DFS Mafia [ENDGAME]
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- Tangrowth
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Re: DFS Mafia [Day 1]
I have a super busy day ahead of me, so my legacy reads will be coming at you all sometime real soon here. I've been working hard to make sure they're ready just in case I can't really devote any serious time before the deadline.
- Tangrowth
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Re: DFS Mafia [Day 1]
LOCKTOWN SOCKFACE N1 Legacy Rainbow List
LOCKTOWN:
M Plus 7
99% confirmed town:
Russtifinko
98% confirmed town:
JaggedJimmyJay
Tsaiah
abyssum
Strong town:
Kylemii
MacDougall
Moderate town:
RobotNerd277
Slight town:
sprityo
Lunalee
Upper POE pool:
Marmot
Turnip Head
ColinIsCool
Lower POE pool:
DharmaHelper
Note that this is based on some relatively quick analysis and also on my thorough familiarity with the thread.
The way Russ went after Alien is either the greatest bus job I've ever seen or just a townie that was dead fucking right. I'm 99% sure it's the latter especially because I can just picture Russ adamantly arguing all of it in his voice even. I would pretty much just bet my reputation on him being town, but the bussing theory should still be considered just in case, especially because Russ is an incredibly capable player.
I would nearly bet my reputation too on Jay, Tsaiah, and abyssum being town as well. Not only were they all very town independent of their treatment of Alien, but I think when you actually dive into interactions with Alien, they look even better. Jay and Tsaiah both look spewed town by the way Alien treats them with TMI, especially Jay considering Alien buddied him the way he did. I really just don't see either treatment as hard defense of a teammate; it doesn't make sense to me. abyssum's treatment of Alien looks pretty good on her, especially when you check out her reads listl. Now... I've thoroughly considered the universes where each one of these players is a busser, and I still think they're possible even if incredibly unlikely. GTH right now I'd actually say abyssum would be my first choice for that, then Tsaiah, and then Jay. I know that may sound weird given Tsaiah's vote was actually not cast at all for most of the day period and could be bus potential, but I don't see it; she is just pure as fuck in the way she handles Alien just as she is with everything else. And if you go back and look at what abyssum actually said about Alien early in the game it could have been a way for her to defend a teammate and leave herself an open excuse for turning on him later (I'm sure Jay will pull this up in his analysis). Lol, I so don't believe that as I'm typing it though; it feels like suuuuch a stretch. So I think if we live in a crazy universe and a busser somehow sneaked into the top 4 reads here, GTH my money is on abyssum. But I really don't think that's the case at all. I'd say obviously continue to evaluate them for sure but only really worry about them if they're still around late in the game for some reason. You should absolutely still consider all of these players but seriously hesitate before looking to lynch any of them.
I am pretty sure Kyle and Mac are town. Again they both seem town rather independently of Alien, and I think Alien makes them both look better. If you check out the way Alien handles Kyle especially, it definitely reads like TMI. I also do think the way Mac was a serious alternative for D1 looks good on him as well as the way Alien commented on my various arguments re: Mac dogpee; it reads like Alien probably knew Mac was town. In terms of their votes, they are potential bus candidates, but of all the non confirmed bunch, they probably seem the least like bussing to me. It reads to me like both Kyle and Mac legitimately considered my meta comparisons and it informed their perspectives.
Alright, so I think RobotNerd is spewed town (yay TMI) by Alien, and this alone is why she is placed in moderate town. The way Alien talks about Robot also reads very similarly to the way scum Alien talked about a low hanging fruit townie (dichotomousCreator) in wild cards 1, and I originally thought that as well, but then we ended up MLing him anyway because he independently looked scummy. I'd hesitate to make that mistake again here. Nonetheless we must consider Robot on her own merits and consider the possibility that Alien was defending a teammate here.
I feel like these two slight town reads might be key to solving the game. I think sprityo looks pretty good although I am a bit torn on him upon reflection. Alien doesn't really talk about him much. In addition, sprityo might have been a real alternative on D1 but then between him and Mac I feel like Mac was the real alternative here so it makes me wonder if Alien had a teammate under fire on D1 and if that teammate was sprityo. I feel like his vote for Alien could have been a genuine townie just sheeping me and I think I like his thoughts about my case because they're very *upfront*, but I do see bus potential here. It's difficult to make sense of what is there in my mind. Then there's Luna. Luna either was genuinely wrong about Alien or it was a strange attempt at a power play to try to shift onto someone else; I'm torn between worlds here. I also wonder if Alien was shading Luna here which would indicate she was a town alternative but it also could be distancing I think. But I can never read Luna so you all can probably be better here. Unlocking sprityo and Lunalee might be your key to solving the game.
The POE all look bad in some way but none of them are slam dunk by any means. Marmot is an enigma. Turnip Head just looks real bad given his place on the Mac wagon (unless of course Mac actually is scum, then we have an interesting world here that needs to be considered), and Alien doesn't really do much of anything notable with Turnip Head, although what he does say about him in response to other players might be mild TMI. Colin generally looks good on his own merits and he would be placed higher, but Alien's treatment of him is uninspiring to nonexistent; specifically, I feel like Alien just sort of throws Colin in the town group within that four-person grouping in his player salad reads post, and of those names if any one of them is a teammate GTH I think that's the player Alien had the least basis to town read so it's probably Colin. Add to that Colin's vote definitely has bus potential. I think he needs to just be resolved probably. DharmaHelper definitely looks the worst to me although there's still room for a town DH universe still. GTH I think the way Alien treated DH with respect to Jay's wall reads like a teammate talking about another teammate. Otherwise their interactions are super uninspiring but could go either way.
