The Syndicate

colonialbob wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 9:43 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 9:42 pm

Golden wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 9:38 pm
What’s more generally speaking speeding up the rate of death in any given fashion is considered not to alter balance so for jay to make this claim is HIGHLY suspect.

and as for this, I don't think he's bullshitting it, I think it checks out with his views on balance. he is always going on about how important lynches are for the civs, and this essentially increases the lynch-to-NK ratio which gives civs more power.

But that's only true if this triple-lynch is the same as 3 regular lynches. I think it's pretty firmly not, since town can't control all 3 places with any reasonable assumptions on mafia sizes.

nutella wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 9:49 pm

colonialbob wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 9:43 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 9:42 pm

Golden wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 9:38 pm
What’s more generally speaking speeding up the rate of death in any given fashion is considered not to alter balance so for jay to make this claim is HIGHLY suspect.

and as for this, I don't think he's bullshitting it, I think it checks out with his views on balance. he is always going on about how important lynches are for the civs, and this essentially increases the lynch-to-NK ratio which gives civs more power.

But that's only true if this triple-lynch is the same as 3 regular lynches. I think it's pretty firmly not, since town can't control all 3 places with any reasonable assumptions on mafia sizes.

uurrghhh you may convince me yet. maybe I'm too hopeful in thinking we can spread town control to 3 strong candidates. but really this all goes back to the benefit of how much we will learn from that day. if two of the lynchees are town then we can look to who tried to control those votes and we'll have some juicy material to work with

Golden wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 9:52 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 9:49 pm

colonialbob wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 9:43 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 9:42 pm

Golden wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 9:38 pm
What’s more generally speaking speeding up the rate of death in any given fashion is considered not to alter balance so for jay to make this claim is HIGHLY suspect.

and as for this, I don't think he's bullshitting it, I think it checks out with his views on balance. he is always going on about how important lynches are for the civs, and this essentially increases the lynch-to-NK ratio which gives civs more power.

But that's only true if this triple-lynch is the same as 3 regular lynches. I think it's pretty firmly not, since town can't control all 3 places with any reasonable assumptions on mafia sizes.

uurrghhh you may convince me yet. maybe I'm too hopeful in thinking we can spread town control to 3 strong candidates. but really this all goes back to the benefit of how much we will learn from that day. if two of the lynchees are town then we can look to who tried to control those votes and we'll have some juicy material to work with

Town can’t even reliably control one lynch. We’re uninformed. There might come a time later when this rule would be useful but it’s probably most town-leaning when we have a much better idea of what’s going on.

I would throw my hands in the air and pretty much ignore tomorrow if that rule happened. Ita basically a ‘mafia lynch town golden’ rule. It’s seriously awful. AWFUL Nutella. There is zero to commend it as a good idea.

colonialbob wrote: ↑Fri May 18, 2018 3:34 pm I'd vote DDL if he was on the poll I think.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 8:29 pm #6 is extremely pro-civilian. Vote it now!

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 9:57 pm The more I think about it, the more I think that a mafia would want to vote for 6. Some of the options are too anti-town to even consider, but 6 is right in that sweet spot where you can make a coherent argument for it and still set yourself up nicely to really fuck the town/other teams. But I dunno.

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 9:57 pm The more I think about it, the more I think that a mafia would want to vote for 6. Some of the options are too anti-town to even consider, but 6 is right in that sweet spot where you can make a coherent argument for it and still set yourself up nicely to really fuck the town/other teams. But I dunno.

Golden wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 9:58 pm Honestly if that poll option wins I’ll be looking extremely strongly at anyone who is on it. Every mafia in the game will want to pick it.

Golden wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 9:58 pm Honestly if that poll option wins I’ll be looking extremely strongly at anyone who is on it. Every mafia in the game will want to pick it.

Golden wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 9:58 pm Honestly if that poll option wins I’ll be looking extremely strongly at anyone who is on it. Every mafia in the game will want to pick it.

Charlie Blackmon wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 9:56 pm

coloinalbob

While I appreciate colinalbob's support of me in the end, I don't think I can reciprocate.

