Lawyers, Guns and Money- [TOWN WINS!]

[Dennis]

@Dennis who are you looking at today? Top 3 guesses for baddies?

Well definitely Lucy for reasons stated in D2. I think I was tunneling without even realizing because now I don't really have strong reads on anyone else. I think I need more to work with but Seanzie and SVS both had that argument in D1 which is still bothering me. Someone misunderstood someone, somewhere, and it escalated EXTREMELY rapidly. I think that might've been manufactured and one of them could be a wolf so I'm gonna pay attention to their upcoming posts.

[Dennis]

Neon is still jack shepherd on the poll, FYI everyone

Thank you for catching that. It has been fixed.

Jack's ISO page is also still up on the first page instead of Neon's

[Golden]

OK, I guess I need to get off my arse and start world building. 3/13 are bad. The ratio is getting up there.

It's helpful for me to process people in groups. Group 1 in this post.

Sean/Lucy - the counterwagons

I still read these people as more townie than not.

With Sean, I think his constant tying the vote was a relatively decent look. Perhaps not the likeliest of tactics to ensure we caught the wolf if that was w/t, but definitely a good tactic to get info about who would break the tie each time and in which direction, which is what I had the vibes Sean was doing.

Sean gets a lot of people who give him wolf vibes for not explaining everything he does. That's bullsuit. The way I win when I'm wolf is to always have a viable explanation for everything I do. I don't need to plan for that as town because I don't care whether people think I'm bad or not. Sean's unwillingness to explain himself looks good to me, and every action he takes I feel a viable townie mindset that reminds me of the way I might well play the situation - I also like being a withholdy town, no need to explain everything I'm thinking or doing.

Lucy, I do tend to think most of the things I town vibe her for are likely more NAI. I think what I've probably been hung up on with Lucy is that a lot of the suspicion thrown her way feels more 'autistic' than 'wolfy' to me, but then I think I've been a little hasty in assigning townieness to some of that stuff too. I'm going to try to be a little less confirmation biasy there.

I think my take on Lucy is that she is solveable with time and I think there's benefit to giving her space to play as town and see where it gets us. But that's just me.

[Dennis]

Yay no death! Good job Doc

Dennis Dennis is asking the right questions, at first I thought he was maybe being coached, but I don't anymore. Leaning more town than not

This caught my eye when I was going back, what is it that changed your mind about me being coached?

Mainly when I am bad, and have a nub on my team and they ask basic questions in chat, I tell them to ask in the thread, acting naive looks civvie. If you were in chat with any OG they would have told you the same. So there was that.

Then, not a big thing, but just one of those things that make you go hmmm, that day zero back and forth you had with your Mom felt kinda, not scripty, but not entirely spontaneous either. But that would require both of you to be bad, and I’m pretty positive she isn’t, and you feel pretty sincere to me, too.

That’s how I play. I see a thing that catches my eye, and watch. Not quite understanding some of the explanations you got, I just got the sense you didn’t have BTSC partners. Which in this game means civvie. No masons here.

Wouldn't that make me look bad then, seeing how many basic questions I've asked? Also what makes you certain Kate is good?

[Kate]

Yay no death! Good job Doc

Dennis Dennis is asking the right questions, at first I thought he was maybe being coached, but I don't anymore. Leaning more town than not

This caught my eye when I was going back, what is it that changed your mind about me being coached?

Mainly when I am bad, and have a nub on my team and they ask basic questions in chat, I tell them to ask in the thread, acting naive looks civvie. If you were in chat with any OG they would have told you the same. So there was that.

Then, not a big thing, but just one of those things that make you go hmmm, that day zero back and forth you had with your Mom felt kinda, not scripty, but not entirely spontaneous either. But that would require both of you to be bad, and I’m pretty positive she isn’t, and you feel pretty sincere to me, too.

