Secret Playerlist - ENDGAME

[nutella]

like im starting to see falcon could be town with some of his posts but the firmness with which you have been fighting this wagon is incomprehensible

I had looked at that as well, but Sean has been playing with me a bit lately, and he's getting more familiar with my tone.

the bewildering thing though is he kept saying like he hadn't actually found you town particularly and more just wanted to give you time to show if you are town but that uncertainty didn't show in his responses to votes on you

[nutella]

[VOTE: jackofhearts2005] aubergine

kung pow penis

[falcon45ca]

like im starting to see falcon could be town with some of his posts but the firmness with which you have been fighting this wagon is incomprehensible

I had looked at that as well, but Sean has been playing with me a bit lately, and he's getting more familiar with my tone.

the bewildering thing though is he kept saying like he hadn't actually found you town particularly and more just wanted to give you time to show if you are town but that uncertainty didn't show in his responses to votes on you

What do you think his wolf motivation would be? Given the sus on my slot from more than 1 player, and Sean's defense of my slot, he'd just be setting himself up for TMI accusations after I flip green



I think he'd be more inclined to show reluctance, but find a way to vote there anyway if he were Maf. Rather than a hard in the paint defense...which I don't feel he's doing in perpetuity, he's made it clear that he's looking for certain things and progress.


There are def player's who are pushing me tho, before I've had a chance to get my legs under me

[nutella]

i guess i don't necessarily think sean is wolfy for it i just don't get it lol

[Inawordyes]

Okay, reset, topic-change, pivot-shift

What was the turning point yesterday when Lily overtook Neon as the main wagon?

they were both the main wagons from sod, i dont remember if majority went back and forth much but both were in contention for much of the day i think

i mean there was a point when i maybe personally pivoted to focusing more on lily? idk i dont care enough to look for it

why does this matter we are killing falcon today

Neon is more or less in the same boat I questioned Wilgy on earlier, of being a top wagon, almost dying, and then the next day there’s still dissension but the preferred wagons of choice have completely flipped. It’s like the thread is collectively resetting after every single day phase and picking completely new wagons out of a hat. Even today, Schia, Falcon and Santy currently are/were the top wagons.

It’s not as if Lily flipping town, or Ran flipping NPC, inherently clears Neon/Wilgy from being mafia, they were the CW to someone that didn’t flip Mafia, and so in Neon’s case specifically, considering that Lily was actually a player flip, I’m trying to parse whether there’s any threadstate- or VCA-based merit to the idea that Neon is mafia and there was agitation typical of trying to protect her, and/or if maybe Lily got scouted and the way the thread was reacting to her yesterday could he potentially indicative of it via mafia knowing she would be a hit and pushing the wagon towards her over Neon.

It’s a tall order, but again I’m trying to figure out the merit of it. We haven’t had a single mafia flip yet and I’m trying to think of whatever I can that I can look into that works to my solving strengths, which generally falls in the tone, threadstate, and VCA direction (as you know)

tbc i still think iawy is town i just really dont understand how his mind works

tbc i still think iawy is town i just really dont understand how his mind works

In a world where falcon is town (and he is, trust me), who are the wolves pushing his wagon?



Cuz I don't know if I've ever been mislynched by a pure wagon. Ever

prolly exactly one of jack/santy lol

like i can see jack faking this confidence as a wolf maybe

I don’t understand how you say you don’t understand my mind and use it as a dismissal of my read on Santy being that he’s faking his confidence in his Falcon vote, only to turn around and say that you think Jack is faking his confidence in his Falcon vote with no shred of self-reflection on the irony of that progression

[nutella]

1) yeah thats fair about neon, i shouldn't be dismissing her as a wagon so easily

2) i somewhat acknowledge the irony/parallel i guess but it doesn't change the fact that santy made perfect sense lol

[Inawordyes]