Right now I'm... personally probably 80% sure this POE wins us the game, with potentially one straggler up there in the town reads somewhere. I think a straggler all the way up in the nearly confirmed towns would be a crazy universe for sure but theoretically possible so make sure to at least evaluate further and consider it. I would say prioritize figuring out MacDougall, sprityo, and Lunalee. If you can figure out those players, I think we pretty much have this game in the bag via POE even with some MLs in there. Regardless, we need to make sure to turn over every single stone regardless. I'm not sure I will be around again to participate in that myself, but if I am I will do everything I can as well to ensure this. I need every single one of you townies to band together and accomplish this in case I'm not around. Let's not let a strong start slip away. I believe in us.
Unfortunately, this is all I have time for; I would have pointed out and linked other specific posts but I just didn't get around to them. I may be around later for some other posts, but because I don't know with certainty, I really wanted to make sure I completed this in the event of my impending death tonight. My request if I do die is that you all just please do everything you can. The effort I've seen already is just so commendable from so many of you. Let's keep our eye on the prize. I nonetheless feel confident that you all will. And most importantly, enjoy the game.
And lastly, especially if this happens to be my last post in this game, I just want to emphasize how much of an incredibly enjoyable experience this has been with you all. I really am so beyond elated that our four new players decided to take me up on my offer to play here and that they all enjoy being here. They are definitely at the top of my favorite people I've met via Champs. And otherwise it's been really just amazing to play with all of my Syndicate friends as well, and DH and Russ especially are nice blasts from the past. I really do appreciate and love you all. I love to win mafia games more than nearly anything, but what I love even more about the game is that it gives me an opportunity to interact with all of you, and that is why I sink so much of my time into these games.
Locktown sockface signing out.
LOCKTOWN:
M Plus 7
99% confirmed town:
Russtifinko
98% confirmed town:
JaggedJimmyJay
Tsaiah
abyssum
Strong town:
Kylemii
MacDougall
Moderate town:
RobotNerd277
Slight town:
sprityo
Lunalee
Upper POE pool:
Marmot
Turnip Head
ColinIsCool
Lower POE pool:
DharmaHelper
Note that this is based on some relatively quick analysis and also on my thorough familiarity with the thread.
The way Russ went after Alien is either the greatest bus job I've ever seen or just a townie that was dead fucking right. I'm 99% sure it's the latter especially because I can just picture Russ adamantly arguing all of it in his voice even. I would pretty much just bet my reputation on him being town, but the bussing theory should still be considered just in case, especially because Russ is an incredibly capable player.
I would nearly bet my reputation too on Jay, Tsaiah, and abyssum being town as well. Not only were they all very town independent of their treatment of Alien, but I think when you actually dive into interactions with Alien, they look even better. Jay and Tsaiah both look spewed town by the way Alien treats them with TMI, especially Jay considering Alien buddied him the way he did. I really just don't see either treatment as hard defense of a teammate; it doesn't make sense to me. abyssum's treatment of Alien looks pretty good on her, especially when you check out her reads listl. Now... I've thoroughly considered the universes where each one of these players is a busser, and I still think they're possible even if incredibly unlikely. GTH right now I'd actually say abyssum would be my first choice for that, then Tsaiah, and then Jay. I know that may sound weird given Tsaiah's vote was actually not cast at all for most of the day period and could be bus potential, but I don't see it; she is just pure as fuck in the way she handles Alien just as she is with everything else. And if you go back and look at what abyssum actually said about Alien early in the game it could have been a way for her to defend a teammate and leave herself an open excuse for turning on him later (I'm sure Jay will pull this up in his analysis). Lol, I so don't believe that as I'm typing it though; it feels like suuuuch a stretch. So I think if we live in a crazy universe and a busser somehow sneaked into the top 4 reads here, GTH my money is on abyssum. But I really don't think that's the case at all. I'd say obviously continue to evaluate them for sure but only really worry about them if they're still around late in the game for some reason. You should absolutely still consider all of these players but seriously hesitate before looking to lynch any of them.
I am pretty sure Kyle and Mac are town. Again they both seem town rather independently of Alien, and I think Alien makes them both look better. If you check out the way Alien handles Kyle especially, it definitely reads like TMI. I also do think the way Mac was a serious alternative for D1 looks good on him as well as the way Alien commented on my various arguments re: Mac dogpee; it reads like Alien probably knew Mac was town. In terms of their votes, they are potential bus candidates, but of all the non confirmed bunch, they probably seem the least like bussing to me. It reads to me like both Kyle and Mac legitimately considered my meta comparisons and it informed their perspectives.
Alright, so I think RobotNerd is spewed town (yay TMI) by Alien, and this alone is why she is placed in moderate town. The way Alien talks about Robot also reads very similarly to the way scum Alien talked about a low hanging fruit townie (dichotomousCreator) in wild cards 1, and I originally thought that as well, but then we ended up MLing him anyway because he independently looked scummy. I'd hesitate to make that mistake again here. Nonetheless we must consider Robot on her own merits and consider the possibility that Alien was defending a teammate here.
