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Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]

Posted: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:33 pm
by JaggedJimmyJay
Made wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:30 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:28 pm My chart sucked in that the orange blocks appear wrong, but the yellow pile might still be salvageable. Either way it's definitely not my best chart. Anyway I don't much care about it anymore and am reassessing interactions from the start.
Why change so much now that spf flipped but so so hesitant to change before that?

You made me cry mr jjj
I mean, with the power role claims the change is necessitated, and it wasn't before that. It's not about my reads as much as it's about how much room I have in the POE pool. There's a good chance I'll vote for someone today that I thought looked town most of the game.

Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]

Posted: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:34 pm
by NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
Made wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:27 pm Wait so we’re confident that Tutuu is mafia because she’s hit all of her town markers but hasn’t been mafia in 2 years???

Alisons votes look the worst here
[VOTE: Alison] aubergine
She was mafia not that long ago

Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]

Posted: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:35 pm
by Made
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:34 pm
Made wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:27 pm Wait so we’re confident that Tutuu is mafia because she’s hit all of her town markers but hasn’t been mafia in 2 years???

Alisons votes look the worst here
[VOTE: Alison] aubergine
She was mafia not that long ago
Gotcha, mistead

Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]

Posted: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:35 pm
by JaggedJimmyJay
Michelle wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:31 pm
Made wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:20 pm Is JJJ particularly good at faking long association based reads? Like he came up with his whole association chart which made sense but was entirely wrong looking back at it. It seems like a bad idea to be so wrong
if you want to see scum Jay go to game of champions in 2020 and Iso his posts. Also you can check how Sloonei figured he is wolf. Idk if he knew it because Sloonei was also wolf in another team, but he was authentic in his scumhunt.

As someone who saw Jay as both AIs I am not terrified to loose to scum Jay but I would be ashamed to ML again town Jay
The GOC is a bit of a different beast I think, because with two mafia teams nobody needs to make fake reads. It was easily my most active scum game though.

I tend to refer to the Season 6 Scrimmage as the most accurate prototype of how I usually play as a mafioso.

Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]

Posted: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:36 pm
by NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
Made wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:31 pm
Made wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:30 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:28 pm My chart sucked in that the orange blocks appear wrong, but the yellow pile might still be salvageable. Either way it's definitely not my best chart. Anyway I don't much care about it anymore and am reassessing interactions from the start.
Why change so much now that spf flipped but so so hesitant to change before that?

You made me cry mr jjj
Same question at Nanook
I don’t think I have changed that much

I considered putting spf into the top end of the POE briefly then took her back out when she claimed, that’s pretty much the only thing her claim changed I think

Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]

Posted: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:36 pm
by NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
It clarified worlds a bit I guess, but it didn’t really change much I don’t think

Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]

Posted: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:38 pm
by NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
Like before spf claimed I was considering which two of [spf/dk/frogu] should be in my POE, her claim made that decision easy

I wouldn’t say that really changed much, it just clarified things

Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]

Posted: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:39 pm
by Made
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:33 pm
Made wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:30 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:28 pm My chart sucked in that the orange blocks appear wrong, but the yellow pile might still be salvageable. Either way it's definitely not my best chart. Anyway I don't much care about it anymore and am reassessing interactions from the start.
Why change so much now that spf flipped but so so hesitant to change before that?

You made me cry mr jjj
I mean, with the power role claims the change is necessitated, and it wasn't before that. It's not about my reads as much as it's about how much room I have in the POE pool. There's a good chance I'll vote for someone today that I thought looked town most of the game.
But the only thing that changed for you with spf’s reveal is spf right? You already trusted Tutuu and my roleclaim gave you Michelle and me. Why would spf’s flip sway so much more than mine when mine gave more information?

Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]

Posted: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:41 pm
by JaggedJimmyJay
Do Alison and Grogu fit together as mafia teammates?

From Alison about Grogu

Spoiler: show
Spoiler: show
Alison wrote: Tue Jan 19, 2021 8:40 pm
DaughterOfOmega wrote: Tue Jan 19, 2021 8:32 pm I think Grogu is the mafia who will be found first. They are kind of openwolfing to an extent that I enjoy, and I won't push them personally.
mafia doesn't say this

Grogu is only relevant to this post by association, but here it is for posterity.

Spoiler: show
Alison wrote: Wed Jan 20, 2021 5:20 am Also there was that series of posts by Grogu that was sufficiently off the wall that it probably crossed the line from lolcatting into "this player is sufficiently disconnected from the game that it's sorta townie"

It's a soft reason to give Grogu town credit. I don't really object to that, but from a compatibility perspective it is acknowledged.