That’s how I play. I see a thing that catches my eye, and watch. Not quite understanding some of the explanations you got, I just got the sense you didn’t have BTSC partners. Which in this game means civvie. No masons here.

I would never perform by script

[robyn]

and i haven’t even gotten into it with scotty and svs which i certainly will before eod

Whatever happened to this?

i didn't threadcamp eod

[robyn]

1) doc was obviously on dennis
2) i'm gonna play more tomorrow cause i'm still frustrated we have had v/v wagons for 2 cycles

[Golden]

Some more groups

SVS/Kate - Vocal old friends

SVS is town. OK, SVS can fool the hell out of me and maybe she isn't town, but if I was forced to bet my life on someone being town I'd pick SVS at the moment. SVS, if you're bad, I will not ever be able to bet my life on your alignment.
Kate is probably town. Less certain there though. I ordinarily vibe more with Kate, in terms of having a similar view of the game, than I am here.

I would likely push hard to lynch someone else in alternative to either SVS or Kate today.

Soneji/neon Recent appearances

I feel I need to pay attention to these two today. I have a 'soneji could be bad' vibe but it's not based on much. I have an 'I like neon's entry' vibe but that's not based on much either. I feel like either of these people could be bad with anyone except maybe the soneji/sean pairing.

Roxy/mata/splints/bea - less vocal old friends

To be honest, any of this group could be bad, and if my town leans are right chances are there is at least one baddie here. All of them can happily sit within my PoE for now. However, I've ordered them from most likely to be town to least likely to be town based purely on what they've shown in the thread so far.

I like what I've seen from Roxy, bar her 'I'm catching up on the thread' post which is a statement that I think wolfleans on average (but people from both sides say it). I like her healthy eye on me, and I've liked her reads.

Mata tends to be quiet and perceptive. She's definitely on the quieter side here, even for her, although I do wonder if noise is relative to the post count. We used to have quieter games full stop.

I townread fingersplints from day one last game. She's made no real impression on me here. Now, that might be because I was wolf last game (although I was trying to approach day one reads from the perspective of 'if I was town', but I can't be sure that's not flawed). Or maybe there's a gut thing there.

Bea just simply hasn't had the time to contribute enough to start with a read yet.

[Golden]

1) doc was obviously on dennis
2) i'm gonna play more tomorrow cause i'm still frustrated we have had v/v wagons for 2 cycles

Why is that so obvious?

[Dennis]

1) doc was obviously on dennis
2) i'm gonna play more tomorrow cause i'm still frustrated we have had v/v wagons for 2 cycles

I'm inclined to agree with 1.

Sorry I think that's partially my bad. I got a wee bit frustrated and that probably came off aggressive when I couldn't understand you but it's just different ways of thinking so, sorry.

[Dennis]

1) doc was obviously on dennis
2) i'm gonna play more tomorrow cause i'm still frustrated we have had v/v wagons for 2 cycles

Why is that so obvious?

Everyone who has said something about me minus Scotty has said civ. Also it would've made Lucy look really bad after we had our fight, which assuming Lucy is civ would make it obvious to her.

[Dennis]

One counter is that mafia is taking mercy on the noob still but I think my pass has run out.

[S~V~S]

@Dennis

I already partially answered this. You didn’t always get the answers. That didn’t read like you had BTS partners to me. Also if your faking naivety, you wouldn’t have kept asking questions for fear of looking TOO naive.

I played a long time, and catching BTS slips is kinda my thing. I don’t think you have BTS.

And I played with your mom for many years, we ran a site together for a time, we hosted together, we were pretty close irl. When we play together, one of the first things i do is sort her, and I bet she does the same.

I am not seeing anything to make me think she’s bad. She’s more serious and her fun posts feel more forced. Not seeing that.

Now really bbl

[Kate]

Golden there is less of a vibe with us this game because you snowed the hell out of me last game. That is still sticking in the back of my head a little to not blindly trust, even though I want to.