I feel like these two slight town reads might be key to solving the game. I think sprityo looks pretty good although I am a bit torn on him upon reflection. Alien doesn't really talk about him much. In addition, sprityo might have been a real alternative on D1 but then between him and Mac I feel like Mac was the real alternative here so it makes me wonder if Alien had a teammate under fire on D1 and if that teammate was sprityo. I feel like his vote for Alien could have been a genuine townie just sheeping me and I think I like his thoughts about my case because they're very *upfront*, but I do see bus potential here. It's difficult to make sense of what is there in my mind. Then there's Luna. Luna either was genuinely wrong about Alien or it was a strange attempt at a power play to try to shift onto someone else; I'm torn between worlds here. I also wonder if Alien was shading Luna here which would indicate she was a town alternative but it also could be distancing I think. But I can never read Luna so you all can probably be better here. Unlocking sprityo and Lunalee might be your key to solving the game.
The POE all look bad in some way but none of them are slam dunk by any means. Marmot is an enigma. Turnip Head just looks real bad given his place on the Mac wagon (unless of course Mac actually is scum, then we have an interesting world here that needs to be considered), and Alien doesn't really do much of anything notable with Turnip Head, although what he does say about him in response to other players might be mild TMI. Colin generally looks good on his own merits and he would be placed higher, but Alien's treatment of him is uninspiring to nonexistent; specifically, I feel like Alien just sort of throws Colin in the town group within that four-person grouping in his player salad reads post, and of those names if any one of them is a teammate GTH I think that's the player Alien had the least basis to town read so it's probably Colin. Add to that Colin's vote definitely has bus potential. I think he needs to just be resolved probably. DharmaHelper definitely looks the worst to me although there's still room for a town DH universe still. GTH I think the way Alien treated DH with respect to Jay's wall reads like a teammate talking about another teammate. Otherwise their interactions are super uninspiring but could go either way.
Right now I'm... personally probably 80% sure this POE wins us the game, with potentially one straggler up there in the town reads somewhere. I think a straggler all the way up in the nearly confirmed towns would be a crazy universe for sure but theoretically possible so make sure to at least evaluate further and consider it. I would say prioritize figuring out MacDougall, sprityo, and Lunalee. If you can figure out those players, I think we pretty much have this game in the bag via POE even with some MLs in there. Regardless, we need to make sure to turn over every single stone regardless. I'm not sure I will be around again to participate in that myself, but if I am I will do everything I can as well to ensure this. I need every single one of you townies to band together and accomplish this in case I'm not around. Let's not let a strong start slip away. I believe in us.
Unfortunately, this is all I have time for; I would have pointed out and linked other specific posts but I just didn't get around to them. I may be around later for some other posts, but because I don't know with certainty, I really wanted to make sure I completed this in the event of my impending death tonight. My request if I do die is that you all just please do everything you can. The effort I've seen already is just so commendable from so many of you. Let's keep our eye on the prize. I nonetheless feel confident that you all will. And most importantly, enjoy the game.
And lastly, especially if this happens to be my last post in this game, I just want to emphasize how much of an incredibly enjoyable experience this has been with you all. I really am so beyond elated that our four new players decided to take me up on my offer to play here and that they all enjoy being here. They are definitely at the top of my favorite people I've met via Champs. And otherwise it's been really just amazing to play with all of my Syndicate friends as well, and DH and Russ especially are nice blasts from the past. I really do appreciate and love you all. I love to win mafia games more than nearly anything, but what I love even more about the game is that it gives me an opportunity to interact with all of you, and that is why I sink so much of my time into these games.
Locktown sockface signing out.
- ColinIsCool
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- JaggedJimmyJay
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Re: DFS Mafia [Day 1]
Interactions of alien and Marmot
Things alien said to/about Marmot
Poop.
He didn't even try to fake a GTH read on Marmot.
~~~
Things Marmot said to/about alien
I still don't know if these were meant to be real reads or just fantasy projections. But okay.
~~~
Conclusion
There's nothing to talk about here. Marmot remains a candidate by process of elimination.
Things alien said to/about Marmot
Spoiler: show
Poop.
Spoiler: show
He didn't even try to fake a GTH read on Marmot.
~~~
Things Marmot said to/about alien
Spoiler: show
I still don't know if these were meant to be real reads or just fantasy projections. But okay.
~~~
Conclusion
There's nothing to talk about here. Marmot remains a candidate by process of elimination.
Spoiler: show
Re: DFS Mafia [Day 1]
Lunalee wrote: ↑Thu Aug 16, 2018 4:09 pmThat wasn't my intent, but thanks.Infected_alien8_ wrote: ↑Thu Aug 16, 2018 4:08 pmNot gonna lie this defence of me wins you over a bit to me lolLunalee wrote: ↑Thu Aug 16, 2018 4:06 pm I don't feel good about an Infected Alien lynch today. He has been engaging the thread and seems to be trying to learn the tone of this site while attempting to figure out who may be bad. And I don't blame him for it. @ M Plus 7 , @ JaggedJimmyJay @ Russtifinko do you have any suspicions other than Alien?![]()
Just been staring at this for the last few minutes
This is when alien flips his read on Luna
i think
maybe
i can hear the echoes of alien's mind yelling AN ALLY! I'LL TAKE IT from the edges of this post
Re: DFS Mafia [Day 1]
OMG
I JUST REALIZED THERE WERE TWO MORE PAGES OF SMILEYS

