The Syndicate

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:51 pm

Boquise wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:46 pm So unless the team is exactly between like Neon/Creature/Rondo/Nanook (picking my four lowest reads), I am wrong in my towns tbh.

I don't think any combination of those names kills Jack which means you probably are misclearing a town and it is probably SPF.

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:51 pm

Boquise wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:46 pm So unless the team is exactly between like Neon/Creature/Rondo/Nanook (picking my four lowest reads), I am wrong in my towns tbh.

I don't think any combination of those names kills Jack which means you probably are misclearing a town and it is probably SPF.

Lilypetal wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:57 pm to me alison doesnt make sense as scum here tbh is this how she would play as scum? giving herself up for the day 2 elim? if there is precedent then sure i can buy it but ehhh I think her play and handling of my slot specifically made me heavily townread her.

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:57 pm I think Rondo's latest posting has been townie but considering he zeroposted and then silent voted and continued to zeropost D1 I don't feel bad at all about suspecting him before he came back to the thread and would not suspect anyone just for wanting him dead.

Boquise wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:57 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:51 pm

Boquise wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:46 pm So unless the team is exactly between like Neon/Creature/Rondo/Nanook (picking my four lowest reads), I am wrong in my towns tbh.

I don't think any combination of those names kills Jack which means you probably are misclearing a town and it is probably SPF.

Does wolf!spf go out of her way to speak down to a town player's skills and also NK that player who she had been pushing for a long while tbh?

arogame123 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:00 pm

Lilypetal wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:57 pm to me alison doesnt make sense as scum here tbh is this how she would play as scum? giving herself up for the day 2 elim? if there is precedent then sure i can buy it but ehhh I think her play and handling of my slot specifically made me heavily townread her.

Have you ever heard of reverse psychology? lol

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:00 pm

Boquise wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:57 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:51 pm

Boquise wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:46 pm So unless the team is exactly between like Neon/Creature/Rondo/Nanook (picking my four lowest reads), I am wrong in my towns tbh.

I don't think any combination of those names kills Jack which means you probably are misclearing a town and it is probably SPF.

Does wolf!spf go out of her way to speak down to a town player's skills and also NK that player who she had been pushing for a long while tbh?

Maybe and maybe. I think the first is well within her scum range. I don't have a grasp on her NK "range" or philosophy, how WIFOM-y she is, etc., but Jack was the only one who really suspected her D1 which means that on some level SPF has a concrete motive to kill him.

Who do you think are the likely names to want Jack dead?

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:03 pm for what it's worth i am incredibly close to "bet the game" levels on creature being an outed wolf

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:08 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:03 pm for what it's worth i am incredibly close to "bet the game" levels on creature being an outed wolf

Has Creature actually said things to make you intensify your scumread on him or are you just saying this so you can quote it to seem unaligned after a Creature red flip?

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:02 pm idk how much i'll be able to post between now and the EOD. definitely won't be able to get fully caught up. if there's anything urgent you wanna talk to me about then @ me

Lilypetal wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:06 pm @staypositivefriend

can you talk to me a little bit about neon and your feelings about her being town?

Boquise wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:46 pm I was and am worried when reading this day that creature and alison are both town. It felt like we were all set on a yeet order of Alison > Creature, and it is very bad for town to have two monotonous days like that, bad for morale and so on.

At first I town read both but accepted that I would have to play ball with the thread consensus. Neither Alison or Creature seem to be likely to make a Jack kill (though Alison did make a post that made me step back from that thought). Furthermore, Alison has not really done anything scummy and Creature has played mostly from what I am used of him as town. Hence my conundrum. Yeeting outside of them now after the thread has become static is pretty bad though considering D3 will just be a repeat of D2.

Anyway so I did my own poking and thinking whilst thinking on who of them I will place my vote on. I was first going to vote Alison solely to resolve D1 wagons. But I have then decided on Creature because he has made at least some posts I find to be wolfy, and some posts look like wolfy salt. And like, if both are town... I would have to be forced to look at people like Spf, and I happen to town read Spf. So. Yeah.


The player I think is the wolfiest though is Neon.
Neon reacted strongly when I dared to vote Lily.
I have also noted that both Lily and Neon make empty-ish reads and defends players in similar situations as them. Such in, both clamouring that Porscha is town etc.
I think Lily has done some townie posts though.

What has pinged me is that both of them write about how bad they are at mafia, but then we have a post like this from Neon:

Neon wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 7:51 am In wolf equity though I have this to say. I suck at Werewolf but I'm better than that.

