The Syndicate

Posted: **Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:20 pm**

ok alison different question

you have precedent for tutuu to be more likely in scumrange here than for me to be in mine

why do you think i'm more likely? just factoring in the 50/50 she was saved rather than blocked?

Posted: **Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:21 pm**

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:08 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:04 pm @jagged -

would you mind walking me through the thought process that's making you heavily consider an alison!town world right now? is it because the arguments she made on the last page were particularly convincing to you? what resonated?
It was my analyses of her interactions within my POE. I began assessing with this POE: [Alison, Omega, Grogu, DK, Esooa] and found that Alison is a poor fit with both Omega and Esooa. So for her to be mafia, if my assessments are accurate, she would have to be teamed with exactly Grogu and DK. That is on its own power unlikely, and if not then that means 1) she's town, 2) my analyses of Omega/Esooa were flawed, or 3) she would fit better with someone outside my POE instead.

I haven't looked into #3 yet. But then she popped in with her legacy and I think it looks pretty authentic. So my current feeling is that #1 is the answer.

thanks for the explanation, just acknowledging that ive seen this

Posted: **Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:21 pm**

you say I "fit the deepwolf archetype better" but what on earth does that mean when i'm out of scumrange and tutuu isn't

Posted: **Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:23 pm**

mmm i'm still leaning town on nutella in spite of myself. i've been entertaining and chewing on the tinfoil on her but it doesn't feel like a good fit - beyond her broadly meeting the "scum archetype" that a number of people do right now

Posted: **Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:24 pm**

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:14 pm alison/doom/koba/esooa/grogu/jagged/nanook/nutella/tutuu

i feel comfortable removing nanook and DOOM from that pool right now, pending re-evaluation on LYLO. it feels weird to remove DOOM from that pool, but that's where my brain is taking me

so that leaves alison/koba/esooa/grogu/jagged/nutella/tutuu

now we're getting warmer, but i hesitate to comfortably remove any more names from that pool. grogu's appeals to me feel so heartfelt that i'm almost tempted to, but i feel that would be a mistake if i think about the game from a holistic perspective. one of koba or esooa would probably be the first names i would look at to further remove from this pool

Hi, I’m ok being in the scum pool. No offense positive
I would only advise you do NOT take essoa out of it. I want to keep an eye on her and I prefer we are together in this scum pool where she belongs. I believe she will be the sacrifice we make today and we will bake her and eat her flesh tonight. She can be our Jesus bread thingy

Posted: **Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:25 pm**

in order to not be too hypocritical (hi papa sloon) i prob should consider esooa more (and this is another one idk why alison isn't) bc she fits the same ""archetype"" of having pushed tons of townies

and mac warned us about her scumrange

Posted: **Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:25 pm**

Grogu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:24 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:14 pm alison/doom/koba/esooa/grogu/jagged/nanook/nutella/tutuu

i feel comfortable removing nanook and DOOM from that pool right now, pending re-evaluation on LYLO. it feels weird to remove DOOM from that pool, but that's where my brain is taking me

so that leaves alison/koba/esooa/grogu/jagged/nutella/tutuu

now we're getting warmer, but i hesitate to comfortably remove any more names from that pool. grogu's appeals to me feel so heartfelt that i'm almost tempted to, but i feel that would be a mistake if i think about the game from a holistic perspective. one of koba or esooa would probably be the first names i would look at to further remove from this pool
Hi, I’m ok being in the scum pool. No offense positive
I would only advise you do NOT take essoa out of it. I want to keep an eye on her and I prefer we are together in this scum pool where she belongs. I believe she will be the sacrifice we make today and we will bake her and eat her flesh tonight. She can be our Jesus bread thingy

lmfao i unironically love playing with you grogu, even if youre mafia

Posted: **Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:30 pm**

Alison wrote: ↑Sat Jan 23, 2021 9:29 pm
Esooa wrote: ↑Sat Jan 23, 2021 9:24 pm @Allison reads list pls unless you've posted one recently
Towncore: DK, Esooa, nanook, nutella, tutuu, JJJ
Knocking on the door: SPF, DOOM
Townread: Grogu
POE: Michelle, Made, Ellie

DOOM and Grogu move around a bit, but this is roughly where I have them at right now. JJJ has been too in-sync with me today for me to leave him out of the towncore, and I don't think mafia is in a good enough position that they can afford to just have the exact same stance as me to pocket me. If JJJ is scum he has to push his own agenda, not just sheep me. I've had a couple of interactions with SPF that make me more confident about her, and that's why she's knocking at the towncore's door. I particularly liked the "chill" vibe I got from her when I quizzed her about how she feels about people not clearing her.

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Jan 24, 2021 5:07 am Grogu has moved in my reads. I'm still conflicted because his actual pushes are kinda opportunistic on a base level but I don't have a hard time believing he would do this as town and he comes off as honest and transparent in his posting.

I'm seeing more tinfoil towards the "middle" slots like me/SPF/JJJ/nook. I currently have townreads on all of these players and no particular inclination to tinfoil any of them.

