Re: [DAY 1] Courage the Cowardly Dog Mafia
Posted: Tue Jun 19, 2018 12:37 pm
NABANANABABOUWOWOWOWOWOWOW
Murder, Mayhem, and Mafia
https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/
NABANANABABOUWOWOWOWOWOWOW
Statistically, if you look at the odds of a properly balanced mafia game, Town wins by randomization and roles more often than they do if hunting. The latter is susceptible to being fooled. The former is not.ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 1:22 pm I don’t really understand the rationale behind a random vote or the endorsement of it by other players.
Casting bait/doubt suspicions
Down on himself. Symptom of guilt over scum role? Checked past game, Dom has said he is not scum at heart.
Lamenting the game type in leau of contributing. Something I do often as scum.
Knows that speed is an easy first lynch when he's town. Testing the waters. Or joking, IDK. Not funny. Deserves lynch.
Literally hasn't posted today. Not super-scummy but I wanted to note it.novaselinenever wrote: ↑Mon Jun 18, 2018 2:02 am I was drinking a soda in a dream. When I woke up in the middle of the night, I was thirsty but instead of drinking water, I had an urge for a cold soda. So I went to the kitchen to grab one, that's when I found a full can, still cold, outside of the fridge.
That was spooky. Still drank it though.
Not feeling burnt-out right now. Relishing the opportunity to play as town in a relatively normal game, which I haven't done in months.ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 1:31 pm Speed, while not much to go off of, I would characterize you as behaving differently, with more urgency and forcefulness, than you did in U-Pick as town. Care to comment?
Like speed's tone (mostly in response to the 4th quote) and reasons for his suspicions (for 2, 3 and 4). Think he's likely town.speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 1:29 pm Reasons to suspect:
Casting bait/doubt suspicions
Down on himself. Symptom of guilt over scum role? Checked past game, Dom has said he is not scum at heart.
Expected more aggressive meta.
Lamenting the game type in leau of contributing. Something I do often as scum.
Knows that speed is an easy first lynch when he's town. Testing the waters. Or joking, IDK. Not funny. Deserves lynch.
Literally hasn't posted today. Not super-scummy but I wanted to note it.novaselinenever wrote: ↑Mon Jun 18, 2018 2:02 am I was drinking a soda in a dream. When I woke up in the middle of the night, I was thirsty but instead of drinking water, I had an urge for a cold soda. So I went to the kitchen to grab one, that's when I found a full can, still cold, outside of the fridge.
That was spooky. Still drank it though.
There's not a lot to suspect people for, really. Because nobody is doing anything. 5.5 hours remain.
In response to this, it completely depends on which group of people are playing, I've played in groups where we actually have to balance games in what would in general be mafia-sided just to make the games even, becuase people know eachothers playstyles well and are great townies. Also, there's the problem of "how do you truly randomize in a situation like this?" You need someone to do the randomizing, how how do we know that person isn't scum just picking a townie and saying it was random?speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 1:27 pmStatistically, if you look at the odds of a properly balanced mafia game, Town wins by randomization and roles more often than they do if hunting. The latter is susceptible to being fooled. The former is not.ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 1:22 pm I don’t really understand the rationale behind a random vote or the endorsement of it by other players.
However, odds of victory do not matter. We are here to play mafia, not roulette. Victory means nothing if we didn't hunt it down and strangle it.
Based on behavior? I do feel a little weird about Luna buying into the idea of a random lynch so easily. Seems like it could be taking the easy way out. As a matter of policy I’d kinda rather get rid of someone who isn’t attempting contributions (no-posters) but that’s not ideal either.
Of course it wouldn't be in the spirit of the fun of the game to randomize either, that I agree with, but I don't necessarily think it's a smart thing if we wanna maximize the % of town winning either.Fractal wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 1:47 pmIn response to this, it completely depends on which group of people are playing, I've played in groups where we actually have to balance games in what would in general be mafia-sided just to make the games even, becuase people know eachothers playstyles well and are great townies. Also, there's the problem of "how do you truly randomize in a situation like this?" You need someone to do the randomizing, how how do we know that person isn't scum just picking a townie and saying it was random?speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 1:27 pmStatistically, if you look at the odds of a properly balanced mafia game, Town wins by randomization and roles more often than they do if hunting. The latter is susceptible to being fooled. The former is not.ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 1:22 pm I don’t really understand the rationale behind a random vote or the endorsement of it by other players.