Like, the need to defend one's wolf game is often viewed as a townie thing, but this vibe feels like Neon is slighted by my comment. Especially since what I accused her of isnt really a bad scum move.

The progression on me is non-existant. I get punished for not following the status quo and Neon does not want to engage tbh. Neon also lacks the same entitlement as Porscha tbh.

There is a possibility that both Lily and Neon are town who just so happen to be saying the almost same thing and play in the same manner, I have seen that before in other players, but it could just as well be a pocket tbh. I have been "yelled at"/"criticised" by scum when shading their pocket target before tbh


Today I will play ball and be a team player. I'm not very accurate with scum reads and I trust those who are better than me tbh. Just wanted this to be said in case I get NK'd tonight tbh.
But if I am alive tomorrow I will go rogue tbh.


also
Rondo is doing some solve, it is noticed. I still refuse to make a read of him tbh
Nanook is exist too but due to the stagnant day, he has not received ample pressure. I hope we can play D3 without a set in stone agenda between two players solidified right at sod tbh.

If Alison/Creature are v/v, then the only thing that has mattered for scum today is withhold the status quo. It also means they had it chill on D1 too.
I didnt see any sense of urgency during eod1, so I guess that could make Alison spewed town?


I think
Aro, spf, Lucy, Porscha, Seanzie are town
Mac, Lily, Alison - town leans
Rondo, Nanook - Null
Creature - scum lean? Idk Could as well be a town lean but ergh.
Neon - scum lean

So unless the team is exactly between like Neon/Creature/Rondo/Nanook (picking my four lowest reads), I am wrong in my towns tbh.

RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 10:42 am

arogame123 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 5:32 pm Some not w/w thoughts

Alison/Porscha
SPF/Rondo
SPF/Creature
Alison/Mac
Mac/Creature
Boq/Seanzie

lmk if I am missing any other obv ones and if you disagree with any of these.

Rondo/Alison
Rondo/Creature
Rondo/Rondo
Rondo/Aero
Rondo/Lily
Rondo/Boq
Rondo/Lucy
Rondo/Mac
Rondo/Nanook
Rondo/Neon
Rondo/Seanzie

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:08 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:03 pm for what it's worth i am incredibly close to "bet the game" levels on creature being an outed wolf

Has Creature actually said things to make you intensify your scumread on him or are you just saying this so you can quote it to seem unaligned after a Creature red flip?

When Mac wrongly tunnelled you in Spiritfarer you were extremely frustrated that someone you perceived as obvious town just couldn't get there on you. Here you seem more bemused at my push on you than anything... considering a big part of my scumread involves NKA which you think is bullshit shouldn't you be equally frustrated with me?

Boquise wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:12 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:02 pm idk how much i'll be able to post between now and the EOD. definitely won't be able to get fully caught up. if there's anything urgent you wanna talk to me about then @ me

would you be rude to a town when scum tbh @staypositivefriend

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:18 pm

Boquise wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:12 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:02 pm idk how much i'll be able to post between now and the EOD. definitely won't be able to get fully caught up. if there's anything urgent you wanna talk to me about then @ me

would you be rude to a town when scum tbh @staypositivefriend

tbh? probably. i can be a pretty mean wolf and i'm good at gaslighting ppl if i want to discredit their push on me or make them look bad

generally speaking though, sassiness/frustration/anger are almost always towntells for me. i' m a cold unfeeling monster as a wolf and find it difficult to project emotion

Boquise wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:07 pm A) Mafia overestimated Jack's survivability, that he would be able to post himself clear on D2. Requires knowledge of him. Here SPF fits imo.
B) Mafia wants to frame you. This could be done both sincerely or in a wifomy manner. The latter pointing at you, the former your main pushers.
C) A Jack kill signals that there is at least a wolf inside Me/Mac/SPF/Aro, similar to the other game we played here when the N1 kill (or was it the N2? idr) made me start thinking there was a wolf in you/me/JJJ. Lo and behold, there were two.
D) Mafia actually contains of noobs who misread the game and arent good at making NKs Can be combined with B.
E) Mafia are chaos goblins, can be combined with B. Mafia are so confident with their thread position so they don't care.


I guess if I theorise more, Nanook should probably not want Jack murdered solely because they held the same thread position, and Falcon, who was in the same position too, was yeeted.

RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 11:22 am

RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 11:20 am Is slamming Creature over Alison ever a good play? I feel like I really want to go him into Alison but I know I will get a lot of pushback so I hesitate to even bring it up. I just REALLY dont like creature right now

mostly asking if it has the same issue of Porcha into Alison

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:16 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:08 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:03 pm for what it's worth i am incredibly close to "bet the game" levels on creature being an outed wolf

Has Creature actually said things to make you intensify your scumread on him or are you just saying this so you can quote it to seem unaligned after a Creature red flip?

