Anniversary Game 3 - Cindy Kate Meet Up [GAME OVER - TOWN WIN]

[Millium]

Day 1 votecount

Arogame (9): Lily, Seanzie, Alison, Dya, SPF, Santy, Neon, Mac, Tigarial
Millium (5): Cham, Porscha, Belzy, Arogame, Millium
Cham (2): Rondo, Ender
Alison (1): Nanook
Porscha (1): Ilario

Okay let's humour that Arogame was slaughtered by villagers.

Millium's wagon is mathematically likely to have mafia on it too. The fact that Porscha's wagon died and Millium's didn't makes Millium >rand town and we already have Porscha and probably Belzy as mafia voting on it. Cham and Aro are dead town and Millium is self voting. I don't see why Millium self votes if his teammates are bussing. I think this all heavily points to Millium being town.

The question is... well frankly there's probably always at least one mafia between Rondo and Ender due to this. It's important to check why and how they ended on Cham, and how they responded as Arogame emerged as a town led wagon. I feel like there would have been some Porscha bussers at some point too.

has there been any reason for any of Rondo's votes, and Enders vote im pretty sure was because of Cham's read on me

[ilario]

i find the uwu poster type of players the hardest to read so go figure i have 2 left as well as a wisp who i have still yet to figure out properly how to read

Fwiw I have generally read wisp quite well albeit in limited games. I had him as mafia and tunneled it from spec in the finale. I think his play in this game has been similar to there. He was suspected early on and used aggression to pull himself out of the POE in that game and never ended up back in it. The Porscha/Millium vote logic should be indicative enough ie. how did each of them treat the wagon on the other vs. the emergent Arogame wagon.

I still think his claim has holes too ie. I don't think his explanation for why he gave two items n1 and then only one on n2 passes the pub test.

yeah i tunneled him in semis and whilst i found him towny at the start in finale it was due to reasons i realised werent great and then voted him on d3. i thought i knew i could read him but im in some weird spot this game where some of his post really ping me but then at some points hes felt towny and i also dont feel like it makes sense for him to be mafia at time? belzy has been on his ass all game for starters, though there were some points yesterday where i kinda did wonder if the belzy push was from tmi. i got an item today and im a little worried i might end up dead like santy lmao but thats probs just paranoia. aro and seven who have played with him both felt strongly on him being town too.

[MacDougall]

And everyone on Aro has flipped town so far

i kind of think we're in a millium v world and mafia wanted him to go over more than aro. I expect only 1 wolf on aro's wagon

I agree that Millium seems v but I don't think mafia particularly wanted him to go over Aro as much as they just didn't care once we solved them needing to figure out how to deal with Porscha being wagoned.

I think there's a pretty strong possibility Ender is mafia who was hedging on Porscha and ended up on Cham simply so they wouldn't be in the voters anywhere readable.

I kinda think Rondo is town because on meta he should be more of an active chaos goblin here if he was mafia. This isn't the gamestate I'd expect a wolf Rondo to become a potato in.

[ilario]

I guess that's fair, I had a hard time figuring out who to give my 4th item to, but I gave it out last night
up to them to claim it or not

yeah thats kinda why i was wondering what ur read on me was since i wasnt really expecting you to give it to me. who else were u considering?

[Millium]

i got an item today and im a little worried i might end up dead like santy lmao but thats probs just paranoia.

lmao, imagine getting the roleblock, since if Lily isn't lying, you can use both your action and my item

[MacDougall]

If Belzy is mafia Millium has 2 wolves voting them including Porscha who voted out of self pres. Level 1 he's just town.

[MacDougall]

Do you have 2 roleblocks Ilario?

[ilario]

Lily being 1 shot slank vig does make the choice she made in terms of usage a little more reasonable. Its a bit like if Porscha steps up enough to get herself out of my range she's self resolving.

maybe ensuring she got the porcha kill is somehow related to her wincon? and thats why she made up the mech stuff. i kinda can see that moreso from a w!lily

[ilario]

Do you have 2 roleblocks Ilario?

i kinda wanted to keep it secret what the power was but since u are asking. yes.

[MacDougall]

There should only be 1 KP tonight aside from mine (unless the 3p has KP). If you have 2 roleblocks we can probably mech lock this game with some good coordinated thought.