However, odds of victory do not matter. We are here to play mafia, not roulette. Victory means nothing if we didn't hunt it down and strangle it.
I think it's a good thing for the most part to lynch people that aren't contributing much early on for several reasons.ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 1:49 pmBased on behavior? I do feel a little weird about Luna buying into the idea of a random lynch so easily. Seems like it could be taking the easy way out. As a matter of policy I’d kinda rather get rid of someone who isn’t attempting contributions (no-posters) but that’s not ideal either.
But gotta add, if you have a strong feeling someone is scum in the high-posters, for sure vote them over a random low-poster.Fractal wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 1:54 pmI think it's a good thing for the most part to lynch people that aren't contributing much early on for several reasons.ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 1:49 pmBased on behavior? I do feel a little weird about Luna buying into the idea of a random lynch so easily. Seems like it could be taking the easy way out. As a matter of policy I’d kinda rather get rid of someone who isn’t attempting contributions (no-posters) but that’s not ideal either.
1. It's gonna be harder to figure them out later on than someone who continues to post. And more discussion in general is good for town
2. Most people post more as town than as scum, so even if sorting by postcount can't solve games alone, i think you still should take it into consideration
3. Funnier game if not too many of the alive people are low-posting
It's a better vote than random-voting.ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 1:49 pmBased on behavior? I do feel a little weird about Luna buying into the idea of a random lynch so easily. Seems like it could be taking the easy way out. As a matter of policy I’d kinda rather get rid of someone who isn’t attempting contributions (no-posters) but that’s not ideal either.
I'm open to suggestions and to changing my vote. I just don't have a good read on anyone on day one.ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 1:49 pmBased on behavior? I do feel a little weird about Luna buying into the idea of a random lynch so easily. Seems like it could be taking the easy way out. As a matter of policy I’d kinda rather get rid of someone who isn’t attempting contributions (no-posters) but that’s not ideal either.
Which, Luna or a low-poster?Marmot wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 2:06 pmIt's a better vote than random-voting.ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 1:49 pmBased on behavior? I do feel a little weird about Luna buying into the idea of a random lynch so easily. Seems like it could be taking the easy way out. As a matter of policy I’d kinda rather get rid of someone who isn’t attempting contributions (no-posters) but that’s not ideal either.
I can totally understand.Lunalee wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 2:07 pmI'm open to suggestions and to changing my vote. I just don't have a good read on anyone on day one.ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 1:49 pmBased on behavior? I do feel a little weird about Luna buying into the idea of a random lynch so easily. Seems like it could be taking the easy way out. As a matter of policy I’d kinda rather get rid of someone who isn’t attempting contributions (no-posters) but that’s not ideal either.
Both really, but I was referring to the voting for a low-poster.ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 2:07 pmWhich, Luna or a low-poster?Marmot wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 2:06 pmIt's a better vote than random-voting.ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 1:49 pmBased on behavior? I do feel a little weird about Luna buying into the idea of a random lynch so easily. Seems like it could be taking the easy way out. As a matter of policy I’d kinda rather get rid of someone who isn’t attempting contributions (no-posters) but that’s not ideal either.
So who do you recommend we hunt down and strangle today?speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 1:27 pmStatistically, if you look at the odds of a properly balanced mafia game, Town wins by randomization and roles more often than they do if hunting. The latter is susceptible to being fooled. The former is not.ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 1:22 pm I don’t really understand the rationale behind a random vote or the endorsement of it by other players.
However, odds of victory do not matter. We are here to play mafia, not roulette. Victory means nothing if we didn't hunt it down and strangle it.
No. Voting me is not better than random voting. Bad option.Marmot wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 2:09 pmBoth really, but I was referring to the voting for a low-poster.ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 2:07 pmWhich, Luna or a low-poster?Marmot wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 2:06 pmIt's a better vote than random-voting.ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 1:49 pmBased on behavior? I do feel a little weird about Luna buying into the idea of a random lynch so easily. Seems like it could be taking the easy way out. As a matter of policy I’d kinda rather get rid of someone who isn’t attempting contributions (no-posters) but that’s not ideal either.