Spoiler: show
Alison wrote: Wed Jan 20, 2021 5:42 am Can't wait to see what Mac thinks about the Grogu saga
Alison wrote: Wed Jan 20, 2021 5:42 am
MacDougall wrote: Wed Jan 20, 2021 5:42 am Grogu may be my top town. Y'all nerds.
hahahaha
Alison wrote: Wed Jan 20, 2021 5:45 am
MacDougall wrote: Wed Jan 20, 2021 5:43 am
Alison wrote: Wed Jan 20, 2021 5:42 am
MacDougall wrote: Wed Jan 20, 2021 5:42 am Grogu may be my top town. Y'all nerds.
hahahaha
What's your Grogu stance?
He's in my POE, but not my pick to be exed today.
Alison wrote: Wed Jan 20, 2021 5:47 am
MacDougall wrote: Wed Jan 20, 2021 5:43 am Grogu literally has the force. They show up ping out Long Con and Michelle and be all cute. That is the towniest shit ever.
So I don't deny that the disconnection from the threadstate felt pure, and is townie in and of itself and probably the strongest reason to townread Grogu, but

I think you and nanook have a thing where you bias towards townreading players who are funny and a little wild and unpredictable and offbeat, just for being those things, when I'm not convinced they're actually strong towntells. I think you like Grogu's posts on a personal level and are giving him towncred because you like his posts. He hasn't actually done much if you cut through the fluff, and more importantly, the cute gimmick makes it hard to read him which means it's hard to towncore him which means in the POE.

Alison's had a brief exchange with Mac about Grogu, anticipating his town read. She then clarified her perspective of Grogu by way of Mac's read, suggesting that while Grogu seemed disconnected that wasn't enough on its own power to have a confident read. I agree with Alison on all of that. I don't think the clarification means they cannot be teammates. Perhaps Alison's laughy bit with Mac is less overtly teammate behavior. It's difficult to draw a lot from this though.

Spoiler: show
Alison wrote: Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:19 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:18 pm i would murder baby yoda without mercy

i do prefer not to off our newcomers on day 1, but this game is loaded with people i've never seen before
Grogu exe is palatable but I would sort of like to resolve the Ellie/LC deadlock and solve from there.
Alison wrote: Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:54 pm Grogu is in the POE by default.
Alison wrote: Thu Jan 21, 2021 7:21 pm
MacDougall wrote: Thu Jan 21, 2021 6:48 pm Alison's progression on Ellie went from lock town to slightly softened, to voting, with no in-between. No effort to engage her. No effort to make a case. Its almost townie cuz of how sloppy it would be for her. But we don't outthink ourselves with Alison.
Get out of your tunnel and step into my shoes for one minute. There are 3 people who are remotely possible to die today, and who I would find a palatable exe: Made, LC, Ellie (I guess Grogu is there, but I don't want a Grogu exe because it's a cop out and doesn't resolve any of the current controversies). I am jet lagged and juggling various IRL responsibilities. I wake up at 3PM, come online, and see that LC is acting in a way that 1) isn't congruent with his previous scum play and 2) lessens his partner equity with Esooa. I read it as townie overall, and switch to Ellie, who has been fairly quiet and is being deathtunnelled by Esooa (who I townread).

In this position, I'm not gonna bother writing a huge case wall on Ellie. I'm just going to vote her because she's the logical choice if I'm not feeling an LC exe and Made didn't have any traction. Context matters and just because I'm headstrong as town doesn't mean that any time I take a softer approach I'm automatically scum. I got mistunnelled for that shit in Hydra G5 and I expect you to know me better than that.

The middle post is extracted from a larger reads list. The orange-highlighted part is actually a classic salad with the parenthetical serving as the "maybe". :grin:

The emerging theme of Grogu is choppable but not my preference is again fine logically, but also suitable for teammates.

Spoiler: show
Alison wrote: Sat Jan 23, 2021 12:25 pm Towncore: Esooa/nutella/tutuu/koba/nanook

Knocking on the towncore door: DOOM

High POE: Michelle, SPF

Low POE: Grogu, Made, Ellie

Something like this is where I'm at atm. I think there's a decent chance the team is exactly [Grogu/Made/Ellie], since the interactions make sense to me if it's exactly that.

This is Day 2 now. Grogu's placement on the reads list doesn't mean much to me either way. It's cool that he's a suspect, but he's stuck beside two civilians.