His posts were all wild, going this way and that, like the balls do in Wrigley Field when the wind is going nuts.

colonialbob wrote: ↑Fri May 18, 2018 3:34 pm I'd vote DDL if he was on the poll I think.

This doesn't mean anything to me, I'm afraid.

I'd like colonialbob to settle in and get comfortable. For now, he's a fly out.

FLYOUT

Scotty wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 10:01 pm

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 9:57 pm The more I think about it, the more I think that a mafia would want to vote for 6. Some of the options are too anti-town to even consider, but 6 is right in that sweet spot where you can make a coherent argument for it and still set yourself up nicely to really fuck the town/other teams. But I dunno.

Lol yeah true

Ok but devils advocate: we’re bound to get some mislynches in this game anyway, and there’s nowhere to hide for baddies that may have been saved in singular lynches. I think there is juicier jnfotk to be gained in one day

Scotty wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 10:02 pm

Golden wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 9:58 pm Honestly if that poll option wins I’ll be looking extremely strongly at anyone who is on it. Every mafia in the game will want to pick it.

I’m picking it. Be suspect of me, I don’t care

BUT do think about the positives. I think jjj has a good argument, whether or not mafia would also want that is circumstantial

Golden wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 10:06 pm What information would we learn from a triple town hanging?

Golden wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 10:05 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 10:02 pm

Golden wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 9:58 pm Honestly if that poll option wins I’ll be looking extremely strongly at anyone who is on it. Every mafia in the game will want to pick it.

I’m picking it. Be suspect of me, I don’t care

BUT do think about the positives. I think jjj has a good argument, whether or not mafia would also want that is circumstantial

No his argument is awful. It’s seriously bad.

I will just ask for modkill if this option wins because it’s basically town saying ‘hey, I know, why don’t we just let mafia pick off people they’re threatened by without having to nk them. What amazing fortune!’

I have never watched townsmen do willingly lead themselves to slaughter. I don’t often use the word stupid but picking that option is stupid. It’s really really really really really stupid.

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 10:08 pm

Golden wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 10:06 pm What information would we learn from a triple town hanging?

This is where I'm at. I think I understand the argument that lynches are a town's best weapon, but I've also seen a lot of lynches where town just fucks it up and walks away with "clarity" regarding a dead person, not much else.

Golden wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 10:06 pm What information would we learn from a triple town hanging?

Charlie Blackmon wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 10:11 pm But this kid in the dugout kept saying how lynches keep mafia in check. He said, "Maybe instead pretend you got three lynches in a row with no Night kills in between. How would that feel?"

Charlie Blackmon wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 10:11 pm

Golden wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 10:05 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 10:02 pm

Golden wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 9:58 pm Honestly if that poll option wins I’ll be looking extremely strongly at anyone who is on it. Every mafia in the game will want to pick it.

I’m picking it. Be suspect of me, I don’t care

BUT do think about the positives. I think jjj has a good argument, whether or not mafia would also want that is circumstantial

No his argument is awful. It’s seriously bad.

I will just ask for modkill if this option wins because it’s basically town saying ‘hey, I know, why don’t we just let mafia pick off people they’re threatened by without having to nk them. What amazing fortune!’

I have never watched townsmen do willingly lead themselves to slaughter. I don’t often use the word stupid but picking that option is stupid. It’s really really really really really stupid.

Lynches are the tool of the civilians. So I've heard. I've never played Mafia. I'm Charlie Blackmon. I play baseball.

But this kid in the dugout kept saying how lynches keep mafia in check. He said, "Maybe instead pretend you got three lynches in a row with no Night kills in between. How would that feel?"

Sounds pretty good, even though I don't know anything about that.

Golden wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 10:06 pm What information would we learn from a triple town hanging?

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 10:15 pm

Charlie Blackmon wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 10:11 pm But this kid in the dugout kept saying how lynches keep mafia in check. He said, "Maybe instead pretend you got three lynches in a row with no Night kills in between. How would that feel?"

Dang. That does sound pretty good, Charlie. But I'm also not confident that we have enough to draw on to make an informed decision tomorrow, let alone 3.

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 10:18 pm This being a bastard game, I hope Mac just doesn't implement anything after all the debate, it'd be the funniest option.

