Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]

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Who put Boquise on ice?

Poll ended at Sun Jul 17, 2022 9:00 pm

Creature
0
No votes
fingersplints
2
15%
RondoDimBuckle
1
8%
Final 3 (dead, host, mod, non-player option)
10
77%
 
Total votes: 13
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JaggedJimmyJay
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Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 3]

#3601

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

Keep in mind as I post these that quotes are restricted by locked thread limitations, so you don't have direct click access within them. It's basically just read-only.
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Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 3]

#3602

Post by NateTheLesser »

lucy wrote: Mon Jul 04, 2022 9:16 pm [VOTE: Sleep] aubergine

I have iso'd marmot, I think he's probably town tbh. I was mad that he was pushing and made a mistake concerning me
Did you mostly focus on Marmot, or did you have time to look elsewhere too?
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Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 3]

#3603

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

Let's ISO Marmot

Spoiler: show
Spoiler: show
Marmot wrote:I'm going to slank until at least Day 1 starts

Ture

Spoiler: show
Marmot wrote: JJJ is town because he isn't stilted off the face of the earth.

After the events of Philo Mafia 2 and Highway Heist, I may have turbo'd Marmot if he didn't make this read.

Spoiler: show
Marmot wrote:
MacDougall wrote: I'd probs bet actual money Rondo is town here.

I do like to gamble though. But I'm pretty confident lol.

I find Mac mildly townie, but he's got a tone this game that I'm not used to that I want to keep an eye on. There are posts like this where he uses "lol" in his statements, something that lightens the conviction he had in them (which I get is an odd observation here given that it's added to a statement where he's talking about confidence), but additionally he's using other sentence add-ons like "though" and "but" back-to-back. I'm used to Mac speaking in facts, not considerations.

Anyway, just a note. I did go back through Ducktales Mafia to compare his posting there (a recent town game), Mac did use "lol" several times so maybe this observation isn't concerning. Also Mac caught falcon as scum Day 1 in that game, so his assertion here has some credibility.

To give the simplest summary of my view of Marmot's meta: when he's town, he makes nuanced reads based upon little details often otherwise overlooked. When he's mafia, his posts are farts. So while this read on Mac could be called a hedge, I like that Marmot is paying attention to little things like "lol" placement.

Spoiler: show
Marmot wrote: I glanced at DrWilgy's ISO and have a firm townread there.

I glanced at falcon's too and don't have a firm townread, but I'm not ready to call him scum yet. I'll probably defer to Mac's read since he's so consistent at reading him.
Marmot wrote: I also don't think a team of DrWilgy and falcon would both attempt to simultaneously scumread a town!Mac (in this gamestate).
Marmot wrote:
DrWilgy wrote: Marmot, why am I town?
Because your reads aren't weak (if I may make such a critical statement about your scum game), nor are you making solely peepee poopoo posts.
Marmot wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: I haven’t played much lately but my conception of the Wilgy Experience is that as mafia he’s less peepeepoopoo
I hosted a game with him as mafia semi-recently (Coffia), his Day 1 start included lots of peepee poopoo, but he transitioned to attempting to defend himself when he was put under pressure. He was eventually yeeted Day 1.

In Team Fortress, he quite literally posted nothing but mphhhmpm pmmphmh mphmhp for most of the game as mafia.

In Philo 2 Mafia, Wilgy did have some peepee poopoo, but on Day 2, he made an incredibly astute post summarizing the game state and what we should do, which was enough to (correctly) remove him from the POE, and direct us in the right direction.


This game, I would lean more towards Philo 2 than the others on meta.

Marmot wasted no time in giving the town sticker to DrWilgy, and he presented it with assertiveness. Marmot is probably the player on the roster I would most expect to both give Wilgy special attention and also have good insights about Wilgy's enigmatic ways. So this represents a nice start. It must be stated that in the end Marmot voted Wilgy out on Day 2 -- I'll see how things progress to determine to what extent that is an alarm.

Spoiler: show
Marmot wrote:
Creature wrote: I could see it being Marmot + NaateTheLesser

Maybe DrWilgy for third
Ooh yes, do explain this one.
Marmot wrote:
Marmot wrote:
Seanzie wrote:
Marmot wrote:
Creature wrote: I could see it being Marmot + NaateTheLesser

Maybe DrWilgy for third
Ooh yes, do explain this one.
Hi Marmot. I was nice and voted you earlier, so can you be nice and let me know if you have any thoughts on alignments thus far?
I'm getting there, this is my first time opening the thread since the first hour or two.
Which is why I'm amazed that I found a read from Creature that slots my name as scum with someone else.
Marmot wrote:
Boquise wrote:
Creature wrote: I could see it being Marmot + NaateTheLesser

Maybe DrWilgy for third
2/3 of those have been fairly quiet. It is sorta typical to scum read the low posters because everyone sounds so townie and solvy. Is there anything on Marmot that you felt, as you wrote this post, was wolfy?

Given that I'd only posted that I was going to slank until Day 1, I'm also curious about this.
Marmot wrote: For the record, I was crying, but I was not frozen.

What else did I miss except for Creature accusing me of being frozen multiple times?
Marmot wrote:
Creature wrote:
Marmot wrote: For the record, I was crying, but I was not frozen.

What else did I miss except for Creature accusing me of being frozen multiple times?
Just stop being frozen.
Why do you read me as frozen?
Marmot wrote:
Creature wrote: Marmot:

[Let It Go image]

Ok but can you answer my question?
Marmot wrote: Anyway, I do think that Creature's argument to elim me because I am frozen is not a good one. If it's a pressure vote to get me to post content, fine, but I hope he's willing to reconsider at least.
Marmot wrote:
Creature wrote:
Marmot wrote: Dizzy is drfunky and gay

Creature is now frozen.
No, I'm bored.
Can you answer my question please?
Marmot wrote: [VOTE: Creature] aubergine
Marmot wrote:
Creature wrote: Oh just noticed Marmot has a wagon
Yeh

This set of posts throws off the timeline of this ISO review slightly, but they all relate to Creature. Creature placed Marmot on an early team of three theory, and this caused Marmot to give Creature a lot of attention thereafter. I appreciate Marmot's persistence here. Small point.

Spoiler: show
Marmot wrote: [VOTE: Dizzy] aubergine

We're now the leading wagons :haha:
Marmot wrote: [VOTE: falcon] aubergine

I'm going to read his ISO, but I'm having trouble reading his current behavior as townie.
Marmot wrote: [VOTE: ender] aubergine

Join my Wilgy

Marmot went on a minor vote movement adventure toward EOD1. The vote for Dizzy tied him for the poll lead with falcon, and the vote for falcon gave him a 2-vote lead. In that way each of them could be called moderately consequential toward shaping the EOD scenario. The Ender vote made it Falcon 6 - Ender 2 and accordingly made less of a difference. Marmot's progression in this sequence is nicely laid out in his posts. He explored a falcon elimination here (click) and here (click). He then reviewed Ender's progression on falcon here (click) and decided that he liked it less, hence leading to his final vote. I think that this stuff looks nice for Marmot. Given that falcon was town, Marmot had the ammunition needed to stand pat and let the chop go -- but he continued to work and try to find the best option available.

Spoiler: show
Marmot wrote: Tell me you townread me.

This kind of mirrors the second point I made in this thread. While Marmot and I don't quite have a Sloonei/JJJ understanding of each other, by this point our corresponding metas have become reasonably clear to one another as compared to [at least my] experiences with most other Syndicate regulars. So, wifom aside, I appreciate the vibe of this demand.

Spoiler: show
Marmot wrote: Currently, I think the following are various shades of town:

Town

Alison - town
Creature - light town
DrWilgy - strong town
Dyslexicon - light town
RondoDimBuckle - light town
fingersplints - light town
JaggedJimmyJay - strong town

Null

Boquise
lucy
NateTheLesser
Seanzie

Scum

EnderWiggin

I've never actually played with Boq, Nate, or lucy, nor have I put much thought into my read of them this game, which is why they are here. Sean, I don't recall having reason to believe is town (actually I did list one, but I no longer feel that reasoning exists), and Ender was the player I think looks most suspicious thus far.

I don't feel comfortable with the state of this read list, so I will put some effort into adjusting this, both in further informing my poor reads and also further pursuing if I still feel that my light town reads are still townie. I do feel confident on Wilgy and Jay at least.