Spoiler: show
Alison wrote: Sat Jan 23, 2021 12:42 pm
Michelle wrote: Sat Jan 23, 2021 12:40 pm Agree with Alison about tutuu and Nanook
I actually don't know what you believe about the gamestate outside of your pet scumreads. What's your view on JJJ, myself, Grogu, etc.?

Might be notable that Grogu was one of the names Alison opted to include in this question. That's a bit of a reach.

Spoiler: show
Alison wrote: Sat Jan 23, 2021 12:57 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Sat Jan 23, 2021 12:52 pm I'm inclined to cleanly separate Michelle from Ellie on the basis of this dialogue. Arguing with someone else about whether your teammate has played 3 games or more than that (when that someone else ought to have the objective knowledge) seems super goofy lol
I think I buy this, which would mean that scum is most likely some variant of Ellie/Made/X, or Michelle/Made/X, where X is like, Grogu or SPF or whatever.

I'm inclined to exe Made since he seems to be partnered with everyone and the charge of pushing nonsensical narratives can just as easily be applied to him as to Michelle. [VOTE: Made] aubergine

Grogu continually serves as a sort of external chop option as the "+1" or "X" or "whatever".

Spoiler: show
Alison wrote: Sat Jan 23, 2021 12:58 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Sat Jan 23, 2021 12:57 pm I may be guilty of falling victim to sentiment; I just kinda think the kind words here from Grogu either exist in the mafia chat or they're not stated at all out of fear of it being out-of-bounds (given that it is open to be interpreted for alignment).
Let's just say that I'm not going to assume that Grogu thinks or plays like a typical mafia player.

Fair

Spoiler: show
Alison wrote: Sat Jan 23, 2021 1:30 pm
Esooa wrote: Sat Jan 23, 2021 1:29 pm grogu posts rn feel towny tbh
I agree.

This became a somewhat popular perspective a couple times when Grogu made his appearances and seemed fine. As I've often said here already, I take no issue with the read -- but it does not dissociate the two.

Spoiler: show
Alison wrote: Sat Jan 23, 2021 7:25 pm
Made wrote: Sat Jan 23, 2021 7:22 pm wait, so if michelle is bad, who are her teammates again?
You.

Then I think the third is Grogu, DOOM or Ellie (although Ellie is the least likely and would require some impressive anti-spew going on with the argument about how many games of experience Ellie had).
Alison wrote: Sat Jan 23, 2021 7:30 pm
nutella wrote: Sat Jan 23, 2021 7:29 pm
Made wrote: Sat Jan 23, 2021 7:27 pm
DkKoba wrote: Sat Jan 23, 2021 7:26 pm
Made wrote: Sat Jan 23, 2021 7:25 pm pumping the brakes, i'll vote back michelle in one second
if u hammer u should be turbo'd for it.

im informing u rn that voting = hammer.
I was voted michelle, and moved me vote off to prevent hammer cuz i'm still a little loss on implications of the flip.
is Alison's read consensus?
I have Grogu and Doom as town. I think Ellie and you are both possible Michelle teammates, and Nanook and Jay are also possibilities. It may be one of you/ellie and one of the two "deeper" guys
I think Nanook and Jay are townier than Grogu and Doom but we can argue about that D4

Grogu gets a few more mentions as a plausible suspect by association and as being more suspicious than popular tinfoil celebrities JJJ and Nanook. Okay, doesn't speak to me either way.

Spoiler: show
Alison wrote: Sat Jan 23, 2021 9:29 pm
Esooa wrote: Sat Jan 23, 2021 9:24 pm @Allison reads list pls unless you've posted one recently
Towncore: DK, Esooa, nanook, nutella, tutuu, JJJ
Knocking on the door: SPF, DOOM
Townread: Grogu
POE: Michelle, Made, Ellie

DOOM and Grogu move around a bit, but this is roughly where I have them at right now. JJJ has been too in-sync with me today for me to leave him out of the towncore, and I don't think mafia is in a good enough position that they can afford to just have the exact same stance as me to pocket me. If JJJ is scum he has to push his own agenda, not just sheep me. I've had a couple of interactions with SPF that make me more confident about her, and that's why she's knocking at the towncore's door. I particularly liked the "chill" vibe I got from her when I quizzed her about how she feels about people not clearing her.

Grogu remains just outside the danger zone.

Spoiler: show
Alison wrote: Sun Jan 24, 2021 5:07 am Grogu has moved in my reads. I'm still conflicted because his actual pushes are kinda opportunistic on a base level but I don't have a hard time believing he would do this as town and he comes off as honest and transparent in his posting.