[VOTE: jackofhearts2005] aubergine

kung pow

I don’t think it’s Jack, but I do think you’re townie for this vote though. You didn’t lay out your thoughts ITT like I did but you came to the same logical conclusion I think

Namely, if Jack/Santy is faking their confidence on their scumread of Falcon, then either Jack/Santy is mafia and faking the confidence to justify bussing their teammate for cred, or Jack/Santy is mafia and faking the confidence to justify pushing a mischop

Falcon’s alignment can be anything, but irregardless of it, if Jack/Santy are faking confidence on the read they’re basically always mafia and therefore the bigger priority to get out because it becomes the stronger and more foundationay-strengthened read

That is assuming that you thought it through to the same conclusion as I did, of course. And I find that super interesting because if you did, then we both see the Falcon wagon as containing mafia, for exactly the same reason, we just disagree on the who. You think it’s Jack and disagree on my read of Santy, I think it’s Santy and disagree on your read of Jack. But we are of the same mind in the broad strokes, and so I’m inclined to just lock you in as town

[nutella]

i just don't think santy is faking confidence and his thought process of using jack's confidence to bolster his read rang 1000% genuine to me because I had pretty much the same process while reading back (just with that twinge of doubt about jack that is now growing again)

[Inawordyes]

1) yeah thats fair about neon, i shouldn't be dismissing her as a wagon so easily

2) i somewhat acknowledge the irony/parallel i guess but it doesn't change the fact that santy made perfect sense lol

1) It doesn’t even make Neon automatically mafia, and I voted for her yesterday and here I am being part of the “problem” in not pushing her today (though in my case, my vote was more of a spite thing early on and then I disappeared before EoD and just never changed it). But it’s like I see Wilgy get super heavily pushed and only not die because of NPCs causing a tie, and then nobody wants to push Wilgy anymore. And now the same thing is happening with Neon where she got pushed pretty heavily yesterday, didn’t die, and today nobody wants to push in that direction

Does it mean that Wilgy and/or Neon are town/NPC and the mafia are moving on to greener pastures to find a better target to mischop? Or does it mean that either are mafia the team is pushing the target onto others to protect them from becoming a top wagon again? That’s what I’m trying to figure out, because it feels to me like it would have a significant impact on our ability to correct solve this game. And IIRC both Wilgy and Neon have claimed to be players? So it’s not like they’re just NPCs hanging around, solving them is paramount because they’ll be here D8 if they don’t get chopped or NK’ed

-

2)

[nutella]

But it’s like I see Wilgy get super heavily pushed and only not die because of NPCs causing a tie, and then nobody wants to push Wilgy anymore. And now the same thing is happening with Neon where she got pushed pretty heavily yesterday, didn’t die, and today nobody wants to push in that direction

yeah i just have this problem where i feel they're townie whenever they post wowee

[Inawordyes]

i just don't think santy is faking confidence and his thought process of using jack's confidence to bolster his read rang 1000% genuine to me because I had pretty much the same process while reading back (just with that twinge of doubt about jack that is now growing again)

I wasn’t calling your Santy townread into question, you don’t have to defend it to me. As stated I disagree, but that’s fine, and I didn’t vote Santy through that whole exchange so evidently your Jack read is stronger than my Santy read anyways.

The main point, though, is that we both are of similar if not the same kind on Falcon’s wagon, just different voter as the culprit. But the idea that someone who voted Falcon is faking their confidence to peddle a wagon is the main bit, and the wagon as a whole should be looked into more closely because we both see the same thing being off about it. Two people separately coming to almost the same conclusion lends more weight than either of it doing it alone

[Inawordyes]

And personally, because I’m a lhf who’s sucked this game, I think you independently coming to that conclusion after I did (as opposed to the other way around), puts a lot more stock into the idea just because if I did it afterwards, I’d be a copycat and nobody would care, but you’re widely townread with an established top townie perception, so me doing it, and then you doing makes it matter more, especially while you disagree with the conclusion of my read on the situation but agree with the read of the situation itself just with a different conclusion

That’s my take on it anyways

[Inawordyes]

But it’s like I see Wilgy get super heavily pushed and only not die because of NPCs causing a tie, and then nobody wants to push Wilgy anymore. And now the same thing is happening with Neon where she got pushed pretty heavily yesterday, didn’t die, and today nobody wants to push in that direction

yeah i just have this problem where i feel they're townie whenever they post wowee

But if that’s the case now, then what was the different yesterday/D3 when they were getting majorly sussed and the thread as a whole held the opposite opinion?

