslexicon]

I’m surprised to still be alive. Kinda checked out thinking it was over for me, so have catching up and what not to do. This break for the 4th might work out well for me to think

...did you think you'd get NK'd?

No.

so you peaced out before the day had ended and didnt check back on the thread until just now?

Her post didn't imply that.

But nice distancing anyway.

[NateTheLesser]

I'm not sure I agree as much as the rest of you that NKA points so strongly to a wolf in Jay/Boq/Alison, YET. I think that would be true if the thread consensus yesterday had been that there must be a wolf in those three, but that wasn't the thread consensus IMO. (Not that it couldn't be true, I just don't think the Sean kill should make us tinfoil that trio without other reasons to tinfoil).

I'm not sure that I follow. Is there a way that you could re-word or re-state the orange portion?

Sure. Not to make everything about champs, but, I think the pattern that Boq is applying is that there were some games where it became notable that a certain group of "known to be good at the game" players weren't being NK'd (the game with Nanook/Jack/Dobby is one), and the thread consensus became that the group can't be all pure, and because there was a wolf in that group they continued to kill elsewhere so as not to narrow that "POE". And I'm saying I don't think we match that pattern at this point, because "there must be a wolf in Jay/Boq/Alison" was not a consensus yesterday.

lets just depart to standard game stuff tbh
If 1 wolf gets put in the strong town group of a game, there will later be issues for said wolf. "Why are you still alive?"
Wolf can choose between two things: a) play delibaretely worse than the other strong town. b) kill outside of the group, but not inside the poe. When the "Why are you still alive" question occurs, there will be other players that question can be applied to as well.

Though I will won't discuss that much more since it is game theory tbh

Sure. My point was the "why are you 3 still alive" question was not in the forefront yesterday so I don't think it would have driven last night's kill. But it's certainly a pattern to keep in mind.

[Dyslexicon]

I’m surprised to still be alive. Kinda checked out thinking it was over for me, so have catching up and what not to do. This break for the 4th might work out well for me to think

...did you think you'd get NK'd?

No, silly. She thought she'd get chopped.

I already know you two are teammates, but I'm pretending that I don't know that yet, so that the day continues without you two knowing that I know.

Is this the reason why you killed Seanzie?

Sean is lacktown, so that's nice

Why?

Because your posts are townie and I love you.

I love you too, but it'd help to see some detailed, nuanced thoughts.

At the point where I wrote lacktown, I had just read your questioning of Ender and how you didn't believe the "game state is creepy and I'm tugging my clothes" from the beginning of your questioning. It just reads like real thoughts to me. "I didn't believe it from the beginning of, that's why I'm questioning you, you goose."

I think I read you quite well. When I do, you say "Why?" and demand reasons.

You read me fairly well too, I believe. So I'd prefer it if you town read me and we can be friends and fight crime together.

This is super conceited, but I've had this tinfoil about you most of the game that you've been acting the way you have because you know I can read your usual meta pretty well and so you didn't want to play that way because you're woofin' and I'd catch you.

Lol.

I didn't kill Sean, because I can't kill.
He can read me ok though. That conspiracy theory from him is very lol though. But he didn't scum read me afaik.
I miss him though. It was the worst NK for me tbh, no shade to anyone else

[fingersplints]

I’m surprised to still be alive. Kinda checked out thinking it was over for me, so have catching up and what not to do. This break for the 4th might work out well for me to think

...did you think you'd get NK'd?

No.

so you peaced out before the day had ended and didnt check back on the thread until just now?

If by “peaced out before the day had ended” you mean “go to bed at a reasonable time for a mother of 2 in the UK” then yes, that is what I did.

[Boquise]

I’m surprised to still be alive. Kinda checked out thinking it was over for me, so have catching up and what not to do. This break for the 4th might work out well for me to think

...did you think you'd get NK'd?

No.

so you peaced out before the day had ended and didnt check back on the thread until just now?