[ilario]

There should only be 1 KP tonight aside from mine (unless the 3p has KP). If you have 2 roleblocks we can probably mech lock this game with some good coordinated thought.

im all up for that but doesnt that also telegraph to wolves how to potentially work around it? but yeah im down for a plan if u have one

[Lilypetal]

If you were to be like "Mac who do you think has just been wolfy in this game" Ilario would be my top scumread by some distance. Then Neon. Ender would be my top town.

But I have this gift/curse of being able to ignore my own intuitions and evaluate through level 1 scumreads which causes me to have unstable reads until I don't.

And right now I don't have enough benchmarking to feel confident on anything so I'm still in flywheel mode. Spinning spinning spinning.

Am I solely scummy because of my treatment of santy? Or is it because I suspect we are being hoodwinked here?

I don't think my wolf range is this wide I think I've clearly played in my town range... I'm just an idiot

Neon you have just had two monster wolf games in a row where you subverted ýour perceived wolfrange and dined out on people underestimating you so you really can't make this argument if you are town.

You're scummy because of the way you handled claims, some of your porscha interactions and generally being openwolfy and lying a lot.

But why would wolf me lie like that? If I'm wolf I just claim one shot delayed tracker who got no results with conditional double vote. I don't try to red check santy or to try to play to the possibility that Porscha used her ability on you...I don't need to I'm already town read in this scenario I don't need to pull a gambit to try to get info from my failure to use my mech properly. I can just push santy off Allison I don't need to do a dumb red check to see what happens because I don't believe his claim.

I lied. I'm much more likely to do that as town here. I hoodwinked people for 2 straight games on the back of being much more open and honest than town expects a wolf to be.

so you wolfside more as town than you do as a wolf?

[Lilypetal]

@Millium @ilario @dyachei @EnderWiggin

I am presently humouring a Belzy/Neon/Lilypetal team. What says you?

as a hellbusser i could see this being my team tbh

[Millium]

I guess that's fair, I had a hard time figuring out who to give my 4th item to, but I gave it out last night
up to them to claim it or not

yeah thats kinda why i was wondering what ur read on me was since i wasnt really expecting you to give it to me. who else were u considering?

Everyone is going back and fourth, and I didn't want to give it another item to lily, or Mac
I ended up you because we were aligning pretty decently in reads, I remember u had claimed u had no more shots left
Seanzie would have been the other choice because you and Alison were mostly confident that he was just town

I decided not to since a part of me was still worried, like his reaction to you to for finding him town over not having enough experience, "when he is playing different", just screamed to me at the time

[Lilypetal]

If Belzy is town and telling the truth.

They lied about having a green check on me for several phases.

They lied about me being loverised to them even though they nearly went over and could have easily been vigged or killed by mafia.

They chose to loverise dyachei (or me if there's some mech shenanigans) when their day 1 suspicion they themselves vocalised was millium and a town lover should target a mafia suspect not a top town.

I think you just ... accept that if a player who makes these decisions is town that it's okay to lose due to their decision making. No offence to Belzy if they are town, I think we've all been there where we've made incorrect decisions in mafia but ... this stuff is egregious at every level.

If Belzy is mafia I think Ender and Rondo are probably the last 2.

If somehow Belzy is town, which is the ... feeling I cannot shake that's opening up a myriad of tinfoil possibilities. Then we are probably just losing to Ilario, dya and whoever the fuck.

ender?? i mean i can see it and hope thats the case to validate my push, but what changed your mind?

Belzy being mafia would mean that I've been a pawn in the mafia game and immediately lends suspicion to those who've been more vocally aligned to me and makes the players who've been less of a Mac ally more likely to be town. It would indicate that the mafia gameplan has been to steer me since as early as n1. Ender would be the primary suspect. Lilypetal would be second.

oh nice, that was some of my issues with ender too. why lily? im happy to go through her again when i have time, but if shes mafia then damnnnn lol she pretty good

Go back to day 1. Lily was consensus suspected by a lot of people for having a tepid entry. Came back and posted her way out.

But aside from shoot Porscha what has Lily done other than shield me (someone likely loverised to a wolf) and stop us from chopping Porscha?