Is it really just as simple as “NPCs didn’t care, pushed whoever, purged/died, now no more voices pushing that direction”? Or is there more to the story with active mafia involvement?

[Seanzie]

ive mindmelded with like almost all of santy's posts in the last few pages and iawy's position is utterly baffling to me lol

What about my position?

the hard defending falcon for completely indecipherable reasons? yeah no youre gonna have to help me out there

like im starting to see falcon could be town with some of his posts but the firmness with which you have been fighting this wagon is incomprehensible

I had looked at that as well, but Sean has been playing with me a bit lately, and he's getting more familiar with my tone.

the bewildering thing though is he kept saying like he hadn't actually found you town particularly and more just wanted to give you time to show if you are town but that uncertainty didn't show in his responses to votes on you

Premise 1: If Falcon is wolf, then flipping him today won't break the game open and waiting to flip him until I have had time to sort him won't lose the game.

--------Reasoning for Premise 1: Wolf!Falcon's biggest strength is in leaving hard-to-read spew, so flipping them first on a team isn't necessarily a bad thing, but it rarely leads to other wolves. On the flipside, Falcon is rarely a good choice to go deep as Falcon doesn't really like wolfing and tends to be uncomfortable lying, so deep!Falcon is rarely going to win games. Bee mafia and Ducktales were both lost after a D1 Wolf!Falcon flip.

Premise 2: If I am given more time, I believe I can sort Falcon

---------Reasoning for Premise 2: I ended both "Lawyers, Guns and Money" and "It's always Sunny in Philadelpha" with confident townreads on town!Falcon even when the thread was against them at times, and I hard-caught wolf!Falcon in Ducktales. It is possible he can fool me, but I believe I can get to a a high-accuracy read on him.

Premise 3: Falcon is a common miselim target

----------Reasoning for Premise 3: I'm not going to go dig through old games for all the examples. If you doubt this premise, let me know and I CAN, but I think most people who have played with Falcon know this.

Conclusion: Falcon is not a good elim today.

[nutella]

i dont give a shit about spew i give a shit about flipping wolves

[nutella]

but yeah reasonable process lol

[Inawordyes]

So the next logical step in the mental chain Nutella, using Sean’s #3 as a slight bolstering effect, is that if we agree that in broad strokes there’s direct mafia influence in Falcon’s wagon, then is that good or bad for Falcon?

[nutella]

So the next logical step in the mental chain Nutella, using Sean’s #3 as a slight bolstering effect, is that if we agree that in broad strokes there’s direct mafia influence in Falcon’s wagon, then is that good or bad for Falcon?

if i accept that premise and sean's premises then falcon is somewhat more likely to be town yes

the thing is i am still going back and forth a bit on jack

but at this moment i am leaning jack wolf falcon town


not enough to fight the falcon wagon particularly

[Inawordyes]

So the next logical step in the mental chain Nutella, using Sean’s #3 as a slight bolstering effect, is that if we agree that in broad strokes there’s direct mafia influence in Falcon’s wagon, then is that good or bad for Falcon?

if i accept that premise and sean's premises then falcon is somewhat more likely to be town yes

the thing is i am still going back and forth a bit on jack

but at this moment i am leaning jack wolf falcon town


not enough to fight the falcon wagon particularly

If you take Sean’s case out of the equation and stick solely to “I believe there is a mafia on Falcon’s wagon, faking confidence in a scumread to justify their vote there”, does it still make Falcon look more like town getting pushed or does it make Falcon look more like mafia getting bussed?