I JUST REALIZED THERE WERE TWO MORE PAGES OF SMILEYS

Re: DFS Mafia [Day 1]
You're correct. Alien "suspected" me as scum until I stuck up for him. I guess I was just too nice for him to keep lying about me like that.Tsaiah wrote: ↑Fri Aug 17, 2018 3:42 pmLunalee wrote: ↑Thu Aug 16, 2018 4:09 pmThat wasn't my intent, but thanks.Infected_alien8_ wrote: ↑Thu Aug 16, 2018 4:08 pmNot gonna lie this defence of me wins you over a bit to me lolLunalee wrote: ↑Thu Aug 16, 2018 4:06 pm I don't feel good about an Infected Alien lynch today. He has been engaging the thread and seems to be trying to learn the tone of this site while attempting to figure out who may be bad. And I don't blame him for it. @ M Plus 7 , @ JaggedJimmyJay @ Russtifinko do you have any suspicions other than Alien?![]()
Just been staring at this for the last few minutes
This is when alien flips his read on Luna
i think
maybe
i can hear the echoes of alien's mind yelling AN ALLY! I'LL TAKE IT from the edges of this post

Luna's Wins/Losses
Spoiler: show
- JaggedJimmyJay
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Re: DFS Mafia [Day 1]
Spoiler: show
- JaggedJimmyJay
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Re: DFS Mafia [Day 1]
Interactions of alien and Lunalee
Things alien said to/about Luna
alien's initial handling of Luna was to cast suspicion upon her. This doesn't mean a lot to me in isolation, so I'll view the progression.
I asked for alien's second biggest suspect behind MP and he answered with Luna, including that big BUT sandwich to temper the read. He was at least not comfortable answering the question.
When I prodded him for more, he was still playing the waiting game on Luna. If nothing else he seems quite patient with her.
This is a tiny sort of progression, but loses much of its value in its vagueness. Without digging around in alien's ISO (and even when digging to some extent), it isn't clear to the reader exactly what this means. His read on Luna is the same. The same as what? When was this standard of sameness established? Is she a serious lynch prospect, and do alien's posts promote that suspicion? To this point the answer is no. We'll see how it develops.
In some ways the impression I get from alien's post here is that it fits the very motivations he is attributing to Lunalee instead. He is struggling to find suspects to talk about other than MP, and he is cramming Lunalee into that secondary role to the best of his ability with bunk rationale. In that regard it could be decent for Lunalee, though I am concerned that by this point alien would have already realized some urgency about distancing from his team -- he was under fire.
At this point it just looks like alien is farting out shade. alien isn't pleased with her base take on anything, be in the TH read or distinctions between Mac and sprityo. I think it's looking a bit better for Lunalee.
This one seems to beg for a specific accusation which can be specifically defended, a more urgent need when dealing with a civilian whose vote can't be so easily influenced as a teammate's.
Heh. For someone else's defense of Luna to be TMI, Luna must be town. That'd be TMI.
There's some WIFOM in that, but I don't care.
He's kinda using Luna as a platform by which he can pump out posts here.
Color coded. It's interesting that alien claimed that Lunalee's reads appeared forced, but also bore a better tone -- a difficult combination for anyone to achieve. The wrong sort of forced reads tend to imply a bad tone. As such I think alien is conscious of how difficult a time he is having fabricating the suspicion because Lunalee just sounds fine to the honest ear. Decent look for her.
When I promoted alien to provide post evidence that he had more than one conclusive, hedge-free suspect apart from MP, he brought he this to display his Lunalee suspicion. He wanted it to be clear that he did indeed, at some point or another, view Lunalee with such suspicion that no disclaimer was necessary.
The problem was, a disclaimer came soon after. "I'm waiting to see more from her". I'm not sure this says much particularly about Luna herself though. I'll leave y'all to judge.
This strikes me as an important moment. Towards the end of Day 1, Luna moved to a defensive posture for alien (and he responded in kind here). If their intention throughout Days 0 and 1 had been to distance from each other, then I don't know why they'd throw that all in the trash now.
One might suggest that it was a concerted effort to rescue alien from the lynch which is plausible enough. I don't know what the poll looked like at this precise moment though and cannot really investigate that notion with precision. Nonetheless, that potential must inherently temper any civilian credit awarded.
~~~
Things Luna said to/about alien not already covered
She was sharply critical of him in her first reads list.
I'm not sure what mafia utility is gained from making this prediction pre-flip. It may not need that though. It's just an expansion of the justification for a Mac vote.
~~~
Conclusion
This one is a difficult clash of two worlds:
1. At numerous isolated moments, it looks like alien and Lunalee are authentically separated from one another.
2. The full progression of their interaction is not ideal. They were mutually suspicious of each other for nearly the entire game so far, but as far as I can tell never voted for one another even once. Then when push came to shove and it was time to lynch alien, Luna settled on Mac. In a vacuum that's just not great.
I think she remains a POE prospect. I welcome debate.
Things alien said to/about Luna
Spoiler: show
alien's initial handling of Luna was to cast suspicion upon her. This doesn't mean a lot to me in isolation, so I'll view the progression.
Spoiler: show
I asked for alien's second biggest suspect behind MP and he answered with Luna, including that big BUT sandwich to temper the read. He was at least not comfortable answering the question.
Spoiler: show
When I prodded him for more, he was still playing the waiting game on Luna. If nothing else he seems quite patient with her.
Spoiler: show
This is a tiny sort of progression, but loses much of its value in its vagueness. Without digging around in alien's ISO (and even when digging to some extent), it isn't clear to the reader exactly what this means. His read on Luna is the same. The same as what? When was this standard of sameness established? Is she a serious lynch prospect, and do alien's posts promote that suspicion? To this point the answer is no. We'll see how it develops.
Spoiler: show
In some ways the impression I get from alien's post here is that it fits the very motivations he is attributing to Lunalee instead. He is struggling to find suspects to talk about other than MP, and he is cramming Lunalee into that secondary role to the best of his ability with bunk rationale. In that regard it could be decent for Lunalee, though I am concerned that by this point alien would have already realized some urgency about distancing from his team -- he was under fire.
Spoiler: show
At this point it just looks like alien is farting out shade. alien isn't pleased with her base take on anything, be in the TH read or distinctions between Mac and sprityo. I think it's looking a bit better for Lunalee.
Spoiler: show
This one seems to beg for a specific accusation which can be specifically defended, a more urgent need when dealing with a civilian whose vote can't be so easily influenced as a teammate's.
Spoiler: show
Heh. For someone else's defense of Luna to be TMI, Luna must be town. That'd be TMI.