^^two posts from alison from yesterday that pinged me at the time, and ping me slightly more now. they are focused on asserting the incorrect consensus POE while downplaying the possibility of tinfoils in the "middle" slots.

in fairness to alison, she started entertaining "tinfoil" shortly after making this post, but i want to present these for posterity's sake

Posted: **Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:31 pm**

Do Grogu and DaughterOfOmega fit together as mafia teammates?

From Grogu about Omega

Spoiler: show

This post implies Grogu doesn't know Omega elsewhere (e.g. mafia chat). So take that wifom or leave it. Earlier in the game I suggested this was cause to separate the two, because it would feel gross if Grogu used kind words like this for any kind of Mafia in-game purpose. But at this point I can't rely on that judgment, it's just wifom.

Spoiler: show

The Omega post in this exchange is the more interesting one, so I'll talk about that on her end of the analysis. Grogu's post exists.

Spoiler: show

Another semi-wifom thing like the first post. Whatever.

Spoiler: show

Grogu was very positive in his read on Omega. The reason was vague. It's brazen for teammates, but it wouldn't surprise me.

Spoiler: show

Grogu's Day 3 read is almost the opposite, so that was abrupt.

Spoiler: show

Now Omega is town again. This one's difficult to follow.

Spoiler: show

More "do they have mafia chat" wifom if you care.

Spoiler: show

Not sure what the read is here, but the implication seems to be trust?

Spoiler: show

More overt public appeals. Maybe a decent sign they're not teamed. Hard to say that with conviction.

From Omega about Grogu

Spoiler: show

This is probably the most interesting post in the review. If they're teammates, then Omega joked about Grogu "openwolfing" while clearly doing it herself. I don't know anything about whether that's her style, but at this stage I'm inclined to at least say it could be.

Spoiler: show

Grogu got some mentions in early mafia lists or team theories. It's fine but not incompatible.

Spoiler: show

This is merciful to Grogu. Again, I don't mind at face value, but there's no reason that can't be a teammate action.

Spoiler: show

Kinder to Grogu on Day 2, at least a bit. Now he's in the nefarious middle area.

Spoiler: show

Omega defended Michelle by way of her wagon, which included Grogu. Not super meaningful to me.

Spoiler: show

Grogu is featured in the Day 3 "turbo easy" solve. Okay.

Spoiler: show

I'd like to see what makes you feel this way, Omega (like you don't fit with Grogu).

Conclusion

There's not a lot happening here. Most of the "good stuff" is pure wifom, so I am not inclined to play that game right now. Grogu's read on Omega is all over the place. Omega hasn't taken a terribly aggressive approach with Grogu as a suspect. I cannot comfortably separate them.

Posted: **Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:32 pm**

I still want to vote Alison for the dropping of the town read of me for no seeable reason other than needing a spot in poe

Posted: **Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:32 pm**

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:25 pm
Grogu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:24 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:14 pm alison/doom/koba/esooa/grogu/jagged/nanook/nutella/tutuu

i feel comfortable removing nanook and DOOM from that pool right now, pending re-evaluation on LYLO. it feels weird to remove DOOM from that pool, but that's where my brain is taking me

so that leaves alison/koba/esooa/grogu/jagged/nutella/tutuu

now we're getting warmer, but i hesitate to comfortably remove any more names from that pool. grogu's appeals to me feel so heartfelt that i'm almost tempted to, but i feel that would be a mistake if i think about the game from a holistic perspective. one of koba or esooa would probably be the first names i would look at to further remove from this pool
Hi, I’m ok being in the scum pool. No offense positive
I would only advise you do NOT take essoa out of it. I want to keep an eye on her and I prefer we are together in this scum pool where she belongs. I believe she will be the sacrifice we make today and we will bake her and eat her flesh tonight. She can be our Jesus bread thingy
lmfao i unironically love playing with you grogu, even if youre mafia

That’s so sweet.
You do not know yet but I am ToWn!
Focaccia bread nasty town, not scum. If I was scum I think my old friends would be so proud. I am not a mastermind scum or mafia player... trust me!
I do enjoy playing here, it is different but a lot more personal. You almost get to know strangers personally it feels like. I have spoken to some of you more than my real friends in the past 12 months :/ weird dynamic

Posted: **Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:35 pm**

Like nutella has been overall more town to my pov, so it's hard not to vote Ali, when she goes on Nutella over some of my actual mafia reads

Posted: **Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:35 pm**

It's weird to me because why does mafia Alison choose Nutella to go on, when that is a harder road than others.

Maybe she is town? hmm

Posted: **Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:40 pm**

DaughterOfOmega wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:35 pm It's weird to me because why does mafia Alison choose Nutella to go on, when that is a harder road than others.

Maybe she is town? hmm

perhaps thats what she wants you to think

Posted: **Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:40 pm**

nutella, what do you think of alison's push on you? you seemed willing to consider that alison could be town just a little bit ago - do you still feel that way?