I'm seeing more tinfoil towards the "middle" slots like me/SPF/JJJ/nook. I currently have townreads on all of these players and no particular inclination to tinfoil any of them.
Alison wrote: Sun Jan 24, 2021 5:46 am
staypositivefriend wrote: Sun Jan 24, 2021 5:40 am
Alison wrote: Sun Jan 24, 2021 5:38 am
staypositivefriend wrote: Sun Jan 24, 2021 5:33 am
Alison wrote: Sun Jan 24, 2021 5:29 am I'm having mixed feelings about this SPF push on Koba and not sure whether to ding her for trying to widen the POE or give her points for townie paranoia.
if i was interested in widening the poe then i would be pushing on nanook, or jagged, or even you - not on a player that's been consensus "spewed clear" town from the very beginning of the game. if i was interested in getting people paranoid about koba, it would also be a lot more subtle
Okay. GTH, is the game easy or hard?
it's easy with a strong likelihood of exactly one deep wolf

i think outing that thought could be perceived as instilling paranoia, but that's where i'm at
This is actually where I'm at too lol

It's like Ellie and Made and then the elusive +1 is hard. It's why I've been looking for signs of powerwolfing, because in that world the +1 has to leverage their clout to help their team somehow, and I think this will be the marker that helps us find them. From that perspective, koba/doom/grogu are less likely to fit this bill, since they haven't been making any concerted effort to push a scum agenda. So maybe the +1 isn't DOOM after all and you just fooled me with the chill vibe, or JJJ faked a mind meld, or something.
Alison wrote: Sun Jan 24, 2021 6:43 pm Grogu lowkey trending down over the past couple of pages. I think the clueless baby yoda schtick is being pushed a little too OTT in a forced way. I haven't seen anything that makes me worried about nook or JJJ, to be honest, and I'm not sure why such a big deal was made over their interaction. JJJ sets the town bar high and expresses that someone hasn't cleared it; nanook is flippant and annoyed that he's being scumread when he feels he shouldn't be. This is classic stuff and completely ordinary for both of them.

These are a few more loosely related posts in which Alison explores the matter of Grogu. The theme continues: they are inoffensive, but not incompatible.

Spoiler: show
Alison wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 12:28 pm
Grogu wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 12:27 pm TOS is not like this game.
No, it isn't. Tell me about what your POE is like right now.

Generic prod

From Grogu about Alison

Spoiler: show
Spoiler: show
Grogu wrote: Sat Jan 23, 2021 1:20 pm
Alison wrote: Sat Jan 23, 2021 1:18 pm Omega is a she, I think.
Yes.

Probably irrelevant

Spoiler: show
Grogu wrote: Sun Jan 24, 2021 6:45 pm
Alison wrote: Sun Jan 24, 2021 6:43 pm Grogu lowkey trending down over the past couple of pages. I think the clueless baby yoda schtick is being pushed a little too OTT in a forced way. I haven't seen anything that makes me worried about nook or JJJ, to be honest, and I'm not sure why such a big deal was made over their interaction. JJJ sets the town bar high and expresses that someone hasn't cleared it; nanook is flippant and annoyed that he's being scumread when he feels he shouldn't be. This is classic stuff and completely ordinary for both of them.
Well enjoy your last night on this planet. I did not enjoy this post, I will force choke you. You played yourself
Grogu wrote: Sun Jan 24, 2021 6:48 pm Grogu vs Alison

Image

Funny exchange. It might be the most severe aggression of Grogu's so far, and it's still a joke. So I don't think I care about it.

Conclusion

I would say that they fit together. There isn't a smoking gun that screams "yes, they're teammates". The closest thing might be Alison's salad. But I cannot dissociate the two with any degree of confidence.

Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]

Posted: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:41 pm
by Michelle
tutuu wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:35 am
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:31 am
tutuu wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:31 am Good mornin sunshines whats cookin
Someone tried to shoot you probably
Dude i just woke up and i dreamt someone was trying to mug me and stab me and i ran away. Is that just fate? Im telling u man my dreams are prophetic
tutuu wrote: Sat Nov 28, 2020 6:20 pm I JUST DREAMT ABOUT TED

:evileye:

Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]

Posted: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:42 pm
by tutuu
made and michelle and even spf escaping the poe must have been a huge emotional blow for the wolves. this was such a turnaround

i believe that could be related to the way grogu and DOOM both felt really irked and annoyed towards me without being provoked to do so from my point of view

both of them have been scumread in the past days and have shown no such reactions before

Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]

Posted: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:43 pm
by tutuu
Michelle wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:41 pm
tutuu wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:35 am
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:31 am
tutuu wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:31 am Good mornin sunshines whats cookin
Someone tried to shoot you probably
Dude i just woke up and i dreamt someone was trying to mug me and stab me and i ran away. Is that just fate? Im telling u man my dreams are prophetic
tutuu wrote: Sat Nov 28, 2020 6:20 pm I JUST DREAMT ABOUT TED

:evileye:
dreaming is nai; i can link u games where ive talked about my dreams as town

Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]

Posted: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:43 pm
by JaggedJimmyJay
Made wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:39 pm But the only thing that changed for you with spf’s reveal is spf right? You already trusted Tutuu and my roleclaim gave you Michelle and me. Why would spf’s flip sway so much more than mine when mine gave more information?
I added tutuu to my POE, though that is still something I am working through. I don't think SPF's claim swayed me more than yours did; probably less actually. Your claim cleared [theoretically] two people and hers cleared one. They were all at least near-POE, and with them clear I remove them and replace them with people who seemed town. That's just how POE works.

Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]

Posted: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:43 pm
by Made
Also, if assume Tutuu and Nutella are town, we also assume mafia hasn’t use their vig shot yet


Does that seem likely?
Based on how far off based we were, that seems consistent to me. No need to use it to you need to silence someone

Cool thing tho is if this is true, we can feel more confident in Tutuu and Nutella reads when two kill happen in one night.

Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]

Posted: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:43 pm
by Michelle
I don't remember any dream from Tutuu in any game, but maybe my memory is tricky, are you telling stories about dreams often @tutuu ?

Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]

Posted: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:45 pm
by JaggedJimmyJay
tutuu wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:42 pm made and michelle and even spf escaping the poe must have been a huge emotional blow for the wolves. this was such a turnaround

i believe that could be related to the way grogu and DOOM both felt really irked and annoyed towards me without being provoked to do so from my point of view

both of them have been scumread in the past days and have shown no such reactions before
I've had the same feeling. Town has every reason to be stoked and rejuvenated today.

Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]

Posted: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:48 pm
by tutuu
Made wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:43 pm Also, if assume Tutuu and Nutella are town, we also assume mafia hasn’t use their vig shot yet


Does that seem likely?
Based on how far off based we were, that seems consistent to me. No need to use it to you need to silence someone

Cool thing tho is if this is true, we can feel more confident in Tutuu and Nutella reads when two kill happen in one night.
assuming both me and nutella are town, its possible they used one of their extra kp night 1 on nutella. that or they holstered

depending on how today's yeet go, its also possible that, spf most likely dies but she could block one of the two kps night 3 if mafia decide to split them and/or the vig is a likely jk target. and then we wouldnt know cuz spf would die and its probably not wise of her to claim who's shes jailkeeping beforehand

Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]

Posted: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:50 pm
by NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
Spf should just rand between saving Michelle and made imo. Highest chance to get a save off successfully.

Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]

Posted: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:50 pm
by tutuu
Michelle wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:43 pm I don't remember any dream from Tutuu in any game, but maybe my memory is tricky, are you telling stories about dreams often @tutuu ?
yes, i talk about them all the time, both in mafia and outside mafia too

on a scale of 1 to 10 how important is this for you?

if its 7 or above then i will try to remember a town game where i talked about a dream and look over my iso and link you the post

i-

i dont think that talking about your dreams is a scumtell though michelle :P

Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]

Posted: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:50 pm
by Made
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:45 pm
tutuu wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:42 pm made and michelle and even spf escaping the poe must have been a huge emotional blow for the wolves. this was such a turnaround

i believe that could be related to the way grogu and DOOM both felt really irked and annoyed towards me without being provoked to do so from my point of view

both of them have been scumread in the past days and have shown no such reactions before
I've had the same feeling. Town has every reason to be stoked and rejuvenated today.
To bounce off of that, today had three turns:
Mafia finding out there’s a jail keeper and not a sick child when nobody died

Town and mafia finding out I was cop and that Michelle was green checked

Town and mafia finding out about SPF and Tutuu

Anyone’s particular reaction between these notes feel awkward?

Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]

Posted: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:51 pm
by tutuu
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:50 pm Spf should just rand between saving Michelle and made imo. Highest chance to get a save off successfully.
lol what?

mafia are always attempting to hit spf. always

spf should try to block the mafia killer and save her ass

Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]

Posted: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:51 pm
by Michelle
Made wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:43 pm Also, if assume Tutuu and Nutella are town, we also assume mafia hasn’t use their vig shot yet


Does that seem likely?
Based on how far off based we were, that seems consistent to me. No need to use it to you need to silence someone

Cool thing tho is if this is true, we can feel more confident in Tutuu and Nutella reads when two kill happen in one night.
IF Nutella is villager she being JKed in N1 she could be the mafia vig target or the factional target
IF she is mafia she can be the vig or the factional killer
About Tutuu is working in the same way.

I think that having the mafia vig shot they knew the setup and they were aware that they may have a hard life when the 2 town PRs will claim or/and share results, so I can bet they used the vig until now, if not in N1, then in N2. Especially after Ellie's flip it would be obvious that the Poe is wrong and the villagers will be more motivated to solve

Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]

Posted: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:53 pm
by JaggedJimmyJay
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:50 pm Spf should just rand between saving Michelle and made imo. Highest chance to get a save off successfully.
I think SPF probably dies if she does that. Why not [try to] stop the killer?

Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]

Posted: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:53 pm
by Made
Michelle wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:51 pm
Made wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:43 pm Also, if assume Tutuu and Nutella are town, we also assume mafia hasn’t use their vig shot yet


Does that seem likely?
Based on how far off based we were, that seems consistent to me. No need to use it to you need to silence someone

Cool thing tho is if this is true, we can feel more confident in Tutuu and Nutella reads when two kill happen in one night.
IF Nutella is villager she being JKed in N1 she could be the mafia vig target or the factional target
IF she is mafia she can be the vig or the factional killer
About Tutuu is working in the same way.

I think that having the mafia vig shot they knew the setup and they were aware that they may have a hard life when the 2 town PRs will claim or/and share results, so I can bet they used the vig until now, if not in N1, then in N2. Especially after Ellie's flip it would be obvious that the Poe is wrong and the villagers will be more motivated to solve
But if they used their vig n2 Tutuu is mafia. I don’t think we get around that, right?

Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]

Posted: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:54 pm
by Michelle
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:50 pm Spf should just rand between saving Michelle and made imo. Highest chance to get a save off successfully.
no, she have to target mafia, I trust her with this

Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]

Posted: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:54 pm
by tutuu
Made wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:50 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:45 pm
tutuu wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:42 pm made and michelle and even spf escaping the poe must have been a huge emotional blow for the wolves. this was such a turnaround

i believe that could be related to the way grogu and DOOM both felt really irked and annoyed towards me without being provoked to do so from my point of view

both of them have been scumread in the past days and have shown no such reactions before
I've had the same feeling. Town has every reason to be stoked and rejuvenated today.
To bounce off of that, today had three turns:
Mafia finding out there’s a jail keeper and not a sick child when nobody died

Town and mafia finding out I was cop and that Michelle was green checked

Town and mafia finding out about SPF and Tutuu

Anyone’s particular reaction between these notes feel awkward?
i find grogu and doom's behaviors weird, alison and dkkoba have had no reactions

Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]

Posted: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:55 pm
by JaggedJimmyJay
Made wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:50 pm To bounce off of that, today had three turns:
Mafia finding out there’s a jail keeper and not a sick child when nobody died

Town and mafia finding out I was cop and that Michelle was green checked

Town and mafia finding out about SPF and Tutuu

Anyone’s particular reaction between these notes feel awkward?
I'm trying not to dig my heels to deep into any theory like this while I work on a detached assessment of the game. With a gun to my head though I think Omega's reception of events has been the most awkward. Alison's has been pretty subdued as well.

Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]

Posted: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:55 pm
by Michelle
Made wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:53 pm
Michelle wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:51 pm
Made wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:43 pm Also, if assume Tutuu and Nutella are town, we also assume mafia hasn’t use their vig shot yet


Does that seem likely?
Based on how far off based we were, that seems consistent to me. No need to use it to you need to silence someone

Cool thing tho is if this is true, we can feel more confident in Tutuu and Nutella reads when two kill happen in one night.
IF Nutella is villager she being JKed in N1 she could be the mafia vig target or the factional target
IF she is mafia she can be the vig or the factional killer
About Tutuu is working in the same way.