There's some WIFOM in that, but I don't care.
Spoiler: show
He's kinda using Luna as a platform by which he can pump out posts here.
Spoiler: show
Color coded. It's interesting that alien claimed that Lunalee's reads appeared forced, but also bore a better tone -- a difficult combination for anyone to achieve. The wrong sort of forced reads tend to imply a bad tone. As such I think alien is conscious of how difficult a time he is having fabricating the suspicion because Lunalee just sounds fine to the honest ear. Decent look for her.
When I promoted alien to provide post evidence that he had more than one conclusive, hedge-free suspect apart from MP, he brought he this to display his Lunalee suspicion. He wanted it to be clear that he did indeed, at some point or another, view Lunalee with such suspicion that no disclaimer was necessary.
The problem was, a disclaimer came soon after. "I'm waiting to see more from her". I'm not sure this says much particularly about Luna herself though. I'll leave y'all to judge.
Spoiler: show
This strikes me as an important moment. Towards the end of Day 1, Luna moved to a defensive posture for alien (and he responded in kind here). If their intention throughout Days 0 and 1 had been to distance from each other, then I don't know why they'd throw that all in the trash now.
One might suggest that it was a concerted effort to rescue alien from the lynch which is plausible enough. I don't know what the poll looked like at this precise moment though and cannot really investigate that notion with precision. Nonetheless, that potential must inherently temper any civilian credit awarded.
~~~
Things Luna said to/about alien not already covered
Spoiler: show
She was sharply critical of him in her first reads list.
Spoiler: show

Spoiler: show
I'm not sure what mafia utility is gained from making this prediction pre-flip. It may not need that though. It's just an expansion of the justification for a Mac vote.
~~~
Conclusion
This one is a difficult clash of two worlds:
1. At numerous isolated moments, it looks like alien and Lunalee are authentically separated from one another.
2. The full progression of their interaction is not ideal. They were mutually suspicious of each other for nearly the entire game so far, but as far as I can tell never voted for one another even once. Then when push came to shove and it was time to lynch alien, Luna settled on Mac. In a vacuum that's just not great.
I think she remains a POE prospect. I welcome debate.
Spoiler: show
- Marmot
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Re: DFS Mafia [Day 1]
JaggedImmyPoe is back in business.

Banners and Stuff
Spoiler: show
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?
The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
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Re: DFS Mafia [Day 1]
Let's go, gang. "Night phase" doesn't mean break time. Want to win? Play to win.
I will keep doing my work as time permits. Any extended period of dead-thread is an opportunity for the mafia team to catch their breath. Deny them that privilege.
I will keep doing my work as time permits. Any extended period of dead-thread is an opportunity for the mafia team to catch their breath. Deny them that privilege.
Spoiler: show
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Re: DFS Mafia [Day 1]
I like the Luna casing. I feel better about her looking at the last post where she predicts a town flip, but my gut says she was hoping for a misdirected lynch onto Mac the whole time and made that post exactly so we’d draw that conclusion from it. Gotta dig some more.

Re: DFS Mafia [Day 1]
what's up everyone
i had a lovely day of cleaning and i've just made some banana bread, which is Very Exciting
i had a lovely day of cleaning and i've just made some banana bread, which is Very Exciting
- Marmot
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Re: DFS Mafia [Day 1]
takes 2 slices of banana bread

Banners and Stuff
Spoiler: show
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?
The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
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Re: DFS Mafia [Day 1]
Interaction of alien and RobotNerd277
Things alien said to/about Robot
I feel like an arse turning the niceties into Mafia shit, but I am JaggedJimmyJay and I was born with a certain combination of chromosomes which leave me no choice. I don't believe alien posted this sort of greeting to others, at least not in an isolated post like this, despite having just played with MP and abyssum in the previous game at the least. So I get this vibe:
Hello fellow player in this game who I have played with before and who is definitely not on my mafia team at all as can be clearly seen by the fact that I am saying this right here in the thread instead of in the behind-the-scenes chat area this is a run-on sentence.
It's a stretch I know, but you get the kernels of thought as they appear in my brain. Enjoy.
This was in response to one of Robot's early catch-up efforts, when she voiced some suspicion of MP and then retracted it. To me this just looks like alien taking an opportunity to carry on the dialogue he had selected to dominate his ISO, and it needn't reflect better or worse upon Robot.
I'm getting tired of quoting this post and typing "Poop".
Poop.
More filler questions.
He prods MP for a Robot take. He hadn't provided a take of his own yet. Meh.
It's back! He said it again!
Here alien is chatting away at Robot about Luna, expanding on his reads on the latter, all in a neutral tone re: Robot. That is a bit of a trend here. I am not seeing much motion at all to indicate how alien feels about Robot's play.
This exchange bugs me. Robot's assertion that alien is digging when there's nothing to dig ought to be viewed as an accusation, but the tone and presentation of the statement don't carry that severity. alien's response is so basic too, like something learned from an Effective Communication seminar. Repeat the words of the person you are speaking with when you are asking for clarification.
This again. "Other people: tell me about Robot." alien still hasn't given a read.