Her post didn't imply that.

But nice distancing anyway.

it does tho tbh
"I'm surprised to still be alive." - surprised of being not chop
"Kinda checked out thinking it was over for me" - implies leaving the thread
"so have catching up and what not to do" - This plus the previous phrase implies not checking the thread until now tbh

[Boquise]

I’m surprised to still be alive. Kinda checked out thinking it was over for me, so have catching up and what not to do. This break for the 4th might work out well for me to think

...did you think you'd get NK'd?

No.

so you peaced out before the day had ended and didnt check back on the thread until just now?

If by “peaced out before the day had ended” you mean “go to bed at a reasonable time for a mother of 2 in the UK” then yes, that is what I did.

The night phase is 24 hours tbh

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I also think that in a wolf!lucy world, Dizzy is a possible teammate.

I think your viewpoint is technically valid. Those posts are compatible enough. The only one that stands out to me is her response to you about Mac's reads (that's an awkwardly specific moment to bring up Dizzy). How do you feel about PoopGate?

[Boquise]

I’m surprised to still be alive. Kinda checked out thinking it was over for me, so have catching up and what not to do. This break for the 4th might work out well for me to think

...did you think you'd get NK'd?

No, silly. She thought she'd get chopped.

I already know you two are teammates, but I'm pretending that I don't know that yet, so that the day continues without you two knowing that I know.

Is this the reason why you killed Seanzie?

Why?

Because your posts are townie and I love you.

I love you too, but it'd help to see some detailed, nuanced thoughts.

At the point where I wrote lacktown, I had just read your questioning of Ender and how you didn't believe the "game state is creepy and I'm tugging my clothes" from the beginning of your questioning. It just reads like real thoughts to me. "I didn't believe it from the beginning of, that's why I'm questioning you, you goose."

I think I read you quite well. When I do, you say "Why?" and demand reasons.

You read me fairly well too, I believe. So I'd prefer it if you town read me and we can be friends and fight crime together.

This is super conceited, but I've had this tinfoil about you most of the game that you've been acting the way you have because you know I can read your usual meta pretty well and so you didn't want to play that way because you're woofin' and I'd catch you.

Lol.

I didn't kill Sean, because I can't kill.
He can read me ok though. That conspiracy theory from him is very lol though. But he didn't scum read me afaik.
I miss him though. It was the worst NK for me tbh, no shade to anyone else

2 min writing that and lots of thoughs I see tbh

No shade at all? Despite being the first player to seriously question JJJ?

[fingersplints]

I’m surprised to still be alive. Kinda checked out thinking it was over for me, so have catching up and what not to do. This break for the 4th might work out well for me to think

...did you think you'd get NK'd?

No.

so you peaced out before the day had ended and didnt check back on the thread until just now?

If by “peaced out before the day had ended” you mean “go to bed at a reasonable time for a mother of 2 in the UK” then yes, that is what I did.

The night phase is 24 hours tbh

Yup. It is.

I honestly wish I was mafia and had teammates. Interactions like this would be more amusing to deal with if I wasn’t all on my own.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Can I get some GTH reads on Nate?

[Boquise]

I’m surprised to still be alive. Kinda checked out thinking it was over for me, so have catching up and what not to do. This break for the 4th might work out well for me to think

...did you think you'd get NK'd?

No.

so you peaced out before the day had ended and didnt check back on the thread until just now?

If by “peaced out before the day had ended” you mean “go to bed at a reasonable time for a mother of 2 in the UK” then yes, that is what I did.

The night phase is 24 hours tbh

Yup. It is.

I honestly wish I was mafia and had teammates. Interactions like this would be more amusing to deal with if I wasn’t all on my own.

So we return to my question: that entrance was your first time checking the thread? Not even a peek?
Second sentence is strange. It sounds like you are irritated, but I am not really pushing you in an annoying manner.

[Boquise]

Can I get some GTH reads on Nate?

town