Posted: **Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:41 pm**

i mean actually i think the two megaposts are a decent point towards alison being mafia because crafting those kinds of narratives is absolutely her scum meta and the fact that she waited so long to post after the pr stuff started and crafted this very long "here's why i'm right and you should listen" novel points to her being scum cooking it up

Posted: **Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:43 pm**

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:40 pm nutella, what do you think of alison's push on you? you seemed willing to consider that alison could be town just a little bit ago - do you still feel that way?

i've always been willing to consider it but i think it's quite unlikely at this point

the push on me strengthens that a bit but i think i would still feel the same if she was pushing more on tutuu or esooa or whatever, it's the nature of her crafting a narrative

in the world she is in fact town it's pretty bad bc people will want to sheep her and then we'd get yet another mischop into lylo

but i think she's just trying to save herself here

Posted: **Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:43 pm**

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:41 pm i mean actually i think the two megaposts are a decent point towards alison being mafia because crafting those kinds of narratives is absolutely her scum meta and the fact that she waited so long to post after the pr stuff started and crafted this very long "here's why i'm right and you should listen" novel points to her being scum cooking it up

didn't you characterize alison's megaposts as "fairly convincing" on http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 94#p710094? i am confused

Posted: **Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:44 pm**

grogu switching to shading Alison after town reading her at a point he should be town reading her more is basically outing and a strong affirmation Alison is correct imo. In short I'm currently sheeping Alison

Posted: **Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:46 pm**

Do Grogu and DkKoba fit together as mafia teammates?

From Grogu about DK

Spoiler: show

I believe this is Grogu's first mention of DK, and it's on Day 2. At least that jives with what Grogu actually said -- he hadn't ready anything. A not insignificant part of me wants to take that literally.

Spoiler: show

This whole stretch makes me laugh. I fear the "E-4 Mafia" joke is lost on non-military people. Anyway I won't read into this too deeply.

Spoiler: show

On Day 3 DK is on Grogu's shit list. The read is not a very developed one, but it exists.

From DK about Grogu

Spoiler: show

Conclusion

The most notable thing to me is easily that neither of them mentioned the other even once until well into Day 2. We can interpret that as 1) they're mafia teammates and are nervous to interact, or 2) they spent much of this game literally not giving a damn about one another (as non-mafia teammates), probably even forgetting they're in the game.

Honestly? I believe more in #2. That's a somewhat risky read given the wifom, so I invite protests.

Posted: **Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:47 pm**

If DK and Grogu don't fit together, the [Alison has no team in my POE] prophecy is fully realized. Either the POE is shit or she is just town.

Posted: **Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:57 pm**

[VOTE: nutella] aubergine

Posted: **Wed Jan 27, 2021 12:03 am**

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:43 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:41 pm i mean actually i think the two megaposts are a decent point towards alison being mafia because crafting those kinds of narratives is absolutely her scum meta and the fact that she waited so long to post after the pr stuff started and crafted this very long "here's why i'm right and you should listen" novel points to her being scum cooking it up
didn't you characterize alison's megaposts as "fairly convincing" on http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 94#p710094? i am confused

yes that's exactly the problem

it's alison

Posted: **Wed Jan 27, 2021 12:03 am**

What is nice for the future, and terrible for today is that a lot of grouping/agendas are being pushed. If we see a flip from Ali/Nutella we get a lot of info and turbo bake the mafia

though nutella doesn't tell us a ton, ali def does

Posted: **Wed Jan 27, 2021 12:04 am**

i've been pocketed by alison every time she's been wolf here and i'm finally starting to learn some of her tricks i think

Posted: **Wed Jan 27, 2021 12:07 am**

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:08 pm Esooa doesn't really fit for a couple of reasons: she doesn't seem that invested in controlling the narrative today, there's been enough rage and controversy over her that I think her teammates would proabbly have shut down if she was scum, and her pushes are chill and don't have the brute force vibe that the other three do.

this wasn't enough for alison to dismiss looking at a deepwolf esooa world

what "brute force" do i have compared to esooa? i was pretty forceful about michelle early d2 and backed off of even that, otherwise been pretty chill

idgi

Posted: **Wed Jan 27, 2021 12:07 am**

and esooa was for a while exactly analogous with her push on eliie to mine on michelle

Posted: **Wed Jan 27, 2021 12:07 am**

nutella wrote: ↑Wed Jan 27, 2021 12:03 am
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:43 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:41 pm i mean actually i think the two megaposts are a decent point towards alison being mafia because crafting those kinds of narratives is absolutely her scum meta and the fact that she waited so long to post after the pr stuff started and crafted this very long "here's why i'm right and you should listen" novel points to her being scum cooking it up
didn't you characterize alison's megaposts as "fairly convincing" on http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 94#p710094? i am confused
yes that's exactly the problem

it's alison

i'm just a little confused about how you got from the thought process of: "alison's wallposts are convincing" to "alison's wallposts are scum-indicative"

her wallposts would be convincing as either alignment, right? so what about the wallpost makes it specifically scum indicative? are you arguing that she doesn't focus on narratives as much as town?