[Golden]

1) doc was obviously on dennis
2) i'm gonna play more tomorrow cause i'm still frustrated we have had v/v wagons for 2 cycles

Why is that so obvious?

Everyone who has said something about me minus Scotty has said civ. Also it would've made Lucy look really bad after we had our fight, which assuming Lucy is civ would make it obvious to her.

I will be very surprised if the kill target was not me.

[Golden]

Golden there is less of a vibe with us this game because you snowed the hell out of me last game. That is still sticking in the back of my head a little to not blindly trust, even though I want to.

We are also reading things more differently than we usually do. But that's OK, like I said, I would still defend the hell out of you if anyone came to elim you today.

[Kate]

@Dennis

I already partially answered this. You didn’t always get the answers. That didn’t read like you had BTS partners to me. Also if your faking naivety, you wouldn’t have kept asking questions for fear of looking TOO naive.

I played a long time, and catching BTS slips is kinda my thing. I don’t think you have BTS.

And I played with your mom for many years, we ran a site together for a time, we hosted together, we were pretty close irl. When we play together, one of the first things i do is sort her, and I bet she does the same.

I am not seeing anything to make me think she’s bad. She’s more serious and her fun posts feel more forced. Not seeing that.

Now really bbl

This reminds me of Lucy's "slip" or not slip when she said not to lynch scotty on a false dichotomy or something like that. No one responded to me and I failed to go back to it, partially because I was thinking if lucy and scotty were 2 wolves that Sabi was the 3rd.

[Golden]

Lastly, three people I can't categorise and that I have to put by themselves.

Dennis

Dennis oozes townieness. Dennis is everything a first time townie should be. I'm mighty impressed by Dennis if this is his first town game. If this is his first wolf game, I'll be even more mightily impressed. But also not surprised. Right now I'm filing Dennis in a category of 'reading him the way I'd read Kate' in terms of brain processing and I'm not sure if that's entirely fair but I get similar energy. My read of Dennis is definitely affected by my experience with Kate, in any event.

Scotty

I badly want scotty to be town, and there's a decent chance I'm just paranoid. I'm just sticking him in a category of his own because I'm finding it very difficult to find the centre around which to trust him.

Falcon

Falcon has given me plenty of content to actually get a decent read, and I can't get one at all. Others giving me meta takes on Falcon would be helpful.

[Kate]

Golden there is less of a vibe with us this game because you snowed the hell out of me last game. That is still sticking in the back of my head a little to not blindly trust, even though I want to.

We are also reading things more differently than we usually do. But that's OK, like I said, I would still defend the hell out of you if anyone came to elim you today.

I'm civleaning you for sure, I'd list you 3rd after Dennis and svs. But I know, new metas and all...

[Dennis]

@Dennis

I already partially answered this. You didn’t always get the answers. That didn’t read like you had BTS partners to me. Also if your faking naivety, you wouldn’t have kept asking questions for fear of looking TOO naive.

I played a long time, and catching BTS slips is kinda my thing. I don’t think you have BTS.

And I played with your mom for many years, we ran a site together for a time, we hosted together, we were pretty close irl. When we play together, one of the first things i do is sort her, and I bet she does the same.

I am not seeing anything to make me think she’s bad. She’s more serious and her fun posts feel more forced. Not seeing that.

Now really bbl

So you were looking for BTS, and if I had that then by proxy I would be mafia. I get it now, thank you.

[Golden]

@Dennis

I already partially answered this. You didn’t always get the answers. That didn’t read like you had BTS partners to me. Also if your faking naivety, you wouldn’t have kept asking questions for fear of looking TOO naive.

I played a long time, and catching BTS slips is kinda my thing. I don’t think you have BTS.

And I played with your mom for many years, we ran a site together for a time, we hosted together, we were pretty close irl. When we play together, one of the first things i do is sort her, and I bet she does the same.

I am not seeing anything to make me think she’s bad. She’s more serious and her fun posts feel more forced. Not seeing that.

