The Syndicate

This whole "happened in GoC" thing is a bad comparison. That was like day 15. This is gonna be day 2.

And to be quite blunt, anybody who thinks they can pick out and nail mafia from 30 players by reading 50 pages of thread where the only reveal was a civ stump are fooling themselves. Yes, it's possible a mafia gets killed tonight, but it's more likely that it's one/two/more civs. That means we're trying to decide 3 lynch candidates bases on a ton of flimsy speculative evidence.

[mention]Sloonei[/mention], you're bad.

You are super concerned about narrowing the focus for a day, but your focus in this game since joining us has been almost entirely on this damned night poll. Narrowing your current focus on players and reads would be akin to multiplying a fraction by 0.

golden, don't ever make anyone do math in front of me again :/

sorry nana Sloonei, you're gonna be bored tomorrow. bring a newspaper with you.

colonialbob wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 5:29 pm This whole "happened in GoC" thing is a bad comparison. That was like day 15. This is gonna be day 2.

And to be quite blunt, anybody who thinks they can pick out and nail mafia from 30 players by reading 50 pages of thread where the only reveal was a civ stump are fooling themselves. Yes, it's possible a mafia gets killed tonight, but it's more likely that it's one/two/more civs. That means we're trying to decide 3 lynch candidates bases on a ton of flimsy speculative evidence.

I dunno cbob, I'm a supergenius.

But 1 looks dead. I can live with 2.

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 5:27 pm Ok. I fear option 6 now, and I'm not entirely sure that the presented logic against it is even grounded in any reality. I'll vote 2.

As long as it isn't permanent.

2 is fun like 6.

Oh man if it was permanent. All 8 get lynched, then town is all basically stumps until they get night-killed.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 5:31 pm golden, don't ever make anyone do math in front of me again :/

for reals. policy lynch anyone else who starts bringing math and stats to mafia. you're ruining the game!

I like that this game started off with cats and Steven Tyler's nipple and devolved into the most involved mid-game analysis I've ever seen

dunya wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 5:32 pm

Kylemii wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 5:31 pm golden, don't ever make anyone do math in front of me again :/

for reals. policy lynch anyone else who starts bringing math and stats to mafia. you're ruining the game!

No u

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 5:30 pm @Sloonei, you're bad.

You are super concerned about narrowing the focus for a day, but your focus in this game since joining us has been almost entirely on this damned night poll. Narrowing your current focus on players and reads would be akin to multiplying a fraction by 0.

I am worried about the thread in general

dunya wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 5:32 pm

Kylemii wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 5:31 pm golden, don't ever make anyone do math in front of me again :/

for reals. policy lynch anyone else who starts bringing math and stats to mafia. you're ruining the game!

Policy lynches have a sub-random probability of netting a mafia flip, at approximately a rate of approximately 16.3% if the scaling parameter for the game cycle is set to "2".

colonialbob wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 5:33 pm

dunya wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 5:32 pm

Kylemii wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 5:31 pm golden, don't ever make anyone do math in front of me again :/

for reals. policy lynch anyone else who starts bringing math and stats to mafia. you're ruining the game!

No u

I come here to unwind after a hard day at work and uni work. I wanna investigate, theorize and see blood shed. that's why I play mafia. I don't need no stats class.

dunya wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 5:31 pm sorry nana Sloonei, you're gonna be bored tomorrow. bring a newspaper with you.

I’m just going to play Tony Hawk’s Pro Skater and eat pizza with Benjamin.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 5:34 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 5:30 pm Sloonei, you're bad.

You are super concerned about narrowing the focus for a day, but your focus in this game since joining us has been almost entirely on this damned night poll. Narrowing your current focus on players and reads would be akin to multiplying a fraction by 0.

I am worried about the thread in general

Its ok, threads arent what they were in your youth. Its the natural progression of things. Just relax and go eat your dinner, it's almost 5 pm.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 5:34 pm

dunya wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 5:32 pm

Kylemii wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 5:31 pm golden, don't ever make anyone do math in front of me again :/

for reals. policy lynch anyone else who starts bringing math and stats to mafia. you're ruining the game!

Policy lynches have a sub-random probability of netting a mafia flip, at approximately a rate of approximately 16.3% if the scaling parameter for the game cycle is set to "2".

your use of "approximately" twice fucked up my brain.

colonialbob wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 5:35 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 5:34 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 5:30 pm Sloonei, you're bad.