Charlie Blackmon wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 10:17 pm Guys, I'm a baseball player. I don't understand what you do.

If you could have three Day phases in a row, would you take them? If not, why not?

Charlie Blackmon wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 10:18 pm Your opponents DO have enough confidence to make informed decisions in the Night, Colin.

Charlie Blackmon wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 10:17 pm Guys, I'm a baseball player. I don't understand what you do.

If you could have three Day phases in a row, would you take them? If not, why not?

Charlie Blackmon wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 10:17 pm Guys, I'm a baseball player. I don't understand what you do.

If you could have three Day phases in a row, would you take them? If not, why not?

nutella wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 10:22 pm

Charlie Blackmon wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 10:17 pm Guys, I'm a baseball player. I don't understand what you do.

If you could have three Day phases in a row, would you take them? If not, why not?

Thanks Epi, this argument is reinforcing my confidence in this decision -- it's really stupid not to take this opportunity, Jay's right about that and sorry Golden you're wrong for thinking it's stupid to do it. It's statistically, computably, objectively a better chance for the civs compared to a basic prototypical series of lynches and nightkills one-to-one. To be completely fair, this thought experiment of Epi's is not a perfect one again for the reason that it's condensed into a single phase of discussion and we wouldn't necessarily lynch the same people on three separate days and that it's a single vote spread so harder for the town to control all three lynches, but it's early in the game, there are a lot of us, I'm sure we can manage to get a set of 3 candidates that enough civs would like to vote for.

Golden wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 10:33 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 10:22 pm

Charlie Blackmon wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 10:17 pm Guys, I'm a baseball player. I don't understand what you do.

If you could have three Day phases in a row, would you take them? If not, why not?

Thanks Epi, this argument is reinforcing my confidence in this decision -- it's really stupid not to take this opportunity, Jay's right about that and sorry Golden you're wrong for thinking it's stupid to do it. It's statistically, computably, objectively a better chance for the civs compared to a basic prototypical series of lynches and nightkills one-to-one. To be completely fair, this thought experiment of Epi's is not a perfect one again for the reason that it's condensed into a single phase of discussion and we wouldn't necessarily lynch the same people on three separate days and that it's a single vote spread so harder for the town to control all three lynches, but it's early in the game, there are a lot of us, I'm sure we can manage to get a set of 3 candidates that enough civs would like to vote for.

Nutella is bad and at the top of my hit list.

She’s pretending to engage but she’ll ‘hope’ in the face of good logic and agree that non-analogous situations are persuasive.

I don’t believe she is genuinely considering any alternative.

Quin wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 10:32 pm

Charlie Blackmon wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 10:17 pm Guys, I'm a baseball player. I don't understand what you do.

If you could have three Day phases in a row, would you take them? If not, why not?

It isn't three day phases in a row. It's three at once.

Golden wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 10:37 pm I cannot believe Nutella could see this as being statistically a better option out if epis claim. She doesn’t miss mathematical flaws.

Charlie Blackmon wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 10:40 pm

Golden wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 10:37 pm I cannot believe Nutella could see this as being statistically a better option out if epis claim. She doesn’t miss mathematical flaws.

2) The poll will only have 8 people on it, selected randomly

Make your case for this thing.

Charlie Blackmon wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 10:37 pm

Quin wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 10:32 pm

Charlie Blackmon wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 10:17 pm Guys, I'm a baseball player. I don't understand what you do.

If you could have three Day phases in a row, would you take them? If not, why not?

It isn't three day phases in a row. It's three at once.

I'm aware.

My point is that, if you wouldn't take three at once, would you take three with Night kills in between them?

Golden wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 10:41 pm There are however many town votes. Let’s say for the sake of argument there are 20 town, 8 mafia, 2 third parties. I expect Mac to have more 3p and quite possibly that would be unbalanced towards mafia so it’s more likely we have 18 civs or fewer.

Even if we could know who all civs were, agree and split them evenly - that’s only six on each of three chains with twelve other votes out there. And in reality we can’t control it that much.

On day one second place had four votes. FOUR!

The reason the town has an advantage in a lynch is they have strength in numbers. You are diluting this down to six civs per lynch. That’s bad odds and bad statistics to suggest otherwise!