Posted: **Wed Jan 27, 2021 12:09 am**

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:08 pm The wide variety of people she's pushed on (all with equal conviction)

also not true

but to the extent it is, yeah i change my mind a lot and come up with different potential solves and believe them equally at different times so

Posted: **Wed Jan 27, 2021 12:11 am**

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed Jan 27, 2021 12:07 am
nutella wrote: ↑Wed Jan 27, 2021 12:03 am
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:43 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:41 pm i mean actually i think the two megaposts are a decent point towards alison being mafia because crafting those kinds of narratives is absolutely her scum meta and the fact that she waited so long to post after the pr stuff started and crafted this very long "here's why i'm right and you should listen" novel points to her being scum cooking it up
didn't you characterize alison's megaposts as "fairly convincing" on http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 94#p710094? i am confused
yes that's exactly the problem

it's alison
i'm just a little confused about how you got from the thought process of: "alison's wallposts are convincing" to "alison's wallposts are scum-indicative"

her wallposts would be convincing as either alignment, right? so what about the wallpost makes it specifically scum indicative? are you arguing that she doesn't focus on narratives as much as town?

well that was only my reaction to the first one, before she posted the solve one

and i'm breaking down some rhetorical issues with the second one rn that feel more manipulative

but also it's that i realized how she had so deliberately taken the time to craft these and post them all in one go, with no prior indication of the progression of her solve this day

Posted: **Wed Jan 27, 2021 12:14 am**

I'm kinda scum reading the nature of Nutellas response here. I don't like how she believes Alison to currently be scum, but is trying to discredit her world view on the basis of itself. I'd find that if someone is scum, the world view naturally has a scum agenda, and if you wish to prove Alison is scum, you angle not to discredit her world view but first saying why she is scum; why her reasons for saying she is town are invalid. I think Nutella going to why Alisons world view is incorrect is necessary for Nutella to do, in a world Nutella is scum. @staypositivefriend does this make sense?

Posted: **Wed Jan 27, 2021 12:15 am**

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:31 pm Do Grogu and DaughterOfOmega fit together as mafia teammates?

From Grogu about Omega

Spoiler: show
Spoiler: show
Grogu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 8:24 pm
DaughterOfOmega wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 6:39 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 6:32 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 6:31 pm so in other news i was inspired to figure out who daughterofomega is and uh

interesting
Spill
I used to go by AoBenjamin in 2015-2017 on a place called 2+2.
In 2016-2018 was where most people know me from, where my name was changed to BenjiAO.
In early 2019, I was slowly transitioning my gender, and now I go by Rach or Rachel most commonly.

DaughterOfOmega is a reference to my original online tag, which was SonsOfOmega, in which I shared with my brother. It means a lot to me, and as I no longer am male, I don't maintain the Sons part anymore.

If people were wondering who I am, it's not like I was hiding it, so I find Nutella's post somewhat awkward. If you are too bring up who I am, why would you not say it? Just is annoying to bring it up in that manner, as if it's bad to be known.
Interesting story. I have seen you before, glad to hear you are doing good and have completed your transition. I hope you are happy!

This post implies Grogu doesn't know Omega elsewhere (e.g. mafia chat). So take that wifom or leave it. Earlier in the game I suggested this was cause to separate the two, because it would feel gross if Grogu used kind words like this for any kind of Mafia in-game purpose. But at this point I can't rely on that judgment, it's just wifom.

Spoiler: show
Grogu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 8:38 pm
DaughterOfOmega wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 8:32 pm I think Grogu is the mafia who will be found first. They are kind of openwolfing to an extent that I enjoy, and I won't push them personally.
Why? I promise Grogu is ToWn!

“ Grogu Town I am”

The Omega post in this exchange is the more interesting one, so I'll talk about that on her end of the analysis. Grogu's post exists.

Spoiler: show
Grogu wrote: ↑Wed Jan 20, 2021 11:49 pm Is doom Omega?
Positive did you make a list of yours reads on me?
I see you did one for omega

Another semi-wifom thing like the first post. Whatever.

Spoiler: show
Grogu wrote: ↑Sat Jan 23, 2021 7:43 am I like omega. Not sure why

Grogu wrote: ↑Sat Jan 23, 2021 1:32 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Jan 23, 2021 1:26 pm
Grogu wrote: ↑Sat Jan 23, 2021 1:25 pm I am ToWn. I believe Omega is confirm ToWn also, if you believe Grogu and her are teamed is because we are.
Does michelle post a lot as scum? That’s a lot of posts today.
What makes you so confident about Omega?

I've seen Michelle post a lot more as town than as mafia, though I suspect she is capable of both.
Ok. What if I am wrong? I will be sad. I don’t know what to do
I like her, posts feel not planned and nice. That is all I will say.

Grogu was very positive in his read on Omega. The reason was vague. It's brazen for teammates, but it wouldn't surprise me.