[Inawordyes]

I am going back and forth on what that means for Falcon, I’ve already stated earlier that I think it delves more into the side of “TMI spewing Falcon mafia bevause you’re also mafia so your confidence is because you know and you can’t know unless you are mafia”, but I can ofc see it both ways

[nutella]

So the next logical step in the mental chain Nutella, using Sean’s #3 as a slight bolstering effect, is that if we agree that in broad strokes there’s direct mafia influence in Falcon’s wagon, then is that good or bad for Falcon?

if i accept that premise and sean's premises then falcon is somewhat more likely to be town yes

the thing is i am still going back and forth a bit on jack

but at this moment i am leaning jack wolf falcon town


not enough to fight the falcon wagon particularly

If you take Sean’s case out of the equation and stick solely to “I believe there is a mafia on Falcon’s wagon, faking confidence in a scumread to justify their vote there”, does it still make Falcon look more like town getting pushed or does it make Falcon look more like mafia getting bussed?

i lean the former? maybe?

[nutella]

I am going back and forth on what that means for Falcon, I’ve already stated earlier that I think it delves more into the side of “TMI spewing Falcon mafia bevause you’re also mafia so your confidence is because you know and you can’t know unless you are mafia”, but I can ofc see it both ways

meh it's possible

[Inawordyes]

It’s like [Jack is] absolutely convinced that Falcon is mafia to the point where [Jack] [knows] Falcon is mafia. The scout to my understanding is basically just an “NPC or Player” cop, so there is no way as town that [Jack] can know that Falcon is mafia; the only way that [Jack] can know that Falcon is mafia is if [Jack is] also mafia

The confidence [Jack has] in this read being correct is way too high. So either [Jack and Falcon are] both [mafia] together, or [Jack’s] manufacturing the confidence to justify pushing Falcon. That makes [Jack] look extremely scummy

If I insert Jack’s name into this comment from earlier, does it make sense to you and/or is something that you can find agreement with as far as the situation goes wrt to own read on Jack in this scenario?

[Michelle]

Again I am going tl make a comparison that is not 'equal to the case' but more like an exaggeration to be more clear.

Player A is a townread. Player B is a PoE slot.

Then comes Player A with a copcheck that Player B is mafia.


That *is* a confidence boost on Player B being more likely to be mafia, and I shouldnt need another reason (?)

Like, here the cop check would be replaced with Jack recent posts about Falcon, but id what are you even digging into bcuz yeh I think its a pretty basic stuff

I realize you say that it’s an exaggeration, but comparing Jack’s reads to a cop check is way too much confidence on a read that you should not have that much confidence about. It’s like you’re absolutely convinced that Falcon is mafia to the point where you know Falcon is mafia. The scout to my understanding is basically just an “NPC or Player” cop, so there is no way as town that you can know that Falcon is mafia; the only way that you can know that Falcon is mafia is if you are also mafia

The confidence you have in this read being correct is way too high. So either you’re both mafis together, or you’re manufacturing the confidence to justify pushing Falcon. That makes you look extremely scummy

What if I'm reeeeeeeeeally good at mafia, though?

You are, but that’s not AI

[Inawordyes]

I am going back and forth on what that means for Falcon, I’ve already stated earlier that I think it delves more into the side of “TMI spewing Falcon mafia bevause you’re also mafia so your confidence is because you know and you can’t know unless you are mafia”, but I can ofc see it both ways

meh it's possible

It feels like pulling teeth trying to get you to engage with me here, that’s a really sucky feeling when I’m genuinely trying to solve and level with you on something we both agree about

[nutella]