Marmot's initial takes on Day 2. That strong town read on DrWilgy still stands out. This might end up becoming the crux of the Marmot review, but we'll see.

Spoiler: show
Marmot wrote:
Seanzie wrote:
Marmot wrote:
Seanzie wrote:
Marmot wrote:
Seanzie wrote:
Marmot wrote: [VOTE: sean] aubergine
You should tell me about... me.
I found your reaction to Dizzy's vote paltry.

I found your reaction to my vote amusing, but also paltry.
How would you expect town!Sean to react to a naked vote from a player that usually has an okay read on him?
I would expect town!you to have more to say at this point on Day 2 than questioning a vote on you.
Marmot... Marmot marmot marmot...
[VOTE: Ender] aubergine

This exchange made me laugh

Spoiler: show
Marmot wrote:
Seanzie wrote:
Marmot wrote:
Seanzie wrote:
Marmot wrote:
Seanzie wrote:
Marmot wrote:

It is very real, and can be read in P#1890
You don't believe it. It is BS.

Cool.
Agreed, outing a wolf is pretty cool.

I've changed my mind, but not not for the reason you might think.
On what?
I was reading Mac's ISO and came across an interaction you had with him talking about Creature, and thought it was a very good take, and most likely a townie take. I have a harder time seeing wolf!you bothering to stick your neck out for a player like Creature (who seems to get misread often).

Seanzie took a few bites at Marmot, and it more or less led here. Marmot doesn't seem to care about the suspicion, which I'd call NAI, and found a unique and separate reason to townread Sean, which is decent.

Spoiler: show
Marmot wrote: I'm rereading Ender's Day 1 ISO and am feeling less confident that he's actually a hit.

He's shitposted a lot, but there are flashes of opinions that I like. His treating of JJJ's readlist I think is townie. While I don't like his falcon vote, that's not the only vote he made Day 1 that kinda lacked context. He did so with fingersplits as well as Wilgy.

I also read a little bit of his Champs game (where he was wolf), and there was way less shitposting early on. He might have just taken that game more seriously, but the approach is very different here.



Hmmmmm

Marmot had been suspicious of Ender, and that halfway kinda turned here, at least for a time. For the sake of progression it's fine.

Spoiler: show
Marmot wrote: To anyone who is voting for fingersplints, here's a couple links to recent wolf games from her.

Fargo Mafia - ok this was from a year ago. This is one of fs's most active games I've seen, she spent a lot of time early on talking about pretty much anything but reads, and even her reads were not very strong at the start.
Mafia Syndicate Normal Game - this is from a few months ago, fs barely posted, and her posts were all very short, and she does seem stilted in this one.

I'm not seeing either of these things from her. Yes fingersplints doesn't post a lot, but that is normal for her (and really it's that the rest of us just post way too much). What I have seen here is an almost immediate attempt to generate reads, explain them, and she's also considering how the game will play out based on flips and looking ahead, an approach which appears to be lacking in her scum meta.

I'd call her town right now.

I'd call this one of Marmot's more important posts. He's not the only one that has stood in fingersplints' corner, but this probably represents the most thorough effort to do so. This is similar to his Day 1 handling of Wilgy, so there's a certain aura of defend-the-low-hanging-fruit that Marmot has adopted. I think he is more likely to bother with this if he is town and legitimately believes it, unless he is exactly mafia with fingersplints.

Spoiler: show
Marmot wrote: I'm going to work, have fun peeps.


Jay, can you do a Dizzy/Wilgy pairing?

Maybe this is the first hint of Wilgy suspicion forming.

Spoiler: show
Marmot wrote: [VOTE: Wilgy] aubergine

My confidence that Wilgy is town has vanished and I want to try this vote.
Marmot wrote:
Spoiler: show
DrWilgy wrote: Been vastly busy today.

See Dizzy as prime target? I accept this.

Ender/Marmot/Seanzie are also acceptable.

What's goin on in the thread?
DrWilgy wrote:
Creature wrote:
DrWilgy wrote:
Creature wrote:
DrWilgy wrote: What's goin on in the thread?
Feels like we're on fire

A fire like this

Image
I see.

Tell me why Dizzy over Seanzie?
Mac's list + I get the feeling Dyslexicon is playing a wolfgame here
Understood. Now how about Wiggin?
DrWilgy wrote: Dizzy, help me yeet [VOTE: Ender] aubergine

The concern I have with Wilgy today is that this is the information he has volunteered, and it consists solely of an intention to kill Ender. It's very singularly-focused.

On a related note, Ender has not mentioned Wilgy yet today, nor responded to his vote. I'm not sure what to make of that (it could be that he just hasn't been around since Wilgy's vote).

Alright, there it is. We're left to take it or leave it. I'm a bit torn. I'll pose a question for Marmot:

Why was it a significant problem, in your view, that Wilgy seemed singularly focused on Ender? How does this differ from your expectation of a town Wilgy?

It should be noted that this was not Marmot's final vote of Day 2, though it did eventually return to Wilgy.

Spoiler: show
Marmot wrote:
lucy wrote: Seanzie isn't trying to make friends and all his messages have been game relevant and inquisitive. he hasn't pressed anyone at all yet which is something I want to see, dunno if he ever presses people to begin with though. and I don't see any possible partners for him
Sean hasn't pressed people?
Marmot wrote:
lucy wrote:
Marmot wrote:
lucy wrote: Seanzie isn't trying to make friends and all his messages have been game relevant and inquisitive. he hasn't pressed anyone at all yet which is something I want to see, dunno if he ever presses people to begin with though. and I don't see any possible partners for him
Sean hasn't pressed people?
only a question or two, if anything further it wasn't game related, ender stuff doesn't count because he never got an answer to begin with. just super inquisitive without the aggression and force I'd usually see from that much attention paid to the game
He had a fairly lengthy back and forth with Jay earlier today?
Marmot wrote: And sean also had one with me early on today.
Marmot wrote: Sorry lucy, I think your perception of sean is way off.

Also, I think he's more likely to fight people than make friends in a mafia game, per your observation of him not making friends.
Marmot wrote:
lucy wrote:
Marmot wrote:
lucy wrote:
Marmot wrote:
lucy wrote: Seanzie isn't trying to make friends and all his messages have been game relevant and inquisitive. he hasn't pressed anyone at all yet which is something I want to see, dunno if he ever presses people to begin with though. and I don't see any possible partners for him
Sean hasn't pressed people?
only a question or two, if anything further it wasn't game related, ender stuff doesn't count because he never got an answer to begin with. just super inquisitive without the aggression and force I'd usually see from that much attention paid to the game
He had a fairly lengthy back and forth with Jay earlier today?
two sided, pressing is one sided
He pressed Jay and he pressed me. I call it a back and forth because two people were involved in the conversation.

But now I'm really confused, what sort of pressing are you looking for from him?
Marmot wrote: I think sean is an aggressive player. Different than Mac, but still agressive, I think he has done that this game.

But I agree with sean, I don't know why you are looking for that specifically from him unless you either knew that was his meta, or are that good at picking up on players' playstyles, or have gathered that meta from the thread.
Marmot wrote: [VOTE: lucy] aubergine
Marmot wrote:
lucy wrote:
Seanzie wrote:
lucy wrote:
Marmot wrote:
lucy wrote:
Marmot wrote:

Sean hasn't pressed people?
only a question or two, if anything further it wasn't game related, ender stuff doesn't count because he never got an answer to begin with. just super inquisitive without the aggression and force I'd usually see from that much attention paid to the game
He had a fairly lengthy back and forth with Jay earlier today?
two sided, pressing is one sided
Why would you be looking for this behavior specifically for me? Please answer this question, I believe it is important.
because you're reading everything and responding with a fine tooth comb, actually putting a decent amount of work into formulating your own reads and responding to odd messages and getting into arguments based off specific wording. being more aggressive would be relative to the effort a player has put into the game

I think the blue part is accurate, but I don't understand how that isn't already the pink part and why you would expect more.
Marmot wrote:
lucy wrote:
Marmot wrote: [VOTE: lucy] aubergine
if I was mafia would I be clumsy enough to make that read when I didn't have to?
I wouldn't call it impossible, but I also unfortunately don't know the answer to that question because I don't know you.