Spoiler: show
Grogu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:19 pm
DaughterOfOmega wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 1:21 pm my hope is that Alison or Grogu flip mafia, so that I can post my interactions with them and be town lol
This is very bad post. Not only is clear I am town, but Alison is clearly town also. This is concerning post, didn’t you post you used to be a monster at this game? You are as clueless as I am.
Monster inc. type of monster you are

Grogu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:22 pm
tutuu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 1:30 pm if either doom or grogu is mafia the other one is extremely likely to be mafia imo
I am town so that leaves omega. I could see her being scum given that she keeps pushing consensus people such as myself. I don’t think she has a reason to even call me scum.

Grogu's Day 3 read is almost the opposite, so that was abrupt.

Spoiler: show
Grogu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:47 pm This is the most I ever posted on a game by far I believe. I must have like 200 posts. That’s ridiculous.
Also I have been forthcoming the whole game. I have struggled to see “scum”.
I have felt that neither do most players here as shown by who we baked so far.
I think the leaders are leading us to hell.

That being said:
I don’t see why tutuu gets shot by scum...
I believe she’s likely scum, but I don’t know how to prove that or look at posts and say: there I found the clues.
People I don’t trust either:
koba, jagged, esso and the aforementioned tuttuu but this later one I’m not sure about.
Trust me or not, we are all wrong and I highly believe Alison is another miss. They are like me and omega just easy low hanging fruits. If any of us is scum is likely omega since someone said he was a great player and I have yet to see that so he’s likely fooling us.

Now Omega is town again. This one's difficult to follow.

Spoiler: show
Grogu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 7:00 pm
DaughterOfOmega wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:14 pm Okay, I tried my best to play this game and not deal with mental issues. This has not happened, though I did my best to avoid that. I will ask that you kill me today, I do not wish to be rude and obviously somehow I have been, and it's my fault. Bye
Omega nooo come back. Is not that serious, just ignore tuttu. I’m sure they don’t mean to offend just come across as rude is all.

More "do they have mafia chat" wifom if you care.

Spoiler: show
Grogu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 7:04 pm
DaughterOfOmega wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:26 pm I will be doing four deep ISO dives into players I think seriously need to be reviewed. I will be doing nothing else during this game day.

Let me state this first, I am not doing any of these deep dives to get someone baked. I want to be voted and killed; I don’t want to socially interact in the game currently. These are for people to look at for what I think after I flip town. I don’t like being told that I am not a positive in game, and I want to make sure I at least help town win the best I can. Do not ask me questions or ping me please. I will be posting 4 deep dives hopefully.
@DaughterOfOmega dont waste your valuable time in me please. Trust me I am town.
Focus on more unconventional targets.
Look at made, essoa, jagged, tuttu etc

Not sure what the read is here, but the implication seems to be trust?

Spoiler: show
Grogu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 7:46 pm
DaughterOfOmega wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 7:40 pm Grogu breakdown. 150 posts as of making this.
Town reads d0 (Longcon, SPF)
Votes/Mafia reads d0(Long Con, Michelle, Nanook, Macdougal
D1 Town(No reads posted)
D1 Votes/Mafia(No reads posted, voted Michelle)
D2 Town (Esooa, SPf, Tutuu, Made, DOOM)
D2 Votes/Mafia (Michelle, Ellie)

Personal thought is Grogu is much less likely to be mafia, when compared to Koba/Alison. I don't know if I follow the logic Grogu has a lot, but if he is mafia he is town siding on his town reads. He goes to defend town at points where I don't see a mafia doing so.
I scum read Mac and nanook? Interesting didn’t know that or forgot.
Good stuff overall my friend

Grogu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 7:49 pm I Think is essoa. Omega let’s vote essoa together, POE gang

More overt public appeals. Maybe a decent sign they're not teamed. Hard to say that with conviction.

From Omega about Grogu

Spoiler: show
Spoiler: show
DaughterOfOmega wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 8:32 pm I think Grogu is the mafia who will be found first. They are kind of openwolfing to an extent that I enjoy, and I won't push them personally.

This is probably the most interesting post in the review. If they're teammates, then Omega joked about Grogu "openwolfing" while clearly doing it herself. I don't know anything about whether that's her style, but at this stage I'm inclined to at least say it could be.

Spoiler: show
DaughterOfOmega wrote: ↑Wed Jan 20, 2021 2:39 pm Macdougal
Michelle
Grogu
Jay
Nutella

Is my list of current suspects, I'm not sure where I'd vote at the moment, I want to see more from them all

DaughterOfOmega wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 2:40 am I'm currently at Tutuu/Grogu/Mac/+1

Grogu got some mentions in early mafia lists or team theories. It's fine but not incompatible.

Spoiler: show
DaughterOfOmega wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:36 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:34 pm
DaughterOfOmega wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:33 pm I don't like killing Ellie over scum reads I have meh
if you could vig kill someone immediately who would you kill
Every time someone asked me this, I used to say "myself" for the memes

but I am no longer a depressed kid so no more memes

I'd choose LC, I think I can give Grogu a bit more time though he'd be second

This is merciful to Grogu. Again, I don't mind at face value, but there's no reason that can't be a teammate action.

