The Syndicate

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 3:33 pm

DharmaHelper wrote: ↑Fri Aug 17, 2018 12:54 am There are four major things I think we should dial in on in order to determine who next to lynch. I will call them "Quadrants".


Quadrant 1: Who did Alien talk about? Who did they suspect? Who did they trust?

Quadrant 2: Who talked about alien? Who trusted them, who suspected them? When did they suspect alien (pre/post Russ Case?)

Quadrant 3: How did people react to the Russ Case and similar Alien Cases? Was there a save attempt or a bus attempt?

Quadrant 4: Who can we clear based on an alien lynch?

This is a bit Captain Obvious. That doesn't have to be a problem. Sometimes obvious calls to action are worthwhile to motivate people.

But DH has done nothing with any of these quadrants. Indeed, he has received two votes and no allies, and his only effort has been to give me sarcasm. I'm inclined to view the "quadrants" post as fake.

Tsaiah wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 3:37 pm Oh and that makes me think of something else--@M Plus 7, you said something about how i was using my time at eod that made me headtilt like an owl xD

I stopped catching up (stopping catching up when i'm feeling perpetually behind is a Big Deal) the night before bc of getting to the fuck it, i've gotta read those other alien games now to compare point. I fell asleep thinking about that. I woke up and immediately went back to mulling that over. I braintongued at it in between guests at work. Then i managed to get off work and back here in just enough time to address it, get some final questions in, and make my final decision.

So from my pov, it's like, why the heck would i have been doing anything else?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 3:44 pm I thought Marmot looked pretty good during his brief incursion into the thread starting around the GTH exercise.

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 3:44 pm In fact I'm betting my reputation here and now that Tsaiah is town. Lock it.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 3:47 pm If you're going to lock someone, you might as well do it big.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 3:11 pm Lunalee, I'd really love to hear any response you can provide to this. You're an extremely important player in the current scenario, and sorting you out could make all the difference.

Lunalee wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 3:51 pm Okay, will do. I also want to do some analysis today, but man Jay, I don't know if it's necessary after all of your posts. :P I'll help fill in where I can.

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 2:55 pm

Spoiler: show

Tsaiah wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 2:53 pm Do Not Touch With Rope list rn is Aby, Russ, MP, Jay
I Feel Like Mac Would Probably Appreciate His Own Category: Mac
Probably Do Not Wave Rope At list rn is Kyle, Colin, Luna

Robot could be scum here. Gonna have to iso first to get my own read there, which ain't happening today. Work last night was brutal to the core (yay working at a restaurant during the first week of semester in a university town!), and for some dingdang reason I woke up after like four hours anyway--trying to iso would almost certainly end up in an unscheduled nap, so nope, it's off the cuff stuff for today.

I think DH was the one i wasn't liking alien interaction stuffs with, not TH? (Y'all call them initials so much that I'm just now getting to the point that i don't comflate them in my head when someone else is talking about them.) Will figure that out tomorrow too if i don't by random thread poking today.

In any case, don't think i've seen a proposed lynch i have any known reason to dislike yet, so fine with the start today

Annnd something something _postus interruptus_ by a sudden rainstorm, idr what else i was about to say before the mad scramble to put up my tablet (at least it woke me up a bit )



(Freakin sod flavor made me lol, kudos for that xD)

@ Tsaiah

I think you and I are pretty much on the same page. What do you make of sprityo? Curious about that when you get a chance.

Lunalee wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 3:51 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 3:11 pm Lunalee, I'd really love to hear any response you can provide to this. You're an extremely important player in the current scenario, and sorting you out could make all the difference.

Okay, will do. I also want to do some analysis today, but man Jay, I don't know if it's necessary after all of your posts. :P I'll help fill in where I can.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 3:52 pm

Lunalee wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 3:51 pm Okay, will do. I also want to do some analysis today, but man Jay, I don't know if it's necessary after all of your posts. :P I'll help fill in where I can.

Nothing could possibly be more necessary, my friend.

I am one guy. I say wrong and dumb things sometimes. Please, by all means, do all the analytic work you want to do. It is important.

Tsaiah wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 3:53 pm

Spoiler: show

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 2:55 pm

Spoiler: show

Tsaiah wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 2:53 pm Do Not Touch With Rope list rn is Aby, Russ, MP, Jay
I Feel Like Mac Would Probably Appreciate His Own Category: Mac
Probably Do Not Wave Rope At list rn is Kyle, Colin, Luna

Robot could be scum here. Gonna have to iso first to get my own read there, which ain't happening today. Work last night was brutal to the core (yay working at a restaurant during the first week of semester in a university town!), and for some dingdang reason I woke up after like four hours anyway--trying to iso would almost certainly end up in an unscheduled nap, so nope, it's off the cuff stuff for today.

I think DH was the one i wasn't liking alien interaction stuffs with, not TH? (Y'all call them initials so much that I'm just now getting to the point that i don't comflate them in my head when someone else is talking about them.) Will figure that out tomorrow too if i don't by random thread poking today.