It’s like [Jack is] absolutely convinced that Falcon is mafia to the point where [Jack] [knows] Falcon is mafia. The scout to my understanding is basically just an “NPC or Player” cop, so there is no way as town that [Jack] can know that Falcon is mafia; the only way that [Jack] can know that Falcon is mafia is if [Jack is] also mafia

The confidence [Jack has] in this read being correct is way too high. So either [Jack and Falcon are] both [mafia] together, or [Jack’s] manufacturing the confidence to justify pushing Falcon. That makes [Jack] look extremely scummy

If I insert Jack’s name into this comment from earlier, does it make sense to you and/or is something that you can find agreement with as far as the situation goes wrt to own read on Jack in this scenario?

i can see it either way

i guess that is, either of three ways
he's mafia with falcon
he's mafia pushing town falcon
he's town with genuine confidence falcon is a hit

i know this isn't helpful lol

[nutella]

but i guess my personal ranking of those is currently 2>3>1?? idk

[nutella]

I am going back and forth on what that means for Falcon, I’ve already stated earlier that I think it delves more into the side of “TMI spewing Falcon mafia bevause you’re also mafia so your confidence is because you know and you can’t know unless you are mafia”, but I can ofc see it both ways

meh it's possible

It feels like pulling teeth trying to get you to engage with me here, that’s a really sucky feeling when I’m genuinely trying to solve and level with you on something we both agree about

i am engaging?? i am just extremely waffly and unsure of what i believe at the moment i'm sorry

[Inawordyes]

It’s like [Jack is] absolutely convinced that Falcon is mafia to the point where [Jack] [knows] Falcon is mafia. The scout to my understanding is basically just an “NPC or Player” cop, so there is no way as town that [Jack] can know that Falcon is mafia; the only way that [Jack] can know that Falcon is mafia is if [Jack is] also mafia

The confidence [Jack has] in this read being correct is way too high. So either [Jack and Falcon are] both [mafia] together, or [Jack’s] manufacturing the confidence to justify pushing Falcon. That makes [Jack] look extremely scummy

If I insert Jack’s name into this comment from earlier, does it make sense to you and/or is something that you can find agreement with as far as the situation goes wrt to own read on Jack in this scenario?

i can see it either way

i guess that is, either of three ways
he's mafia with falcon
he's mafia pushing town falcon
he's town with genuine confidence falcon is a hit

i know this isn't helpful lol

then why did you post it

Those are the three scenarios, yes

Something something “ all circles presuppose they'll end where they begin but only in their leaving can they ever come back round”

Except “come back round” is code for “getting absolutely nowhere”

[Inawordyes]

but i guess my personal ranking of those is currently 2>3>1?? idk

Okay, well then that’s something, even if you’re in a waffly state where you aren’t sure, why is Jack being town with genuine confidence in his solve the least-likely of the three?

There’s also the fourth option, where Jack is genuinely confident in his solve - but Falcon is also town. In a T-T world (or even a T-T-T where both of them + Santy are town), where does that put things?

[Inawordyes]

I’ll go even further down that trek - Sean said earlier that he thinks there’s a good chance that Iawy/Santy could be W/V, and in the V!Santy world, me pushing on Santy’s vote in this scenario is scummy opportunism. If Falcon is town and Santy is town (and/or Jack), then does that affect your townread on me? If yes, then does it affect your scumlean-ish read on Sean for calling out the situation?

I do find it interesting that you seemingly thought Sean’s reasonings for scum reading Santy were better than mine, and yet you’re down on Sean over his while still townreading me as “that silly goober Iawy, he makes no sense sometimes”

[nutella]

why is Jack being town with genuine confidence in his solve the least-likely of the three?

no that's 3 which is second most

[nutella]

There’s also the fourth option, where Jack is genuinely confident in his solve - but Falcon is also town.

and that's included in the same scenario where i said nothing about falcon's alignment if jack is town

[Inawordyes]

why is Jack being town with genuine confidence in his solve the least-likely of the three?

no that's 3 which is second most

Ohhhhhhhhh my bad, I read it as 2>1>3

[nutella]

In a T-T world (or even a T-T-T where both of them + Santy are town), where does that put things?

then i prob go back to neon?