Spoiler: show
DaughterOfOmega wrote: ↑Sat Jan 23, 2021 2:15 am I find that my reads are so contrarian that posting them would just get me scum read, but I don't play mafia like a scared person.

SPF
Alison
Koba
Esooa
Michelle
tutuu
Nanook
Grogu
Jay
Made
Nutella
Ellie

Kinder to Grogu on Day 2, at least a bit. Now he's in the nefarious middle area.

Spoiler: show
DaughterOfOmega wrote: ↑Sat Jan 23, 2021 3:33 pm
Michelle wrote: ↑Sat Jan 23, 2021 3:31 pm
DaughterOfOmega wrote: ↑Sat Jan 23, 2021 3:29 pm I don't feel confident in my reads, although I am hesitant to vote off Michelle because the others I see as sus are voting Michelle

tricky
Who are your suspects?
Ellie Nutella Grogu Nanook could all be mafia fmpov

Makes voting you not so good

Omega defended Michelle by way of her wagon, which included Grogu. Not super meaningful to me.

Spoiler: show
DaughterOfOmega wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:31 am I think the game is like turbo easy

Alison
Koba
Grogu
Jay
nanook

do we have 5 kills? if so gg

Grogu is featured in the Day 3 "turbo easy" solve. Okay.

Spoiler: show
DaughterOfOmega wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 1:21 pm my hope is that Alison or Grogu flip mafia, so that I can post my interactions with them and be town lol

I'd like to see what makes you feel this way, Omega (like you don't fit with Grogu).

Conclusion

There's not a lot happening here. Most of the "good stuff" is pure wifom, so I am not inclined to play that game right now. Grogu's read on Omega is all over the place. Omega hasn't taken a terribly aggressive approach with Grogu as a suspect. I cannot comfortably separate them.

Hello my Ungreen friend,
You mistaken the read on my good friend Omega the Goddess to be scum read. If you read between the lines you can see it was a simple hypothetical in which someone said there were 2 scum between Grogu, Alison and omega. I simply defended all 3 of us and said “hypothetical” if one of us ***WAS*** scum then is likely her. (Omega).
But I do not believe this to be the case. Fyi

Posted: **Wed Jan 27, 2021 12:19 am**

Alright @Grogu, duly noted. Would you say that your read on Omega has been mostly town all game or no?

Posted: **Wed Jan 27, 2021 12:21 am**

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:58 pm
Grogu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:55 pm Copy:
Esooa is pushing Grogu and me moderately hard. Dkkoba is pushing anyone that pushes them fiercely. nutella is pushing me fiercely, and tutuu is pushing DOOM fiercely and me moderately. The two possible patterns that match what I'd expect to see from a deepwolf needing to exert control over the game are nutella and tutuu. Esooa doesn't really fit for a couple of reasons: she doesn't seem that invested in controlling the narrative today, there's been enough rage and controversy over her that I think her teammates would proabbly have shut down if she was scum, and her pushes are chill and don't have the brute force vibe that the other three do.

This is troubling me. If Ali is town, why is essoa pushing me and her not exactly what she said scum would do???
Essoa is pushing town/town. I feel like she’s giving essoa a free pass and being super soft. It is just me?
It's a relative comparison. The consensus POE in this game has been pretty rotten; everyone's pushed town. You've pushed Michelle yourself. The point is not to say "oh, so and so has scumread a townie, so they must be scum" - the point is to look at the quantity of bad scumreads, weigh whether or not those scumreads were there by accident or bad reads or something more, and see how hard the scumreads were pushed. I don't know you're town for sure, so in my mind Esooa has pushed one unresolved slot and one town slot moderately hard. That is probably on par for the rest of the game, so she doesn't stand out as being suspicious from that context alone. I go into more detail why nutella's pushes stand out to me - it's because of the sheer quantity and variety of them.

again, why do you think me rapidly changing around to different suspects is scummy? I've been kind of grasping at lots of different things that have caught my interest this game because with no red flips yet it's been hard to find the right starting point for solving and I've tried poking a bunch of different places to feel around for what makes sense. don't you think I'd be a bit more consistent with my pushes as scum?

Posted: **Wed Jan 27, 2021 12:23 am**

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:00 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:57 pm I think my view of Esooa right now is somewhat analogous to those who suspect nutella instead. Esooa is the consensus game-long town read that I struggle to trust right now.