alien felt MP was off-meta and that turned into his only fierce suspicion of the game. He says Robot might also be off-meta and isn't "sure whether that's significant for her". Bad look.
The seminar continues. alien uses Robot as a catalyst to carry on his poking of Lunalee.
Color coding engaged. This is one of the biggest Belgian waffles in alien's ISO. It's... everywhere. The read is omnipresent. I hate it. It's not just a matter of the blurb being all over the place either, it's also the placement of the read. We've seen now that alien has directly interacted with Robot on a few occasions and asked other players to discuss Robot too. And all of that leads to a freaking "neutral" read. That's really gross.
Here, have a siren.gif:
MP wants to talk about Robot, and alien dips his tootsies into the water... before immediately retracting them from the terrible cold and burying them in a warm towel.
Now Robot is on-meta.
It's here! It's right here! Everyone look! It's a read!
~~~
Things Robot said about/to alien
I extracted this from a larger post to focus on relevant material.
It's awful. Robot meandered around on the things alien was doing in the form of commentary (no stances taken). She parlayed that dialogue into a focus instead on MP, based upon alien's grievances. And it's not just alien! Colin agrees too! Hah! Validation! The window of opportunity is open for sure!
Robot chats a bit with alien about sprityo, and the content intrigues me for one reason. She is displeased at the one-track focus of suspicion sprityo had to offer (on Mac presumably), but didn't seem to note that she was talking to someone else with a one-track focus of suspicion (alien on MP).
Aaauughhhhh. He's YELLOW. Yeesh!
Also note the blurb. Alien is "annoying". He isn't suspicious. He's annoying. Nope. Nope.
Okay, but, like... why ain't you done already did that?
~~~
Conclusion
[VOTE: RobotNerd277] aubergine
Things alien said to/about Robot
Spoiler: show
I feel like an arse turning the niceties into Mafia shit, but I am JaggedJimmyJay and I was born with a certain combination of chromosomes which leave me no choice. I don't believe alien posted this sort of greeting to others, at least not in an isolated post like this, despite having just played with MP and abyssum in the previous game at the least. So I get this vibe:
Hello fellow player in this game who I have played with before and who is definitely not on my mafia team at all as can be clearly seen by the fact that I am saying this right here in the thread instead of in the behind-the-scenes chat area this is a run-on sentence.
It's a stretch I know, but you get the kernels of thought as they appear in my brain. Enjoy.
Spoiler: show
This was in response to one of Robot's early catch-up efforts, when she voiced some suspicion of MP and then retracted it. To me this just looks like alien taking an opportunity to carry on the dialogue he had selected to dominate his ISO, and it needn't reflect better or worse upon Robot.
Spoiler: show
I'm getting tired of quoting this post and typing "Poop".
Poop.
Spoiler: show
More filler questions.
Spoiler: show
He prods MP for a Robot take. He hadn't provided a take of his own yet. Meh.
Spoiler: show
It's back! He said it again!

Spoiler: show
Here alien is chatting away at Robot about Luna, expanding on his reads on the latter, all in a neutral tone re: Robot. That is a bit of a trend here. I am not seeing much motion at all to indicate how alien feels about Robot's play.
Spoiler: show
This exchange bugs me. Robot's assertion that alien is digging when there's nothing to dig ought to be viewed as an accusation, but the tone and presentation of the statement don't carry that severity. alien's response is so basic too, like something learned from an Effective Communication seminar. Repeat the words of the person you are speaking with when you are asking for clarification.
Spoiler: show
This again. "Other people: tell me about Robot." alien still hasn't given a read.
Spoiler: show

alien felt MP was off-meta and that turned into his only fierce suspicion of the game. He says Robot might also be off-meta and isn't "sure whether that's significant for her". Bad look.
Spoiler: show
The seminar continues. alien uses Robot as a catalyst to carry on his poking of Lunalee.
Spoiler: show
Color coding engaged. This is one of the biggest Belgian waffles in alien's ISO. It's... everywhere. The read is omnipresent. I hate it. It's not just a matter of the blurb being all over the place either, it's also the placement of the read. We've seen now that alien has directly interacted with Robot on a few occasions and asked other players to discuss Robot too. And all of that leads to a freaking "neutral" read. That's really gross.
Here, have a siren.gif:
Spoiler: show
Spoiler: show
MP wants to talk about Robot, and alien dips his tootsies into the water... before immediately retracting them from the terrible cold and burying them in a warm towel.
Spoiler: show
Now Robot is on-meta.