You probably wouldn't, but I've seen extremely skilled players make silly mistakes before so :shrug:
Marmot wrote:
lucy wrote: think about it, the more time you spend doing something the more emotions you put into it, the more feelings you thusly express. simply applied it to what I saw
sean is an entirely emotionless being

Spoiler: show
Ok now I'm joking

Here's the Day 2 exchanges with lucy and Seanzie. One might assert that Marmot was too harsh about interpreting meanings like "pushing". I don't really feel that way and found it to be an awkward stretch for lucy myself. He didn't hang on to it anyway (click)

Spoiler: show
Marmot wrote: Calling Jay mature is, uh... probably only true inside the game of mafia.

The word "farts" appears in this review.

Spoiler: show
Marmot wrote:
Seanzie wrote:
Boquise wrote: ftr i think both finger and marmot are town
I would vote Wilgy with you if there was more of a push for it.
[VOTE: Wilgy] aubergine
Marmot wrote: [VOTE: Creature] aubergine
Marmot wrote: I also think lucy is not compatible with Wilgy based on an early Day 1 post I saw.

Jay is though, and choosing to not consider him a suspect on the pretense that his associations are lacking is a little too convenient.
Marmot wrote: [VOTE: Wilgy] aubergine

Creature didn't even budge lol

The last vote in this string was Marmot's final of Day 2 (made it 5-3-2, Wilgy-fingersplints-Ender). I don't really understand how Marmot has operated with respect to Wilgy and will need clarification on that front. The orange bit irks me a bit given that pretty much every time I do these charts removing suspects with few associations is a premier goal that I make explicit.

Conclusion

Marmot. Marmot Marmot Marmot. I like the majority of his content, and I think that his overarching spirit of play has been of a town appearance. He is generally within my view of his own town game, and his efforts more or less appear authentic. There's just one signficant BUT that complicates the review, and it's Marmot's handling of DrWilgy. I'm not saying this is o u t i n g, it's just something that needs to be hashed out as clearly as possible. Minds are allowed to change as long as it makes sense for them to change. Gun to my head Marmot is town.
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Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 3]

#3604

Post by robyn »

NateTheLesser wrote: Mon Jul 04, 2022 9:28 pm
lucy wrote: Mon Jul 04, 2022 9:16 pm [VOTE: Sleep] aubergine

I have iso'd marmot, I think he's probably town tbh. I was mad that he was pushing and made a mistake concerning me
Did you mostly focus on Marmot, or did you have time to look elsewhere too?
just him tbh, was kinda busy today and yesterday
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Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 3]

#3605

Post by Dyslexicon »

@JaggedJimmyJay How capable do you think Marmot is of fooling you?

How much did you care about Marmot's defence of Finger, and how did that inform your view of Finger. Cause it looks to me like you didn't care much at all, while being very aware of it.
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Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 3]

#3606

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

I appreciate the review you did, Nate. I think some key differences for me are that I am higher on both Dizzy and Creature. Some of my other adapted views through the break will be visible soon in my wall posts.
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Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 3]

#3607

Post by Alison »

Dyslexicon wrote: Mon Jul 04, 2022 9:20 pm @Alison Would very much like your thoughts on Jimmay and Creature in particular
I gave them in some detail before the break; I have JJJ in my immediate POE and a comfortable townread on Creature.
There's nothing that says a fake can't surpass the real thing.
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Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 3]

#3608

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

Creature is a player that I didn't have time to fully review in the same form, so as of right now I am still kind of working on gut impressions of both him and the game state.
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Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 3]

#3609

Post by Dyslexicon »

Alison wrote: Mon Jul 04, 2022 9:31 pm
Dyslexicon wrote: Mon Jul 04, 2022 9:20 pm @Alison Would very much like your thoughts on Jimmay and Creature in particular
I gave them in some detail before the break; I have JJJ in my immediate POE and a comfortable townread on Creature.
Oh ok. I should get up to speed totally first.

I feel like your direction has probably been quite bad this game so far. What do you think?
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Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 3]

#3610

Post by Alison »

Dyslexicon wrote: Mon Jul 04, 2022 9:33 pm
Alison wrote: Mon Jul 04, 2022 9:31 pm
Dyslexicon wrote: Mon Jul 04, 2022 9:20 pm @Alison Would very much like your thoughts on Jimmay and Creature in particular
I gave them in some detail before the break; I have JJJ in my immediate POE and a comfortable townread on Creature.
Oh ok. I should get up to speed totally first.

I feel like your direction has probably been quite bad this game so far. What do you think?
I don't feel that way. What makes you think that?
There's nothing that says a fake can't surpass the real thing.
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Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 3]

#3611

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

Alison wrote: Mon Jul 04, 2022 9:31 pmI have JJJ in my immediate POE
You'd referenced the notion that we've failed to kill mafia and that "arrogantly" you don't think town is here if you/Mac/myself are all town. Is there more to POEing me than that?
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Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 3]

#3612

Post by Dyslexicon »

Alison wrote: Mon Jul 04, 2022 9:34 pmI don't feel that way. What makes you think that?
D2 you were gunning for Finger, Ender and me. For example. But I'll come back to this probably.
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Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 3]

#3613

Post by Alison »

Dyslexicon wrote: Mon Jul 04, 2022 9:35 pm
Alison wrote: Mon Jul 04, 2022 9:34 pmI don't feel that way. What makes you think that?
D2 you were gunning for Finger, Ender and me. For example. But I'll come back to this probably.
That's accurate. Why's it a bad direction?
There's nothing that says a fake can't surpass the real thing.
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Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 3]

#3614

Post by Dyslexicon »

I'll begin here: I think Boq is strictly town now. I found a general town tell that I've never seen fail before. If he is the first, so be it. That plus the detail of what he's noticing is enough for me.
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Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 3]

#3615

Post by Dyslexicon »

Alison wrote: Mon Jul 04, 2022 9:36 pm
Dyslexicon wrote: Mon Jul 04, 2022 9:35 pm
Alison wrote: Mon Jul 04, 2022 9:34 pmI don't feel that way. What makes you think that?
D2 you were gunning for Finger, Ender and me. For example. But I'll come back to this probably.
That's accurate. Why's it a bad direction?
Probably all town. But as I said, I'll come back to this
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Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 3]

#3616

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

Dyslexicon wrote: Mon Jul 04, 2022 9:31 pm @JaggedJimmyJay How capable do you think Marmot is of fooling you?

How much did you care about Marmot's defence of Finger, and how did that inform your view of Finger. Cause it looks to me like you didn't care much at all, while being very aware of it.
I think he's reasonably capable of fooling me in the sense that his game should be respected. I'm not sure it's happened that many times though.

Marmot's view of fingersplints has meant something to me. It has not redefined my view of splints, because I think there are still concerns to be addressed with her slot, but perhaps it has made some difference to encourage my voting hands to other people to this point.
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Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 3]

#3617

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

Dyslexicon wrote: Mon Jul 04, 2022 9:37 pm I'll begin here: I think Boq is strictly town now. I found a general town tell that I've never seen fail before. If he is the first, so be it. That plus the detail of what he's noticing is enough for me.
It is extremely important that you expand on this when you're able. I have a different view.
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Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 3]

#3618

Post by Dyslexicon »

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Mon Jul 04, 2022 9:38 pm
Dyslexicon wrote: Mon Jul 04, 2022 9:31 pm @JaggedJimmyJay How capable do you think Marmot is of fooling you?

How much did you care about Marmot's defence of Finger, and how did that inform your view of Finger. Cause it looks to me like you didn't care much at all, while being very aware of it.
I think he's reasonably capable of fooling me in the sense that his game should be respected. I'm not sure it's happened that many times though.

Marmot's view of fingersplints has meant something to me. It has not redefined my view of splints, because I think there are still concerns to be addressed with her slot, but perhaps it has made some difference to encourage my voting hands to other people to this point.
Why has it not redefined your view on Splints? If Marmot is wrong, would you not care to argue against his town case? Marmot seems sure.
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Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 3]

#3619

Post by Alison »

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Mon Jul 04, 2022 9:35 pm
Alison wrote: Mon Jul 04, 2022 9:31 pmI have JJJ in my immediate POE
You'd referenced the notion that we've failed to kill mafia and that "arrogantly" you don't think town is here if you/Mac/myself are all town. Is there more to POEing me than that?
There is the question of why Seanzie died over you. One explanation is that you are mafia. There are other explanations, like that Seanzie was onto someone, but it's a possibility I am considering, especially since one of the people Seanzie was "onto" has flipped town and I think another is also town.