Why not? You liked the random-voting idea.Lunalee wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 2:11 pmNo. Voting me is not better than random voting. Bad option.Marmot wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 2:09 pmBoth really, but I was referring to the voting for a low-poster.ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 2:07 pmWhich, Luna or a low-poster?Marmot wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 2:06 pmIt's a better vote than random-voting.ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 1:49 pmBased on behavior? I do feel a little weird about Luna buying into the idea of a random lynch so easily. Seems like it could be taking the easy way out. As a matter of policy I’d kinda rather get rid of someone who isn’t attempting contributions (no-posters) but that’s not ideal either.
LOL, I get it. I'm being a hypocrite here. But I'm not a smart lynch option.Marmot wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 2:14 pmWhy not? You liked the random-voting idea.Lunalee wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 2:11 pmNo. Voting me is not better than random voting. Bad option.Marmot wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 2:09 pmBoth really, but I was referring to the voting for a low-poster.ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 2:07 pmWhich, Luna or a low-poster?Marmot wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 2:06 pmIt's a better vote than random-voting.ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 1:49 pmBased on behavior? I do feel a little weird about Luna buying into the idea of a random lynch so easily. Seems like it could be taking the easy way out. As a matter of policy I’d kinda rather get rid of someone who isn’t attempting contributions (no-posters) but that’s not ideal either.
That notion receives a suspect score of ★★★★.
Not that I've seen.
I might agree with you if I had done nothing else in this game, but I have been asking questions which is how I look for things that are suspicious. This was just me telling everyone that I was starting off day 1 with no suspects. You may do this as scum but it doesn't mean I do.speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 1:29 pm Reasons to suspect:
Lamenting the game type in leau of contributing. Something I do often as scum.
TBF I did it as town in U-Pick mafia too.juliets wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 3:02 pmI might agree with you if I had done nothing else in this game, but I have been asking questions which is how I look for things that are suspicious. This was just me telling everyone that I was starting off day 1 with no suspects. You may do this as scum but it doesn't mean I do.speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 1:29 pm Reasons to suspect:
Lamenting the game type in leau of contributing. Something I do often as scum.
Yes, I understand.speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 3:04 pmTBF I did it as town in U-Pick mafia too.juliets wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 3:02 pmI might agree with you if I had done nothing else in this game, but I have been asking questions which is how I look for things that are suspicious. This was just me telling everyone that I was starting off day 1 with no suspects. You may do this as scum but it doesn't mean I do.speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 1:29 pm Reasons to suspect:
Lamenting the game type in leau of contributing. Something I do often as scum.
But such is D1 observations.
Okay. I don't like your list because I'm not at the top.speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 3:11 pm speedchuck
Fractal
Kylemii
sig
Marmot
ColinIsCool
juliets
insertnamehere
Dragon D. Luffy
novaselinenever
lapluie
Turnip Head
Scotty
Vompatti
Long Con
Lunalee
nutella
nijuukyugou
Dom
Pshchow, that's a rainbow list.
Now that I've ordered everyone according to my thoughts and feels, it occurs to me that there is not a lot going on. And given that most of my deliberation was whether to put people above or below the 2 no-shows... there are a lot of town player in this game that are currently inhaling vigorously. Exhale some thoughts guys.
Hate on me for my list so I can collect more data.
Climb.Lunalee wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 3:17 pmOkay. I don't like your list because I'm not at the top.speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 3:11 pm speedchuck
Fractal
Kylemii
sig
Marmot
ColinIsCool
juliets
insertnamehere
Dragon D. Luffy
novaselinenever
lapluie
Turnip Head
Scotty
Vompatti
Long Con
Lunalee
nutella
nijuukyugou
Dom
Pshchow, that's a rainbow list.
Now that I've ordered everyone according to my thoughts and feels, it occurs to me that there is not a lot going on. And given that most of my deliberation was whether to put people above or below the 2 no-shows... there are a lot of town player in this game that are currently inhaling vigorously. Exhale some thoughts guys.