Where's the town solving mindset?

it's definitely all there more than most of my town games tbh because I have put more thought and care into this game than most

i think it is very clear that I am not playing from a place of tmi if u just look

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

If you were to be like "Mac who do you think has just been wolfy in this game" Ilario would be my top scumread by some distance. Then Neon. Ender would be my top town.

But I have this gift/curse of being able to ignore my own intuitions and evaluate through level 1 scumreads which causes me to have unstable reads until I don't.

And right now I don't have enough benchmarking to feel confident on anything so I'm still in flywheel mode. Spinning spinning spinning.

Am I solely scummy because of my treatment of santy? Or is it because I suspect we are being hoodwinked here?

I don't think my wolf range is this wide I think I've clearly played in my town range... I'm just an idiot

Neon you have just had two monster wolf games in a row where you subverted ýour perceived wolfrange and dined out on people underestimating you so you really can't make this argument if you are town.

You're scummy because of the way you handled claims, some of your porscha interactions and generally being openwolfy and lying a lot.

But why would wolf me lie like that? If I'm wolf I just claim one shot delayed tracker who got no results with conditional double vote. I don't try to red check santy or to try to play to the possibility that Porscha used her ability on you...I don't need to I'm already town read in this scenario I don't need to pull a gambit to try to get info from my failure to use my mech properly. I can just push santy off Allison I don't need to do a dumb red check to see what happens because I don't believe his claim.

I lied. I'm much more likely to do that as town here. I hoodwinked people for 2 straight games on the back of being much more open and honest than town expects a wolf to be.

so you wolfside more as town than you do as a wolf?

I make mistakes more when I don't know people's rules

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

Roles*

[ilario]

Day 1 votecount

Arogame (9): Lily, Seanzie, Alison, Dya, SPF, Santy, Neon, Mac, Tigarial
Millium (5): Cham, Porscha, Belzy, Arogame, Millium
Cham (2): Rondo, Ender
Alison (1): Nanook
Porscha (1): Ilario

Okay let's humour that Arogame was slaughtered by villagers.

Millium's wagon is mathematically likely to have mafia on it too. The fact that Porscha's wagon died and Millium's didn't makes Millium >rand town and we already have Porscha and probably Belzy as mafia voting on it. Cham and Aro are dead town and Millium is self voting. I don't see why Millium self votes if his teammates are bussing. I think this all heavily points to Millium being town.

The question is... well frankly there's probably always at least one mafia between Rondo and Ender due to this. It's important to check why and how they ended on Cham, and how they responded as Arogame emerged as a town led wagon. I feel like there would have been some Porscha bussers at some point too.

yeah i think they would have come later on and left once they saw the aro or wisp wagon pop up.

millum can be a wolf in the world where he just was frustrated and wanted to give up and then asked his teammates to just bus him. but then porcha and belzy werent really playing like players who were aiming to go deep and belzy was pushing millum before the selfvote i think.

[MacDougall]

There is one thing I'm not exactly... happy with.

I think there is a strong chance Belzy really did target me. In their self defense them targeting me has been something they've belaboured to a degree where it feels like caught for bad reasons.

I believe they aren't lying about targeting me n1.

This doesn't mean I think they are town. However it does mean there is some mechanical thing that prevented Tilgarial's bus drive to fail that is yet to become very clear.

[MacDougall]

There should only be 1 KP tonight aside from mine (unless the 3p has KP). If you have 2 roleblocks we can probably mech lock this game with some good coordinated thought.

im all up for that but doesnt that also telegraph to wolves how to potentially work around it? but yeah im down for a plan if u have one

It requires a bit of faith in a towncore and working hard on making one that feels correct.

[ilario]

And everyone on Aro has flipped town so far

i kind of think we're in a millium v world and mafia wanted him to go over more than aro. I expect only 1 wolf on aro's wagon

I agree that Millium seems v but I don't think mafia particularly wanted him to go over Aro as much as they just didn't care once we solved them needing to figure out how to deal with Porscha being wagoned.

I think there's a pretty strong possibility Ender is mafia who was hedging on Porscha and ended up on Cham simply so they wouldn't be in the voters anywhere readable.