In any case, don't think i've seen a proposed lynch i have any known reason to dislike yet, so fine with the start today

Annnd something something _postus interruptus_ by a sudden rainstorm, idr what else i was about to say before the mad scramble to put up my tablet (at least it woke me up a bit )



(Freakin sod flavor made me lol, kudos for that xD)

@ Tsaiah

I think you and I are pretty much on the same page. What do you make of sprityo? Curious about that when you get a chance.

@M Plus 7

After catching up with the thread, i tried the GTH exercise (which y'all did without me, smh) on myself, and on sprityo I misfired x3--they were almost a total blank. The only thing I've got in the memory banks is that he disected a case that i think was against him inside the quote style, and that he sounded angry. So reading thru them is definitely on my todo list for d2.

If you haven't talked about it yet, how do you feel about alien's treatment of kylemii and Luna?

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 3:44 pm In fact I'm betting my reputation here and now that Tsaiah is town. Lock it.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 4:07 pm Luna teeters on the edge of the danger zone. I think I will decide my feelings on the matter based upon her posts moving forward rather than the alien interactions. They leave many questions.

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 4:07 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 3:44 pm In fact I'm betting my reputation here and now that Tsaiah is town. Lock it.

@Tsaiah

You want to make this a mutual lock?

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 3:46 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 3:44 pm In fact I'm betting my reputation here and now that Tsaiah is town. Lock it.

I swear to fucking god I will never hear the end of this if I'm wrong but I'm 99.99% sure that I'm not.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 4:11 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 4:07 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 3:44 pm In fact I'm betting my reputation here and now that Tsaiah is town. Lock it.

@ Tsaiah

You want to make this a mutual lock?

HeS bUdDyInG yOu

Tsaiah wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 4:11 pm runs under cover before it starts raining -again-

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 3:46 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 3:44 pm In fact I'm betting my reputation here and now that Tsaiah is town. Lock it.

I swear to fucking god I will never hear the end of this if I'm wrong but I'm 99.99% sure that I'm not.

Your reputation is safe!

That said, while I'll probably have tinfoil moments like i tend to do with Aby, realistically I'm already at the betting the game on you point, too. :3

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 4:14 pm I'll determine our theoretical number of mislynches available, so all of the POO work can reflect the size the pool needs to be.

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 4:12 pm I'm really starting to think our last two scum are just within the following four-tier pools in pretty much 99% of universes (just lynch in the following order starting from Robot downward):

RobotNerd277
DharmaHelper

if that doesn't resolve, then:

Turnip Head
Marmot
Lunalee

if that doesn't resolve, then:

sprityo

if that SOMEHOW doesn't resolve, then we live in the tinfoil universe:

MacDougall

And honestly I think in 95% of universes we don't get past the second pool.

Tsaiah wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 4:16 pm And yus, I think I'm there.

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 4:17 pm Also! I missed my 1,000th post in a single game thread! This is 1,003.

Turnip Head wrote: ↑Fri Aug 17, 2018 11:48 pm I got the moves like Jagged

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 4:20 pm We started with 15 players.

The most likely arrangement of alignments is 12 civilians versus 3 mafia. 11 versus 4 is technically plausible, but I don't think it's likely in a vanilla-heavy heist. That's hard to balance, and Epignosis is less likely to screw around with that kind of swing than most hosts would be.

Given that the winning contestant will be granted a win as an independent, I think it's inherently less likely that the game features any standard independents.

So, I work with 12 vs. 3.

Day 1 was a mafia lynch, and Night 1 had no kill. That'd leave us in Day 2 at 12 vs. 2.

If every day from this point results in a mislynch and a kill follows in the night, that can happen four times before we reach 4 vs. 2 in Day 6. That would represent MyLo (and LyLo if we are unable to no lynch).

4 mislynches available, 2 mafia alive, the POO pool must correctly feature 6 names -- this assumes I haven't screwed the pooch in my math/logic here. Failed kills would change the dynamic.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 4:21 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 4:17 pm Also! I missed my 1,000th post in a single game thread! This is 1,003.

I believe you're the first to do so in a heist.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 4:22 pm If you're fearful of the 11 vs. 4 possibility, the pool must obviously be narrowed accordingly.

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 4:24 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 4:20 pm We started with 15 players.

The most likely arrangement of alignments is 12 civilians versus 3 mafia. 11 versus 4 is technically plausible, but I don't think it's likely in a vanilla-heavy heist. That's hard to balance, and Epignosis is less likely to screw around with that kind of swing than most hosts would be.

Given that the winning contestant will be granted a win as an independent, I think it's inherently less likely that the game features any standard independents.

So, I work with 12 vs. 3.

Day 1 was a mafia lynch, and Night 1 had no kill. That'd leave us in Day 2 at 12 vs. 2.

If every day from this point results in a mislynch and a kill follows in the night, that can happen four times before we reach 4 vs. 2 in Day 6. That would represent MyLo (and LyLo if we are unable to no lynch).

4 mislynches available, 2 mafia alive, the POO pool must correctly feature 6 names -- this assumes I haven't screwed the pooch in my math/logic here. Failed kills would change the dynamic.

This seems correct to me.

So... assuming my list above was hard-followed (which is NOT recommended, because #constantreassessment, but it's how I currently stand), that means the most likely outcome if the game isn't solved until F3 is a sprityo lynch.