I think that having the mafia vig shot they knew the setup and they were aware that they may have a hard life when the 2 town PRs will claim or/and share results, so I can bet they used the vig until now, if not in N1, then in N2. Especially after Ellie's flip it would be obvious that the Poe is wrong and the villagers will be more motivated to solve
But if they used their vig n2 Tutuu is mafia. I don’t think we get around that, right?
this is a possibility, less probable just because tutuu has such a villagery tone, but we have to keep it in mind

Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]

Posted: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:57 pm
by Made
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:55 pm
Made wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:50 pm To bounce off of that, today had three turns:
Mafia finding out there’s a jail keeper and not a sick child when nobody died

Town and mafia finding out I was cop and that Michelle was green checked

Town and mafia finding out about SPF and Tutuu

Anyone’s particular reaction between these notes feel awkward?
I'm trying not to dig my heels to deep into any theory like this while I work on a detached assessment of the game. With a gun to my head though I think Omega's reception of events has been the most awkward. Alison's has been pretty subdued as well.
Agreed, Alison is very awkward here.

Reasons I’m voting Alison rn

1. Bad Day on vote record
2. Awkward around the PR reveals

Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]

Posted: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:58 pm
by tutuu
im curious as to hear why would i, as mafia, risk outing myself by doing both the mafia factional kill and the vig on the same night when i know for sure there's a town jailkeeper alive and kicking (would i know for sure? dont remember the matrix off top of my head) and when im consensus top townread by the thread and extremely likely jk target, not even counting my "pr softs" (which was just me being a clown by apparently some people took it seriously)

Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]

Posted: Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:01 pm
by Made
tutuu wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:58 pm im curious as to hear why would i, as mafia, risk outing myself by doing both the mafia factional kill and the vig on the same night when i know for sure there's a town jailkeeper alive and kicking (would i know for sure? dont remember the matrix off top of my head) and when im consensus top townread by the thread and extremely likely jk target, not even counting my "pr softs" (which was just me being a clown by apparently some people took it seriously)
Mafia would know it was between jail keeper or inno child. Point stands. Mafia makes bad plays, but this would be a very bad play

Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]

Posted: Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:02 pm
by tutuu
tutuu wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:58 pm im curious as to hear why would i, as mafia, risk outing myself by doing both the mafia factional kill and the vig on the same night when i know for sure there's a town jailkeeper alive and kicking (would i know for sure? dont remember the matrix off top of my head) and when im consensus top townread by the thread and extremely likely jk target, not even counting my "pr softs" (which was just me being a clown by apparently some people took it seriously)
i wouldnt know for sure. 50/50 between two setups. but in the other setup it dosent even matter. so if im mafia and im deciding if i wanna carry both kills or split it, might as well assume in the jk setup

i dont feel comfortable thinking so hard about what i would do as mafia. being town is stressful as it is. pls stop adding the stress of thinking how id play as mafia on top

Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]

Posted: Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:02 pm
by NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
tutuu wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:51 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:50 pm Spf should just rand between saving Michelle and made imo. Highest chance to get a save off successfully.
lol what?

mafia are always attempting to hit spf. always

spf should try to block the mafia killer and save her ass
There’s probably two kills

Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]

Posted: Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:02 pm
by tutuu
Made wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:01 pm
tutuu wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:58 pm im curious as to hear why would i, as mafia, risk outing myself by doing both the mafia factional kill and the vig on the same night when i know for sure there's a town jailkeeper alive and kicking (would i know for sure? dont remember the matrix off top of my head) and when im consensus top townread by the thread and extremely likely jk target, not even counting my "pr softs" (which was just me being a clown by apparently some people took it seriously)
Mafia would know it was between jail keeper or inno child. Point stands. Mafia makes bad plays, but this would be a very bad play
yea so stop calling me a bad player by scumreading me thanx

Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]

Posted: Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:03 pm
by tutuu
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:02 pm
tutuu wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:51 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:50 pm Spf should just rand between saving Michelle and made imo. Highest chance to get a save off successfully.
lol what?

mafia are always attempting to hit spf. always

spf should try to block the mafia killer and save her ass
There’s probably two kills
ya think? alright thats interesting

Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]

Posted: Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:03 pm
by NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:53 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:50 pm Spf should just rand between saving Michelle and made imo. Highest chance to get a save off successfully.
I think SPF probably dies if she does that. Why not [try to] stop the killer?
Same answer as to tutu, there’s probably two kills.

Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]

Posted: Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:04 pm
by tutuu
spf should still aim to stop the killer, that can indirectly save michelle or maid if there are 2 kills

even if it was mod confirmed that mafia for sure will have 2 kills tonight i would argue that spf trying to stop the killer is the highest ev play

Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]

Posted: Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:05 pm
by NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
tutuu wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:03 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:02 pm
tutuu wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:51 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:50 pm Spf should just rand between saving Michelle and made imo. Highest chance to get a save off successfully.
lol what?

mafia are always attempting to hit spf. always

spf should try to block the mafia killer and save her ass
There’s probably two kills
ya think? alright thats interesting
Yeah very likely imo, much more likely there’s two kills than that they wasted a shot

Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]

Posted: Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:05 pm
by Michelle
tutuu wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:02 pm
tutuu wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:58 pm im curious as to hear why would i, as mafia, risk outing myself by doing both the mafia factional kill and the vig on the same night when i know for sure there's a town jailkeeper alive and kicking (would i know for sure? dont remember the matrix off top of my head) and when im consensus top townread by the thread and extremely likely jk target, not even counting my "pr softs" (which was just me being a clown by apparently some people took it seriously)
i wouldnt know for sure. 50/50 between two setups. but in the other setup it dosent even matter. so if im mafia and im deciding if i wanna carry both kills or split it, might as well assume in the jk setup

i dont feel comfortable thinking so hard about what i would do as mafia. being town is stressful as it is. pls stop adding the stress of thinking how id play as mafia on top
what is more stressful for you, being town or mafia?

Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]

Posted: Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:05 pm
by NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
tutuu wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:04 pm spf should still aim to stop the killer, that can indirectly save michelle or maid if there are 2 kills

even if it was mod confirmed that mafia for sure will have 2 kills tonight i would argue that spf trying to stop the killer is the highest ev play
You would be wrong

Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]

Posted: Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:06 pm
by Michelle
actually guessing if mafia used or not the vig shot is not what we have to do now

Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]

Posted: Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:07 pm
by JaggedJimmyJay
Alison and Omega may legitimately be a bad fit together. More later, but here have a hype post while I work.

Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]

Posted: Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:08 pm
by tutuu
Michelle wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:05 pm
tutuu wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:02 pm
tutuu wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:58 pm im curious as to hear why would i, as mafia, risk outing myself by doing both the mafia factional kill and the vig on the same night when i know for sure there's a town jailkeeper alive and kicking (would i know for sure? dont remember the matrix off top of my head) and when im consensus top townread by the thread and extremely likely jk target, not even counting my "pr softs" (which was just me being a clown by apparently some people took it seriously)
i wouldnt know for sure. 50/50 between two setups. but in the other setup it dosent even matter. so if im mafia and im deciding if i wanna carry both kills or split it, might as well assume in the jk setup

i dont feel comfortable thinking so hard about what i would do as mafia. being town is stressful as it is. pls stop adding the stress of thinking how id play as mafia on top
what is more stressful for you, being town or mafia?
i have had 36 town games or so, then i randed that scum game i linked u, now this is my what 6th 7th 8th town rand in a row? lost track

i cant rly answer since i dont really get a fair amount of distribution of rands

the mafia game was fun cuz it was a breath of fresh air and i didnt find it stressful

if i had an equal distribution i would probably find being mafia more stressful

Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]

Posted: Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:11 pm
by tutuu
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:07 pm Alison and Omega may legitimately be a bad fit together. More later, but here have a hype post while I work.
ill be interested to hear

Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]

Posted: Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:17 pm
by tutuu
Image

sort by postcount, become mafia god

Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]

Posted: Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:19 pm
by JaggedJimmyJay
tutuu seems town right now, and I may move her out of the POE for Esooa

Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]

Posted: Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:19 pm
by NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
Logic for why the mafia probably still have their vig shot is

If tutu is town:

You don’t use a vig shot on nutella N1, have it be blocked, then shoot tutu the next night, if they did this it’s laughably bad, thus they still have their vig shot

If tutu is mafia:

Tutu carries both KP? Lol no. Thus they still have their vig shot


So as you can see regardless of tutu’s alignment it’s very likely that mafia still have their vig shot

Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]

Posted: Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:19 pm
by tutuu
shocked jjj is 3rd top poster. i always thought that he's sort of out there, lurking in the shadows. you sneaky boi jayjay

Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]

Posted: Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:21 pm
by NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
If this game is literally just 4/6 of the lowest posters (with the other two being dead) that would be wild

Also shoutout to Mac still being top six with one day played

Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]

Posted: Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:21 pm
by JaggedJimmyJay
tutuu wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:19 pm shocked jjj is 3rd top poster. i always thought that he's sort of out there, lurking in the shadows. you sneaky boi jayjay
I think we're often not online at the same time. It's okay if I'm hard to notice. *patpat*