I haven't dug deep into various team possibilities for her yet though.
I asked Grogu the question about Esooa's teammates precisely because one of the things I found when doing associatives was that Esooa doesn't fit with many teams, and most of the teams she fits in involve you lol. (And Grogu, which is why the question is fairly important for them to answer.)

aren't jay/grogu two of your main "remaining fill" wolf candidates

if they make sense with esooa what is stopping that from being the team in your mind

and don't just say "esooa is townie" because *i'm* fucking townie

Posted: **Wed Jan 27, 2021 12:23 am**

Esooa wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:44 pm grogu switching to shading Alison after town reading her at a point he should be town reading her more is basically outing and a strong affirmation Alison is correct imo. In short I'm currently sheeping Alison

This is lies. Again
Why are others allowing this flaming lies by esso

Posted: **Wed Jan 27, 2021 12:24 am**

Grogu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:04 pm Positive my friend,
Who has been protecting me? Couldn’t it be that I have been town this whole time?
You seem to fail math. There are exactly 3 scum, if I was one I would have 2 partners defending me???

Explain how 2 people can control all the votes? This doesn’t make any sense. I’m new at mafia but math I learned before elementary school. Do the math again and rethink that paragraph please. Maybe you just forgot the amount of scum in this game or your point was that all 3 scum are protecting town grogu?
Then tell us by name who are those scum protecting me. Thanks positive friend

i think we could probably just chop grogu for lying

he's not new to mafia

Posted: **Wed Jan 27, 2021 12:24 am**

lmfao nice crosspost

Posted: **Wed Jan 27, 2021 12:25 am**

Do Grogu and Esooa fit together as mafia teammates?

From Grogu about Esooa

Spoiler: show

A couple early exchanges. Grogu's response kinda looks non-teamed to me. If he's mafia then this flippant stuff is more likely to be directed at town.

Spoiler: show

Day 2 stuff. The first thing looks kinda non-teamed to me too. I'm hesitant to roll with that for such a nothing post in this game state though.

Spoiler: show

Herpty derpty doo

Spoiler: show

lol doesn't look teamed

Spoiler: show

Gorgeous

Spoiler: show

Grogu seems legitimately clueless regarding what Esooa is about.

Spoiler: show

Grogu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:31 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 2:26 pm
Made wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 5:27 am
Esooa wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 5:05 am
Made wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:56 am but yeah, most situations where nutella is mafia, tutuu is town I think? this part wasn't very math-y but make sense i think
[VOTE: Tutuu] aubergine
not really a valid way to look at it. It was a PR hunt kill if they targeted tutuu. Avoiding considering this in "who would mafia kill" is flawed
working on a proof, but in all situations where this was a hunt kill (beside them actually believe her joke post at the beginning of the game, which is RIDDDICUULLAAASSSSS ( @JaggedJimmyJay @NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME ) Tutuu is bad.

As of this point, the only person to indicate in thread they believed that I was a PR before I revealed I was one was you and SPF (who is town). This means if Essoa is bad, Tutuu is bad (AKA the Esooa Association)

The Esooa Association states that if you-Esooa- are bad, you were incentivized to kill me last night. Because no kill happened last night players (right now just Esooa) who guess i was yesterday a PR are most likely to be bad, and are almost definitely bad with Tutuu
I think locking in the assumption that mafia were PR hunting and that mafia PR hunting looks the way you think it does is is uh

Probably not a good idea
Oh yes esso is in the game. Very scummy early on, looking worse now will all the misses.

Grogu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:47 pm This is the most I ever posted on a game by far I believe. I must have like 200 posts. That’s ridiculous.
Also I have been forthcoming the whole game. I have struggled to see “scum”.
I have felt that neither do most players here as shown by who we baked so far.
I think the leaders are leading us to hell.

That being said:
I don’t see why tutuu gets shot by scum...
I believe she’s likely scum, but I don’t know how to prove that or look at posts and say: there I found the clues.
People I don’t trust either:
koba, jagged, esso and the aforementioned tuttuu but this later one I’m not sure about.
Trust me or not, we are all wrong and I highly believe Alison is another miss. They are like me and omega just easy low hanging fruits. If any of us is scum is likely omega since someone said he was a great player and I have yet to see that so he’s likely fooling us.

Grogu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 7:04 pm
DaughterOfOmega wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:26 pm I will be doing four deep ISO dives into players I think seriously need to be reviewed. I will be doing nothing else during this game day.

Let me state this first, I am not doing any of these deep dives to get someone baked. I want to be voted and killed; I don’t want to socially interact in the game currently. These are for people to look at for what I think after I flip town. I don’t like being told that I am not a positive in game, and I want to make sure I at least help town win the best I can. Do not ask me questions or ping me please. I will be posting 4 deep dives hopefully.
@DaughterOfOmega dont waste your valuable time in me please. Trust me I am town.
Focus on more unconventional targets.
Look at made, essoa, jagged, tuttu etc

Laying "all the misses" at Esooa's feet is another separable moment. If Grogu is mafia, this is just flat hurling blame that belongs to many people.

Spoiler: show

Day 3 vote. I think that's enough to get the gist for Grogu.

From Esooa about Grogu

Spoiler: show

There are a million posts, and given my feelings about Grogu's stuff in this review I don't care to spend an hour on the Esooa portion. I will focus solely on posts I deem the most important.