[ilario]

@ilario talk to me about your reads pls and why are you so low effort this game still tyty

I don’t really have any lol

Still waiting for all the npcs to die

[Inawordyes]

There’s also the fourth option, where Jack is genuinely confident in his solve - but Falcon is also town.

and that's included in the same scenario where i said nothing about falcon's alignment if jack is town

I know, but I’m separating it out specifically to ask the question, because you clearly have a focus on Falcon and/or his wagon rn, but if it’s all town, then where does your focus shift?

[nutella]

I’ll go even further down that trek - Sean said earlier that he thinks there’s a good chance that Iawy/Santy could be W/V, and in the V!Santy world, me pushing on Santy’s vote in this scenario is scummy opportunism. If Falcon is town and Santy is town (and/or Jack), then does that affect your townread on me? If yes, then does it affect your scumlean-ish read on Sean for calling out the situation?

I do find it interesting that you seemingly thought Sean’s reasonings for scum reading Santy were better than mine, and yet you’re down on Sean over his while still townreading me as “that silly goober Iawy, he makes no sense sometimes”

i'm pretty solid on you town regardless

and i don't think i ever said i scumlean seanzie, i don't think i do in most scenarios actually

[Inawordyes]

In a T-T world (or even a T-T-T where both of them + Santy are town), where does that put things?

then i prob go back to neon?

Stop answering questions I don’t think you’re gonna answer while responding to your previous posts asking you to answer

[nutella]

i'm sorry i think the way you think through things just doesn't really mesh with mine

i'm not that methodical i'm a vibes player

[Inawordyes]

@ilario talk to me about your reads pls and why are you so low effort this game still tyty

I don’t really have any lol

Still waiting for all the npcs to die

[VOTE: ilario] aubergine

Hi ilario, nice of you to drop by and openly declare your intent to give absolutely nothing

Care to join us as we try to solve the game?

[nutella]

like i usually have a few "if x flips town, then y, if wolf, then z" chains in my head but they don't go past that step, i don't plan every possible scenario out

[nutella]

i'm engaging with your process as best i can on my own terms, not sure what's so frustrating about it other than i just don't have very strong reads atm

[Inawordyes]

i'm sorry i think the way you think through things just doesn't really mesh with mine

i'm not that methodical i'm a vibes player

Well I mean so am I haha, and you know this about me

But you kinda have to do both, and if nothing else I’m trying to get better at doing both because nobody likes vibes!Iawy that much even when I’m consistently correct on things literally everybody else fights me over and I would like for people to listen to what I have to say, y’know?

[Inawordyes]

i'm engaging with your process as best i can on my own terms, not sure what's so frustrating about it other than i just don't have very strong reads atm

I never said it was frustrating, the “stop answering” post was a joke

[Michelle]

[col]ilario[/col]

[Michelle]

[VOTE: ilario] aubergine

[santygrass]

I want to say that I heavily disagree with the 'falcon push has a mafia there' as a means to solve because it sounds like a super confbias read and I would think that Jack is prob town regardless of Falcon alignment here fwiw. The way that Jack pushed I think is just Villa indicative to me /shrug.

I also have other posts I quoted but I am sneaking in at work and cant spend much time posting smh skill issue

[santygrass]

[VOTE: ilario] aubergine

@ilario the time to start solving is now tbh

[nutella]

I am going back and forth on what that means for Falcon, I’ve already stated earlier that I think it delves more into the side of “TMI spewing Falcon mafia bevause you’re also mafia so your confidence is because you know and you can’t know unless you are mafia”, but I can ofc see it both ways

meh it's possible

It feels like pulling teeth trying to get you to engage with me here, that’s a really sucky feeling when I’m genuinely trying to solve and level with you on something we both agree about

was more referring to this post