Now really bbl

This reminds me of Lucy's "slip" or not slip when she said not to lynch scotty on a false dichotomy or something like that. No one responded to me and I failed to go back to it, partially because I was thinking if lucy and scotty were 2 wolves that Sabi was the 3rd.

It was sabi who said not to do that. And it was one of the things I didn't like about their exit, because just because I was saying "I think at least one of sabi/scotty is a wolf", does not mean I was setting up a dichotomy. I was setting up a theory of the game. But perhaps sabi, as something of a self-confessed tunneler, sees the game through the lens of others setting up to tunnel. I did actually think that was a mindset slip, it was part of why I kept my vote firmly there.

[Golden]

Where does that list of reads take me?

It takes me to 'I really think it's time I focus on the roxy/mata/splints/bea group', given they represent half of the people I don't have a proper good townread on yet and they are people I should theoretically be able to get a grip on.

[Golden]

@Kate how are you vibing with scotty?

[Kate]

I'm fine with dying, I really am busy with work and real life stuff atm so I can't and don't have the energy to fight for my life.

I request yall to kill Golden and Seanzie next when I do die. Don't kill scotty over some diachomy that doesn't exist.

Anyway have fun the rest of the phase. Have to get back to work.

Why would we kill scotty after you die based on a dichotomy if you were anything but Mafia??

I read your iso and there is little to even comment on.

I trust the people voting here. Therefore, [VOTE: Sabi] aubergine

Except seanzie. Still unsure in him.

@Golden you're right, it was Sabi.

[Golden]

1) doc was obviously on dennis
2) i'm gonna play more tomorrow cause i'm still frustrated we have had v/v wagons for 2 cycles

Why is that so obvious?

Everyone who has said something about me minus Scotty has said civ. Also it would've made Lucy look really bad after we had our fight, which assuming Lucy is civ would make it obvious to her.

I will be very surprised if the kill target was not me.

By the way, my point in saying this is not 'the kill target was me'.

It's that self-perceiving that you were at risk and that the doc saved you is normal.

But I don't think the answer is obvious. Could be you, could be me, could be someone else. The doc might have saved themselves for all we know.

[Kate]

Where does that list of reads take me?

It takes me to 'I really think it's time I focus on the roxy/mata/splints/bea group', given they represent half of the people I don't have a proper good townread on yet and they are people I should theoretically be able to get a grip on.

This was my EXACT thought when I saw no death. How likely do you think it would be that one of them missed the night kill PM.

[Golden]

Where does that list of reads take me?

It takes me to 'I really think it's time I focus on the roxy/mata/splints/bea group', given they represent half of the people I don't have a proper good townread on yet and they are people I should theoretically be able to get a grip on.

This was my EXACT thought when I saw no death. How likely do you think it would be that one of them missed the night kill PM.

With a team of three, I still think it more likely the doc saved than that the kill was missed. I guess there's a non-zero chance, but of the four the only one I think is actually inactive is bea. I think all of roxy, mata and splints would likely have managed to get a PM off, or post once in a wolfchat.

[Kate]

@Kate how are you vibing with scotty?

I've only played once with scotty before this game, I immediately thought he was bad until he clearly became supatown. This game, I didn't think he was bad until Sabi made that remark, which made me doubt him but now we know that statement meant nothing because Sabi was civ. Scotty will get a read though from me this day period. Lucy certainly thinks he's bad. Something to think about for sure.

[Dennis]

Where does that list of reads take me?

It takes me to 'I really think it's time I focus on the roxy/mata/splints/bea group', given they represent half of the people I don't have a proper good townread on yet and they are people I should theoretically be able to get a grip on.

This was my EXACT thought when I saw no death. How likely do you think it would be that one of them missed the night kill PM.

But can't any mafia member submit a kill? I don't think it's a good assumption that all 3 mafia were in that group of 4 and none of them could've logged on during night phase to kill.