Spoiler: show
It's here! It's right here! Everyone look! It's a read!
~~~
Things Robot said about/to alien
Spoiler: show
I extracted this from a larger post to focus on relevant material.
It's awful. Robot meandered around on the things alien was doing in the form of commentary (no stances taken). She parlayed that dialogue into a focus instead on MP, based upon alien's grievances. And it's not just alien! Colin agrees too! Hah! Validation! The window of opportunity is open for sure!

Spoiler: show
Robot chats a bit with alien about sprityo, and the content intrigues me for one reason. She is displeased at the one-track focus of suspicion sprityo had to offer (on Mac presumably), but didn't seem to note that she was talking to someone else with a one-track focus of suspicion (alien on MP).
Spoiler: show
Aaauughhhhh. He's YELLOW. Yeesh!
Also note the blurb. Alien is "annoying". He isn't suspicious. He's annoying. Nope. Nope.
Spoiler: show
Okay, but, like... why ain't you done already did that?
~~~
Conclusion
[VOTE: RobotNerd277] aubergine
Spoiler: show
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Re: DFS Mafia [Day 1]
Clearly we don't agree. I hope we can find time to talk about that.M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 17, 2018 1:25 pm Alright, so I think RobotNerd is spewed town (yay TMI) by Alien, and this alone is why she is placed in moderate town. The way Alien talks about Robot also reads very similarly to the way scum Alien talked about a low hanging fruit townie (dichotomousCreator) in wild cards 1, and I originally thought that as well, but then we ended up MLing him anyway because he independently looked scummy. I'd hesitate to make that mistake again here. Nonetheless we must consider Robot on her own merits and consider the possibility that Alien was defending a teammate here.
Spoiler: show
Re: DFS Mafia [Day 1]
[mention]M Plus 7[/mention] wait wait you think that robot is similar to dC? how so?
Re: DFS Mafia [Day 1]
i think Luna should remain in the POE, but the way that Alien was criticizing her reads list doesn't read much like two teammates to me. i'd say it's less likely than other candidates
Alien was criticizing luna in the sense that he was saying her reads aren't genuine, and he tried to couch that criticism by saying her suspicion on Turnip Head wasn't genuine and was probably faked. notably he didn't really make any attempt to engage her on it. there isn't a lot of room there for Luna to make a response, because Alien has already dismissed the sincerity/validity of Luna's thoughts--it's the kind of comment that is kind of hard to shake because you can just keep saying "that's not real, you don't seem genuine" to me as many times as you want.
it's possible that that's a teammate interaction, but it reminds me more of the way Alien was jumping on MP7 (who's basically clear now) and kylemii (who i think is town) and refusing to progress those reads.
Alien was criticizing luna in the sense that he was saying her reads aren't genuine, and he tried to couch that criticism by saying her suspicion on Turnip Head wasn't genuine and was probably faked. notably he didn't really make any attempt to engage her on it. there isn't a lot of room there for Luna to make a response, because Alien has already dismissed the sincerity/validity of Luna's thoughts--it's the kind of comment that is kind of hard to shake because you can just keep saying "that's not real, you don't seem genuine" to me as many times as you want.
it's possible that that's a teammate interaction, but it reminds me more of the way Alien was jumping on MP7 (who's basically clear now) and kylemii (who i think is town) and refusing to progress those reads.
Re: DFS Mafia [Day 1]
and i know that Alien technically progressed his read on Luna, but it was late and Alien was in much greater danger of being lynched when it occurred. i think there's a good chance he never would've let go on that one if he wasn't getting lynched.
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Re: DFS Mafia [Day 1]
I see I’ve been mentioned here.
I’m still busy but I’ll check Jay’s Robot thing by phone soon.
Hopefully before deadline I’ll have a chance to actually dig into more and offer a new rainbow list, but no promises.
I’m still busy but I’ll check Jay’s Robot thing by phone soon.
Hopefully before deadline I’ll have a chance to actually dig into more and offer a new rainbow list, but no promises.
Re: DFS Mafia [Day 1]
honestly, not sure yet
i think i need to ISO Robot myself instead of just reading the interactions, but i did go through your post. overall, i think Robot/Alien is a more likely pairing than Luna/Alien; the way that alien engaged robot on things seemed more...intentional/careful somehow. he tiptoed around ever calling them much of anything until the last GTH reads where he called them town, which stands in contrast to his willingness to call basically everything from certain players off, or a bad look, or ping-y.
there's nothing in there that makes Robot automatically scum, but barring some nugget of pure towniness shining through in their ISO or D2 play, they're not moving very far up in my reads
Re: DFS Mafia [Day 1]
like Alien said that i seemed off when i was questioning him and seemed to want to hang onto that notion
it took a while for him to shake it, and it probably only really changed when the tide of the thread was moving toward me being town rather than slightly towny question mark
i don't see anything similar happening with Robot, and there's not really anything in the thread mood that accounts for that
it took a while for him to shake it, and it probably only really changed when the tide of the thread was moving toward me being town rather than slightly towny question mark
i don't see anything similar happening with Robot, and there's not really anything in the thread mood that accounts for that
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Re: DFS Mafia [Day 1]
I agree. Instead of a point of dialogue for alien to revisit repeatedly (as numerous players became through Day 1), Robot seemed an extraneous variable that he'd only mention at random -- never with a clear stance.abyssum wrote: ↑Fri Aug 17, 2018 7:54 pm like Alien said that i seemed off when i was questioning him and seemed to want to hang onto that notion
it took a while for him to shake it, and it probably only really changed when the tide of the thread was moving toward me being town rather than slightly towny question mark
i don't see anything similar happening with Robot, and there's not really anything in the thread mood that accounts for that
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Re: DFS Mafia [Day 1]
Let me check out the analysis now. Thanks for doing that Jay.
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Re: DFS Mafia [Day 1]
Clearly I didn’t do enough exhaustive research between a Alien and Robot myself because now that I’m looking already...
I am reminded of the infamous post I’m WC1 when Alien went out of his way to say hi and such... TO HIS SCUMMATES
I am reminded of the infamous post I’m WC1 when Alien went out of his way to say hi and such... TO HIS SCUMMATES
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Re: DFS Mafia [Day 1]
Yeah robot needs to be in the POE. The qualifying statements and lack of opinions early are bad.
Still reading off and on for a bit here.
I’ll try to see if I can back to laptop before deadline but yeah.
Still reading off and on for a bit here.
I’ll try to see if I can back to laptop before deadline but yeah.
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Re: DFS Mafia [Day 1]
I'm here for the banana bread 

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Re: DFS Mafia [Day 1]
I think from now on I’m just going to lynch new people. Seems to be a compelling strategy so far here.