The way you and Ender sprang at each other at SOD3, followed by relatively little interaction or pushing after that initial spat, was weird and I said so at the time. You've since clarified that you were scumreading Ender since the day before, but I still think the way you attacked him, calling his posts "fake" etc., smacks of a generic treatment that I don't associate with town you.
There's nothing that says a fake can't surpass the real thing.
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Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 3]

#3620

Post by Dyslexicon »

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Mon Jul 04, 2022 9:39 pm
Dyslexicon wrote: Mon Jul 04, 2022 9:37 pm I'll begin here: I think Boq is strictly town now. I found a general town tell that I've never seen fail before. If he is the first, so be it. That plus the detail of what he's noticing is enough for me.
It is extremely important that you expand on this when you're able. I have a different view.
I won't, because I intend to use it again. I'm interested to hear your view though.
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Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 3]

#3621

Post by Alison »

Dyslexicon wrote: Mon Jul 04, 2022 9:38 pm
Alison wrote: Mon Jul 04, 2022 9:36 pm
Dyslexicon wrote: Mon Jul 04, 2022 9:35 pm
Alison wrote: Mon Jul 04, 2022 9:34 pmI don't feel that way. What makes you think that?
D2 you were gunning for Finger, Ender and me. For example. But I'll come back to this probably.
That's accurate. Why's it a bad direction?
Probably all town. But as I said, I'll come back to this
I definitely don't think they're all town.
There's nothing that says a fake can't surpass the real thing.
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Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 3]

#3622

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

Dyslexicon wrote: Mon Jul 04, 2022 9:40 pm Why has it not redefined your view on Splints? If Marmot is wrong, would you not care to argue against his town case? Marmot seems sure.
It's a meta-dependent and small-sample viewpoint that I am not sure pays full enough respect to fingersplints' capability as a player. But he can still be right. I have also had some small inklings of town from splints in this game that I have shared independent of Marmot. It's just not a confident matter, and the bar of "what is town" is elevated now.
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Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 3]

#3623

Post by Dyslexicon »

Rondo is also very townie to me.
One question though,
@RondoDimBuckle The one game I played with you, you were town siding 3p. You were a lot more tunnely in that game. Here you seem more careful and considerate, though not really going anywhere. Do you think that is a fair assessment? Do you know why that is?
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Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 3]

#3624

Post by Dyslexicon »

Alison wrote: Mon Jul 04, 2022 9:42 pmI definitely don't think they're all town.
Your full current view of me?
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Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 3]

#3625

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

I'll share my Boq review now while you're around Dizzy.
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Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 3]

#3626

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

Let's ISO Boquise

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Spoiler: show
Boquise wrote:
RondoDimBuckle wrote: The name "Nate the lesser" implies a greater nate out there. Are you afraid of him? @NateTheLesser
This post made me laugh tbh
You can have a town lean
Boquise wrote:
Seanzie wrote: I know it is only day 0 and I know I've not actually seen Jay as scum, but kinda okay calling Jay town right now and not worrying about it for at least like 20 minutes or so.
Gut reading this as town
Boquise wrote:
falcon45ca wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
falcon45ca wrote: JJJ and Sean doing a cute lil' dance around each other here.


69% chance one of em' is Maf
Please tell me more, falcon. Tell me everything.
OK, but it'll cost ya.

If you're good at something, never do it for free
You're quite more jokish than in your quali. Albeit i have only D1 so far tbh

Are you feeling more relaxed or something? Considering this isn't a high stakes game tbh
Boquise wrote:
lucy wrote: I thought we were just talking
I think I want to town read lucy
Boquise wrote:
RondoDimBuckle wrote:
lucy wrote: what did you think it was?
lucy wrote: I thought we were just talking
RondoDimBuckle wrote:
lucy wrote: check out Robert Eggars if you want very good films to make you feel very uncomfortable
trying to get in my pocket are you? Or is it put me in yours? I dont know all the lingo yet but Im watching you
I have had people who I got into a good talk about good tv shows before put a blind spot on me because I didnt want to figure out their slot because we were enjoying each others company. They were wolf and we lost so hard, so I am not letting anything innocent pass
I can possibly town lean this. Scum could go at this approach but I find it likelier to be town tbh
Boquise wrote:
EnderWiggin wrote: I refuse to scumhunt on D0 so enjoy me sitting around memeing and pocketing Rondo
Kinda out of nowhere tbh
Boquise wrote:
lucy wrote:
EnderWiggin wrote:
lucy wrote:
EnderWiggin wrote:
lucy wrote:
EnderWiggin wrote:

I am somewhat familiar with everyone in this lobby.

Including you after speccing your game so much lol
lmao, that’s reassuring
Hi.
hello, how are ya?
Tired and distracted, you?
focused and well rested
Ender, did you write your "I refuse to scum hunt on D0" post because of this Lucy post?
Boquise wrote:
Creature wrote: I'm surprised I wasn't quoted anywhere
Hello Creature tbh
Why are you surprised about this? You were also quoted.
Creature wrote: I have a wolflean already, but maybe I should wait for day 1 to start first
There is a strategic rationale to hide a wolf lean during D0 imo. Why do you think you should wait tbh?

Here's a hodge-podge of Boq vibe reads from the initial Day 0 period. I appreciate the proactivity, though I acknowledge that naked vibe reads like these aren't that hard to post for mafia.

Spoiler: show
Boquise wrote: Also, I have become a bit too old and seasoned to be worried on how I come across and whether I fit in in a new community. So if I am being annoying and stuff, just tell me tbh!

Same tbh. When I play somewhere new I just kinda go full Me and let them react to it however they will tbh. Good attitude tbh. This is irrelevant to the ISO I just wanted to say tbh

Spoiler: show
Boquise wrote:
Creature wrote: ITT people discuss how to play champs but don't follow their own advices
Who do you think isn't following their advice and why?
Boquise wrote: Regarding the "not say your wolf leans on D0" thing I asked Creature about. I mentioned that there are some reasons and given Creature has now replied, I will say mine.

Scum reads tend to make people defensive/emotional. Since D0 seems to be jokish, I reckon it could from one perspective ruin the "chill phase" and from another perspective, give scum hints on how to act accordingly.

I am not really pro hiding thoughts, but I think it is better to focus on town reads. I did have a dude on my ol' homesite who was great at sniffing out scum in our N1 phases tho (we had N1 starting before D1 and open night chat for everyone) by just looking at how players acted, if they were nervous etc.


Creature's response is lol and creature-esque. I'm not really satisfied, but it is D0 so!

Just logging as a starting point for Boq's take on Creature.

Spoiler: show
Boquise wrote: Honestly i don't want to come off as a try-hard tbh! But I am feeling like a race horse just waiting to start galloping! Jurying has made me super excited to play mafia again, and I was going to get that itch in Team Mafia (a game where each player slot consists of multiple players but only one acc can post for each day) and the game got solved before it was my turn to play in the thread!! It was fun solving in our btsc but still

Then I played a gif only game and it was fun and stuff, but limited what I could say and I was also busy at that time.

So I am thinking in five dimensions right now smh tbh!

Boq projects a certain eagerness to get into the thick of the Mafia experience, and I think his play to this point is a decent reflection of that. He took plenty of stances at least.

Spoiler: show
Boquise wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
EnderWiggin wrote: I have been told by many people about the mythical Creature Spam.

I have yet to see it actually happen.
I think a decent portion of my perspective is derived from recent surfing around MU as I compiled statistics and saw Creature with a million posts in X or Y games. Have you played with him often
Creature definitely posts more as town than scum and had a defeatist persona as scum where he hardly posted. However he has improved a lot during these last years tbh.

Iirc I spearheaded a Creature misyeet in our first game and everyone chastised me on how it was obvious Creature town meta lmao

A few people challenged my meta perspective about Creature, so perhaps it's of note that Boq was one to essentially support it. The meaning of this moment depends mostly on Creature's alignment.