Hate on me for my list so I can collect more data.
How do I know you’re not just doing (as someone so eloquently put it in U-Pick) “pro-town dickslinging” to cultivate a favorable position? Seems a little premature to have a rainbow list, or am I just nitpicking?speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 3:11 pm speedchuck
Fractal
Kylemii
sig
Marmot
ColinIsCool
juliets
insertnamehere
Dragon D. Luffy
novaselinenever
lapluie
Turnip Head
Scotty
Vompatti
Long Con
Lunalee
nutella
nijuukyugou
Dom
Pshchow, that's a rainbow list.
Now that I've ordered everyone according to my thoughts and feels, it occurs to me that there is not a lot going on. And given that most of my deliberation was whether to put people above or below the 2 no-shows... there are a lot of town player in this game that are currently inhaling vigorously. Exhale some thoughts guys.
Hate on me for my list so I can collect more data.
speed I won't hate on you but I'm curious about nutella's placement. Usually I read her as bad even when she's good but this game nothing is pinging me about her. What have you seen that causes you to place her toward the bottom of your list?speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 3:11 pm speedchuck
Fractal
Kylemii
sig
Marmot
ColinIsCool
juliets
insertnamehere
Dragon D. Luffy
novaselinenever
lapluie
Turnip Head
Scotty
Vompatti
Long Con
Lunalee
nutella
nijuukyugou
Dom
Pshchow, that's a rainbow list.
Now that I've ordered everyone according to my thoughts and feels, it occurs to me that there is not a lot going on. And given that most of my deliberation was whether to put people above or below the 2 no-shows... there are a lot of town player in this game that are currently inhaling vigorously. Exhale some thoughts guys.
Hate on me for my list so I can collect more data.
Your kind drives us teachers crazysig wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 11:26 amWell up until this post yeah, now I gotta stop so its not a scum tell.Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 11:05 amHow did you come to believe #1? Are you more likely to read the rules as Mafia?sig wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 11:01 amYeah, it fell flat. I suggested day 1 we look at the people who posted about their scary experience a bit closer for two reasons.
1. Mafia tend to read the rules more imo
2. If just one mafia member read the rules they'd post it in BTSC and the teammates would do it.
Nobody else seemed to think it was a good idea, so I'm keeping it in my back pocket until we get more flips and see if I'm right.![]()
Thanks for pointing it out though!![]()
The idea behind it is that I'm more tactical as scum and wanna look civvie so I read the rules since I care more about looking high speed/sup town.
Now Ik not everyone is like that and some civs read the rules but I've not read the rules as a civ since like my first few games here.![]()
B nicespeedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 3:21 pmClimb.Lunalee wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 3:17 pmOkay. I don't like your list because I'm not at the top.speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 3:11 pm speedchuck
Fractal
Kylemii
sig
Marmot
ColinIsCool
juliets
insertnamehere
Dragon D. Luffy
novaselinenever
lapluie
Turnip Head
Scotty
Vompatti
Long Con
Lunalee
nutella
nijuukyugou
Dom
Pshchow, that's a rainbow list.
Now that I've ordered everyone according to my thoughts and feels, it occurs to me that there is not a lot going on. And given that most of my deliberation was whether to put people above or below the 2 no-shows... there are a lot of town player in this game that are currently inhaling vigorously. Exhale some thoughts guys.
Hate on me for my list so I can collect more data.
Hi DomKing Ramses wrote: ↑Mon Jun 18, 2018 8:54 pm
RETURN THE SLAB OR SUFFER MY CURSE
IDK, it's pretty darn consistent with my last two town games. Granted, I got crap over it then as well.ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 3:21 pm How do I know you’re not just doing (as someone so eloquently put it in U-Pick) “pro-town dickslinging” to cultivate a favorable position? Seems a little premature to have a rainbow list, or am I just nitpicking?
The gung-ho assault on those that didn’t read the rules doesn’t sit well with me.ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 8:39 am Sig has been probably the most vocal player in the thread so far. What do people think of his ideas?
[mention]juliets[/mention]