When Mac wrongly tunnelled you in Spiritfarer you were extremely frustrated that someone you perceived as obvious town just couldn't get there on you. Here you seem more bemused at my push on you than anything... considering a big part of my scumread involves NKA which you think is bullshit shouldn't you be equally frustrated with me?

yes, creature appears to be in anti-spew by all indications, and i have never seen him play this way as a villager. he sheepishly parked his vote on me and threw a fit in the thread even though there was no realistic chance of me going over, and then made several posts talking about how he was going to inevitably die even though he still had an incredibly high chance of surviving at the time that he made those posts. i think that he has relied on rhetoric/ATE more than he typically does as town and that his view of the game does not feel like it comes from the perspective of someone who is invested in solving the game

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:20 pm

Boquise wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:07 pm A) Mafia overestimated Jack's survivability, that he would be able to post himself clear on D2. Requires knowledge of him. Here SPF fits imo.
B) Mafia wants to frame you. This could be done both sincerely or in a wifomy manner. The latter pointing at you, the former your main pushers.
C) A Jack kill signals that there is at least a wolf inside Me/Mac/SPF/Aro, similar to the other game we played here when the N1 kill (or was it the N2? idr) made me start thinking there was a wolf in you/me/JJJ. Lo and behold, there were two.
D) Mafia actually contains of noobs who misread the game and arent good at making NKs Can be combined with B.
E) Mafia are chaos goblins, can be combined with B. Mafia are so confident with their thread position so they don't care.


I guess if I theorise more, Nanook should probably not want Jack murdered solely because they held the same thread position, and Falcon, who was in the same position too, was yeeted.

The problem is that those worlds either don't make sense or implicate SPF.

A) implicates SPF as you have said.
B) is unlikely. To frame me the obvious kill is Mac. He was saying he would blacklist anyone who didn't vote me yesterday, so killing him N1 strongly frames me + prevents him (who has a very good grasp of my meta) from reevalling me as he did.
C) Again signals there is a wolf in the group which contains SPF.
D)... I don't think there is anyone who is that nooby that they don't know that Jack is a worse kill than Mac or SPF in the worlds they are town.
E) implicates Rondo more than anyone, but Rondo is both townie and appears to have been afk through the night phase.

If wolves are so confident in their thread position they don't care then that implicates SPF as well.

So you see my worry here.

RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 11:44 am

Porscha wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:17 am

RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 9:47 pm

Porscha wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:41 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:08 pm i think part of the problem with this game is that i'm struggling to establish a foundation of people that i trust, and all of my thoughts more disjointed than they usually are

i think that mac is blatant town and the way he has played over the last ~2 hours or so cement that fact. i don't think his push on alison comes out in the specific way that it has (or with the level of conviction that it has) in a world where he's mafia

i'm struggling to come to alison being a wolf for a couple of reasons:

1. if alison is mafia, who reasonably has partner equity with her? the momentum against her yesterday came almost exclusively from a pool of people that i perceive as likely containing a high number of wolves, and most of these were players were widely POE'd yesterday as well (ie: Nanook, Neon, Porscha,, Seanzie,, RondoDimBuckle all had their votes on alison toward the end of the day and were among the earliest to push against her)

so, in a world where the wolves are being correctly widely POE'd by the rest of the game and are in an unstable thread position, why on earth would they decide to hardbus alison? what would they gain from bussing one of the strongest players in the game who could easily endgame as a wolf? what tangible benefit would they get from it?

the alternative is that alison actually is mafia and her partners voted to protect her on d1, but this would require that:

A. my view of the game is upside down and there are multiple wolves contained within like, (mac, lily, lucy, aro), etc

B. the wolves were willing to go hard to protect alison on d1 with the full awareness that they would look bad in a world where she inevitably flipped W

this doesn't seem like a risk that most wolf teams would be willing to take, and i actually suspect that alison is the type of player who would ASK to be bussed in the position she was in on d1, but i don't see any viable bussers for her that wouldn't have been stupidly suicidal/playing against the win condition of their team to try to bury her on d1