Spoiler: show
Boquise wrote:
RondoDimBuckle wrote:
Alison wrote:
RondoDimBuckle wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: @RondoDimBuckle, Alison has placed a vote on your head. Please talk about that and thanks
It is a thing she has done :shrug:. I dont really care too much because I knew it was coming and it makes me happy
Why would someone attacking you make you happy?
Because I am a giant troll and love when I can elicit an emotional reaction from people. Ala, you entering thread and insta voting me. Its predictability is food for the soul. It just makes me happy
Hmmmmmmmmmmmm
Townie schadenfreude, perhaps.jpeg tbh
Boquise wrote:
MacDougall wrote: hey rondo and boq, do you have anything interesting to say about who is or is not mafia?
Hi tbh
Lucy isn't mafia, Seanze isn't mafia, Alison isn't mafia tbh
Boquise wrote: I read Rondo as town, I think

Just a few more quick takes to throw into the cauldron for Day 0 and early Day 1. Tracking progressions as I go.

One trend I note is that when Boq's vibe read is positive, he tends to voice it concretely as "town" or "isn't mafia". When he is not making a town read on someone else, he tends to ask questions or poke instead of defaulting to "scum read". I like that as a general policy, though it likely doesn't say much about Boq's alignment.

Spoiler: show
Boquise wrote: Lmao I think it is fun!

I feel like thread state-wise, Rando is rand>town. Aside from being funny, I feel like they have made some tonally townie posts. Example: the one where they talk about AtE, not wanting to omgus Alison, then votes Alison. I am not sure at all how Rando approaches the game, but I don't think a scum player there would break the "lmao this is so funny that you're tunnelling me" spiel so quickly. I think these are things scum are more interested in keeping consistent.

I did get sad when they refused to help me with reading Ender tho

Alison is someone I have discussed with in MU discord regarding mafia theory, and I have seen her play (but haven't played with). So I know from start that I find her stiff and archaic when it comes to the game. It is easy for me to town read that sort of play when it is probably NAI. I am town reading her for her debacle with Rando. Specifically a post I quoted before saying "mmmm fair observation". My gut says that's townie tbh

Trying to not default to "lmao it is town vs town" though.

What are your thoughts on those two players?

Here's a development of some of those prior vibe reads, on Rondo and Alison. I'm glad that if Boq's inclination is to view both participants in the early Alison/Rondo kerfuffle as town, that he went to the trouble of providing individual, unique perspectives instead of, as he puts it, defaulting to the "lmao t/t".

Spoiler: show
Boquise wrote:
EnderWiggin wrote: Jay is absolutely able to replicate his town-leader-yness as wolf. While his content or detail mileage might vary, I find it hard to believe that Jay can be read on "Is he approaching game as a 'make town collaborate' thing?" given that's almost his trademark from all that people have told me in the past.
That's fair tbh
JJJ is a null for me right now tbh

I'm not sure I recall Boq giving a clear read on me in this game (other than null), so that's kind of weird. I have 400 posts, and probably had a solid hundo by this point. I'll see if there's anything in the ISO as I go.

Spoiler: show
Boquise wrote:
DrWilgy wrote:
I do not, but I do believe that town Mac would allow for more data before gauging someone he has a track record of reading correctly.

That is what's throwing me off. Your conclusion was drawn far more quickly than I'd expect.

However, the gusto I feel from your posts is in line to how I perceive town Mac. It is quite the contradiction.

Do you, Mac, feel as if your ability to read me has shifted at all in the past year? If so, do you feel it has improved or declined?
Maybe Mac plays differently here, but my expectation of town Mac is that he creates reads by tunnelling a player and looking at what ripples that causes in the thread. Basically going in with a machine gun and "100% sure someone is scum". So your first sentence doesn't really vibe with my experience tbh

Marking this down for the initial interaction of Boq with Wilgy. I want to see how this develops moving forward. This post on its own power means little to me.

Spoiler: show
Boquise wrote:
Alison wrote: @Boquise Run me through the reads you feel the strongest about, please.
Lucy - I think the way she approaches the thread and how she responded to my question on her wall to be alike how she played in her quali.

Seanze - I liked the way they started to form reads early on in D0

Mac - Now this one is a bit difficult. I have a few expectations of Mac when he plays as either alignment (and I have rn a 100% accuracy on reading him as both alignments). Rn I think he is checking off the town boxes. He is a bit tunnelly, but the tunnels help him form reads. Still am a bit wary because I am not used to Mac not being the loudest person in the room.


So plenty of my reads are not "strong" - they are feels. I am trying to replicate how I have read the games as a jury member, and add it to my regular repertoire. Which is to just bookmark things that on a first read feels "good" tbh

Alison asked Boq for his strongest reads, and he provided these three answers. It's a little surprising he referenced these lighter vibe-driven impressions of lucy and Seanzie instead of some reads he had developed more concretely. The Mac read is a waffle. Some trepidation is okay, we'll see how it develops.

Spoiler: show
Boquise wrote: I think Nate sounds similar to his G1 play tbh
We pretty much have the same poe!

This can serve as a summary of Boq's reads into the first half of Day 1. If his POE was pretty much the same as mine, you can click his post here to see what mine was for context.

Spoiler: show
Boquise wrote:
Creature wrote: I could see it being Marmot + NaateTheLesser

Maybe DrWilgy for third
2/3 of those have been fairly quiet. It is sorta typical to scum read the low posters because everyone sounds so townie and solvy. Is there anything on Marmot that you felt, as you wrote this post, was wolfy?

I believe this is Boq's first mention of Marmot, which has importance since that's where his Day 1 vote ended up landing. At this point Marmot had very few if any posts, so the question Boq presents here is pretty token and ~fine.

Spoiler: show
Boquise wrote:
Marmot wrote: Hey folks, my allergies have been killing me all evening, and playing mafia doesn't feel feasible. I won't be around until near the deadline. I'll try to catch up and participate at that point.
I was building up to push you but now that feels like morally wrong tbh

Or at least that I have made an assumption that is NAI

Will write something longer soonish and place a vote

I think Creature is town
Boquise wrote: Creature has several strings of posts next to each other containing game related stuff. I am still peeved by him ignoring my question, but I have learned the hard way that someone ignoring you doesn't make them scum.

I lean him town because of the post strings (on phone rn so can't quote them).

I had early misgivings on Falcon due to his change of tone from the quali, but I decided to not push there but read what else he'd produce, since it is a weak thing to scum read someone for. The fact that Falcon got pushed by a few peeps made me think that Falcon could be a set-up for D1 misyeet but I haven't really felt any townie vibes from Falcon so..

Marmot is the player has the most scum equity. He isn't taking part of much discussion, is basically just there trying to stay relevant. However now when I know that he has been away because of allergies, it does feel like my conclusion is made on wrong premises. Again, I am comparing qualis, but I wolf read Marmot that game and he was town. He also contributed a lot to discussion. Now I have felt some of Marmot's posts surface townie but lacking in content. Another thing is Marmot complaining about us posting a lot, when he was a high poster in his quali.

Those are my takes
Boquise wrote: Town:
Mac
Lucy
Alison
Rondo
Seanize
Nate? (Feels like the same approach as in his quali)
JJJ?
Creature?
Ender?

Neutral:
Finger
Wilgy (I respect Alison's take there tho)
Dizzy

Scum leans:
Falcon
Marmot
Boquise wrote: [VOTE: Marmot ] aubergine

This comes about 22 hours later, so clearly in that period Boq found reason to view Marmot with some suspicion. He stated his rationale in the second post here, which I have color coded (this time with colors deliberate -- red reflects an assertion of a scum read, orange reflects suspicion, and yellow reflects null or a caveat). The qualifiers present in this read (and in the falcon read before it) are a bit jarring. I get the sense that Boq doesn't want to scum read either of them but does anyway, and places them both in the bottommost tier of his follow-up reads list. That's a concerning moment from the standpoint of authenticity.

This made Boq the lone voter for Marmot, and it was his final vote of Day 1 about 14 hours prior to the deadline. He remained the lone Marmot voter at the time he departed the thread for the phase.