I kinda think Rondo is town because on meta he should be more of an active chaos goblin here if he was mafia. This isn't the gamestate I'd expect a wolf Rondo to become a potato in.

agree with the ender stuff. it also allows him to set up to push a villa in the future. if ender is mafia then all 3 wolves kinda tmi'd wisp d1 LOL or they have legendary spew

[Millium]

If you were to be like "Mac who do you think has just been wolfy in this game" Ilario would be my top scumread by some distance. Then Neon. Ender would be my top town.

But I have this gift/curse of being able to ignore my own intuitions and evaluate through level 1 scumreads which causes me to have unstable reads until I don't.

And right now I don't have enough benchmarking to feel confident on anything so I'm still in flywheel mode. Spinning spinning spinning.

Am I solely scummy because of my treatment of santy? Or is it because I suspect we are being hoodwinked here?

I don't think my wolf range is this wide I think I've clearly played in my town range... I'm just an idiot

Neon you have just had two monster wolf games in a row where you subverted ýour perceived wolfrange and dined out on people underestimating you so you really can't make this argument if you are town.

You're scummy because of the way you handled claims, some of your porscha interactions and generally being openwolfy and lying a lot.

But why would wolf me lie like that? If I'm wolf I just claim one shot delayed tracker who got no results with conditional double vote. I don't try to red check santy or to try to play to the possibility that Porscha used her ability on you...I don't need to I'm already town read in this scenario I don't need to pull a gambit to try to get info from my failure to use my mech properly. I can just push santy off Allison I don't need to do a dumb red check to see what happens because I don't believe his claim.

I lied. I'm much more likely to do that as town here. I hoodwinked people for 2 straight games on the back of being much more open and honest than town expects a wolf to be.

except u took back the lie, but still kept pushing that their couldn't be two trackers, even though ignoring the random roles of this game, your roles were explicitly different
then it was ohh his role is too simple, which again I had explained that after we knew tilg was a town busdriver, that would be a wild fake claim to say, "tilg swapped Mac and Dya", because there would be so many chances there to get caught in a lie.

[ilario]

I guess that's fair, I had a hard time figuring out who to give my 4th item to, but I gave it out last night
up to them to claim it or not

yeah thats kinda why i was wondering what ur read on me was since i wasnt really expecting you to give it to me. who else were u considering?

Everyone is going back and fourth, and I didn't want to give it another item to lily, or Mac
I ended up you because we were aligning pretty decently in reads, I remember u had claimed u had no more shots left
Seanzie would have been the other choice because you and Alison were mostly confident that he was just town

I decided not to since a part of me was still worried, like his reaction to you to for finding him town over not having enough experience, "when he is playing different", just screamed to me at the time

which reads did we align on? i kinda fkd up towards the end of the day if ur villa since i pushed u and seven at eod to be resolved

[Lilypetal]

I need literally anyone who's going to vote me to go ahead and case me and tell me why I do anything I've done this entire game as wolf and not as a wrong shitty stupid ass town

Hard to tell the difference sometimes. It's also hard for me to see you as anything but a wolf when your plan yesterday was to lie about santy(flipped villager btw) the entire day and today you came in pushing me(another villager btw)

Neon makes a mistake. Neon is scum

Santy makes a mistake and buries town Alison. Lily treats Santy like none of that happened

So what's different?

Again if you iso me you could see my flip flop on santy. I pushed him with imo bad reasoning to get him to get mad to see if he would towntell and then I knew he was town and stopped voting him

Like omg did u even read my iso or just pick posts out about porscha lol

[ilario]

There should only be 1 KP tonight aside from mine (unless the 3p has KP). If you have 2 roleblocks we can probably mech lock this game with some good coordinated thought.

im all up for that but doesnt that also telegraph to wolves how to potentially work around it? but yeah im down for a plan if u have one

It requires a bit of faith in a towncore and working hard on making one that feels correct.

theres one potential hole with the plan but i dont wanna say it incase wolves dont know. but yeah u have my faith

[ilario]

anyways gt brb

[MacDougall]

Bruhhh neon and lily and dya and ilario and millium are all town?