Re: DFS Mafia [Day 1]
two or four pieces? consider carefully!
Re: DFS Mafia [Day 1]
no uJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Aug 17, 2018 2:56 amhello abyssum please play every game you're greatabyssum wrote: ↑Fri Aug 17, 2018 12:15 am o right open nights are like...you don't have to post game-relevant content. i'm gonna introduce myself bc of that and bc you all seem like friendly people.
hello i am abyssum and you can call me aby. half the players here make me feel like a mafia newbie and that's funny. i like MP7 and think he's a swell guy. the rest of you seem like swell people as well, which makes sense! i'm on central time and i'm kinda splitting my time between housework, the x-files, and this game
overall a really enjoyable wind-down from wildcards, actually. i'm having a really good time here <3
now i'm gonna get in bed and enjoy the relative illusion of freedom
v///v
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Re: DFS Mafia [Day 1]
[mention]abyssum[/mention] just one ty ty
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Re: DFS Mafia [Day 1]
Interactions of alien and Tsaiah
Things alien said to/about Tsaiah
All of this is extracted from alien's first post in the thread. I have highlighted the material pertaining specifically to Tsaiah. It's a curious set of comments in that alien gave MP a lot of grief for giving Tsaiah a read of "purity" on a few occasions before himself calling one of her reads lists "genuine" himself. He seemed to want to acknowledge that Tsaiah looked good in this post, but not give MP any credit for having that perspective. I'm not entirely sure what this says if anything about Tsaiah, but perhaps it will loom larger in later developments.
He's essentially giving Tsaiah the same credit MP was giving her and then tacking on an obligatory disclaimer to reduce the strength of the read. In some ways this mirrors his handling of me, as MP was giving me early town points and alien was offering the same responses: "you shouldn't have a strong town read on Jay already / I have a town read on Jay but only slight because blah blah". That's a nice thing for Tsaiah.
One of the more obvious benefits a mafioso can enjoy with things like this is to sever the connection of trust being forged between two civilians and inhibit game-solving teamwork. Whether alien had that specific intent I cannot say, but the possibility is there in a world where Tsaiah is a civilian. He'd be trying to prevent Tsaiah from responding to MP with the same positive read or confidence that she was receiving from him -- planting the seed of doubt.
alien went to a lot of trouble to assuage the concerns presented to him by Tsaiah, going comment by comment to explain himself in a dissected, precise format. I think the look of it is positive for Tsaiah, in that I have some doubt that this exchange bears quite the same appearance or thoroughness if alien is talking to someone who already knows the answers.
It seems to me that alien decided there was no case he could hope to build on two people: Tsaiah and I.
When I poked him about his hedginess, he provided counterexamples. Among them was his strong civilian reads on Tsaiah.
This doesn't look like an interaction between teammates to me.
~~~
Things Tsaiah said to/about alien not already covered
Her first impression of alien was incorrect. Not necessarily a big deal.
Tsaiah read through both of alien's MU games and determined that his DFS self existed somewhere in between those two. She voiced suspicions that pretty well aligned with those stated by others before -- this came quite late in Day 1.
~~~
Conclusion
When there's something to talk about, it's generally something good. I'd be comfortable with more data here. The biggest problem is that Tsaiah's longest period of absence from the thread coincides pretty cleanly with the development of the cases against alien. That might be bad luck. I think this is a read I will find more compelling outside the arena of the interactivity.
Things alien said to/about Tsaiah
Spoiler: show
All of this is extracted from alien's first post in the thread. I have highlighted the material pertaining specifically to Tsaiah. It's a curious set of comments in that alien gave MP a lot of grief for giving Tsaiah a read of "purity" on a few occasions before himself calling one of her reads lists "genuine" himself. He seemed to want to acknowledge that Tsaiah looked good in this post, but not give MP any credit for having that perspective. I'm not entirely sure what this says if anything about Tsaiah, but perhaps it will loom larger in later developments.
Spoiler: show
He's essentially giving Tsaiah the same credit MP was giving her and then tacking on an obligatory disclaimer to reduce the strength of the read. In some ways this mirrors his handling of me, as MP was giving me early town points and alien was offering the same responses: "you shouldn't have a strong town read on Jay already / I have a town read on Jay but only slight because blah blah". That's a nice thing for Tsaiah.
Spoiler: show
One of the more obvious benefits a mafioso can enjoy with things like this is to sever the connection of trust being forged between two civilians and inhibit game-solving teamwork. Whether alien had that specific intent I cannot say, but the possibility is there in a world where Tsaiah is a civilian. He'd be trying to prevent Tsaiah from responding to MP with the same positive read or confidence that she was receiving from him -- planting the seed of doubt.
Spoiler: show
alien went to a lot of trouble to assuage the concerns presented to him by Tsaiah, going comment by comment to explain himself in a dissected, precise format. I think the look of it is positive for Tsaiah, in that I have some doubt that this exchange bears quite the same appearance or thoroughness if alien is talking to someone who already knows the answers.
Spoiler: show
It seems to me that alien decided there was no case he could hope to build on two people: Tsaiah and I.
When I poked him about his hedginess, he provided counterexamples. Among them was his strong civilian reads on Tsaiah.
Spoiler: show
This doesn't look like an interaction between teammates to me.
~~~
Things Tsaiah said to/about alien not already covered
Spoiler: show
Her first impression of alien was incorrect. Not necessarily a big deal.
Spoiler: show
Tsaiah read through both of alien's MU games and determined that his DFS self existed somewhere in between those two. She voiced suspicions that pretty well aligned with those stated by others before -- this came quite late in Day 1.
~~~
Conclusion
When there's something to talk about, it's generally something good. I'd be comfortable with more data here. The biggest problem is that Tsaiah's longest period of absence from the thread coincides pretty cleanly with the development of the cases against alien. That might be bad luck. I think this is a read I will find more compelling outside the arena of the interactivity.
Spoiler: show
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Re: DFS Mafia [Day 1]
Someone please @tag me when we get the Cliff's Notes version of JimmyJay's research paper
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Re: DFS Mafia [Day 1]
They all have a little conclusion at the end you fart.Turnip Head wrote: ↑Fri Aug 17, 2018 8:21 pm Someone please @tag me when we get the Cliff's Notes version of JimmyJay's research paper
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Re: DFS Mafia [Day 1]
Lynch Robot.ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Fri Aug 17, 2018 8:08 pm I think from now on I’m just going to lynch new people. Seems to be a compelling strategy so far here.
Never lynch abyssum and Tsaiah.
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Re: DFS Mafia [Day 1]
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Aug 17, 2018 8:23 pmThey all have a little conclusion at the end you fart.Turnip Head wrote: ↑Fri Aug 17, 2018 8:21 pm Someone please @tag me when we get the Cliff's Notes version of JimmyJay's research paper

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Re: DFS Mafia [Day 1]
Do me.

Just kidding, I don’t know. Someone other than the top 4 in my list if possible, otherwise aby is fine.
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Re: DFS Mafia [Day 1]
I'm already doing abyssum.
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Re: DFS Mafia [Day 1]
Perfect.
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Re: DFS Mafia [Day 1]
Just realizing now anyway you’ve looked at everyone except me, yourself, and Russ by the time you finish aby right?
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Re: DFS Mafia [Day 1]
Prologue: The Infection
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