Spoiler: show
Boquise wrote:
Dyslexicon wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: btw Dizzy you're about to hit 10,000 posts, prepare your ceremony
:cloud9:

Also, I wasn't going to say anything. Remember there's not really objective standards for sincerity. But you already know this.
Depending on the alignment of certain players, this game can be very losable in the game state right now. Winnable too, for sure.
I look forward to admire your WIM, and everyone else's too.

Marmot and Alison for town, here. Everything else up in the air.
I was philosophising about Dizzy potentially being with Marmot as scum, and that they are protecting a weaker scum mate, but this post doesn't feel aligned tbh

Unclear why this Dizzy post would be unaligned with Marmot.

Spoiler: show
Boquise wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Marmot wrote: Sure
You are appreciated.

The last thing I was hoping to achieve is the classical night kill analysis. Many people balk at the very idea of trying this, and I think they're wrong. Wifom is wifom blah blah, but we're remiss if we don't at least take a look. Moreover, in a mountainous game, at least one of the layers of wifom does not exist -- there are no doctor dodges. So it'd behoove us to review Mac and see where he sat. What we do with that I don't know right now, but we honor his memory enough to give him a voice.

If that's something that tickles you, I'd love to see what you come up with.
I kinda expected to be the kill because I was during D1 consensus town read with no on-going conflicts with other players. Whereas Mac, also highly town read, had a thing with Wilgy that could be exploited and easier to tinfoil because of Falcon and of site history*.

*What I mean with site history is that I am an unknown variable whilst Mac is a tried gun.

This tells me that Mac's reads can have threatened the woofs tbh

:ponder:

Mac was anti-Wilgy on Day 1, so for his read to be "exploited" would imply that Wilgy is town. Perhaps this was Boq's Night 1 mindset or perhaps not, but it's to be considered within his broader Wilgy perspective.

Spoiler: show
Boquise wrote:
EnderWiggin wrote: I was memeing before but actually Marmot just wolf.
Yea, Marmot is still a scum lean for me tbh

k why

Spoiler: show
Boquise wrote:
Marmot wrote: To anyone who is voting for fingersplints, here's a couple links to recent wolf games from her.

Fargo Mafia - ok this was from a year ago. This is one of fs's most active games I've seen, she spent a lot of time early on talking about pretty much anything but reads, and even her reads were not very strong at the start.
Mafia Syndicate Normal Game - this is from a few months ago, fs barely posted, and her posts were all very short, and she does seem stilted in this one.

I'm not seeing either of these things from her. Yes fingersplints doesn't post a lot, but that is normal for her (and really it's that the rest of us just post way too much). What I have seen here is an almost immediate attempt to generate reads, explain them, and she's also considering how the game will play out based on flips and looking ahead, an approach which appears to be lacking in her scum meta.

I'd call her town right now.
Does Finger tend to use aggressive phrasing as town when questioned?

This is an odd moment that recalls some of lucy's controversies. I don't think fingersplints has used "aggressive phrasing" in this game. Interpretations can vary, so I dunno. Much more recently Boq expanded here (click). I don't think that post is aggressively phrased. :shrug2:

Spoiler: show
Boquise wrote:
fingersplints wrote: Also thanks to those who answered my question about Boq. The wording is less weird since they do seem to be considered town, however it does still ping me a little when anyone talks about them myself in terms of being so town.
They are still null for me I guess
Gun to head: scum without much thread control doesn't take issue when a consensus town read townie calls themselves consensus town read. That scum player is likely to sheep the read for the moment and push elsewhere.

It is more town indicative to try to think independently and be paranoid over such statements. It is also pretty town indicative to not be generous with these sort of things. Disliking that someone reiterates town reads on them in a neutral manner is irrational and therefore also townie tbh

It's decent that despite the previous thing Boq ended up town reading fingersplints to some degree. Whatever the interpretation was of aggressive phrasing, the trajectory of that interpretation wasn't one of opportunism.

Spoiler: show
Boquise wrote: Ftr Marmot's posts today gives me neither scum reads nor town reads. I haven't really cared I guess tbh

But it is noted that we have the same conclusion on Finger
Boquise wrote: @lucy why is it important in your opinion that Marmot and I today engage with each other?
Boquise wrote:
Marmot wrote:
Boquise wrote: @lucy why is it important in your opinion that Marmot and I today engage with each other?
Because we're both town, and it'd be a neat distraction from finding wolves. :wowee:
Lmao
Are you trying to pocket me

I could argue after a closer look at the first half of this ISO that lucy's concern was at least observant. I wish Boq did more to directly interact with Marmot before this point, because his read wasn't really moving. Marmot was his Day 1 vote after all.

Spoiler: show
Boquise wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Boquise wrote: Let's have an exercise
If you had an alignment check, who would be your first pick to check and why?
Wilgy

I think that sort would potentially break the game open
Huh hm
In your analysis of interactions, he is in the least amount of worlds though? Wouldn't it be better to pick someone who has equity with plenty of people?

Logging this as concrete that Boq was aware of my interactive analysis chart and Wilgy's place on it. This concerns me, because Boq ended the day with his vote on Wilgy. I will read on and get more context before I take that farther.

Spoiler: show
Boquise wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: @Boquise how do you feel about these wagons?
I lean Finger town and whilst I am nervous to call Marmot (I saw that little pocket attempt), I currently wouldn't want to meet him.

And the wagons as a whole:
Finger, Marmot, Creature, Lucy, Dizzy, Ender (tho idr if they are a wagon rn) - all match the "weird player not vibing with the thread atmosphere" archetype. In champs this year, this is the archetype that usually got yeeted and most of them were town that couldn't really get into town. I am not saying that all of these players are town, there were scum in champs that also qualified in this archetype.

But it makes me stop and think.
However, looking at the list I wrote, I would add at least Nate and Rondo too (only that I am currently trying to shield both). This is almost the whole player list so wtf yo?

Eh. Agree or disagree with Boq's premise here (that atypically-styled players are bait), the last sentence tends to invalidate the whole post. The orange thing is also a bit ugly at face value.

Spoiler: show
Boquise wrote: Oh yeah Wilgy also qualifies to that archetype

He certainly does, probably more than anyone else. Why vote

Spoiler: show
Boquise wrote: But there has been plentiful of reactions when I have shielded LHF

INTERESTIIIIIING
Boquise wrote: Yo @JaggedJimmyJay
since you are much more used at analysing associations, what do you think of this?

[quotes snipped for length]

(which tho is kinda unrelated to what happened in the thread and stuff but still!)

How does this affect their (Nate, Finger, Dizzy) association with Alison?
Does this make them less or more likely, iyo, to be a wolf if Alison is wolf, or if Alison is town?
Boquise wrote: my qualms here with Alison is that she is on paper doing pushes that are easy to vibe with.
However they are textbook

So it depends on how much nuance she has when she towns tbh
Boquise wrote: [VOTE: Alison] aubergine

I wont keep this vote if Alison doesnt come back to the thread. If she is town, she is too valuable.

Over the latter portion of Day 2, Boq began a motion against Alison. It could be called "consistent" with the previous concerns about going after players that aren't "standard" for lack of a better word whereas Alison is by-the-book. I might like this moment more if I had a clearer understanding of where it came from and what Alison content is being described as textbook.

Spoiler: show
Boquise wrote: I havent decided what your alignment is yet JJJ, but you get a thumbs up anyway tbh

Why not?

Spoiler: show
Boquise wrote: out of the lhf folks, I am the most into voting Wilgy.
Boquise wrote:
MacDougall wrote:
DrWilgy wrote:
MacDougall wrote:
DrWilgy wrote: Ah! An interesting conundrum! *Sits up from study and lifts paper to light*

Seanzie, can be scum in this scenario. When given the opportunity to expand thinking, a joke reply was given not even considering alternatives to the action of voting me.

EnderWiggin I do not have enough data on, this can be either way.

*Brings the paper back down and stands up, beginning to pace around his study*

Macdougall however intrigues me the most here. I do believe that Mac has a good read on me, but is either wrong or is wolf. I do wonder if town Mac pushes on me in effort to solve, but the fervor I see does not seem to indicate that this is in fact fishing. Yes, Mac who is good at reading me, I do not feel would commit this hard to a scum read on me at this point. This is potentially Scum Mac. I will review in the morning as it is time for the doctor to get some well deserved rest.

My studies on Jay the all consuming will continue tomorrow.