[Millium]

whats the meta on Rondo, when exactly does he pop off?
like there are two worlds here, maybe 3

1. He is just trolling town, because he doesn't feel like he has any game plan whatsoever, or teammates
2. He is wolf, that hasn't tried to do anything, which if not for meta, I would normally just lynch this (this slot simply can not go into lylo)
3. He is a lost wolf that doesn't know his teammates?

[Millium]

I need literally anyone who's going to vote me to go ahead and case me and tell me why I do anything I've done this entire game as wolf and not as a wrong shitty stupid ass town

Hard to tell the difference sometimes. It's also hard for me to see you as anything but a wolf when your plan yesterday was to lie about santy(flipped villager btw) the entire day and today you came in pushing me(another villager btw)

Neon makes a mistake. Neon is scum

Santy makes a mistake and buries town Alison. Lily treats Santy like none of that happened

So what's different?

Again if you iso me you could see my flip flop on santy. I pushed him with imo bad reasoning to get him to get mad to see if he would towntell and then I knew he was town and stopped voting him

Like omg did u even read my iso or just pick posts out about porscha lol

honestly, atp, I dont want to go through a lot of isos' because they are so long.
I just dont think its fair to assume someone will go through ur iso, and explicitly pick out this progression

[MacDougall]

I think there is a >0 chance the mafia have access to a role that is fudging the alignments of the flips. Aro and Alison were damn near lolcatting I was literally bewildered by both flips to a degree I am not used to.

[MacDougall]

whats the meta on Rondo, when exactly does he pop off?
like there are two worlds here, maybe 3

1. He is just trolling town, because he doesn't feel like he has any game plan whatsoever, or teammates
2. He is wolf, that hasn't tried to do anything, which if not for meta, I would normally just lynch this (this slot simply can not go into lylo)
3. He is a lost wolf that doesn't know his teammates?

He is hard to solve but ...

He is in his town meta.

He is aware of how he is perceived enough to gambit getting townread for slanking but...

He hasn't felt scummy at all when he has bothered to solve either.

[Lilypetal]

I think it's pretty clear from catch up that Ilario is a wolf and mac is town, if anyone is curious. Ilario kinda reminds me of the evil advisor to the king that leads the king astray

I don't think Ilario has any real thoughts, he just pivots and changes reads like a chameleon. would recommend rereading the last 4-5 pages and looking at ilario/mac to get your own opinion

I think townlock is probably Mac/Millium/Neon

Mac: he town for [whole game]

Millium: talked abt it before but last eod was p obviously v/v wagons and Millium's play has generally been super uninformed. His play today is townlockable imo probably wouldn't reconsider it

Neon: I have pushed her enough today to be confident that she's most likely town. Still a bit eh but oh well. I think she's genuine about her wolfsiding more as town lol

belzy outed scum for sure

[Millium]

I think there is a >0 chance the mafia have access to a role that is fudging the alignments of the flips. Aro and Alison were damn near lolcatting I was literally bewildered by both flips to a degree I am not used to.

pretty sure the OP explicitly said there were no bastard elements, of which I would consider that highly bastard

[Lilypetal]

@MacDougall You were most definitely left alive because

1) you're gonna get rbed and killed

2) you're loverized

[Lilypetal]

unsure which is real but yeah

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

I need literally anyone who's going to vote me to go ahead and case me and tell me why I do anything I've done this entire game as wolf and not as a wrong shitty stupid ass town

Hard to tell the difference sometimes. It's also hard for me to see you as anything but a wolf when your plan yesterday was to lie about santy(flipped villager btw) the entire day and today you came in pushing me(another villager btw)

Neon makes a mistake. Neon is scum

Santy makes a mistake and buries town Alison. Lily treats Santy like none of that happened

So what's different?

Again if you iso me you could see my flip flop on santy. I pushed him with imo bad reasoning to get him to get mad to see if he would towntell and then I knew he was town and stopped voting him

Like omg did u even read my iso or just pick posts out about porscha lol

No your right you know I haven't read every single post this game and try harded just to fuck everything up fair point.