[Kate]

Isn't there only 3 mafia?

[Dennis]

3/13 are bad.

I think these numbers are off and its 3/11.

[Dennis]

Isn't there only 3 mafia?

I meant the group of 4 people in Golden's OG inactives.

[Golden]

@Kate how are you vibing with scotty?

I've only played once with scotty before this game, I immediately thought he was bad until he clearly became supatown. This game, I didn't think he was bad until Sabi made that remark, which made me doubt him but now we know that statement meant nothing because Sabi was civ. Scotty will get a read though from me this day period. Lucy certainly thinks he's bad. Something to think about for sure.

I know this is my third mafia career, but it's so weird for me that you and scotty are carefully segmented into the first and the second until this point.

[Golden]

3/13 are bad.

I think these numbers are off and its 3/11.

I mean, I wish I could discount two people for absolute sure. But excluding my town reads, I currently am leaning towards 3/8 (I have 8 in my PoE atm)

[Dennis]

3/13 are bad.

I think these numbers are off and its 3/11.

I mean, I wish I could discount two people for absolute sure. But excluding my town reads, I currently am leaning towards 3/8 (I have 8 in my PoE atm)

Uh oh a misunderstanding. I meant literally, 3 town have died and 0 mafia. 17 people - 3 mafia - 3 dead civ = 11 remaining people, 3 of which are mafia.

[Kate]

Yes, there are 3. I double checked, one for each of the words in the game's title.

I just reread the roles and no one is specified as having the kill so I would assume any of them could send it in.

@Dennis

[Golden]

Here's that rainbow list that no one asked for. Players are listed alphabetically in tiers.

Town

S~V~S
Dennis

Light Town

falcon45ca
Kate
Sabiplz
Scotty

Null or No Content

bea
DrWilgy
fingersplints
jack shepherd
lucy
Roxy
Seanzie
Soneji

Mafia Lean

Golden
Matahari



And to include a recap on players I haven't talked about yet that I have now sorted into tiers:

falcon45ca: I also don't really trust Golden, albeit might be for different reasons. His vibes don't strike me as hitting the notes of his scum game.

Scotty: Has been active and prodding, and also mostly harmless. I think of the townleans I have, his is the least strongest, but GTH, I do think he's town, and I have seen enough content from him to slot him here for now.

Matahari: Some of her thoughts that she posted in #529 lack direction. That is fine. But I get the feeling that she is pushing herself to talk about players when she doesn't have anything specific to say about them. Soneji in particular.

I just did an iso of matahari.

I have to say that a mata/falcon/soneji team would check out based on her posts alone. And I think this post from marmot about mata is actually pretty good.

[Dennis]

3/13 are bad.

I think these numbers are off and its 3/11.

I mean, I wish I could discount two people for absolute sure. But excluding my town reads, I currently am leaning towards 3/8 (I have 8 in my PoE atm)

Uh oh a misunderstanding. I meant literally, 3 town have died and 0 mafia. 17 people - 3 mafia - 3 dead civ = 11 remaining people, 3 of which are mafia.

Wait I just had 4 strokes and realized how off this is. 3/11 is the ratio not the remaining mafia

[Kate]

Isn't there only 3 mafia?

I meant the group of 4 people in Golden's OG inactives.

Oh.

[Golden]

3/13 are bad.

I think these numbers are off and its 3/11.

I mean, I wish I could discount two people for absolute sure. But excluding my town reads, I currently am leaning towards 3/8 (I have 8 in my PoE atm)

Uh oh a misunderstanding. I meant literally, 3 town have died and 0 mafia. 17 people - 3 mafia - 3 dead civ = 11 remaining people, 3 of which are mafia.

You just counted the mafia twice, which is why we have different numbers.

It's 3/14 (ie 3 out of the 14 people on the poll), but I don't feel like I need to get a read on myself.

[Dennis]

Yes, there are 3. I double checked, one for each of the words in the game's title.