*Turns off the lights and exits stage left*
So do you think that town Mac should be townreading you for your play prior to this post? If so can you show me the parts where you've towntold to a degree where you'd expect me to notice?
I do not, but I do believe that town Mac would allow for more data before gauging someone he has a track record of reading correctly.

That is what's throwing me off. Your conclusion was drawn far more quickly than I'd expect.

However, the gusto I feel from your posts is in line to how I perceive town Mac. It is quite the contradiction.

Do you, Mac, feel as if your ability to read me has shifted at all in the past year? If so, do you feel it has improved or declined?
First sentence, since when have you known me to not be bullish with making reads immediately? I don't think my track record of reading you is superb. I've read you wrong quite a lot. I think I read you poorly when we first started playing, went through a patch of reading you really well, and then when you came back from hiatus and started playing more intentionally I lost my ability to read you because you were playing entirely new again.

In this game you just seem to be making posts for the sake of it.
this post makes me think back on my discussion with Wilgys regarding him scum reading Mac for the push tbh
hm.
Boquise wrote: [VOTE: DrWilgy] aubergine
Boquise wrote: i'mma sleep

my vote is on Wilgy because I think a player who has history (according to Marmot iirc) with mac should not crumble at Mac pressure tbh

Here's the final Wilgy progression. This bothers me a lot on a few dimensions.

1) This is another day phase in which Boq's final vote went to a player that, in that moment, had no other votes. Boq's Marmot vote on Day 1 was a similar case, albeit earlier in the phase. This time, Boq's vote made the poll tally 4-2-1-1-1-1-1-1 (fingersplints-Marmot-Ender-Dizzy-Wilgy-lucy-Creature-Alison). As of Boq's final post of Day 2 (8:12 PM EDT, 7:12 PM per Nate's records), the poll tally was 4-3-2-2 (Ender-fingersplints-Marmot-Wilgy). Neither Day 1 nor Day 2 allow me to say with any confidence that Boq is concerned with impacting the final vote.

2) I already mentioned this earlier, but I don't think the orange bit is a terribly fair viewpoint. It's a lot to say that Wilgy "crumbled", and knowing Mac should not make a big difference with respect to how impactful his pressure can be.

3) Boq did not seem to care at all about my interactive reviews or my chart. I already affirmed earlier in this review that he was aware of it, and of Wilgy's posture in it, and it doesn't appear to me that this made any difference to Boq at all when making his voting decision. Perhaps this is my conceit speaking, but I think Boq has more reason than many others would to at least pay some respect to the work I do in that kind of chart. He was in the game where I produced arguably my strongest interaction chart ever (correctly cleared Hally and Phighter, correctly isolated mafia teammates). I'm not saying anyone needs to treat my work like it is infallible, but it shouldn't be ignored outright. Moreover, this plays into a larger trend with Boq -- his treatment of me in this game. I have been a null read all along, or more recently I get a share of his tinfoil over night kill analysis but still without an actual read. I'm not sure Boq is paying much heed if any, or even attention, to the posts I make in this game thread.

Conclusion

This review represents, so far at least, the most significant production of the ISOs I have been doing through Day 3. I have a lot of concerns about Boquise, and that is a stark contrast to the perspective I had of him prior to this stage of the game. Some of these concerns are at a smaller level, and I don't ask that Boq address every single one of them -- that would not be a valuable use of the limited time remaining in the phase. But some of this stuff needs to be addressed, particularly the concerns I expressed about the Wilgy vote. I would really like to hear from other folks beyond Boq about this review as well, or about Boq in general, because this is the first time in the game he has been subjected to serious pressure of any sort. Let's talk about it.
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Overall: 74-58 (.56) | Town 49-42 (.54) | Mafia 19-11 (.63) | Independent 6-4 (.60)

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Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 3]

#3627

Post by Dyslexicon »

@EnderWiggin I feel like you've been very hedgy on Rondo. Why? If I didn't know better, I'd be worried that you wanted to hedge to avoid Rondo to get suspicious of you.
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Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 3]

#3628

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

Alison wrote: Mon Jul 04, 2022 9:40 pm There is the question of why Seanzie died over you. One explanation is that you are mafia. There are other explanations, like that Seanzie was onto someone, but it's a possibility I am considering, especially since one of the people Seanzie was "onto" has flipped town and I think another is also town.

The way you and Ender sprang at each other at SOD3, followed by relatively little interaction or pushing after that initial spat, was weird and I said so at the time. You've since clarified that you were scumreading Ender since the day before, but I still think the way you attacked him, calling his posts "fake" etc., smacks of a generic treatment that I don't associate with town you.
Ender hasn't really been around yet since that exchange, so the conversation has not moved. I'd love to hear other folks' perspective about it, and I have called for that -- but at a certain point I need the field to answer those calls. I am not sure where you would get the impression in orange. Saying things seem fake is quite ordinary, for me and probably for anyone.

Were you unaware before I told you this phase that I suspected Ender on Day 2?
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Overall: 74-58 (.56) | Town 49-42 (.54) | Mafia 19-11 (.63) | Independent 6-4 (.60)

The Syndicate: Town 23-27; Mafia 11-5; Indy 5-1 | RateYourMusic: Town 14-13; Mafia 5-4; Indy 0-3 | Mafia Universe: Town 6-0; Mafia 1-0 | Student Doctor Network: Town 2-1; Mafia 1-0 | HeroClixRealms: Town 1-0; Mafia 0-1 | Bulbagarden: Mafia 0-1; Indy 1-0 | 2+2 POG: Town 1-0 | Naruto Forums: Town 0-1 | Personality Café: Town 1-0 | Vendetta Strada: Town 0-1 | Mafia451: Town 1-0 | Wintreath: Mafia 1-0

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Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 3]

#3629

Post by Alison »

Dyslexicon wrote: Mon Jul 04, 2022 9:44 pm
Alison wrote: Mon Jul 04, 2022 9:42 pmI definitely don't think they're all town.
Your full current view of me?
You are in my upper POE. Your D3 has been decent, but you are more than capable of being decent as mafia. I no longer have concerns that you are luxuriating in anti-town play, but some of your reads are difficult to understand, and this concerns me. I would very much like for you to expand on why you think finger and Ender are probably town, when able.

You have made abrupt turnarounds in your reads of three players (Boq, finger, and myself), switching them from scum to town very rapidly, and you have been vague about these reasons; you said you didn't want to talk about your read on me in detail and said you just liked my D2 posts, actively refuse to discuss your tell on Boq, and I have no idea what your finger read is.

Those reasons put you in the POE. You have risen to upper POE because I have found the general direction of your D3 play agreeable; as mentioned before, I liked your towncore, and the way you treated Marmot has been townie in ways that I am unsure wolves bother faking.
There's nothing that says a fake can't surpass the real thing.
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Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 2]

#3630

Post by Dyslexicon »

Creature wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 8:49 pm It seems wolves know if they whine enough they can save themselves from being lynched
Where did this come from? You are the one whining.
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Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 3]

#3631

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

Sometimes when I put together these walls, they have a paralyzing effect that frustrates me. I understand that sometimes they can be difficult to absorb just for being massive, but I would really appreciate if folks could read them or skim them or look at the conclusions and share your perspectives.
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Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 3]

#3632

Post by Alison »

I struggled to read Lucy yesterday, and was hoping that her big case would shed some light on her thoughts. It seems like she's not going to do it after all, though.

I think I'd sum up my view on Lucy as being a mixed bag. I find myself liking her when she is making posts and coasting along, but when she comes under pressure she starts flailing in a way that bothers me. I cannot tell if she is a mafia member who's cracking under pressure after coasting along early, or if she just responds poorly to pressure and my initial assessment was accurate.

I have generally found her worldview to be at odds with mine and this deepens my concern. @lucy, do you still endorse your Boq/JJJ/Rondo towncore?
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Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 2]

#3633

Post by Dyslexicon »

EnderWiggin wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 9:04 pm AT most one wolf in Dizzy/Boq/Rondo tbh.

But I think there's none.
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Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 3]

#3634

Post by Dyslexicon »

Alison wrote: Mon Jul 04, 2022 10:01 pm I struggled to read Lucy yesterday, and was hoping that her big case would shed some light on her thoughts. It seems like she's not going to do it after all, though.