[Lilypetal]

i do not care if u theorize im 3p because honestly that probably means wolves keep me alive and I get to play more but I am not a wolf here. I have been playing towards a town wincon for the entire game and it's clear by my play

[Lilypetal]

I need literally anyone who's going to vote me to go ahead and case me and tell me why I do anything I've done this entire game as wolf and not as a wrong shitty stupid ass town

Hard to tell the difference sometimes. It's also hard for me to see you as anything but a wolf when your plan yesterday was to lie about santy(flipped villager btw) the entire day and today you came in pushing me(another villager btw)

Neon makes a mistake. Neon is scum

Santy makes a mistake and buries town Alison. Lily treats Santy like none of that happened

So what's different?

Again if you iso me you could see my flip flop on santy. I pushed him with imo bad reasoning to get him to get mad to see if he would towntell and then I knew he was town and stopped voting him

Like omg did u even read my iso or just pick posts out about porscha lol

No your right you know I haven't read every single post this game and try harded just to fuck everything up fair point.

I just think that if you're going to say something like that you should fact check it first. I kinda figure as a wolf you would've done that though

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

I do not think that's clear by your play but

Fuck it we need a town core

/unvote

[ilario]

I think it's pretty clear from catch up that Ilario is a wolf and mac is town, if anyone is curious. Ilario kinda reminds me of the evil advisor to the king that leads the king astray

I don't think Ilario has any real thoughts, he just pivots and changes reads like a chameleon. would recommend rereading the last 4-5 pages and looking at ilario/mac to get your own opinion

I think townlock is probably Mac/Millium/Neon

Mac: he town for [whole game]

Millium: talked abt it before but last eod was p obviously v/v wagons and Millium's play has generally been super uninformed. His play today is townlockable imo probably wouldn't reconsider it

Neon: I have pushed her enough today to be confident that she's most likely town. Still a bit eh but oh well. I think she's genuine about her wolfsiding more as town lol

belzy outed scum for sure

LOL

but im not leading him at all. im just asking his thoughts. i already gave my own thoughts, the entire reason mac has been tinfoiling me this game is because of my thoughts. which game are you reading?

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

Oh cool ilario is on themself

/vote Ilario

[Millium]

i do not care if u theorize im 3p because honestly that probably means wolves keep me alive and I get to play more but I am not a wolf here. I have been playing towards a town wincon for the entire game and it's clear by my play

ya but town looks really strong here, so I suspect a 3p doesn't win with us
/shrug

[dyachei]

mac
ilario
millium

towncore?

[ilario]

Oh cool ilario is on themself

/vote Ilario

yeah whatever u should just die lol, i voted because it doesnt matter where my vote is since belzy was always dying today. if this is the best u can do to solve then im just tunneling u no matter what if i live to tomorrow

[ilario]

i do not care if u theorize im 3p because honestly that probably means wolves keep me alive and I get to play more but I am not a wolf here. I have been playing towards a town wincon for the entire game and it's clear by my play

u quite clearly care because ur read on me is entirely due to ur massive entitlement that im not taking u as blindly lock villa on account of ur incredibly suboptimal play on d2 around mech

[Millium]

wolf!illario
literally cant make an wolfy roleblock since they outted their role, and betzy being a wolf doesn't randomly out their role in the neighbor chat, if they want a chance of keeping them alive, so that Illario could roleblock Mac

they've roleblocked Neon, Rondo, Ender, all pretty decent roleblocks at the time

[Lilypetal]

To be clear belzy always dies today and then if I'm alive tomorrow I will sort Ilario out but I think the most likely world is w!Ilario

this game is not almost being swept by the Slank Kingdom of nanook and rondo lmao

[ilario]

kill neon. they dont solve anything. 160 pages and no solving. one lame pathetic attempt omgus on lily to look busy, the rest is just voting people for asinine nonsense

[dyachei]

ilario can you make an ordered read list for me?

[Lilypetal]

i do not care if u theorize im 3p because honestly that probably means wolves keep me alive and I get to play more but I am not a wolf here. I have been playing towards a town wincon for the entire game and it's clear by my play

u quite clearly care because ur read on me is entirely due to ur massive entitlement that im not taking u as blindly lock villa on account of ur incredibly suboptimal play on d2 around mech

no lol it has more to do with how you don't look like a villager working with Mac like I said. my day 2 play was not bad at all, i mean maybe bad for you because i killed your partner and tanked the nk but like not bad for town