I just reread the roles and no one is specified as having the kill so I would assume any of them could send it in.

@Dennis

That was my point. The way you worded a post made it seem like you thought they missed a kill, and since there's 3 mafia I doubt all 3 couldn't make it on.

[Dennis]

3/13 are bad.

I think these numbers are off and its 3/11.

I mean, I wish I could discount two people for absolute sure. But excluding my town reads, I currently am leaning towards 3/8 (I have 8 in my PoE atm)

Uh oh a misunderstanding. I meant literally, 3 town have died and 0 mafia. 17 people - 3 mafia - 3 dead civ = 11 remaining people, 3 of which are mafia.

You just counted the mafia twice, which is why we have different numbers.

It's 3/14 (ie 3 out of the 14 people on the poll), but I don't feel like I need to get a read on myself.

Yeah I had a silly little moment there sorry. I thought you were talking about the ratio and then it got all sorts of funky up in my brain.

[Golden]

I could vote soneji independent of my sabi read.

Why?

Approach to Seanzie feels like someone who understands day one more through wolfchat than thread to me

I note that I also still feel a little urky lurky about this from soneji

@Soneji noting your later entry to the game, what was your philosophy on entering a thread that was well underway?

[Golden]

Reading falcon ISO. He’s asking lots of questions, so could be some good genuine solving. I think he’s ok for now

What made you pick falcons iso? The letter F?

[Golden]

I'mma unvote in a minute if nothing changes

Uhh keep in mind a tie is a no elim

So I kind of like here that Seanzie didn’t want the tie, but then the second post. I’m making assumptions based on the final vote, but it would have seemed to be tied here wilgy 5 - Sean 5. Wouldn’t his “unvote” make him be eliminated? I’m all for the “info is better than no info” (it’s why I hate the sleep option) but if you are town wouldn’t it be better (in your opinion) for anyone to be eliminated other than you who you know is town? The suspicious part of me is wondering about Seanzie’s motive for this

What does the suspicious part of you think Seanzie's motive was?

[Golden]

One interesting thing in splints iso is that they ask who they should iso next, SVS offers sabi as a possibility for a fresh perspective, and splints doesn't do it.

I think SVS's choice of sabi was actually a very strong one, and her logic sound, and town splints perspective on sabi would have been valuable (and was urgent in the sense that it's too late now).

I dunno whether I think this is AI or just splints not having the time to follow through. Have to mull on that.

[Seanzie]

So I think it’s time to start honing in on a towncore. It’s chop a wolf or bust today.

I am unfortunately entering a rough patch in my RL and can’t do the type of analysis I want to. I mean, I can, but I need to force myself to curtail my participation for a bit here so I don’t lose my job.

Is it? Is it "chop wolf or bust" today?

[Golden]

@Seanzie, what do you think of my thoughts so far today. Do you think I'm looking in the right directions, generally speaking?

[Golden]

[VOTE: Matahari] aubergine

Let's start down this road and see what comes.

[S~V~S]

1) doc was obviously on dennis
2) i'm gonna play more tomorrow cause i'm still frustrated we have had v/v wagons for 2 cycles

Why is that so obvious?

Everyone who has said something about me minus Scotty has said civ. Also it would've made Lucy look really bad after we had our fight, which assuming Lucy is civ would make it obvious to her.

I will be very surprised if the kill target was not me.

Not if Lucy had anything to do with it. And I still think she did. Her vote yestetday and wanting to eliminate a low poster.

Gun to head, my call for bad team is Lucy, Soneji and one of Splints or Mata, maybe Neon.

I think Bea would have been replaced already if she were bad, and Rox has a certain tone when she’s bad, especially if someone has spoken nastily to her. Last night after Lucy called her “Fucking Roxy”, she responded pretty calmly to it. It’s a long time since we’ve played together and I could be 100% wrong since this is a tone read. But that sharp element she has when bad is missing.