Spoiler: show

This comes from Day 2. There's a bit of Pepe Silvia going on in the theorizing here, but I interpret it to be relatively neutral with respect to judging Grogu's alignment. The lack of traction on a Grogu wagon may suggest only one mafia among Ellie/Made, or the other implication would be that Grogu is himself mafia (tying to the beginning of Esooa's last line there). She waffled around on it, so I won't say this post is one that separates the two.

Spoiler: show

Grogu was included in this sizable "the rest" pile, like a big POE. It's good to have clarity here since Esooa had previously suggested that Grogu looked towny. This list at least maintains that perspective as low-confidence. Grogu became a POE name in her next reads list (click).

Spoiler: show

Well then there's that, still on Day 2. I'm just gonna shrug about this one.

Spoiler: show

Back down to POE on Day 3. Doesn't feel like an issue to me, but these progressions aren't incompatible.

Spoiler: show

Cool beans. If Esooa is mafia then this looks quite like a smear, so that's something to separate them.

Conclusion

This might be my most confident review so far -- I don't think Esooa and Grogu look like mafia teammates.

Posted: **Wed Jan 27, 2021 12:26 am**

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Jan 27, 2021 12:25 am This might be my most confident review so far -- I don't think Esooa and Grogu look like mafia teammates.

welp

either this is true or the team is exactly these two and jay loooool

Posted: **Wed Jan 27, 2021 12:26 am**

Grogu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:55 pm Copy:
Esooa is pushing Grogu and me moderately hard. Dkkoba is pushing anyone that pushes them fiercely. nutella is pushing me fiercely, and tutuu is pushing DOOM fiercely and me moderately. The two possible patterns that match what I'd expect to see from a deepwolf needing to exert control over the game are nutella and tutuu. Esooa doesn't really fit for a couple of reasons: she doesn't seem that invested in controlling the narrative today, there's been enough rage and controversy over her that I think her teammates would proabbly have shut down if she was scum, and her pushes are chill and don't have the brute force vibe that the other three do.

This is troubling me. If Ali is town, why is essoa pushing me and her not exactly what she said scum would do???
Essoa is pushing town/town. I feel like she’s giving essoa a free pass and being super soft. It is just me?

maybe not, but

"If Ali is town"

pinged me. You quoted Alison, so I'd assume you to be talking to her, and give her input on her thought processes, you are town, and look at this. Instead you talk to the thread at large, where you also say "if Ali is town"

Posted: **Wed Jan 27, 2021 12:26 am**

Esooa wrote: ↑Wed Jan 27, 2021 12:14 am I'm kinda scum reading the nature of Nutellas response here. I don't like how she believes Alison to currently be scum, but is trying to discredit her world view on the basis of itself. I'd find that if someone is scum, the world view naturally has a scum agenda, and if you wish to prove Alison is scum, you angle not to discredit her world view but first saying why she is scum; why her reasons for saying she is town are invalid. I think Nutella going to why Alisons world view is incorrect is necessary for Nutella to do, in a world Nutella is scum. @staypositivefriend does this make sense?

i believe i understand what you're getting at - you're saying that it's scummy that nutella is focusing on poking holes into the perspective that alison outed, as opposed to explaining ~why~ the perspective is coming from a scum-motivated place, right? i think that's a legitimate point, but it could make sense from a nutella!town perspective for her to come to the revelation that alison is mafia ~by~ poking holes in her perspective - it's possible that the confidence nutella is claiming to have about alison right now wouldn't have formed if she didn't go out of her way to do that

if i had to place my vote right now, it would probably be for alison over nutella, but i'm keeping an open mind. the associatives that are forming today are incredibly valuable regardless

Posted: **Wed Jan 27, 2021 12:26 am**

but re-reading I can see that's not the only meaning, just explaining what I got from it

Posted: **Wed Jan 27, 2021 12:27 am**

nutella wrote: ↑Wed Jan 27, 2021 12:26 am
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Jan 27, 2021 12:25 am This might be my most confident review so far -- I don't think Esooa and Grogu look like mafia teammates.
welp

either this is true or the team is exactly these two and jay loooool

By all means take a look and see if you feel differently. I'm just a guy.

Posted: **Wed Jan 27, 2021 12:28 am**

what's "Pepe Silvia"

Posted: **Wed Jan 27, 2021 12:29 am**

Esooa wrote: ↑Wed Jan 27, 2021 12:28 am what's "Pepe Silvia"

Spoiler: show

Posted: **Wed Jan 27, 2021 12:31 am**

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Jan 27, 2021 12:29 am
Esooa wrote: ↑Wed Jan 27, 2021 12:28 am what's "Pepe Silvia"

Spoiler: show

lmfao

Posted: **Wed Jan 27, 2021 12:31 am**

bruh it was a real read

Posted: **Wed Jan 27, 2021 12:35 am**

jay can you link me the alison esooa analysis? bc right now it feels to me like they're preserving each other pretty hard

Posted: **Wed Jan 27, 2021 12:36 am**

Hi, not caught up at all, but I think for the record, everyone who has t voted yet needs to vote

The Syndicate

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