I think I'd sum up my view on Lucy as being a mixed bag. I find myself liking her when she is making posts and coasting along, but when she comes under pressure she starts flailing in a way that bothers me. I cannot tell if she is a mafia member who's cracking under pressure after coasting along early, or if she just responds poorly to pressure and my initial assessment was accurate.

I have generally found her worldview to be at odds with mine and this deepens my concern. @lucy, do you still endorse your Boq/JJJ/Rondo towncore?
I really like her persistent questioning and interest in Marmot and his relationship to Jay, and how they were treating her. That looked like real thoughts to me, and actual concern. I also liked how she commented how this game seemed harder than her quali, but I am admittedly a sucker for little comments like that.
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Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 3]

#3635

Post by Dyslexicon »

@Marmot Sometimes I feel you should be at least three times more paranoid of me than you seem to be. What do you think?
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Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 3]

#3636

Post by Dyslexicon »

Dyslexicon wrote: Mon Jul 04, 2022 10:11 pm @Marmot Sometimes I feel you should be at least three times more paranoid of me than you seem to be. What do you think?
Never mind. I don't know why I struggle. Game state, you have a high chance of being mafia. Meta wise, you are breaking out of your meta if you are mafia. Does that make sense?
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Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 3]

#3637

Post by EnderWiggin »

Dyslexicon wrote: Mon Jul 04, 2022 9:50 pm @EnderWiggin I feel like you've been very hedgy on Rondo. Why? If I didn't know better, I'd be worried that you wanted to hedge to avoid Rondo to get suspicious of you.
I'm around briefly. Things have been quite busy irl.

As for Rondo, he is aware of how I read in a way that only maybe Thunal can rival. I'm hedgy on him because it is difficult to actually find something I can 100% townread him for.

Usually this will be the case.

I did hard shield him in his first few games because I knew he'd get wagoned early if I didn't.
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Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 3]

#3638

Post by Dyslexicon »

EnderWiggin wrote: Mon Jul 04, 2022 10:14 pm
Dyslexicon wrote: Mon Jul 04, 2022 9:50 pm @EnderWiggin I feel like you've been very hedgy on Rondo. Why? If I didn't know better, I'd be worried that you wanted to hedge to avoid Rondo to get suspicious of you.
I'm around briefly. Things have been quite busy irl.

As for Rondo, he is aware of how I read in a way that only maybe Thunal can rival. I'm hedgy on him because it is difficult to actually find something I can 100% townread him for.

Usually this will be the case.

I did hard shield him in his first few games because I knew he'd get wagoned early if I didn't.
This answer leaves a lot to be desired. I've seen little things here and there that I want to town read Rondo for. Is it possible for you to do an ISO there to get a firmer grasp?

Right now I have the same town core as you.
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Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 3]

#3639

Post by EnderWiggin »

The question I have for Alison is:
Do you think I actually ever disturb the boat like that if Jay and I are distancing partners?

I don't usually force it between me and a partner unless it's inevitable, and between me and Jay that would hardly be inevitable.
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Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 3]

#3640

Post by Dyslexicon »

I'm not going to tinfoil Marmot anymore. He just sounds awkward when he responds to me sometimes, and that is ok.
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Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 3]

#3641

Post by EnderWiggin »

Dyslexicon wrote: Mon Jul 04, 2022 10:16 pm
EnderWiggin wrote: Mon Jul 04, 2022 10:14 pm
Dyslexicon wrote: Mon Jul 04, 2022 9:50 pm @EnderWiggin I feel like you've been very hedgy on Rondo. Why? If I didn't know better, I'd be worried that you wanted to hedge to avoid Rondo to get suspicious of you.
I'm around briefly. Things have been quite busy irl.

As for Rondo, he is aware of how I read in a way that only maybe Thunal can rival. I'm hedgy on him because it is difficult to actually find something I can 100% townread him for.

Usually this will be the case.

I did hard shield him in his first few games because I knew he'd get wagoned early if I didn't.
This answer leaves a lot to be desired. I've seen little things here and there that I want to town read Rondo for. Is it possible for you to do an ISO there to get a firmer grasp?

Right now I have the same town core as you.
I have said this before.

I will say it again.

I currently think Rondo is town.

I think that while he has the capability to fool me I don't think he'd be this consistent over days if he was actually wolf.

Not on his first wolf in forum play anyway.
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Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 3]

#3642

Post by EnderWiggin »

I'm just going to remind Alison, however, of the last mountainous we played together.

I came out on D3 with a case on Mac.

Mac was wolf.

This case was also out of no where.

I was also town.

Do you remember that?
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Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 1]

#3643

Post by Dyslexicon »

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Sun Jul 03, 2022 4:22 am
MacDougall wrote: Mon Jun 27, 2022 11:23 pm I kinda think that there is a necessary auto period here.

Like there is a line and those below it have to all die before those above it because if the mafia are all above it the game is already over and we are wasting our time and that's very unlikely.

Line

Dyslexicon
Creature
Falcon
DrWilgy

For some reason I don't want to put Fingersplints below the line. I think Dyslexicon has the most chance of being town but I can't reasonably put him above it.
Mac’s POE is 0 for 2 so far. I think this makes Dizzy and Creature among the most important slots to sort this phase. Whatever their alignments, if we can develop clearer impressions that might provide us with good insight into the mafia mindset in this game. My initial gut points to a town Creature, and I don’t think Dizzy has to be mafia. If this POE had 0-1 mafia in it, then I think we can start to build worlds surrounding “the maintenance of the status quo” as a premier mafia agenda.

I’m just thinking aloud here. I will develop this further when I can.
You are notably not including Marmot here, which Mac promised to tunnel if Falcon was town. Do you not think that is relevant?
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Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 3]

#3644

Post by EnderWiggin »

Albeit I actually had a case rather than an accusation but anyway. I only have about 40m and I have other things to do so I can't spend the time casing until about 8ish hours from now.
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Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 3]

#3645

Post by Dyslexicon »

EnderWiggin wrote: Sun Jul 03, 2022 8:23 am
Alison wrote: Sun Jul 03, 2022 12:41 am I have a kinda busy day today, so I'll be around slightly less. (Will still be around though.) Will be totally free tomorrow.

It feels like fingersplints was saved by this last minute Wilgy wagon and she is currently my top suspect.
Why wasn't I saved by that EOD wagon?
Or why wasn't Fingers saved be your wagon as well? Etc
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Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 3]

#3646

Post by EnderWiggin »

I'd laugh if Alison/Jay are mafia and I tried to towncore them D1.
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Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 3]

#3647

Post by EnderWiggin »

Nate is also super sus for the fact that he has no solid decisiveness about his reads.

He provides those lovely scalding hot lists and then is like "But I'm not sure".

I'm ngl I'm trying to remember if he did that in Quals, need to check.
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Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 1]

#3648

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

Dyslexicon wrote: Mon Jul 04, 2022 10:20 pm You are notably not including Marmot here, which Mac promised to tunnel if Falcon was town. Do you not think that is relevant?
He’s certainly not relevant to the post I was discussing. He’s not in it. Hey may or may not be relevant otherwise, but I was speaking specifically of the “auto” POE that Mac posted.
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Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 3]

#3649

Post by Dyslexicon »

@EnderWiggin Why do you read Creature town? EoD 1, why, what happened? He's whining and doing absolutely nothing. Sometimes he's defaulting to voting me. He's complaining about Mac's list while still following it. He said I was mafia siding when I was voting Wilgy, while he himself considered Wilgy suspect and ended up voting there. Like wtf. It's useless at best and just wolf at worst. I have big questions about this. That said, I have scarier fish to fry tbh
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Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 1]

#3650

Post by Dyslexicon »

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Mon Jul 04, 2022 10:25 pm
Dyslexicon wrote: Mon Jul 04, 2022 10:20 pm You are notably not including Marmot here, which Mac promised to tunnel if Falcon was town. Do you not think that is relevant?
He’s certainly not relevant to the post I was discussing. He’s not in it. Hey may or may not be relevant otherwise, but I was speaking specifically of the “auto” POE that Mac posted.
I think it's relevant if we're discussing NKA. If you just revived the PoE to discuss it for a different purpose, then it's not relevant. I'm very excited to see your NKA of the Sean kill. Haven't gotten that far yet.
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