2. i just don't find her posts that wolfy. maybe this is a skill issue on my part, and maybe my mind will change once i read mac's posts about alison more thoroughly, but i just don't! she is much more assertive and forceful with her reads than she was in the spec chat inviational, in which she was extremely passive and barely made moves to influence the threadstate. she is much more naturally suspicious of me even though she would almost want to pocket me in a world where she's a wolf and i'm incorrectly defending her. and in general, i don't find the reasons i've seen to scumread her (outside of some of mac's points) to be compelling or good.....at all

so yeah idk, im trying my best to conceptualize analison wolf world but i can't really shake the feeling that she's more likely to be town than not. there have been multiple times in recent memory where i had a correct read and the entire gamestate was telling me i was wrong and i ended up being right anyway - i don't really want to doubt my instincts even though i'm aware that i'm creating quite the hole for myself in a world where alison is W

porscha is still a wide target of suspicion among most people here, but i am similarly struggling to grasp what the case on her is. i agree that some of her posts in early d1 felt fake and like they came from a wolf that is going through the motions, but i think she has significantly improved from the middle of d1- nward, even if i'm not confident about her being town. i think that i need a specific case against porscha in order for me to get to a world where she's a wolf, because as of now i would describe her posts as being: "broadly fine"

i want to write a paragraph for every player here but im losing energy so im just gonna post it

guess you would need to possibly consider that some of those players aren't wolves?

perhaps that is not the world we are in?

out of these players listed specifically, I am not against lucy or aro possibly being wolves. I TR mac and lily.

do you find alison's gameplay to be difficult to find between her alignments? she is a logical argument based player - this leads to more "objective" and "logical" conclusions that may be hard to differentiate between alignment play. Are you basing your alison read on her actual posts, or on meta from the last game you mentioned where she wolfed? A combination maybe?

why does everybody always say this lol. wolves can't pocket everyone...

which ones?

Which world are we win?color]

Why do you wolf read them and town read the others?

1) I think out of those listed, nook is most likely, neon possible, doubtful on sean

2) I don't know I just like asking people stupid questions about game state views to help ensure bases get covered

3) when I made the post, I have had mac town from his kerfluffle with alison earlier in the game. I think lily has towntold. I felt relatively null on lucy earlier but since her posts regarding the creature push, she comes off as more towny. I will watch her closely but she can be tl. I haven't particularly found something to sr her for. as for aro - I dont feel I can read him particularly well and I'm always worried he's wolfing in front of my very eyes. no particular sr for him at the time either. it was based on who I tr'd which just left the remainders but I would not say I am currently sr'ing both of them. curious to see both of their progressions tho

You started off so strong but then you waffled into a nothing burger at the end. Plenty of people you are town on but your scums are umming and uhhing on. I started reading and thought "Maybe Porcha IS town?" Then just kinda lost the vibe

Boquise wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:10 pm @Alison have you decided whether you will keep voting yourself or will you vote Creature for the self press?

RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 12:12 pm Is Neon/Creature/X viable?

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:27 pm alison was a wolf last game and saw the way that NKA led the town down the wrong path and almost singlehandedly lost us the game, so you think that she would have learned her lesson not to trust NKA if she was town but w/e

RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 12:20 pm

Seanzie wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 9:51 am

RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 9:20 am

Seanzie wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 5:09 am I'm like 4 pages behind and dedicated to staying there, but the few pages I did read this morning give me one big impress

Mac and Alison are putting on a show. Wolf theatre 3000.

indradesting, you still feel this way?

This is the single wolfiest post I've seen all game.

[VOTE: Rondo] aubergine

You know, now that I am caught up this vote on me is even more hilarious. Considering I just gave him ++Alison equity just a few posts above but he chose THIS post to decide to vote me on? THIS ONE? HAHAHAHAHAHA Seanzie, are you trying to be an outed wolf?

lucy wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:34 pm how confident are you that creature is scum? do we agree he's in anti spew @Boquise @Alison

Boquise wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 2:47 pm maybe some players in this game just scum read peeps because they dislike them tbh

Seanzie wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:06 pm

Boquise wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 2:47 pm maybe some players in this game just scum read peeps because they dislike them tbh

I scumread people I like tbh.

Boq, you're a wolf!

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:13 pm

Lilypetal wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:06 pm @staypositivefriend

can you talk to me a little bit about neon and your feelings about her being town?

to be clear, i have neon in my "null" tier, and i consider her to be in my upper POE. i've gotten several townpings from her in a tonal/"vibe" sense (Iie: i think she has consistently handled suspicion in a way that most wolves struggle to do, i think she comes off as relaxed and unconcerned with how she is being perceived in a way that is atypical for a wolf), but that read hasn't formed into a concrete townlean because i think most of the stuff that i'm describing is easily fakeable by a good wolf

so idk, i think she "makes sense" as a wolf in many worlds but i just don't feel like she is the most likely to be a wolf out of all the people in my POE, if that makes sense