You are super concerned about narrowing the focus for a day, but your focus in this game since joining us has been almost entirely on this damned night poll. Narrowing your current focus on players and reads would be akin to multiplying a fraction by 0.

I am worried about the thread in general

Its ok, threads arent what they were in your youth. Its the natural progression of things. Just relax and go eat your dinner, it's almost 5 pm.

Kids these days

dunya wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 5:36 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 5:34 pm

dunya wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 5:32 pm

Kylemii wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 5:31 pm golden, don't ever make anyone do math in front of me again :/

for reals. policy lynch anyone else who starts bringing math and stats to mafia. you're ruining the game!

Policy lynches have a sub-random probability of netting a mafia flip, at approximately a rate of approximately 16.3% if the scaling parameter for the game cycle is set to "2".

your use of "approximately" twice fucked up my brain.

I ruined everything.

dunya wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 5:35 pm

colonialbob wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 5:33 pm

dunya wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 5:32 pm

Kylemii wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 5:31 pm golden, don't ever make anyone do math in front of me again :/

for reals. policy lynch anyone else who starts bringing math and stats to mafia. you're ruining the game!

No u

I come here to unwind after a hard day at work and uni work. I wanna investigate, theorize and see blood shed. that's why I play mafia. I don't need no stats class.

I was theorizing and making a case. Sorry not sorry

If 2 has any chance of winning Im moving back to 6.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 5:38 pm If 2 has any chance of winning Im moving back to 6.

Me too

There's an interesting distribution of votes going on right now between high posters (mostly on 2) and low posters (almost all of 6).

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 5:33 pm I like that this game started off with cats and Steven Tyler's nipple and devolved into the most involved mid-game analysis I've ever seen

"mid game" it's night 1 lol

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 5:40 pm There's an interesting distribution of votes going on right now between high posters (mostly on 2) and low posters (almost all of 6).

Does this mean anything to you?

Kylemii wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 5:31 pm golden, don't ever make anyone do math in front of me again :/

Kylemii has achieved the hidden win con "ya damn right" and has won the game. Thanks for playing.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 5:41 pm

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 5:33 pm I like that this game started off with cats and Steven Tyler's nipple and devolved into the most involved mid-game analysis I've ever seen

"mid game" it's night 1 lol

I meant, like, while in the game, so excluding meta analysis of games in general.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 5:42 pm

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 5:40 pm There's an interesting distribution of votes going on right now between high posters (mostly on 2) and low posters (almost all of 6).

Does this mean anything to you?

I dunno! Just thought it was worth noticing. 6's proponents are quieter, while 2's have been in the thread fighting each other all night.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 5:30 pm Sloonei, you're bad.

You are super concerned about narrowing the focus for a day, but your focus in this game since joining us has been almost entirely on this damned night poll. Narrowing your current focus on players and reads would be akin to multiplying a fraction by 0.

To be fair, that's the conversation he walked in to when he subbed in.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 5:41 pm

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 5:33 pm I like that this game started off with cats and Steven Tyler's nipple and devolved into the most involved mid-game analysis I've ever seen

"mid game" it's night 1 lol

shockingly depressing reminder tbh

Kylemii wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 5:31 pm golden, don't ever make anyone do math in front of me again :/

I should have known better than to think I could achieve something with rationality and evidence.

I'd recommend one. With one, you force everyone to give reasons for voting two people. With two, you have people giving reasons for voting one of eight people.

But y'all do y'all. I'm up after this inning.

I swut==itched to 2 but hadn't said si yet because I was catching up and I'm stuck using my iPad for the next twenty four hours. Multitasking is harder on my old Gen 2 iPad. Anyway, I don't understand why the conversation continued the way it did after Golden said what he did about writing the poll. Salsa, I havn't read pages 47-51, because I am trying to read the current at the same time as the past posts and it's tough.

[mention]Quin[/mention]
[mention]lapluie[/mention]
[mention]motel room[/mention]
[mention]insertnamehere[/mention]
[mention]Kites[/mention] (HBD!)
[mention]Lilefer[/mention]

Might wanna get in here and hitch to a wagon, I hear they don't like it when you vote off one round these parts

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 5:49 pm I swut==itched to 2 but hadn't said si yet because I was catching up and I'm stuck using my iPad for the next twenty four hours. Multitasking is harder on my old Gen 2 iPad. Anyway, I don't understand why the conversation continued the way it did after Golden said what he did about writing the poll. Salsa, I havn't read pages 47-51, because I am trying to read the current at the same time as the past posts and it's tough.

2 is one of the options I consider to be objectivelt bad foe town. Not by a large margin, but I dont see why there are people voting for it.

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 5:44 pmI dunno! Just thought it was worth noticing. 6's proponents are quieter, while 2's have been in the thread fighting each other all night.

This does not come as a surprise to me at all.

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 4:51 pm

Golden wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 4:48 pm DDL and I will never see eye to eye on anything, but in any event I’ve given my warning with full disclosure and if it isn’t heeded there’s nothing more I can do.

Your "revelation" that you made the night poll makes no difference to any decision-making. I raise my eyebrow at those who just changed their vote because you said that. Wolbre? Juliets? What difference does it make? Were we all supposed to be like "Oh GOLDEN made the poll so let's all choose the option he says!"

I was already thinking about changing my vote from 1 to 2 for various reasons. The fact that Golden made the poll and evidently carefully considered the options when he did so (as evidenced by his adamant stance on option 6), and the fact that he was on 2 just helped me along in my thinking. I was already almost there. And though I'm not caught up it looks like a lot of other people changed off of 1 to 2 as well.

ok i'm off for the rest of the night. bye guys. see you tomorrow if i survive.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 5:50 pm 2 is one of the options I consider to be objectivelt bad foe town. Not by a large margin, but I dont see why there are people voting for it.

And yet option 6, considered by Jay to be 'strong town', has been mathematically proven not to be strong town.

Sometimes what you consider objectively good and objectively bad is just wrong. I think you, Jay and sloonei all have similar perspectives. The reason I'm giving a stats lecture is to challenge those perspectives.

I think, what I can see here, is that everyone would like me to get out the stats to demonstrate why 2 isn't bad for the town... right? I'm reading the room correctly?

cbob already kinda did, to be fair

Ill not be here for EoN so do whatever.

I do not like 2 strategically, but worse than that it just strikes me as terribly boring.

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 5:33 pm I like that this game started off with cats and Steven Tyler's nipple and devolved into the most involved mid-game analysis I've ever seen

we did it fam

Wow you folks have been busy!!

Save some energy for tomorrow. We start ropework bright and early. The only way we're making it up any rock faces is with the right equipment and knowledge. That takes some time and dedication.

But for now, enjoy the rest of your evening!

Golden wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 5:52 pm I think, what I can see here, is that everyone would like me to get out the stats to demonstrate why 2 isn't bad for the town... right? I'm reading the room correctly?

im leaving, do whatever you want now

I'm expecting biblical amounts of carnage toNight.

Turnip Head wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 6:07 pm I'm expecting biblical amounts of carnage toNight.

Just what I was thinking.... maybe tonight will leave us so blasted and broken that the night poll debate will become unimportant... a reminder of better times gone by.

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 6:11 pm

Turnip Head wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 6:07 pm I'm expecting biblical amounts of carnage toNight.

Just what I was thinking.... maybe tonight will leave us so blasted and broken that the night poll debate will become unimportant... a reminder of better times gone by.

I think this is probably true.

This game is designed to be a massive clusterfuck - much more so than like Phenon.

Flash-forward:

Golden wrote: ↑Mon May 21, 2018 4:46 amOh merciful God in Heaven, if only we could just lynch three people today! IT'S THE ONLY WAY!

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 6:16 pm Flash-forward:

Golden wrote: ↑Mon May 21, 2018 4:46 amOh merciful God in Heaven, if only we could just lynch three people today! IT'S THE ONLY WAY!

I know right? I'm not counting it out.

At the end of the day I learned a lesson today. I'm not going to try and do anything sly with the polls, they'll just be what they say they are from now on.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 5:55 pm I do not like 2 strategically, but worse than that it just strikes me as terribly boring.

Sloonei, or whoever you are, I think you are looking at just the group you were in in GOC when the polls were limited. The other group was lively and not boring while considering the reduced poll on their side mostly because of the number of inactive mafia members on your side. The other thing is the poll was reduced to half but the people voting were also reduced to half - here the poll would be reduced but all of us would be involved in the discussion and voting. I think that makes a difference. I don't think tomorrow will be dead if option 2 wins.

Uhhh yeah good luck with that

rip golden tbh